Thursday, November 18, 2010

11/19/10 Steamroller Friday



JT's still got it.

We'll find out tomorrow if the bulls still have it.

Well, I'm a steamroller, baby
I'm bound to roll all over you
Yes, I'm a steamroller now, baby
I'm bound to roll all over you
I'm gonna inject your soul with some sweet rock 'n roll
And shoot you full of bear-busting rhythm and blues

105 comments:

  1. ChickZEN- That may have been your last post of the day, but now the sun's down and we await your first post tonight.

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  2. repost:
    CPZEN I like it. No really it seems very mainstream. Well within two std deviations of the norm. Kind of like Harriet. CRM is a good looking chart. I think i will put it on the watch list of 400. Make that 401 now. Alright this is ridiculous. I'm deleting all the watch lists and starting fresh. Really what is the max amount of stocks you can truly follow.

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  3. Nikkei opened above 10,100. Let's hope Asia gets it together...no, wait- let's hope Asia just GETS IT, and jacks the global indexes UP!

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  4. I always thought jt needed a better band behind him on this song...guitarist is seriously missing an opportunity to jam hard

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  5. I scanned through the 'Insider Transactions' and man I picked up CSCO today basically at option exercise prices. A week and a half after selling the last batch at 24.52. You could say I exercised an option to sell high and repurchase low.

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  6. Starting to see a few insider buys at BAC also. Around 12.50.

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  7. RB- I have 2 watch lists. One with about 20 stocks on it that I follow for swing trades and one with about 100 on it for scalps. But in all honesty, I'm really only good with about 15 of them.

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  8. yeah 2nd the media was touting those insider buys on BAC a week or so ago. $11.70 at the close...man, i guess i should be paying attention to this a little more. at some point they could be trading at $25-30/share and paying a 5% dividend (or $1.25-$1.50/share), which would be a 10% to 12% dividend on today's prices. that is, assuming they get through this tough period. i think buyers today will be happy in 2015. just like buyers in 1991 were happy in 1995.

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  9. My face is starting to hurt now.

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  10. Mark- There's a Mel Gibson movie called 'Man Without A Face.'

    http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1803242172/info

    If you need help coping with your disfigurement.

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  11. I have one of those professional association dinners to attend. Back later.

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  12. OK...Let's guess how many stitches I have. I have no idea, but it took him about 15 minutes to close it up. I'll buy a chicken dinner for the winner at the next TT get together!!! Have at it. I will answer any questions that might help with you guess.

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  13. My watch list isn't very long, I can only keep up with maybe 5.

    So Mark's in stitches, let's see, I would like to say it's an odd number but I'll take my first stab at four.

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  14. BTW, anything over 5 in conjunction with a waft of medicinal odors might qualify as dismemberment as opposed to disfigurement?

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  15. CP- Yep, that's the thing. I knew I should have had you tag along. I never thought of the medicinal pot angle. Crap....

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  16. Ben's running Chinese monetary policy again tonight: This has been a long time coming, go get 'em Ben!

    "By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke put aside traditional central bank niceties and launched a direct attack on the slow pace of China’s steps to strengthen its currency.

    In a speech prepared for a conference at the European Central Bank on Friday morning, Bernanke said that China’s decision to undervalue the yuan has essentially thrown a monkey wrench into the global economic recovery."

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-turns-up-heat-on-china-currency-policy-2010-11-18

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  17. TOF, Slide over and let Ben at the helm, fella!

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  18. BTW, if I'd known about this I would've bought a short ETF today...

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  19. Mark, glad to hear your procedure went well. How long is the incision? I'm trying to win a chicken dinner.

    I just knew your bequeathing UNG to TOF was going to make natty rally today.

    I've been home sick for a few days so I missed this weeks storage natty storage fun. I'm just now getting caught up on blog reading.

    David, I think Soc Gen's prices are too low for natty. The real reason I posted that article the other day was for their comments on the Empire Manufacturing survey.

    IFF we have a warm winter and we still have a lot of gas left in the ground by say the middle of Feb then prices could tank. Maybe that's what they are counting on.

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  20. I'm still feeling puny so I'm off to bed but I'll be pulling up the article CP posted first thing in the morn. I have a lot of questions about that.

    GOod trading tomorrow

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  21. Port- I don't know how long the incision is. But my face is swollen and I have a black eye now.

    Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!!

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  22. "puny"....I had to look that up. Hope you feel better.

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  23. All of those Cialis commercials make my head explode... Are you kidding me?

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  24. I think that is the purpose of that medication.

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  25. I am having trouble reducing my watchlist. I like them all. Thinking about buying 5 shares of each and make my broker watch them for me.

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  26. ASTM- I think I can comment about this a little as I follow BMRN closely. All phase 2 trials are about safety, problem here is that the last release seems to imply the ultimate goal of the treatment might fail. IE, saving a limb.

    I wouldn't touch it except for a scalp.

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  27. RB- If you buy 5 shares of all of your watch list your broker will be happy for the fees alone:)

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  28. Yeah, you know the product's good if the commercial alone can build your blood pressure, sorta like how you catch a buzz off a very expensive bottle of wine by just touching the bottle.

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  29. Since I have a job and need to do that more than watch squiggly lines. I decided I need to reduce to no more than 20. Here is this weeks. FCX WNR NBR JASO AXL RLD KEG ARM TICC ACTG THC SFLY MMR HMN VHC DLR CTRP SLW EBIX. First SIX I have starter positions last five I'm looking for possible short.The rest of the market can go to hell. These stocks are my whole world(self pep talk). It is all I care about. Except for all the trading topics member's plays. Go UNG CSCO GMO HEK RBY PAL PIR BYD PXP ect.. :)

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  30. "the ultimate goal of the treatment might fail. IE, saving a limb. "

    Considering the pharma industry spends more on advertising than product development, I'm pretty sure saving a limb is a goal secondary to making insane amounts of money.

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  31. PXP - Now there's one I haven't looked at in a while.

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  32. Someone lit a spark under all of these overseas markets. Talk about reversal.

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  33. CPZEN, Can you please give more than 16 hour notice between when you like a chart and when it has a 10% pop. Thanks.

    CRM

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  34. Man, nothings trading PM. Everyone left for the upcoming holiday?

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  35. from James K:
    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/market-sentiment-trading-strategies-us-economy/11/18/2010/id/31217

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  36. Added INTC/MSFT on premarket weakness newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4981 comments) on Fri, 11/19/2010 - 09:29 #74551
    In accumulation mode right now.

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  37. For several days the trading environment trends have been slowing their descents and showing preliminary signs of bottoming out. More movement toward the upside occurred yesterday as three of four near-term trend indicators headed north and two, the NBDX and SmarTrend(R) Ratio, both began climbing out of their oversold zones. This additional evidence of base- building coincides nicely with base-building by the DJIA at 11,100. If this near-term uptrend rotation continues, the DJIA should climb to meet resistance at 11,450 before the next serious uptrend pause.

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  38. If we hold this level, 1190 ish, I'd suspect we close green today.

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  39. 11450 sounds good. 12000 sounds better.

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  40. What are saying, Mark? The next TT get-together will be at KFC?

    I vote zero stitches.

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  41. I wonder why X is bucking the trend so hard today.

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  42. Liking the am sell-off. The more negative sentiment we can work off + the more weak hands we can shake off = the sooner we position the plane for takeoff.

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  43. Zagat rates KFC number one for fried chicken. Get up to speed man!

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  44. Added PIR at $8.97.

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  45. Liking the sell-off newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4982 comments) on Fri, 11/19/2010 - 10:30 #74557
    It allows the market to-

    (a) Work off negative sentiment, and
    (b) Shake off weak hands

    As soon as they remove those two wheel blocks, the plane can taxi out to the runway.

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  46. One day wonder for HEK? That's a lot of volume already though.

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  47. Shanghai - I'm surprised to see China closed green, unless tightening was announced after close, or they're betting against Ben?

    Markets don't like uncertainty. They shouldn't like pegging even more though, IMO...

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  48. HEK - Pretty beat up, but is that forward PE really 130?

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  49. Wonder if Ben's been holding off on his mission against the peg until the economy had progressed?

    I vote maybe yes.

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  50. sold the DGP too early. Bought reasonably well, but everything always spikes after I sell.

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  51. I can't imagine why China would want to raise rates in the face of a rising yuan instead of allowing the yuan to appreciate, if they were to relax or eliminate the peg the yuan could fly and erase their inflationary pressures.

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  52. Is QE2 a failure? Aren't these the same pundits who claimed we were going to see sub 10 cent gasoline prices for the next 20 years? LOL!

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  53. I suspect we'll retest the 50SMA but I'm not going to concentrate on shorting, I'm going to concentrate on adding if it happens.

    Seems like the safest trade for me.

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  54. PAL - Somebody's buying the heck out of this one...

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  55. Foot Locker - A dank sounding name if you ask me, like a cave where inedible mushrooms grow.

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  56. BSX breaking out. I bought some May $6 Calls at $1.19. I really like how it broke through it's 200 DMA, came back and retested it and bounced.

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  57. Argh, they're beating up leprechauns again today...

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  58. BSX - I like that company, any idea how much more upside potential is there?

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  59. Chicken - It was once a $25 or $30 stock I believe. Not saying it will get there but there is a lot of room on the upside. They're selling off unprofitable divisions and buying new companies with their raised capital. They just recently beat estimates in their latest quarter and the stock just broke thru the 200 DMA...on the surface things look good.

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  60. ATNI - Is it too early to think this one has finally bottomed? Hasn't lost much ground the past few sessions...

    TOF - Thanks, I suppose it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to think BSX could reach at least $10 in a relatively short period of time.

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  61. Google newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2305 comments) on Fri, 11/19/2010 - 13:14 #74578
    (flyonthewall)

    The number of mobile ads tracked by the Millennial Media mobile ad network and delivered to phones utilizing Google's (GOOG) Android increased 8% month-over-month in October, according to Millenial, Cnet reported. As a result, Android caught up with Apple's (AAPL) iOS operating system last month in terms of the number of mobile ads tracked by the ad network.

    FD:
    I think GOOG is one of the best large cap buys in the market now. I don't think people appreciate the power of their mobile Android operating system. I liken it to the early days of Microsoft's operating system for PCs. Eventually they will be making boatloads of cash off of system upgrades, office software, apps and the like. I think this will be a $1,000+ stock in a couple of years.

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  62. CADC - They really are tempting me to add here, I just know this thing's gonna pop up at any moment. Maybe not today, but soon.

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  63. GOOG - Wow, you're probably right, can the gap to $540 fill or are we looking at the last chance all-aboard signal?

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  64. On google I agree. They are on the verge of total communication domination. They are going to take business from, telecom, cable,network tv, cloud, wireless,microsoft and a bunch of others. Monetizing their services will be key, because most are free of charge.

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  65. Just bought 250 more shares of WATG at $8.42. If this level doesn't hold, then the next stop is below $8, and I'll start selling $7.50 puts on WATG.

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  66. Today is playing out in the worst possible way for my November options. FCX is hovering just above $100, implying that my $100 put will expire worthless. At the same time, USO is pinned to $35, implying that my remaining two USO $35 puts will also expire worthless. Maximum pain indeed...

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  67. PIGIS this and that, when does California et-al finally hit the wires in a big way or is it priced in already?

    I kinda doubt it's fully priced in...

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  68. Chicken - Not sure on the short term for GOOG but longer term it's definitely a buy to me...

    PIR off at $9.23. Still holding half but may get rid of the rest. We close red I think.

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  69. Long TZA at $20.33. Closing out my SPY / International Index Funds at the close. I ain't getting a warm fuzzy feeling for some reason, other than a few stocks here and there.

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  70. Long some SPY Nov 26 $122 Puts at $2.12...my spidey sense is on high alert for some reason...not sure why. Will be about 80% cash at close. The rest will be short.

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  71. "I ain't getting a warm fuzzy feeling for some reason."

    That's because you don't have gas (UNG)...:)

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  72. S1 for TZA today is 20.13 if you care, bro.

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  73. Good lord, how did you guys sit through this all day?

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  74. Post-operative home patient care:

    Mark, prior to turning in tonight, you might want to check and make sure nobody has posted a "Do not resuscitate" poster over your headboard. ;)

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  75. Scratch that...I'm still going to hold on to my BSX. I'm planning on scaling into that one longer term...

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  76. PCX - Normally, coal mining is a lucrative business, I'm not sure what's happened to change that dynamic in the US, probably the same forces at work that have hampered our economy for two decades running?

    Here's an example of how lucrative unfettered coal mining can be:

    "Once poor, Ordos has been blessed by the commodity boom: It has one-sixth of all of China’s coal reserves, and one-third of is natural gas reserves. Its gross domestic product has grown a “staggering” 25% a year over the last eight years, Lu reports, more than twice as fast as the national average. The city may well be the richest in China: Its per-capita GDP of $21,600 is more than twice than of Beijing, and is likely under-reported."

    http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/05/12/revisiting-chinas-empty-city-of-ordos/

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  77. I've identified the cause of my negative side:
    *Muni bonds: they have recovered a bit but I get the sense that they've got another leg down. I saw some schedule that showed the rates paid on muni bonds this week versus last and the jump in yield was pretty tremendous. I'm trying to find out where I found this. Add this to the ongoing issues in Europe and it just makes me pause. Not about to go full bore bear but I think it makes sense to lighten up here.

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  78. ATNI - Finally it appears the avalanche may have subsided, I shoulda waited another week for my entry.

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  79. Well, base metals (DBB) are off substantially this week, so there's but one canary showing signs of excessive sulfur dioxide exposure...

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  80. Today reminded me of scenes from a Larry Potter movie.

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  81. Imbalances...

    BUY- C/BAC/WFC/JPM/APA/SWN/DVN/CHK/PXP/IBM/HUN/LVS/MGM/WMT/MCD/GD/MON/GE/MOS/ECUXF...

    SELL- I couldn't find one.

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  82. I just saw that 200 shares of HNUZD did get sold today at my limit of $6.50 (I wanted to sell 250 at that price but only got a partial fill). Hopefully UNG opens on Monday with a gap up and the remaining 50 shares get sold at an even better price. :)

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  83. David - Will your broker charge you another trading fee to close that partial fill?

    Mine would.

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  84. Even though I have a large position in WATG already, I decided to place a sell limit order at $1 for January $7.50 puts. Whenever I sold $7.50 puts on WATG during the last year, they would always expire, so selling them once again doesn't seem like a bad idea.

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  85. Who is your broker, CP? I don't think this has ever happened to me in the past with any of my brokers.

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  86. CP- Schwab wouldn't. You can even change the price after a partial fill.

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  87. It would have to be a GTC order of course.

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  88. ASTM upgraded??? today by Roth. PT raised from 3.50 to 6.60. Hun??

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  89. My broker is BACML, I'm pretty sure they charge a second fee on a partial fill if it extends into preceding sessions, even for GTC.

    Okay, I'll stop bitching about my broker now... was just curious.

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  90. Catch up to you cats when I get to Manteca. Ciao.

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  91. So David - I did finally get around to reading that Hussman article today and his evidence certainly points to a significant underperformance for equities markets for the next 10 years. I calculated a return of 4.54% annually for the next 10 years using his valuation model, which is the lowest reading ever in the period from 1945 to 1997 (he likes to exclude the period from 1997 to 2007 because those were bubble years where valuation norms were thrown out the window). I think this, along with the ongoing issues in Europe which will most definitely spread to Portugal, and the municipal bond fears continuing, warrants a wholesale risk aversion.

    Part of the problem I have with his valuation model, though, is that for the entire period from 2003 to 2007 his valuation model suggested subpar returns yet any trader could have made a boatload of money in that period by being long.

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  92. Ha, Republican party is suggesting the FED charter be changed back to the original charter which included just monetary policy and excluded employment.

    So where's the Republican plan to combat today's unemployment issues?

    The rise of China's economy is a great milestone in the history of mankind but must become reciprocating at some point.

    Drop the peg!

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  93. "Part of the problem I have with his valuation model, though, is that for the entire period from 2003 to 2007 his valuation model suggested subpar returns yet any trader could have made a boatload of money in that period by being long."

    TOF, you probably meant to say "any INVESTOR could have made a boatload of money in that period by being long." We are not investors here -- we are traders, and for my style of trading (scaling in on the way down, scaling out on the way up) the next 10 years in the stock market should be very profitable, as it will have PLENTY of peaks and valleys. I would not have done nearly as well during a steady uptrend, as I would have been simply left behind. So I am really looking forward to the next 10 years of flat market with a lot of volatility in between (the expected 10-year returns should be adjusted down from the 5% implied by the simple P/E ratios because the profit margins are at an all time high now, and profit margins are VERY mean reverting over the period of 10 years).

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  94. Since I sold some HNUZD today, I decided to place a buy limit for 400 shares of UNG at $5.80, which I sold yesterday at $5.80 (that is, I want to reload my previous UNG position). A large UNG position will do wonders for one's portfolio now, since it will imply a LARGE tax rebate (the UNG partnership lost a lot of money this year due to contango, and since any UNG holders will be treated as temporary partners on the K-1 form provided by UNG, they will share UNG losses and hence will get a tax break). Last year I got my tax liability reduced by around $1500 after I entered my UNG K-1 into TurboTax, even though I held only 1000 shares and only for a few months.

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  95. Hi and happy friday night and pre turkey day!!

    What are your ideas for christmas, hanukah, new years get together for our group??

    :)

    I can do some research into. let's first decide on a city - SF, Tahoe, Marin - any other destination nominations?

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  96. So I decided right before the close of trading in afterhours to open up a large position in TZA. I kind of like this set up only because I will have a clear stop out point (in reference to the S&P). It will be at around 1210 on a close, so it's about a 1% move up in the markets which would be a move of about 3%, which I can live with.

    In looking around at the other markets, there have been a lot of blowoff tops with sharp reversals as well as clear head and shoulders formations forming. Seeing the action in the Hang Seng, Shanghai, and Sensex suggests that maybe people got too ahead of themselves and will be pulling back risk.

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  97. vb - I'd love to but with my wedding coming up in January, that's not too likely. sounds like fun though.

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  98. tof,

    I got the same feeling but took no action.

    Plan b, is work on our holiday party. are you coming ?

    I think think CP and FF and kyle and all the "silent readers" should make an effort to attend this very important event"!n

    :)

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