Green Close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4992 comments) on Tue, 11/23/2010 - 09:05 #74770 JMO
Weather and natty for the winter posted on 11/22/10 at 5:00 ESThttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2228993520101122Here's the headline"WSI sees cold US Northern winter, high gas demand"But the info below are some of the important points in the article"Overall, WSI forecast total U.S. heating demand in December-February will be 2 percent to 10 percent less than last year and within 1 percent of the 30-year averages.Kostas said "With two straight months of warmer-than-normal temperatures and lower heating demand in the major demand centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, supplies are expected to be plentiful and gas prices subdued in February." "The colder regions in February are not expected to provide enough heating demand to offset the decrease from the warmer regions. With record inventories to start the heating season, and two straight months of lower-than-normal aggregate weather related demand, inventory levels are expected to be high and gas prices subdued heading into March," Kostas noted."port
Thanks for the nice comments guys. Now that the season's over, you'll be spared from photos...We'll there's indoor soccer starting soon..:)))
2nd- There might not be enough traders around today to turn this baby green.
Sold everything, including gold longs...bought a few SPY calls, $115 calls expiring Friday and $117 calls expiring Dec, at $4.0 and $3.28 average. Otherwise, mostly in cash.
My data feeds are all F'ed up. Crap.
Another thought on NG.Today is the third day of below freezing temps, snow and ice in the Seattle region. BEFORE Thanksgiving it is highly unusual.In the northern hemisphere of planet earth, the weather moves from left to right, west to east, which means the rest of the country is going to get colder than a witches tits this winter.That will mean using more NG to heat homes and businesses. This is my call based on historical norms (we rarely if ever get this cold this early) and predictions by the weather services that we will have a colder than normal winter, which appears to be playing out. 10F outside with nasty windchill......schools closed.FF
FF- Same thing in the Sierra. I was hearing reports last night that no one can remember this much snow before Thanksgiving.
BTW, I'll bet it's colder than shit in N. (Chick) Corea, and this is crazy Kim's usual ploy to get free handouts while he's killing his populace with insanity. Can't he just hold a sign on a freeway offramp like everyone else? A sign like I saw the other day might work...."convicted felon, can't get a job, please help". For Kim something like, "spent money on nukes to wipe out my neighbors, need heating oil and food for family, help or I shoot". FF
Long BYD at $9.0
Long GS at $160.4, long more SPY $115 Nov calls at $3.7
wow, went from 5% long to 80% long in a couple of minutes. Playing the Turkey day bounce.
160 is a great level to take a shot at GS. I read a few articles last night about the FBI investigation. If what I'm reading is correct, and this is about channel checks and "expert networks" I don't see the issue.
TIE - making an up-turn???
yeah, Mark - I have to imagine that this is going to affect GS's stock less than the issue back in April. It could very well have already hit it as much as it will.
Kyle- I'm long 1/3 position in TIE @ 17.44.
TIE - had a C&H @ 17.17 lvl & spike to 17.19
spike to 17.29 not 17.19
so much for the bounce...
The margin between green and red seems to have been determined, I'm doubtful about a green close.It's supposed to be near 70* here today, the record is somewhere close to 80* though.
SPY - Going for the 50SMA, have to watch and see if it fails I may get my chance to add.
That is, I probably won't be adding if the 50 support holds.
I'm down about 8% from my portfolio high now and 55% above where I started two and a half years ago, can't add too early.
Well, looks like it's turning up, false alarm?
RBY - CB said: "I think RBY mgmt is hoping for a good offer, and in the meantime, just keep moving towards proving out things, and building the mine if no bids appear. The mine is already partially there, so its going to be cheap to build, like $150 mm or less, and should have cash cost sub $300. They have no debt and no big infrastructure or environmental type problems so far as I know. Canada's best mine is right next to it."Hmm, sounds like a no brainer, what was the story on McEwen(or whoever the big stakeholder was that supposedly dumped) selling, some kind of head fake?I guess I have some sort of mistrust of Canadians, they seem to concentrate on misleading folks south of their border...
A few things happened for me this morning. First, the sell short stop limit order I placed for 100 shares of FCX last night was triggered at $99.77. Second, JJS hit my buy to cover limit order at $65.30 for the 50 shares I shorted at $75.30, giving me a $500 profit. Who said that one shouldn't short parabolically rising securities? :)Yesterday I thought about adding a little more WATG (250 shares), but then decided not to do that. Right now, however, I saw that a buy limit order for 250 shares at $8.35 was actually executed yesterday. Oh well. Still waiting for someone to buy from me 20 January $7.50 puts. Finally, I couldn't keep myself from reloading TBT, now that it has dropped a full $1 below the level where I sold it last week. So 15 min ago I reloaded 1/2 of the original position (100 shares) at $35.41.
FCX made a lower high at $102 yesterday, relative to its high at $108 on November 11. So I have just placed a buy to cover stop limit order for my 100 short shares of FCX at $102.50/$103, for if FCX breaks out above that lower high, its chart will stop looking like it is in a downtrend.
David- TOF was asking you last night what was story on ECU.
Stinky on CADC @ 3.94.
Douglas KassI am a large buyer of yahoo $$
BORN- Make or break time...
Mark, I made 3 posts about ECU last night...
Doug Kass -- Fast Times...http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=851&catid=15
What, no newer post, yet?nobody wass going to even try to buy RBY as long as McEwen was owning 1/3, and I think he wanted to do a no premium merger with his other mining co's, which would have been a disaster for RBY shareholders, IMO, so as I see it, it was good he sold because it opened up the opportunity for GG or AEM or ABX to pony up for it...
RBY - Okay, I guess if the pending breakout is proven then something north of $4.70 would be the next logical target.
Has to get over $4.35. If it holds that, target moves north of $5.50
target will end up being determined by 43-101 results, which may well be partial at first.
IRE - Lopped off another 22% today, incredible!
HSY - Green today.
I dunno guys, austerity measures seem to have failed from my perspective of Euro-zone bank stocks...
JJG - Green as well, sitting on lower trend line like HSY...Is metals weakness a consolidation event? Kinda looks that way.
The price of WATG puts is creeping up too slowly and I am getting impatient. So instead of waiting for someone to buy from me 20 WATG January $7.50 puts for $1, I split that order in two parts: 10 puts at $0.9 and 10 puts at $1.10. Let's see if the first one gets filled today (the ask price on those puts is $0.9 now).
DBB - Seems to have already taken it's hit, might retest 200SMA? I'd be surprised but pleased to see a failure and considerably lower prices (allowing me to add), I think we're getting close to finding out which way the market's headed into EOY.
Kyle- Now that was a nice little C&H with confirming volume just now in TIE. Let's see if it holds. (3m chart)
CP- EOY...I kinda agree.
All right, I got tired of waiting and just sold 10 WATG January $7.50 puts for $0.85 and then moved up my other sell limit order for 10 more such puts to $1.15.
Mark - Yep, but no follow through. Was hoping for more of an up-swing like Fri & yday.URZ??
You crack me up David. GL...
Yeah, but it does seem to be some interest and traders afraid to miss a move. I don't think it's the MM cause the volume on the up ticks is too large.URZ/UREE...Can't play those being away from the market as much as I am.
TIE- Looking at a 180 day chart, I still really like it at these levels. Stop @ 16.70 ish.
All right. GTC on C @ 4.04 for a LT play.
Imbalances....It's ugly on the financials...SELL- V/AXP/HIG/C/WFC/JPM/BAC/MS.
bought some UCOIf the fear trade subsides, the dollar will drop and oil will rise, IMO. gold is too high in range to buy here, IMO, and could also sell back down if fear subsides.
Ha!...I found one buy....BUY- MGM.
CB- I agree on UCO. I'm long from a few days ago @ 9.84.
Long SPY index fund at close; long STT at $42.1.
Closed my GS long at $158 before close for about a 1% loss. Decided I'd rather be in STT if I'm going to be in a financial.
I'm warming up to holding BAC longer term. You gotta think that in 5 years we'll look back at this price and wonder what people were thinking. I understand all of the negatives and can't rationalize buying here but I think it just makes sense to start buying....
Reuters- WATG rev. view 2011 $445M.
If UNG can clear this level, 6.63 looks good.
well, UCO got stopped out fastcan't trade as market if you don't know what is going to kill you.taking UCO off my screens forever
removed everything but gold and miners from all screens
CB: UCO + UNG = gray hair
TOF -- don't dismiss UNG too fast. There are times when holding UNG means swimming against the current (August-October) and then there are times when holding UNG means swimming upstream (November-January). There is no contango in UNG right now whatsoever (in fact, there is slight backwardation), and so all previous negative allegations about it do not apply now.
Mark, direct TA can be used on UNG only while it is tracking the same futures contract. It started tracking January futures only last week, and so you shouldn't even look more than one week back at the UNG price chart. Instead, let's look at the January futures chart. What is the next resistance level you see there?
God bless you for sticking with that (UNG). You might be able to trade it for 10% or so but i see nothing but a downward sloping chart through thick and thin.
TOF: just like I told Mark, the daily UNG price chart going back more than 2 weeks is meaningless right now. The fact that new exploration methods of oil shales have reduced the gas price is an issue of the past -- it is silly to drive forward using the rear view window. The real question is: what factors can drive the NG futures below $4 vs. above $5? A BIG headwind for NG prices was the fact that companies kept producing NG despite very low prices because of the hedges they had in place. A large part of those hedges will expire in 2010 and the remaining ones will expire in 2011. So if you look forward through the *windshield*, then the NG future is not nearly as grim as its past.
HRBN - Yet another Chinese stock smacked down pretty good today.
EBAY - I think I'll have to start legging in if that gap to $26 ever gets filled.
David - I guess the question is: is UNG the best vehicle to take advantage of Nat Gas? I agree that it's probably smart to be buying into Nat Gas related companies. But is HEK or CHK or some other company a better investment to take advantage of pent up demand of Nat Gas? Clearly, XOM and the bigger players are taking advantage of low prices in the Nat Gas sector because they see a competitive threat to oil
I see your question now, TOF. At $4 January futures (with UNG at $5.50 last week), NG was selling below the production cost (only because many companies were almost fully hedged for 2010 at much higher prices and so they could afford to keep extracting gas), which was a clearly unsustainable situation. So last week at $5.50, UNG had almost no downside and a VERY HIGH probability of having at least one significant spike up over the next couple of months due to a spell of cold weather. So it seemed like a better investment to me than most companies. Right now, however, I am not so sure, especially since SWN was smacked down pretty hard today. Until today, however, SWN was WAY overbought in the short term as compared to UNG. So buying a little SWN right now (after hours) and scaling in until it hits $30 would be a good way of making money on the NG sector.