Tuesday, November 30, 2010

11/30/10 Now 100% Long

Now 100% Long newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5003 comments) on Tue, 11/30/2010 - 09:43 #75071
Positions spread into AA/BAC/CSCO/GE/INTC/MSFT/PFE/XOM + OAKBX.

I like the pricing here and now.

86 comments:

  1. All cash and metal here. Not even considering buying...

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  2. If we bounce off of 1,173 again today in a significant way, will this finally be the last time we go down here before going higher?

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  3. I'm re-loading the centrifuges.
    URRE/URZ


    FF

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  4. DO is starting to look interesting.

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  5. I hope your wearing protective underwear FF :)

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  6. Re: Julian Assange - MAN OF THE YEAR newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5004 comments) on Tue, 11/30/2010 - 10:00 #75074 (in reply to #75072)
    I agree with Grym. (For once? ;)

    There is no excuse for 'collateral damage-' I see nothing noble in it. Sacrifices for the greater good are fine when made voluntarily, whereas getting blindsided is just unacceptable. Aren't we the culture that strives for 'No man left behind?' There are better ways to fight for transparency.

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  7. Cheapybob - re exit on RBY - I would sell 70% yesterday and remaining 30% at open today.
    ==================
    for some reason my post yesterday at 6:30pm (3:30pm blog time) did not show up. CB if you want some feedback on my thoughts, I can try to post later tonight: yesterday's post. It was a bit lengthy.
    ------
    Congrats - that was an excellent swing trade. I did not have a position. I explained why yesterday - went on a November vacation and held basically cash and Oil/Gas positions.

    CI

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  8. CADC - David, good luck, I think an $8 target is fathomable but I'm likely to exit prior.

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  9. MCOX - TOF, is one like this in your bag of tricks?

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  10. Bought 1 x CRM Jan $140 Put at $8.85 and 1 x NFLX Dec 18 $190 Put at $5.20 to hedge my longs in BAC, IBKC, BYD, and SPY. I think there is a good chance CRM goes down to the $120 level. I don't understand how people can rationalize the valuation on those two, but I'm giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt with my position size.

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  11. Chicken - MCOX: Now that is one ugly IPO.

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  12. Bidding CADC @ 3.83 again. Where's that crazy MM when I need him. Come on man, snap out of it!

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  13. NFLX: Just got an e-mail saying Comcast is trying to block NFLX to it's internet customers.

    FF

    PS: No worries Mark, I'm sporting BOS. (ask 2nd, he invented them)

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  14. FF- I thought those were for trading X? :)

    All right guys.....GL!

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  15. Wish I knew what the half-life of this U trade was going to be. I could easily pay the bills for a long time with something like this.
    Another 6% on URRE and about 4% on URZ today.
    I don't see how these stay $3-4 stocks forever.
    SOMEONE is betting on more nuclear power.

    FF

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  16. More nuclear power - Sounds like a good bet to me, especially if new designs completely eliminate the waste issue and net total including mining/processing ore was carbon friendly as the industry claims.

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  17. Added 1 more NFLX put at $4.95.

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  18. MCOX - I knew you mentioned an interest in internet commerce start-ups. ;)

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  19. REDF - Seems to be stabilizing/consolidating?

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  20. GMO - Water permit hearing is scheduled for 12/9 in Carson city, probably driving today's interest.

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  21. Added one last NFLX put at $4.4. Average is now $4.85. So I have 3 puts for about $1,500 including commissions. Let's see how this one works out. I'm doing it because I suspect we will see a -$20 day very soon and I'd like to partake in that movement. I know fully well I could lose all of this money.

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  22. weird...the price of NFLX has gone up $1 since I bought my last put but the price of the put has risen.

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  23. I lied...added one more last put at $4.5. Average is now $4.76.

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  24. NFLX - I can just see the sell the news event once the FCC steps in to enforce movie downloads.

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  25. wow...now i know why people don't short/buy puts in these high fliers. this thing has ripped $6 higher in no time.

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  26. I bought 2 more NFLX puts at $3.7 so my average is now $4.4. my at risk capital is now $2,600.

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  27. Ok, sorry about bombarding the board with NFLX posts. I double checked and my put position is actually $3,500 and my average price is $4.347 and its currently down 3.5%. That spike to $206 was a move up of $10 from the low. Volume ramped up in that spike and volume for the day is quite high. I suspect (hope?) that this spike was a blowoff short term top and the stock closes below $200.

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  28. BTW - FCX sure looks like a buy right here.

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  29. NANO - still on the 200sma, that fails and the gap up from $10 might fill.

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  30. "Copper, Heading for Fifth Monthly Gain, May Climb on Shortage Speculation (Maria Kolesnikova, Bloomberg News - Nov 30, 2010 7:05 AM PT)

    A supply restricted secular bull market appears to be underway for the red metal. As reported by Bloomberg, rising prices are expected for the next several years, "Copper will exceed $11,000 [$4.99/lb] by 2013 because of supply shortages, researcher GFMS Ltd. said yesterday."

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  31. SCCO - Not so much yet though.

    It's funny, Republicans didn't want anything to do with the economy until now that it looks like their doom and gloom strategy has failed.

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  32. Today's action tells me that if we're to go higher, it's not on the backs of high flying tech companies, but rather on the backs of the financials and materials. XLB looks good right here.

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  33. Good morning! I just bought 1000 shares of CADC (a small starter position) at $3.92. (I see Mark is trying to be cute again, with his CADC bid at $3.83 :)). Also, I placed a buy limit at $3.70 for 500 more shares and then at $3.50 for 500 more shares. I think it is OK to place buy limit orders at some great entry points below the current price, but Mark, you have to dip your toe in the water first!

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  34. I currently have 150 shares of TBT. Instead of buying more on today's drop, I decided instead to sell one January $34 put for $1.62. In this way, if TBT just oscillates in place for 6 weeks, the time decline in this put will offset the evaporation of TBT due to it being an ultrashort. If TBT drops below $34 soon, then I'll sell a January $33 put on it.

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  35. Stopped out of my longer term BAC calls at 5.5% loss...still holding stock. NFLX is strong today despite 2 significant attempts to sell the stock off. Volume is very high versus daily average.

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  36. TOF, I think you piled up your NFLX puts way too fast -- I would be doing that not more often than once per day, allowing NFLX to rise much higher, say to $230. These parabolic moves always go to absurd highs, and there is a VERY good chance NFLX rises to $220 or even $230 before collapsing.

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  37. My sell short stop limit order on CRM did get triggered today at $141.95 for 100 shares. I am placing buy to cover stop limit at $146.25/$146.50, just above the recent high.

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  38. Looks like my intuition was correct about WATG yesterday -- its decline has indeed flattened out and it was ready for a bounce. Let's see if today's bounce will have legs to go above $9, so as to hit some of my sell limit orders. :)

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  39. My 300-shares SLV short is not doing well today -- SLV is up by almost $1 and I am down $300 for today... However, this is just a gimmick! The market gods, who want to screw me on SLV, forgot that I have 60K shares of ECU.TO which is up $0.06 today, giving me a gain of $3600. :))

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  40. CI, yes, I'd have done better to sell it that way...

    Sorry you weren't in it, but I understand.

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  41. David - You're definitely right on NFLX - my timing is lousy; however, I'm putting a manageable amount at risk with the thought that there could be a big payoff in a short manner of time should the stock gap lower. The risk of this drop has increased pretty much daily as the stock has risen exponentially. The stock is up:

    1 day: +3.66%
    5 day: +9.49%
    1 mth: +18.8%
    3 mth: +67.5%
    6 mth: +85.5%
    1 yr: +251.7%

    I don't mind taking risks on a day like this, which appears to me to be the signs of a blowoff top (i.e., volume way above average on a big move up after a huge move up over the past year). So I'm throwing my stake in the ground and am willing to eat 50% losses if it happens because that would be $1,700 which is not a huge dent. The valuation of $10.5 Billion is quite ludicrous in my mind based on any metric.

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  42. PS: I've been reloading some here at high 5.70's.

    It will likely be a smallish position for me (under 30k), and short term. I saw huge shorting on it today from what appear to me to be small shorts, and the specialist is buying at 5.84 and below from the looks of it.

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  43. TOF -- I didn't mean that your timing was lousy. In fact, your entry point seems excellent. What I wanted to say is that you spent your ammo way too fast, and if tomorrow NFLX rises to $220, then you won't be able to take advantage of those even higher prices (i.e., to add more puts).

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  44. DBB - I'd like to see a close better than $21.42
    XLB needs to stay above $35.17

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  45. As for CRM, on a second thought, I decided to lower my buy stop limit to $142.25/$142.50, essentially to my entry price into this short. In the past, 90% of the time the stock touched my entry point it would actually rise higher and if I closed my short when my entry level was touched, I could have re-opened it at better prices. Alternatively, if I get faked out (i.e., if CRM rises to $143 and then drops down again), then I'll re-open my short with a greater confidence about the up move in CRM being over.

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  46. Watching the floor close in crude.

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  47. Sold my BYD at $8.95 that I bought at $9.05 avg. Sold my BAC at $11.10. Bottom has dropped out. Bought some $28.45 and BGZ at $10.68. Much like when the market keeps pushing up against a resistance level and breaks through, it seems that the late day negative reversal that seems to be going on will lead to an ultimate downward break of the 1,173 level. I'm about 30% long now in STT, which I forgot I hold, and SPY, about 4% short in my CRM/NFLX puts and BGZ/TYP holdings and the rest is in cash. If I had to bet, we're going down.

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  48. David, Mark picked up some CADC a couple days ago, I'm looking to add at a cheaper price b/c I already have a full position.

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  49. David- I have 2000 shares of CADC @ 4.06 from a few days ago. I screwed up on my order which was supposed to be 3.95 and I think I typed in 4.95, as if filled on the close @ 4.06. I'm looking for 2 more slots @ 2000 shares each.

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  50. NFLX short. No share available @ Schwab to short. I hope you don't get caught in a squeeze TOF.

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  51. I swear I need to just sit and wait for the inevitable sharp pullback in PIR and then buy. The market has presented so many short term trading opportunities in that stock over the past several months and it always shrugs off sell offs.

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  52. Mark - I'm already in the middle of the NFLX short squeeze man. There is currently 30% of the float short the stock. Anyone that has shorted it has gotten their head chopped off. It's a total beast defying any valuation logic. CNBC had some guy on a week or two ago saying the company is a buy out candidate. I'm not sure what he is expecting...someone to buy the company for 200 times earnings? I doubt you can justify how you can get a good return on your money for that valuation.

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  53. BAC- Today's action has to be related to the wikileak crap. F'em. I'm looking to fill out that position, and will be happy to do it if they can take it down to the 10.80 level.

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  54. Anyone buying eBay here? I just started a position at $29.25.

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  55. TOF- Yeah, just hoping their isn't an insane spike that cooks your puts. Not that where it is now is not insane enough ;) GL, but you don't need it. Your a great trader.

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  56. TOF- I'm still looking to get in EBAY Brazilian look a like MELI.

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  57. UCO- Let's see if it can get into the 10.50 area.

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  58. Mark - no worries man. If I had a $20k put position on the stock then I would be crapping my pants. I have a whopping $600 in unrealized losses right now on my position, which is offset by my huge $15 in unrealized gains on CRM!

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  59. Let's see if MMR can get into the 14.50 area.

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  60. sold the RBY reload for 5.89-90 for another $3000 profit for the day

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  61. interesting...i've never seen a formula for RSI:
    http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/6-Overbought-Stocks-To-Watch-CRM-MAT-TIF-MWW-HRL1130.aspx?partner=YahooSA

    CRM is on the list.

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  62. guys - this action seems reallly bearish to me man. i've been watching these european banks (DB, USB, STD) and there is no bounce in any of them. i'm clearing the longs at the close and waiting for clarity.

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  63. Imbalances...

    BUY- PXP/HK

    SELL- GMO/RIG/MS/CHK

    All I could find.

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  64. 40% short, 60% cash now. I don't like how the market is trading at all.

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  65. Added some more BGZ and TYP at 10.66 and 28.5, respectively, right before the close.

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  66. Well, the cash gain at least buffered my slight loss today...

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  67. Today's close on the S&P was below the recent low from last week, which marks the first time in a while we have seen a series of lower lows.

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  68. The only long I held on to was my IBKC, which I bought yesterday at $50.03. The only reason I'm holding on to it is because I have decided to build up a long term position in this company. I really really like the long term prospects for the company and think it could be a large regional bank a la USB in 10 years. I have already determined to set aside a certain amount of money every other month to put into that stock. That is the only long term long that I feel comfortable getting behind for now. Although eBay is a close second, but it doesn't pay dividends and it won't go up 10 fold like IBKC could.

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  69. Wow. About 1/5 of NFLX's shares outstanding were traded today. About $2.3 Billion worth of shares traded today in the stock. That seems lke a high amount, no?

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  70. NFLX - Yep, up on 2x volume. Isn't that a potential sign of distribution?

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  71. Bought some BGU after hours at $58.7 to counter my puts in case we get a gap up open.

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  72. CADC - Hmm, today might've been a good day to get in based on the price action...

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  73. Man, I can't get over how ugly the hood looks on the Chevy Volt...

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  74. It's gonna look exponentially uglier when the car stops moving a block away from home...

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  75. Okay, so will China tighten again when their PMI number is announced today?

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  76. I like trades that have a swing in them. Although I was out of the PM sector, I did go over to the Oil and Gas sector. I like the oil sands and some positions I took for your interest.

    Most of these trades were entered into at the end of September 2010:

    ATH.to - ATHABASCA OIL SANDS CORP - up 37.0%
    HSE.to - HUSKY ENERGY INC COMMON - down 2.7%
    ECA.to - ENCANA CORP - up 0.7%
    COS.UN.to - CANADIAN OIL SANDS TR NEW UNIT - up 12.8%

    To get into these positions I sold NOT.to - NORONT RESOURCES LTD for a 14.3% gain - held this for 2 weeks from Sept 15 to Sept 29.

    So my RBY moment for now is ATH. The stock market is a treasure trove of finds.

    HNU.to/HND.to is the missing 6th comment. Instead of the bigger swing, I am just being satisfied with 5 or less days of holding for a 5% gain and getting out. I like this because I can watch the short term North American weather forecast maps and try to judge the movement by the predicted temperatures 5 days hence. I see CB you did this with RBY today with your day trade. Keep the trades very short-term.

    NOT.to - I think I will be back into this stock later this week for another hopeful move up. The stocks in the mining sector are so irrational lately. I hope as traders move from stock to stock and bid them up they will eventually get into this one.

    I am glad to see everyone's stock picks and how you are managing them. Seems everyone is ending the month with gains and steak dinners.

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  77. I thought I'd never hear about this, it's about time. To me it's not about revenue though, it's about wasted energy and green house contribution:

    "GAO: Lost natural gas costs gov't $23M per year- AP

    The government is losing tens of millions of dollars in potential royalties from energy companies that let immense volumes of natural gas escape into the atmosphere, congressional investigators said in a new report.:

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