Re: "On March 26, a NORTH Korean newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4998 comments) on Fri, 11/26/2010 - 11:12 #74915 (in reply to #74906) 'I am looking to buy stocks today on the dip if the S&P 500 hits around 1180.'
After wading through the sorry headlines out there, I would say the above comment is most intelligent opinion I've read this morning.
Re: "On March 26, a NORTH Korean newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4999 comments) on Fri, 11/26/2010 - 11:21 #74916 (in reply to #74914) Jong-il is clearly a man in pain. I would hate to be the guy saddled with the task of wandering the halls of his mind in order to lead him out (although I don't think it would be a hopeless goal). If we go back to an indelible rule of any game that homo sapiens engage in- 'It's all mental-' what we have here is the acting-out of yet another tortured soul.
Thanksgiving newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5000 comments) on Fri, 11/26/2010 - 11:39 #74917 Rather than get caught up in the Korean conflict, we should be looking forward to a global economic recovery, growing pains and all. Mankind has come a long way, even within my own lifetime. I spend a lot of time reminiscing about the sixties and seventies, but would I really want to return to that era? No. The world today is healthier, more educated, more enlightened, and in general at higher standards of living and longer life expectancies.
Looks like we might be needing some uranium for something. Maybe to fuel the new Ford Fusion? My sincere hope is that it isn't wasted on 'therapy' for KJI. Remember the desperate kids (bullies) in class that used to act up to get attention? The world hasn't altered one bit how it reacts to them though. These people are tortured (in one form or another) and in turn torture others, then finally they are tortured one last time, usually in a violent death or in prison. KJI is an example of one that finds himself the leader of an entire country, but his craziness continues and his countrymen/classmates are tortured beyond belief. The last tortured saddist we dealt with was Saddam. (what a spelling coincidence) He met with the typical end. What a sad world we live in.
Still holding URRE/URZ
BTW, beware of black Friday BS: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/please-santa-let-this-be-the-last-christmas-in-america-thats-supposed-to-save-the-u-s-economy/
How's the little guy enjoying it? Your home town has a division 3 club that seems very well run. I talked to a few of the coaches at a tourny in Sacto. They were staying at the same hotel as our team. Good people.
I'm beginning to think the early Nov rally was the last hurrah just prior to EOY portfolio rebalancing and tax loss selling, not anticipating much if any upside till January 2011.
CB- Just curious, not trying to pry...How do you get in touch with the specialist for a given stock and how are the fees arranged for him to execute the trades?
TD Ameritrade does it for premier accounts as part of their service...
Its what keeps the big account there. Otherwise I'd be sitting at the PC for a week selling 200 shares at a time, which is what I did before. My other brokers don't offer anything equivalent. Just imagine having 1.1 mm shares of GSS and deciding its time to sell..
Believe it or not, there have been probably 15 stocks in the past 8 yrs where I've gone 100+% long on them, and those are the ones where I typically made 6 figure gains, not the trading. I only had one of them I sold because I decided the company was going to leave shareholders screwed, and I dumped it for a $125,000 loss, it dropped from $4 where I sold to 19 cents from there before it went under.
Its a big risk. RBY isn't that bad because I only have 1/3 the trading accounts in it, and they are only 25% of assets, now.
Mark - You know I've got 10 shares of YHOO, at around $24 I think I paid. I'm not sure what the plan was there, I don't pay much attention to it but if a specialist can unwind it at a gain, that would be a nice trick!
Yes, I definitely need to switch to TD, this might be the right time to do that.
Looks like Oberweis panicked out of most of their Chinese equities at or near the bottom, both CADC and ONP for sure, probably a bunch more. Sept 30, is when the selling in CADC subsided, the downtrend line going back to mid April was violated to the upside right there.
I Must've bought their CADC shares. ;)
Hey Oberweis, thanks for selling me your shares at such a discount! Maybe you'll sell me some more at such a bargain again soon?
RINO - I see BAC reported ownership of 386,000 shares as of 9/30, wonder if they sold since (probably, unless their DD excels over Muddy Waters') and why they don't offer a rating on it for their customers(like me) to read?
Hmm....
Whitebox (CADC's largest institutional holder as of 9/30, $2.5M), reported selling all their RINO (a $279k position) shares by 9/30, along with a host of others.
FUQI - As of 9/30, Whitebox added, to make this one ($7.1M) their 11th largest position.
No telling if Whitebox still owns FUQI, but they must've done a decent amount of DD to make it their 11th largest position.
Conclusion: I should watch FUQI a little closer...!!!
Opps!!!!... looks like a made a mistake today. At the close I wanted to bump my CADC bid up to 3.98 from 3.95. I must have entered 4.98. So, I'm now long 2,000 shares @ 4.06.
I guess my point was since Whitebox advisors plunked down such a large chunk of change, and assuming they must've done some DD beforehand, it may be worth sniffing around FUQI a bit.
Oh, that's funny! I really wasn't too pleased with today's CADC action but what should I expect under the circumstances? I've got the impression it's getting hit with tax loss selling.
Anyway, I'm gonna hold and add if/when it drops under my basis price or some fantastic event occurs which justifies immediate price increases..
I'm confident enough this weakness is only temporary but can't justify adding in willy-nilly fashion.
Heat's already on. NOT my choice. Oh well. Cheaper than a bunch of sick kids I guess.
The grape harvest here was a disaster for the growers. Wet spring, cold summer, very wet fall. The fruit is said to be good though. What they could get of it.
ES - Looks like as of 9/30 the big boys were loading up along the bottom, some of them are no doubt in the green but there's no screaming reasons for them to have taken gains? Unless maybe they bought the very bottom and take gains quickly?
Sheesh Mark, you mean you're willing to sit in a house that's 50* inside? It's 70* in this house and that's as cold as I can put up with on a continuous basis.
WTF is this shit? I wasn't offered any fancy pants cosmetic sutures like Obama. No Sir. Standard 4-0 nylon sutures for my face. Figures. Must be the part of Obama care Pelosi told us we'd find out about after it passes.
Slot Cars - Really depends on what you want, there are basically two sizes we used to have and if by current set-ups you mean have any of us have played with them in the last 20 or more years, that would exclude me. Have they really changed much? I seem to recall they added magnets in an attempt to gain cornering speed but I don't think that really worked, and there were rechargeable battery hot wheels at one time but for home use I'd just go with a standard Tyco set. They're better mounted on a large plywood board but storage is cumbersome, had contemplated fastening the track to a ping-pong table but never actually tried it.
For home, we used to have the standard Tyco set, and for the public courses we used to use the build it yourself car kits with fancy controllers.
But why not get something with remote control, large wheels, and either internal combustion engine or rechargeable battery powered that can be used outdoors? Those can be more versatile/interesting/portable?
CP- Hmmm. Good idea. Trying to come up with an idea for my 3 year old son for Christmas. I had the Tyco as well. Kinda looks like there are 3 track set ups that get good reviews. Don't know. It'd take up a ton of space, like the entire dining room. I was hoping to see if someone could talk me into it. He loves the Hot Wheels. Still debating the Wii. I just hate the idea of getting them anything that is fed through the boob tube.
we had one of those electric porche's they could drive around in. top speed 3-5 mph, good on sidewalk if not hilly
remember those hot wheels with the big front wheel and small rear wheels? kids always seem to have fun with those. again, they need a safe place to ride it. we setup a "race course" in the basement
slot cars.... They still have the HO variety and the larger versions. Larger versions are likely better for three year old hands. somebody like Mark can attach the tract to a sheet of CDX and either loser it with pullies or hinge one side to the wall and lower the un-hinged side onto fold out legs.
This may lead to UBBER advanced HO hobbyist versions. CP would be BLOWN AWAY with the neodymium magnets that suck the cars to the tracks, ball-bearing motor shafts with custom armature windings and neodymium magnets, 12V car battery power, Parma controllers like for the full sized versions and the selection of tires/wheels/slots/tracks, etc. Most of the adults here would be amazed at how fast and advanced (and costly) this can be for a customized Tyco, Tomy, Aurora or custom BSRT HO slot car. http://www.scaleauto.com/bsrt/index.htm That said, this is all well beyond a three year old unless you add a 40 or 50 in front of the 3 and a few more zeros in the price.
I had a train set at three, but the slot cars came later. Might I suggest the "Rifleman" rifle (Chuck Conners), the Zoro outfit, the Lone Ranger outfit with hat, mask, six shooters, silver bullets and holster, or Roy Roger's horse "Silver" (a toy of course, not a real horse).
Remember those? I suppose these days it's Sponge Bob Square Pants.....
Somewhere in my drawer there's a pair of "Pikachu" boxer trunks I bought in Japan ahead of the craze over here, that might be another brand of interest?
I couldn't pass on the thought of Pikachu boxers....
"World Bank Lends Record Amount for Renewable Energy... But also for Coal
Posted on November 24, 2010 by Celsias - Premier Partner SustainLane Premier Content Partners are part of a growing network of publishers bringing you the very best green content from across the web.
To read more articles by this Premier Partner, follow the link at the end of this post.
The World Bank’s lending for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects increased by 300 percent between fiscal year 2007 and fiscal year 2010, to a record $3.4 billion.
The World Bank’s lending for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects increased by 300 percent between fiscal year 2007 and fiscal year 2010, to a record $3.4 billion. But over that same period, lending to fossil fuel projects also jumped 430 percent.
Recent loans for coal-fired power plants is evidence to the fact that the World Bank is still in the business of loaning money for massive construction projects with the most favorable cost-benefit ratio -- with benefits measured almost entirely in terms of economic benefits.
“[The World Bank] is constantly stalling on one very important policy: calculating the greenhouse-gas emissions produced by its own projects,” said Janet Redman, co-director of the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network at the Institute for Policy Studies. “In its actions, the World Bank has deviated from its rhetoric,” Redman said.
World Bank loans for fossil fuel projects topped $6.3 billion in the fiscal year ending in June, $4.4 billion of which was for the construction of new coal-fired power plants, according to the Bank Information Center, a Washington-based watchdog group."
Groundwater Pumping Behind 25% of Ocean Level Rise?
Posted on November 25, 2010 by Celsias - Premier Partner SustainLane
According to a New York Times green blog, groundwater pumping over and above what is actually needed is responsible for one quarter of the rise in worldwide ocean levels.
"We had a slate of news over the past few weeks that was good. The ECRI weekly Leading Index, after some ugly downtrends, is showing signs of turning around. We have had small increases each week since October 15, and the annualized growth rate of the index is now only -3.1%, having increased for 12 weeks. Its recent low was in July. Yes, I know that a large part of that growth is in the financial sector, as the stock market is up and interest rates are low, but it does suggest that 2011 should not be a recession year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index improved in September and is now only slightly negative, again suggesting that there should be no recession in '11. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey was up this last week, as well, to its highest level since August. And the Kansas City Fed survey was up for the third month in a row.
Initial jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 407,000 this week, a rather amazing number, as the actual number was 462,000 (although the week before the actual number was just 409,000). That is why most people pay attention to the seasonally adjusted number, as this data series is extremely noisy. Let us hope this is a trend.
And what's this? Personal income was actually up 0.5% for the month? That's positive, as personal income growth has not been all that good, and is now up 4.1% over the last year. Just six months ago, in May, it was up only 1.8% over the preceding year.
The economy has now grown at a rate of 3.1% over the last four quarters. That is the good news and it's the best growth we have had for four quarters since 2005. We have been slowing down somewhat the last two quarters, but are still north of 2%."
However, he points out the following fact:
"Third-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.5%, although inventories accounted for just over half of the growth. Building inventories counts as a plus in GDP accounting, and selling them deducts from GDP growth. Just the way it's done. But at some point inventories will stabilize. ... With inventory growth slowing, it is really possible to be below 2% for the 4th quarter."
So maybe the smart money in the market saw the green shoots back in August that morphed into the recent slate of good news (hence the market rally), but now people are looking ahead and do not see any positive surprises on top of the slow recovery that is already priced in?
The absence of positive surprises, however, does not mean that stocks will go down -- the path of the least resistance is still up most likely. But the road ahead will be more bumpy than it has been for the past couple of months.
The macro reason as to why I think the path of the least resistance for stock prices is up is because the US economy is still in a sweet spot: it is growing slowly AND the rates are still at 0. This is actually a better scenario for stocks, historically, than a fast growth AND rate increases.
A different (technical) reason is that S&P was in the past well correlated with the Consumer Metric index and the ECRI WLI Growth index. Both formed a bottom this summer and are now moving in the right direction. Check out the latest consumer metric data:
http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
As for ECRI WLI, this Friday it showed a real jump in the index *level*, and not just in the *growth rate* (which was completely predictably becoming less and less negative for a couple of months simply because the index level stopped falling).
With all this in mind, in order not to let a profit turn into a loss, I am lowering my buy stop limit order on 100 shares FCX right to the level at which I opened that short: $99.77/$100.
"So maybe the smart money in the market saw the green shoots back in August that morphed into the recent slate of good news (hence the market rally), but now people are looking ahead and do not see any positive surprises on top of the slow recovery that is already priced in?"
Might it be that the same people that didn't think the market could go up are also the same people looking ahead and not seeing positive surprises? People that joke about how Bernanke can't foresee anything because he saw the subprime crisis as contained are the same people that were saying we were doomed and that the stock market is going below 600 (S&P). I'm personally a little skeptical of things but from what I see in my business, what I hear from people in tech/headhunter businesses, from what I'm reading from the mouths of CEOs, and from the recent positive trends in jobs, I'm going to stay long.
Not happy with the action in EUR/USD tonight. /ES holding in there, but might not for long...Unless, $'s flow into both the USD and equities. That would just about get the bears to shit their pants.
Mark, if by 48 you mean decades, I'd say you've got both Justice Stevens and myself beat! This does, however, open up the possibility you're immortal or at least may have contracted a vampire virus.
Holy shcnikes CB, awesome move. I assume you're making bank on that one.
"BAC - Okay then, when does this one collapse?"
Chicken - BAC collapses when people least expect it, like in 2008/2009. Everyone is currently expecting a collapse so it will most likely rise. At least, that is how I'm playing it (FD: Long March $11 Calls and long stock).
BAC - Yeah, I suspect the smart money knows a steep curve only serves in BAC's interest.
I remember how quickly silicon valley recovered from 10% unemployment, it didn't take all that long really while real estate sure took quite a hit then went on to quadruple.
they need big deposits to even keep production at current levels. gold at high concentrations like RBY's F2 is not often found at all in the world, let alone somewhere friendly and with existing infrastructure in a very popular mining district.
i took some profits at 5.85 there. trees don't grow to the sky in a day, and there were many willing buyers.
looks like i sold more than i though. it was like a frenzy there trying to trade manually from some accounts at the same time as via the specialist for the big accounts.
down to 10,000 RBY left (i figure they are free), and took $130 to $140k in profits, mostly in the IRA, so I won't owe taxes on them this yr
Free shares - Hey exactly, I kept all my free shares in GMO. I figure what the heck, if the mine permits go through before selling subsides those shares can just ride the wave and I won't completely miss the fun. ;)
PS: other miners in the past (like GSS for ex), have announced dilution within a few days of results like that, and its "that time of year" for RBY.
That said, I really don't know if I sold too low again. Maybe CI or someone else would be a better judge of where the exit should be. If I had to guess on a buyout number, I'd be thinking $8 or $9 just to start the bidding, but will GG take the bait?
Yeah, everything that wasn't in RBY is in DGP so we might buy steaks tonight to celebrate. I'm glad I didn't panic out of that this morning. The stress level is just silly.
Dang, and I thought the world was on the precipice this morning trying to second guess the European rescue effort... guess maybe not the end of all mankind after all?
Great instincts on RBY, cheapy! I still can't figure out how you can take such risky bets with a large fraction of your portfolio, but they are working out for you. Congratulations!
Talk about buying a panic, sure wish I'd bought a truckload of BAC around $3. That theme of buying when nobody else will and blood is running in the streets has been the key ingredient of my best trades.
I think you've got to monitor and comprehend options pricing in order to refine entry and exit points in respect the shorter term, and I have no experience with that oft discussed end of the spectrum.
ONP - Now I bet they walk it down the descending upper trend line while waiting until everything's oversold to the point where the next rally can begin.
"In our club, we really stress to the girls to: 'Do your best. If you do that, then good things might happen,''' Coach Katie Turtle said in the aftermath of the championship. "Before the (championship) game, I told them, 'Winning is a fun part of the game, but we're here to try our hardest. That's what's important to me and to our parents.'''
That philosophy resulted in the ultimate fun over the weekend — a two-match sweep that added a huge trophy to the long ride home.
It wasn't easy. In fact, the youngsters still aren't exactly sure what happened.
The confusion occurred at the end of the semifinal victory over Cal Odyssey of Clovis.
After the teams had battled to a 1-1 tie through overtime, a penalty-kick shootout would determine which team advanced to the finals the next day, and which would head home prematurely.
Even though this SCA team had never been involved in a shootout before, Turtle had a plan. She called upon Kendra Barry, who had scored the team's lone goal in regulation, to attempt penalty kicks along with Gabriella and Lilli Ziemer, Ashley Hancock and Delaney Johnson.
A save by goalie Hancock on one of the Cal Odyssey attempts put SCA in a position to win as Barry lined up for the club's fifth and final kick. When she converted, something odd happened.
"To be honest, I don't think a lot of the girls knew we had won," Turtle observed. "The parents were excited and the girls ran over to see what was going on.
"Actually, (not knowing the significance of the shootout) was a good thing because it helped keep them calm."
There was nothing calm about the end of the championship game the next day. Two remarkable goals by Barry and a shutout in net by Hancock produced a 2-0 victory over Elk Grove/Everton.
Forgot to mention that I got lucky this morning: nope, not that kind of luck...bought 150 shs of IBKC at $50.02 average. It's a starter position in my company's long term investment account that I plan on building over time.
"U.S. natural gas production rose 3.7 percent in September as output from onshore wells increased, the Energy Department reported today.
Gas production climbed to 75.14 billion cubic feet a day from a revised 72.44 billion in August, the department’s Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report known as EIA-914."
Here is the link to the report: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/eia914/eia914.html
The monthly production jump of 3.7% between August and September is indeed pretty large. However, it was already manifested in the larger than normal storage injections during September and October. The latest two storage reports, however, showed net injections below norm, so the September & October trend might have already reversed recently. Thus, today's panic by NG traders is silly, IMO, as they are panicking about "old news" while the future news might very well be different by 180 degrees.
I forgot to mention that my buy to cover stop order on FCX was hit this morning at $99.78, exactly at the price at which I opened that short. Not letting a profit turn into a loss is a good rule indeed. :) If the market wants to move higher now -- that's fine with me. With my FCX short closed, I am clearly net long now.
I don't know where the bottom will be for the current pullback in TBT, so I am placing small buy limit orders on the way down, so as to hopefully catch the bottom: 50 shares at $35 and 50 shares at $34.50.
CADC - Yeah, if they dare move it back to my basis I'll have to add for a trade.
How long can such a stock carry a 3.4 P/E? Longer than I'd imagined, and the price could fall even further b/c some things just make absolutely no sense at all.
CP, can you please repeat, for my sake, why you think CADC has a bright future? It had a pretty big pullback recently and I might start scaling in if the company indeed has a bright future... Thanks!
OK, I'll use a different strategy for TBT: I canceled my buy limit orders at $35 and $34.50 and instead bought 50 shares right now at $35.15. I looked at its 1-month chart and got a feeling that $35 is an important support level. So TBT either bounces up tomorrow (in which case I should buy it right now, which I just did) or, if it breaks the $35 support level, I should not buy it on the way down but instead wait for the chart to turn bullish once again (which might happen at much lower prices).
Also, instead of waiting for WATG to hit my buy limit at $8.05, I decided to reload right now at $8.15 the 250 shares I sold on Wednesday at $8.39. The 1-month intraday chart for WATG (at Google finance) showed that the decline in WATG has flattened out and in fact WATG might have made a double bottom at $8.1 between last Tuesday and today.
David, for CADC the thesis in large part involves the Chinese growth story, mountains of concrete are necessary to fuel the eminent rise of the Chinese economy and this company is in the thick of it all.
They provided concrete and engineering expertise for the Olympic stadium and numerous other high-profile construction projects including now the high speed rail, bridges, airports, you name it.
They recently signed a supplier letter of intent with China Construction Company as well, have been purchasing portable concrete mixing equipment with their free cash flow, recently obtained a loan for their materials supply chain, etc. in addendum.
The Chinese infrastructure build out is no small project by any stretch of the imagination and CADC is no fly-by-night company from what I've been able to glean. The CEO decided to leave a large state owned construction firm to engage in his own start-up company, so his contacts within the industry and regulatory agencies are deep.
I don't see how this company could possibly not succeed in becoming an integral part of an incredible success story.
I suggest looking over their web site for additional detail, you're sure to realize the degree of potential involved.
So my thinking on my BAC position, aside from it being because I think the stock is undervalued, is if we continue to get strong economic reports, then I think BAC will rocket higher $2 or $3 in a short time frame. Like for example, if we get another strong jobs report on Friday, which I expect, then the stock should leap higher. $2 or $3...big deal, right? Well, when you have about $5k in options, which I do, and another $50k in stock, then that would equate to about $12-$15k in gains. Not bad.
"Citing deficit, Obama to freeze federal worker pay"
This is just shameful, the only workforce in America that's had calculable wage increases over the last decade only now begins to suffer from the slings and arrows. I'm shaking in my boots, what next for Pete's sake, change?
VK: Sure, the growth you see today in China is there, but it’s not a sustainable growth. It's not a growth that you'll see a few years from now. That is an important point for readers to understand.
TCR: We read that note you sent about the South China Mall, which is pretty stunning. It's the second largest mall in the world but is mostly empty.
VK: That's right. But as outrageous an example as the South China Mall is, there's an even more outrageous example – namely that the Chinese built an entire city, Ordos, in Inner Mongolia for 1.5 million residents and it is completely empty. These are classic examples of the sort of excesses going on in China.
TCR: The equivalent of building bridges to nowhere, but on a very large – Chinese – scale.
VK: Exactly. There are no shortcuts to greatness. As long as they keep building new bridges, the economic numbers will register that there is growth, but at some point the piper will have to be paid, and these projects have a negative return on capital.
As I mentioned earlier today, the decline in WATG seems to be over. However, instead of purchasing, say, 1000 shares for a rebound trade, trying to make $0.75 on them, I decided to make the same $0.75 using a much more sure way: I sold before the close 10 January $7.50 puts for $0.75 (and canceled my sell limit order for 10 such puts at $1.15, as I think WATG will not get low enough to trigger that order).
The 1-year CRM chart looks parabolic, and a lucky short position now can make a nice gain. Looking at the 5-day intraday chart, today's price movement was completely enclosed within yesterday's range, and today's close was in the middle of today's range. This makes a nice triangle, and I decided to place a sell short stop limit order for 100 shares at $42/$41.95.
"Press Release Source: China Education Alliance, Inc. On Monday November 29, 2010, 5:04 pm HARBIN, China, Nov. 29, 2010 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China Education Alliance, Inc. (NYSE:CEU - News), a China-based education resource and services company, today responded to allegations that appear in an online blog by Kerrisdale Capital.
The Company categorically denies all the allegations contained in the blog and regards such baseless accusations very seriously. While the Company, as a matter of policy, does not respond to third party research reports, it is consulting with its advisors and legal counsel on the appropriate response in order to preserve investor confidence and shareholder value. Additional information will be forthcoming. The management team, including Mr. Yu, China Education Alliance, Inc. Chairman and CEO, welcomes investors and shareholders to visit their Harbin headquarters.
The Company will explore all options available to it, including without limitation, aggressively pursuing legal remedies for damages caused to the Company and its shareholders."
David - two things: (1) Good luck on the CRM trade as I have watched that, NFLX, and CMG and wondered to myself when it would be a good time to short and I think now is a great time to start; (2) I think you're talking about $142/$141.95, not $42/$41.95, right?
CEU - But rather than get caught up in unknowns surrounding that one, and assuming you're interested in China and possibly education in particular, I prefer looking for an entry in GEDU.
David, Actually, in the case of CADC, my time horizon is focused on 2011, my understanding is they're pouring concrete like mad men to complete the HSR on schedule.
Maybe I'm deaf to the real economic situation in China, but the empty shopping mall and the story of Odos are old news to me, I've completed my investigation on both sides of that story and determined to my self-satisfaction, right or wrong, that the Chinese growth story is under appreciated and/or misrepresented.
Are you somewhat familiar with the Muddy Waters/etc. reports slamming a select few or group of Chinese growth stocks for what appears first to be their personal potential gain?
Interesting and revealing dialog emerges on a daily basis in such a dynamic situation.
There are two sides to every story though, and I've found over time that the least objective story often contains extra layers of fabrication and innuendo as opposed to objective ones.
I could be mistaken, it wouldn't be the first time.
"Famously dubbed China’s “empty city” in a November 2009 report by Al-Jazeera English, the town of Ordos in Inner Mongolia has become the favored example of those convinced that China is in the midst of a runaway property bubble unmoored from reality."
David - On CRM, I'm looking only at valuation. It is trading at 100 times earnings and 68 times Free Cash Flow. It is trading at 16 times book value and has a PEG of almost 5.0.
I honestly haven't seen a large cap stock like the mkt cap this has trade at these valuations since 2000. It's really crazy. The amount of growth this company would have to undergo just to grow into it's current valuation is crazy. Assuming they average FCF growth of 20% a year for the next 10 years, the value of the stock today would be 10 times what the Free Cash Flow would be in 2021. In 2021!!! So today's valuation would be reasonable in 2021 if they were able to average that kind of growth. That is, if the return on the stock for the next 10 years was 0% and the company were able to grow 20% a year every single year for the next 10 years, then the valuation would be reasonable. How many people can honestly say this company will grow that much every year for the next 10 years? Technology changes so quickly that this company could be obsolete in 10 years. I doubt buyers today are giving any thought to this possibility.
CRM - TOF, I recall our discussing this one briefly not so long ago and finding myself in a weak position against your argument.
Although the price has obviously risen considerably since then, I never could identify an explainable theorem to justify a higher price, and so I have no regrets, either. ;)
Re: "On March 26, a NORTH Korean newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4998 comments) on Fri, 11/26/2010 - 11:12 #74915 (in reply to #74906)
ReplyDelete'I am looking to buy stocks today on the dip if the S&P 500 hits around 1180.'
After wading through the sorry headlines out there, I would say the above comment is most intelligent opinion I've read this morning.
edit reply Bookmark this
That's right- I just got up.
ReplyDeleteRe: "On March 26, a NORTH Korean newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4999 comments) on Fri, 11/26/2010 - 11:21 #74916 (in reply to #74914)
ReplyDeleteJong-il is clearly a man in pain. I would hate to be the guy saddled with the task of wandering the halls of his mind in order to lead him out (although I don't think it would be a hopeless goal). If we go back to an indelible rule of any game that homo sapiens engage in- 'It's all mental-' what we have here is the acting-out of yet another tortured soul.
Thanksgiving newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5000 comments) on Fri, 11/26/2010 - 11:39 #74917
ReplyDeleteRather than get caught up in the Korean conflict, we should be looking forward to a global economic recovery, growing pains and all. Mankind has come a long way, even within my own lifetime. I spend a lot of time reminiscing about the sixties and seventies, but would I really want to return to that era? No. The world today is healthier, more educated, more enlightened, and in general at higher standards of living and longer life expectancies.
2011 should be a stellar year for the markets.
No worries about today's sell-off. We need it to work off more negative sentiment.
ReplyDeleteHave a good time yesterday 2nd? Just the family here, but it was fun to actually sit down for dinner together.
ReplyDeletePotential little breakout for RBY. you still in this one CB?
ReplyDeleteYeah, long 110,000
ReplyDeletebought DGP low $39's
ReplyDeleteMark- One sibling + her family in town for the holidays. Then tonight the 'awards ceremony' for the soccer team. Regular holiday stuff.
ReplyDeleteHappy black Friday all.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we might be needing some uranium for something.
Maybe to fuel the new Ford Fusion?
My sincere hope is that it isn't wasted on 'therapy' for KJI. Remember the desperate kids (bullies) in class that used to act up to get attention? The world hasn't altered one bit how it reacts to them though. These people are tortured (in one form or another) and in turn torture others, then finally they are tortured one last time, usually in a violent death or in prison. KJI is an example of one that finds himself the leader of an entire country, but his craziness continues and his countrymen/classmates are tortured beyond belief.
The last tortured saddist we dealt with was Saddam. (what a spelling coincidence) He met with the typical end. What a sad world we live in.
Still holding URRE/URZ
BTW, beware of black Friday BS:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/please-santa-let-this-be-the-last-christmas-in-america-thats-supposed-to-save-the-u-s-economy/
How's the little guy enjoying it? Your home town has a division 3 club that seems very well run. I talked to a few of the coaches at a tourny in Sacto. They were staying at the same hotel as our team. Good people.
ReplyDeleteStinky on CADC @ 3.95.
ReplyDeleteTRE might be a play here.
ReplyDeleteCB- How do you get out of a position that large? Blocks of 5, 10K? Anything larger might F up the bid/ask.
ReplyDeleteImbalances....
ReplyDeleteBUY- BAC/V/XOM
SELL- DD/DOW/RIG.
I usually unwind over a few days to a week, and have the specialist work the orders in block sizd chunks.
ReplyDeleteLOL, if I decide to exit in a hurry, it makes for a wild day
ReplyDeleteThat's why I only like to have big positions in companies I really believe in
ReplyDeleteRBY - Yep, sure enough!
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think the early Nov rally was the last hurrah just prior to EOY portfolio rebalancing and tax loss selling, not anticipating much if any upside till January 2011.
ReplyDeleteOINK - I hope this one falls from here so I can buy some, I'd regret the thought of not making some coin on OINK!
ReplyDeleteCB- Just curious, not trying to pry...How do you get in touch with the specialist for a given stock and how are the fees arranged for him to execute the trades?
ReplyDeleteTD Ameritrade does it for premier accounts as part of their service...
ReplyDeleteIts what keeps the big account there. Otherwise I'd be sitting at the PC for a week selling 200 shares at a time, which is what I did before. My other brokers don't offer anything equivalent. Just imagine having 1.1 mm shares of GSS and deciding its time to sell..
CSCO - Sure looks like a bottom has formed...
ReplyDelete1.1m shares GSS - Sell AON!
ReplyDeleteCP- I'd switch to TD Ameritrade if I were you. That way you can get a specialist to unwind your YHOO position.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not, there have been probably 15 stocks in the past 8 yrs where I've gone 100+% long on them, and those are the ones where I typically made 6 figure gains, not the trading. I only had one of them I sold because I decided the company was going to leave shareholders screwed, and I dumped it for a $125,000 loss, it dropped from $4 where I sold to 19 cents from there before it went under.
ReplyDeleteIts a big risk. RBY isn't that bad because I only have 1/3 the trading accounts in it, and they are only 25% of assets, now.
ONP - Wonder when/if GS will jettison their 375,000 share position they reported Sept. 30th?
ReplyDeleteMark - You know I've got 10 shares of YHOO, at around $24 I think I paid. I'm not sure what the plan was there, I don't pay much attention to it but if a specialist can unwind it at a gain, that would be a nice trick!
ReplyDeleteYes, I definitely need to switch to TD, this might be the right time to do that.
Looks like Oberweis panicked out of most of their Chinese equities at or near the bottom, both CADC and ONP for sure, probably a bunch more. Sept 30, is when the selling in CADC subsided, the downtrend line going back to mid April was violated to the upside right there.
ReplyDeleteI Must've bought their CADC shares. ;)
Hey Oberweis, thanks for selling me your shares at such a discount! Maybe you'll sell me some more at such a bargain again soon?
RINO - I see BAC reported ownership of 386,000 shares as of 9/30, wonder if they sold since (probably, unless their DD excels over Muddy Waters') and why they don't offer a rating on it for their customers(like me) to read?
ReplyDeleteHmm....
Whitebox (CADC's largest institutional holder as of 9/30, $2.5M), reported selling all their RINO (a $279k position) shares by 9/30, along with a host of others.
FUQI - As of 9/30, Whitebox added, to make this one ($7.1M) their 11th largest position.
No telling if Whitebox still owns FUQI, but they must've done a decent amount of DD to make it their 11th largest position.
Conclusion: I should watch FUQI a little closer...!!!
FUQI- You all know I'm always interested in any ticker that starts with FU, but damn, I'd be easier to list all the agencies NOT investigating FUQI :)
ReplyDeleteOpps!!!!... looks like a made a mistake today. At the close I wanted to bump my CADC bid up to 3.98 from 3.95. I must have entered 4.98. So, I'm now long 2,000 shares @ 4.06.
ReplyDeleteI guess my point was since Whitebox advisors plunked down such a large chunk of change, and assuming they must've done some DD beforehand, it may be worth sniffing around FUQI a bit.
ReplyDeleteOh, that's funny! I really wasn't too pleased with today's CADC action but what should I expect under the circumstances? I've got the impression it's getting hit with tax loss selling.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I'm gonna hold and add if/when it drops under my basis price or some fantastic event occurs which justifies immediate price increases..
I'm confident enough this weakness is only temporary but can't justify adding in willy-nilly fashion.
CP- Let me know what you find out. If they can get through all the crap heaped on it right now it could really run.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at ES. I'm looking at it now. Interesting chart/theme.
Hey, why won't the little girl in the picture above let the other one play with her ball?
ReplyDeleteUmmmm...Cause she's competitive as hell?? :)
ReplyDeleteDamn, last year the kids swam during this weekend.
28 right now with a high today of 49. Crazy.
ES - Radioactive waste remediation does have appeal, especially considering recent interest in the subject.
ReplyDeleteChart looks set to make a decision one way or the other and I wouldn't bet against it.
Short float 10% if you can believe finviz data, insiders buying like madmen?.
Better check this one out...
It's warmer here, 50* all day but feels cold in these trees.
ReplyDeleteYour cold weather isn't bound to last long, you may be forced to fire up the central heat though. Probably excellent for grape vines?
Heat's already on. NOT my choice. Oh well. Cheaper than a bunch of sick kids I guess.
ReplyDeleteThe grape harvest here was a disaster for the growers. Wet spring, cold summer, very wet fall. The fruit is said to be good though. What they could get of it.
Yeah, I heard a little about the grape harvest, seems the growers who guessed right hit the jackpot in terms of quality and the window was narrow.
ReplyDeleteI think in general grapes did pretty well here, cotton in Texas was pretty good but they were caught in late rains too.
ES - Looks like as of 9/30 the big boys were loading up along the bottom, some of them are no doubt in the green but there's no screaming reasons for them to have taken gains? Unless maybe they bought the very bottom and take gains quickly?
ReplyDeleteSheesh Mark, you mean you're willing to sit in a house that's 50* inside? It's 70* in this house and that's as cold as I can put up with on a continuous basis.
ReplyDeleteWTF is this shit? I wasn't offered any fancy pants cosmetic sutures like Obama. No Sir. Standard 4-0 nylon sutures for my face. Figures. Must be the part of Obama care Pelosi told us we'd find out about after it passes.
ReplyDeleteCP- Just shut the "heat train down" @ 66*. OVER! GO TO BED YOU WORTHLESS PUNKS!!!
ReplyDeleteGood job Kendra!!!!
ReplyDeleteWhat up Bro??
ReplyDeleteWell, we got to just about freezing last night (~35*) and today looks like 50*~55* a least, so we're going to try to get some outdoor time.
ReplyDeleteNeed to rake/blow leaves again, not sure if we're up to it though...
Any of you guys know about the current slot car set ups?
ReplyDeleteSlot Cars - Really depends on what you want, there are basically two sizes we used to have and if by current set-ups you mean have any of us have played with them in the last 20 or more years, that would exclude me. Have they really changed much? I seem to recall they added magnets in an attempt to gain cornering speed but I don't think that really worked, and there were rechargeable battery hot wheels at one time but for home use I'd just go with a standard Tyco set. They're better mounted on a large plywood board but storage is cumbersome, had contemplated fastening the track to a ping-pong table but never actually tried it.
ReplyDeleteFor home, we used to have the standard Tyco set, and for the public courses we used to use the build it yourself car kits with fancy controllers.
But why not get something with remote control, large wheels, and either internal combustion engine or rechargeable battery powered that can be used outdoors? Those can be more versatile/interesting/portable?
CP- Hmmm. Good idea. Trying to come up with an idea for my 3 year old son for Christmas. I had the Tyco as well. Kinda looks like there are 3 track set ups that get good reviews. Don't know. It'd take up a ton of space, like the entire dining room. I was hoping to see if someone could talk me into it. He loves the Hot Wheels. Still debating the Wii. I just hate the idea of getting them anything that is fed through the boob tube.
ReplyDeletefor a 3 yr old, the slot cars might be too small, too complicated, and too fast.
ReplyDeletehow about a big remote control truck? one that can go inside or outside...
I vote for the remote control truck, or even a peddle car / go-cart he can drive or scoot around on.
ReplyDeleteI never was that young, but I do remember Tonka trucks, a bicycle with training wheels and various battery operated toys.
Maybe now they have laptop computers for kids that age (not exactly an exercise enabler)?
we had one of those electric porche's they could drive around in. top speed 3-5 mph, good on sidewalk if not hilly
ReplyDeleteremember those hot wheels with the big front wheel and small rear wheels? kids always seem to have fun with those. again, they need a safe place to ride it. we setup a "race course" in the basement
slot cars....
ReplyDeleteThey still have the HO variety and the larger versions. Larger versions are likely better for three year old hands. somebody like Mark can attach the tract to a sheet of CDX and either loser it with pullies or hinge one side to the wall and lower the un-hinged side onto fold out legs.
This may lead to UBBER advanced HO hobbyist versions. CP would be BLOWN AWAY with the neodymium magnets that suck the cars to the tracks, ball-bearing motor shafts with custom armature windings and neodymium magnets, 12V car battery power, Parma controllers like for the full sized versions and the selection of tires/wheels/slots/tracks, etc. Most of the adults here would be amazed at how fast and advanced (and costly) this can be for a customized Tyco, Tomy, Aurora or custom BSRT HO slot car. http://www.scaleauto.com/bsrt/index.htm
That said, this is all well beyond a three year old unless you add a 40 or 50 in front of the 3 and a few more zeros in the price.
I had a train set at three, but the slot cars came later. Might I suggest the "Rifleman" rifle (Chuck Conners), the Zoro outfit, the Lone Ranger outfit with hat, mask, six shooters, silver bullets and holster, or Roy Roger's horse "Silver" (a toy of course, not a real horse).
Remember those?
I suppose these days it's Sponge Bob Square Pants.....
FF
Sponge Bob and Larry Potter. ;)
ReplyDeleteCSCO - According to nasdaq.com, insiders added to their positions considerably following the sell off.
Somewhere in my drawer there's a pair of "Pikachu" boxer trunks I bought in Japan ahead of the craze over here, that might be another brand of interest?
ReplyDeleteI couldn't pass on the thought of Pikachu boxers....
Custom armature winding - Those of course would cost more and perform much better!
ReplyDeleteLike having a heavy old steel Schwinn vs an titanium alloy racing bicycle?
I noticed lately they're making bamboo bicycles advertised as green machines.
"World Bank Lends Record Amount for Renewable Energy... But also for Coal
ReplyDeletePosted on November 24, 2010
by Celsias - Premier Partner SustainLane Premier Content Partners are part of a growing network of publishers bringing you the very best green content from across the web.
To read more articles by this Premier Partner, follow the link at the end of this post.
The World Bank’s lending for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects increased by 300 percent between fiscal year 2007 and fiscal year 2010, to a record $3.4 billion.
The World Bank’s lending for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects increased by 300 percent between fiscal year 2007 and fiscal year 2010, to a record $3.4 billion. But over that same period, lending to fossil fuel projects also jumped 430 percent.
Recent loans for coal-fired power plants is evidence to the fact that the World Bank is still in the business of loaning money for massive construction projects with the most favorable cost-benefit ratio -- with benefits measured almost entirely in terms of economic benefits.
“[The World Bank] is constantly stalling on one very important policy: calculating the greenhouse-gas emissions produced by its own projects,” said Janet Redman, co-director of the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network at the Institute for Policy Studies. “In its actions, the World Bank has deviated from its rhetoric,” Redman said.
World Bank loans for fossil fuel projects topped $6.3 billion in the fiscal year ending in June, $4.4 billion of which was for the construction of new coal-fired power plants, according to the Bank Information Center, a Washington-based watchdog group."
http://www.sustainlane.com/reviews/world-bank-lends-record-amount-for-renewable-energy-but-also-for-coal/3JVQUKWUFY78PYFBR7Q3AZWQXVUA
Groundwater Pumping Behind 25% of Ocean Level Rise?
ReplyDeletePosted on November 25, 2010
by Celsias - Premier Partner SustainLane
According to a New York Times green blog, groundwater pumping over and above what is actually needed is responsible for one quarter of the rise in worldwide ocean levels.
http://www.sustainlane.com/reviews/groundwater-pumping-behind-25-of-ocean-level-rise/YSD4RAAJHBY2SBV7DH9TLNBFHWOR
John Mauldin has just put out the most optimistic weekly newsletter (if my memory serves me right) in the past few years:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/11/26/recessions-are-on-the-margin.aspx
Here are some excerpts from it:
"We had a slate of news over the past few weeks that was good. The ECRI weekly Leading Index, after some ugly downtrends, is showing signs of turning around. We have had small increases each week since October 15, and the annualized growth rate of the index is now only -3.1%, having increased for 12 weeks. Its recent low was in July. Yes, I know that a large part of that growth is in the financial sector, as the stock market is up and interest rates are low, but it does suggest that 2011 should not be a recession year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index improved in September and is now only slightly negative, again suggesting that there should be no recession in '11. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey was up this last week, as well, to its highest level since August. And the Kansas City Fed survey was up for the third month in a row.
Initial jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 407,000 this week, a rather amazing number, as the actual number was 462,000 (although the week before the actual number was just 409,000). That is why most people pay attention to the seasonally adjusted number, as this data series is extremely noisy. Let us hope this is a trend.
And what's this? Personal income was actually up 0.5% for the month? That's positive, as personal income growth has not been all that good, and is now up 4.1% over the last year. Just six months ago, in May, it was up only 1.8% over the preceding year.
The economy has now grown at a rate of 3.1% over the last four quarters. That is the good news and it's the best growth we have had for four quarters since 2005. We have been slowing down somewhat the last two quarters, but are still north of 2%."
However, he points out the following fact:
"Third-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.5%, although inventories accounted for just over half of the growth. Building inventories counts as a plus in GDP accounting, and selling them deducts from GDP growth. Just the way it's done. But at some point inventories will stabilize. ...
With inventory growth slowing, it is really possible to be below 2% for the 4th quarter."
So maybe the smart money in the market saw the green shoots back in August that morphed into the recent slate of good news (hence the market rally), but now people are looking ahead and do not see any positive surprises on top of the slow recovery that is already priced in?
The absence of positive surprises, however, does not mean that stocks will go down -- the path of the least resistance is still up most likely. But the road ahead will be more bumpy than it has been for the past couple of months.
The macro reason as to why I think the path of the least resistance for stock prices is up is because the US economy is still in a sweet spot: it is growing slowly AND the rates are still at 0. This is actually a better scenario for stocks, historically, than a fast growth AND rate increases.
ReplyDeleteA different (technical) reason is that S&P was in the past well correlated with the Consumer Metric index and the ECRI WLI Growth index. Both formed a bottom this summer and are now moving in the right direction. Check out the latest consumer metric data:
http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
As for ECRI WLI, this Friday it showed a real jump in the index *level*, and not just in the *growth rate* (which was completely predictably becoming less and less negative for a couple of months simply because the index level stopped falling).
With all this in mind, in order not to let a profit turn into a loss, I am lowering my buy stop limit order on 100 shares FCX right to the level at which I opened that short: $99.77/$100.
ReplyDeleteOK guys. Good points. The remote controlled truck it is. At some point though, I'm getting that slot car track for myself...Hum, him :)
ReplyDeleteGet them both Mark, why not? Or the slot car set could be a birthday gift?
ReplyDeleteLook around at what the other boys play with, might find a stocking stuffer.
I wouldn't be chintzy with things that help foster the imagination.
I'm looking at DGW again...
hey mark,
ReplyDeleteI love remote control cars!
I found these cars!
http://tinyurl.com/35or7q7
I like your analysis David. However you said:
ReplyDelete"So maybe the smart money in the market saw the green shoots back in August that morphed into the recent slate of good news (hence the market rally), but now people are looking ahead and do not see any positive surprises on top of the slow recovery that is already priced in?"
Might it be that the same people that didn't think the market could go up are also the same people looking ahead and not seeing positive surprises? People that joke about how Bernanke can't foresee anything because he saw the subprime crisis as contained are the same people that were saying we were doomed and that the stock market is going below 600 (S&P). I'm personally a little skeptical of things but from what I see in my business, what I hear from people in tech/headhunter businesses, from what I'm reading from the mouths of CEOs, and from the recent positive trends in jobs, I'm going to stay long.
Thanks VB....
ReplyDeleteNot happy with the action in EUR/USD tonight. /ES holding in there, but might not for long...Unless, $'s flow into both the USD and equities. That would just about get the bears to shit their pants.
$WTIC certainly held it's own in the face of a strong USD Friday.
ReplyDeleteI see gold is down, that's not been a good sign for equities.
ReplyDeletePotential themes for tomorrow's doom and gloom headlines...
With an improving economy the thought at the moment is Bernanke won't pursue QE to the extent originally anticipated.
Black Friday sales were dismal(Didn't the media pump this one pretty hard?).
The sovereign debt problems in Europe are escalating ($89B ain't squat).
Korea is going haywire, the US is exacerbating the situation.
More action in crude mergers...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-28/cnooc-venture-to-buy-bp-s-pan-american-stake-for-7-1-billion.html
BAC - Man, that pennant looks like $8 is the target price.
ReplyDeleteROST - This one's done really well, hasn't it?
ReplyDeleteWait a minute. South Bay dude wins $8M in the lotto. 2nd has been AWOL since the news broke...Nah, he'd divy up right?? Can't be...
ReplyDeleteWatching 60 Minutes. I'm 48, I think, and Justice Stevens looks younger than me and sounds FAR more intelligent. Damn. You go you old fart!!!
ReplyDeleteChina Shipbuilding Corp - It seems the crowd liked their earnings after close Friday, up almost 5% in Shanghai...
ReplyDeleteI already made two round trips on TBT -- why not shoot for the third one? So I just placed a buy stop limit order for 200 shares at $36/$36.02.
ReplyDeleteThings are definitely NOT looking good for European banks: STD, DB, UBS.
ReplyDeleteMark, if by 48 you mean decades, I'd say you've got both Justice Stevens and myself beat! This does, however, open up the possibility you're immortal or at least may have contracted a vampire virus.
ReplyDeleteOkay, is this where beaten down stocks get even cheaper, or is this our last entry opportunity?
ReplyDeleteie: Are CSCO and BAC really going to present much more opportunity or is this the limit?
I hate being forced to become a pig involuntarily, but I do have limits...
Must be Christmas, all I see are red and green flashing lights!
ReplyDeleteCome on, gimme a sleigh full of gifts Mr. Market!
Wonder what's up with V today??
ReplyDeleteV - No credit transactions by shoppers, all cash?
ReplyDeleteStinky on V @ 72.34.
ReplyDeleteHmmm...Hussman gets less bearish, maybe we should get more bearish? Dude has been wrong for a while and this is definitely a traders market.
ReplyDeleteAnyone seeing a big difference between SPY/SPX? I'm showing SPX about .5% lower.
ReplyDeleteHey, maybe they'll reprice TNA ~= SSO? I keep missing out on that move...
ReplyDeleteSPY/SPX - Yeah, I see it. Looks like someone is buying the panic?
ReplyDeleteTOF- I was thinking the same thing last night :)
ReplyDeleteCP- I did hear shoppers were using their debit card more, but it seemed to be a shift from credit and not to cash.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Okay then, when does this one collapse?
ReplyDeleteFRO - Not many buy/hold folks in the green on this one...
V - Well, does or does not current consumer habit contribute to V's bottom line or no effect?
ReplyDeleterby taking off!
ReplyDeleteRBY up 10%
ReplyDeleteV- Not from the report I heard, as far as I could tell.
ReplyDeleteRBY- Way to go CB!!
My cash is beating the pants off gold, while gold is beating my equities.
ReplyDeleteGimme lower prices and I'll consider adding, else get off the pot.
RBY- News out. You nailed it CB!! Sell the news?
ReplyDeleteNaaaa, I'm hanging in there. big vol on 1st candle to over $5, so I think there will be revaluations much higher by analysts tomorrow
ReplyDeleteRBY - Nice trade CB, great to see!
ReplyDeleteGL CB!!
ReplyDeleterby up 19% and rising!
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/29fhkco
:)
Holy shcnikes CB, awesome move. I assume you're making bank on that one.
ReplyDelete"BAC - Okay then, when does this one collapse?"
Chicken - BAC collapses when people least expect it, like in 2008/2009. Everyone is currently expecting a collapse so it will most likely rise. At least, that is how I'm playing it (FD: Long March $11 Calls and long stock).
RBY - It's nice to know of someone in that trade...
ReplyDeleteAdded more BAC March $11 Calls at $1.15 just now. It looks like BAC has made a double bottom.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Yeah, I suspect the smart money knows a steep curve only serves in BAC's interest.
ReplyDeleteI remember how quickly silicon valley recovered from 10% unemployment, it didn't take all that long really while real estate sure took quite a hit then went on to quadruple.
GL guys. At the close.
ReplyDeleteCB - I just pasted a gold star next to your name on my list of fellow traders, give us a heads-up on your next great discovery!
ReplyDeleteDidn't I read somewhere that big gold producers were primarily interested in assets containing at least 7-10m ounces and larger?
they need big deposits to even keep production at current levels. gold at high concentrations like RBY's F2 is not often found at all in the world, let alone somewhere friendly and with existing infrastructure in a very popular mining district.
ReplyDeletei took some profits at 5.85 there. trees don't grow to the sky in a day, and there were many willing buyers.
Okay, so based upon what I've seen lately, I'm going to be patiently waiting for S&P 1130 before considering my next opportunity to add.
ReplyDeletelooks like i sold more than i though. it was like a frenzy there trying to trade manually from some accounts at the same time as via the specialist for the big accounts.
ReplyDeletedown to 10,000 RBY left (i figure they are free), and took $130 to $140k in profits, mostly in the IRA, so I won't owe taxes on them this yr
LOL, all but 100 shares of the big $5.85 sell order got filled. I guess they think they will make another $9.95 out of me selling them....
ReplyDeleteFree shares - Hey exactly, I kept all my free shares in GMO. I figure what the heck, if the mine permits go through before selling subsides those shares can just ride the wave and I won't completely miss the fun. ;)
ReplyDeleteWe all know that a few days or weeks from now I'll likely be sitting here whining about how I sold to early as usual...
ReplyDeleteAwwww, what the heck, sold the last 10,000.
ReplyDeleteTake the money and run.
I can always buy metal with the money...
Well lookie there, gold popping it's head out of the ground like a little chipmunk, kinda looks like sellers may have been snookered?
ReplyDeletePS: other miners in the past (like GSS for ex), have announced dilution within a few days of results like that, and its "that time of year" for RBY.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I really don't know if I sold too low again. Maybe CI or someone else would be a better judge of where the exit should be. If I had to guess on a buyout number, I'd be thinking $8 or $9 just to start the bidding, but will GG take the bait?
Yeah, everything that wasn't in RBY is in DGP so we might buy steaks tonight to celebrate. I'm glad I didn't panic out of that this morning. The stress level is just silly.
ReplyDeleteDang, and I thought the world was on the precipice this morning trying to second guess the European rescue effort... guess maybe not the end of all mankind after all?
ReplyDeleteShucks!
Great instincts on RBY, cheapy! I still can't figure out how you can take such risky bets with a large fraction of your portfolio, but they are working out for you. Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteIts because I find something i think has real promise and buy the panic.
ReplyDeletei'll probably never figure out when to sell correctly...
I am always starting new positions in ultra small sizes. Just bought 100 shares of TBT at $35.41, hoping for a third round trip on it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, my buy limit order for 400 shares of UNG was hit this morning at $5.90. I just bought 300 more shares at $5.77.
I just sold 2000 shares of UCO @ 11.03 for a 12% return.
ReplyDeleteTalk about buying a panic, sure wish I'd bought a truckload of BAC around $3. That theme of buying when nobody else will and blood is running in the streets has been the key ingredient of my best trades.
ReplyDeleteI think you've got to monitor and comprehend options pricing in order to refine entry and exit points in respect the shorter term, and I have no experience with that oft discussed end of the spectrum.
ONP - Now I bet they walk it down the descending upper trend line while waiting until everything's oversold to the point where the next rally can begin.
ReplyDeleteURRE is still glowing for FF!
ReplyDeleteFrom a local newspaper....
ReplyDelete"In our club, we really stress to the girls to: 'Do your best. If you do that, then good things might happen,''' Coach Katie Turtle said in the aftermath of the championship. "Before the (championship) game, I told them, 'Winning is a fun part of the game, but we're here to try our hardest. That's what's important to me and to our parents.'''
That philosophy resulted in the ultimate fun over the weekend — a two-match sweep that added a huge trophy to the long ride home.
It wasn't easy. In fact, the youngsters still aren't exactly sure what happened.
The confusion occurred at the end of the semifinal victory over Cal Odyssey of Clovis.
After the teams had battled to a 1-1 tie through overtime, a penalty-kick shootout would determine which team advanced to the finals the next day, and which would head home prematurely.
Even though this SCA team had never been involved in a shootout before, Turtle had a plan. She called upon Kendra Barry, who had scored the team's lone goal in regulation, to attempt penalty kicks along with Gabriella and Lilli Ziemer, Ashley Hancock and Delaney Johnson.
A save by goalie Hancock on one of the Cal Odyssey attempts put SCA in a position to win as Barry lined up for the club's fifth and final kick. When she converted, something odd happened.
"To be honest, I don't think a lot of the girls knew we had won," Turtle observed. "The parents were excited and the girls ran over to see what was going on.
"Actually, (not knowing the significance of the shootout) was a good thing because it helped keep them calm."
There was nothing calm about the end of the championship game the next day. Two remarkable goals by Barry and a shutout in net by Hancock produced a 2-0 victory over Elk Grove/Everton.
Bidding CADC @ 3.83. Let's see if it can hold the 200.
ReplyDeleteAONE smack down on downgrade.
ReplyDeleteSPY moving on volume.
ReplyDeletePOMO mo-mo??
ReplyDeleteForgot to mention that I got lucky this morning: nope, not that kind of luck...bought 150 shs of IBKC at $50.02 average. It's a starter position in my company's long term investment account that I plan on building over time.
ReplyDeleteI think this is the cause of today's drop in NG:
ReplyDelete"U.S. natural gas production rose 3.7 percent in September as output from onshore wells increased, the Energy Department reported today.
Gas production climbed to 75.14 billion cubic feet a day from a revised 72.44 billion in August, the department’s Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report known as EIA-914."
Here is the link to the report: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/eia914/eia914.html
The monthly production jump of 3.7% between August and September is indeed pretty large. However, it was already manifested in the larger than normal storage injections during September and October. The latest two storage reports, however, showed net injections below norm, so the September & October trend might have already reversed recently. Thus, today's panic by NG traders is silly, IMO, as they are panicking about "old news" while the future news might very well be different by 180 degrees.
I forgot to mention that my buy to cover stop order on FCX was hit this morning at $99.78, exactly at the price at which I opened that short. Not letting a profit turn into a loss is a good rule indeed. :) If the market wants to move higher now -- that's fine with me. With my FCX short closed, I am clearly net long now.
ReplyDeleteSPY green, VIX about to go red. Still showing a .5% diff in SPX/SPY.
ReplyDeleteNice turn around in AXP.
ReplyDeleteI don't know where the bottom will be for the current pullback in TBT, so I am placing small buy limit orders on the way down, so as to hopefully catch the bottom: 50 shares at $35 and 50 shares at $34.50.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Yeah, if they dare move it back to my basis I'll have to add for a trade.
ReplyDeleteHow long can such a stock carry a 3.4 P/E? Longer than I'd imagined, and the price could fall even further b/c some things just make absolutely no sense at all.
CP, can you please repeat, for my sake, why you think CADC has a bright future? It had a pretty big pullback recently and I might start scaling in if the company indeed has a bright future... Thanks!
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll use a different strategy for TBT: I canceled my buy limit orders at $35 and $34.50 and instead bought 50 shares right now at $35.15. I looked at its 1-month chart and got a feeling that $35 is an important support level. So TBT either bounces up tomorrow (in which case I should buy it right now, which I just did) or, if it breaks the $35 support level, I should not buy it on the way down but instead wait for the chart to turn bullish once again (which might happen at much lower prices).
ReplyDeleteAlso, instead of waiting for WATG to hit my buy limit at $8.05, I decided to reload right now at $8.15 the 250 shares I sold on Wednesday at $8.39. The 1-month intraday chart for WATG (at Google finance) showed that the decline in WATG has flattened out and in fact WATG might have made a double bottom at $8.1 between last Tuesday and today.
ReplyDeleteNice little breakout in CPE.
ReplyDeleteDavid, for CADC the thesis in large part involves the Chinese growth story, mountains of concrete are necessary to fuel the eminent rise of the Chinese economy and this company is in the thick of it all.
ReplyDeleteThey provided concrete and engineering expertise for the Olympic stadium and numerous other high-profile construction projects including now the high speed rail, bridges, airports, you name it.
They recently signed a supplier letter of intent with China Construction Company as well, have been purchasing portable concrete mixing equipment with their free cash flow, recently obtained a loan for their materials supply chain, etc. in addendum.
The Chinese infrastructure build out is no small project by any stretch of the imagination and CADC is no fly-by-night company from what I've been able to glean. The CEO decided to leave a large state owned construction firm to engage in his own start-up company, so his contacts within the industry and regulatory agencies are deep.
I don't see how this company could possibly not succeed in becoming an integral part of an incredible success story.
I suggest looking over their web site for additional detail, you're sure to realize the degree of potential involved.
www.china-acm.com
ReplyDeleteWell now, should I be in the least bit surprised at today's turnaround?
ReplyDeleteNot really, all we have to fear is me.
At the bar!!
ReplyDeleteSo my thinking on my BAC position, aside from it being because I think the stock is undervalued, is if we continue to get strong economic reports, then I think BAC will rocket higher $2 or $3 in a short time frame. Like for example, if we get another strong jobs report on Friday, which I expect, then the stock should leap higher. $2 or $3...big deal, right? Well, when you have about $5k in options, which I do, and another $50k in stock, then that would equate to about $12-$15k in gains. Not bad.
ReplyDeletePMI - Wow, is this company not being laid to rest after all?
ReplyDeleteAmazing how the daily story of doom and gloom grows infinitesimally convincing.
"Citing deficit, Obama to freeze federal worker pay"
ReplyDeleteThis is just shameful, the only workforce in America that's had calculable wage increases over the last decade only now begins to suffer from the slings and arrows. I'm shaking in my boots, what next for Pete's sake, change?
CP, take a look at this article about the inevitable bursting of the Chinese economic bubble:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/11/23/shadow-over-asia.aspx
Here are some excerpts from it:
VK: Sure, the growth you see today in China is there, but it’s not a sustainable growth. It's not a growth that you'll see a few years from now. That is an important point for readers to understand.
TCR: We read that note you sent about the South China Mall, which is pretty stunning. It's the second largest mall in the world but is mostly empty.
VK: That's right. But as outrageous an example as the South China Mall is, there's an even more outrageous example – namely that the Chinese built an entire city, Ordos, in Inner Mongolia for 1.5 million residents and it is completely empty. These are classic examples of the sort of excesses going on in China.
TCR: The equivalent of building bridges to nowhere, but on a very large – Chinese – scale.
VK: Exactly. There are no shortcuts to greatness. As long as they keep building new bridges, the economic numbers will register that there is growth, but at some point the piper will have to be paid, and these projects have a negative return on capital.
CP: does this change your attitude about CADC?
As I mentioned earlier today, the decline in WATG seems to be over. However, instead of purchasing, say, 1000 shares for a rebound trade, trying to make $0.75 on them, I decided to make the same $0.75 using a much more sure way: I sold before the close 10 January $7.50 puts for $0.75 (and canceled my sell limit order for 10 such puts at $1.15, as I think WATG will not get low enough to trigger that order).
ReplyDeleteThe 1-year CRM chart looks parabolic, and a lucky short position now can make a nice gain. Looking at the 5-day intraday chart, today's price movement was completely enclosed within yesterday's range, and today's close was in the middle of today's range. This makes a nice triangle, and I decided to place a sell short stop limit order for 100 shares at $42/$41.95.
ReplyDelete"CP: does this change your attitude about CADC?"
ReplyDeleteNot particularly, but we'll see.
CHN - This chart looks pretty good.
ReplyDeleteCEU - David, you'll like this one:
"Press Release Source: China Education Alliance, Inc. On Monday November 29, 2010, 5:04 pm
HARBIN, China, Nov. 29, 2010 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China Education Alliance, Inc. (NYSE:CEU - News), a China-based education resource and services company, today responded to allegations that appear in an online blog by Kerrisdale Capital.
The Company categorically denies all the allegations contained in the blog and regards such baseless accusations very seriously. While the Company, as a matter of policy, does not respond to third party research reports, it is consulting with its advisors and legal counsel on the appropriate response in order to preserve investor confidence and shareholder value. Additional information will be forthcoming. The management team, including Mr. Yu, China Education Alliance, Inc. Chairman and CEO, welcomes investors and shareholders to visit their Harbin headquarters.
The Company will explore all options available to it, including without limitation, aggressively pursuing legal remedies for damages caused to the Company and its shareholders."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Education-Alliance-prnews-78180611.html?x=0&.v=1
David - two things: (1) Good luck on the CRM trade as I have watched that, NFLX, and CMG and wondered to myself when it would be a good time to short and I think now is a great time to start; (2) I think you're talking about $142/$141.95, not $42/$41.95, right?
ReplyDelete"I think you're talking about $142/$141.95, not $42/$41.95, right?"
ReplyDeleteYes, sorry about the confusion.
Why do you think that now is a great time to start shorting CRM?
CEU - But rather than get caught up in unknowns surrounding that one, and assuming you're interested in China and possibly education in particular, I prefer looking for an entry in GEDU.
ReplyDeleteNot that I plan to though...
"Not particularly, but we'll see."
ReplyDeleteWhy not? Is your time horizon with CADC more than 5 years (so as to jump over the slowdown China might have in 2012-2013)?
David, Actually, in the case of CADC, my time horizon is focused on 2011, my understanding is they're pouring concrete like mad men to complete the HSR on schedule.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm deaf to the real economic situation in China, but the empty shopping mall and the story of Odos are old news to me, I've completed my investigation on both sides of that story and determined to my self-satisfaction, right or wrong, that the Chinese growth story is under appreciated and/or misrepresented.
Are you somewhat familiar with the Muddy Waters/etc. reports slamming a select few or group of Chinese growth stocks for what appears first to be their personal potential gain?
Interesting and revealing dialog emerges on a daily basis in such a dynamic situation.
There are two sides to every story though, and I've found over time that the least objective story often contains extra layers of fabrication and innuendo as opposed to objective ones.
I could be mistaken, it wouldn't be the first time.
Ordos - The rest of the story?
ReplyDelete"Famously dubbed China’s “empty city” in a November 2009 report by Al-Jazeera English, the town of Ordos in Inner Mongolia has become the favored example of those convinced that China is in the midst of a runaway property bubble unmoored from reality."
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/05/12/revisiting-chinas-empty-city-of-ordos/
David - On CRM, I'm looking only at valuation. It is trading at 100 times earnings and 68 times Free Cash Flow. It is trading at 16 times book value and has a PEG of almost 5.0.
ReplyDeleteI honestly haven't seen a large cap stock like the mkt cap this has trade at these valuations since 2000. It's really crazy. The amount of growth this company would have to undergo just to grow into it's current valuation is crazy. Assuming they average FCF growth of 20% a year for the next 10 years, the value of the stock today would be 10 times what the Free Cash Flow would be in 2021. In 2021!!! So today's valuation would be reasonable in 2021 if they were able to average that kind of growth. That is, if the return on the stock for the next 10 years was 0% and the company were able to grow 20% a year every single year for the next 10 years, then the valuation would be reasonable. How many people can honestly say this company will grow that much every year for the next 10 years? Technology changes so quickly that this company could be obsolete in 10 years. I doubt buyers today are giving any thought to this possibility.
Ordos - A third perspective:
ReplyDeletehttp://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/10/5/business/7158690&sec=business
CRM - TOF, I recall our discussing this one briefly not so long ago and finding myself in a weak position against your argument.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the price has obviously risen considerably since then, I never could identify an explainable theorem to justify a higher price, and so I have no regrets, either. ;)
I am placing a buy limit order for 400 shares of UNG at $5.60, just in case today's irrational pullback in UNG continues tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNew Post!
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