Friday, December 10, 2010
12/10/10 Unstoppable
Great film by Tony Scott, with spectacular shots of Pennsylvania.
What's J6P thinking now? I think a break to 11500/1250 catches their attention. A few of them have begun to mouse over the 'Buy' buttons, wondering if the market is getting away from them. Most likely, they're still in 'Chill out, plenty of time to jump out of the cab, throw the switch, and climb back in' mode. Do we pull back? I don't think so. No way the train reverses nicely to allow them to board- they get left behind. JMO.
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tof- You're out of the NFLX puts, right?
ReplyDelete2nd - yeah, i got out when it dropped to about $193 or so. Made about 80% on those.
ReplyDeleteNot bad! NFLX will be added to the SPX at tonight's close. So I wouldn't be shorting right now.
ReplyDelete2nd - NFLX had the bounce AH and in the morning from the S&P add. I'd be buying puts longer term if possible. But I'm focusing my puts on OPEN which is quite possibly the most overvalued company I have ever seen. And this is including BIDU, CRM, etc. Did you know that based on cash flow, this company is 100% more expensive than CRM and 33% more expensive than BIDU?
ReplyDeletetof- I hear you. But what's the short interest on OPEN right now? Be careful- think back to TASR.
ReplyDeleteLong MMYT at $24.82.
ReplyDeleteClosed my TYP. Long GOOG at $591.80. Commence the crash!
ReplyDelete2nd - I closed some of my OPEN puts at a small loss this morning at $4.4 (bought at $4.5). In fact, I just took the rest of my Puts off the table because the market is breaking out and as they say, discipline trumps conviction.
ReplyDeletestill long AEE, BTX, TRE, PIP...starting to get some serious action in the eminis
ReplyDeleteI hear the TSA even searched Santa's sack the other day...
ReplyDeleteWho wants to bet the following price events won't occur prior to the Fourth of July 2011?
NYMEX light crude will break $100/bbl
COMEX gold will break $1570/oz
COMEX silver will break $36/oz
These are my targets.
To continue along with my theory that banks will continue to outperform, I decided to buy 5 x February $39 Calls on JPM at $3.35.
ReplyDeleteNow long BAC, IBKC and JPM.
tof- That's more like it.
ReplyDeletebtw - anyone hear from shark? wonder what that cat is up to.
ReplyDeleteAdded a little more MMYT at $24.75.
ReplyDeleteBack in BYD at $9.72.
ReplyDeleteTOF - I guess while I suspect a pullback, I haven't really tilted my port that way. I've got a oversized position in IBKC and BAC (about 50% of my port alone for both of them) from about a week ago (although I hopped in and out of BAC)...
ReplyDeleteStarted a tiny position (300 shs) in PHM at $6.99.
ReplyDeleteNo word from sharkie, we must've pissed him off somehow?
ReplyDelete2nd - I just realized I addressed myself in addressing you...haha.
ReplyDeleteby the way, PHM is a play on home building bottoming. Plus, I suspect the chart is just way oversold.
"Come on people the snow's not that bad, I grew up in Buffalo and we drive in snow all the time there."
ReplyDeleteI've driven in the deep snow in Buffalo too, it is what it is. Driving in snow isn't quite the same thing as driving on ice.
I remember parking my car on the ice covered lot in Mitsubishi's Research Triangle Park NC facility, and finding later that evening it had slid several feet out of the space.
After selling my 150 shares of TBT on Wednesday at $39.10, I think I am entitled to partially reload 100 of them at $37.94, which I just did, starting my 4th round trip on TBT.
ReplyDeleteGood thing we all took advantage of the selling pressure in CLNE.
ReplyDeleteAMLN on the move again.
ReplyDeleteI made a good, yet bad move at the same time this morning. I decided to play a quick day trade and bought 10 x GOOG $590 calls that expire today at $1.90. I watched the stock hit the $593 resistance several times and got spooked out and sold it at $2.60. Great trade, right? Well, it broke through $593 and is now using that as support.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I decided to hop back into the OPEN trade. I bought 4 x OPEN $70 Jan Puts at $3.9.
With SWN trading now at $35.65, I just sold a couple of January $37 puts on it for $2.33, so as to add to my presently small SWN position (100 shares) at $34.67 (or make 6% on the capital backing up these puts in 1.5 months).
ReplyDeleteJB- I did a little reading on PIP. Crazy chit man. What's your basis? I'm looking at 3.34ish.
ReplyDeleteWhy is X still running on TIE is stalled out? Oh yeah, I picked TIE :)...I still like it here though.
ReplyDeletedavid was talking about nosof the other day. I was just wondering if there is a bottom on that one and if so where. It eventually should turn around no?
ReplyDeletecp, I agree with your predictions. are you in metals now?
ReplyDeletehey Mark - my ave on PIP is 3.55.
ReplyDeletevb, the 1-year chart for NOSOF doesn't look good -- there is a clear downtrend. At the same time, the current price for NOSOF is touching the lower trendline and so it might be ready for a small bounce now. As to when a LARGE bounce will occur in NOSOF like the one in July 2009 is anyone's guess. My recent purchase of NOT.V was not driven by "trading" considerations -- I was buying a natural resource stock in a value region with the idea that it should eventually bounce up.
ReplyDeleteThat dude who's been talking for 5 hours to stall the Senate vote is Fing crazy. Bet you 100 bucks he doesn't drink.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Needs to close better than $4.15, doesn't look like that's happening...
ReplyDeleteI know it's a Cramer pick, but WFT might be interesting on this pull back.
ReplyDeletevb - My metals play of choice is GMO, very speculative play here IMO.
ReplyDeleteI will buy silver though, if they push the price much lower, especially if it goes on sale around $20 or thereabouts.
vb- Mine is TIE...Really powerful mover there :)
ReplyDeleteBidding GMO @ 5.47.
ReplyDeleteClosed out RBY for $1700 profit, taking me to about $4400 for the day, total.
ReplyDeleteConsidering how badly the day started, that was pretty darned good.
Somethings happening with APOL.
ReplyDeleteGood job CB. I looked really hard at RBY this AM.
ReplyDeleteAPOL - Have a look at GEDU...
ReplyDeleteGEDU? I don't get it.
ReplyDeleteGEDU - beat up pretty badly, that's all I have to say about it aside from this could be a double bottom?
ReplyDeleteImbalances...
ReplyDeleteBUY- BAC/C/WFC/JPM
SELL- VLO/RIG/AXP
What gets me on RBY is that I THINK its undervalued for current gold prices, but if it IS, then WHY does it get beaten down so easily? Why does everyone panic and sell? Why aren't they buyers at the lows with me?
ReplyDeleteSometimes I just am in a quandary about things that seem irrational like that.
Nice little pop for MMYT.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Mark, not that I recommend this one here due to the high level of uncertainty, but you missed it by a negligible margin... ;)
ReplyDeleteRBY - Okay, but what is it in reality? I read about a certain wizard calling it a pig in a poke not so long ago.
ReplyDeleteNot that I think much of that wizard, wouldn't rate what he shares any higher than a riddle status.
Build a platform, then monetize it.
[15:37] {magoo} COCO
ReplyDelete[15:38] {Threei} (US) House Education Committee incoming chair reportedly calls for less stringent rules for 'gainful employment' (related APOL CECO COCO ESI )
[15:40] {Threei} APOL, maybe worth trying on pullback
Kyle- Are u trading with Vad in real time?
ReplyDelete2nd - No, he just published his Friday log and I saw it near EOD. Many months ago, HIG was one of Vad's go-to stocks. I'm liking the morning bounces and multiple C&H patterns in it for day trades.
ReplyDeleteJFWIW, Carter Worth felt that 1280 was 'in the bag'
ReplyDeleteDamn- 1280 would be awesome. Maybe 1350 by next spring, then 'sell in May.' Well, who knows?
ReplyDeletehmmm APOL looks very interesting. I suspect we will see some heavy shakedowns which should be buying opportunities.
ReplyDeleteMark - RE: MMYT...they tried taking it down again late in the day but a big buyer showed up: 84,000 shares in one block and that marked the bottom.
by the way, i think fads in all industries related to consumers have grown larger and faster than at any point in history because of the internet. take, for example, even a fast food chain like Chipotle. word spreads so quickly on things like this that they have hyperbolic growth right away.
ReplyDeletecp, I don't think RBY is a pig in a poke at all.
ReplyDeleteThe only downside I see is that for the most part, unless more super high grade pockets are found, it will only be 12 to 20 gr/ton ore, and it will be a while, like 2012 before it produces if it isn't bought out.
4 mm oz minimum for 1.2 billion with low build cost and low cash cost as I see it.
CB - 2012 production would be a dream in comparison with most mining projects, and I believe it's possible considering all of the infrastructure is already in proximity.
ReplyDeleteSo yes, I'm still entertaining the thought of a position in RBY.
I wasn't the joker suggesting the project is a pig in a poke.
Hey, you don't suppose the participants in the Cancun climate conference flew to Mexico on privately chartered jets do you?
ReplyDeleteI expect most of them rode their donkeys, don't you?
I think it's the Cancun Climate Carnival, no?
ReplyDeleteCB: Did you look at the other gold miners today?
ReplyDeleteI suspect RBY (after the recent run-up) was the source of funds for three or four other big run-ups today.
Paramount up 40%, MGH up 23% at one point.
FF
Jeremy Siegel Channels Milton Friedman: Thumbs Up On QE2 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5027 comments) on Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:36 #75815
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/282nbzb
cp, yes, the other miners were being pumped on the RBY message board.
ReplyDeleteI think that people are just afraid to hold anything that seems to be going down, and in the case of RBY its correcting till the shares are taken by someone that thinks they are cheap enough to hold long term. I'm just saying that *I* don't know if it goes lower before that inflection point is found of not, but has still been ratcheting lower.
Its going to need a bunch of money and take quite a while if we are waiting for it to become a profitable producer. I think they are trying to shop it, but thus far the big money folks haven't voiced any interest that I know of.
RBY - I'm sure the big money folks would love to make everyone believe they're disinterested.
ReplyDeletedo you think mark madoff really hung himself with his child in the back room?
ReplyDeleteamazing what the sheeple will swallow
Re: Mark Madoff Suicide: Bernie Madoff's Son Found Hanged In Apt
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5028 comments) on Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:26 #75843 (in reply to #75832)
NYU- The second half of the headline is probably a fact, but do we necessarily buy the first? An email message (even if acknowledged with a response) would not have guaranteed his 2-year-old daughter's safety- it only takes minutes for an emergency to develop, and I question whether he would have taken the risk.
vb- Good point.
ReplyDelete"Jeremy Siegel Channels Milton Friedman: Thumbs Up On QE2"
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, here is an alternate view that is really worth reading:
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/12/10/unintended-consequences.aspx
Here is a quote from it:
"Ben. Get a clue. The world is not responding to your theories. What it is doing is getting worried about a central bank that will debase a currency. I agree that your current QE is not all that much in the grand scheme of things, but it is perception and NOT the actual use of those new dollars that is driving rates up."
Davis, isn't the U$D currency already over valued vs others pegged to it undervalued?
ReplyDeleteElse, why the peg and why aren't these currencies traded in the free market?
Once these questions are addressed, then we can discuss the subject of debasement.
Re: Positive Attitude newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5029 comments) on Sun, 12/12/2010 - 18:40 #75856 (in reply to #75855)
ReplyDelete4ever- A 'positive attitude' is the only 'tude worth cultivating. I could write a treatise on the subject, using nothing but my own experiences to support that contention.
MCOX - Still in the dumper but perhaps putting in a bottom? Seems to have flattened out...
ReplyDeleteGEDU - Not too sure about this one, Fell hard, bounced, then fell back again.
ReplyDeleteCCME - I wonder if these guys have considered doing pump-top style news?
ReplyDeleteWell, China hasn't tightened, just promised to be prudent...
ReplyDeleteHey guys. Mark here....
ReplyDeleteSpent the entire weekend working on "corrections" from the 2nd appraisal for the "correction re-inspection" on Tues. Un-Fing believable for a property that has been appraised twice now and the lower of the 2 still had a LTV ration of .50.
I was informed of the corrections that needed to be done on Thursday, with a clompetion date by Tue. Including exterior painting. No fucking way anyone but me, a contractor, could have pulled this off in 4 days. 5 of my guys were here both days, and 4 subs and their crews.
I kinda decided to say, oh yeah?, you want what would cost the average Joe 20K in work done in 4 days to close a .50 LTV loan? Couldn't be that the rate today is almost a point higher, now would it?
I'm the best friend in the world to anyone who has my back, F with me or my family or friends and I will work my tail off to make sure YOU LOSE!!
The best part? Cost me about 2K and some built up good will.
Mark, I thought the place was lookin' a little dingy but I knew you'd eventually get around to it... ;)
ReplyDeleteMark- Damn, how much longer can they delay this thing? Good luck with the reinspection.
ReplyDeleteNDQ futures just turned green.
ReplyDelete2nd- Thanks. It will be fine. When I get pushed against a wall I usually over compensate. At our next get together I'll bring the 2 appraisals. One of the things they wanted me to fix was the weather stripping on my front door. Are you kidding me? Is this a loan or the fucking energy policy??
ReplyDeleteOK, I'm done.
It's cold as hell outside in the USA, please feel free to crank up the nat gas furnaces people!!!
JCI - Johnson owns York HVAC products - Oh now I get it, the energy tax credit should really set this one off.
ReplyDeleteWish I'd thought about that several months ago...
A warning from Hussman today:
ReplyDeleteIn recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been hostile to stocks. Last week, the situation became much more pointed. Past instances have been associated with such uniformly negative outcomes that the current situation has to be accompanied by the word "warning."
The historical instances corresponding to these conditions are as follows:
December 1972 - January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the next 21 months)
August - September 1987 (followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months)
July 1998 (followed abruptly by an 18% loss over the following 3 months)
July 1999 (followed by a 12% market loss over the next 3 months)
January 2000 (followed by a spike 10% loss over the next 6 weeks)
March 2000 (followed by a spike loss of 12% over 3 weeks, and a 49% loss into 2002)
July 2007 (followed by a 57% market plunge over the following 21 months)
January 2010 (followed by a 7% "air pocket" loss over the next 4 weeks)
April 2010 (followed by a 17% market loss over the following 3 months)
December 2010 ???
We certainly are aware of trend-following models that are positive here, but these things are testable, and when we do so, we find that they have performed less well over the long-term, and with much larger drawdowns, than our Market Climate approach (if that wasn't the case, we would be using them instead). As I noted in recent weeks, we've introduced robust modifications that broaden the number of Climates we define, and will allow us to take moderate, transitory exposure to market fluctuations much more frequently. So despite our present defensiveness, we expect to have more sensitivity to short and intermediate-term fluctuations as we move forward. Clearing the overbought and overbullish components of the present environment, without a significant breakdown in overall market internals, would be the quickest way to prompt a more constructive stance, even in what we view as an overvalued market. All of that said, we are hard defensive here.
In the light of Hussman's warning, I decided to place a sell stop limit order at $14/13.98 for my remaining 400 shares of AA, which I acquired at $14.90 some months ago. I usually wait until a stock rises to give me a decent profit before selling, but this time I am placing caution ahead of habit and greed.
ReplyDeleteMore on "Jeremy Siegel Channels Milton Friedman: Thumbs Up On QE2." Here is a quote from that article:
ReplyDelete"If we cannot use long-term rates to judge the success of quantitative easing, how can we tell if QE is working? We can look at the dollar, commodity prices, but most important, the money supply and quantity of loans issued by the banking system. If we see those variables increase, we know that the increase in reserves is finding its way through the monetary system."
The John Mauldin's article I cited early tonight has a chart of consumer credit excluding Fed loans, which is going down in a straight line since Lehman's collapse. So even by Jeremy Siegel's own most important criterion, QE2 is not working...
Also, I am placing a sell stop limit order at $37.5/$37.4 (just below Thursday's spike low) for the 100 shares of TBT I purchased on Friday at $37.94.
ReplyDeleteFinally, I am placing a buy stop limit order for 5 February $76 puts on IWM at $2.90/$3.00 (IWM has been on a tear since late August, and especially over the past week.
ReplyDeleteOn Wednesday and on Friday, SLV retested the 27.50 level, which looks like a short-term support level on the intraday price chart. Since I have a large exposure to silver through ECU.TO, I am placing a sell short stop limit order at $27.45/27.40 for 300 shares, to complement my current 300 share short position in SLV (which I opened at $25.95).
ReplyDeleteJeffrey Sauts new weekly article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeff-saut-economic-growth-economic-indicator/12/13/2010/id/31650
IBKC is mentioned positively!
Regarding OPEN > I have decided to sell the 4 x Puts at $3.10 that I bought at $3.90 on Friday and will stay on the sidelines for now with that stock. I had a larger put position in the company that I closed on Friday morning when it went down to the $71 area and feel its better to be prudent while the market is breaking out.
Re: Positive Attitude newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5030 comments) on Mon, 12/13/2010 - 10:19 #75896 (in reply to #75882)
ReplyDeleteGrym- What works for individuals can work for entire populations as well. Consider what the US might accomplish with its citizenry aligned and focused on turning the economy around. Unlikely but not impossible. Is that Obama's job? Well, I would say it's up to Obama to inspire the vision. But it's up to each one of us to make it happen in our own lives and communities.
Added to my PHM at $7.03 that I bought on Friday at $7.00.
ReplyDeletePretty much going to sit on my hands today. Still have a lot of work to do here.
ReplyDeleteNatty bummer for sure.
Not much of anything going on here aside from losing power a few minutes ago.
ReplyDeleteMark - Good luck with your refinance, hope you get the good rate.
Re: Positive Attitude
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Grym (2872 comments) on Mon, 12/13/2010 - 10:35 #75898 (in reply to #75896)
2nd,
I think we need to go with what simply IS... and for the future go with the odds.
As for Obama's vision: Hope & Change has worked! (For him, not us.)
Oh, it snowed here last night too, rained all yesterday then turned into a few inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteNot sure how long it'll take to melt, will probably be a while, supposed to be getting colder air from up north.
Re: Positive Attitude newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5031 comments) on Mon, 12/13/2010 - 10:47 #75901 (in reply to #75898)
ReplyDeleteGrym- We determine what is. I say that from experience, not from the perch of psychological theory. If we don't believe we can enact change, why bother trying? 'Hope' is another way of saying 'dream.' Stop dreaming, and life is over.
Exactly, life is far from over and people are picking up the pieces and moving on with their lives.
ReplyDeleteNow if only we can get some follow through from our regulatory agencies... They really need to make some good decisions for once, not based upon their own personal needs.