Wednesday, December 1, 2010

12/1/10 Some Kind Of Rally



Tonight it's the hard driving bass line.

83 comments:

  1. David - I think I'm going to open single put positions in OPEN and CRM tomorrow. I'm going to wait for a high volume spike up confirmation or high volume reversal on CMG before doing the same.

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  2. dow up 250.00? wow!

    Just caught this headline and I say again, this is bigger than just a college kid posting confidental info.

    WikiLeaks website kicked off Amazon's servers- AP

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  3. Good to hear India's cranking right along, I've been concerned inflation may slow progress but perhaps inflation is an issue specific to countries attempting to peg their currencies.

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  4. I am not a chart reader but my Hunch is I would expect volatility going forward-

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  5. GMO - I suspect some rats are deserting the ship until after Monday's permit hearing.

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  6. 'Textbook?' It's ALWAYS textbook. The thing is, each time it has to appear we're going down for a REALLY GOOD REASON. Then it's over (again), leaving behind the 'shake down, gap up' footprint that we see so often...

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  7. Mark - Looks like RAS has had some insider buying recently (as in past 2 days). Maybe its time to buy again? There are so many variables with that company's financials, though, that I can't really figure out if they can make money or not.

    I was wondering if any of you commodities guys can take a look at this stock: ADES. I've followed them for like 3 years now and have traded them a couple of times. I really think this has the potential to be a huge winner long term but I can't seem to figure out why the company's stock is stuck in neutral. I read that NY Times article about how coal producers are turning to nat gas because of cost and tougher emmissions laws so maybe that is having an impact on them. But if that's the case, then wouldn't the coal stocks be performing poorly? Anyway, ADES is very tiny and anything can move the needle substantially for them. They recently signed a license deal with Arch Coal which could be huge for them if its successful.

    Any thoughts would be mucho appreciatedo.

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  8. TOF- RAS.. Yeah, I looked at it today also. Let me know if you can figure it out. I can say this...MOG just bought $3M worth of distressed debit in the retail area. I heard that today.

    NFLX- Look no further than LLNW for the problem they face.

    OPEN- Wouldn't touch that long with a ten foot pole.

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  9. ADES- I guess their problem is no one believes there is any such thing as clean coal. Goes againts MOG's natty take in regards to the EPA.

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  10. Mark - remind me again: what does MOG do and what does that stand for again?

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  11. They talked about the coal stockpiles for the utilities being low on Fast Money today and they were recommending ANR and MEE. See Fast Money's comments below and note how they talk about IF IT'S A COLD WINTER. This is the same story for natty. I may have missed it but so far I have not seen any commentary calling for a below normal winter.

    "The commodity has been on a tear and will only become more valuable, Weiss said. Coal stock piles for utilities continue to decline, he explained. If it's a cold winter, utilities are going to have to buy more coal and that will drive up the price. Meanwhile, Chinese demand continues to drive prices upward."

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  12. And one more natty comment before I go, per Paribas. Of interest to me is the comment about the US being a net exporter to the North. I need to find out more about that.

    "Natural gas bounced back up today on moderate volume and a small increase in volatility. There was a lot to look at today in the other markets that surround Natural gas. There was
    good news from the economies of China and Europe and the US unemployment numbers were lower than expected. When you combine the feeling of improving economic scenarios
    with Bentek putting out a report that not only are Canadian imports of Natural gas to the US
    dropping but we are quickly heading toward becoming a net exporter of this product to the
    north, it is easy to become optimistic about it in the long term. In the short term, the weather is supposed to get cold next week in the eastern half of the country but the mild predictions for the entire winter are unchanged. So the return of demand for Natural gas may take a little while but there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel."

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  13. The 5-year chart for NOT.V gives me a feeling that it is ready for a bounce. I have already purchased 2000 shares of NOSOF for $1.01 a few weeks ago and now I decided to place another buy limit order for 3000 shares at $1.02, so as to bring my total position in NOSOF to 10K shares.

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  14. Goldman: Here Are our First ‘Top Trades’ of 2011

    1) Short the dollar vs the Chinese Yuan.
    2) Long large-cap U.S. banks
    3) Long High Yield
    4) Long Japanese stocks
    5) Long Commodities

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  15. Bought a very large position in BAC, since banks are the only ones that I find to be extremely undervalued. I bought BAC at 11.43. I also bought Feb $11 Calls at $1.11 average.

    I also bought 1 x Jan $140 put on CRM at $7.4.

    I also bought 2 x Jan $70 Puts on OPEN at $4.5.

    Still holdings all NFLX puts.

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  16. Sold 1 of my NFLX puts at $6.8 that I bought at $4.3. Added 3 x OPEN Feb $70 puts at $2.2.

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  17. Added more BAC Feb $11 Calls at $1.16.

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  18. Out of all of my NFLX puts. Made about 40% on all of them. Moved more into the BAC Feb $11 Calls at $1.17. I believe BAC is finally ready to move to the $14 range again.

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  19. Added more BAC at $11.55. Now have a full position in the company.

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  20. so many different flavors of trades in the blog.

    cheapy are you in cash? what are you doing?

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  21. tof, can you explain your reasoning for bac? I agree banks are undervalued but just curious why a full position in bac and why today. sorry to be nosy but trying to learn other viewpoints

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  22. tof- Good luck with BAC. The phrasing I used when talking with my wife about it this morning- 'That POS is finally catching a bid!' I'll feel a lot better about it when it's in the high teens.

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  23. Natty storage shows withdrawals of 23, slightly bearish but looks like a nonevent at the moment.

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  24. Technically BAC won't be without a fight at 12.79 - 13.00 and again at 14.80. If it can make it through the first overhead I think TOF has a chance at 14.80.

    So far I've made a decent dinner out of it.

    FF

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  25. vb - nothing more than a feeling on BAC. i feel like it shouldn't be trading at 1/2 book value (i know, i know, book value is tainted). i feel like the biggest bank in the US should be worth more than $110 Billion. i feel like everything negative has been thrown at it and it hasn't been able to fall below $11. i feel like the US economy is finally getting strong enough to support domestic banks. and i feel like this is a good price to buy at, given the 40% drop from highs.

    sorry, a lot of times i just have a feeling...nothing more.

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  26. VB:
    BAC is like Garp buying the house after the plane crashes into it.

    It's been "pre-disastered".

    FF

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  27. by the way, i think with NFLX crashing in the past 2 days, all high fliers are susceptible. the market moves higher on the banks/beaten down blue chips. that's why i'm short OPEN/CRM and long BAC. i think CMG is going the way of NFLX and it would be wise to buy some puts in OPEN.

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  28. BAC turned green for me @ 11.45.

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  29. Chickie, Thanks for bringing my attention to PAL. Great day.
    RB

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  30. ARO seems like it's getting whacked a little harder than it should today. Thoughts??

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  31. Yeah I like that analogy- 'pre-diastered.'

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  32. bac,

    TOF, your intuition is right on since bac went up right after you posted. I noticed the volume increased too.

    For me, I am worried about wiki leaker and ptsd from my own bad bank trades. kudos on having the insight and guts to follow through

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  33. david, nosof. you are another one who is a good picker but really? I can't find any info on this one

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  34. Has the santa clause rally begun??

    On another note, I like overstock.com. not sure why so low other than lawsuits. what do you think?

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  35. OPEN is really starting to fall apart. It is down $2.5 from the open. I think this is going to be a really good on to short / buy puts in. CRM seems really strong so I think I'm going to give that one the benefit of my doubt and will only keep the 1 x January put I have in it just in case people come to their senses about the valuation of it.

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  36. Just cash and some DGP, right now.

    Made money on TZA both yesterday and this am.

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  37. LVS - potential DB @ 49.54...

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  38. ok, this is my last post -

    fwiw

    Latest News Headlines for Northgate Minerals Corp
    Northgate Target Raised To C$4.20 From C$3.60 By Mackie >NXG
    Thursday 12/02/2010 9:43 AM ET - T

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  39. Man, look at REDF. 50% move in 1.5 days.

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  40. LVS - sold too soon, but LVS had a nice up-shot off of a triple bottom at 49.54

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  41. Casinos are dropping like a rock right now.

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  42. LVS - Glad I didn't overstay my welcome at the tables...

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  43. (flyonthewall)
    Sands China , an indirect subsidiary of Las Vegas Sands , disclosed it received a letter from the Macao Government advising that its application for a land concession for Parcels 7 and 8 on Cotai has not been approved. Sands China has 15 days to apply to the Chief Executive of Macao for a review of the decision, and has 30 days to appeal the decision to the Macao Courts. Sands China said it is considering all options available to it as set forth in the letter.

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  44. Long BYD at $9.09.

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  45. Sorry, looks like it filled at $9.10. I'm buying the weakness as a result of the LVS news.

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  46. I'm pretty much almost positive that OPEN is a great short at these prices. As such, I decided to sell my BYD and shorted OPEN at $73.10. I believe it will crash 50% over the course of a couple of weeks. I'm not sure when the crash will happen but I'm staking my claim it happens soon. The key is watching a break of the 20 DMA. When that happens it will be swift and I will pile on at that point. 20 DMA is $68 and change.

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  47. GMO might be trapped here for a while. 85,000 ask at 5.40.

    CP- Do you think the decision will actually come on Monday?

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  48. TOF- You could find shares? How many? I might take a shot here but I'd have to get them through a Schwab broker. It will cost me and will have to be a large enough amount for them to find the shares.

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  49. I see the market is up strongly today because of economic optimism, but CSCO, which is a very good representation of the overall economy, is down -- isn't it crazy? These are the kind of opportunities that should not be missed -- when the market eventually gets tired of pumping up silly stocks on economic optimism, the traders will looks around for "overlooked" stocks, will find CSCO and it will have a blast. If the economy is indeed improving slowly, then CSCO *will* rocket at some point.

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  50. Any of you guys follow FRO? Might be a really nice basing pattern here that traders might look for to get long something other than the leaders.

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  51. REDF is having another good day. It hit today my sell limit order at $4.40 for the 500 shares I bought at $3.40, giving me a total profit of $1090 for buying its recent pullback.

    It is *indeed* much easier to make money on the long side than on the short side. I made a few K on REDF during its first rocket, then only $400 or so by shorting it on the way down (even though I was *sure* that it will go significantly down from its peak at $6), and now, once again, I made some decent bucks on the way up.

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  52. vb -- I am buying NOT.V purely on a gut feeling that I am getting from its 5-year price chart. Its decline has flattened out and it is ready now for another spike up. We saw the same thing in REDF and ESLR recently (first spike up), now REDF has moved on to the second spike, and I am currently waiting for ESLR to spike up and for NOT.V to spike up.

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  53. Incidentally, WATG, CADC, and other Chinese crappy stocks are ready for a spike up as well -- their decline has flattened out, and if the US economy is indeed improving, then US consumers will keep sponsoring the Chinese exports and so the traders should start buying crappy Chinese stocks in a short order.

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  54. Still large sell orders popping up in ARO.

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  55. Nice to see UNG recover from the dead this afternoon -- it made a clear higher low at $5.78 yesterday on a daily chart and is now ready to make a higher high above $6.20. I just feel a distinct change in the UNG behavior from the bearishness that permeated it in autumn.

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  56. Thanks David. Where did you find a list for these?

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  57. Scottrade changed all my Canadian stocks into OTC ones, so if I know a symbol it means I have that stock in my Scottrade account. :)

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  58. Mark - I was able to get short OPEN through a broker in Schwab. I only did 200 shares. I'm ok with the commission because I think the stock will crash. As I'm typing this, I'm watching my CRM begin to tank and NFLX is giving way to more weakness. I think it's only a matter of a few days before OPEN tanks.

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  59. TOF- Thanks! I'll call them. How much did Schwab charge you?

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  60. TOF - Not sure man. It was hard to get the shares though. I must have gotten lucky because I tried again just now and couldn't. I also tried in TD Ameritrade and couldn't.

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  61. Mark - you may want to just go the puts route. I only have 6 x Puts - 3 Jan $70 puts at $4.5 and 3 Dec $70 puts at $2.2. So I have a total of $2k at risk, which is manageable and will prevent me from getting spooked out sooner than I otherwise might with a big short position on the stock (which would probably yeild the same return if the stock craters to $50 or below in the next few weeks).

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  62. Crap..You must have gotten lucky TOF. I just tried to get 300 and was told no go. He has my cell # and will call me if any OPEN up :)

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  63. A couple of mid sized bid blocks of GMO have just came on. It looks like a battle of .01 :)

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  64. RINO...

    12:31PM RINO Intl common stock to be delisted by NASDAQ Stock Market (RINO) 6.07 : NASDAQ stated that its staff's determination was based upon the following:co's announcement that its previously filed financial reports for fiscal 2008, 2009 and year-to-date 2010 could no longer be relied upon; the admission that it had not entered into certain previously disclosed contracts; the failure to respond to the NASDAQ staff's request for additional information regarding allegations raised by the Muddy Waters report.

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  65. 122.95 was the recent high for SPY.

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  66. Yeah, Mark, maybe its not luck that I got those shares :) Maybe I should just take the cue that there are too many people short the stock and it's a crowded trade...I tried again but tried calling TD Ameritrade and ETrade and no luck.

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  67. Kyle- Did you take a shot at ASTM?

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  68. Newbies from today's Landry chart session.
    FTK, LNG (Mark should like this one), DNN and PUDA.
    Still trading URRE/URZ, URZ got hammered yesterday on dilution for financing, which only means they are upping production.
    Traded HNUZD today for some decent coin, Thanks to David. Also holding UNG.

    FF

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  69. ASTM - just have 100sh @ 2.62. I'm trying to work my way out of this swing trade way of thinking.

    APWR - small position though :---)

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  70. Kyle- I have .61 as the close and .95 intra-day.

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  71. OCLR - broke above the 10 level...finally

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  72. SPY - Oh, you're looking at early Nov. By recent high I thought u meant today....as in last 2 hrs

    :--)

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  73. bought a little RBY and DGP near the close

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  74. Ok, I was definitely lucky getting any shares of OPEN to short because I tried about 10 times in 3 different accounts to add more shares to my short position and no luck. That tells me that eventually the game of levitating higher and higher on absurd valuations will end. Timing is the key with this, though, as puts can easily expire worthless. I'm playing a small put position on the hopes I'm good with timing, but I have decided to keep a small piece of money set aside for the day when it crashes through it's 20 DMA and is poised to head much lower.

    Here is a good article on Whitney Tilson's short thesis on OPEN:
    http://derailedcapitalism.com/2010/11/14/whitney-tilsons-november-newsletter/

    I suspect it will take a while to get this lower, though, because 40% of its float is shorted.

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  75. Be careful boys...all it takes is someone with a lot more working capital to run up the price of OPEN and start a decent short squeeze to sell into.
    A lot of shares held short isn't always what you want....
    FF

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  76. FF - I totally agree that OPEN can go higher. So I think it makes sense to keep a put position small if you want to play it. We all know the stock will come down...it's just a matter of when.

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  77. CISG - caught some of Vad's group attention today

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