Talk about masochism, try heating your home with a heat pump (err, milking machine) when it's 20* outside...
CSCO - Man, just look at that super low forward P/E.Almost as favorable as ATNI/CADC and probably is, considering CSCO's prowess...
Nearly as ugly as the hood on a Chevy volt looks when the car's got a dead lithium battery:http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/3472817/2/istockphoto_3472817-milking-machine.jpgLooks like a damn high-school science project, don't it?
I admire everyone here trying to day trade a global meltdown and reconstruction. Not to be negative, just looking at the big picture (5-10 years)Liked Kaimu's post. was it today> ? gee time flies when the world is merging so fastlater
Now's probably a good time to look at the max pain calculator, isn't this op-ex week?
vb - Aren't corporate profits on the increase?
CSCO - MP=$20ATNI - MP=$40BAC - MP=$12
VB- I admire you if you read Kaimu's entire post today!! Gold star for your tree this holiday season :)
In the "You can't make this shit up" category, Michael Moore posted Assange's bail.
Sorry, part of the bail. Not sure how much."Do you need fries with this cash?".
SPY - MP=$120
I happen to support free speech and wikileaks. okay I said itbut that is me and I am different. corporate profits? bbby <-> who was holding that bag todaydrinks on me order up
MP - Yeah, from the options max pain calculator we(I) used to play with but never actually made money off of.
Bail - somewhere ~$350k if I heard correctly.kaimu - I'd read his stuff if there were something positive in it, Chicken Little has been calling for the sky to fall for as long as I can remember and probably longer but it just hasn't happened.Didn't we already have our black swan? I thought it was behind us...
max pain?being unemployed for 1.5 + yearslovevb
bby - Wally World and EBAY cleaned their clock, or did no one buy electronics the past few months?Internet commerce baby, UPS/FDX
VB- You know me, I'm just pointing out what I think is funny.CP- How is max pain figured anyway? There was a guy at CC that used to post about it all the time. I think he's gone.
employment - Hope I never catch that again!
wikileaks - I have no problem with honesty as long as it's all taken in context, sometimes stuff gets leaked accidentally on purpose too...
max pain happens when both put and call holders win near zero from the way I understand it.I haven't made money off following it though, but never spent much time with it for a proper analysis.http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
mark,i miss the free speech and laughs in the underground on 2nd aveI want to make bourbon balls or rum balls . anyone wanting a gift, send me your mailing addresss aka 2nd or markie
It would be fair to consider how hard it has been to refinance my home loan considering I have a l/v of .5 and more cash than the loan amount as a warning sign. Yikes.
VB- We need a dinner!! Send me some bourbon balls!!BTW- What the heck are they :)
vb - the gift is in the gab.Schweddy balls:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXSyzeVWueI
Line up boys for the BB's. I have everyone's email except TOF's I think!!!
They're good Mark, you haven't lived until you know what they are.I suggest you get busy living, my friend. ;)
I prefer the traditional rum type, they're like a home made doughnut center kinda but more dense and flavored with rum extract.
CP- I guess so. I kinda live vicariously through my kids now. No, no, I'm not one of those crazy lunatic parents at sporting events. That happens in the privacy of our own asylum :)
"Rum Balls are a no-bake confection and are a delicious mixture of nuts, cookie crumbs, sugar, cocoa powder, corn syrup, and rum"
Mark - I was just giving you a rough time. Please don't tell me you've never had Swiss cheese though, or I'm liable to rip you a new one... ;)
okay mark and everyone, I have to leave this friday by noon to get out before the weekend snow storm I will stay till dec 26 so let's make a time and place I will bring the bourbon balls my favorite place is closed http://www.yelp.com/biz/la-rondalla-restaurant-and-cantina-san-franciscoalternates?
I once bought a ham and Sweese cheese sandwich from a 7-Eleven store in Alexandria (couldn't resist that one).I bet you've never had one, it's the only one I've ever seen...Doesn't that get your marketing juices flowing?
You're completely forgiven though, after all, you live in wine country for Christ sake (we should be surprised you even know what rum and bourbon are) and for all I know you may not have even had a grandmother.
vb - It should be some secretive place, unknown to the general public where transfer of said goods can take place with no one knowing the wiser. ;)Gotta make it fun ya know!!!
hey mark - let me know ur email address and i'll shoot you an email. i've been looking high and low for a good long term play and the only one i can come up with is BCPC but i've been watching that one for a year now and there hasn't ever been much of a pullback. that's one solid company right there. i was inspired to look because i started thinking about how awesome it would have been to buy BBY back in 1990 so i started looking at their SEC filings to see if their growth could have been seen ahead of time...filings only go back to 1993 but it was pretty clear the company was on the right track. they were growing revenues 80% annually in the early 90's. anyway, g'night everyone.
cp,yeah, like a dark seedy place off second ave. okay2nd, when you read this please choose the place and then send us an encypted message with the time and place. fun fun fun!happy santa clause and hope to see everyone soon. gnite
CP- Oh, I get it. It's kinda like a Port ball!! Now that sounds good. We have those all the time here, with cheese of course :)VB- Call me tomorrow on my cell. If you don't have the number still email me. Love ya'.
TOF - In the theme of long term growth, perhaps even more impressive than BBY, with an extra twist of your very favorite internet sugar and spices, I present to you...Wait for it....MCOX
TOF- email@example.com.I've gotten pretty long here in the money center banks and a housing recovery with PHM. If the market is a forward looking mechanism spring is 6 months off.I've also just interviewed for a project I told you about that was 3 years on hold.One interesting note that's funny. Everbank is doing my refinance. It was WFC the first time. I've never heard of Everbank before and the day I knew it was then, I saw an add on Bloomberg for them.
All right CP. I'm going to bed with VB...Ah, like VB. Could you please pick a stock that actually has some liquidity?? Ciao.
markie, you are funny. did you eat too many rum balls?haha. sure I'all call ya manana
I have just returned from the warm and sunny Hawaii (where I was too hot in a t-shirt yesterday) to the cold and rainy California (where I have to put on two sweat shirts in the evening *inside* my house). It's depressing. The only bright side of it is that it makes our Hawaii getaway feel really great, by contrast. :) We are seriously thinking about going there next year for the whole month of December, with my wife taking care of kids during the day like she is doing in CA so that I could telecommute to work, just like I always do.
After a good day for TBT today, in order not to let a profit turn into a loss, I am moving up my sell stop limit order to $38.40/$38.30 (just below today's spike low) for the 100 shares I purchased at $37.94 on Friday.
When TBT spiked 4% within a minute after the QE2 announcement during the last FOMC meeting, it was obvious to me that the move will have legs. So why was I using such small position sizes for TBT? I really need to learn to be brave and use larger position sizes when I see that my entry is unusually favorable. We all can tell whether we are buying something purely for speculative reasons or whether we lucked out to stumble onto something that has a great future but was recently oversold AND has just formed a nice base from which it can spring up, right? Are you all using larger position sizes for entries that feel unusually favorable and rare?
Mark- I'm running out of video links. How does one post an image (photo, drawing, screenshot) in combination with a lead post?
Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Wednesday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5045 comments) on Wed, 12/15/2010 - 09:27 #76020 (in reply to #76019)BH- Actually, you'll get 150 graphs, 10 journal articles (researched and mostly written by post-graduate groupies), and 30 densely-worded and indecipherable opinions. Then after the fact, you'll get one triumphant interview recounting how he/she nailed it.
David - I rarely use small positions. I can't keep track of more than 4 or 5 positions as it is.I should clarify: if it's options I never use large positions (i.e., more than $5k). I've been going with options more lately because I don't have a great tell on the market direction so I don't want to put as much at risk.
Bought 3 x SPY March 2011 $126 puts at $6.14. Added more TYP at $24.72; now have an oversized position in TYP.
As far as my schedule over the next two weeks, I'm tapped. I'll see what I can come up with. Let me know if a Sunday lunch or a weekday dinner works for y'all.
Position size: From the recent Landry book.All positions should not place at risk more than 1-2% of the total portfolio.This means there's no reason to use the ultras and all positions have the same risk. Stops are determined by historic volatility and position size is then determined by the entry, stop and the difference between the two.Using a 100K port example, no position (barring gaps down) would risk more then 2K when stopped out.FF
FF - I disagree with that take on position size. How can someone honestly be able to know everything about 75 different positions? I think its beyond the capacity of the brain. Long 2 x RIMM Jan $60 Puts at $3.3.
Long 3 x OPEN $70 January Puts at $4.7.
Because there are not 75 positions.Where do you get 75 positions?100K wouldn't buy 75 positions. The RISK is 2K, NOT the position size. If you are stopped out, the most you should lose is 2K. IOW, the STOP (difference between entry and stop) is no more than 2K. The entry is set by technicals and the stop is set by historic volatility (just outside normal noise).The portfolio now has maybe 8 positions.FF
FF - oh, gotcha. i was thinking u were saying 1-2% is the max position size. my bad.
Example: Stock entry is 22.45. Stop loss is 20.45. Therefore stop is $2. Position should be 1000 shares (or less if your risk tolerance is less) ie: 500 shares if your tolerance is 1%.
FF- Thanks for the info, that's valuable stuff. btw- Has your research into possible ex-pat sites allowed you to narrow it down to 2-3 choices?
2nd- I use screencast and it has an embed link. You basically copy the link to the new post. That's it. It's also free.
We could even do brunch on Sunday at Joann's Cafe in South City (the only place in NCal I've been able to find where they make an omelet I can actually eat). Then find a seedy bar for serious conversation.
I'm looking seriously at Belize and certain places in Costa Rica.
2nd- I'll talk with VB today and see if we can work something out. Time is tight for me as well, but something during the week could work.
How did your 'reinspection' work out?
Long 7 x SPY $126 Dec 31 Puts at $2.56.
Dang. Left $700 bucks on BORN.BTW- My old blackberry took a dumper this weekend. I wound up with the droid x. Man, it's really nice. I have all my positions on one app. and it updates real time. This could increase my life span dramatically. Now I only have to check one page zipping down the highway instead of 20.
2nd- Fine, thanks. As usual I did far more than they asked for, but to do it right, it took a lot of work. We should close thur/fri.
Mark - yeah, i just got the droid 2. it's a solid phone. i used to have this old free phone and refused to go the smartphone route but now i'm hooked, unfortunately.
By the way, I'm placing bets today that we sell the news on the passage of the tax bill. With a potential warning notice on our country's debt from Moody's should the tax bill be passed, I think any rally will be very short lived.
Congrats, Mark. That rate will probably stand as the lowest in our lifetime. We'll look back in 5-10 years and shake our heads at how low they went.
2nd- Man, it would seem like it. Combining the 2 lowered my monthly payment by about $500/month. I'll do like you are. Use it if I have to or prepay it. I expect to be done with it in 10 years max. Now if interest rates really move up, I'll obviously use the extra cash elsewhere.At the close.
Flat - flat, flat, flat!I bet we stay essentially flat until Jan, when tax loss selling is reversed. Then we go up.
Added 3 x OPEN January $70 Puts at $4.4. Avg is now $4.6. If the other high fliers is any guide, this will succumb to selling pressure and drop to the low 60's soon.
Ok, added 2 more OPEN puts at $4.5. Now I have 10 total puts at a $4.60 avg.
As TBT keeps going up, there is a good chance that the market will roll over *just because of the rising yields*, which will in turn cause the yields to come down significantly, just as it happened in April 2010. So I decided to cut short my fourth round trip in TBT and just sold at $39.80 the 100 shares I purchased at $37.94, and also covered at $0.19 the January $34 put I sold last week at $1.62.
David - I think that might be a smart move, so long as the rising yields don't turn into a situation like Ireland/Greece, in which case it would be smart to hold on to TBT. I personally think we're at our max for debt spending. We need to quit feeding the beast and my sense is the market is saying this.
I think the reason I drastically reduced my position sizes is because I occasionally start adding on weakness instead of getting stopped out, as it happened with UNG. The only reason I was able to survive the autumn collapse in UNG and in fact buy a lot of HNUZF right at the bottom (I have already offloaded those shares at a decent profit) is because I was using very small position sizes (but by the end, my position grew to be quite large as a fraction of my port). So I guess I need to use a better discipline and determine, from the start, whether I am going to get myself stopped out or whether I am going to scale in, and use 10X position size when I am willing to place a stop. As it is, my 4 profitable round trips on TBT increased my port by at most 1% -- talk about lost opportunity...
well, unless things turn around in the bond market (i.e., TLT) or GOOG/AAPL/AMZN/FCX/CRM turn around soon, I have a feeling today could get ugly. then again, I'm now about 75% short so I'm biased.
CCK - Remember when we were trading this one @ $24?
Forgot to mention: my buy limit order for 300 shares of UNG at $5.80 was triggered today. So now you guys know why I use such small position sizes with UNG. :) Incidentally, this allowed me to scale into (once or even twice) every pullback in UNG since its October low and then reduce my exposure at higher prices. Hopefully, this week's pullback is going to be just that -- a pullback that sets the stage for a thrust to new highs...
VECO - Bounced off the 50SMACREE - Has done very wellI wouldn't hesitate to buy one of these if they went back to previous lows.
Didn't Gross more or less just announce his bet on lower rates just this past month?I suppose he may have taken the money and ran?
The pullbacks in UNG are so vigorous that they place UNG right away into a value zone, where I am not afraid to add to my position simply because I think the price is too low. I just placed a sell limit order at $6.17 for the 300 shares of UNG that I bought today at $5.83, so as to make $100 on this pullback and make sure that I counteract the decay in my HNUZD position due to volatility.
PKX - Looks like a good entry point here to me...
This suggests near-term demand is increasing:"Often derided for its price volatility, molybdenum has been one of the steadiest metals for 2010 staying in a range of roughly $30,000 to $40,000 per metric ton for most of the year ($13.61/lb to $18.14/lb). Spot prices in the West and Europe just nudged up a bit breaking a mild contango with the London Metal Exchange (LME) 3-month seller contract. The 15-month contract remains higher than the spot prices and 3-month seller."
X/MT - Both of these are looking strong.
US suing BP/RIG/APC. None of them budged on the news. Maybe investors think Eric Holder will personally handle the case.
Yee-ha, my milking machine finally stopped running!
X- Yeah, that's why I picked up TIE. That was a smart choice.
TOF -- why did you choose to press your put position in OPEN rather than CRM or NFLX?
If LVS can fill it's gap, I'll take a shot at it.
I do have to say that the daily chart for OPEN over the past 6 months does give me a feeling that more downside for it is in store, and so I just bought 2 January $70 puts on it at $4.70.
David - In watching OPEN, I think it is highly manipulated through short squeezes, yet the stock is still trending lower. I believe that lower prices will come as soon as enough shorts stop covering their positions and the price will be much lower. I actually prefer the business models of CRM and NFLX over OPEN, which I don't see it as being that proprietary or essential to everyday use.I saw a clip on Fast Money last night where some analyst stated that he sees OPEN going to $80/share. He compared it to two other high fliers and stated that their stocks are susceptible because of their multiples yet he said OPEN is going to go higher because it has more room to grow its business. The thing is he failed to mention two important things:(1) The company currently trades at 120 times free cash flow (i.e., a buyer of the business gets their money back in 120 years based on current cash flows, which is double the multiple on CRM and triple the multiple on NFLX, which are astronomical in their own right).(2) The company is already installed in 50% of the domestic restaurants He believes 50% of people that make reservations to restaurants will book online. I personally don't see that happening because I don't think it's an essential service to consumers.
TOF -- the negative aspects you mention about open are very important, but they are important for the long-term performance of OPEN and can be used to claim that over the next 3 years OPEN will underperform S&P. However, I believe your time horizon with your open trade is just a few days, isn't it so? That is, if OPEN rises to a new high over the next few days you will stop yourself out of your puts, and if OPEN drops 10% you'll probably cover all of them, isn't it so? So what gives you the feeling that over the next week or two OPEN will underperform CRM or NFLX?
AA just hit my sell stop order at $14 for my last 400 shares that I bought originally at $14.90 back in January 2010. As AA proceeded to collapse even further, I bought 500 more shares at $13 and then sold covered calls against those shares to reduce the cost basis to $11, until I finally sold those 500 shares at $14 in early November. So overall my excursion into AA was a profitable one (even though the percentage gain was not that large relative to the length of time I held at least some AA shares).
I have a feeling that TBT is rallying today because of the tax compromise reached today in the Senate. How are they going to bring down the nation's deficit with such a plan? Go TBT! GO GOLD! Since TBT is not in a bargain territory anymore, I'll be watching its further rise from the sidelines. The right index to look at, actually, is TLT (since TBT erodes over time), and TLT has now reached the bargain level of $90 on the 2-year chart. Now I understand why Bill Gross bought some government bonds recently!
UNG - You guys better watch out, the ice sickles have melted and fallen from my eves, the snow on the roof is quickly melting too. ;)
David - I think there is a change in investor sentiment going on toward high fliers. Look at the price action in CRM, CMG, NFLX, BIDU, FFIV, PCLN, etc lately. And the valuation on OPEN is significantly higher than all of these. A valuation of 120 times free cash flow is so absurd for an established business that already has a 50% market share of an established industry. It's honestly one of the most absurd valuations I have ever seen. On the flip side, I have $4,800 at risk with my trade. Not chump change but certainly not anything that will kill me. If I'm right and this has hit its peak and the skepticism currently related to other high fliers makes its way over to OPEN, then I should do well. Also, I can't short the stock because there are no shares available to short so I'm left working with puts, which are extremely expensive.
Mark - What's your thesis on TIE? The P/E seems kinda high, but that could change for multiple reasons, good and bad.
V down 4.4%? An overreaction to the debit fee's the fed is going to restrict?
Bought 7 x SPY $123 Calls that expire on Friday at 1.26 average to hedge my shorts/puts in the event that the unemployment claims are excellent and the market spikes.
Microsoft Unveils New Bing Features In Bid To Gain Search ShareLast update: 12/15/2010 4:15:30 PM By Jeanette Borzo Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)-Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) unveiled a variety of new mobile, local and social search features for its Bing search engine, part of an effort to attract more users to a product that still trails far behind industry leader Google Inc. (GOOG). The new features include a function that allows Bing to rank search results based on whether friends have said they like them on their Facebook page. The new function was developed after the Redmond, Wash.-based software giant struck a broad alliance with Facebook. Microsoft, which unveiled the new features at an event in San Francisco, also updated the Bing mobile application to allow users to make reservations using OpenTable Inc.'s (OPEN) service without leaving Bing. It also allows users to view panoramas of locations in its map function. The new features come as Microsoft endeavors to make the well-reviewed Bing search engine more popular with users. Despite an aggressive advertising campaign, Bing has failed to make significant inroads with Internet searchers, who routinely default to Google's dominant search engine. Launched in June 2009, Bing had 11.8% of the search market in November, up from 11.5% in October, according to a spokesman at comScore, a data tracker. But Google had nearly two thirds of the market while Microsoft partner Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) had 16.4%. ComScore Inc. (SCOR) is expected to release the November figures later on Wednesday. Satya Nadella, who runs engineering at the Microsoft's Online Services Division, said Bing has grown for 19-consecutive months and now has 90 million users. Bing is expected to benefit from Microsoft's search pact with Yahoo, under which Bing will power searches on Yahoo's Web pages, Nadella said. Microsoft's effort to compete in search comes as the company struggles to reinvigorate its stock price, which has languished as competitors, most notably Apple Inc. (AAPL), surge. Many investors think Mircosoft's relatively weak position in consumer products, smartphones and tablet computers is capping growth in its share price. On Wednesday, Microsoft shares closed up 0.8% at $27.85. Other new Bing features include "smart tabs" that let users quickly click between photos, as well as real-time public-transit information that is available on a mobile application. Microsoft also said Bing will eventually be integrated with a service called FanSnap that will let users buy event tickets in Bing. -By Jeanette Borzo, Dow Jones Newswires; 415 765 8230; firstname.lastname@example.org (END) Dow Jones NewswiresDecember 15, 2010 16:15 ET (21:15 GMT)
David - This is going to add more fuel to the short fire. Maybe shorts (us) are just wrong on this stock?
"Many investors think Mircosoft's relatively weak position in consumer products, smartphones and tablet computers is capping growth in its share price."Not to mention that every single MS product I've ever bought and paid for has disappointed in more ways than one.If MS products were expected to meet reliability requirements of GM, they'd have filed BK long ago.
One thing I've noticed about incredible P/E's is they tend to exist for good reason...
"David - This is going to add more fuel to the short fire. Maybe shorts (us) are just wrong on this stock?"There is a saying that catching tops and bottoms is a fool's game, and statistically it seems to be the case. So I expect to lose money on OPEN and CRM puts unless the whole market has a large correction very soon.
David - I have been able to catch enough bottoms and tops to make me not believe in this saying. I think it's just one of those sayings that people believe in but they might not necessarily ring true. My three best calls (buying REDF at $1.9, buying BYD at $6.7, shorting the SPY at $121 in May) in terms of profits this year came from calling tops/bottoms.
Hopefully being 75-80% short right now will work out well too as this would be calling a top too.
"Hopefully being 75-80% short right now will work out well too as this would be calling a top too."Good luck! If your short positions work out for you, then I will be able to make some good money on my present short positions, just like in May 2010. :)
Thanks David. Good luck to you too! I'm trying to finish out the year at my highs in my accounts. I'm not too far off of them. I took a hit on buying back REDF that I have almost fully recovered from. This two year run has pretty much been unheralded. I hope I can just stay above water next year.By the way, I just heard that Baidu expects growth to moderate next year. That could be ugly for the stock. Just another high flier that people were extrapolating growth out to infinity on.
Bill's Writeup under his Trend & Cycles Section was interesting...Cara on Trends & CyclesThis chart of the Euro:Pound has me concerned. Without going into details, it has made this week the toughest for me in the past two years. As the Euro has been sinking against the Dollar, the small cap (particularly China) and gold Bulls are not being given much of a chance to re-group. It's hard to say whether the spring is coiling up (for a rebound here) or has already sprung. Definitely not an enjoyable day for me.http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-dec-15-2010
Not sure why, but I just loaded every position I have into a trading screen for tomorrow.