Thursday, December 16, 2010

12/17/10 Where's The Playground, Susie?



The end has come and found us here
With our toys scattered all around us here
The puzzle that we never found an answer for
Still asks us, darlin', just what all the games were for
And here we stand in a box of sand

Where's the playground Susie?
You're the one who's supposed to know her way around
Where's the playground Susie
If I don't stay around?
If I don't stay around?

The carousel has stopped us here
It twirled a time or two and then it dropped us here
And still you're not content with something about me
But what merry-go-round can you ride without me
To take your hand ? How would you stand?

I'm starting to gear up for 'retirement.'  (Yeah, I know it's still at least eight years away.)  And the more I ponder the prospect, the less enamored I become about the idea of spending the years trading.  I have my sights on avocations more suited to my temperament.  Writing.  Music.  Reading.  Time with the family.  Let's face it- when the time comes, it won't be memories of market action that flash before my eyes.

67 comments:

  1. Well, when I think about it, last year this time we were getting our big snow storm. I measured 14-16" if I recall, three storms in all, one snow, another sleet, and a third at least a foot, all in a two week span.

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  2. Gee..What a shock. After all the lame, pathetic, grandstanding, the house passes the tax deal. Your not surprised are you?

    Oh, and the Dems caved on the current funding bill in the senate in the face of it actually having been read. Let's redo this whole thing in feb. after the holidays and supper bowl. Busy times indeed.

    I'm not making a comment here based on it's value/worth. It's just the same pathetic political bull shit people spew on TV to gain points.

    Personal, I'm worried abut the safe passage of VB's home made bourbon balls to my mouth.

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  3. Aren't you going to comment on how fast the Republicans became hypocrites and borrowed several hundred billion $$$$$$$$$$ to give to their wealthy campaign contributors Mark?
    There was an election November 4th and almost a year of total BS about how the Dems were destroying the country with big ass deficits and it took the Republicans less than two months to do a complete flip-flop.

    We will all be wearing our pants backwards for at least the next two years if the country stays solvent that long. You should worry about your balls alright, but not bourbon balls.
    And people wonder why I'm looking to move to Belize.....

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  4. Craig- Then move. They all are the problem. Not me, not you. Good luck my friend, and I mean that. I have had friends make that choice and are trying to figure out a way back. Living in a 3rd world county is not as easy as it might seen.



    Not that it matters, but I receive any changes in analysts recommendations for stocks I follow through Schwab. Changes for V tonight where to the up side.

    Outpreform- 18
    Buy-9
    Hold-2
    Sell-1

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  5. Not sure I have the temperment for trading either but I don't/won't have the financial resources to retire with a passive investment strategy, I will need to go down swinging.

    first step will be to move out of California, Belize is beautiful and cheap but I agree with Mark it ain't easy as it seems to go ex-pat. we are now looking at El Paso...yikes!

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  6. I wonder if getting into V/MA now could be a once in a lifetime oppty? I will see how it opens and pick up some for the IRA and the grandkids college funds.

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  7. Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Friday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5059 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 08:36 #76182 (in reply to #76174)
    "Colder than a ticket taker's smile at the Ivar Theatre, on a Saturday night"
    - Tom Waits

    "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy."
    - Tom Waits

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  8. MI - "M&I Deal Sparks M&A Rally in Financials at Barrons.com +18.91%"

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  9. got gold?
    http://yhoo.it/hdMWvm

    2nd, I drove down broadway last night and passed the prime rib house. It looks like a great place!

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  10. Long a few SPY Jan $126 puts at $3.3. Long more BGZ at $9.16.

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  11. I have friends that bought in Placencia, Belize for $30,000 four years ago. Their place is now worth $200,000 (USD) and the taxes are $75 a year.
    There are major hotels and resorts building all around. The trouble with not travelling is you get a certain mindset that isn't necessarily accurate. WE are going third world, THEY are RISING and building.

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  12. "WE are going third world"

    Sometimes it sure seems that way. I think we're actually witnessing a temporary phenomenon but I do agree the world no longer rotates on an US axis, which really is a good thing for us in the longer perspective.

    Belize could be a consideration for me, I'd think about Peru as well. Never been to either one, South America is the only continent I haven't visited.

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  13. $30k to $200k is a big jump, I guess real estate has been a good investment nearly everywhere, at least until just recently.

    This trouble will pass, buy when prices are low.

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  14. TED Spread
    Submitted by teamonfuego (2325 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 11:55 #76214

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND

    It's been spiking the last few days. While stocks look great here I suspect something is lurking beneath the surface and its probably the debt.

    I've had to repeat to myself several times this morning:
    "I'm not giving in to the bullishness, I'm not giving in to the bullishness, I'm not giving in to the bullishness"

    I still believe we sell off because of debt issues related to QE2 + Tax Deal. With debt issues in Europe being so pervasive I doubt the bond markets will be kind to the US as things set in. I think the equity markets have been ignoring this...

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  15. Mark Hulbert on excessive sentiments
    Submitted by jack black (1031 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 11:11 #76201
    Nothing new to me as I follow all sentiment measures available, but mentioning this as Mark is held in high esteem here:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sentiment-has-tak...
    Re: Mark Hulbert on excessive sentiments
    Submitted by 2nd_ave (5060 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 11:47 #76210 (in reply to #76201)
    jack- Thanks for posting the link.

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  16. got gold?

    "Instead of buying flowers or chocolates, which is gone after two or three minutes, this will stay for the next few hundreds years,"

    Wow, I wouldn't have thought a vending machine could be that durable, wonder if there's a ticker for that? ;)

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  17. Taking the VXX for a spin @ 38.69 rpm newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5061 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:13 #76217
    hoping i can rev it up down the home stretch...

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  18. "I've had to repeat to myself several times this morning:
    "I'm not giving in to the bullishness, I'm not giving in to the bullishness, I'm not giving in to the bullishness"

    I'm not feeling bullish at all, that's why I'm not commiting more cash here, 70% long still and prices are too low to sell and not low enough to buy.

    Well, there are some low enough to buy, but if market sells off those aren't likely to tread water.

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  19. FDX retracing a good deal of yesterday's gains.

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  20. Okay, Moodys downgraded Ireland. That ought to make financing their debt prohibitively expensive, time for US gov/ China to print some cash and swoop in for bargain basement prices?

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  21. Re: Taking the VXX for a spin @ 38.69 rpm/ Add 38.39 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5062 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:02 #76220 (in reply to #76217)

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  22. A little short squeeze in TIE? I can't find any news.

    Had to leave really early today. Big pour.

    FF- Your right. I was passing along what a few friends have said. I have no first hand experience.

    JB- Do you have any idea how big the bugs are in Texas. Your too much of a wuss to live there.

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  23. 2nd_ave: VXX is down 2% now while ^VIX is down 8% now. This is good for those who held VXX yesterday, but is buying VXX the best way right now to take care of the current condition?

    With ^VIX under 16 now, it has reached an extremely low level, which was seen for the past 2 years only for a few days in late April, just before the May correction. I just bought 2 March SPY $125 puts, which are extremely cheap now.

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  24. And also just bought 5 January $122 puts for $1.37.

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  25. Madera - I didn't know a wuss could survive there...

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  26. Re: Taking the VXX for a spin @ 38.69 rpm/ Add 38.39 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5063 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:49 #76222 (in reply to #76221)
    Yeah, I'm stuck behind a tractor-trailer. There's a picture of Vad posted on the back reminding me to pass on the 'Right Side.' ;)

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  27. Added some more SPY $126 Jan Puts at $2.93. Avg now down to $3.1.

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  28. exactly CP, we're so far out in the sticks here we are almost IN Texas...;)

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  29. TOF: we all have a tendency to play the market of our own country, but why don't you "break out of the box" and diversify your puts by buying some on EWP or DB? They have been in a clear downtrend in 2010 unlike SPY, which was in a clear uptrend. I bought some puts on them over the past 2 weeks and already made money, since both EWP and DB are below their recent peaks while SPY still did not budge.

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  30. David - I hear you on that. I've been watching DB/STD/UBS and I'm not really sure why I don't buy puts on them. I think the reason is I prefer to buy stocks at lows than short them and vice versa. And I personally think there is way too much bullishness in the US. RSI's + low VIX + excessive bullishness as measured by Hulberts measurements + poor valuations based on Hussman's valuation model + additional debt piling up in US + rising rates + ongoing problems in Europe tell me our markets are not buys here and in fact are sells, despite what sell side analysts say.

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  31. Wow. What a wipe out in TBT.

    Man, I really don't like being on the other side of the trade with most of you guys.

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  32. "Wow. What a wipe out in TBT."

    Man! Am I glad I have already finished my 4th round trip on it! If bonds start moving up now, then instead of the stock market feeling happy, we might actually observe the opposite behavior -- investors will start switching into bonds so as to be the first ones in the bond's uptrend. Wouldn't you do the same? If bonds have already bottomed out, then the risk of boarding that train (which also pays some yield!) is much less than the risk of being in stocks, which seem to be topping now.

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  33. Madera - Oh, sorry, I was thinking of Ranchos-Madera out on 145... You're right, Madera is wussy central.

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  34. TOF: all the negative things you mention about the US stock market are important, but as we all know, the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Hence, you have to respect the technical picture of what is *already* happening at least as much as your thoughts about what *should* happen. EWP and DB are *already* in a long-term downtrend, and hence any rebound (like the one we had last week) should be shorted (say via puts).

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  35. Besides, EWP and DB have a very strong correlation with SPY (you can see it yourself by overlaying their charts), and if the US market collapses now, EWP and DB might take an even bigger hit since they have much less fundamental support than US.

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  36. So David, are you saying equities must move down regardless of which way bonds move?

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  37. However, if bonds stay in place, then equities can keep making marginal highs according to Hussman's statistical observations of overvalued, overbought, overbullish markets with increasing yield pressures (probability of a small weekly gain being slightly greater than 0.5 while the probability of a large weekly loss being slightly less than 0.5, with the expected return being clearly negative).

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  38. David - EWP looks to me like it's in an upward trending channel on a one year chart, which begins at the June low...???

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  39. VXX is clinging to S2 for dear life.

    I'm kinda of the thinking a more "stable" bond market would be net bullish for stocks.

    CP- Yep, wuss central USA ;)

    Their saying the recent investment in Facebook as an implied value of the business @ $56B.

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  40. David, I'm not totally in agreement the market is overvalued, my belief is there are pockets of overvaluation, and vice-versa.

    Take CSCO for example, I tend to believe this one's not over valued...

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  41. I just placed a buy stop limit order for 1000 shares of TWM at $13.40/$13.50, just above its high for the past 2 weeks.

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  42. "David - EWP looks to me like it's in an upward trending channel on a one year chart, which begins at the June low...???"

    But then, it made a lower high in April relative to January and then in October relative to April...

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  43. Hmmm...Porno for the X-Box. I might actually have to breakdown and get me one of them thingies.

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  44. Hussman is measuring valuation of the complete S&P index. Naturally, there are always individual exceptions.

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  45. Vixie just lost S2 on volume. Careful my friend. I know you don't want her for the weekend.

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  46. VXX back to it's life line, by a hair.

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  47. "Action still needed to avoid government shutdown"

    I say shut 'em down now! The sooner, the better.

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  48. ORCL now almost $1 off its morning highs.

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  49. GMO - I haven't made a deposit to this account recently, seems to be running lower today...

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  50. MON just had two very good back to back days. I just covered at $1.02 the January $60 put on MON I sold a few weeks ago at $3.30. If the whole market collapses soon, then MON will follow, and I'll be able to sell a February $60 put on MON at a high price once again without committing more capital to backing my MON puts (I still have a January $57.50 put on MON that I sold at $3.50, but I'll just let that put expire as I don't believe MON will drop that low).

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  51. Re: Taking the VXX for a spin @ 38.69 rpm/ Add 38.39/ OFF 38.45 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5064 comments) on Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:55 #76232 (in reply to #76223)
    done

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  52. Also, I had 100 shares of MON that I purchased a while ago at $70, and just now I sold a January $65 call against these shares at $2.15. I doubt MON will stay this high if the overall market corrects.

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  53. Wonder what's bound to happen to equities prices as Moody's systematically downgrades government debt across the world, those countries who don't need to borrow pay no return while those that do can't afford to borrow.

    It must suck not to be able to print your way out of the chains of debt, while those that can print are your only potential lenders... They lend to you freshly printed script at high rates, LOL!

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  54. And those poor trapped fools completely under water are selling that debt at low prices for freshly printed script, probably capitulated near the bottom?

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  55. Now for a cup of that Jingle Bell Java...

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  56. scco/tgb both held up well, along with crude. Not a bad day...

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  57. something wacky is going on with the SPY after hours. it's all over the place.

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  58. It is probably people adjusting their positions for OpEx

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  59. Wow, materials were smokin' hot today.

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  60. No extra lashes for breaking my 3 day rule with V so far.

    Healthy +1.17% for the port today.

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  61. Mark, that's pretty good for the port, mine's been suffering while the market surges.

    Not sure what's up with that, maybe it got ahead of itself or just taking a breather...

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  62. Now for a snake joke:

    One day while working in her garden, an elderly woman saw a despondent black snake lurking on a rock.

    Realizing the snake seemed to be acting oddly, she asked him what was the matter?

    The snake replied, oh, I didn't see you there, I can't see very well you know.

    So the woman told the snake to wait right there, she knew exactly what he needed and that she'd be right back in a few minutes.

    Soon the woman returned carrying a tiny pair of eye glasses, and placed them on the snakes nose.

    After a few moments, the snake began to slither happily all around beneath the rose bushes then came back to thank the woman for making his life so much better with her gift of eyesight.

    Well this made the woman's day, she returned from her garden with a smile of satisfaction knowing she had helped the black snake living in her garden.

    So the next day, when she returned to the garden to find her snake again lying on the rock and acting despondent, she asked him what his problem was, weren't the new glasses working anymore?

    The snake replied well yes, the glasses were terrific, he was just down in the dumps because he discovered the female snake he slept with at night wasn't a snake after all, it was a old garden hose!

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  63. Mark, how did you manage 1.17% today for the whole port? What were some biggest gainers today and what fraction of your port was invested into each of them? What fraction of your port is in cash now?

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