Saturday, December 18, 2010
12/18/10 I Can't Stand It
re TZA/UNG/VXX- The song that best describes investor sentiment:
You've been told
Maybe it's time that you learned
You've been sold
Maybe it's time that you earned
I can't stand it
You're fooling around, I can't stand it
You're running around, I can't stand it
You're fooling around with my heart
I'll explain
I feel like I'm being used
Make it plain
So you don't get confused
I can't stand it
You're fooling around, I can't stand it
You're running around, I can't stand it
You're fooling around with my heart
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Apparently south korea is going fwd with military tests despite north korea's warnings that it would retaliate...when are we all gonna finally agree to just wipe king jong il and family off the face of the earth. Think about how great it would be for those poor people in n korea
ReplyDeleteIt's a tough call right now. On the one hand- those tax cuts should spur spending and boost the GDP. So I'm definitely bullish with regard to 2011.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, Hulbert + Hussman + Kass + anyone else we listen to is flashing the yellow.
So I guess I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now.
tof- You're right about most money being made on the long side. And my retirement plan only calls for a 10% gain each year. So it makes sense to remain patient and wait for entries. Entries ALWAYS (eventually) present themselves.
David- Sorry, I didn't see your question. I'm about 10% cash right now. Positions from largest to smallest. The top 4 are all about the same size.
ReplyDeleteV -.23%
BAC +.40%
MMR +2.96%
C +2.47%
UNG +.80%
TIE +6.23%
CADC -1.47%
WATG +.38%
It's been a great week for me. Especially the scalps on V Thur. MMR has been really interesting the last few days. It was all the way down to 14.81 in the first 30 minutes of trading Thur. morning. I think it might have gotten caught up in the BP/APC/RIG news. Might be following HERO now. I really like the leases they "stole" from PXP.
Tax cuts v Sentiment Red Flag newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5067 comments) on Sat, 12/18/2010 - 10:24 #76256
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2dzqr89
Based on my reading of the above, there's way more 'fuel' than I expected in the spending pipeline. It's difficult NOT to be bullish re 2011.
On the other hand, Hulbert + Hussman + Kass are flashing caution.
The prudent stance here? I would say wait for better entries on the long side- then press the bull bet.
Anyone else with an opinion?
I'm seriously thinking about putting the pipe away for good also. I'd rather play the natty drillers. At least there is the possibility of a buyout like ECO.
ReplyDelete2nd- Just guessing of course, but I suspect housing is damn near it's floor. It might over shoot to the downside by another 10% in early 2011, but I suspect this summer will be the turning point.
ReplyDeleteThus my big plays on BAC/C.
Off to an indoor soccer game this am. Catch you cats latter.
ReplyDeleteOther opinions?
ReplyDeleteBig Blue arrow still pointing up. We have lost some momentum but that in itself doesn't mean anything.
I'm done trying to guess what the market does. No one, and I mean no one knows , including all the supposed gurus named above knows. It could go up, it could go sideways, it could go down. They don't know.
IF the big blue arrow starts to point down, then there will be plenty of chances to short the slide and glide, but for now I'm sitting on my hands and positions (with break even stops after taking partial profits of course) while I wait for the trend to either resume stronger or to reverse if that's what people's emotions bring about.
Right now we're kinda moving sideways, or up VERY slightly. Seems like a little gravity or tractor beam action off that little double top from November.
My NEW method can be seen on a one month daily chart of XL and WFT. Just draw an arrow, wait for a knockout, and for the trend to reassert itself. No guessing, no fuss, no muss, no trying to devine the un-devineable.
I highly recommend the new Dave Landry book, "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks".
Just follow the recipe, it works.
FF
OK, thanks Craig.
ReplyDeleteMMR, C, TIE -- they had some pretty big gains, Mark, on a flat day like Friday. Congrats!
ReplyDeleteI just checked and saw that as of December 14, there was a record high net long position in copper futures among Managed Money and Nonreportables, whose net long position has historically peaked together with the copper price. So I'll be watching for FCX to break below its recent low at $111 in order to buy some puts on FCX.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I have just placed a sell short stop limit order for 100 shares of FCX at $109.90/$109.80, just below yesterday's intraday low.
ReplyDeleteNow for a snake joke:
ReplyDeleteOne day while working in her garden, an elderly woman saw a despondent black snake lurking on a rock.
Realizing the snake seemed to be acting oddly, she asked him what was the matter?
The snake replied, oh, I didn't see you there, I can't see very well you know.
So the woman told the snake to wait right there, she knew exactly what he needed and that she'd be right back in a few minutes.
Soon the woman returned carrying a tiny pair of eye glasses, and placed them on the snakes nose.
After a few moments, the snake began to slither happily all around beneath the rose bushes then came back to thank the woman for making his life so much better with her gift of eyesight.
Well this made the woman's day, she returned from her garden with a smile of satisfaction knowing she had helped the black snake living in her garden.
So the next day, when she returned to the garden to find her snake again lying on the rock and acting despondent, she asked him what his problem was, weren't the new glasses working anymore?
The snake replied well yes, the glasses were terrific, he's just down in the dumps because he discovered the female snake he slept with at night wasn't a snake after all, it was an old garden hose!