Thursday, December 30, 2010
12/31/10 The Droid Incredible
The Droid arrived in the mail today. It will clearly take several weeks to get up to speed.
Mark- I've downloaded the Fidelity mobile trading platform, and it works well enough for my purposes. If you've discovered other apps that help to streamline either access to financial information or the trading process, let me know.
Definitely a game-changer for me. For the first time in my life, I may actually look forward to time spent in waiting rooms.
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CPSL - Of course I seriously wonder about these kinds of moves, but I still think it was a good bargain at yesterday's price.
ReplyDeleteMark- Reminder to cash in your 25k chips at the Bellagio by April.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/29/travel/main7196116.shtml
cp- I have to say I've learned something watching you trade GMO. The big money, as Craig reminds us via Livermore, lies in leaving positions alone.
ReplyDelete"For the first time in my life, I may actually look forward to time spent in waiting rooms."
ReplyDeleteYou'll get no sympathy from me on that, talk about open season...!!!
I'd prefer rassling alligators in the okefenokee.
2nd - GMO - Truth is, I'm faking it, making it up as I go along! Well, maybe not really...
ReplyDeletecp- The truth is, you're making serious money on GMO! Whether or not you're 'faking it,' you've had to make real decisions nonetheless.
ReplyDeletePKX - I know this one's not Chinese, but that doesn't mean it can't succumb to the same form of moving violations we've been witnessing in Chinese metals/mining stocks the past few days...
ReplyDelete2nd - It's all house money. The sharper the sword tip, the more diligent the fencer?
ReplyDelete2nd- I'll let you know if I find any good apps. Bloomberg so far is good with news, stock quotes.
ReplyDeleteI have 2 trading confessions to make, but am not ready to admit to them yet. You'll know their real because so far I've come out on the losing end of one of them.
Both of these trades have been included into the returns I've posted. Maybe over a glass of wine tomorrow. It's funny. I deal in "gray areas" constantly with my work, but I can't let that happen here, or it's really not worth it. I'll fess up. I have to.
2nd- If you see the waitress, could you flag her down? I'm guessing we'll be in this stinking subway cafe for a while.
Mark - I think we all learned some 'Trading Lessons' this year. At least that's how it's suppose to work. There was a post 2nd made back in March that I think about from time to time.
ReplyDelete'We're working it out here' is the key concept...
2nd-
By the way, my friend- Right now we're just a group of rogue bloggers sharing stories and learning how to trade. In 5 years, we could easily be rich as hell. They could just as easily be writing a book about you.
Personally, I believe the constant stopping out of my countertrend trades- now at 10 months and running- has its 'purpose.' True, I'm not getting anywhere in terms of portfolio value. But the real story is- it hasn't been going down. What better training for taking losses than repetitive mental stops to the point where it becomes 2nd nature?
All pursuits start out as 'love of the game.' I don't care that you didn't attend Harvard Business School for the same reason I don't care that Neil Young didn't attend Julliard (or any other music school for that matter). We're working something out here. It probably doesn't even have a name. But there's energy and synergy behind this blog. And I think it translates into financial gains at some point.
Let's wait and see.
March 24, 2010 11:24 AM
Mark - "I have 2 trading confessions to make"
ReplyDeleteIt never turns out well when you wager with the neighborhood kids, stick to what you know!
Exited my inverse etfs on this pullback and leaving 2010 in cash. Sentimentrader had an interesting piece this morning regarding the past 6 trading days being tightest since '96. Opined that first move out of it would be a false move. So...perhaps we move down then up, then given abundance of sentiment/indicator extremes, we get a big swoosh down. Perhaps mid Jan? Here's to a prosperous '11 everyone.
ReplyDeleteCheers
One and one and one is three, got to be a looker 'cause he's too hard to see...
ReplyDeleteHIT - still on a roll...
ReplyDeleteKyle- I remember that post. Funny you should bring it up. I started reading Andrew Sorkin's 'Too Big To Fail' on Wednesday, and the first thing that struck me (apart from the relatively large number of typos that got by the editor) were the relatively humble beginnings of players like Paulson and Geithner. I'm less inclined to fault them, now that the author lays bare their many personal shortcomings. As they say, it's easier to be critical of people you don't know.
ReplyDeleteI don't think my post went through but anyway I went long SPF at $4.6. I have been looking at home builders for a while now and while there are clearly some issues in the industry, I believe now is a very good time to start a longer term position in a few of them. I believe SPF is the best managed smaller company out there in this industry. They are currently profitable and are trading a fraction of their old highs. I don't think they will reach those old highs until I'm an old man but in the meantime I do think that when housing bottoms out in 2012, they will be a big beneficiary. I started a small position and consider it a long term holding just like RAS.
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck...picked up UNG. Don't want to be left behind when she catches everyone by surprise.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of books, does anyone have a preferred portable e-book reader, is the Kindle still the better one?
ReplyDeleteIn this market, I think the easiest thing to do is to sell...the hardest thing to do in any bull market is to hold on to your positions. I believe there will be a shakeout in January/February that will push to the sidelines many people that consider themselves to be bullish. While sentiment is high, I believe it is very fickle. I'm one of those fickle ones and will have a tough time staying long in the market. I believe we're going to experience a very similar market to the one all the way back in 1907/8. They had a panic crash and ensuing rebound that brought everything back to prior highs. Yesterday's econ data was extremely bullish and shouldn't be ignored in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI think the stocks best positioned to benefit next year are those tethered most to the US recovery: i.e., small/mid caps centered in the US like RAS, BYD, PIR, WNC, SCSS, SPF etc.
Mark- You know how to put out a cliffhanger, my friend. I don't retire any later than usual on NY's Eve, so time your revelation accordingly. If you achieved your YTD results by jacking the tables at Bellagio, it's OK with me.
ReplyDeletetof- Then here's to 1907/8.
ReplyDeleteJesse - Why not buy LNG, which has a beautiful chart and looks to be a great time to buy in? UNG seems to me to be a broken ETF.
ReplyDelete2nd - that's exactly what I was thinking when I posted it...what a wack-job I am. But those old market cycles are useful only so much as they tell you how people behave/react to things.
ReplyDeleteBYD getting ready to blast higher.
ReplyDeleteFD: Long stock and in the money calls so I'm seeing it with rose colored glasses.
Bought small amount of RAS for my company's investment account at $2.17
ReplyDeleteI was going to say it's appropriate for Livermore to be closing the year in cash, but it's just as appropriate to tuck a little UNG into the breast pocket- a low-grade buzz to counter what will be (at least IMO) a downer holiday weekend- early close, holiday news schedule, and waiting for the rest of the world to finish partying so we can get back to gaming.
ReplyDeleteSTVI snapback too interesting to pass up. 50%+ pullback in 2 days. Social network online dating applications. Know nothing about company, but like the chart pattern. Picking up at 1.55.
ReplyDeleteSTVI- Yeah the company name says it all. Six trading days ago the stock was basing @ 0.20/sh.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I followed you with STVI...long 4k shares at $1.63.
ReplyDeleteAlso sold my BYD Calls at $1.80 that I bought yesterday at $1.67 avg.
TOF said "I believe we're going to experience a very similar market to the one all the way back in 1907/8. They had a panic crash and ensuing rebound that brought everything back to prior highs."
ReplyDeleteThe flash crash 2010 was this years equivalent that scared the hell out of retail players and shook experienced players, but that's what the market does. The hardest thing to do is to stay with the trend in a trending mkt.
Nice option trades on BYD.
My housing stock is GFA, sold it yesterday but is one to watch.
Good luck to all of us in 2011 in trading, family and health in what order you prefer. Happy New Year to all.
wow Jesse this is a very interesting company, this STVI.
ReplyDeleteI added another 6k of STVI at $1.64. Total 10k shares...let's see a run to $3.
ReplyDeleteCSCO @ 20.17. 20% of allocation.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Three days ago I recall thinking if the stock price dropped back under 20.20 I would take a stab at it. Three days ago, of course, I also recall putting myself in the shoes of buyers and thinking it would hit 21. So 20.17 it is for an opener.
Some possible setups on the weekly chart heading into next week...
ReplyDeleteSOL- nice weekly basing pattern w/ no violation of last week's high this week.
ASST- Not sure if it is quite ready yet, but next move could take it to 5+
LSCG- most powerful stock chart pattern in my experience- "the staircase". Don't know anything about co., but they make the new "forever lightbulbs" that cost a fortune.
RAS- Interesting flaggy weekly pattern.
Natural gas- When it busts its 18 month bull flag downward sloping upward channel ($6,$5.20,$4.60)I think it quickly makes its move to $6, consolidates, then heads to $9-$13 range...in direct contrast to universal opinion, weekly injections, production #'s. 3rd chart down (The 18 month bull flag isn't drawn out...must be visualized).
Jesse - http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2010/12/28/businessinsider-areyouinterested-facebook-dating-app-maker-snap-interactive-stvi-2010-12.DTL#ixzz19Q3K6hTr
ReplyDeleteLonger term charts (i.e., weekly charts) on RAS and SPF are a thing of beauty.
Correction: Stock #2 "ASST" should be "ASTI"
ReplyDeleteMissing link for natural gas charts. Charts #1 and 2 are also very powerful long term downward sloping pennants w/ well-defined channels. Looking for a big breakout at some point. (Even if UNG is just a "derivative play"
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s202393439]&disp=O
TOF- Thanks a bunch! I was going to scalp STVI for 10-20% but this might just be a hold. 50,000 new users a day? The only Facebook pureplay? Profitable? Hmmm.....
ReplyDelete"The app is now the largest dating app on Facebook, with more than 13 million users, and it's adding 50,000 new users a day. The company turned a profit in Q3, on $1.7 million of revenue, and it has more than $2 million of cash in the bank. Snap Interactive's stock also has another thing going for it: It represents the only pure-play publicly traded Facebook app that we know of. That alone will likely give the stock some scarcity value and cachet."
Jesse - I love the play. If I wasn't such a wuss because of the experience of getting crushed on these penny stocks in the past, I would load the boat on this one. I see no reason why this shouldn't be valued at 10-15 times revenues, which are probably around a $8-$10 Million run rate right now.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteOn RBY, I was buying mid/high 5.50's yesterday reloading what I sold at high 5.80s a few days ago. Other than that, I really have little more clue than anyone else, I guess.
Where's Mark today anyway, out shaking down the neighborhood kids again?
ReplyDeleteLooks like regular trading hours today.
ReplyDeleteJust sold all my remaining HNUZD (750 shares) at $6.68. I've probably taken a loss of about 2% of my port on HNUZD between the purchases made in Fall 2010 and now. On the other hand, I made probably a profit of 1% of my port between the purchases I made in the Spring of 2010 and those that I sold into the summer rally.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I still have 500 shares of HNU.TO and 2200 shares of UNG, and I probably have a current unrealized loss on them of about 1% of my port.
And even though I don't like taking losses and prefer hoping for better prices in the future, in this case, I think, I should get over myself and take a loss before it becomes a much bigger one (if the current NG rally fades).
Another one of those days....I wish was everyday!
ReplyDeleteAPCW
CYD
FTK
Took some profits for a rainy day but still holding reasonable positions. Moving stops.
FF
OK, sold my 1000 shares of CADC at $4.70 that I purchased at $3.90. Will reload CADC when the whole market crashes in the near future.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 1 FCX February $129 put at $12.35. If FCX rises to $129 in the next couple of weeks, I'll roll over this put to a $10 higher strike price.
ReplyDeleteFF - Awesome call on FTK. We should have all listened to you at $4.20ish.
ReplyDeleteJust sold my 1000 shares of HNU.TO at CAD$6.71. Now I just have 2200 shares of UNG left, and I'll let these shares run and will be moving up the stop on these share. Currently, I just moved my stop $5.90/$5.88.
ReplyDeleteSTVI- Just finished reading the sfgate + Bloomberg takes. I would agree, it's worth a shot. The 'dating game' is as old as mankind- the demand never wanes, and with the advent of social networking it's natural to gravitate to new platforms.
ReplyDeleteNo position.
Max frustration for Monday? Gap up.
ReplyDeleteHey guys. Had to leave early for a concrete pout today.
ReplyDelete2nd- Max pain? Could be. The first 2 trading days of the year have historical win rates of 65%/80% respectively. With the parties happening to night, traders should be "ready" for Mon. I'm going to open a position in SSO sometime today for this play.
Good news! My Pajama Jeans arrived today. Just in time for a big night out :)
Ha! Pour/pout..about the same :))
ReplyDeleteRAS- I would also agree this company is poised for growth- if the economy in fact takes off. They've cleared the residential MBS trash off their books, and I like companies able to make decisive moves under painful circumstances.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I'm at an age where it's caution>speculation. 1000 shares @ 2.19 with an eventual goal of 10,000 shares should it begin to take off.
STVI...Really? Man, I thought I played it a little loose :)
ReplyDeleteAdding INTC @ 21.01.
ReplyDeleteMark- I decided to get up and board after watching a stream of investors disembark to take seats at our diner. That's my take right now.
ReplyDelete2nd- I was going to talk about this last night. INTC...I don't know man. I'm really impressed with my new phone. I can search the web just as fast as my computer. INTC isn't in this space. While I was waiting at VZ, a customer there was saying he only uses the phone now and not his regular computer. Of course, that might just be a small percentage, but for emails/browsing/social etc I can really see that happening.
ReplyDeleteWith INTC's balance sheet, market share, it should be trading much higher. Perhaps investors are starting to look at it as dead money.
FWIW, I do NOT put CSCO into that category.
Just a thought.
RAS- Got to like the way this one is trading. Sure looks like accumulation to see.
ReplyDeleteMark - I completely agree with your take on INTC which is why I have not put any money in them. There is a long term shift going on in how people use the internet and I'm afraid INTC could be a casualty.
ReplyDeleteAnd I also agree that CSCO is a different breed and should do well longer term at these entry prices.
FTK, another 250 of the shares I reloaded last night at 4.74, off at 5.72. This is starting to get parabolically scary.
ReplyDeleteI take no credit for this pick except the reload last night as it pulled back into the 4.70-4.80 area.
This and the others mentioned are on the Landry list. I'm telling you guys, it's *easily* worth the piddly amount I paid for 8 mos.
That was paid for in the first trade and then several hundred percent of it in profits.
In one acct alone a full position at 2% risk was 5000 shares @3.95. 1/2 off at 5.18 (5.20 target).
By the book still holding 2500 w/ another 500 from last night. You can do the math. Astounding except possibly for CB.
DaveLandry.com Tell him I sent you.
I have no financial interest.
FF
I wonder what happened to MELI today?
ReplyDeleteFF- How much is it a month? Even if I don't follow the methodology to the letter, he has come up with some really interesting plays.
ReplyDelete2011 Forecast/ Max Frustration newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5113 comments) on Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:06 #76910
ReplyDelete(a) Gap up Monday.
(b) J6P, who has been eyeing index creep while waiting patiently for a pullback, throws New Year's resolutions to the wind and buys the total market fund.
(c) New investors are well rewarded for a few weeks.
(d) The sound of shorts screaming heralds the first protracted move down. Probably just prior to the Steelers winning Super Bowl XLV.
(e) Dip buyers swarm in, as bull traps snap one after another.
(f) The indexes show some life the last 2 weeks of April. This encourages the 'Sell in May' crowd to attempt back-to-back victories. Naturally, bad move.
(g) A sprint to SPX 1350 in record time, probably around June.
(h) Shorts (with short memories) manage to keep things afloat until Labor Day.
(i) A tight summer trading range then breaks...to the upside.
(j) SPX 1400, currently unimaginable to most of us, hits the headlines in the Fall, along with 10-year bond yields near 5%.
(k) All's well that then ends badly >>> SPX closes the year at 1350, in time for pundits to call it 'another great year!' We did, after all, close up +7.
Added 2,000 shs to STVI at $1.71
ReplyDelete2nd - All of those possibilities seem plausible except for the Super Bowl. Jets are winning it.
ReplyDeleteMark/tof- Yeah, I've thought about the same scenario with INTC. I think there's life left in this company.
ReplyDelete(a) McAfee will provide an additional source of profits as demand for security begins to accelerate. INTC's cash permits quantum leaps in R&D otherwise unattainable.
(b) Corporate PCs will undergo another round of upgrades.
(c) INTC moves into manufacturing chips for mobile platforms. Perhaps by designing one that eclipses current processors. Or buying new players.
CSCO/EMC - someone on cnbc mentioned today that if CSCO could take over one of these cloud companies (EMC was mentioned) then that could get it rolling again..
ReplyDeleteCREE - there was an Inv C&H that failed @ 65.30. CREE moving higher since 2pm.
ReplyDeleteCSCO/INTC/MSFT - When was the last time a premier corporation such as one of these couldn't muscle their way into a technology if the need arose?
ReplyDeleteThese companies didn't reach the top by producing products nobody was interested in, but I am a bit surprised they aren't way ahead of the crowd b/c first to market is always the winning strategy.
VXX - spiking into close
ReplyDeleteCP- Those three horsemen could easily be the big comeback story of 2011. Faded gunslingers of the past, written off as outdated, overweight and slow.
ReplyDeleteImbalances....
ReplyDeleteBUY- None
SELL- BAC/AA/X/WFC
RAS in the trading account @ 2.16.
ReplyDeleteI see that, Kyle. The market doing its thing, yo. Ain't no thang. They be sellin into the close, yo. Watch the open Monday- y'all should be buyin.
ReplyDeleteLet me add one more comment to clarify things for Mark. Let them drop it into the close- we don't scare. Do we open up on Monday? Mos' def, bro. Mos' def.
ReplyDeleteSSO @ 47.81.
ReplyDeleteA'ight- time for Mark to 'fess up.
ReplyDeleteI'll be back for a toast with my friends!!
ReplyDeletePicked up SMN at the close. Looks like a nice reversal pattern similar to TZA's yesterday. Failed in my effort to end year in cash. Charts tell me the market continues down, but gut tells me they gap it higher on Monday.
ReplyDeleteOne more prediction: tof jr. arrives in the fall of '11.
ReplyDeleteDavid spends every weekend beginning in July looking at homes.
ReplyDeleteFF starts farfetched.com
ReplyDelete2nd - are you saying that we consummate our vows and score a goal on our wedding date, which is next Saturday? That would have to be the timing.
ReplyDeleteCP, having quadrupled his port in 2 years, donates money to the Wildlife Federation.
ReplyDeleteUh-Oh, it's more disappearing posts....
ReplyDeleteMark:
I paid for 6 mos of Landry service for $810.
Got the complimentary month for $49 and another thrown in because I signed up for 6 mos.
So 8 mos for $859. Made it back several times over with one trade and have been making about that much everyday so far.
The service is daily with video and written summary, etc. in the evening. combined with the MIM and free chart show it's a great package.
As I wrote in the disappeared post, I advise following his methodology and risk profile. He encourages discretion in certain circumstances.
The service, free shows and web page cover these as does his latest book.
See here: http://www.davelandry.com/shop/index.htm
Happy New Year Everyone!
FF
tof- Last I checked, 'winter' doesn't arrive until Dec 21 ;)
ReplyDeleteWhen asked to wait for a portrait photographer, he's quoted as 'going after alligators in the okefonokee.'
ReplyDeleteLivermore buys a pair of sunglasses on his way to Bollywood to advise on the filming of 'Reeducation Of A Speculator.'
ReplyDeletecb discovers the power of positive thinking and surprises his wife with a week in Paris on the spur of the moment.
ReplyDeletevb wakes to the sound of $2500 gold and settles in Tahoe.
ReplyDeleteMark, Kyle, and I- unable to breach our shortcomings, settle for 99% gains- and a case of Charles Shaw's best.
ReplyDeleteI'm opening a bottle right now! Cheers and best wishes to all!
2nd - Way to go man, trying to scare the boy just when he's most vulnerable!
ReplyDeleteIs there a better time? History teaches us it's best to kick a man when he's down, kiss up when he's king, and ask a girl out when she's insecure ;)
ReplyDeleteI wish everyone here 'shortcomings' that only result in 99% gains for 2011 (or more).
ReplyDeleteSounds like we all buy the vino at TJ's. I have several cases. Will likely be drinking the Merlot tonight.
Cheers!
FF
Speaking of vino, can anyone recommend a good cheap red and white wine? i'm looking to get 30 bottles of each for our wedding. budget style.
ReplyDeleteAnd here's to 2nd celebrating his early retirement...in 2011.
Charles Shaw, also known as two buck chuck.
ReplyDeleteRates quite well in tastings with wines 25 times the price, available for $2.49 a bottle at Trader Joe's.
VERY inexpensive but good Napa Valley varietals. Sometimes they also have Australian Chardonnay.
TJ's buys all of the vintage which allows the insane price. Pretty much everyone I know drinks it. Don't know if you have a Trader Joe's there, hopefully you do.
FF
Best wishes to all here as well!!! Have a safe and fun evening.
ReplyDeletetof-
ReplyDelete(a) We have Mark's opinion from earlier this year- ie, Shaw sources quality grapes from the same growers used in more expensive vintages.
(b) My wife and I attended a wedding in August where we noted they had dozens of cases of Shaw stacked at the reception restaurant. I heard no complaints.
(c) I think I posted my wife's observation of a gentleman loading 4 cases into his S500 outside our local TJ's.
Bottom line: the guests are there for YOU, not for the wine. For those who care, they will only smile in approval. It's good wine.
Happy New Year to everyone! I hope everyone has progress in every major area of life AND will be happy and proud of that progress. In particular, I wish everyone a prosperous year, with a larger percentage gain in the port than in 2010.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking for myself, I had a pretty good year in 2010, with no problems to recall and only accomplishments that I can be proud off. My port had a good year as well, finishing today at YTD highs, which are about 45% higher than what I started this year with.
Right now, I can use this port to buy for cash an inexpensive house in San Jose. So 2nd_ave's prediction about me starting to shop for a home soon might turn out to be correct. :)
Commercials buying or covering gold again this week. IMO, they wouldn't be doing that if it wasn't headed higher.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that TWM reached the $12.50 level today and triggered my buy stop orders in all accounts. Right now I have about 4% of my port in TWM (excluding IRA and Coverdell ESA), in addition to various put options I have now accumulated (expiring in January, February and March). If we get a market dip in January, I'll close all my puts and TWM, since I don't expect that dip to be a start of the bear market. Rather, I do think the market will then move higher until the end of QE2 in the summer. After that, the market will either stay flat or go down, but I don't think it will be able to make any more progress after the end of QE2.
ReplyDelete45%? I remember dinner at 21a in January with you and Mark, where I said something about +100%. You and Mark actually ended up in the 'ballpark.' I feel kind of bad about the 12%.
ReplyDeleteIMAX - A ten year high on this, last day of 2010...
ReplyDeleteCan't get enough of CADC (Ode to CADC)
ReplyDeleteI've heard people say that
Too much of anything is not good for you, baby
Oh no
But I don't know about that
There's many times that we've loved
We've shared love and made love
It doesn't seem to me like it's enough
There's just not enough of it
There's just not enough
Oh oh, babe
My darling, I can't get enough of your love babe
Girl, I don't know, I don't know why
Can't get enough of your love babe
Oh, some things I can't get used to
No matter how I try
Just like the more you give, the more I want
And baby, that's no lie
Oh no, babe