Hey Guys - It's official...I'm hitched! Thanks a lot for your wishes. It's great to get kind words from a bunch of people I've never met before.
The wedding was an absolute blast! It went perfectly and the location was unbelievable. We got married right on the cliffs in Ocean Beach (about 4 miles north of downtown San Diego) at a private villa. It was about 60-62 degrees and sunny and the view was amazing. My wife was stunning in her dress. We started the wedding at 2pm just in case it got too cold and planned on ending at 7pm but we had a huge dance party and ended up hiring the DJ and bartender for another 3 hours. Everyone I talked to and heard said it was the best wedding they've ever been to. I can't wait to get pictures...I'll show you guys them when we get them. We will post them to our website. Oh - and my brother gave a hilarious speech, basically just making fun of me for my forgetfulness and tradition of doing things at the last minute. He got a lot of laughs.
Anyway, thanks again for the words and hope you all had a good weekend too. It's good to be hitched!
The market sold off but reversed nicely. Unfortunately, this wasn't enough to put it back in the plus column for the day.
It wasn't a bad week though--Any time the market goes up 1-2% in a week, I'm not going to complain.
Aside from a few stinking up the joint, the sector action remains constructive. Most, like the overall market, remain in longer-term uptrends.
I'm amazed at the amount of bears that come out the woodwork every time the indices have a bit of downtick. There seems to be a Chicken Little "the sky is falling" mentality out there. I like this. The more that think this market is doomed, the higher it will go.
As usual, they have confused the issue with facts--i.e. they aren't looking at the charts.
'Sine the 2009 market bottom, John Hussman has remained thoroughly bearish on the economy and the market, so of course he's greatly lagged the broader market.
Like many others, such as David Rosenberg, he's beginning to sound pretty defensive.
Consider his latest note.
First he explains his error, and his error basically comes down to: 'other people are dumb.'
You know, everyone's 'right' for a period of time- and it can be a long time. Then they're wrong for awhile. Hussman's been wrong for awhile. But so what? So was Bill Miller. Warren Buffett. Hell, even Mark's been wrong.
Mark - yeah, we can't take a honeymoon until May because of my tax work (we're going to Greece) and we went to bed at 8pm last night so I'm up early just checking some stuff. We have one day off then its back to the grind until May.
One thing I came across on the VIX: http://www.raymondjames.com/technical_commentary.asp
Notice that the VIX gapped up today. Could be trending up now.
I returned from my skiing trip last night and didn't have the time yet to read yesterday's discussion.
For now, I see that the market is slightly in the red today, VIX has jumped up, copper spot price is down, but FCX is up! This doesn't seem to me like a constructive environment for stocks yet. So I decided to remove my stops on the FCX short and use a mental stop at the moment when, say, the copper spot price rises above $4.30.
I also see that I got stopped out today at $38 from the 300 shares of TBT I purchased at $37.60, for a gain of $120. It is not much, but such a gain is still better than a loss of $1120, which is what I might get with FCX when I stop myself out. :)
Also, I see that my first sell limit order on my January $39 EWP puts was triggered today at $5 for 4 out of 7 puts I bought for $3.50. Now that I covered my cost basis in these puts, I can let the rest of them run, and I have staggered sell limit orders for them at $6, $7, and $8.
Let's see if I can get something out of FCX by day trading. I see FCX is making higher lows for the past few hours, and so I just covered 3/4 of my short position (300 shares) at $118.20 and placed a sell short stop order for these shares at $117.98, just below the previous low.
Also, I see that SLV established a clear resistance level in high 28's over the past month, and so I just placed a buy to cover stop limit order at $29/$29.10 for my 400 short shares of SLV.
OK, no luck with FCX day trading. As soon as I placed my stop, it promptly reversed its uptrend and rushed down to hit my stop. So now I am back with my full FCX short, having lost 20 cents off my cost basis with my day trading attempt.
Well, let me see if I can once again temporarily exit a part of my FCX short intraday. I just covered 300 shares at $18.39 and placed a sell short stop order for them at $17.90, just below the recent low.
In fact, what the hell -- I just bought 300 shares of FCX. I feel that the broad market and FCX are set to move higher into the EOD, so why not flip the pancake temporarily?
yo, yo bro - not much, still actually employed, they keep canning sr vp's so I'm just trying to keep my head down. our sales kickoff mtg is next week so I've been super busy playing admin trying to get my partner execs mtgs with the sap exec's. taylor is in Italy so it's quiet on the home front.
All right, out of my FCX long at $118.75. So I have just not only avoided losing some money intraday on my FCX short but also made some cash on the long side. :)
Not much new here. Girls have started up in soccer again. Thank God. I actually think Hailey might be better than Kendra. They had to scrimmage against each other at practice the other day and Hailey stole the ball from her once. Too funny. Kendra's coach gave her a ration of shit.
OPEN- This sucker cracks me up. I swear I've seen at least 4 dudes come on CNBC saying to short it. You almost NEVER see just one say that. Maybe the lesson is never to short on fundies alone. I think I heard someone say that once.
Please remind me: why did I venture, once again, into shorting US markets (FCX, IWM) when they are in a long-term uptrend, instead of sticking to shorting the European markets (EWP), which are in a long-term downtrend?
Igor just mentioned to me that he opened a starter position in CALM (which has been hit hard in the past couple of weeks), and I decided to follow him and opened a small starter position in the company as well. The world is not about to find a substitute for eggs any time soon, and so in the long run the price of eggs should follow the general pattern of food inflation.
So FCX broke above its one-week resistance (based on its intraday highs) at $118.50 today. If this move is real, then it should gap up tomorrow and continue up. Or it can first drop a little below $118 so as to hit the stops of those traders who went long today and placed them at the level of the previous resistance at $118.
Alternatively, if FCX drops below $117 in the near future, then it would seem like today's move was a fake to draw in the final impatient longs before the final move down. So I just placed a sell short stop limit order for the same 300 shares of FCX at $117/$116.90
TWM has a very interesting one-month chart of intraday prices available at google/finance. What do you guys think will be next on this chart? I think a drop below the $12.2 support level is unavoidable in order to shake out those who placed stops at that level. If after such a drop TWM rises above $12.30, then it might be a good time to buy it.
The script for the stock market remains the same for the past few days: the Big Boyz remove their buy orders in the morning and let the nervous longs sell their shares to them, and then they pick up the pieces in the afternoon. This sure looks like accumulation to me before a new leg up.
The alternative explanation for this behavior is that black box trading algorithms are trying to lull the human bulls into thinking that every dip will always get bought, so as to get as many of them on board as possible and completely extinguish all exasperated shorts, before finally switching taking this market down with no one on board of the southbound train but themselves.
If the market had just endured a major leg down and the majority of investors were bearish now, I would say we are definitely seeing scenario #1 -- accumulation. But given that the market just had a major leg up and the majority of investors is bullish, the chances of this being the second scenario are increasing. But then, the US market is in a definite long-term uptrend, and so the recent plateau we have had could really be a respite before a new leg up, and hence some accumulation now under scenario #1 could indeed make sense.
I'd say early participants remain bullish, with intent to continue riding the wave as non-believers slowly regain enough confidence to explore re-entry to the market?
ie: Are we still in denial phase (majority remain in denial?), with possible acceptance phase at some point in the future?
I have no mechanism to calculate and thus prove, these imaginary coordinates.
Then again, Roubini says all kinds of things, so any number of them could be right.
There are a lot of guys out there who are good at giving several different predictions simultaneously, I assume so they can go back through history and cherry pick them.
And here's how they justify their actions. The oddest thing is they truly believe they're innocent, it's the most amazing thing. You could never believe it if you didn't experience it first-hand, it's not an easy phenomenon for most folks to grasp second-hand:
"Judge, I can't be remorseful for something I don't think I did," DeLay said at the hearing, before the sentence was handed down."
Hey Guys - It's official...I'm hitched! Thanks a lot for your wishes. It's great to get kind words from a bunch of people I've never met before.
ReplyDeleteThe wedding was an absolute blast! It went perfectly and the location was unbelievable. We got married right on the cliffs in Ocean Beach (about 4 miles north of downtown San Diego) at a private villa. It was about 60-62 degrees and sunny and the view was amazing. My wife was stunning in her dress. We started the wedding at 2pm just in case it got too cold and planned on ending at 7pm but we had a huge dance party and ended up hiring the DJ and bartender for another 3 hours. Everyone I talked to and heard said it was the best wedding they've ever been to. I can't wait to get pictures...I'll show you guys them when we get them. We will post them to our website. Oh - and my brother gave a hilarious speech, basically just making fun of me for my forgetfulness and tradition of doing things at the last minute. He got a lot of laughs.
Anyway, thanks again for the words and hope you all had a good weekend too. It's good to be hitched!
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market sold off but reversed nicely. Unfortunately, this wasn't enough to put it back in the plus column for the day.
It wasn't a bad week though--Any time the market goes up 1-2% in a week, I'm not going to complain.
Aside from a few stinking up the joint, the sector action remains constructive. Most, like the overall market, remain in longer-term uptrends.
I'm amazed at the amount of bears that come out the woodwork every time the indices have a bit of downtick. There seems to be a Chicken Little "the sky is falling" mentality out there. I like this. The more that think this market is doomed, the higher it will go.
As usual, they have confused the issue with facts--i.e. they aren't looking at the charts.
Here's a pretty candid critique of Hussman:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/john-hussman-january-10-2011-1
'Sine the 2009 market bottom, John Hussman has remained thoroughly bearish on the economy and the market, so of course he's greatly lagged the broader market.
Like many others, such as David Rosenberg, he's beginning to sound pretty defensive.
Consider his latest note.
First he explains his error, and his error basically comes down to: 'other people are dumb.'
You know, everyone's 'right' for a period of time- and it can be a long time. Then they're wrong for awhile. Hussman's been wrong for awhile. But so what? So was Bill Miller. Warren Buffett. Hell, even Mark's been wrong.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Right on!!!.....Now back to work!!
ReplyDeleteGood drill results for RBY.
ReplyDeleteMark - yeah, we can't take a honeymoon until May because of my tax work (we're going to Greece) and we went to bed at 8pm last night so I'm up early just checking some stuff. We have one day off then its back to the grind until May.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I came across on the VIX:
http://www.raymondjames.com/technical_commentary.asp
Notice that the VIX gapped up today. Could be trending up now.
Petty wild open for BAC. Now green.
ReplyDeletePatricia and I had to wait on our honeymoon also. We're still waiting :)
Alright- we're getting a little volatility.
ReplyDeleteGMO back to that critical area.
ReplyDelete4 month bull flag for TRE?
ReplyDeleteGDX sure looks like a H&S that is working.
ReplyDeletefwiw: hedge funds double down on NGas:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hedge-Funds-Almost-Double-bloomberg-327657956.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Long TRE @ 6.52 in the other IRA.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Congrats on the reverse IPO!
ReplyDeleteGold getting bold!
ReplyDeleteACMR's chart looks pretty good.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Started popping up immediately after gold, LOL...
ReplyDeleteAKRX working nicely.
ReplyDeleteVERRRRY long basing pattern for CLNE?
ReplyDelete"VERRRRY long basing pattern for CLNE?"
ReplyDeleteFunny you say that i have been both long and shrt clne. Both flat trades.
Speaking of sideways, someone maintains a bid on DEER @ $11?
ReplyDeleteI left $40K at the REDF table. Anyone pick it up for me?
ReplyDeleteWe're the good guys when it comes to free trade:
ReplyDelete"US sets up consumer product safety office in China- AP"
Mark - I left $70k on the REDF table. eww
ReplyDeleteActually, make that $85k.
ReplyDeleteREDF - You guys crack me up, how do you manage to time these moves so well?
ReplyDeleteGMO - I need this thing to reach $6.26, I want someone else to pay my electric bill and fill my car with gas this month.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Rats continue stealing my cheese.
I don't know guys, PM's really seem to be giving it a go here, do ya think we're just moving s-ways or what?
ReplyDeleteI'm contemplating a precautionary cash raise-up but sump'n tells me wrong move...
cp - time moves well? i got REDF the 1st time but bailed at $3.4 (from $4.0ish) the 2nd time, only to watch it at over $6 now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like copper has gotten a little ahead of itself in terms of gold:
ReplyDeletehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/_YJ9lCQZp67c/TSskl5d_cTI/AAAAAAAACmw/r6QsAHw-tbg/s1600/Copper%2Bvs%2BGold%2BPP%2B%252812-07-2010%2529%2B660W.jpg
I returned from my skiing trip last night and didn't have the time yet to read yesterday's discussion.
ReplyDeleteFor now, I see that the market is slightly in the red today, VIX has jumped up, copper spot price is down, but FCX is up! This doesn't seem to me like a constructive environment for stocks yet. So I decided to remove my stops on the FCX short and use a mental stop at the moment when, say, the copper spot price rises above $4.30.
I also see that I got stopped out today at $38 from the 300 shares of TBT I purchased at $37.60, for a gain of $120. It is not much, but such a gain is still better than a loss of $1120, which is what I might get with FCX when I stop myself out. :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, I see that my first sell limit order on my January $39 EWP puts was triggered today at $5 for 4 out of 7 puts I bought for $3.50. Now that I covered my cost basis in these puts, I can let the rest of them run, and I have staggered sell limit orders for them at $6, $7, and $8.
Go gold, go... go,go,go!!!
ReplyDeleteFlood of new ships pushing Baltic Dry Index down?
ReplyDeleteLet's see if I can get something out of FCX by day trading. I see FCX is making higher lows for the past few hours, and so I just covered 3/4 of my short position (300 shares) at $118.20 and placed a sell short stop order for these shares at $117.98, just below the previous low.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I see that SLV established a clear resistance level in high 28's over the past month, and so I just placed a buy to cover stop limit order at $29/$29.10 for my 400 short shares of SLV.
ReplyDeleteOK, no luck with FCX day trading. As soon as I placed my stop, it promptly reversed its uptrend and rushed down to hit my stop. So now I am back with my full FCX short, having lost 20 cents off my cost basis with my day trading attempt.
ReplyDeleteTaking a short @ BORN here. 1000 @ 11.73. I like the fundies and the chart here.
ReplyDeleteJust looking at the VWAP for RAS back 999 days, there's a huge void. In other words, not a lot of sellers, just air.
ReplyDeleteAre you kidding me!!! 4 Fing shares of BORN filled!?
ReplyDeleteOK, all filled now. That was strange. I didn't see the fills on Level II.
ReplyDelete2 that got away without me. STEC/LNG.
ReplyDeleteATNI - Out @ $39.09 with a 0.75% gain, raise some cash in case market continues moving against me.
ReplyDeleteWell, let me see if I can once again temporarily exit a part of my FCX short intraday. I just covered 300 shares at $18.39 and placed a sell short stop order for them at $17.90, just below the recent low.
ReplyDeleteI think I'm going to start swing trading BTX, that suckers been flying all over the place.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, what the hell -- I just bought 300 shares of FCX. I feel that the broad market and FCX are set to move higher into the EOD, so why not flip the pancake temporarily?
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I went long FCX at $118.44
ReplyDeleteHi David - good luck with FCX, looking back at the chart looks like 121.50 s/b doable soon
ReplyDeleteWhat have to been up to bro?
ReplyDeleteyo, yo bro - not much, still actually employed, they keep canning sr vp's so I'm just trying to keep my head down. our sales kickoff mtg is next week so I've been super busy playing admin trying to get my partner execs mtgs with the sap exec's. taylor is in Italy so it's quiet on the home front.
ReplyDeletewaz up with you??
All right, out of my FCX long at $118.75. So I have just not only avoided losing some money intraday on my FCX short but also made some cash on the long side. :)
ReplyDeleteItaly? Wow, good for her.
ReplyDeleteNot much new here. Girls have started up in soccer again. Thank God. I actually think Hailey might be better than Kendra. They had to scrimmage against each other at practice the other day and Hailey stole the ball from her once. Too funny. Kendra's coach gave her a ration of shit.
Harlan is all trouble, 24/7.
FDO - I see this one absorbed a punch in the gut, any interest?
ReplyDeleteI like my cash while ATNI takes off into the stratosphere without me just like I knew would happen...
OPEN- This sucker cracks me up. I swear I've seen at least 4 dudes come on CNBC saying to short it. You almost NEVER see just one say that. Maybe the lesson is never to short on fundies alone. I think I heard someone say that once.
ReplyDeleteFDO- No. If the economy real does/is improving, wouldn't that hurt those play's?
ReplyDeletesounds like you've got a full house as always Mark!
ReplyDeleteHarlan's my bud, stop picking on him.
ReplyDeleteJust in case the market decides to take a late day swoon, I decided to place the sell short stop order for the same 300 shares of FCX at $118.50.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, he's pretty fun. Cracks me up, chasing the girls around the house with his sword. Do hear 50 times a day..."I can't want to."
ReplyDeleteFDO - Makes perfect sense, which is exactly why it recovers prior to mid-week... ;) I'm not gonna play it though, just so it can double.
ReplyDeleteHarlan must be terrified of those girls, how intimidating!
ReplyDeletePlease remind me: why did I venture, once again, into shorting US markets (FCX, IWM) when they are in a long-term uptrend, instead of sticking to shorting the European markets (EWP), which are in a long-term downtrend?
ReplyDeleteATNI - Failing into close to my complete dismay!
ReplyDeleteIgor just mentioned to me that he opened a starter position in CALM (which has been hit hard in the past couple of weeks), and I decided to follow him and opened a small starter position in the company as well. The world is not about to find a substitute for eggs any time soon, and so in the long run the price of eggs should follow the general pattern of food inflation.
ReplyDeleteDavid, we assumed you knew what you were doing, say it's not so!
ReplyDeleteCALM - Takes nerves of steel!
ReplyDeleteSo FCX broke above its one-week resistance (based on its intraday highs) at $118.50 today. If this move is real, then it should gap up tomorrow and continue up. Or it can first drop a little below $118 so as to hit the stops of those traders who went long today and placed them at the level of the previous resistance at $118.
ReplyDeleteAlternatively, if FCX drops below $117 in the near future, then it would seem like today's move was a fake to draw in the final impatient longs before the final move down. So I just placed a sell short stop limit order for the same 300 shares of FCX at $117/$116.90
Imbalances...
ReplyDeleteBUY- AA/DD
SELL- C/WFC/JPM/GD/DOW
CALM- Interesting, thanks.
ReplyDeleteBORN/TRE baby!!!
ReplyDeleteTWM has a very interesting one-month chart of intraday prices available at google/finance. What do you guys think will be next on this chart? I think a drop below the $12.2 support level is unavoidable in order to shake out those who placed stops at that level. If after such a drop TWM rises above $12.30, then it might be a good time to buy it.
ReplyDeleteThe script for the stock market remains the same for the past few days: the Big Boyz remove their buy orders in the morning and let the nervous longs sell their shares to them, and then they pick up the pieces in the afternoon. This sure looks like accumulation to me before a new leg up.
ReplyDeleteThe alternative explanation for this behavior is that black box trading algorithms are trying to lull the human bulls into thinking that every dip will always get bought, so as to get as many of them on board as possible and completely extinguish all exasperated shorts, before finally switching taking this market down with no one on board of the southbound train but themselves.
If the market had just endured a major leg down and the majority of investors were bearish now, I would say we are definitely seeing scenario #1 -- accumulation. But given that the market just had a major leg up and the majority of investors is bullish, the chances of this being the second scenario are increasing. But then, the US market is in a definite long-term uptrend, and so the recent plateau we have had could really be a respite before a new leg up, and hence some accumulation now under scenario #1 could indeed make sense.
Which scenario seems more plausible to you guys?
"the majority of investors is bullish"
ReplyDeleteI'd say early participants remain bullish, with intent to continue riding the wave as non-believers slowly regain enough confidence to explore re-entry to the market?
ie: Are we still in denial phase (majority remain in denial?), with possible acceptance phase at some point in the future?
I have no mechanism to calculate and thus prove, these imaginary coordinates.
SOL - Nice pop there today...
ReplyDeleteV- Interesting here. Rising 10, dropping 20, gap fill and current price all at the same point. I'll watch it really close tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteASTM.
ReplyDelete"I'll watch it really close tomorrow."
ReplyDeleteAs if that ever helps :)
2nd- Take a look at the CC comments. BC.TO seems to be putting his name behind 2 small miners. Unusual?
ReplyDeleteWell, it seems gold could potentially come off a bit from here but it's either got to catch up with copper, or copper needs to come back down.
ReplyDeleteYou aren't likely to catch me shorting either one of these...
About those forecasts.......
ReplyDeletehttp://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/01/09/that_guy_who_called_the_big_one_dont_listen_to_him/?page=full
If I didn't know better, that sounds sorta like an advertisement.
ReplyDeleteThen again, Roubini says all kinds of things, so any number of them could be right.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of guys out there who are good at giving several different predictions simultaneously, I assume so they can go back through history and cherry pick them.
"Republican leader Tom DeLay sentenced to three years in prison"
ReplyDeleteFurther proof of the holier than thou mentality that thrives inside the capitol beltway.
And here's how they justify their actions. The oddest thing is they truly believe they're innocent, it's the most amazing thing. You could never believe it if you didn't experience it first-hand, it's not an easy phenomenon for most folks to grasp second-hand:
ReplyDelete"Judge, I can't be remorseful for something I don't think I did," DeLay said at the hearing, before the sentence was handed down."
Aside from Japan, most of Asia is nicely green. Something must've gone right somewhere but I'm stumped as to what's changed....
ReplyDelete