Wednesday, January 19, 2011
1/19/11 Change In The Weather?
I have no clue, but I'm protecting my YTD gains (4% in the buy-and-hold half on a 3-day trade in FSELX last week).
Nothing complicated about my decision:
(a) I opened INTC/CSCO in the trading half January 11 at an average of 21/20.88 with the intention of holding the stocks in place of cash. I opted to close the positions at an average of 20.95/20.77 after hours (within the first 5 minutes of close). Psychologically, all I'm looking at right now is 'missed opportunity' (ie, the post-earnings spike in INTC)- I'm not willing to take a loss on the positions.
(b) I could wait until later this week for confirmation of a trend reversal, but INTC/CSCO might easily drop another 2-3%, more or less wiping out the gains in the other half of the portfolio. The odds of a significant pullback rose markedly today, IMO. Looking at the price drops in stocks like AA/AXP/BAC/CSCO/GE, I can sense caution replacing complacency.
(c) Unlike FSELX, I am able to reopen INTC/CSCO at any time. If the rally resumes tomorrow, I can probably find intraday reentry points.
100% cash. At least, until tomorrow.
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Well, this could be the death of chatroll!
ReplyDeleteGMO bounced right of off Illini's 63ema.
all they need are more HP servers powered by SAP HANA technology
ReplyDeleteshort term traders are selling into this bounce IMO. AAPL and FCX are major tells in my mind.
ReplyDeleteJB- You have no Fing idea what that means!
ReplyDeleteFinancials working.
ReplyDeletebusted!!!
ReplyDeleteBacon, (BCON) sizzling.
ReplyDeleteI'd actually be doing well if it wasn't for LEXVF.
ReplyDeleteremind me again why i closed my apple short. a retest of 325 was given.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting killed, re-balanced my long portfolio at the exact wrong time.
ReplyDeletetof - I'm adding some aapl, intc and csco for the long port, long term I still think these co's will the primary beneficiaries of the middle class boom in the BRIC's
JB - I hear ya man. I guess it's just a matter of timing. I don't think the pullback is done so I think there will be better entry points across the board.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Well, we knew GMO would move back to it's previous consolidation level upon such events. Could go lower if we're not near the end.
ReplyDeleteCADC's early strength was kinda odd, I guess there aren't many sellers there. China needs infrastructure and I'm sure it's on their top 3 list of priorities.
ABX - Humm, metals sure were a good tell this time around again.
Bidders still showing up for RAS.
ReplyDelete1500 Target - Interesting how GS's target was so timely.
ReplyDeleteU$D - Seems like traders are betting on a higher U$D in advance, wonder if they'll get what they want?
ReplyDeleteI've given up on trying to figure out currencies, there must be numerous factors I am overlooking because I am always wrong, directionally.
ReplyDeleteI woke up, saw the steady ramp up in the stock indexes after a sell-off early in the day and decided to close 1/3 of my VXX (500 shares) at $32.55.
ReplyDeleteAs I have expected yesterday, VXX did rise to $33 today and hit my sell limit orders for 100 shares I purchased at $32 on the way down and also for 100 shares I purchased yesterday after hours at $32.12. Somehow, I left there one more extra sell limit at $33 for 100 shares, which we can count as the shares purchased at $32.50 on the way down. So the "money pump" did spit out some more money for me today, right on my birthday. :)
happy birthday David!
ReplyDeleteOK, maybe I was wrong -- maybe the steady ramp up we saw in the indices since the morning low is over. I just repurchased 300 shares of VXX at $32.75 (which I sold earlier at $32.55).
ReplyDeleteNaah... I still don't believe that the bears can push the market lower today, and so I just sold at $32.71 the 300 shares of VXX I purchased a little while ago at $32.75.
ReplyDeleteI really can't make up my mind about today. Now it seems to me that the indices just made a lower high and are headed lower. So I just purchased at $32.72 those damn 300 shares of VXX.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it that the moment I buy/sell VXX it moves the other way???
ReplyDeleteSo the indices did turn up after all... I decided to take profit on one of my 3 FCX puts and just sold at $19.10 the put I purchased yesterday at $14.30. As for the other two puts I purchased at $14.75, I decided to place a sell stop limit order at $16/$15.75 and will trail it up according to Laundry's system.
ReplyDeletePicked up some GMXR 5.08
ReplyDeleteUNG breaking out of 2 year base/channel. A move up would be explosive. Large reverse head and should pattern in natural gas as well. Tomorrow is do or die day for UNG as it hits previous resistance at 6.39. I think the last great buying opp was at 5.93 where all of the MA's were waiting for a pullback.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s202393439]&disp=O
Barclays predicts $2 natgas in 2011
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=64798&pt=msg&mid=10005992
Games, games, games:)
Just bought 3000 shares of ECUXF at $1.12. Starting to scale back in slowly into what should be a $2 stock soon.
ReplyDeletePlacing buy limit orders for 3000 shares of ECUXF at $1.08, $1.05 and $1.01.
ReplyDeletePicked up DOG after hours 43.35. We have a failure on the weeklies after a pop-up at the start of the week. I think its the Dow's turn to play catch up....
ReplyDeleteSince I sold 200 "extra" shares of VXX today at $32.55, I decided to place a buy stop limit order for these shares at $32.02/$32.05, so as to get back in at a better price in case the market starts selling off tomorrow again after a minor opening gap. I do think, however, that a gap down is more likely tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteHappy B-day David!
ReplyDelete