Monday, January 24, 2011
1/24/11 Ridgetop
Man it sure feels as if we're sitting on a ridgetop, gazing at a long dip in the road ahead before it twists and turns towards the next rise.
Mark- I have to say neither chatroll nor Disqus works that well for me while at work. Probably firewall issues.
Good evening!- 2nd, I also had a nice chat with CP today. I guess the new comment screens consume a lot of bandwidth. I'm posting this here because when I switch back to the blooger comment section we might lose some time/comments. Mark
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Hi!
ReplyDeleteJesse- Could you do me (us) a favor. I tried to save your last comments but something didn't work. They should still be available to you. Can you copy/paste then here? I thought they were great.
ReplyDeleteHey Mark. I'm assuming that they were deleted? I don't see them anywhere in my account. Let me know if there's a place I should look.
ReplyDeleteJesse- Shot I thought they would still be in your account. Sorry, I did think they were well thought out. It seems you live in the USA and Asia?
ReplyDeleteI had a comment that was blown away also. It was the first one on the new post and it was about EK. No big loss. Mark, you have made changes since then. Time stamp. Also, now I am commenting under Google account. My Black Hawk helo icon should show up. All for the better, I presume.
ReplyDeleteBut what happened to "newest first"?
ReplyDeleteillini- Were back to the original comment screen. It was just causing to much trouble for some guys.
ReplyDeleteQuick question. Do you use/have stops?
I use mental stops that are lenient. That's because I am trying to be more intermediate and even longer term. IT may mean failing support at 63 day EMA. 200 day EMA for LT, 20 day for short term. Very short term is not my forte (if I have one).
ReplyDeleteRight now I am being lenient on stops for UXG, RBY and GLD. We shall see but I can hold out.
OK- I made 2 posts earlier. 1 of which was about the dollar exactly at support, the S+P exactly re-testing the upward sloping channel at today's close, and the tightening of the spread between the VIX spot price and the February price, meaning VXX should follow VIX very closely if a spike occurs in the very short term.
ReplyDeleteIf the market has entered a new season w/ last week's break of the long channel, w/ the dollar at support, and the S+P re-testing the channel, the market should crumble starting tomorrow. If not, last week was probably not a change of seasons (especially w/ SMH breaking out of a multi-year channel)
The second post was about SHZ. It has exactly hit its 10 week ma 3 times during its breakout. 2 of the 3 times, it immediately surged 100-125% within ONE week. The 3rd, it slowly meandered up 100% over a dreadfully long 3 weeks. If it has another big run in it, it will have to hit $5.85 first OR do nothing this week and wait for the 10 week ma to play catch up. BTW- if it does nothing for the rest of the week, the weekly setup looks damn good...
4 chart down-
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3644290&cmd=show[s192470233]&disp=O
Man, the quandary of gold is far greater than even Harlan Kane's Next Bestseller: The Abacus Conundrum!
ReplyDeleteTest
ReplyDeleteMy post from last night dissappeared but I'm glad it did. My spelling was so bad that my 3rd grader would probably not approve.
CP- You have to be pleased with the strength in GMO today.
ReplyDeleteAnd regarding residency Mark, I put all of my stuff in storage in Atlanta and now consider myself to be a citizen of the world. I've gone to great lengths to disentangle myself from the American "contractual existence" hanging over my head my entire life- i.e. no mortgage, home rental contract, cell phone contract, health club contract, car payment contract, directv contract, mobile data contract, home internet contract...I could go on and on...and on. You simply don't have these in most parts of the world.
ReplyDeleteThis has enabled me to become highly mobile and has given me a feeling of immense freedom that I never had before.
But...yes, I will be returning to SE Asia in 2 weeks to re-unite with my girlfriend who is even more of a vagabond than I am lol. While I'm in Beijing, I should check out the operations of SHZ:)
Port- Unfortunately, my 4th grader understood it all too well :)
ReplyDeleteJesse- Sheess...I get to take road trips to Sacramento to watch little kids play soccer :(
ReplyDeleteGood for you man!
Hi everyone!
ReplyDeleteSeems we were in disconnect for awhile! Glad to find my way back home.
Hope all is well and here's a tune to remind you of my love for all of you!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bng3agUOYiI&feature=player_embedded
love
vb
Somehow, some stupid gmail photo I uploaded years ago is showing up. I changed it in gmail as well as here. Let's see if this post changes it.
ReplyDeleteI do not want to come off as a gold bug. Never have been. Wish that I was in last 10 years. The times are extra ordinary. UXG and RBY are longer term speculations that I believe to be pretty safe. I am fairly conservative and hold cash or near cash until an opportunity arises. I have a pair of legacy stocks that may never fully come back but produce a dividend.
ReplyDeleteWhy the hell do I feel so Fing old all of a sudden?
ReplyDeleteIllini- Not at all. It just seems to me that for NOW, PM's are under a lot of pressure, and strong support is a ways away. Thanks for the clarification.
ReplyDeleteVB- Love you to. Hope all is well my friend :)
ReplyDeleteThis is not a pretty chart for gold.
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=&a=&w=&v=d6
Natty - if I were trading futures I probably would have bought the Mar11 contract on Friday seeing how it closed at a new 5 month high at $4.743 and this is the 6th new high for the Mar contract since 10/25/2010. And also, if I were a disciplined futures trader I hopefully would have been stopped out (or about to be stopped out) before today's close at $4.598.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing I've noticed too is that since 10/25/2010, everytime you have a large red (down) candle like this, natty either trades sideways or down for 3 to 5 days before resuming the uptrend.
If I were to buy UNG in the next week, I would make sure I have a stop in place.
As far as a target to the upside, there seems to be a lot of resistance around the 5.10-5.20 area. I'm still surprised we have not had any rallies to that level.
On a positive note, Cal 12 and Cal 13 really seem to be forming a good base so maybe the low's for the forwards are in even though we might see prompt (and UNG) get smacked back down pretty hard.
Now I can't find it but I was listening to Fast Money and I thought they said you should expect to hear a lot of renewable energy talk from Pres Obama's state of the union talk. I also see that Goldman added FSLR to their conviction buy list. Hmmmmmmmmm.
ReplyDeleteYes, PM's are under pressure, a short term victim of their success which is predicated on the longer term demise of the dollar. I won't bet on any fiat currency at this point but I do have a position in CYB, as a near cash position with potential in relation to the dollar.
ReplyDeletePort.... I remember GWB stating in SoU that hydrogen cars were coming. Never happened. Also, remembering BC in 90's: "The era of big government is over". What a farce. Unfortunately, I also remember GWB coining the term "axis of evil" in a post 9-11 SoU address. That one had some repercussions. Mostly negative, IMO. But it did ignite a phony stock market rally in March 2003 when we finally invaded Iraq.
ReplyDeleteI was just thinking that if the market declines (it would be a BIG)tomorrow, the futures wouldn't show anything until sometime after the housing numbers come out at 9am. Housing futures suggest a pretty steep decline in prices over the next few months. I don't think the public expects this in the least....
ReplyDeleteThe media could then "blame" the market collapse on the housing #. We'll see....
I either see a small gain tomorrow or a BIG drop. Nothing else.
jesse - i don't think housing has anything to do with the market right now. if it goes up the market likes it...if not, no one expects it to go up. right now, the only thing taking the market down is profit taking.
ReplyDeleteevery blog i read says we're due for a short term pullback. that makes me wary of shorting.
Concerning gold, the following 12/30 NBR episode rings a bell in my mind (fast forward to the commodities analysts interview):
ReplyDeletehttp://video.pbs.org/video/1715938904/
Hi VB, nice hearing from ya'!
ReplyDeleteEnd of the pomo trade? Will it be possible to stop the semiconductors????
ReplyDeleteFrom Morgan Stanley's Quantiative and Derivative Strategies: "market conditions over the last two weeks are somewhat reminiscent of that during the August 2007 ‘Quant Crisis’. In only a few days, a number of quantitative long-short equity funds experienced unprecedented losses in seemingly ‘normal’ market conditions. We do not suggest here that the magnitude of hypothetical losses match those from 2007, however, there is little question that the rotation has drawn attention of many quant investors." In other words, the massive groupthink trade that we have been warning about for months may be about to claim its first mass casualties.
The just released report by author Charles Crow elaborates what many have been suspecting, yet few dared to voice: "Recent substantial factor movements in Europe have contributed to portfolio volatility and, in some cases, abrupt performance degradation. Portfolios positioned to take advantage of prevailing factor trends may have suffered substantially over the last two weeks." Is the groupthink trade about to end? If so, does that mean the funds will be forced to stop "not fighting the Fed" as this is really the only factor-driven trade that has made sense. If so, we have reached the critical point where being aligned alongside the Fed has no incremental marginal returns, at least for the non-Primary Dealers. This could promptly transform to a watershed event, especially since as Morgan Stanley adds, the market currently has "relatively low liquidity" to absorb the fringe moves.
From "Trade with Mojo":
Our less than politically correct interpretation of this finding, as noted above, is that the traditional "don't fight the Fed" trade, validated by whatever combination of factors, is now on its last breath, and all those who are caught in it last, will see massive losses, ergo the scramble to rotate out. Should this indeed be the case, we are due for some material market turbulence as the quants struggle to reposition themselves in a market which is no longer dependent on the day to day whims of Ben Bernanke and the "Sack Frost" POMO dynamic duo. Lastly, if indeed we are in the midst of an August 2007-type of Hurricane, it is about to get a whole lot messier. Add Tom DeMark's expectations for an 11% decline in stocks, and not even the "Fed Frontrunners" may be able to continue the melt up at this point.
Interesting stuff, Jesse -- thanks for posting this!
ReplyDeleteEven to a naked eye it is apparent that the largest momentum trades, small caps and commodities, have reversed. For example, as of this very moment, S&P futures are green but the copper price is down. During the past two years, copper was leading equities during every leg up and every correction.
ReplyDeleteSmall caps haven't participated in the rebound. They could possibly play catch up and rally hard. Tomorrow is the key day imo.
ReplyDeleteAs for the most over-owned stock in the history of the market- "The open system has always won. Always".
I still see low 200's in 2011. I also expect massive insider sales over the next month or so.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/01/19/in-the-long-run-apple-will-bow-to-android-reality/
You would think that if the FED really wanted the equities rally to continue, they'd do a little better job of faking it. Equities traders are gonna notice, and get nervous as commodities prices soften.
ReplyDeleteUnless of course that's what someone really wants us to notice...
David - I think it makes sense to proceed with caution on the short side. We're still above all major moving averages.
ReplyDeleteHa, so what happens when gasoline hits $5 this summer and all those folks who bought SUV's and trucks in 2010 decide they don't want to make payments on their gas guzzlers anymore? I hope GM got a good down payment on their loans...
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone recall the market response following the last state of the union address? I just can't imagine the list of accomplishments is going to be an extensive one...
ReplyDeleteWow, look at gold sink. I knew I shoulda' sold ABX today and taken my little lump before it became a large lump. Why do I even bother trying to trade gold??? I've been avoiding it for over a year and a half and now that there's a little pullback and I dip my toe in, the pullback becomes an avalanche.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the freekin' chances, I mean, really?
The spot copper price over the past month looks like a triangle with a rising support line and a falling resistance line, and when that triangle breaks, the move in copper will probably be a very large one. My bet is that the triangle breaks to the downside and copper quickly drops to around $4 and maybe lower...
ReplyDeleteJesse may turn out to correct in his prediction of a big down day tomorrow: the copper spot price is down significantly right now, and the index futures have all turned red...
ReplyDeleteI would think that if the market is going to sell off, gold should catch a bid as a safe haven.
ReplyDeleteBut then what do I know, I expected gold would be a safe haven back in 2008 but the dollar and T's became the safe haven...
ReplyDeleteWonder if Cara went to all cash yesterday? I guess we'll have to wait for our portfolios to sink to oblivion before he tells us what he's doing, LOL!
ReplyDeleteCP- Cara's latest:
ReplyDeleteIn Sunday's WIR I made the comment that emotions were causing traders to throw away the shares of the best precious metal companies, like Silver Wheaton (SLW), one that I believe should be included in everybody’s core holdings. The price keeps dropping, but I hold to my belief that relative to the metal prices these shares are inexpensive.
In this week’s Precious Metals Weekly from Canaccord, this same point about value laden goldminer share prices is made, with some calculations that might surprise you.
At what price of gold do you think are discounting? Goldcorp (GG TSX:G) closed yesterday at $39.69 on the NYSE and spot gold at $1334.24. As the table below shows, Goldcorp stock at $40.49 and spot gold at $1362 a week ago, was discounting gold at $1149, based on 52-week averages. Now that discount would be greater. This morning, in fact, the spot gold price has fallen to about $1325 and the discount is likely to be about 17% for Goldcorp.
In the long run we are all dead; however, thankfully we are still vertical. That means of course that when investing we look for value.
Of course, investors in real estate will tell you that value today could be even deeper value tomorrow. So, for that, we also need to look at the current prices of the goldminers relative to their Moving Averages. Technical analysts will say these PM share prices have turned bearish, falling below their 50-day MA, which has fallen below their 200-day MA, for most. They will also recommend looking for the bounces and the reaction of the market to those times. You can screen daily for prices in this industry group that lift above the 10- or 20-day MA. If the numbers start building, then you know there is a bounce. When the majority of prices lift over the 50-day MA, you can start to believe the rally might be sustainable. There is some work to do.
Emotions that can take stocks so far, so quickly in one direction, can just as easily do the opposite, particularly when such an anomaly occurs with one group as it is today with the goldminers.
Cara cont'd:
ReplyDeleteAs I see it, gold is money and trading like any other currency. The currency market has been extremely volatile recently. In the past couple weeks, when the gold price dropped a bit less than -3.0%, the US Dollar index dropped almost +20% more and the Euro lifted, over the same period, almost +5.5%.
As we know these prices rise and fall very quickly these days. Something to think about. I admit to being surprised, however. Even more, I am disappointed in giving back almost half the extensive gains I made earlier.
The pressure is definitely on.
So he's given back half his gains...
ReplyDeleteWhat up with BAC? Anyone know?
ReplyDeleteWow, I'm shocked he shared that much. Maybe he's not such a dufus after all?
ReplyDeleteBAC - If I were to guess, it's trading in a range from ~$11 to $15 or so.
ReplyDeleteWow! I just made some nice coin on my GOOG calls..sold at $19 that I bought yesterday at $13
ReplyDeleteABX - Well I'm only down 4.2% at this point, so I guess that's not so bad considering... NEM looks like a buy too.
ReplyDeleteSLW- 29 handle...
ReplyDeleteRe SLW- I'm thinking back to my 'off the cuff' post a couple of weeks ago, where I commented (purely based on TA) that it would be a short if it broke 36. TA was right on in that case.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we have seen a panic washout in Gold/Silver just yet. When volume spikes and we get a big whoosh down its probably a good time to buy.
ReplyDeleteSLW - I'm thinking of the historical gold:silver ratio, I think silver has already moved quite a bit an doesn't have as much upside potential as gold at this point. On the other hand, there may be other factors to justify this ratio in terms of miner prices, such as production cost per ounce and it's impact on profitability.
ReplyDeleteI can also imagine more potential downside with silver as well, due to this ratio.
tof- I'm thinking the same thing. No panic yet. We'll know it when fights break out amongst the believers.
ReplyDeleteMarket feels like its just market time before a final thrust higher. Vix is up much higher than at recent lows yet the market has basically traded sideways for a week-10 days now.
ReplyDeletesorry...marking time.
ReplyDeleteSLW - Case in point, SLW has actually fallen further than ABX for instance, so I'd have to say silver is at least more volatile. I recall looking at the charts over a month ago and thinking silver could fall to ~$20.
ReplyDeleteAre we in overdrive yet?
hopped back into my GOOG calls at $18.
ReplyDeleteSLW - Also note the gap up from $30 in Nov. has now filled.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be a spectacular sight if silver and gold both retested their respective 200 DMA?
ReplyDeleteMetals - Probably the best thing to do is watch copper and see if everything moves in unison.
ReplyDeleteman...got greedy on those GOOG calls and should have sold earlier. Sold at $18.2 for a small profit.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess dow does a little wobble here just prior to shooting the 12K
ReplyDeleteHDY
ReplyDeleteUXG filled it's tiny gap and is holding the 100.
ReplyDelete"Hyperdynamics announces termination of letter of intent and updates plans"
ReplyDeleteCADC/GMO - These never move together...
ReplyDelete12k + 1,300 today?
ReplyDeleteBEXP bounced right off of S2 while I was picking my nose.
ReplyDeleteBidding BEXP @ 24.88.
ReplyDeleteEarly dip buyers in SLW feeling the heat.
ReplyDeleteBidding UXG @ 5.83.
ReplyDeleteGL!...
ReplyDeletevolatility is really high today. high risk trades should probably be avoided.
ReplyDeletei'm making my list of stocks to buy on a big dip, should it come. LNG is at the top of my list.
ReplyDeleteCREE - showing some turn??
ReplyDeleteOpening SLW @ 29.12 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5169 comments) on Tue, 01/25/2011 - 11:44 #78320
ReplyDeleteAlright- wading in with 25% of allocation.
too make fake outs already this a.m., sitting firmly on my hands for the balance of the day.
ReplyDeletestill allocating funds on a biweekly basis to a couple of bond mutual funds but that's on autopilot
2nd - I followed you on SLW for a trade at $29.18.
ReplyDeleteLots of inverse etf's crawling out of what look to be terminal bases. ERY, DOG, CMD, VXX (not an inverse) etc. As I type, the market is turning up, but I don't see how the S+P can challenge 1300 again.
ReplyDeletesold SLW at $29.3 for a profit of...wait for it...$140.
ReplyDeletejesse: fed speech + state of union = expect the unexpected. a move above 1,300 is always possible.
ReplyDeleteMeant to say "DUG" not "DOG" in the previous post...
ReplyDeleteDon't we need to close red in preparation for tonight's inspirational speech and tomorrows rally?
ReplyDeleteI wish for once I could experience the unexpected...
ReplyDeleteI'm always expecting the unexpected TOF:) That's why I'm using market stops more and more these days. Hope you got my email last night regarding market performance surrounding S.O.U. Address.
ReplyDeleteI'm licking my chops over here w/ SHZ but my gut tells me that any long positions will be punished....hard.
Long a few GOOG $600 calls again at $18.3
ReplyDeletejesse - yeah got your email...thanks. i couldn't find much of a tradable trend in the action around those speeches. it seems like in the short term (i.e., at least a month or so) that the market didn't move too much
ReplyDeleteT's, dollar action certainly support the inverse case.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about you guys but for me, this speech needs to clarify a number of issues, the ship is beginning to feel more and more rudderless lately.
ReplyDeleteSold VXX and ERY for a little gain. FXI and EEM look like they may have bottomed, at least temporarily. The likelihood of a trend day down is minimal now imo...
ReplyDeleteNatgas falling like a rock after failed breakout of 2 year channel and failure on the weekly.
ReplyDeleteUNG looks like the target, but this ETF rolls contracts so chart doesn't mean much to me.
ReplyDeletetarget $5.5-5.75
ReplyDeleteI think GOOG breaks out here to the mid 620's. It's just buying time right now.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe the metals rally will resume once the Chinese new year has wound down...
ReplyDelete10wma alert:
ReplyDeleteWEBM, WLT, TZOO all hit their 10wma today. TZOO and WEBM are spiking off it.
However, I see quite a few names slicing through their respective 10wma's. Changing market character. Still waiting for SHZ to nudge up against its own to see what fireworks may or may not erupt.
TMF- triple bond etf looks great on the daily and weekly.
ReplyDeleteBEXP filled @ 24.88. Right at S1. Currently up 1.7% and sitting on PP.
ReplyDeleteMissed UXG by .02. Pulling bid for now.
ReplyDeleteJess - I personally think TA is completely useless on leveraged ETFs.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, check out the Daily chart on MGM...looks like it's coming into support at around $14.1.
SHZ - My understanding is they have no Rare Earths in their portfolio.
ReplyDeleteGap fill for BAC and now below my sale price.
ReplyDeleteCYD - Wow, I hadn't looked at this one in a while...
ReplyDeleteIn SDS and DOG
ReplyDeletePicked up UNG 6.04 for possible reversal into state of the union.
ReplyDelete"Vix is up much higher than at recent lows yet the market has basically traded sideways for a week-10 days now."
ReplyDeleteTOF -- remember some long time market observer said that a real correction won't start until VIX starts trending higher, which is a sign of people changing their stance from complacency to fear and switching to selling into every rally instead of buying every dip.
David - you could be right...I know this happened back in Apr/May 2010 but back then we had a few significant down days as a precursor to the down move.
ReplyDeleteahhhh jesse...ung. the widow maker.
ReplyDeleteHmmm..miners not following POG, and GLD almost green.
ReplyDeleteI am in agreement with 2nd_ave now in that instead of being silly and trying to short this market, the best opportunity right now for making a significant portfolio gain in 2011 is to start scaling into gold/silver miners right now. In fact, my buy limit orders for ECUXF at $1.04 and $1.01 got triggered today for 1% of my port, and so I did take advantage of today's price weakness. My total ECUXF position is about 27% of my port now.
ReplyDeleteI like ECUXF here because it is not only a leveraged play on the price of silver, but also because it has several company-specific news in the pipeline, and when those news hit the market, the share price will get a significant boost.
Screw it...sold my GOOG calls at $18.5 for basically breakeven after commissions.
ReplyDeleteBought 2 x $625 Goog Puts at $10.1 just now. They expire Friday. If the market pulls back, GOOG probably goes down to $600 since it's been weak since earnings.
ReplyDeleteLong TYP at $21.11
ReplyDeleteWho wants to go to the casino with me?
ReplyDeletePicked up ABKFQ .186 :):)
ReplyDeleteSold GOOG puts at $10.90...jeez that was quick.
ReplyDeleteJesse- You already bought your plane ticket, right :) Thinking short covering?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the real estate recovery, the latest Case-Shiller indices have just been released (they give the most accurate estimate of price trends in real estate since they monitor repeated sales of the same properties instead of looking at the statistically unstable median sales price). The condo index in SF dropped in November to the lowest level since the 2005 peak (outside of the 3-month period in March-May 2009 when traders were dumping their houses so as to cover the margin calls), matching the level seen in 2003 and almost matching the slightly lower level seen in 2001. I wouldn't go all-in on a stock with such a price chart... I might start "scaling in" at this point, but how can I do that with a house? :) Start buying bricks one by one? :))
ReplyDeleteAmbac rehab plan approved by Wisconsin court (ABKFQ) by Alistair Barr
ReplyDeleteSAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A rehabilitation plan proposed by the regulator of Ambac Financial Group's (ABKFQ) main bond insurance subsidiary was approved by a Wisconsin Circuit Court on Tuesday. Ambac shares jumped 53% to 19 cents in afternoon trading on Tuesday. The holding company filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors last year. A spokesman for the company confirmed the Wisconsin court decision on Tuesday.
David - In regards to your above question, I still think buying SPF...scaling in on a longer term basis, will reap great rewards 10 years out. Do you have that time horizon? Probably not. I don't.
ReplyDeleteThis volatility today has been great for trading. I'm about to go long again for a trade.
Long SPY Jan 28 $126 Calls at $2.536 avg.
ReplyDeleteWow, copper is off 0.12 (-2.83%)
ReplyDeletemore SPY calls at $2.44. avg is 2.51.
ReplyDeleteYikes. I work for a few minutes and we are at a new bottom. WTF are you guys going? Stay on top of it!
ReplyDeleteTook UNG off on the mini spike into the close. I don't want to be holding anything long. The market is cooked.
ReplyDeletei think people are going to be covering shorts into the close. too much risk and the markets are in a clear uptrend. that's why i'm buying ITM calls
ReplyDeletemy window of time is intraday though...so take it for what its worth.
ReplyDeletebtw - GS looks like it's a good buy for a rebound.
Long small amount of LNG at $6.32. Could it get a play on renewable energy/alt energy/nat gas b/c of the state of the union address?
ReplyDeleteTook ABKFQ off the table after a little run-up. Should pay for the plane ticket:)
ReplyDeleteSLW with a 28 handle -- that's what I've been waiting for! Also, I have just remembered one great advantage of SLW over ECU.TO -- it has options! So I just sold 2 March $28 puts on SLW for $1.80 each, so as to start scaling into SLW at $26.20. If SLW drops another $1, I'll sell some $27 puts, etc.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if the Q's can finish around 55.70 which would complete a wtf is happening? pattern.
ReplyDeletei'd be very careful being short here.
ReplyDeleteSold DOG and SDS. I see lots of reversal bars on the daily.
ReplyDeleteSLW looks like it really wants to get in the 27's. Nice VWAP area.
ReplyDeleteLittle bit of money coming into GMO.
ReplyDeleteCrap...I got to go. That's OK though. If I can get a signature today I'll make far more money than what I could scalp into the close :)...Ciao!
ReplyDeleteSold 1/3 of SPY calls at $2.73
ReplyDeletePicked up SHZ 6.21
ReplyDeleteTeam I did that before the OIL spill address. Hope it works out better for you. Maybe he will actually say the word Nat Gas this time.
ReplyDeletesold 1/2 of SPY calls at $2.88
ReplyDeleteCompletely out of my SPY calls at $3.02.
ReplyDeleteLate post- Opened BAC @ 13.46 earlier...check the Insider Transactions section on Yahoo...
ReplyDeleteScaling into GDXJ little by little into the close.
ReplyDeleteHL and RBY look good too. I'll stick w/ the diversified GDXJ after a 25% decline...
ReplyDeleteJesse, thanks for pointing out GDXJ! Unlike SLW, which is still much higher than its level in mid-September, GDXJ is already back to where it was in mid-September. So I just sold 2 March $33 puts on GDXJ at $2 each.
ReplyDeleteBought back into 3 GOOG $610 Calls that expire on Friday for $10.90 avg. Man...this day was awesome for trading. So much for not trading anymore.
ReplyDeleteIt is hard to believe that after such a volatile day, both VIX and VXX finished in the red -- don't the volatility traders realize that this this increased volatility in a flat market after a huge run up is always a sign of a market top?
ReplyDeleteGDXJ closes at high of day on big volume w/ a big time hammer reversal bar to boot.
ReplyDeleteCan I say what a trading day?
Life is Good :)
Textbook. Could be good for a 10% move
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdxj
Long 500 shs JNPR at 34.3
ReplyDeleteLong 300 more shs JNPR at $34.1
ReplyDeleteJesse - GDXJ looks like it wants to go to the 200DMA. However, there appears to be a Kangaroo tail Reversal on the chart. Only issue is the volume spike wasn't all that big.
ReplyDeleteSetting sell limit on JNPR at $34.90...sorry for bombarding the message board today. It's just been one of the better tradeable days I've seen in a long long while.
ReplyDeleteAs bearish as the indicators are, a guy I follow (who has picked pretty much every multi-bagger over the past 2 years) sees the semiconductor etf SOXL TRIPLING over the next 6 months.
ReplyDeleteI've been looking for semiconductor setups, but haven't found any yet. Here's a great article on potential plays:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/248113-needham-conference-notes-on-semiconductors-other-hardware-and-cloud-computing-companies
OK, let's see what kind of a rebound we can get in GDXJ now. I just placed a buy stop limit order on GDXJ for 4% of my portfolio at $33.55/$33.60
ReplyDeleteI kind of wish I picked up a whole lot more of GDXJ on margin. Its a pretty straightforward trade. W/ the reversal bar, put a stop around 33ish for minimal downside. Upside would be 36-38 in the short term.
ReplyDeleteIf its true to form, it should gap up a little and go straight up for a few weeks.
All of that w/ a nice stop loss in place for minimal damage if the trading gods are wrong in their signals.
Did we win?
ReplyDeleteSold my shares of JNPR at $34.55 just now. Probably sold too early but oh well..
ReplyDeleteon weekly chart $29ish is the support line for GDXJ.
ReplyDeleteTOF- If GDXJ heads down to support, the bugs over at the Cara board will be in a world of hurt like no other. Gotta love buying setups. Gotta love stops even more:)
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm probably going to wait until people are screaming before buying those miners.
ReplyDeleteJust noticed that RAS has now closed at 2.76. I don't know exactly what that means but I do have a feeling it is getting ready to move much higher.
FD: Still long a very large position in the stock.
SLW - Sure looks like a buy here to me... and look how far it's dropped, could really make some coin if things turn around. Incredible, there must be some reason for this price but I can't figure out what it is...
ReplyDeleteGovernment inflicted simulation? Let's hope not b/c if so, it's pretty troubling...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteI'm still standing but with flash burns on my face from the early AM fire sale on RBY, UXG and GLD. Nice that the hose guys got it under control in the last hour or so. I would hate to cut and run on those three since they they are long term holdings and part of a resolution to try to hang in longer.
ReplyDelete