Tuesday, January 25, 2011
1/25/11 Under My Thumb
The following trades were made under my thumb- executed with a Fido app on a Droid.
Re: Opening SLW @ 29.12>OFF 29.8x>ON 29.1x>OFF 29.2x
Submitted by 2nd_ave (5172 comments) on Tue, 01/25/2011 - 18:53 #78345 (in reply to #78320)
I hesitated before posting the follow-up trades, as I generally pride myself on making real-time comments when logging trades. But I'd be lying if I left out the updates.
I sold my opening position in two allotments (29.83 and 29.77, for an average of 29.805) during a break at work. I reentered during lunch @ an average of 29.18, then unloaded the second position @ an average of 29.28 after hours.
Just booking profits when I have them- no opinion whatsoever on where prices go from here.
BAC- opened/closed 13.46/13.61 (after hours)
Submitted by 2nd_ave (5172 comments) on Tue, 01/25/2011 - 18:55 #78346
Ditto for this intraday trade. The trades were executed, but I was unable to post them in real time.
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+0.27% gain for the port today.
ReplyDelete2nd - Nice trades.
ReplyDeleteRobear - I didn't mention it earlier, but I decided to take a small loss on my LNG shares...I presume there will be a better entry...hopefully at a panic selloff.
"SLW - Sure looks like a buy here to me... and look how far it's dropped, could really make some coin if things turn around. Incredible, there must be some reason for this price but I can't figure out what it is..."
ReplyDeleteCP: the reason for this price is simple -- check out the SLV chart. I am afraid SLV is set to fall to $24, which will bring SLW to around $24 as well.
In case we get a nice gap up tomorrow, I just bought 200 shares of GDXJ at $33.31 and placed a sell limit order for them at $34.31.
ReplyDeleteAlso, in case tomorrow's gap up gets reversed quickly, I just placed a buy stop limit order for 100 shares of VXX at $31.25/$31.30.
ReplyDeleteI am getting a sense that we're going to rip higher yet again. Possibly a final thrust higher before the long awaited correction...
ReplyDeleteI could see the possible scenario playing out:
ReplyDeleteState of Union + Fed announcing economy is strengthening but that they plan on going through with QE as planned. GDP comes out on Friday and prints +4% and market gaps up to 1,320 and 12,200 with investing public rushing to buy. Then market tanks immediately and sells off to 1,240-1,250...and it then trades sideways for the next 6-8 weeks before going higher...unless of course the inflation bug hits harder than expected.
Let's see whether I can successfully get shaken out of my Feb $129 puts on FCX that I bought at $14.75: I have just raised my sell stop order on them to $19/$18.75.
ReplyDeleteI left a comment on the old post after the new one was posted. That's what happens when you get a tel call in the middle of composing a post and when you finally hit submit you find out you are all alone on that page. Anyway, here it is:
ReplyDelete"I'm still standing but with flash burns on my face from the early AM fire sale on RBY, UXG and GLD. Nice that the hose guys got it under control in the last hour or so. I would hate to cut and run on those three since they they are long term holdings and part of a resolution to try to hang in longer."
January 25, 2011 4:38 PM
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- RAIT Financial Trust (NYSE: RAS) announced that on January 25, 2011, RAIT’s Board of Trustees declared a first quarter 2011 cash dividend of $0.484375 per share on RAIT’s 7.75% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, $0.5234375 per share on RAIT’s 8.375% Series B Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares and $0.5546875 per share on RAIT’s 8.875% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares. The dividends will be paid on March 31, 2011 to holders of record on March 1, 2011.
ReplyDeleteIllini- I was 'this' close to joining you in UXG.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41258660
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm becoming more and more convinced that RAS is going to be an unbelievable long term hold. As in multi-bagger with lots of dividends.
ReplyDeleteGood chance we break out one way or the other tomorrow. I can honestly say I'm leaning neither long nor short (in terms of a take).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-bearish-are-those-daily-divergences-2011-01-25
ReplyDeleteAfter years of listening to comments about 'bearish divergences,' it's refreshing to hear Hulbert's take on the importance of those divergences.
Many years ago, when I was 'Skyping' with traders like EEMTrader, it used to drive me nuts to see 'bearish divergence.' It would generally have as much impact on price movement as 'overcast with patches of sun.'
ReplyDeletevb, David, and Mark- We're in the vicinity of the 1-year anniversary of the first face-to-face of the 'TTistas.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I hope so. I spent a TON of time looking this one over during the last down draft. Frankly, it's still priced for a potential BK. As I've posted here a lot of times, way back 2 years ago, X+3B never though Commercial RE was the next shoe to drop. I'm about loaded up as much as I can without being reckless. Maybe another 10K shares if something really seems out of whack. I will protect my gains though. They're substantial.
ReplyDeleteMan, they won't leave Cutler alone.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Just keeps on walking up...
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, I'm blogging rather than listening to Obama.
ReplyDelete2nd- Man, it seems like yesterday. Time to round everyone up again.
ReplyDeleteThat's because he's not on yet :)
ReplyDeleteMark - Yeah we need to be careful to protect gains on this (RAS) if we can. While it's nice to think of the upside, the downside could be nasty. But I have to imagine that them restarting a div means they are a lot better off than people think. I find it hard to believe the market is pricing the stock at 0.30 times book value when a company like NCT has significant negative book value and others that are much worse off are trading at higher multiples. Maybe the market knows something we don't...if that's the case, we're sitting at a good buy in price right now so if we took a big hit and stopped out it would probably be at breakeven.
ReplyDeleteI didnt realize the FTSE is only 12% off all time highs. if we were we would be at 1,380.
ReplyDeleteNYT site has a pretty good set up for viewing/listening.
ReplyDeleteHigh-speed rail is on the agenda.
ReplyDeleteNatty!!!!
ReplyDeleteDid you guys catch the lady in the red dress that was asleep! :)))
ReplyDeleteThere is an emphasis on clean energy, 80% by 2015. Not going to happen as long as big oil is still around. Remember the hydrogen car in GW's State of Union.
ReplyDeleteBy 2025. At least he is smart enough to put it off to when no one will remember it.
ReplyDeleteOK, it's been an hour. I'm going to sit next to the charming lady in the red dress...
ReplyDeleteIllini- I'm sorry, what am I supposed to remember?
ReplyDeleteThe fuel cell, hydrogen powered auto for the whole country, at least gov spending towards that goal. It must have lasted for 2-3 years and there were some demo cars. Then nothing. Did not work out I guess. Big oil killed it, I am pretty sure.
ReplyDeleteClean energy - All the crew's been snortin' the dilithium crystals. Did you see Chu hanging his head down? He didn't look very excited to me.
ReplyDeleteCoal - I suppose it depends on how you define clean, nuclear comes closest IMO, but I still wonder about how carbon neutral that one really is.
Anyway, the two most abundant elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity, neither of which are viable solutions.
We need a breakthrough game changing technology, I don't think it's here yet but it'll be something along the lines of cold fusion.
Market will be flat all morning until the guy that really runs things makes an announcement at 2:00 and it is still likely to remain flat afterwards.
ReplyDeleteQuestion to the board why is everyone in love with this RBY stock?
Just glancing through the speech. I think most of the focus will be on the second half of the speech which starts out ==> "Now, the final step — a critical step — in winning the future is to make sure we aren't buried under a mountain of debt..."
ReplyDeleteThe Address must have put most of the Caristas asleep. Mark, me and CP are here on this blog but I am retiring. Good Night.
ReplyDeleteMark, I see he at least mentioned natty. I bet he was clearing his throat when he said it to.
ReplyDeleteRBY: With its gold finds and ownership of property in Ontario near other big mines/miners, it will likely be bought out.
ReplyDeleteI didn't hear Obama mention natty, maybe he cleared his throat or maybe he mentioned it first and I was half asleep. I did hear him mention nuclear and coal.
ReplyDeleteBeaner put on a huge frown when Obama said the wealthy don't need a tax break.
port- The problem is he also said clean coal. Give me a break. MOG is firmly in the camp there will be NO help from the Gov. when it comes to Natty. We're on our own my friend...And I'm OK with that. Any REAL LT solution will come from the private sector. F the Gov. They RUIN industries, not help them.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow morning I'm selling everything and putting it into CLNE!! :))
Illini- I can be bought out for a price :)
ReplyDeleteI do think Obama knocked the ball deep into the opponents court though. Further gridlock is what I'm anticipating, and everything that comes with it. This ought to pump Tim's T's.
ReplyDeleteWonder how long uncle Ben can keep his game rolling?
Mark - How do you do it, I can't give mine away!
ReplyDelete"When you have an 80 percent move off the bottom as we did ... it always has resulted in a long-term market because quite frankly so many people miss so much of it and they have to try and catch up," Biryini said.
ReplyDeleteThis quote sums up everything about how the markets work and I think Birinyi is right. Long term, this market is going higher in large part because most people missed out not once (March 09-April 10) but they missed out twice (Sept 10 to current) and will be providing support for the markets for a long time to come. You can see it by the lack of pullbacks in the market in the latest runup. Obviously there will be pullbacks, but I highly doubt we'll see another Flash Crash in this bull market. And I highly doubt we will see a 10% correction for another year or more.
After today's crazy day, I'd like to take a day or two off to enjoy the great NW. I just noticed that I got HL filled AH at 8.41.
ReplyDeleteJust set market stops for GDXJ @33.74, SHZ 5.70's, and HL @8.21.
Tried also to put limit orders on the upside in SHZ @7.47, but the system won't let me place limits on the upside and downside. hmmmm
up early, ha, ha, for SAP earnings release, the orcl vedict killed the results and it looks like they only accrued a portion of the award in fy10, and they raised the divi. first con call is at 1 a.m....will need to pretend I'm a member of the press.."JB from Trading Topic worldwide"
ReplyDeleteI see that both gold and futures are up right now, so I decided to move my sell limit order on GDXJ to $35.31 for the 200 shares I picked up AH today at $33.31.
ReplyDelete"the system won't let me place limits on the upside and downside."
ReplyDeleteNow you're catching on. ;)
Doesn't look like last nights show did anything for natty or the buck but the SPX futures continue to respond to artificial life support.
ReplyDeleteWe're going down today.
ReplyDelete2nd - i think we initially sell off but i think we ultimately end over 12,000 and 1,300 today or tomorrow, then gap up on friday's GDP print to 12,200 and 1,320, then we sell off. i don't think we're ready to do that here.
ReplyDeleteGoing Down, Bro' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5173 comments) on Wed, 01/26/2011 - 09:29 #78362
ReplyDeleteThat's the word on the street. 'Bama had his chance to tell us what we needed to hear, but he chose instead to recycle the same old same old. I don't think J6P buys it.
CLNE is dragging along a bottom of 12.92 this morn.
ReplyDeleteOpening VXX @ 30.526 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5174 comments) on Wed, 01/26/2011 - 10:17 #78368
ReplyDeleteBet is the opening rally fizzles out.
CLNE- Yeah, I just sit here and watch it each day. I kinda thought the pop a few days ago might be something, but alas....not. PXP is a happy pappy today.
ReplyDelete2nd- I'd hedge the same way, but I just can't get myself to buy VXX. FMOC is usually a 5 step dance. Run up early, sell off into announcement, pop on no new news, sell off, rally into the close.
ReplyDeleteMan, this headache I've had for a few days now just won't subside. I'm gonna go lay down...
ReplyDeleteRBY - I think I should be going all in on this one today.
ReplyDeleteLong BGZ at $8
ReplyDeleteRe: Opening VXX @ 30.526/ OFF 30.70, TZA on 14.92/OFF 15.12 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5175 comments) on Wed, 01/26/2011 - 11:46 #78373 (in reply to #78368)
ReplyDeleteJust playing Billy ball.
sold my BGZ at $8
ReplyDeleteAdded 2,500 shs to RAS at $2.73
ReplyDeleteI recently read the following article about MUNI bonds.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/247860-nuveen-premium-income-municipal-fund-2-a-good-core-holding?source=qp_investment_views
The guy does a good job of explaining how to evaluate the closed end MUNI bond fund.
MUNI's got a lot of bad press lately and are trading close to 52 week lows while providing an attractive tax advantage return (about 8%).
I think they are probably oversold at this point (someone might have paid good money for all that bad press -))
I opened a 50% position in NPM this morning at 12.82.
Sold GDXJ, HL, SHZ for 2,3,1% respectively.
ReplyDeleteGetting nervous ahead of fed.
Will re-visit SHZ at the close.
All cash.
Jesse - I say we see a breakout here to the 1,320 levels by Friday...then we take a 5% dip...very short and sweet and then it's back off to the races. I'm very cognizant of the perception that people missed not only the first rally from March 2009 but also the 2nd rally from Summer 2010 and this will continue to support bids in the market for a while now as psychology suggests that people are itching to get back in on any dip, knowing they have missed two big rallies.
ReplyDeletethe market is after all human emotions.
ReplyDeleteWhen will I ever learn??? The expected events always happen as expected! The market ALWAYS reacts positively to any official speeches, such as President's speeches, those by G7, by G20, bu the Fed, etc. Should have closed my shorts yesterday and reloaded them today for a quick and sure trade...
ReplyDeleteAnd now, seeing the large drop in VXX, the only thing left for me is to buy 100 more shares now, which I just did at $30.28 and placed a sell limit at $31.28.
Also, seeing that gold/silver just had a nice intraday rally that seems to have stopped, I just sold at $34.24 the 300 shares of GDXJ I purchased this morning at $33.55 when the buy stop order I placed last night was triggered. As for the 200 shares of GDXJ that I picked up yesterday AH, I decided to keep them a little while longer and placed a sell stop limit order on them at $33.50/$33.40.
ReplyDeleteFinally, seeing that CALM has returned to the level where I bought it, I decided to close my position, since there was no quick short-term rebound after the steep drop from $34 to $29. I heard forecasts that now we'll have bad weather for the next year as well, and so the chicken farms will be under a constant pressure from rising crop prices.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the latest CBO forecasts:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41276533/ns/politics-capitol_hill/
There is no end to budget deficit and it will keep forcing US to stay on its recent money-printing course so as to keep funding the federal spending by having the Fed buying the new Treasuries. All we need to do as investors is to "stay on the path" as they say in the East, and our path is the "yellow brick road." And pullbacks in PMs like we are having now are amazing buying opportunities.
added to my PIP position @ $3.22 and take a look at yhoo, has to be a takeover target - not sure if anyone listened to their earnings call yesterday but I thought it was embarrassing. I expect that they will try to spin off non-core biz, and pray for a decent bid.
ReplyDeleteHow many catalysts remain? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5176 comments) on Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:38 #78389
ReplyDeleteDriver(s) for this rally have to be wearing thin.
GDXJ just had another nice intraday leg up, and so I just moved up my stop to $34/$33.75 for the 200 shares I purchased yesterday at $33.31.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that I got stopped out of my 2 FCX Feb $129 puts at $18.85, which I purchased at $14.75.
ReplyDeleteSLW had a nice rally today, and so I decided to cover at $1.12 the two puts I sold on SLW yesterday at $1.80. What concerns be about holding SLW is that SLV has not dropped to its early October level yet, while GLD did drop there already. Thus, I think GDXJ is a lower risk play right now than SLW.
ReplyDeleteRJA and DBA are on the watch list, will pick 'em up when we get the 5%-10% correction in equities.
ReplyDeleteLong SPY 50 x $131 Jan 28 Puts at $1.27 just in case we get a pullback now that we hit the 12,000 and 1,300 targets.
ReplyDeleteI just placed a buy stop limit order for 100 shares of VXX at $30.50/$30.55.
ReplyDeleteI was just about to open up a short position before the close, but want to see a short setup in semis before I do anything. Glad I didn't (see below). If VIX doesn't head up very soon (like tomorrow), its next support is its lower trendline around 12.50.
ReplyDeleteQCOM reports:
Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.77-0.81 vs. $0.68 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q2 revs of $3.45-3.75 bln vs. $3.12 bln Thomson Reuters consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $2.91-3.05 vs. $2.78 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees FY11 revs of $13.6-14.2 bln vs. $12.78 bln
Also, I just placed a buy stop limit order on 500 shares of TWM at $12.35/$12.40.
ReplyDeletei wonder if dip in SBUX will be bought. guided below estimates going forward.
ReplyDeleteAlso, looking at the FCX chart, if it breaks below $108 tomorrow, that would likely mean that the recent rally was just a short-covering rally and it is destined to have another leg down. So I just placed a sell short stop limit order on 200 shares of FCX at $107.95/$107.90
ReplyDeletePut on a large position in BGZ at the close at $7.98. I think the market has hit its target now and will fall back.
ReplyDeleteI decided to follow TOF here and just bought 1000 shares of TWM at $12.18 and placed a sell stop order for these shares at $11.98. A $200 loss if stopped out is something I can easily live with, but the potential upside can be large if the recent market rebound was successful in scaring the new shorts out of their positions and forcing the completely disheartened existing shorts to finally cover their positions (after seeing that the market doesn't want to drop even when it SHOULD drop, which is how I feel right now).
ReplyDeleteJesse/Mark - I just sent you guys an email. I looked at the S&P vs. the VIX now as compared to April 2010 and it is almost identical. I believe David mentioned this a while ago...it's hard to practice because the urge to beat the market and make a trade tends to cause you to force trades rather than waiting for the correct setup. Anyway, the S&P both times made an initial high with a spike down in the VIX...it then immediately pulled back, sucking in short sellers. Then it reversed and made new highs (yet the VIX never made new lows) and basically crushed the hopes of the newcomer short sellers. The same exact thing happened here in January. Obviously we know the result back in April. I'm not saying we get the same, but I understand the emotional reason behind there now being a pullback...and it's all emotions.
ReplyDeleteAdd to this that the market just hit nice round numbers in 12,000 and 1,300 and there is another psychological reason for a pullback: taking profits.
ReplyDelete"How many catalysts remain?"....Earnings? NFLX crushed man. Way more impressive to me than QCOM. 3M new subscribers in 4 months? That's wild.
ReplyDeleteThe action in WTIC was interesting also. Real crappy storage data and it rallies, with the drillers leading the way. (BXEP +5.28%). If the correction in crude is over, watch out.
T3D's MDW broke out today big time.
ReplyDeleteMDW up 14.74%, RBY 8.3%, UXG 8.25, CGR & CDY, 7.14. A very good day for exploration miners. In the seniors, only HC (Hecla) and SLW came close. I took small profits on portions of RBY and UXG just to reduce exposure (but still hold shares at a loss).
ReplyDelete