Wednesday, January 26, 2011
1/26/11 Doctor My Eyes
I have done all that I could
To see the evil and the good without hiding
You must help me if you can
Doctor, my eyes
Tell me what is wrong
Was I unwise to leave them open for so long
'Cause I have wandered through this world
And as each moment has unfurled
I've been waiting to awaken from these dreams
People go just where they will
I never noticed them until I got this feeling
That it's later than it seems
It's definitely later than it seems for this rally, IMHO. No long positions open at this time. Picked up a flyer in TZA after hours @ 14.86.
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Once again my timing was perfect to be a lame duck poster on previous page. So here it is:
ReplyDeleteMDW up 14.74%, RBY 8.3%, UXG 8.25, CGR & CDY, 7.14. A very good day for exploration miners. In the seniors, only HC (Hecla) and SLW came close. I took small profits on portions of RBY and UXG just to reduce exposure (but still hold shares at a loss).
January 26, 2011 4:57 PM
RBY/SLW- coulda/shoulda.
ReplyDeleteShanghai drops -1%.
ReplyDeleteAs time passes, the premium I can pocket from selling the February WATG $7.50 covered calls will go down. So I have just reduced my sell limit order from $0.6 to $0.5 for the 10 covered calls I wanted to sell.
ReplyDeleteEven though Shanghai is down now, the spot copper price and Russell 2000 futures are up, which suggests that the risk trade has not reversed yet. We may have to wait until the morning for the risk aversion to hit US. :)
ReplyDeleteRe Grantham- Why can't I make a name for myself being wrong 90% of the time?
ReplyDeleteDavid- I don't think equities and metals necessarily move in tandem. There was a time when risk aversion meant a rush to the safety of gold.
ReplyDeleteI still think we go DOWN. Maybe I'm off by a day, or a few days. But we're going down.
ReplyDeleteweird my posts aren't getting staying up
ReplyDeleteerr...staying up that is.
ReplyDeleteShanghai has now cut its opening losses by half.
ReplyDeleteDavid- You could be right. HK opens -0.5%, now about to go green.
ReplyDeleteRe Grantham - I am under the impression, right or wrong, that he has a VG track record as a money manager going way back. No? I only read his stuff beginning 2-3 years ago. One thing I remember is a chart he showed---price of home over annual income for a worker. It predicted the bust of 2008. BTW, that chart is back near normal now.
ReplyDeleteIllini - GMO was one of my clients at one time a couple of years ago. They're performance is very good.
ReplyDeleteI was an early Netflix subscriber and still am, at a low level. I remember an IBD article swearing that their business model was flawed. I have never owned it but wish I had. Should have taken a clue when my son started streaming for his family a couple years ago. I remain stuck in snail mail DVD, not even BlueRay.
ReplyDeleteThanks TF. Kind of confirms what I have read and my own sense of what he writes. Track records are important, until they go belly up. Timing is the other element and a tough one.
ReplyDeleteMan...looking at all of the highfliers over the past 6 months and I see pretty much the same pattern...blowoff top with sharp correction thereafter and then an immediate attempt to get back to those highs...most of them have been unsuccessful, like MOS, MON, FCX, AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, NFLX, CRM, CMG, FFIV, IYT. Interesting that this hasn't spilled over into the SPY at all really.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Man, you gave me so much material in those posts...Too easy, I'll let it go :)
ReplyDeletethat's what i'm hear for mark. setting them up so you can knock it down.
ReplyDeleteTOF- BTW, our beloved RAS is in a pickle here. Sellers lined up @ 2.78ish and buyers lined up @ 2.70ish. Who gives up first? If we lose 2.70 those buyers will become sellers and the gig is up in the short run. Good battle. I'm afraid though, the sellers usually win this round.
ReplyDeleteMark - Yeah, I hear you on RAS. If the market falls like everyone says it will then RAS is going to give up its gains.
ReplyDelete"David- I don't think equities and metals necessarily move in tandem. There was a time when risk aversion meant a rush to the safety of gold."
ReplyDeleteGold -- yes, but not copper. Copper had a correlation close to 1 with S&P as far as I remember.
David - if the correlation between Copper and S&P was close the S&P would have pulled back at least a little bit already. Not such move.
ReplyDeleteby the way, what is the deal with the Baltic Dry Index?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
TOF- I gave up on the BDI years ago. I've never found any sort of correlation I wanted to trade off of. But that's just me.
ReplyDeleteI think 1.5T will slowly start to sink in.
ReplyDeleteYou know, we all try to play high beta stocks for the obvious reasons. Take a look at CVX. 66 to 94. Friggin MOG owns close to half that Co. Just kidding of course, but you get my drift.
ReplyDeleteI'm really glad my last name isn't Weiner.
ReplyDeleteGLD--Hard to tell if a h&s or a triple top. Not good irregardless I suppose for the short term.
ReplyDeleteMark - 1.5T > Are you talking about the deficit? If so, it's crazy how forgiving the bond markets are toward our country. Thank God for that.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep. It's going to take a toll sooner or later.
ReplyDeleteJust to make sure I cement my position as the only juvenile delinquent here...I give you Dick Swett via Jon Stewart...
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-february-4-2010/the-dick-swett-incident
See you cats at the scratch.
"David - if the correlation between Copper and S&P was close the S&P would have pulled back at least a little bit already. Not such move."
ReplyDeleteThe correlation between S&P and copper WAS close to 1. I am not sure what is happening now, but my interpretation is that it is something close to summer 2008, when commodities collapsed first and then S&P topped out a few weeks later. Bill has also frequently mentioned that gold is the last one to leave the dance floor, and gold has obviously already left the dance floor.
Colin Twiggs: 'Gold Finds Support' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5178 comments) on Thu, 01/27/2011 - 07:06 #78416
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/54qccl
Mark- You're one of the few who could actually take a last name like Weiner and carry it well.
ReplyDeleteIMO one of the most important things to watch today is the action in CAT...if it acts like AAPL did after earnings then the market is going to pull back.
ReplyDeleteSold the TZA just now @ 14.94. Back to 100% cash.
ReplyDeletethere goes CAT...holding on to my shorts/puts.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more BGZ at $7.92 just now.
ReplyDeleteSold the RAS at $2.73 that I picked up yesterday at $2.72
Mark - I sold 2/3 of my RAS at $2.72. I'm making a broad market call...this just doesn't feel right being long anymore. I think we pull back hard, sharp, and fast.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm completely out of RAS at $2.72. I just don't feel comfortable being long anything anymore.
ReplyDeleteShort FCX at $109.50.
ReplyDeleteFTK doing well. I wonder if FF hung on.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks for the heads up!
MDW- T3D is mixing the Mai Tai!
ReplyDeleteTeam why all the negativity? wHAT IS YOUR BAT RADAR TELLING YOU.
ReplyDeleteLooks like RAS is spiking on news that I sold. I'm sure I'll have sellers remorse soon enough. I sold 60k shs at $2.72 in multiple lots yet the bid never moved.
ReplyDeleteMark BEXP is in sell the news mode. I like this company why is this stock not flying right now.
ReplyDeleterb- My take is that there is NO REASON to risk capital right now. We've rallied long and hard since August 31- what's the point of trying to game it any further? Wait for better entries.
ReplyDeleteMiners selling off hard right now.
ReplyDeleteBDI - You've at least got to account for the flood of new ships on that one.
ReplyDeleteRoBear...A few things:
ReplyDelete(1) I'm reading a lot about higher commodity prices and how they're hitting margins. Look at SBUX and PG just in the past day. This hit NKE I believe and has been hitting a lot of food makers. Margins are at all time highs so probably not going to go much higher.
(2) A lot of leader stocks are just not performing as well as the market is...it seems like the market is going up more on index buying than real leadership movements across the board.
(3) The market usually takes breathers are major milestone levels...12k and 1,300 seem like reasonable areas for this to happen.
(4) It's hard to find someone bearish on the economy.
(5) Debt levels for our govt are too high so if they cut spending significantly this will hurt earnings. If they don't we risk a debt downgrade/warning which could cap gains in the markets.
I don't know. I just don't feel comfortable holding stocks here after this crazy run.
The risk is that we're clearly in an uptrend and there are too many people calling for a pullback.
SHeeZa movin' on up
ReplyDeleteBy my account, metals have been in trouble for nearly two months now. I'm gonna wait until Chinese New Year is over before making any further decisions.
ReplyDeleteMDW - Wow!
S+P upper monthly bolinger band is at 1282. My chart goes back to 1995. Outside of one instance in 1997, this is the furthest the S+P has ever been above its upper bolinger band.
ReplyDeleteIn '97, the S+P closed right near the high of the month then lost 7% the next month and was down over 11% w/in 3 months.
If the market can close the month strong, I'm going all in on the short side expecting a monster correction that has absolutely nothing to do with earnings (or how rosy they are). All options on the table- puts, VXX, triple inverses etc..
RB- BEXP. Kinda looks like it hun? Let's see what happens at the end of the day. This is a MOG top pick and it just got upgraded to a buy with a PT of 36 by some pin head.
ReplyDeleteGL players!
ReplyDeleteMark - who you calling hun? Does your wife know about this?
ReplyDeleteFCX is officially spent.
ReplyDeleteBTW - It's a huge lie that no one saw the financial collapse coming, I saw it coming and I'm as blind as a bat.
ReplyDeleteIt was easy to spot though, with homes financed @ 110% to buyers who couldn't make the interest payment let-alone their SUV payment. All while jobs and wealth were purposely and consciously being exported to emerging countries.
No brainer!
FCX is the bellweather, watch out if the 150DMA fails...
ReplyDeleteGDX and SLW at the lows of the day, and falling.
ReplyDeleteGold - Down $20. Such a strange animal, who in the world can put their faith in something that can't even be measured by the market?
ReplyDeleteHey Babe! ON BEXP Overall oil patch weakness might be the cause. See why Mog likes them. A domestic oiler that is increasing production.
ReplyDeleteSLW back to a 29-handle.
ReplyDeleteJust picked up a little DXD to ensure that the decline doesn't start for another couple of days. It should work like magic. I'm seeing most if not all inverse etf's setting up reversal patterns.
ReplyDeleteI'm loving XLE short and ERY long. XLE's rsi is above 78 on the weekly.
"Manufacturing Profits Suggest Stronger Economy"
ReplyDeleteand gold jumps off a cliff.
Damn- Everything on my screen (with the exception of the ultrashorts) is now red.
ReplyDeleteSMH/XLF are green.
ReplyDeleteLIWA - Green
ReplyDeleteCADC - Green
I sent out an email to some friends and family on January 14th titled "2 to 4 weeks". Looking at prior instances, that's the time it takes the market to start dropping substantially after a spike bottom in the put call ratio of .59 or below. It closed at .57 that day.
ReplyDeleteIt stands at 1.22 today.
Copper - Green (+1.87%)
ReplyDelete"start dropping substantially"
ReplyDeleteAre you one of those calling for sub 666?
HL looks like a decent entry at 8.66 here
ReplyDeleteI'm ready for $5 copper, come on baby!
ReplyDeleteGold - Whats'a matta with you???
Miners and metals got too far ahead of themselves:
ReplyDeleteAugust 2, 2010
CRB 274.71
S&P 500 1125.86
FCX $74.8/sh
Yesterday, January 26, 2011
CRB 333.83 up 21.2%
S&P 500 1296.63 up 15.2%
FCX $110.32/sh up 47.5%
BAC - Green
ReplyDeleteCP- No 666 this year. If things get bad, I would expect 1000 to be support.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking over sentiment readings today. AAII bullish #'s have dropped quite a bit. That along w/ the Cara commentary today about "Everyone expecting a drop" would lead me to believe that if we see a drop, we still need to go higher. The S+P still needs to visit 1303. Perhaps even 2nd's Super Bowl 1320.
And the longer the S+P meanders around 1300, the more time individual investors have to enter short positions at "the top". And we know that individual investors can't win in this game. So, perhaps a dramatic (but brief) spike higher first? GDP news tomorrow. 1320? This would destroy all of my inverse etf "setups", but that's how the game is played.
ReplyDeleteAlso, ideally, we'd like to see the old Russell test its previous top. Yesterday's strong bar bought it some time.
ReplyDeleteLong LVS at $46.05.
ReplyDeleteClosed my BGZ at breakeven and my FCX short at $107.7
Picking up UNG 5.94. these natty etfs are on their lower bb...
ReplyDeleteman...look at how strong this market is. I think Jesse is right...S&P needs to do a spike higher before going lower. 1,300 looks like it's toast today.
ReplyDeleteLVS looks like it wants to break out above resistance around $46.4
ReplyDeleteLoaded the boat on LVS at $46.6
ReplyDeleteSold UNG for -.03. Its time to go to the penny arcade. If they are gonna give this market a blow-off top, they are gonna run the pennies in the process.
ReplyDeletePicking up ABKFQ .169. It hit .27 and change just yesterday.
jesse - playing a bankrupt company huh? i thought i was crazy buying spongetech back in june 2009.
ReplyDeleteActually both companies are bankrupt so its a wash. Although mine managed to get indicted by the SEC while yours just didn't know how to run a business.
ReplyDeleteMOMO hitting 10wma on weekly chart this week:
ReplyDelete(They're still working)
LULU
FTNT
MCP
WEBM
WLT
TZOO
PANL
ARTW
OPEN
PCLN
MOMO to watch:
UTEK
NVLS
Is there such a thing as an etf for defense contractors? These seems to be in rally mode since Obama's speech, even though if the US were going to make spending cuts one might think military would be on the list?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Ahhh spongetech:) I remember some of the Caristas getting involved in that a couple of years ago. My friend got intimately involved in the company, threatened to turn them into the SEC, got paid off by them big time, then the SEC came after my friend for receiving phony stock certificates, then the attention turned to Sponge.
ReplyDeleteI was getting daily updates on the shenanigans of Spongetech for about a year before the $*%& hit the fan.
They even wanted me to open up a Sponge retail store in Georgia! Man, I have some crazy stories about that company.
PPA/ITA - Yes, it appears military contractors are considerably more profitable than the civilian middle class...
ReplyDeleteIt appears Washington DC sure does have some mixed up priorities...
Wow, another -$31 day for gold. Wonder where it'll be by next Thursday?
ReplyDeleteTOF- OK, now I see how it is. Fine.
ReplyDeleteRB- Just ignore them. They're jealous. BTW, I am SO happy with my Pajama Jeans I had a pair sent to you. Still wearing 66"x28" right?
Man, that was an ugly candle just now.
ReplyDeleteneato do they have the button fly :)
ReplyDeleteIf SLW can't hold S1 here, it could run right down to S2 @ 28.36.
ReplyDeleteNo, it's Velcro. So much easier on the nails.
ReplyDeleteCP- I see POG only "only" down 18.
ReplyDeleteMark POG is $1315, down $30 according to Kitco's spot price.
ReplyDeleteHey hun, are those available in extra small 72"x23"?
CP- Must be a closing price issue. I have the same spot.
ReplyDeleteYep, order in and they're on the way! BFE...
TZA/VXX @ 14.68/29.62 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5181 comments) on Thu, 01/27/2011 - 14:47 #78463
ReplyDeleteProbably just throwing money away.
APA is a wee bit volitile now.
ReplyDeleteRAS...Man, it's a real shootout here. NYS steps in with a 70K share bid.
ReplyDeleteAh chickie that would be skin tight! Aren't you worried about chaffing.
ReplyDeleteAPA - Man, with all these red candles popping up everywhere, how the hell does 12K/1300 stand a chance?
ReplyDeleteRB - Heavens no, I can accept some chaffing b/c the tight ones make me look so much thinner.
ReplyDeleteAPA- Saw that too. I can't find any news. Mus be a rumor we're not privy too.
ReplyDeleteThey have a huge operation in egypt. 30% of their output is what I hear. Which is hearsay.
ReplyDeleteWhat a strange day. My watch list is either up 5% or down 5%. Really a lot of money being reshuffled between tech and commodities on a daily basis.
ReplyDeleteThis is getting a little ridiculous... Come on, do something one way or the other.
ReplyDeleteAlright went back to the dark side. Bought Feb 19 $134 SPY Puts at $4.318 avg. Like 2nd, probably just throwing money away.
ReplyDeleteWhat is doing much worse today than gold? Why it's PG.
ReplyDeleteand closed that at break even. still holding my LVS which looks really strong.
ReplyDeleteSPY = POG soon?
ReplyDeleteNice little break of S1 for LVS.
ReplyDeleteTrading against these computers is tough work.
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing some bids coming into the miners.
ReplyDeleteCP- Tell me about it. I'm exhausted and I haven't even made a trade.
ReplyDeleteBAC moving.
ReplyDeleteImbalances favor the bulls. Especially in the financoals.
ReplyDeleteFinancials.
ReplyDeleteAlright due to that misspelling I'm long coal. I take these signs seriously.
ReplyDeleteRVBD reports. It will be interesting to see market reaction.
ReplyDeleteRVBD/AMZN...Ut-Oh...
ReplyDeleteRB - I almost followed you into that trade, it seemed plausible somehow...
ReplyDeleteI think the tell is not the initial drop, but wheter it is bought. If they get bought watch out.
ReplyDeleteRB - they're buying both drops so far.
ReplyDeletescratch that...the bid is gone in both.
ReplyDeleteMy market barometer has always been SNDK. W/ Sndk lagging lately while making what looks like a rounded top, I'm buying VXX AH around 29.67.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow should be by far the most interesting day in awhile. Huge GDP report (I think), the bull bear fight at 1300, end of the month window dressing after a big up month (they tend to trend at the end), and earnings letdowns from AMZN, SNDK, and MSFT. Should be wild.
jesse - both MSFT and SNDK had really good earnings at first glance...
ReplyDeleteWell, the last day of the trading month is on Monday rather than tomorrow. In that case, it makes tomorrow less interesting.
ReplyDeleteLooks like only AMZN is getting taken down after hours, which makes sense given all of the other companies beat. Crazy but the market seems to be acting correctly short term.
ReplyDeleteFrom last night's sentimentrader-
ReplyDelete"When the market hits a new 52-week high on the day of an FOMC meeting, it tends to follow-though the next day (up 7 of 8 times), but then falter in the couple of days after that (up 2 of 8 times)."
I almost followed you into that trade, it seemed plausible somehow...
ReplyDeleteSure it makes perfect sense. Very Jungian. The collective unconscious of all market forces some how channeled through Mark to me. "Buy ICO." When I get the message i don't ask, Why. I act and don't question it. Same thing happens when I make a mistake on an order. Like going short when i want to go long. Or buying the wrong symbol. I don't correct the mistake. My wee thoughts are no match for these Collective forces much like your skin would be no match for tight denim with a velcro zipper. Now that reminds me of a song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6VIuQbjDEQ
One of the guys on RM mentioned that APA is dropping because of the problems in Egypt. I heard that from another source as well but I have not seen it in print, other than the RM commentary. The RM guy said maybe we should wait a few days before jumping in. APA is one of those that I've been in and out of several times over the last 14 months, unfortunately I've been out since it's big run up from the mid 80's.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Some pretty thin volume there today...
ReplyDeletewhoops, Preston is me. Wow the forces are talking to me. Is there a company called Preston? I need to buy some stock.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of buz about the difference between Brent Crude and WTI. What we see on CNBC is WTI. Looking at the continuous chart, I only see one other time where spreads got this wide and I think today the spreads got wider than they've ever been.
ReplyDeleteICEFE BRENT CRUDE March 2011 97.23 -0.68
CRUDE OIL March 2011 85.64s -1.69
16.08, 15.82, 16.06, 15.23
ReplyDeleteWhat are these? The lowest levels the VIX hit in the last 4 years prior to the VIX bouncing around down here for the past month. Each of those instances saw a doubling in the VIX w/in a month.
VIX spiked down to 15.81 near the close as the market sold off. Strange. COULD be manipulation to get the VIX to touch support one last time before taking off.
If VIX doesn't hold 15, it goes to its lower trendline at 12.50 and the market goes much higher. The 15 area is the line in the sand.
The majority of my RAS was in my 401k and since I have to wait 3 days for the money to clear, I'm going to use this time to find stocks that I would like to buy on the downturn. It's coming, I'm quite sure of it. But I think it will be so fast that people won't have time to take advantage of it. I want to be ready for it. I'm expecting the market to find support in the 1,240 level. Same story as before. Hopefully we will get a final burst higher to 1,320 maybe even tomorrow as a result of a good GDP print. I think it's possible given that the only bad earnings report out there today is AMZN from what I can tell. So I suspect that investors/momentum traders shrug it off and we break through 1,300 tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteLook at what the market shrugged off today: downgrade on Japan debt + bad jobless claims + bad durable report. The market just seems like it isn't quite ready to pull back yet...maybe it needs a final strong move up. We haven't really had one in a while. I'm thinking +1% or more.
Velcro Fly - Good one!
ReplyDeleteWhat a strange animal natty is. I'm gettin the urge to buy some UNG. The Feb contract expired today at $4.316 and the Mar closed at $4.319.
ReplyDeleteI still don't know if you are suppossed to look at the individual contract month or the continuous chart.
Looking at the Mar11 contract, we are right at short term support set the first week of Jan. The Mar11 contract made an all time low (for this contract) on 10/25/2010 at $3.854, then a higher low of $3.89 on 11/15/2010 and then a higher low again of $3.98 on 12/17/2010. Support off those points drawn with a crayola would be around $4.25 ish. It would be good to see a small candle tomorrow that close up every so slightly then I could use $4.20 or so as a stop. A better lower risk play might be to wait until Monday after the revised weather reports come out. If the weather looks bullish then buy. By then UNG will probably be up $.30 from it's short term low but if it rallies like it has over the last few months there should still be
I'm going to give this a little more thought before tomorrow.
I gotta say after looking further at my sale of RAS, I really had no reason to sell it. In fact, it was probably a very bad move. The stock is clearly in an uptrend, just paid a dividend for the 1st time in a while, and technically looks awesome. So as soon as my money clears up I probably will be buying back in.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Join the crowd and get yourself a pair of these pajama jeans, they're fab! ;)
ReplyDeleteOn a side note, there must be some kind of rotation in progress?
TOF- Does a 401K account have the same settlement rules as an IRA? If so, you can buy anything you want, you just can't SELL it until the settled funds clear. Kinda scary. I've done it before.
ReplyDeleteThe action in RVBD shows how shaky hand are right now.
Got to hop. Soccer and BB tonight. Please have my dinner ready @ 7:30 pst.
Re: TZA/VXX @ 14.68/29.62> OFF 14.7x/29.6x newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5182 comments) on Thu, 01/27/2011 - 20:03 #78484 (in reply to #78463)
ReplyDeleteI'll sleep better in cash.
PJs http://www.coolthings.com/pajama-jeans-look-comfy/
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete