Re: New month tomorrow newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5206 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:13 #78713 (in reply to #78710) ballena- The market always frustrates most traders (Vad being a notable exception). Which of the following would frustrate more traders: a +1-2% move that succeeds in leaving behind more bystanders, or a minus 1-2% sell-off that succeeds in shaking out more bulls? Only the market knows.
Had a bid for SDS at the close for 22.66 but wasn't hit. I then started looking at SNDK (my tell for the market) which looks oversold as well as a good reaction to NVLS earnings AH.
Picked up GDXJ 34.12, SHZ 5.66, a tiny amount of GMO 5.05, and RBY 5.80 after hours.
If GDXJ is gonna respect its reversal bar from last week and head higher from here, tomorrow is the key day imo. Its gonna have to gap up on its way to a big day, otherwise....
2nd- Yes, the drive last week from Portland to Hood River was spectacular. I'm sure much hasn't changed since you were there many years ago. They've built an interstate along the river, but you can still drive on highway 30 in parts along the river. Probably not my absolute favorite drive in N. America, but definitely up there with the drive from Vancouver to Tofino, BC, driving along the Oregon coast, and some scenic highways in Colorado.
Anybody else notice the potential 5 week double bottom in FXI at 42? If it holds over the next couple sessions, it goes much higher.
As much as my indicators say the market goes down (hard), its hard to actually place bearish bets w/ semis leading and leading markets like which have already been correcting for 3 months now..
Having said that, the VIX charts I'm looking at say it will explode going forward as it breaks out of an 8 month downtrend.
Re: american home ownership/ No disappointment here newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5207 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 18:09 #78718 (in reply to #78712) The bulk of my (extended) family's net worth was made in real estate. That was true in 1970s Ann Arbor, 1990s Bay Area, 2005 Shanghai, late-2007 San Diego. There is no better investment for both you and your descendants. My Dad leveraged gains from income property in Michigan into a post-retirement home in an exclusive enclave in the Bay Area during the mid-nineties lows. One younger brother bought in Shanghai 5 years ago, and recently sold at twice the price, resulting in something like 8x ROI. Another sibling bought a new home in San Diego in 2007 for 50% of its 2006 list price. Wife and I have traded up twice on the Peninsula in the past twenty years. I have yet to meet the trader with the patience or discipline to match those kinds of gains in the stock market.
we're looking to buy a place in Az (Tuscon) and hold on to our property in Ca, perhaps have one of our neighbors here manage it for us (as a rental). prices in Tuscon have come way, way down.
Anyone have any thoughts on RE values in Az, Tuscon in particular?
2nd_ave said... Re: american home ownership/ No disappointment here newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5208 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 19:45 #78728 (in reply to #78721) NYU- When I drove to the Bay Area from Ann Arbor following graduate school, I had a negative net worth (mainly due to the balance on student loans). I drove a Tercel that burned oil, and slept on the carpet of my apartment/read at night propped against a bare wall until rental furniture arrived.
It was, however, one of the best times of my life. I explored a different exit after work each night- and there are hundreds of distinct neighborhoods/(inexpensive) ethnic restaurants in the Bay Area. I spent a great deal of time being alone with my thoughts- a very underrated activity. And music played in a mostly dark and empty room sounds a lot better.
I saved most of what I earned for three years to come up with the down payment for my first home.
Anyone looking at PIR? Stock is down about 15% from highs 2 weeks ago. Company trades at about 11 times this year's earnings and has $200 Million in cash and no debt.
by the way, BBY looks like a kangaroo tail reversal today with a retest of the lows after they bombed earnings 6 weeks ago. i really like the valuation on this...it's a classic retailer that should continue to well long term in my view, regardless of the trends toward online shopping.
Agree on GOOG. I was going to say earlier that it looked like it had a powerful reversal pattern forming. Didn't realize it was basing on the 50 day as well. I like to look at it every once in awhile as my "guru" has a 950 price target on it based upon its longer term pattern.
JB, I live in Tucson. It is a fire sale on every type of property except entry level type housing. There is price compression on all levels above entry. Meaning the price per square foot goes down considerably the bigger the house you get in most areas. Of coarse location is a key. Around univ and downtown are pricer on SQ foot basis and gets lower the further you get away from city center. The high end houses are selling for 60% of the cost to actually build it.
Mark - I'm gonna hold off on REDF until the 5's I think. In looking at the moves in the stock not only from Sept to Nov but also back in 2002/2003 the stock each time made lower lows in the RSI14 right at the bottom. So if the mid-November lows around 32 is any guide, today's RSI14 of 46 isn't quite at the level where we should be buying. This stock is very explosive, though. I was reading notes on the recent conference call and apparently they're considering making moves into a Groupon type offering because they already have a bunch of businesses signed on to their service that they can piggyback off of. Also, there's some discussion about them offering a CRM type service. Whether it pans out for them or not, just the combination of India internet company + Groupon/CRM/Cloud service = significant speculation.
Also, I have a spreadsheet that has been tracking their quarterly online/total revenues for the past 5 years and they actually grew online revenues over 30% over last year to the same level they were at in 2006.
RB- Interesting. How much would it cost me to buy the house right next to yours? Might be time to branch out a little. Set me up an AZ crack house, over insure it, and let the boys burn it to the ground? Just thinking out load bro.
Crack is way to high class for my neighborhood. The life blood, the heart and soul,our mandala of my barrio is completely devoted to our most sought after muse. Crystal Meth. So here is what we do. You go to Oakland. Join a biker gang. I think you know which one. We don't even need the pure powder, just the psedopheds maybe a Chinese connection.You go down with the boys on the Laughlin river run. I WILL MEET YOU AT THE Riverside my code name will be Duke I will bring the girls, cash and nadurra.....
RB- Yep, the forms of a plan. Damn, I like it. OK, I'll ring up a few of my cribs and get things rolling. Nice work RB. I've already got 3 mules lined up as youth soccer players. Brilliant!
Soccer playing drug mules. I love it. How many pseudopheds do you think you could stuff into a size 3 soccer ball? Reminds me of a movie i saw this weekend. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2upj198FRY
Nice research RB! Ok, we need to be on the look out for fake Jew's. Bet the Catholics are in on this too. Have to be. Damn, this is looking like the home run we've been waiting for if we can just clear the field. I'm on it at this end. "Kendra, Harlan, come here for a second"....
"Just act like midfielders!" Really your kids are at the age where they have to start pulling their own weight. No use spoiling them. They need to be earners now.
My kids would be in , but they don't look so innocent anymore. Tats and piercings still have a stigma in some circles.Plus their PO is always nosing around and the ankle monitor business is a tall hurdle. They will have to stay in sells and your kids will be in distribution.I'm off to find a cook.
OREX Hangover Submitted by Johnny (986 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 07:43 #78750 Reply to ... Re: OREX new Submitted by Sedona (36 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 19:13 #78726 (in reply to #78717)
$OREX: from Zerohedge: "Is Stevie Cohen's Magic Biotech "Touch" Up To Snuff In The New Year? We Are About To Find Out" http://bit.ly/i6Yxkp ----- Pre-Mkt print 7am-ish this morning is -74.xx% That has to be one serious hangover! J
Re: OREX Hangover newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5209 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 08:14 #78753 (in reply to #78750) I came close to throwing the dealer a red chip on the '12' for this one. What happened? Do you think it's worth buying into now?
JB- I don't know, man. Sounds like you'll be dodging 'bike-bys' in AZ. RB makes it seem like 8-year-olds have semi-automatics strapped across their handlebars.
Re: OREX Hangover Submitted by Scott (115 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 08:21 #78754 (in reply to #78753) FDA rejection of their diet drug... enough said
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: OREX Hangover newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5210 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 08:26 #78755 (in reply to #78754) It's probably going to spawn a black market for Mexican bupropion/naltrexone- buy them separately, crush the tablets, and mix with Diet Coke every morning...
Re: OREX Hangover/ Mexican Tequila> Agave with Contrave newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5211 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 09:04 #78763 (in reply to #78760) Overheard cell phone conversation in San Diego-
Lissen up, yo. It happenin'. We need 1000 tabs Wellbutrin, 1000 tabs 'trexone.
Mos' def. New 'product.' Mexican tequila- 'Agave with Contrave.'
Find a good source. If it move, we gon' re-up Friday.
Re: orex newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5212 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 09:09 #78766 (in reply to #78764) Thanks, johnny. I might take a position here. I still think the 'concept' is good- a neurological approach to appetite suppression. All silver bullets targeted at obesity have 'cardiovascular risks,' so approval may ultimately be in the cards.
It's not the news. It's the reaction to the news. And, the good news is that the market bounced back in spite of the news. This action keeps the indices in longer-term uptrends.
Most sectors remain in solid uptrends. The Energies broke out nicely on Monday to new multi-year highs.
Considering the above, the plan remains the same: Continue to focus mostly on the long side. And, as usual, honor your stops on existing positions and wait for entries on new ones.
JB, PRESTON is actually me.Sorry for the confusion. It would be a minor miracle for housing to turn around here. The biggest industry here is building houses.( How can that be self sustaining?). THe area you plan on buying is over built now and there are many more projects that have been shelved. I guess a 10 % gain is possible in a year, but a 10% loss is more likely if interest rates go up. Factor in the cost of maintaining a house that you don't live in. I think waiting will not significantly impact you. Of coarse me and Mark could rent your house for our little entrepreneural operation. On second thought you should buy now!
The dollar is in a free fall. Very ugly looking chart after the consolidation of the past few sessions. On the big down day, I think the dollar was up a whopping .47%. VERY VERY strange given its recent pullback.
As long as the dollar is in free fall, the market has nowhere to go but up in spite of any technical conditions.
Projected eps over $3/sh Chinese cloud computing 2 million float I love the pullback. If it stays down in this area, it could breakout big on the weekly next week.
On the 5 year chart, I see 4 separate cups and handles. One lasting from Jan. 08- Jan. 10, one from approximately March '08- Jan '10, one from Jan. '10 to present, and then one for the last 3 months. GOOG has massive upside.
My life becomes more dependent on GOOG every day. When I go to China, I literally go crazy not being able to access my groups, documents, Youtube etc. etc...
Jesse - I think GOOG sees all time highs this year. They're starting to monetize Youtube, their mobile operating system is the largest in the world, and they happen to have the best search engine in the world. Yet the stock trades at 17 times this year's earnings and it has $110/share in cash.
Mark - I don't think I should be getting cute with my RAS position at these levels (i.e., selling for the hope of buying back cheaper is probably a dumb move). The company just started paying dividends again for the first time in over 2 years. That's a powerful statement that things are getting better. At 0.25 times book value, we need to stay bullish I think.
Just took a step back and thought about how volatile markets can be at turning points. Everything I touch has turned to gold. That's not normal. Getting defensive here. Sold part of JTX.
Technically speaking Goog looks good, PIR looks ok if it could get up above the 20 and 50,and turn up its 10 day. but BBY looks awful. Possible short canidate. RAS is a buy if it breaks $3.10. Good luck
Finished picking up SDS. Placed a stop at 21.19 which should be safe till about S+P 1325ish. Heading abroad in a few days and would like to keep the position ideally for 5 weeks.
In addition to all of the technical indicators at extremes, this note from Sentimentrader keeps popping up in the back of my mind:
The S+P setting a fresh 52-week high one day, then collapsing to a 10-day low the next. Going back to 1928, this has occurred 8 other times.
The index's most consistent performance in the weeks ahead was 26 days later, when it was up 1 time and down 7 times. Average max loss 6.25%.
All the time CP. Just happens that all of its indicators (price oscillator, put call, nl/nh ratio, rydex ratio, vix transform, fidelity sector breadth, amg mutual fund flow, sentiment survey, nasdaq 100 hedger position, dumb $ confidence among many others) are at extremes seen before longer term market downturns.
From a bullish short term perspective, here was his commentary Sunday evening:
"Friday's drop was enough to finally trigger some oversold readings among our shorter-term guides for the first time since November. When we see this kind of abrupt shift, it's not unusual to see a short-term snapback while the dust clears, and I suspect that's what we'll see here, especially if we get another day of selling on Monday.
That would set up a "turnaround Tuesday" setup, with what has been exceptionally positive seasonality during the first session of a new month. 94% of 2010's gains came during the first day of a new month. 61% of the entire rally was due to gap up openings on the first day of a new month...so, about 12 seconds of trading activity, depending on how granular you want to get.
So if we get more selling pressure on Monday, I'll be looking for a rebound during Tuesday at least, possibly even another day or two, but ultimately leading to a lower low."
TOF- Don't take this the wrong way, but your the luckiest MFer in the history of the world. One more day in settlement purgatory and you'd be poking your eyes out right now :)
CSCO> Closed @ 21.50, BAC> Closed @ 14.27 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5213 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:25 #78795 CSCO opened at an average basis of 21. BAC opened @ 13.74. Both were for trades- opened on negative sentiment, and taking profits on exuberance.
OAKBX> Exiting the buy-and-hold at today's close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5214 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:28 #78796 A 24-hour trade- opened on POSITIVE sentiment, and taking profits on exuberance.
Boy, talk about a political blunder by our illustrious congress, supporting a dictatorship at the expense of the freedoms of the people of Egypt. It's pretty shameful if you ask me, I don't blame them for not trusting us anymore.
Mark - I know man. That's why I was thinking I'm being stupid in not just holding RAS. Trying to get too cute with it and then all of a sudden I'm out of the position looking in as it goes up and up, which is a terrible predicament to be in.
2nd - Awesome trades man. I believe you're handily beating the market this year if my memory serves me right. Well done.
You know what...I wonder if today's move is the final thrust higher that kills the bears off. They got a taste of bearish action twice in the past couple of weeks only to get completely annihilated...with today just being an absolute disaster. And bulls are just loving this action. Makes me think we should maybe be lightening up again...
Re: Trends, events and common sense/ Incense and Peppermints newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5215 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:46 #78798 (in reply to #78785) http://tinyurl.com/ltokuu
Trends, events and common sense, meaningless nouns Turn on, tune in, turn your eyes around Who cares what games we choose Little to win, and a lot to lose
illini - -8 degrees? Burrrr! Well, then go easy on the holiday meat log with brown mustard. To our dismay, several of our Christmas snow angels here were sporting skid marks!
Guys - Check out MWA...this one looks really interesting. It's a play on water pipes/infrastructure. I used to follow this one a while ago. Earnings after the bell. I opened up a starting position at HOD $4.39 just now.
What a day today! I am glad that I exited my VXX yesterday and closed my SPY puts. So for a change my portfolio is actually up today together with the broad market. Just like in January 2010, the correction did not start the day after I closed my shorts -- the market gave me a couple of days to enjoy myself for having my port go up together with the broad market. I wonder if the same thing will happen this time -- only a day or two to enjoy myself...
I got stopped out of my 1000 shares of TWM today at $12.19, the same price I entered it last week (I moved up my stops on Friday so as to make sure that I don't let a profit turn into a loss).
So now I decided to place a buy limit order for 2000 shares of TWM at $11.90, with the intention of exiting it if IWM breaks to an all time high (it has only 50 cents to go, so I'll place a tight stop on this position).
My buy stop order on GDXJ got triggered today at $35.20 for 2% of my portfolio. I am comfortable holding this for a long time, since it has already corrected a lot.
This action over the past few days kinda feels like one of those blowoff tops. I'd rather stick with deeper in the money puts so I don't get shaken out of my hedge.
Well, maybe a safer bet will be to place a buy stop limit order on TWM at $12/$12.10 -- I doubt the market gaps down tomorrow, and if a sell-off does start tomorrow, it will probably start gradually and my buy stop order will have a chance to be triggered.
Wow...that's some cool stuff! I just realized that you can close your SPY puts/calls up until 4:15. I found out b/c I tried selling my puts because they were at profits and it worked. The bad side is I just sold all of my SPY puts just now. To maintain a hedge, I'll probably just short SPY.
I sold three stocks today out of one of my accounts, leaving nothing in it. They were: PBR, GXP and BCF. Its long term losses on the last two and a very nice gain on PBR, which I bought in mid Nov. Wanted to cash out and clear the deck. Hope to reload on PBR if it drops back.
I only suffer in the office during the day, at night I eat out and feel better and although I can't sleep, it's because of the noise.
My symptoms are shared by people other than my race. To wit, they complain of flushing, blushing, running of the mouth, high stool, seat cramps delayed borborygmus and shortness of pants.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borborygmus
In certain cases due to excessive exposure to funny spores, it can escalate into Farmers Lung.
I decided to place a buy stop limit order on TWM for 4% of my portfolio some distance away from today's close (at $12.20/$12.25), so as to reduce the chances of being faked out tomorrow morning and enter TWM only if today's rally was really the last assault on the short sellers and the market makes a decisive plunge tomorrow.
Re: New month tomorrow newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5206 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:13 #78713 (in reply to #78710)
ReplyDeleteballena- The market always frustrates most traders (Vad being a notable exception). Which of the following would frustrate more traders: a +1-2% move that succeeds in leaving behind more bystanders, or a minus 1-2% sell-off that succeeds in shaking out more bulls? Only the market knows.
Had a bid for SDS at the close for 22.66 but wasn't hit. I then started looking at SNDK (my tell for the market) which looks oversold as well as a good reaction to NVLS earnings AH.
ReplyDeletePicked up GDXJ 34.12, SHZ 5.66, a tiny amount of GMO 5.05, and RBY 5.80 after hours.
If GDXJ is gonna respect its reversal bar from last week and head higher from here, tomorrow is the key day imo. Its gonna have to gap up on its way to a big day, otherwise....
2nd- Yes, the drive last week from Portland to Hood River was spectacular. I'm sure much hasn't changed since you were there many years ago. They've built an interstate along the river, but you can still drive on highway 30 in parts along the river. Probably not my absolute favorite drive in N. America, but definitely up there with the drive from Vancouver to Tofino, BC, driving along the Oregon coast, and some scenic highways in Colorado.
Anybody else notice the potential 5 week double bottom in FXI at 42? If it holds over the next couple sessions, it goes much higher.
ReplyDeleteAs much as my indicators say the market goes down (hard), its hard to actually place bearish bets w/ semis leading and leading markets like which have already been correcting for 3 months now..
Having said that, the VIX charts I'm looking at say it will explode going forward as it breaks out of an 8 month downtrend.
correction:
ReplyDelete"leading markets like which"
leading markets like China which....
My belief is GDXJ looks good.
ReplyDeleteDrizzle, drazzle, druzzle, drome; time for zis one to come home! ;)
Re: american home ownership/ No disappointment here newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5207 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 18:09 #78718 (in reply to #78712)
ReplyDeleteThe bulk of my (extended) family's net worth was made in real estate. That was true in 1970s Ann Arbor, 1990s Bay Area, 2005 Shanghai, late-2007 San Diego. There is no better investment for both you and your descendants. My Dad leveraged gains from income property in Michigan into a post-retirement home in an exclusive enclave in the Bay Area during the mid-nineties lows. One younger brother bought in Shanghai 5 years ago, and recently sold at twice the price, resulting in something like 8x ROI. Another sibling bought a new home in San Diego in 2007 for 50% of its 2006 list price. Wife and I have traded up twice on the Peninsula in the past twenty years. I have yet to meet the trader with the patience or discipline to match those kinds of gains in the stock market.
Now is a decent time to buy, IMHO.
we're looking to buy a place in Az (Tuscon) and hold on to our property in Ca, perhaps have one of our neighbors here manage it for us (as a rental). prices in Tuscon have come way, way down.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have any thoughts on RE values in Az, Tuscon in particular?
2nd - I hope you're right. That would bode well for RAS and for my home furnishings business.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, part of me thinks we should be buying this dip in REDF. Anyone else?
2nd_ave said...
ReplyDeleteRe: american home ownership/ No disappointment here newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5208 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 19:45 #78728 (in reply to #78721)
NYU- When I drove to the Bay Area from Ann Arbor following graduate school, I had a negative net worth (mainly due to the balance on student loans). I drove a Tercel that burned oil, and slept on the carpet of my apartment/read at night propped against a bare wall until rental furniture arrived.
It was, however, one of the best times of my life. I explored a different exit after work each night- and there are hundreds of distinct neighborhoods/(inexpensive) ethnic restaurants in the Bay Area. I spent a great deal of time being alone with my thoughts- a very underrated activity. And music played in a mostly dark and empty room sounds a lot better.
I saved most of what I earned for three years to come up with the down payment for my first home.
Anyone looking at PIR? Stock is down about 15% from highs 2 weeks ago. Company trades at about 11 times this year's earnings and has $200 Million in cash and no debt.
ReplyDeletePIR/RAS/REDF - Approved, approved, approved!
ReplyDeleteI like 'em all! ;) I still kinda wonder a little about India, probably invalid concern.
Last time I'm looking at GOOG I swear, but it's right at the 50DMA.
ReplyDeleteby the way, BBY looks like a kangaroo tail reversal today with a retest of the lows after they bombed earnings 6 weeks ago. i really like the valuation on this...it's a classic retailer that should continue to well long term in my view, regardless of the trends toward online shopping.
ReplyDeleteTOF-
ReplyDeleteAgree on GOOG. I was going to say earlier that it looked like it had a powerful reversal pattern forming. Didn't realize it was basing on the 50 day as well. I like to look at it every once in awhile as my "guru" has a 950 price target on it based upon its longer term pattern.
JB, I live in Tucson. It is a fire sale on every type of property except entry level type housing.
ReplyDeleteThere is price compression on all levels above entry. Meaning the price per square foot goes down considerably the bigger the house you get in most areas. Of coarse location is a key. Around univ and downtown are pricer on SQ foot basis and gets lower the further you get away from city center. The high end houses are selling for 60% of the cost to actually build it.
TOF- Re-REDF...None of me!!
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm gonna hold off on REDF until the 5's I think. In looking at the moves in the stock not only from Sept to Nov but also back in 2002/2003 the stock each time made lower lows in the RSI14 right at the bottom. So if the mid-November lows around 32 is any guide, today's RSI14 of 46 isn't quite at the level where we should be buying. This stock is very explosive, though. I was reading notes on the recent conference call and apparently they're considering making moves into a Groupon type offering because they already have a bunch of businesses signed on to their service that they can piggyback off of. Also, there's some discussion about them offering a CRM type service. Whether it pans out for them or not, just the combination of India internet company + Groupon/CRM/Cloud service = significant speculation.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I have a spreadsheet that has been tracking their quarterly online/total revenues for the past 5 years and they actually grew online revenues over 30% over last year to the same level they were at in 2006.
ReplyDeleteRB- Interesting. How much would it cost me to buy the house right next to yours? Might be time to branch out a little. Set me up an AZ crack house, over insure it, and let the boys burn it to the ground? Just thinking out load bro.
ReplyDeleteCrack is way to high class for my neighborhood. The life blood, the heart and soul,our mandala of my barrio is completely devoted to our most sought after muse. Crystal Meth. So here is what we do. You go to Oakland. Join a biker gang. I think you know which one. We don't even need the pure powder, just the psedopheds maybe a Chinese connection.You go down with the boys on the Laughlin river run. I WILL MEET YOU AT THE Riverside my code name will be Duke I will bring the girls, cash and nadurra.....
ReplyDeleteRB- Yep, the forms of a plan. Damn, I like it. OK, I'll ring up a few of my cribs and get things rolling. Nice work RB. I've already got 3 mules lined up as youth soccer players. Brilliant!
ReplyDeleteSoccer playing drug mules. I love it. How many pseudopheds do you think you could stuff into a size 3 soccer ball? Reminds me of a movie i saw this weekend.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2upj198FRY
Nice research RB! Ok, we need to be on the look out for fake Jew's. Bet the Catholics are in on this too. Have to be. Damn, this is looking like the home run we've been waiting for if we can just clear the field. I'm on it at this end. "Kendra, Harlan, come here for a second"....
ReplyDelete"Just act like midfielders!" Really your kids are at the age where they have to start pulling their own weight. No use spoiling them. They need to be earners now.
ReplyDeleteMy kids would be in , but they don't look so innocent anymore. Tats and piercings still have a stigma in some circles.Plus their PO is always nosing around and the ankle monitor business is a tall hurdle. They will have to stay in sells and your kids will be in distribution.I'm off to find a cook.
ReplyDeleteAlmost seems like someone put reflation temporarily on hold while the rebellion in Egypt has been raging.
ReplyDeleteThanks Preston! Any thoughts as to how long prices may stay depressed? We are thinking of just buying now but we could also just wait another year.
ReplyDeleteWe are looking at Oro Valley and Sun City - what do you think of those locations?
My primary past time is cycling, did a couple of races in and around Tuscon and the weather is perfect for year round riding.
thanks again!
OREX Hangover
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Johnny (986 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 07:43 #78750
Reply to ...
Re: OREX new
Submitted by Sedona (36 comments) on Mon, 01/31/2011 - 19:13 #78726 (in reply to #78717)
$OREX: from Zerohedge: "Is Stevie Cohen's Magic Biotech "Touch" Up To Snuff In The New Year? We Are About To Find Out" http://bit.ly/i6Yxkp
-----
Pre-Mkt print 7am-ish this morning is -74.xx% That has to be one serious hangover!
J
Re: OREX Hangover newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5209 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 08:14 #78753 (in reply to #78750)
ReplyDeleteI came close to throwing the dealer a red chip on the '12' for this one. What happened? Do you think it's worth buying into now?
JB- I don't know, man. Sounds like you'll be dodging 'bike-bys' in AZ. RB makes it seem like 8-year-olds have semi-automatics strapped across their handlebars.
ReplyDeleteOf course, if you're Steven Seagal, not a problem.
ReplyDeleteRe: OREX Hangover
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Scott (115 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 08:21 #78754 (in reply to #78753)
FDA rejection of their diet drug... enough said
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
Re: OREX Hangover newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5210 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 08:26 #78755 (in reply to #78754)
It's probably going to spawn a black market for Mexican bupropion/naltrexone- buy them separately, crush the tablets, and mix with Diet Coke every morning...
Certainly will need to keep my head down 2nd!
ReplyDeleteRe: OREX Hangover/ Mexican Tequila> Agave with Contrave newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5211 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 09:04 #78763 (in reply to #78760)
ReplyDeleteOverheard cell phone conversation in San Diego-
Lissen up, yo. It happenin'. We need 1000 tabs Wellbutrin, 1000 tabs 'trexone.
Mos' def. New 'product.' Mexican tequila- 'Agave with Contrave.'
Find a good source. If it move, we gon' re-up Friday.
Re: orex newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5212 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 09:09 #78766 (in reply to #78764)
ReplyDeleteThanks, johnny. I might take a position here. I still think the 'concept' is good- a neurological approach to appetite suppression. All silver bullets targeted at obesity have 'cardiovascular risks,' so approval may ultimately be in the cards.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
It's not the news. It's the reaction to the news. And, the good news is that the market bounced back in spite of the news.
This action keeps the indices in longer-term uptrends.
Most sectors remain in solid uptrends. The Energies broke out nicely on Monday to new multi-year highs.
Considering the above, the plan remains the same: Continue to focus mostly on the long side. And, as usual, honor your stops on existing positions and wait for entries on new ones.
Damn- For once, I may be trading like Landry.
ReplyDeleteOREX- Only for a trade guys. From what I've read, only a little, this Co. is a one shot wonder.
ReplyDeleteJB,
ReplyDeletePRESTON is actually me.Sorry for the confusion. It would be a minor miracle for housing to turn around here. The biggest industry here is building houses.( How can that be self sustaining?). THe area you plan on buying is over built now and there are many more projects that have been shelved. I guess a 10 % gain is possible in a year, but a 10% loss is more likely if interest rates go up. Factor in the cost of maintaining a house that you don't live in. I think waiting will not significantly impact you. Of coarse me and Mark could rent your house for our little entrepreneural operation. On second thought you should buy now!
Controversial video / kiss
ReplyDeletehttp://goo.gl/h8SIv
Reloaded RAS at $2.55 average this morning.
ReplyDeleteBought BBY at $34.25.
Bought some PIR at $9.48.
Bought some GOOG at $607.4
King Abdella Jordan, sacks his cabinet...
ReplyDeleteAh, thx RB. we're going to head down there in a few months and check it out.
ReplyDeleteGOOG looks like its going to have a big day. To that end, I bought a couple of Feb 19 $590 Calls at $23
ReplyDeleteMight get the mother of all short squeezes today.
ReplyDeletePM miners selling off. Is that fear trade over?
ReplyDeleteWho's your HERO?
ReplyDeletePM Miners - You would think the potential for upheaval in the middle east might help put a bottom in PM's.
ReplyDeleteKing Abdella of Jordan has sacked his cabinet.
Gold is down, this PM miner weakness is counterintuitive, I'm ready to bail...
The mother of all short squeezes? That sounds good to me, man.
ReplyDeletegap and go mark, gap and go. this market ain't stopping at 1,300.
ReplyDeletejeez...i bought some BBY $32 Feb calls at the open and they're already up 25%. something tells me we should be loading up this stock.
ReplyDeletesame goes with PIR, which i would have to imagine is a buyout candidate.
Long Finsar
ReplyDeleteGOOG powers to new highs shortly. Watch. Talk about throwing everyone off the train before it makes its real move.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Sheesh, the low volume makes this thing wild. I guess the MM can smake this thing around and make the channel take any shape he desires.
ReplyDeleteThis time he kept true to form.
Picked up JTX 1.59.
ReplyDeleteSpent much of the night researching. Will post later.
RB- Which one?
ReplyDeleteLet us know Jesse. Interesting chart.
ReplyDeleteDNN- Nice breakout.
ReplyDeleteMOTR looks like it has 50% upside in the short term to previous highs, BUT earnings coming out on the 7th. That's a no-no for me.
ReplyDeleteABX - 2x relative volume, are buyers snapping up shares from weak hands before this thing moves up?
ReplyDeletePOG circling the bowl?
CREE @ 51.36.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar is in a free fall. Very ugly looking chart after the consolidation of the past few sessions. On the big down day, I think the dollar was up a whopping .47%. VERY VERY strange given its recent pullback.
ReplyDeleteAs long as the dollar is in free fall, the market has nowhere to go but up in spite of any technical conditions.
The only support I see is just below 76.
Sorry FNSR misspelled it. Where is FF. we need a language lesson.
ReplyDeleteGood luck boys...
ReplyDeleteout GMO for .16, GDXJ for .75, SHZ for .30, RBY for .13
ReplyDeleteABX - Screw it, I'm out with a few pennies gain right before lift-off.
ReplyDeleteLooking for something I can understand...
ABX - Make that a few pennies lost.
ReplyDeleteRLOC similar to MOTR. Could have a 40% upside retracement.
ReplyDeletePicked up SBAY 9.60.
ReplyDeleteProjected eps over $3/sh
Chinese cloud computing
2 million float
I love the pullback. If it stays down in this area, it could breakout big on the weekly next week.
For you chartists: doesn't GOOG on a monthly chart look like a cup and handle?
ReplyDeleteTOF-
ReplyDeleteOn the 5 year chart, I see 4 separate cups and handles. One lasting from Jan. 08- Jan. 10, one from approximately March '08- Jan '10, one from Jan. '10 to present, and then one for the last 3 months. GOOG has massive upside.
My life becomes more dependent on GOOG every day. When I go to China, I literally go crazy not being able to access my groups, documents, Youtube etc. etc...
ABX - Son of a bitch!
ReplyDeleteJesse - I think GOOG sees all time highs this year. They're starting to monetize Youtube, their mobile operating system is the largest in the world, and they happen to have the best search engine in the world. Yet the stock trades at 17 times this year's earnings and it has $110/share in cash.
ReplyDeleteMark - I don't think I should be getting cute with my RAS position at these levels (i.e., selling for the hope of buying back cheaper is probably a dumb move). The company just started paying dividends again for the first time in over 2 years. That's a powerful statement that things are getting better. At 0.25 times book value, we need to stay bullish I think.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Why wouldn't you want to add on a pullback? I'm looking to join that party ya' know.
ReplyDeleteCP - i think the pullback was contained at $2.5.
ReplyDeletePOG - Now red again, acts like a POS stock!
ReplyDeletePicked up SDS 22.03. Euphoria has set in for the moment.
ReplyDeleteXLE is a screaming short as well as its inverses DUG and ERY
ReplyDelete2nd - great call today my friend. you just got your +100 DJIA
ReplyDeleteTOF - I agree completely, it probably was contained @ $2.5 I'm just sayin' I'm looking to get in at some point.
ReplyDeleteI'd like for something to pull back that I can park some money in, I thought that might be ABX but I just can't keep my faith in gold.
CP > i think GOOG / PIR / BBY can all be bought here. you know my take on RAS.
ReplyDeleteJust took a step back and thought about how volatile markets can be at turning points. Everything I touch has turned to gold. That's not normal. Getting defensive here. Sold part of JTX.
ReplyDeleteout of SBAY for a 1.5% haircut.
ReplyDeleteRAS - I'm in, I like the fundamentals of this kind of play.
ReplyDeleteUUP at its 52 week closing low. I think dollar could find support here and reverse.
ReplyDeleteOut ICO. A 7.5% gestault trade.
ReplyDeleteI might add this hoopty to my collection if I can work out a sweet deal:
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=220731889591
Technically speaking Goog looks good, PIR looks ok if it could get up above the 20 and 50,and turn up its 10 day. but BBY looks awful. Possible short canidate. RAS is a buy if it breaks $3.10. Good luck
ReplyDeleteSold my GOOG calls at $26.7 that I bought at $23.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Placed on my white-knuckles-long list @ $2.69, I could add if it were to fall here.
ReplyDeleteFinished picking up SDS. Placed a stop at 21.19 which should be safe till about S+P 1325ish. Heading abroad in a few days and would like to keep the position ideally for 5 weeks.
ReplyDeleteIn addition to all of the technical indicators at extremes, this note from Sentimentrader keeps popping up in the back of my mind:
The S+P setting a fresh 52-week high one day, then collapsing to a 10-day low the next. Going back to 1928, this has occurred 8 other times.
The index's most consistent performance in the weeks ahead was 26 days later, when it was up 1 time and down 7 times. Average max loss 6.25%.
Back in my GOOG calls at $25.98 avg.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought some CHGI.
Does sentiment trader EVER concentrate on positive indicators?
ReplyDeleteI'm an optimist, in case you were wondering. ;)
ReplyDeleteUPS - Great earnings, right? I heard this on the radio this morning. To me, it has meaning.
ReplyDeleteAll the time CP. Just happens that all of its indicators (price oscillator, put call, nl/nh ratio, rydex ratio, vix transform, fidelity sector breadth, amg mutual fund flow, sentiment survey, nasdaq 100 hedger position, dumb $ confidence among many others) are at extremes seen before longer term market downturns.
ReplyDeleteFrom a bullish short term perspective, here was his commentary Sunday evening:
"Friday's drop was enough to finally trigger some oversold readings among our shorter-term guides for the first time since November. When we see this kind of abrupt shift, it's not unusual to see a short-term snapback while the dust clears, and I suspect that's what we'll see here, especially if we get another day of selling on Monday.
That would set up a "turnaround Tuesday" setup, with what has been exceptionally positive seasonality during the first session of a new month. 94% of 2010's gains came during the first day of a new month. 61% of the entire rally was due to gap up openings on the first day of a new month...so, about 12 seconds of trading activity, depending on how granular you want to get.
So if we get more selling pressure on Monday, I'll be looking for a rebound during Tuesday at least, possibly even another day or two, but ultimately leading to a lower low."
TOF- Don't take this the wrong way, but your the luckiest MFer in the history of the world. One more day in settlement purgatory and you'd be poking your eyes out right now :)
ReplyDeleteAnother new record for copper.
ReplyDelete"(price oscillator, put call, nl/nh ratio, rydex ratio, vix transform, fidelity sector breadth, amg mutual fund flow, sentiment survey, nasdaq 100 hedger position, dumb $ confidence among many others) are at extremes"
ReplyDeleteThese being at extremes kinda sounds bullish to me, the market is trying to deny entry.
CSCO> Closed @ 21.50, BAC> Closed @ 14.27 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5213 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:25 #78795
ReplyDeleteCSCO opened at an average basis of 21. BAC opened @ 13.74. Both were for trades- opened on negative sentiment, and taking profits on exuberance.
OAKBX> Exiting the buy-and-hold at today's close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5214 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:28 #78796
ReplyDeleteA 24-hour trade- opened on POSITIVE sentiment, and taking profits on exuberance.
Boy, talk about a political blunder by our illustrious congress, supporting a dictatorship at the expense of the freedoms of the people of Egypt. It's pretty shameful if you ask me, I don't blame them for not trusting us anymore.
ReplyDeleteMark - I know man. That's why I was thinking I'm being stupid in not just holding RAS. Trying to get too cute with it and then all of a sudden I'm out of the position looking in as it goes up and up, which is a terrible predicament to be in.
ReplyDelete2nd - Awesome trades man. I believe you're handily beating the market this year if my memory serves me right. Well done.
You know what...I wonder if today's move is the final thrust higher that kills the bears off. They got a taste of bearish action twice in the past couple of weeks only to get completely annihilated...with today just being an absolute disaster. And bulls are just loving this action. Makes me think we should maybe be lightening up again...
ReplyDeleteSold my 3000 CHGI shares at $1.91 to $1.94...waste of money that trade was.
ReplyDeleteRe: Trends, events and common sense/ Incense and Peppermints newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5215 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:46 #78798 (in reply to #78785)
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/ltokuu
Trends, events and common sense, meaningless nouns
Turn on, tune in, turn your eyes around
Who cares what games we choose
Little to win, and a lot to lose
Good post, Vad.
illini - -8 degrees? Burrrr! Well, then go easy on the holiday meat log with brown mustard. To our dismay, several of our Christmas snow angels here were sporting skid marks!
ReplyDeleteOPEN challenging it's all time high. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteMS upgrades APA to outpreform.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I don't know man. UPS hasn't blinked.
ReplyDeleteagain, can't think of a more worthless, valueless value prop than OPEN....shows what little I know.
ReplyDeleteOut of my GOOG calls at $25.0. Lost about $200.
ReplyDeleteVolume/price rising in UPS.
ReplyDeletePut PCAR on the watch list boys. This is a MOG Co.
ReplyDeletePCAR- Hmmm...Earnings in line with +42% Rev.
ReplyDeleteMargin call time.
ReplyDeleteGuys - Check out MWA...this one looks really interesting. It's a play on water pipes/infrastructure. I used to follow this one a while ago. Earnings after the bell. I opened up a starting position at HOD $4.39 just now.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Know the Co. well through my business. OK, I'll follow you @ 4.39. No chance the FDA pulls the plug on them, right? :)
ReplyDeletehaha..no i don't think they have a pending trial.
ReplyDeleteBUY imbalances across the board.
ReplyDeleteWhat a day today! I am glad that I exited my VXX yesterday and closed my SPY puts. So for a change my portfolio is actually up today together with the broad market. Just like in January 2010, the correction did not start the day after I closed my shorts -- the market gave me a couple of days to enjoy myself for having my port go up together with the broad market. I wonder if the same thing will happen this time -- only a day or two to enjoy myself...
ReplyDeleteI got stopped out of my 1000 shares of TWM today at $12.19, the same price I entered it last week (I moved up my stops on Friday so as to make sure that I don't let a profit turn into a loss).
So now I decided to place a buy limit order for 2000 shares of TWM at $11.90, with the intention of exiting it if IWM breaks to an all time high (it has only 50 cents to go, so I'll place a tight stop on this position).
My buy stop order on GDXJ got triggered today at $35.20 for 2% of my portfolio. I am comfortable holding this for a long time, since it has already corrected a lot.
ReplyDeleteOk, I am still holding my RAS and will hold my starter position in MWA into earnings.
ReplyDeleteI also bought about 15k worth of SPY Puts deep in the money:
$7,500 worth of SPY $140 March puts at $9.78
$7,500 worth of SPY $136 March puts at $6.24
This action over the past few days kinda feels like one of those blowoff tops. I'd rather stick with deeper in the money puts so I don't get shaken out of my hedge.
ReplyDeleteDamn! Looks like TWM ran away from me today -- I could have moved up my limit to $11.91 and purchased it!
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe a safer bet will be to place a buy stop limit order on TWM at $12/$12.10 -- I doubt the market gaps down tomorrow, and if a sell-off does start tomorrow, it will probably start gradually and my buy stop order will have a chance to be triggered.
ReplyDeleteWow...that's some cool stuff! I just realized that you can close your SPY puts/calls up until 4:15. I found out b/c I tried selling my puts because they were at profits and it worked. The bad side is I just sold all of my SPY puts just now. To maintain a hedge, I'll probably just short SPY.
ReplyDeleteThe blizzard started here 3 hours ago. Whiteout conditions now. Tomorrow night = 9 below.
ReplyDeleteBidding MANH @ 24.50. Hey, crazier things have happened.
ReplyDeleteI sold three stocks today out of one of my accounts, leaving nothing in it. They were: PBR, GXP and BCF. Its long term losses on the last two and a very nice gain on PBR, which I bought in mid Nov. Wanted to cash out and clear the deck. Hope to reload on PBR if it drops back.
ReplyDeleteBCF is a closed end fund that I bought near its 2008 peak.
ReplyDeleteIt's a very serious storm, be careful. Buy beef, chicken, pork now? Farm animals may die, grains may fall?
ReplyDeleteMark - MWA earnings look pretty bad and comments are pretty cautious. Let's see how they trade the stock tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I sold all because I have condo fever. Similar to cabin fever but worse. Same symptoms including an eagerness to get out.
ReplyDeleteI only suffer in the office during the day, at night I eat out and feel better and although I can't sleep, it's because of the noise.
ReplyDeleteMy symptoms are shared by people other than my race. To wit, they complain of flushing, blushing, running of the mouth, high stool, seat cramps delayed borborygmus and shortness of pants.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borborygmus
In certain cases due to excessive exposure to funny spores, it can escalate into Farmers Lung.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmer%27s_lung
OREX: Trading volume=187.7m, Float=26.9m
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5216 comments) on Tue, 02/01/2011 - 19:26 #78818
That's just unbelievable.
OREX - It sounds overdone to me, and I haven't even looked at the chart. Short squeeze coming or in progress?
ReplyDeleteOh boy, that chart looks pretty flat! I guess the computers had fun trying to trade their way out of it...
ReplyDeleteGlad it wasn't with my money.
I decided to place a buy stop limit order on TWM for 4% of my portfolio some distance away from today's close (at $12.20/$12.25), so as to reduce the chances of being faked out tomorrow morning and enter TWM only if today's rally was really the last assault on the short sellers and the market makes a decisive plunge tomorrow.
ReplyDelete