Thursday, February 10, 2011
2/11/11 I'm A Man
Mark/tof- These guys have no problem letting it all hang out on stage.
I know exactly how you feel. How many times have I got jacked out of a position, only to watch prices soar soon after? On the other hand, we often dismiss the times we sold, only to watch prices tank- CSCO comes to mind. It all evens out in the end. You both made money- a lot of it. There are worse things in life than not having made more. Another Todd Harrison quote- 'When it moves against you, you always have too much. When it moves your way, you never have enough.' 'Nuff said.
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Ode to a married man:
ReplyDeleteI'm a man. But I can change, if I have to!
2nd- Your right, of course. I'll be 'over' it by market open tomorrow. Have to be, or I should just hand my money over to BC.
ReplyDeleteLooking at a weekly chart for CLNE....Ah, forget it..
ReplyDeleteWeekly chart on /es looks like a topping tail hammer if we end the week at 1300
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteCan you ask MOG about refiners. I am wondering how WNR could all of a sudden be worth twice as much as it was 6 months ago. UP 253 % since August.
IMAX - Kinda looks like it's on a shelf. Don't know about the short term but this one's gonna be a good long term place to park money.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Is getting pretty cheap again.
ReplyDeleteCP- Kinda agree with TLT for a quick trade.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about TLT also.I'm thinking about selling puts. Does TLT have a monthly Divi. Imax is on my watch list. I own RLD which is the main competitor, but trades like a chop master biotech.
ReplyDeleteRB- I'm pretty sure TLT pays quarterly.
ReplyDeleteI'll ask about the refiners, but I'm sure he will say margins. I follow VLO in that space. Interesting it had the highest volume today back to Aug.
I feel it's important to fill you all in on a major change my family is going to undertake. RB has offered in exchange for my stock picks, he will allow my family to live in his garage rent free.
ReplyDeleteI've also been assured that RB has a kegerator in his garage that will be available at no cost to me, and he has built a suitable 3 tier bunk bed system for my charges.
Conditional items include air conditioning, meals, soccer training, and a used wide screen TV and clock radio based on my performance.
TLT - I'm wondering if there'll be some kind of capitulation event of if Ben's gonna start pumping her back up before that happens?
ReplyDeleteI also notice the S&P RSI peaked mid 70's a couple sessions ago, and came back down through 70, could be a warning.
Timing is pretty good for some money to come from the market back into T's? I'd rather see T's reverse to the upside, not sure if Ben can do that himself.
Add to this, the Egyptian president's refusal to leave office, and the media harping on that, and the stars could be aligning? I'm really not too concerned about Egypt, but it would make a good excuse for the big boys to use for making an exit.
I'm gonna hold off on adding for a few days, watching TLT closely.
I don't think RB's garage is gonna fly with your family, you must be talking about going it alone.
ReplyDeleteI don't know, but it sounds like you've made some dinero lately, the family should be happy...
Heads up to all on the board. We have to be close to a top. I am JSP. I am normally a perma bear and I have never ever been this bullish on the market. I'm thinking crazy. Full margin ect.Hell I even looked at the chart for CLNE for 15 minutes and liked it. Time to make a long short list and shorten the long list.Although I am saying this in a less than serious way. it really is not a joke.
ReplyDeleteIMF calls for reserve currency replacement:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm
Mark, I have sad news. I live in TooStoned. We don't have garages here. We have carports. The reason, Garages get to 220 degrees in the summer. We do have a nice az room off the mobile. The kids could stay next to the pile of budlight cans. You and the misses can hangout on the smoking couch you just have to give the pitbulls a couple of good kicks in the ribs. I'm already marking CLNE as one of your picks. Three more and we have a deal. Make sure they are all junior goldmining stocks. Something like JAG.
ReplyDeleteTLT is a monthly div, boys.
ReplyDeleteAgree 100% with 2nd's lead in, you can't get it all boys. Actually very good trading.
WTF, you really think you can call tops and bottoms, that's a mug's game.
CSCO is a classic example of why I seldom hold into earnings, a 50/50 flip of the coin. Occasionally, very occasionally will I do it and only if I have very strong conviction and reasonable size.
The Third Dimension
RB - I've already been beaten up pretty badly for the past few months mostly flat, which is why I've been trying to trade a bit more to catch up.
ReplyDeleteSo if metals don't snap out of their little fit soon, I may have to pair my positions.
That said, if the dollar can stay about where it is, or continue moving lower, I'll feel more comfortable.
I think the real issue is grain stores and price of food, most emerging countries food consumption requires about 50% of income, so it's a big hit that takes money out of other revenue streams. If I were a betting man, I'd say BS, to the notion of food inflation and short the thing b/c if food inflation were a monetary issue, Asian pegs could be relaxed, allowing the dollar to resume decent.
Supposedly the weaker dollar has made US food products cheaper, and so we should be the ones seeing higher prices as our exports increase.
US food products are cheaper on the world market with a lower dollar, that is.
ReplyDeleteI remember having 4th row tickets to Chicago in 1980 at Aloha Stadium. The weather was bad and it started raining before the concert was cancelled. I went with this local chick and there was another couple next two us as we were sitting in the rain with an umbrella. So I lit up this fat doobie and started to pass it around, my chick would not smoke and and the other chicks guy would not toke. After five minutes I told the other chick we should be going out together at least we have the fire by our lips. LOL
ReplyDeleteThose were the days.
Hmm, maybe emerging market water projects is something to consider about now, they're going to need to increase food production and that takes water... fertilizer, etc.
ReplyDeleteCVVT - One of the controversial Chinese plays, there are others and I'll see if I can locate them.
There is so many moving parts in metals, miners and soft commodities It is too difficult for me to trade. I have a better feel for oil, so that is my commodity of choice. With a miner you have to worry about, metal price, currency price, demand, supply, Chinese interest rates, growth. Us interest rates. The weather in Australia, The leverage of the company, production costs.Parts per ton. Yikes. TLT looks pretty good.
ReplyDeleteBig Ben has to. Just has to keep interest rates low. This is keeping our financial system a float. Where are property values going to go if the 30 year is at 7.5%? So high inflation and starving people be damned. He is not going to raise rates. He will buy bonds. Don't fight the Fed.
FF is that you. 1980s CTA is not 1970s CTA, but a great story. It would be better punchline if you said, "That other guys chick is now my Wife."
ReplyDeleteThat reminds me of a song.
http://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?p=el+rayo+x+you+tube
Here is the right song.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKfXw6IEWZ8&playnext=1&list=PL4A0D0ECA65F81E0E
Saw this headline on Bloomberg. Now these guys know how to fight inflation.
ReplyDelete"Vietnam Devalues Dong by a Record 7%,"
"Vietnam devalues donng by a record 7%"...I believe that happens to all men when they get married.
ReplyDeleteSorry I had to...
I see that whenever March futures for Russell 2000 have reached 812 this week, they got rejected off that resistance. Maybe it's time for them to finally go down big? I just placed a buy stop order for 1000 shares of TWM at $11.80/$11.82, just above the highest spikes it had over the past couple of days.
ReplyDeleteNo take on today's action. Doobie time.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Initially, we like the earnings.
ReplyDeleteGMO - I expected a weaker opening
Vietnam must not be too concerned about inflation.
ReplyDeleteTeam I think the biggest fear for married men is some sort of Dong Deflation.
ReplyDeleteTried to hop on RASy @ 2.26, but wasn't quick enough.
ReplyDeleteDong deflation has been successfully reversed with bong inhalation.
ReplyDeleteCP- Why did you expect GMO to take a hit today.
ReplyDeletePMI- GSE news.
NANO getting hit, but not as hard as I thought.
ReplyDeleteI read Bill Cara's take today. I kinda get the sense that he values his own opinion pretty highly.
ReplyDeleteHis take? SAM distribution, SEM accumulation.
ReplyDeletePMI - They like the new mortgage proposal.
ReplyDeleteMoved stop up to BE on RNOW.
ReplyDeleteCREE @ 53.91.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the odds BAC leads us out of this range we're in? I say they're strong to quite strong.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Are you stoned already? Hunnn???
ReplyDeletelook at that market spike up. What a surprise.
ReplyDeleteGuess I'm stoned, sorry, I read that as 'quiet'.
ReplyDeleteRNOW. Nice man.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Metals miners looking precarious.
ReplyDeleteVAERF.PK - Uranium plays gaining interest?
CMG proves yet again never short the Burrito.
ReplyDeleteBAC @ 14.50.
ReplyDeleteBack in APA @ 117.20
ReplyDeleteMark...little stoned...not much.
ReplyDeleteBout time BAC stepped it up to the plate. Now lets see a break above $14.8 and then the fireworks begin.
Added some more BAC at $14.62. Now have a 3/4 full position.
ReplyDeleteAnybody got the ticker for Egyptian shoes manufacturers?
ReplyDeleteha. good one CP. Financials have clearly started their next upleg in my opinion. Yesterdays jobless claims support this move.
ReplyDeleteValentines - Better get your roses, the import duty treaty expires Sunday.
ReplyDeleteValentine gift idea: Pet Madagascar hissing roach.
ReplyDeleteBAC still needs to break above $14.80 before the up move is confirmed.
ReplyDeleteAdding to my NTGR long if it breaks above $33.9
ReplyDeleteCP- I don't know. Who's going to walk the roach and clean the roach shit?
ReplyDeleteMore NTGR at $33.93
ReplyDeletehey Gents - back fresh from another 6E train wreck, nailed the moves perfectly, just got the timing and tightness of the stops wrong, lost over $2k and blew over $5k of upside, is suicide always wrong?
ReplyDeleteon an unrelated note: am I am wet? anyone following PIO or PHO? looks like I am late for sure but all this weather/egypt stuff has me focused on water again
Time to blow the shorts out of the water.
ReplyDeleteRe: predictably irrational newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5256 comments) on Fri, 02/11/2011 - 10:58 #79584 (in reply to #79582)
ReplyDeleteI think they shock-and-awe the bears today.
GL guys, got to jump.
ReplyDelete14.70 is R2 for BAC today.
ReplyDeleteNice. There goes APA :)...Now I'm out.
ReplyDeleteMubarak gone!
ReplyDelete2nd - It's the thought that counts, what could possibly say "I love you" and display deeper level of thought than a gift of such a unique stature?
ReplyDeleteDon't knock it till you've tried it, there's no better way of showing romantic affection.
"Madagascar Hissing Cockroaches
Madagascar hissing cockroaches come from the island Madagascar. They are one of the most popular pet roaches around.
Care
Hissing cockroaches are easy to care for. This pet roach is one of the most interesting of them also. First you want to get something that is large enough for them and have a little bit of bark, egg crates or something else for them to hide in. They are climbers so it is a good idea to spread about 2 inches of vasaline around the edges of your cage as they can not climb past this. Some kind of substrate like eco earth or other dirt like substance you can buy at a pet shop.
http://www.madagascarhissingroach.com/
Long RDN at $8.00. The TIMMY trade.
ReplyDeleteJust trying to help my friends a little at a time with helpful suggestions. Like respect, success is only achieved over time, you know.
ReplyDeleteBuying more Bacon. Adding to SFD at 23.20
ReplyDelete2nd - Your 1,350 is coming up next week.
ReplyDeleteAnyone get the sense that the top callers are the same people that were the bottom callers from mid 2008 to the beginning of 2009, only to throw in the towel at the bottom? It's gonna happen again...
PIO/PHO - Perhaps we could dissect and extract specific components, targeting China/India(others?)?
ReplyDeleteIWM hit a new high, so my stop to sell 1000 shares TWM at 11.42 got executed. May be a fake will be watching it closely.
ReplyDeleteI vividly remember listening to a guy saying on CNBC at the exact bottom that he and his team went through all of the possibile positive things in the market and they couldn't come up with anything. When we hear someone saying that there is absolutely nothing negative in the markets then we should probably all run for the hills. I can picture it now:
ReplyDeleteWe had Dubai, Greece, Double dip fears, Egypt, riots in Tunisia, massive food inflation...and nothing took this market down. So we don't see any reason for it to go down. I want to hear a chorus of people saying that and hear all of the remaining bears (Kass, SOH, etc) completely throw in the towel.
Well, now we can say the last thing Mubarak did was the right thing to do.
ReplyDeleteCP - I don't know, maybe it makes better sense to craft ones own basket, but I'm lazy so I was looking for someone else to do all the hard work! still I think water, on a global basis, will outstrip Oil as the commodity which is most sought after, and sooner than people expect.
ReplyDeleteUltimate doozy: we close red today.
ReplyDeletei'm not calling it but that would be f'd up.
ReplyDeleteTrailing FNSR stop to 5% pullback.
ReplyDeletetof - whether it's today or next whenever, we are going down 10%-15% (I'm leaning toward 15%+, more severe correction than expected), it just seems impossible to figure out WHEN it's gonna happen.
ReplyDeleteRe: CYSCO newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5257 comments) on Fri, 02/11/2011 - 11:45 #79594 (in reply to #79568)
ReplyDeletebigwad- I channeled this one from the spring of 2012:
San Francisco companies Cisco and Sysco will merge to form the penultimate company for Gen Z- working while surfing. Remote tablet commuting/conferencing have redefined worksites as ‘wherever,’ and workplace communications as ‘whatever.’
CSCO will provide the connectivity, SYY the empty calories. Demand for routers and sliders by a new generation of Cysco Kids is expected to drive the share price of the combined operation pretty much to the moon, baby and we rate the stock a Strong Screaming Buy!
Actually, I wanted to say a Strong ---ing Buy, but can't do that on the other site.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine a red close today, perhaps a new high on the Egypt news?
ReplyDeleteI expect liberation to have a lasting positive effect on sentiment, it has carried us for a multiple generations.
I remember walking around in Israel, it's such a strange feeling when there are armed forces on the streets, I think the youth will be making further demands in favor of choice throughout the mid-east, and they're bound to get their way. The Taliban had better align themselves as well, the people want freedom and the momentum is building.
(insert DEVO song here)
US Consumer sentiment up, trade gap widens.
ReplyDeleteI got stopped out of my TWM position as well today at $11.40. Won't be getting back to it until IWM breaks below the previous high at $80.5.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I saw that FCX formed kind of a support level at $53.xx and wasn't going below it, so I just closed at $53.70 the 500 short shares I opened at $54.50. My only profit on the short side so far!
Finally, I figured that if the market is not collapsing yet, then it is going higher. And so I just placed a buy limit order for 7000 more shares of ECUXF at the current bid $1.11 -- let's see if someone sells them to me...
Although, it might be a good idea though to tighten stops or trim positions that are in an overbought zone.
ReplyDeleteI'm just not too worried about my positions at this point, I believe they have underperformed lately in comparison and my basis gives me a huge cushion.
Gold - Still can't make up it's mind, consolidation to eternity until you've fallen completely asleep into a deep trance, then you blink and BAM!
OK, screw it -- just flipped the pancake and BOUGHT 500 shares of FCX at $53.35 and placed a sell stop at $52.75, just below its spike low a couple of days ago.
ReplyDeleteOn this day, Feb 11th, 1861, Lincoln departs Springfield Illinois to assume office of president of United States in Washington DC.
ReplyDeleteBought 100 more shares of FCX at $53.17
ReplyDeleteJB - "it just seems impossible to figure out WHEN it's gonna happen."
ReplyDeleteIt happens when you least expect it and are least prepared. ;)
Long 5 x AKAM March $40 calls at $3.
ReplyDeleteFCX - recently executed a reverse split:
ReplyDeleteFeb 2nd 2011 - Splits Calendar: Freeport-McMoRan splits before market open today (2:1 ratio)
I think AKAM tests $46.80 which was prior support within the next month. I read through their earnings report and there was nothing disturbing about it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I want to make back the $800 I lost on AKAM after buying the first dip AH after the earnings release.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm a little bitter.
BAC just touched the trend line coming down from the April highs through the January highs. It needs to break through $14.80 to confirm the breakout.
ReplyDeleteNokia? -16%!
ReplyDeleteEMKR- Can't remember why this one was on my watch list. Too bad :)
ReplyDeleteMan, I sure am glad I don't own any of those speculative large caps!
ReplyDeleteJB- Couldn't agree more regarding water. Do the friging homework on it so I can sponge off of you.
ReplyDeleteThis market is such a nebulous animal, large caps more volatile than small caps, up is down and down is up.
ReplyDelete(insert Moody Blues song here)
RB- Do you know jack about RDN? I might follow you on that one.
ReplyDeleteLooks like FCX has reversed its intraday decline and is now headed higher. So I have just moved up my sell stop to $53.15, just below its recent intraday low.
ReplyDeleteMight be time for a little UCO boys.
ReplyDeleteSomeone is not happy about ECU.TO -- they sold me 7000 shares at $1.11 and took it down even more. This is strange considering GDXJ is up today. Maybe I'll buy even more of it now...
ReplyDeleteRAS about to break out again. Oh my!
ReplyDeleteBAC breaking out.
ReplyDeletePlaced a GTC sell limit order at $1.21 for the 7000 shares of ECUXF I just picked up at $1.11.
ReplyDeleteRDN- OK, I get it. In @ 7.99.
ReplyDeleteAnyone not in BAC I'd suggest buying at $14.90 and using $14.6 as a stop out...low risk trade.
ReplyDeleteThe channel from December on BAC suggests an upside target of about $17.
ReplyDeleteBCON find a bottom? Les guna be partying tonight with his 1000K shares.
ReplyDeleteQPSA is on my watch list now. I really like the valuation on this one.
ReplyDeleteNOK?
ReplyDeleteMark.
ReplyDeleteRDN All I know is I chased a stock on a news related event. That always works out right? Oh by the way a 12% short float. MGIC is more of a trader favorite in that space.
JDSU. Fing unreal.
ReplyDeleteRB- Thanks. Just wanted to make sure you picked the right symbol. Good work!!
ReplyDeleteSymbol for MGIC is MTG
ReplyDeleteDavid - I like your call on FCX.. I highly doubt it stays down here for long.
ReplyDeleteJDSU Holy smokes. Why did I go with the poor step child FNSR.
ReplyDeleteAdded 7 more AKAM March $40 calls at $3.05
ReplyDeleteAdded final 6 calls of AKAM $40 March calls at $3.05. Total of 18 calls at $3.04 avg price.
ReplyDeleteSetting up 2 LT strategic trades.
ReplyDeleteLong UNG, GTC @ .01
Long VXX, GTC @ .02
Let's see which hits first.
FCX - I'm counting big time on some metals strength, this is really getting under my skin so it must be right!?!!@#$#!!!
ReplyDeleteFD: Long GMO and ready to get longer and longer, and longer as necessary.
Kinda thought the floor might pop crude a little. I'll wait till Monday.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile RAS leaves planet Earth with an empty seat. %$##%&&^%%$!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWeeeeee!!!! CREE!!!!
ReplyDeleteMark > Look away from the screen with the RAS prices on it.
ReplyDeleteNo worries, I think Ras will hit resistance at $10.00.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I see it. Looking harder @ NOK.
ReplyDeleteNOK @ 9.13.
ReplyDeleteSHIT! There it goes!!!
ReplyDeleteGo NOKo ono!!!
ReplyDeleteRB now I'm pissed at you. That is an evil thing to say.
ReplyDeleteCLosed my NTGR at $34.12.
APA trying to break out.
ReplyDeleteSaint Valentine's SPX 1350 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5258 comments) on Fri, 02/11/2011 - 15:25 #79611
ReplyDeleteSending arrows through the hearts of bears everywhere.
Crap! There going to talk about my NOKer on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteEmpty seat? I thought Mark/tof climbed back in to the iRAScible this morning.
ReplyDelete2nd > its an empty seater.
ReplyDeleteIf history is any guide, AKAM closes its gap at some point over the next couple of weeks. LVS is looking to be on its way to doing this very thing.
2nd- Nope. I tried to board @ 3.26 and the train ran over my bid.
ReplyDeleteNow TRE is trying to get in the game!!
ReplyDelete----! I was getting ready to write another post about getting back behind the wheel after a long night of hard drinking.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I could get back into the BACmobile myself.
ReplyDeleteTRE- Ah, Geier Capital has 8M shares.
ReplyDeleteBought 500 CSCO shares in my SAP IRA account, that is 50% of my target.
ReplyDeleteBUY imbalances favor the financials and NOK. I kid you not.
ReplyDeleteBACroom boogie-woogie!
ReplyDeleteAdding to BAC @ 14.75. Not really pleased with what could be a failed breakout, so we'll see.
ReplyDeleteNOK-NOK Who's there? I'm a large cap, nobody can value me, I take your money!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHey guys, my MSFT Explorer has so many script errors it's nearly useless. When does MSFT ever publish a release that meets user expectation????
I'm still waiting!!!!!
Mark nice knife catch on that Nokia. Do you use any cheating screen aids to help you with that circus act or was it round # resistance. I'm guessing no deal with MSFT caused that carnage? Or probably worse the sell off may have been due to an ACTUAL deal with MSFT.
ReplyDeleteSince I didn't get stopped out of my 600 shares of FCX today, I decided to lower my stop once again to $52.75 (just below its recent spike lows over the past few days) and give it some room to run to the upside.
ReplyDeleteMicrosoft Works Spreadsheet: It recalculates when it damn-well pleases, not when you press enter.
ReplyDeleteie: It sucks too, Mr. Softy!!!!
Mark > we'll see if that's a failed breakout on BAC. Was searching around and some technical analysts were saying $14.7 was the buy in point. So technically it could be a technical breakout.
ReplyDeletebah dum bum.
I'll be here all night.
QCOM - Yet another 52 week high...
ReplyDeleteI am thinking that I should stop screwing with this market, close my last short position (VXX) and turn off my computer for a year. Gold will be higher in a year, right? And so will ECU.TO. This is the only way for me to make some real money this year (bet on ECU.TO doubling), as opposed to keep getting stopped out of counter-trend short positions (which is a good practice, actually, but it is becoming expensive for me...)
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, such an exhaustion for me of even *thinking* about opening new shorts must mean we are REALLY close to the top. I have no shorts for Monday save a small position in VXX, so watch out guys!
But whatever doesn't kill us, makes us stronger. I can say that I learned a lot from my repeated attempts to fight against the trend. In February 2009, I was sure that the market panic was temporary, but my way of fighting it was too dangerous (scaling into ultrashort shorts), since the market stayed irrational longer than I could remain solvent, I started getting margin calls and I had to close my ultrashort shorts right at the very bottom, to the day. I did switch into 3X ultralongs at that point, but if I had been SCALING INTO 3x ultralongs in February instead, I would have made much more money.
ReplyDeleteSo then, when I decided that it is time to SHORT the new market rally in the summer of 2009, I started doing that not by shorting 3X ultralongs, but instead by scaling into ultrashorts. This helped me to avoid any margin calls, but still created a lot of damage to my portfolio. My short bias was "proven right" in January 2010, and so at the end of January I started scaling into ultrashorts as well, only to get impaled on a non-stop 3 month advance into April highs. By some miracle, I didn't stop myself out at the end of April but instead switched into 3X ultrashorts, and was able to make back in May all the money I lost on the short side in 2009-2010. By another miracle, I closed all my shorts in July 2010, became fully long, and rode the current rally until October. At that point I decided that it went too far and sold many of my longs. That didn't hurt my portfolio too much as I still kept making money on the long side, and thanks to a moonshot in ECU.TO my portfolio finished at an all-time high in 2010.
So now, in January 2011, when I figured that it is time to short the market, I was doing so much more carefully, with stops and with small put option positions instead of ultrashorts, and as a result I probably lost so far at most 2% of my portfolio as a result of such repeated shorting attempts. I think that's a real progress already.
The next stage, I guess, will be to realize that I should not play counter trend AT ALL and instead use stops to go with the trend, on the RIGHT side of the V. I probably would not have worked up enough of respect for stops if I only played with the trend, since most of the time they would have worked to my disadvantage. But my repeated attempts to play AGAINST the trend have really improved my mastery over placing stops and then accepting minor losses when getting stopped out. So now, with this mastery, I will hopefully be able to start making money much more steadily without large drawdowns in my port.
David - Great write up. I like reading what you're thinking.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I always here is to wait until the trend changes before shorting/going long. I've come to the conclusion while this is clearly true, the only way we can do this is by waiting for the stock/index/whatever to trade below its 200 DMA, then bounce back up to the 200 DMA. At that point you can initiate a short position. However, you have to take a litmus test of the stock/index that you're trading to understand if it is really in a bear market. For the most part, the first dip below the 200 DMA is NOT (insert bold and underline) the point at which you can short. On the whole, most charts that show this pattern tend to regain strength and then make a move higher. That's one of the many reasons why I was thinking it was wrong to be bearish on the market back in August.
While the markets and stocks are different at every point in time, human beings psychology doesn't change. Short term traders trade momentum and people buy dips until they all recognize that the trend has changed. This is what causes tops in stocks/markets to generally be a long process. It's rare to catch a big move in a short time frame...with the exception of RAS (mother f'er)...or REDF. Speaking of which I am salivating at the prospect of REDF getting to $5.
here = hear
ReplyDeleteBoy I'm beat tonight, looking forward to taking it easy for a couple of days.
ReplyDelete2 firms released 13G's today on BCON. The combined shares held are 14% of the float. GS is one of the firms. That might really create some interest.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Great look back! Like TOF, much enjoyed.
Me? I'm here to supply the fart jokes.
Trendtrading; David I am trying my hardest to use the chart and go with the trend. It has been working. Since we are in a trending market of coarse. I would be a liar if i said I don't have frequent relapses, but for the most part i buy stocks in up trends. First step in your rehab. Find stocks at their 52 week highs and buy them. Not on pullbacks. On their high print of the year and see what happens. it is not as crazy as it sounds. Stocks do not have memorys and they have no idea that you lost this much at that price or you made this much at another price. The stocks don't know shit. How many times has Open made a new high just this year. Each time it was a screaming buy.
ReplyDeleteMark mentioned this Guy Brian Shannon at alphtrends. i think this is a good resource for your transformation. He has two free shows where he goes over the market and some picks with T/A in multiple time frames. he does this in a very mild mannered, matter a fact way. These really help me stay on a even plane especially in real volatile markets. i recommend watching him. He uses simple methods that help determine trend.
http://www.alphatrends.net/
RB- No magic tricks. I just watch a 3 min. chart and then move to a tick chart for entry on those type of plays. Keeping an eye on the level II quotes, of course.
ReplyDeleteMark I dont understand one word of your last post other than Fart joke. Can you translate. I mean the words not the farts.
ReplyDeleteGuys - any of you investing in these Chinese companies that are in the midst of those fraud allegations? I'm thinking that given the media coverage in these, there are definitely some diamonds in the rough. ONP for example may be one. Any others that you guys are following?
ReplyDeleteThanks, RoBear, for your take on buying breakouts to new highs. I'll start paying attention to that.
ReplyDeleteRB- OK, let me post a chart. Be back.
ReplyDeleteWPRT @ 12.12 AH. Cramer is going to interview the CEO. I follow this Co. Let's see if I get lucky.
ReplyDeleteTOF - I'm hearing that YONG doesn't deserve the the negative attention. This same source hasn't said anything about CCME, nor have they defended any of the losers as far as I recall. I haven't done any DD on YONG personally, you know which one I'm following.
ReplyDeletehttp://china.fixyou.co.uk/2011/02/yongye-international-yong-truly-good.html?showComment=1297467687541#c6396841916069214715
Water plays - Okay guys, I had a potential lead to run some DD on and lost track of it since, but I'll look back through my notes once I regain some energy.
ReplyDeleteStay tuned
PCAR - Mark, what the hell!?!?!
ReplyDeleteCYD - Looks like a good potential entry. Some degree of DD should be performed in advance though, and I haven't done any.
ReplyDeleteChina Stocks - Another angle to consider might involve selecting companies that are multinationals and have attached themselves to Chinese growth, such as IMAX is doing.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I believe there are some Chinese state owned companies listed that might be another effective approach, assuming we can identify and actually purchase them.
ACMR looking like a buy..
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete