Sunday, February 13, 2011
2/13/11 Purple Heather
Well the summertime has gone
And the leaves are gently turnin'
And my love I wanna take you
To the place heart-a-yearnin'
Will you go, lassie go
And we'll all go together
In the wild mountain thyme
All around the blooming heather
Will you go
And I will build my love a tower
At the foot of yonder mountain
And visit by the hour
From a lonely wooden tower
Will you go, lassie go
And we'll all go together
In the wild mountain thyme
All around the blooming heather
Come on
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Deadsville in the futes.
ReplyDeletejb- I just started working with a company that uses salesforce.com to document all sales activities. I notice the company was founded by an ex-Oracle executive.
ReplyDeleteDamn- A Severe Weather Alert for the Bay Area. A series of storms/rain for the next several days.
ReplyDeleteDon't try and scare me out of my shorts 2nd!
ReplyDeleteNOK news!!
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nokia-CEO-Co-to-get-billions-apf-3533807834.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Damn, I really hope I can hold onto this sucker for a while. It's just to much fun :)
I plan to await the next sell-off before opening any positions.
ReplyDelete2nd - You're waiting until May?
ReplyDelete2nd_ave said...
ReplyDelete"I plan to await the next sell-off before opening any positions."
This has been my plan for the last 2 months...
CP -- thanks for bringing uranium to our attention. I just looked at the uranium 10-year price chart at http://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?z=f&g=127677&dr=10y and it damn looks like it is in the early stages of a second parabolic rise, which will most likely take it above the previous high.
ReplyDeleteNow throw in the fact that Natty should start going up in 2H2011, which should dash the last hopes for cheap electricity and provide yet another long-term push up for uranium. So now CCJ is officially the second stock I am dying to buy during the next market correction, with the first one being MON (the food prices will likely stay high for at least another year, and so MON is in an obvious long-term uptrend AND is still in a value region, coming off a multi-year low).
That correction will most likely arrive this week, since last week I closed all my short positions (except for a small "junky" position in VXX) and even "flipped the pancake" by going long FCX instead of being short it).
David- I'll refine your Natty call to late 3Q2011...If I may :)
ReplyDeleteBTW- I'm doing some rig count work and will post maybe tomorrow. Good stuff.
Guys- I've worked all day on the HAWK/HERO deal BK. I can't see any scenario where HAWK isn't worth at LEAST $6 per share. Yes, I'm a pin head, but that doesn't mean we cant trade it. The arb's have to have been working on this all weekend. let's see if we can play along. I'll buy HWAK on a second panic dip if can @ sub $4.
ReplyDeleteMark: HAWK seems to have a solid support at $7 -- how in the world are you going to get it sub $4???
ReplyDelete“They invented an inflation ETF. It’s called the S&P 500″ – Joshua Brown
ReplyDeleteThe reason for a continued uptrend a bull might say.
David- HAWK filled for chapter 11 AH Friday and has a bid from HERO that amounts to 100M. 1.9 shares of HERO for every share of HAWK plus 20 +/- M in cash, with an agreement for another 25M if needed to clear operating debit. The key will be how the market prices HAWK's potential liabilities that came from the spin off from Pride. There is also an outstanding tax issue with Mexico, but that's pennies.
ReplyDeleteHAWK traded sub $4 AH on Friday.
Some comments between port and I via email...
ReplyDeleteMark-
Guys- I've worked all day on the HAWK/HERO deal BK. I can't see any scenario where HAWK isn't worth at LEAST $6 per share. Yes, I'm a pin head, but that doesn't mean we cant trade it. The arb's have to have been working on this all weekend. let's see if we can play along. I'll buy HWAK on a second panic dip if can @ sub $4.
Port-
A buddy of mine has been focused on HERO for about 5 months now and he called me yesterday about the deal. He hasn’t had time to read everything yet but his first take is that things sound a bit fishy, at least for the HAWK shareholders. I’ll follow up with a post tomorrow night because I’m sure he’ll be reading up on it tomorrow at work.
I came soooo close to buying a few shares of HAWK last week. I did buy some HERO at $3.56 and I sold the July 3.50 calls for $.60. That’s a 14% return if the company doesn’t go bankrupt.
Mark-
Yep. Something stinks here. The question is how bad. The tax issue with Mexico, doubt it now that they are BK. Liabilities back to the Pride spin off? That might be the clue. No doubt HAWK wanted the fuck out, and HERO only has 50% of their rigs in use. What the hell do they want 20 more with only 7 in use? Stinks to high hell. That's why there is a play here.
Mark, Thats some risky shit. Hero's share will get hit and who is going to keep them out of BR. I know thats not your concern. Your in for the trade. I noticed only 65K traded after hours on hawk. I wonder what will be the price PM. I like the idea of this type of trade. i just don't have any guts. I will be watching with great interest.
ReplyDeleteHey Mark - tons of ex-ORCL guy's out there. I still believe CRM will get taken out, despite it's valuation.
ReplyDeleteHAWK - $3.37
ReplyDeletepicked up mar $60 qqqq puts 2.02 and yrcw 4.59 at the open. Will scale out of inverses into more puts should market continue higher. Just received some data regarding OEX hedgers moving into put options in a big way.
ReplyDeleteVAE.V - +7.8%
ReplyDeleteWPRT- Off @ 15.65. Easy money.
ReplyDeleteYRCW - $3.58
ReplyDeleteCAST - Green
ReplyDeleteRDN off @ 7.84. You gona keep this one RB?
ReplyDeleteAKAM March calls looking good. I think it retests the $46.8 support level from before earnings.
ReplyDeleteWhy didn't I follow David into FCX? Was thinking of getting some calls on Friday. Great trade David.
I'm out at 7.81 I hate mortage insurance.
ReplyDeleteTax question: is 2/15 the date which the turbo tax and tax act s/w programs are updated with the final info from last years tax bill? I'm actually getting a refund (so either I've done something wrong, or there is some provision which will get updated in the final release which will reverse my apparent good fortune).
ReplyDeletethx
cut YRCW at a .04 loss. Added Q puts at 2.00 and 1.92. Have a bid for more at 1.89 as I call it a night here in Phuket.
ReplyDeleteMeant to add that I sold QID -.02 and SDS even to offset risk as I scale into puts.
ReplyDeleteHAWK - $4.75
ReplyDeleteEMKR OPXT Put those on your watch list Spec names in fnsr space. Give me band width.
ReplyDeleteJB - If in doubt, send it out! If it's outta whack, it'll be back.
ReplyDeleteI'm such a Fing wuss.Had the HAWK trade nailed and couldn't pull the trigger.
ReplyDeleteCP - LMAO! great strategy... :)
ReplyDeleteJeez...lots of money being made on HAWK today.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, has anyone considered the possibility that corporate profits could be awesome for a while given the tailwinds from the Baby Boomers retiring and being replaced by a younger generation of workers that are cheaper to hire?
XLE. Not a single red bar yet on my 3min chart.
ReplyDeleteNOK off @ 7.81. Look to get back in. Way too much pressure still.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Same old trick weakness on opening?
ReplyDeleteHa! 8.91 obviously.
ReplyDeleteCorporate profits - Add emerging market demand growth to the list as well.
ReplyDeleteOK, trying NOK @ 8.75. S2.
ReplyDeleteEMKR- Yeah, another one I posted a while back. I'm just to busy Fing around with NOKer to jump on a winner >)
ReplyDeleteThink of it this way: Maybe the big boys know that consumption demand is about to go parabolic, so they engineer a panic in order to load their boats cheap just before lift-off?
ReplyDeleteEMKR - There must be hundreds of thousands of fabs that make IC's... Pick one?
ReplyDeleteURRE is interesting in the Uranium space.
ReplyDeleteRBY- Ut oh.
ReplyDeleteURRE - Thanks for looking at that one, it's one I've been referencing on and off for a couple of years. Every time I look it's moved up again.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Amended technical report?
ReplyDeleteMy kind of guy!
ReplyDelete"Wayne Rogers: Optimistic despite the "infinite stupidity" of DC "morons""
Uranium - DNN/DML.V / VAE.V/VAERF.PK are partners on some high-profile projects.
ReplyDeleteLater gators.
ReplyDeleteWhy am I getting the feeling we're gonna get a nasty correction?
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking like down 3 S&P's and 40 DJIA.
ReplyDeletePMI - Earnings report tomorrow morning. Looks like expectations are running low, probably based on previous mortgage insurer earnings reports.
ReplyDeleteif you guys want a true flier on uranium, check out CHGI. it's an OTC stock but the chart looks fantastic and their fundamentals are pretty solid.
ReplyDeleteCP -- good guts on that HAWK trade! You added on the way up and your position is still positive!
ReplyDeleteDavid - I was just posting prices, Mark had said he was considering an entry under $4 so I thought I'd watch pre-market.
ReplyDeleteI don't have enough guts to enter any BK announcement.
Happy Valentine's Day, everyone! :)
ReplyDeleteI got a nice gift today, once I woke up and ... checked the market. :) My gut call on closing my FCX short on Friday and instead going long 600 shares at $53.34 worked out well -- just sold those 600 shares at $55.90, and will now use the $1.5K I made "out of thin air" on the long side for the Valentine's day evening tonight. :)
I shudder to think what kind of mood I would be in now if I hadn't closed my FCX short on Friday, and instead of a nice gain I would be sitting on a big loss...
TOF - CHGI - China Carbon Graphite?
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think an FCX short unwise unless it's trading near the top of it's channel and failed to break through.
ReplyDeleteMosquito gold halted at company request. ???
ReplyDeleteMaybe we can expect sideways trading until RSI's are worked back down or the next shoe is thrown?
ReplyDeleteCP > Yeah CHGI makes components that go into the Nuclear reactors. Graphite is extremely heat resistant...plus it is used extensively in Lithium Ion batteries:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/244201-graphite-a-diamond-in-the-rough-for-investors
Looks like there is a heavy resistance for FCX at $56, so I have just shorted 500 shares at $55.98 and placed a buy to cover stop at $56.10, just for fun. :)
ReplyDeleteCAST - Broken leg?
ReplyDeleteTOF - Ah yes, not the uranium itself but components for the reactors + (shitloadsofotherstuff). It's a great strategy. ;)
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my 500 short shares of FCX at $56.10, giving back $50 out of $1500 I made on FCX overnight. Oh well, that was a fair attempt. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - curious: why would you sell your FCX long? The stock looks great and you got in at a great price.
ReplyDeleteCP > I only have about 4500 shares of CHGI but I'm considering adding some more. I really like the chart and the story behind it.
ReplyDeleteTOF: I just wanted to book profit for the Valentine's day. :)
ReplyDeleteFinally, I have enough exposure to the metals already, and so it's not like I'll be missing out on the renewed strength in the metals...
CADC - During their conference call, they mentioned they expect to be announcing additional contracts in the near future.
ReplyDeleteAside from railroads and airports, nuclear plants use plenty of concrete too.
Man, the *middle* part of my reply to TOF has disappeared!
ReplyDeleteI was saying that during their latest earnings announcement, FCX said that their margins will be squeezed going forward due, and THAT'S why FCX sold off after the announcement and has been making lower highs despite copper making new highs. So it is *not* a strong stock now.
FCX, ditto to TOF's comment to David. If you wanted to book profits, why not sell half and at least give the other half a chance. The chart looks great short term and RIO keeps talking about a supply deficit in copper.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I like WPRT and also bought Fri at 15.12 that which I had sold at 18.96. With today's pop I sold half at 15.84 and will give the rest a chance to run. This stock has a lot of potential.
I think it is important to make a distinction between thematic versus tactical or investing versus trading. The really big money is made by getting a few themes (stocks) right and letting it ride the meat of the trend. Constant trading is blocking at the offense vs defense line.
That said it is all easier said than done. Sometimes (many) times the hardest thing to do is just sit on your hands.
MOTR, have been in and out of this thing 10 times this year, what a bungee stock, long.
CHGI.OB - I'll take a closer look to see if they manufacture strictly pure carbon components, or a family of products based on carbon technologies.
ReplyDeleteSilicon Carbide - (SiC) This alloy is physically stronger than carbon and nearly as capable of accepting heat. There are other various carbon applications, some as simple as brake shoe linings, others used in missiles and rockets, etc.
There's an an endless list of stuff they might eventually be capable of making.
Picked another 500 shares of CSCO at 18.85 this morning for my SAP IRA. Now I have a 1000 shares at an average price of 18.75. Hopefully CSCO beats Fidelity Contrafund with this entry price.
ReplyDeleteJust to have some exposure to uranium with a limited downside potential, I just purchased one June 2011 $40 call on CCJ for $5.90. Let's see how RoBear's suggestion of buying breakouts to new highs will work out. :)
ReplyDeleteWhile I am at it, I just bought one July 2011 $75 call on MON for $5.80. Now I won't feel like I will miss out on the continued upside in the two stocks I was targeting: CCJ and MON. If the market correction does materialize soon, I'll sell puts on these stocks and will cover the cost of the calls I purchased today.
ReplyDeleteTarget on S&P of 1,332 was essentially reached today.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 100 shares of VXX at $27.91 -- if history is any guide, VIX won't stay below $16 for much longer.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually getting a feeling we see a pullback here. Let's think about this a little more:
ReplyDeleteEveryone knows how long the run has been...it's been for way longer than any market historian has seen in their lifetime. Pretty much every bear has been blown out of the water and got completely hosed since getting bearish again after Egypt. The market has since run from 1276 to 1332 in that short time span. Now everyone is bullish longer term...some are still waiting for the pullback but they think we're going higher. Now the possibility of Birinyi's targets actually become rational. They can make a case for it.
Wouldn't this be the time for a pullback? And a pretty sharp one?
Screw it...sold all of my longs. Bought 20 SPY March $136 Puts at $3.95. Leaving the rest in cash as I wait for the pullback
ReplyDeleteMaybe NOK will fill it's 8.57 gap. The thing must have a 8% yield at this price.
ReplyDeleteI think we get a short term Cramer top here for the market right when he comes on with his stop trading segment.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I agree. I was thinking about it last night. I've had way to many winners in a row. So, I took off BAC/CREE/APA a few minutes ago. I'm at all time highs right now and want to play it a little safer here.
ReplyDeleteTOF - David told me that you are the REIT expert. I have been looking at Analy Capital Management (NLY). 2011 pick by Bill Gross for income generation. The yield on the REIT is 14% currently. It buys MBS's secured by Fannie and Freddie and leverages by taking short term REPO market debt at low rates. Would love to hear your opinion since 14% looks pretty attractive
ReplyDeleteDavid, 6 of the 9 stocks on my buy watch list brokeout 5 I believe are at new highs. My friggin job got in the way of me trading. Checkout ARMH PXD FXEN HYC EMKR BSQR. Very irritated. I need a night job. I like your Uranium trade.
ReplyDeleteTeam, mark Why would we have a pullback we have been straight up like 1084 days in a row. Wehave more room for upside. Back to work.
TOF -- I totally agree with your reasoning about a pullback now. However, I remember there were SO many times when this reasoning implied an imminent pullback that didn't happen, that we probably should not rely on that reasoning alone. I'll wait for the pullback to actually start before jumping in heavily on the short side.
ReplyDeleteSeeing a nice intraday pullback we got in CCJ, I just bought 200 shares at $43.50 and placed a sell stop limit at $42.50/$42.
David - I agree it's dumb to short here...wait for the pullback. I just moved to cash and took a small flier out on the outside chance that I can actually be lucky and time the top. If not, I'll close out in a day or two. But what the hell is going to keep pushing the NFLX, AAPL, QCOM, ARMH, CAT, etc boats higher? Seriously...I mean those are some parabolic looking charts.
ReplyDeleteLook at the monthly chart on CAT. Holy parabolic move...no?
ReplyDeleteSeeing such a nice trading setup in CCJ, I just sold at $5.30 the call I purchased at $5.80 and will instead now rely on the 200 shares I picked up and the stop I placed for them.
ReplyDeleteIgor > REIT expert? Surely you jest. I sold RAS at $2.95 only to watch it skyrocket to $3.7!
ReplyDeleteI liked REITs because the economy is turning around, rental rates and occupancy rates are rising, and inflation is on the rise. Not sure about NLY though. They have a different business model...one I believe if memory serves me correctly that is built on buying government securities and what not...not really sure. What if the gov moves to a more private backed market? How does that impact their business model? I don't know the answer to that but I think that's the one to ask if you are looking to invest in them.
MT - Having trouble keeping up with the steelers.
ReplyDeleteDamn, I *knew* that shorting FCX at $56 was a good idea. Why didn't I jump back into that short once FCX broke below $56??? I have already posted here several times the words of Alexander Elder about professionals not minding taking several shots at the trade they like before nailing it, and now I didn't follow this wisdom myself! Will try to be more open to it in the future...
ReplyDeleteNOK @ 8.81. I know, I know....
ReplyDeletethere's 1,332..was that the price target?
ReplyDeleteContinuing with the stupid theme, I decided to buy 20 x SPY $134 Puts expiring this Friday at $1.04 in the odd chance that the target of 1,332 was a short term top and will induce a selloff.
ReplyDeleteNLY - A few things I've noticed about this one are that 1) It's a dividend horse. 2) When it reaches $18, they issue new shares and a panic ensues. 3) Always buy the panic.
ReplyDeleteThey make their best dividend when the Treasury rate curve is steep, they own GSE MBS's, which are guaranteed for both mortgage and principle.
The IRS tax rate is higher on MREIT dividend gains than other trading gains/divs.
FCX - Metals are attempting to convince everyone they're headed into the mote since beginning this year and end of last, while copper keeps moving up. I still believe metals will soon/eventually break though this phase, but not until everyone throws up their hands and walks away from the trade or I lose my ass.
ReplyDeleteOk...added 10 more SPY $136 Puts at $3.88.
ReplyDeleteI'm done with the attempt at calling a top. I have about $13k in puts and don't really want to lose more than a few grand in this dumb trading move.
NOK off @ 8.82. Not moving.
ReplyDeleteI been meandering down the COW lane for almost two weeks and it didn't get me anywhere. Then I spotted this highway carrying not only meat but other produce as well. I got on the RJA road today because not only is it headed north but it looks like it is a lot faster.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder BTU and commodities are spiking...here's the headline from NYTimes:
ReplyDelete"Unrest Spreads Across the Mideast"
Should have stuck with BTU...
This Rogers Intl Commodity Highway (HiWay RJA) feels good compared to the COW Path. Matter of fact, I heard that cows don't even follow the COW Path. See SA article titled " Here's the Beef: Cattle Prices Hit Record Highs".
ReplyDeleteillini- I know a few cattle ranchers here, and it's true.
ReplyDeleteImbabalances favor the finanacials.
ReplyDeleteIf it's spelled "COW", smells like a cow, and sounds like a cow, it's still not a cow until it hits the trail along with the herd. ;)
ReplyDeleteMarket seems stuck. Can someone hit the turntable.
ReplyDelete1333.33 tomorrow?????
ReplyDeleteMark - What's a bambalance?
ReplyDeleteLooks like I managed to sell BAC at just the wrong time. However, I'm planning on take a small stake in the company tomorrow most likely as part of my plan to build a long term position in the company.
ReplyDeleteThat is...assuming the market doesn't tank on us tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteCP- The opposite of an imbambalance :)
ReplyDeleteHow's this for a shitty end of the day. I had an order in for 1000 SDS @ 21.03 at the close and 25 Fing shares filled. Great...
Closed out the day with a +.55% return.
ReplyDeleteWTF is up with the SPY after hours. It has tanked.
ReplyDeleteSDS...Now the thing is trading @ 20.10. Unreal.
ReplyDelete"How's this for a shitty end of the day. I had an order in for 1000 SDS @ 21.03 at the close and 25 Fing shares filled. Great... "
ReplyDeleteMark - hey look at it this way, if the market commences it's crash then you can say you called the top.
GMO - That sure was a long, strange, $0.10 trip again today.
ReplyDeletePretty big volume still in SPY.
ReplyDeleteNok dissappointed me. Traded 100 million shares and ranged 18 cents. If no rebound action tommorrow, I could see this puting in a big rounded JayLO bottom on the chart. I like a buy stop at 9.12 mananna and if no movement will go to the stock rebound scrap heap.
ReplyDeleteTOF- It's FDX.
ReplyDeleteLove the imagery RB.
ReplyDeleteWow...look at STVI. Remind me again why we sold this.
ReplyDeleteLater.
ReplyDeleteguys - think about how much money we waste picking bottoms. we really need to develop a method for knowing when to enter this bottoms. i know i've lost a lot of % pts over the years doing this nonsense.
ReplyDeleteMark - If it's FDX related I'm sure we'll be right back up. FDX warned because of the snowstorm. That's gone in a month. Although one of my friends that owns a tech hardware/equipment/software internet company and is tied into govt spending and corporate spending said this year has been slow. He thinks it's due to the snow storms but he's not 100% positive. Personally, my furniture business has had a very slow February but in January we had our best month ever.
ReplyDeleteI still like the 1998/99 parallel to today's market only in so much as how it traded after a huge run. It actually spent the better part of 10 months consolidating those huge gains. While the market was at the same price then as it is now and the earnings underneath the market are much better now, the headwinds facing the market now (i.e., higher commodity prices/huge govt debts/significant social unrest) weren't existent back then. Anyway, if we use the market from back then as a guide then we will probably get some nice trading opportunities just on the SPY index fund. It looks like there were pretty obviously sell and buy points back then: the market had several instances of 3-5 days in which the market was down sharply and also 3-5 days in which the market was up sharply. Those were great opportunities to buy/sell.
ReplyDeleteIYT - Took a bit of a hit today, but some profit taking should be anticipated after that quick run I would think...
ReplyDeleteman every china small cap i look at is being sued and is hiring big 4 audit firms to verify their financials. me thinks we need to be in there buying some of these.
ReplyDeleteTOF: this was probably the reason WATG and SORL were down so much over the past couple of months, but they have been moving up strongly over the past couple of trading days. So entering NOW might be the way to enter on the right side of the V in the early stages of a new uptrend.
ReplyDeleteI'm still waiting for CADC to get hit hard so I can load the boat but alas, it might not happen.
ReplyDelete"Buffett's Berkshire Divests Stakes in Bank of America, Nike"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-14/buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-divests-bank-of-america-stake-filing-shows.html
CAST - TOF, if you're looking for a Chinese stock, and would like the comfort of going behind BC, don't overlook CAST.
ReplyDeleteI just read Bill's opening words for today where he mentioned European banks coming under pressure, looked at the 1-year chart of DB, saw that it seems to have made yet another lower high, and placed a sell short stop limit order for 200 shares at $61.50/$61.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Honestly, I don't know what to think of what's going on there. It could be the screaming buy of the century. I'll stick to something else for now, just in case it's much worse than we know.
ReplyDeleteI just looked at the chart of ECUXF and figured that there is no reason for me to sell too soon the 7100 shares I picked up last week at $1.11. So I have just moved up my sell limit order for these shares to $1.31, close to its December highs.
ReplyDeleteMSQ.V - I guess this might be why they halted today, not sure:
ReplyDeleteMosquito Consolidated Announces Forest Service Issues Key Environmental Permit for CuMo Mineral ExplorationBusiness Wire(Mon 4:28PM EST)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mosquito-Consolidated-bw-891304586.html?x=0&.v=1
RBY - Cheapy, is this out last chance to jump on RBY?
ReplyDeleteTGB - Sure did climb back up the hill, didn't it?
ReplyDeleteCP > the chart of CAST looks just like WATG did back in April before it plunged from like $12 to $6 now. not saying it will, but i'd almost rather buy a stock that has been crushed than wake up one day to a 20% drubbing.
ReplyDeletei'm honestly thinking of just waiting for a selloff and playing SPY or the ultras for the next 6-9 months to keep my risk low while i prepare for buying out my partner's stake in my biz.
DB - Looks like a 20DMA retest coming.
ReplyDeleteDavid - it's too early to tell if WATG / SORL are on the right side of the V. A break above the 200 DMA with a retest back to the 200 DMA would be a good buying opp in my eyes. That could happen at $9 or at $4.
ReplyDeleteTOF - CAST - I think it might depend on how well Deloitte defends their assessment. Lord knows they charged CAST buku bucks for it, so it should buy them something...
ReplyDeleteAnd yep, the rain on the Chinese parade may not have stopped falling yet.
Chinese stocks - Keep in mind, these toxic stories floating around have been like death by 1000 cuts. Every few days some other bozo feels compelled to post another article on SA proclaiming he can't understand how to interpret some balance sheet somewhere.
ReplyDeleteIt's been especially painful when muddy waters does this, and then they parade around articles about how Chinese fraud was wrought on the Taiwan/Hong Kong exchanges. It truly is a mine field, and there probably are some bad actors in the bunch, it drags the entire group down.
This one stuck out to me:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.baltimoresun.com/business/sns-rt-business-us-usa-stoctre71a80u-20110212,0,6130500.story
"Lee is expecting a pullback in the March and April time frame, with the S&P 500 rising to 1,333 before falling to around 1,250, taking the market back to where it was in late December.
"You really need to start buying at the 1,270 level," he said. "You need to be selective and getting ready to buy that dip."
The 1,333 level is the double-your-money mark from the bear market intraday low of 666.79 in March 2009 and is seen as a significant level by some investors."
If today was the short term top I need to be listening to this Tom Lee fella more.
Now back to 100% long RBY. Over 1/4 mm shares.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I think I'm going to give it to end of April, maybe May.
CSCO article FWIW:
ReplyDeletehttp://moneymorning.com/2011/02/14/cisco-systems-inc.-nasdaq-csco-the-story-that-wall-street-missed/
Levels
ReplyDeletehttp://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/
Wow. The Taiwan market dropped like a rock this month. That's the first sign of weakness I've seen in it since last spring/summer.
ReplyDeleteTeam made a comment about comparing this market to 1999. So I took a look down memory lane. A stock I am interested in popped up.
ReplyDeleteJDS this months darling stock was also the darling of the fall 99 to 2000. From August 6 to March 10, 7 months.JDS went from $162 dollars to $1227 dollars.
From the beginning of august to today JDS went from 10.80 to a high of 29.12. The same stock. maybe those buyers in 99 were right about JDS, but just early.
T3D- Where you able to hold onto MDW?
ReplyDeleteJDSU- That was one of the first stocks I bought. Rode it from 11 to about 7. Bought at 3ish and sold at 5ish.
ReplyDeleteJDSU, I use to play tennis with a guy who put his life savings into JDSU back in the day. He probably brought in from say 8-12 and as I recall this was one of Gilder's calls. Anyway he rode this thing all the way up till where it was worth around 5mil. He than rode it down back below his basis.
ReplyDeleteAmazing, you would have thought he would have at least cashed out with a million. I bet he still owns it today, I never ask him. I last sold it at around $135 and was going to buy back at par, but when it got there I never like the way the stock was acting. Sure wish I would have bought a month ago though.
You all know I've been trying to GTFO of LEXVF. I tried today at the open. 1.05 ask. It closed at 1.06. It spit in my face.
ReplyDeleteMark I let that go at 1.31 a few weeks ago. Had a very quick chance to buy back at say 1.10 but I was cautious on the metals at that time. If it pulls back maybe I'll re-enter these sub $5 stocks are not really for me but boy when you hit them right the rewards are something.
ReplyDeleteGood Luck guys&girls.
t3d > damn...could you imagine making that kind of return. that's a life changer. i wish i had the money i have now back then. maybe we're in the midst of one of those kind of runs? maybe REDF is the one we should be piling into? God knows they have one helluva scalable business model if India can ever get the internet up and running.
ReplyDeleteTOF, with say 10,000 choices it is hard to know exactly which ones are where the pot of gold lies, but you have a real knack for stock selection.
ReplyDeleteOk, later
Cheapy;
ReplyDeleteYou are scaring the fuck out of me. What does 100% long mean? I just don't get the fascination with this company
RB > I can't say anything. I tend to go all in on stocks from time to time if my conviction is high (i.e., REDF / RAS).
ReplyDeleteHad an interesting conversation with X+3B today. Bullshitting as usually, and he said to be very careful in the market now. Something like...
ReplyDelete"A lot of people have made a ton of money, and now most of it is at 15%, they wont give much back."
RB- He's been 100% long in RBY before. I'm only 100% long late at night once the kids are asleep.
ReplyDeleteOh, were talking about stocks. Most I've ever been is 25% of the port in 1 position.
ReplyDeletePXP/MMR/RAS/BAC/XCO. XCO was the biggest winner by far.
Paulson's top two holdings per 13F 12/31/10.
ReplyDeleteC $3.9 bil
BAC $3.3 bil
t3d
P.S. that's what I call long
ReplyDeleteWell I don't understand the one stock fascination in this beautiful market we have right now. With 100s of stocks doubling within 6 months why do you need to saddle up one horse. Doesn't Cheapy have like 12 screens on his computer. What does he have, RBY 1mn chart,Rby 2min chart, Rby 30 min ECT.
ReplyDeleteI guess I worry too much about you guys. FD I had trouble sleeping when Team and Mark went in holding RAS going into earnings. I didn't own one share. I thought that was too much risk. I mean CSCO gapped down 12%. How far could a shitty company like RAS gap down? Of coarse the weird thing is If I'm holding my own position through earnings I sleep like a baby. Weird.
RB - Thanks for the concern my friend. I had a cost basis of about $2.0 or $1.95 (due to selling and buying back at lower prices) so I didn't really have that much concern...plus I was up big for the year going into that report...of course, had I gotten the call from my partner about buying her stake in our business the day BEFORE earnings, i probably would have sold.
ReplyDeleteI think Mark was in the same boat as me so I think we both figured it was a great way to make some serious coin or lose a portion of our gains.
I've personally never believed in diversification. At most I will hold maybe 5 positions at one time. I don't have the ability to concentrate on more than a few at a time. I'm too dumb/narrow-minded to be able to do that.
If I felt like the market was in a great spot to buy and hold (preferably after a nice pullback having already happened), then I would be more open to that. I felt that way back in August 2010...I'm praying for another opportunity like that.
RB - What stocks do you own now?
ReplyDeleteAnymore, I can only sleep owning gold or gold miners. I try to buy panic, but its difficult as hell to get myself to do it. I try to sell some into elation, but that's also difficult to do.
ReplyDeleteIf RBY only has 4 mm oz, they are being valued at $250/oz total market cap. If instead it gets to the 13-16 mm high end range, its priced at $65 an oz. Their cash cost should be similar to GG's mine immediately next door (like $300 per oz), and the mine is already 1/2 there. First production planned for 2012 and $60 or $70 mm in the bank and zero debt.
I played this same game with GSS while they built their mine. It wasn't easy, but I think with RBY it will be a lot easier, because instead of 1 or 2 gr per ton like GSS, its 11 or 20, and in a few cases thousands of grams per ton, like the GG mine next door.
Team I own. FNSR, RLD RNOW SFD. 40 % of Port. Diversification is for suckers. My method is to look for TA breakouts or reversals, put about 20% of port down depending on stops. Take half off at 7.5%. My stop is usually 3 to 5 percent depending on the chart. I go half lot on real spec names like csco. Just kidding. On the SFD I actually added to my position at 10 % because I am really bullish on bacon. I don't think this method is better than anyone else and know there is many ways to skin a cat. This method works good in a trending market, but will lose money in neutral choppy markets. In which case I will change the strategy.
ReplyDeleteCheapy,
ReplyDeleteWhy is this particular company your favorite. Am I right in thinking they are more of a mine developer than an ore producer. The big pay day in the stock will come when they sell the mine right. Which leads to the obvious question. When are they selling the mine Cheapy? I do like that kangaroo rat tail on that candle today. I'm thinking of buying some after looking at my lame looking portfolio. I need some commodity exposure. You don't day trade anymore?
PMI - I'm anticipating a poor day for longs following the morning earnings report.
ReplyDeleteWhen you hsve at least 4 mm oz of cheap gold in the ground, you don't ever need to sell the company or the mine, and all the other property they own (the largest land position in red lake) is free, as well as the other properties they own.
ReplyDeleteIf someone offers to buy them out for $10 or $15 before then, ok, fine, its a decision to be made at that point, but otherwise its not worth thinking about other than to listen to the hype to know when its being pumped.
I day trade TZA, but only to keep from being bored. If I make $200 or $300 net at it a day using margin, its great, but it pales completely vs movement in AU, AG and RBY. RBY is bigtime leverage to AU, long term, IMO. Riskier, too, but doubles, triples or quadruples from here if gold goes to $2000 because it doesn't have "country risk" in Ontario.
PS: If they couldn't shake me off with today's antics, I am pretty sure I can ride the bull.
ReplyDeleteIts an Obsession, LOL
ReplyDeletehttp://newimages.yachtworld.com/2/2/8/1/7/2281710_2.jpg?1288619361000
RBY - I'm placing an order for $5.07
ReplyDeleteHa! I'm sure you'll have plenty of time to find just the right boat, I like the idea of wind power.
ReplyDelete"Had an interesting conversation with X+3B today. Bullshitting as usually, and he said to be very careful in the market now. Something like...
ReplyDelete"A lot of people have made a ton of money, and now most of it is at 15%, they wont give much back."
Mark - Is he saying that people with LT gains most likely have short leashes/quick stops?
"most of it is at 15%"
ReplyDeleteI guess they are receiving a 15% quarterly dividend.
Or maybe he means they're up 15% and won't give much back.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteLong FTK stopped SFD
ReplyDelete