Tuesday, February 15, 2011
2/15/11 Time Passes Slowly
Hulbert On Bullish Sentiment Levels newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5263 comments) on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 09:24 #79773
http://tinyurl.com/637bwsy
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Slowly, but at least so far surely, bullish sentiment continues to grow. It is now perilously close to dangerously high levels.
Other things being equal, of course, this from a contrarian view is bad news for the stock market — at least for the short term.
In fact, about the only contrarian-based leg the market has left to stand on is the strangely split nature of many analysts’ forecasts. This split nature is what I devoted one of my columns to earlier this month: Many of the market timers whose optimistic short-term forecasts are pushing sentiment into the dangerously bullish zone are nevertheless bearish on the stock market’s intermediate and longer-term prospects.
A good time to sit back.
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CADC - Come on baby, let's see what you're made of...
ReplyDeleteTOF/CP- Didn't mean to be cryptic.
ReplyDeleteYes, he thinks people will have a short leash and the 15% is referring to their tax basis. VERY important to those boys.
Damn- I can't believe the prices for TZA/VXX...no, wait- I believe it.
ReplyDeleteRotation from energy into financials.
ReplyDeleteI closed out my puts at the open for a modest gain.
ReplyDeleteGuys - Wait for a move below today's low before considering going short. Right now I see banks as being bullish so I doubt the market falls much while they're rising.
JDSU.
ReplyDeleteRAS> More than 1 million shares traded in 30 minutes
ReplyDeleteAlright...if /ES falls below 1324 then it's probably a good spot to short.
ReplyDeleteWTF am I supposed to do with 25 shares of SDS? Layer my exit points?
ReplyDeleteTZA/VXX is a great example of what happens if you get stubborn in this business. Discipline and flexibility is so important.
ReplyDeleteTook off on the open DO, MOTR, WPRT, almost flat.
Looking at CLNE this thing has been cut in half down 48.6% and a 50% Fib retrace is at 14, so they have undercut that by 13%.
Anyway the catalyst for both CLNE and WPRT is what congress does with the Nat Gas Act which Reid let die on 16 Nov 10. If, big if, Congress does support this bill these stocks will move 15-20% in a blink. Why are our leaders so stupid and slow when it comes to our energy problems. Gee we only had 37 years to solved and our heads are still up the Middle East counties asses.
Still have my core position in gold, but really missed buying this reaction.
GL guys and gals
SDS - Average up. ;)
ReplyDeletethat's solve and countries
ReplyDeletet3d
I thinking a little FAZ.
ReplyDeleteI followed my rule of not going short until the break. Bought 20 x SPY March $135 Puts at $3.6.
ReplyDeletestopped FNSR, long IO, RBY.
ReplyDeleteCheapy, Just taking your wife out to dinner.Just friends, Honest
Blizzard 2011: Retail sales less then expected.
ReplyDeleteMan...this is some choppy trading right now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like CHGI is getting some bids. I bought a little more this morning at $1.98. I have 12k shares in it.
ReplyDeleteSorry...10,750 shares. Looks like they all didn't get filled.
ReplyDeletePMI - Recovered, for the most part.
ReplyDeleteBought big position in BAC at $14.79 for a trade.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I got filled on the rest of my CHGI at $1.98. Now have about 14k shs in it.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Good entry: "Annaly Capital Slides on Secondary Offering"
ReplyDeleteThis isn't dilution.
Screw the puts...sold them at a small loss. Probably best to wait for the break to be definitive.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Just don't expect the share price to exceed $17.95 anytime soon, but you'll get the nice div.
ReplyDeleteBought some of CB's RBY at $5.39 just to help support his cause. Plus the chart looks like a good entry point
ReplyDeleteScrew it. I'll be happy with side stepping a $2K 2x4 to the head.
ReplyDeleteCiao.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Carbon-Graphite-Group-pz-2021623904.html?x=0&.v=1
ReplyDeleteInteresting article on CHGI released today. I say this stock goes significantly higher at some point this year.
TRE - At top of range, can she break through?
ReplyDeleteNow have 20k shs in CHGI. Done buying the stock
ReplyDeleteBy the way, CHGI is extremely illiquid. I don't even feel comfortable having this much stock in the company but I think it's worth at least $5/share.
ReplyDeleteBrent crude has continued rising (Today reaching a 20% premium to Tx. Tea) since Egypt calmed down, West Tx. Tea to follow suit?
ReplyDeleteNYMEX light sweet crude $85.46
ReplyDeleteICE North Sea Brent crude $102.71
Spread (ICE- NYMEX) = $17.25 (yesterday $16.5)
$100 Tx. Crude by July 4th?
Added another 500 shs of RBY at $5.23. only 1k total shs. I don't know jack about this company but I like what looks like support on the chart.
ReplyDeleteStop = $4.7
Sorry...added RBY at $5.25, not $5.23.
ReplyDeleteQPSA looks really good. I think it hits 52wk highs soon.
ReplyDeleteI see that CCJ just became a little cheaper, and so I just bought 100 more shares (for a 300 total now) and added those shares into the stop I placed at $42.50.
ReplyDeleteI see that MON has also just become a little cheaper, and so I just bought 1 April $75 call at $2.61.
ReplyDeleteMark
ReplyDeleteNok has signs of life.
Team, my exact thinking on the RBy trade. Wide 20 % channel. 4.70 stop. $5.90 target.
Significantly more puts than calls being purchased on SPY at near the money strike prices. This is the first time I've seen this in the random times I've been looking at it over the past couple of weeks. As such, I decided to hedge my longs with SPY $136 March puts again...I bought 20 of these at $4.09.
ReplyDeleteJJG - Timber! Wonder why?
ReplyDeleteIn the spirit of supporting Cheapy's cause with RBY, I just sold 10 March $5 puts on it at $0.35, so as to enter the stock at $4.65. Unlike you trader guys, I like cheapy's valuation argument, and I just want to buy RBY cheap and hold.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Placed sell order on shares purchased a few days ago for a $0.06/share gain, GMO tried and failed to recapture the 20DMA and me thinks it strange gold chooses to advance just as S&P RSI is bumping 80.
ReplyDeleteLong 5 x CAT $105 March Puts at $4.3
ReplyDeleteSold my BAC at break even. Added some SPY Puts...$136 March Strikes. It feels to me like the market has topped.
ReplyDeleteA little while ago, I placed a sell short limit order for 200 shares of DB at $63.33 (splitting the bid/ask spread), just in case its peak at $64.30 last week turns out to be the 3-rd lower high on its 1-year chart. Only 100 shares were sold to me at $63.33 and then DB headed down. Well, at least I am already making money on those 100 shares. :) In case I am wrong, I placed a buy to cover stop limit order at $64.50/$65.
ReplyDeleteThat's a pretty extreme washout we are seeing in MON now. I just sold 1 April $70 put on MON at $3.15, so as to start scaling into MON at $66.85.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I decided to move down my stop on CCJ a little, to $42/$41.90, as I have a feeling they might just take it down to $42.50 and shake out everyone who climbed on board of its recent break to a new high (I *knew* that buying breakouts to new highs is dangerous!).
ReplyDeleteJust in case the market sells off tomorrow morning and that weakness gets routinely bought, I placed a sell limit order at $28.90 for the 100 shares of VXX I added at $27.90 on Friday (I have a total of 600 shares now, with the first 500 purchased at $28.40).
ReplyDeleteNow only holding CHGI...trimmed position down to 15k shares. Holding about 15k in deep in the money puts on SPY and a few CAT puts. Rest in cash and going to wait out this pullback.
ReplyDeleteGold - Media crys inflation and gold climbs? Hmmmmm..... Smells fishy, like a bull trap.
ReplyDeleteGMO - I finished the distribution, absconded only $0.032/share for a couple bags of groceries and tank of gas.
S&P - I'd like to observe a 20DMA retest before reassuming the position.
ReplyDeleteWell, screw it -- I just sold at $2.02 the April $75 call I purchased on MON at $2.61 earlier today (for an $80 loss including commissions). This call is WAY out of the money now and not much time is left until expiration, so even if the drop in MON stabilizes now, that call will be losing money every day as the time premium will be leaking out of it.
ReplyDeleteSorry about bombarding the board...sold my puts at the double bottom.
ReplyDeleteWatch the market rocketing into a close now...
ReplyDeletere-entered puts at the resistance of /es 1324
ReplyDeleteWith this prospect in mind, I just sold at $28.10 500 shares of VXX (which I acquired initially at $28.40). Maybe I'll repurchase them a little cheaper at the close.
ReplyDelete"Watch the market rocketing into a close now... "
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely! However, that won't alleviate a spiking RSI.
David, Never Never buy breakouts. I'm underwter on the two I bought today:)
ReplyDeleteClosed those puts on /es 1325. Done with the crazy daytrading.
ReplyDeleteI've actually been here a while. Spying to see who talks behind my back!
ReplyDeleteNothing interesting for me to play here.
PAL - What an animal that thing is...
ReplyDelete"Nothing interesting for me to play here."
ReplyDeleteThat's what she said.
UXG- Finally bending on the dilution news yesterday. You guys have a take on this one?
ReplyDeleteCP- TRE is my only 'real' position left.
GMO - I'll try reestablishing my previous trading position somewhere just under $5... It might happen.
ReplyDeleteYep, 5 is the obvious spot.
ReplyDeleteAlright that's it...I decided to change my thinking on BAC...I moved all of the money I had in SPY puts into BAC calls...specifically $15 August strikes at $1.23 average. My thinking is that this gives me 2 earnings cycles to play this out. And I think ultimately BAC gets to $20 this year...if it hits $20 by then that would give me a 4-fold increase on these calls. Given that today is a down day and the stock seems to be building pressure up, this is probably the best time to be buying these calls. It also allows me to ride out an potential pullback in the market. If one doesn't materialize, I'm pretty confident that BAC will be leading the market in its next leg higher.
ReplyDeleteNow it just comes down to holding these damn things.
my thinking on BAC calls instead of the stock is I don't really want to have a huge amount of my portfolio tied up in stock right now...I'd rather have a much smaller amount tied up in calls and wait for a pullback on other stocks.
ReplyDeleteIgors ALGT has been a steady Eddie.
ReplyDeleteBORN back at support.
ReplyDeleteWell, the market rebound that I sensed a little while ago wasn't that strong, and so I have just repurchased at $28.10 the 500 shares of VXX I sold earlier at $28.10.
ReplyDeleteYet again, imbalances favor the financials.
ReplyDeleteCP - Do you realy think NLY is at a good entry point today?
ReplyDeleteDGW - Hmmmm....
ReplyDeleteNLY - They're just growing their business by issuing shares every time the share price approaches $18. The only factors to fear are if the yield curve flattens and management aren't prepared, or if the GSE's no longer issue mortgage guarantees.
ReplyDeleteBy the looks of private mortgage insurers it seems GSE involvement will persist, and management is really good at jerking value out of the yield curve.
Today's new shares issuance is a non-issue, this is the third of fourth time in the last so many quarters, NLY keeps getting larger and paying the div....
The next time I sense the market has bottomed intraday, I'll buy a 3X ultralong instead of playing with the silly VXX, which hasn't even budged as the market was shooting up...
ReplyDeleteJust don't expect your principle share price to increase beyond $17.95, a day like today provides a cushion for your stops.
ReplyDeleteVXX - What the hell is that thing, anyway? Looks exponential.
ReplyDeleteNLY - I think banks are making use of the same mechanisms to cover their real estate losses, but it gets a little bit dicier when the private mortgage insurers get involved, the MBS backstop structure probably isn't quite as robust.
ReplyDelete"The next time I sense the market has bottomed intraday, I'll buy a 3X ultralong instead of playing with the silly VXX, which hasn't even budged as the market was shooting up..."
ReplyDeleteI have come to that realization myself. It did not always trade like this. At one point it traded inverse the S+P very nicely.
VAE.V - The Lord givith and the Lord taketh away.
ReplyDeleteSomewhere within the last 12 hours I read or dreamed about the German chancellor Mercal/Erckle had been ranting about a new Deutschmark or something to the effect of wanting to dump on the Euro and all the problems it causes in terms of fiscal responsibility and debt management.
ReplyDeleteI find it hard to believe Germany didn't know their neighbors were spending faster than the Jones', I suspect they condoned it in hopes the Euro would weaken.
I totally gambled right before the close and bought 250 $15 BAC calls expiring this Friday at an average of about $0.065. Should today's trading be just a fake out and we get a professional gap higher tomorrow, I believe there is a good chance the stock runs up to $15.5 this week. If that happens then the options would be worth 8 times what i bought them at. If not, I will probably sell at a loss tomorrow. Total money at risk is about $1,500.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-America-Jan-card-apf-1746380096.html?x=0&.v=1
ReplyDeletetof- Here's to 15.25 by Friday.
ReplyDeleteDELL - Earnings comment following beat: "Our business has just begun to improve"
ReplyDeleteSemiconductor rally coming?
Thanks 2nd. I'll take a 4-bagger.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Looks like a good place to bet on the next phase of the cycle.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete