No worries 2nd...I have about 80% in cash, 12% long Calls and 8% long SPY $136 March puts that I decided to hold on to. I think tomorrow is another sideways day and then we build momentum for a late week run.
Yesterday, Rubicon Minerals announced that the company expects to file an amended NI 43-101 technical report for its Phoenix Gold Project as a result of a review by the British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC).
The company is expected to make an announcement if any material changes to estimates result from an amended report.
Impact – SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
While no details were provided with respect to the context of the BCSC inquiry, we believe there is a possibility the regulator could be challenging the geological potential estimate reported by the company in conjunction with the NI 43-101 compliant inferred resource estimate announced in November 2010.
The potential tonnages, grades and contained ounces reported in the geological potential estimate were designated by the company as being conceptual in nature, but supportive of the view that the F2 Gold System possibly hosts a very large mineralizing system. The total geological potential of the system was estimated at between 13.3-16.1 million ounces grading 24.4 to 26.8 g/t gold.
We believe a revision, or removal, of the conceptual estimate would have minimal impact to the company, given that the market, in our view, has provided negligible value for the geological potential of the deposit.
In contrast, we believe there could be a material effect if the regulator is disputing the resource methodology behind the inferred resource estimate of 4.0 million ounces grading 20 g/t gold. In our view, the methodology described in the NI 43-101 report is consistent with practices employed elsewhere in the Red Lake camp and, as such, the likelihood of material changes to estimates is relatively minimal in our view.
Accordingly, we make no changes to our valuation at this time. We maintain our 12-month target price of $10.00/share and reiterate our Speculative BUY recommendation.
The market is a mean bitch. Look at /es roar higher. now up almost 10 pts from the bottom an hour before the close.
one thing i've been thinking of as a sure sign of a blow off top: when those social media stocks starting going public. The market is going to go apeshit over them. Twitter + Groupon will be good for 3-5%. Facebook? 5-10%. As a side effect...I'd have to suspect that going long QPSA/REDF will be very profitable.
if BAC can get its act together tomorrow might turn out to be a really good day for me. shit i'm rooting for BAC to go to $16 this week. If it does that little option play that cost me $1,600 or so will be worth about $25k. Here's to a parabolic blow off top!
Mark - BAC also posted their best numbers on consumer debt after the close...and apparently Cramer was touting it in his show. Look at all of the other big banks...they're at prior highs. BAC is $5 off that (or 34% off it). I don't get the logic behind that. Merrill Lynch and Countrywide are going to be huge beneficiaries of this recovery yet I think the general public is completely neglecting them. Anyway, that's why I'm so bullish on this stock. I still think 2013 LEAPs, $15 or $17.5 strikes will generate 10 bagger returns.
I think if FCX drops below $54 tomorrow, then its Monday's spike up to $56 can be considered as a third lower high, and so shorting it would be the thing to do. So I have just placed a sell short stop limit order for 500 shares of FCX at $54/$53.90.
If this market is going to move higher, it's going to move higher because BAC goes higher. This stock is stuck in neutral. I think it gets in gear. I bought my shares back at $14.84.
I also sold RBY at BE at $5.3. I don't know anything about that company.
Re TZA/VXX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5267 comments) on Wed, 02/16/2011 - 09:47 #79853 Dave M- These two have a hard time making the resolution to change and sticking to it- they're as human as we are ;)
How does S&P climb higher with an RSI in the 80's? I think not, it can move sideways at best. Meanwhile, is money moving to emerging markets?
Will BAC/GMO/CADC/CSCO/etc. hold their position if S&P does a swan dive to lower RSI's, or will they climb while S&P moves sideways working off the RSI? Either/or are possible.
Metals have been showing signs of weakness for two months now, as if to telegraph a pending capitulation event.
I just liquidated everything. 100% cash and erased all my watch lists. Watching too many stocks. Looking for simplicity. Tabula rasa. Trying to erase all memory and look at the market like this is the first day trading. So what should I buy.
Re: dollar stopped falling/ opening TZA @ 12.92 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5268 comments) on Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:32 #79874 (in reply to #79871) time for a reversal in stocks?
I see that the copper price keeps moving down after the spike up it had on Monday -- maybe that was the final spike? As a speculation, I just shorted 400 shares of FCX at $55.19 and placed a buy to cover stop at $56.30, just above Monday's intraday highs.
GMO - Placed a bid @ $5.18 to try my hand again in case an afternoon selling bout materializes.
I'm still watching PMI, would love an early entry into the next housing boom... Plenty of headwinds there... and plenty of upside if Congress can get their gears unstuck. Maybe they can't, without allowing a final washout?
Anyway, watched a home builder interview last night. He seemed pretty upbeat, much more so than the builder survey they were referencing.
Also, I looked at the 5-day chart for IWM and figured that if it drops below today's lows (which it can easily do by the end of the day today in one mean market reversal), then it will be time to get back into TWM. So I have just lowered my buy stop limit order on 1000 shares of TWM to $11.21/11.23
DB did a stunt today, surging higher. So I am glad that I was only able to short 100 shares yesterday at my limit price of $53.33. I got stopped out today at $53.53 for a loss of $120. Well, it was a fair attempt. :)
Here goes my buy stop order for TWM at $11.21. :) I should have just bought TWM when it was trading at $11.10 -- I just knew we will have a mean market reversal by the end of the day...
Well, so much for my hopes and dreams on BAC calls expiring this week. I decided to sell them at $0.06 after I saw that the market was getting ready to tumble lower. Took a $.006 loss on it.
Decided to add 5 March $55 puts on FCX into the mix at $2.80. At the same time, so as not to let a profit on my today's FCX short turn into a loss, moved down my buy to cover stop on FCX to $55.19/$55.25 (the level at which I opened my short).
If this is the beginning of a correction, I'm really interested in watching the metals action to see if the correction is already priced in metals for the most part.
Wouldn't it be crazy if metals actually started lifting as the broad market began to sag? If so, I think that might be an indicator of a brief equities correction.
I decided to take profits on my intraday FCX short now, covering at $54.23 the 400 shares I shorted at $55.19, booking $400 profit in one hour -- a pretty good outcome for me... If FCX continues to move lower, then my five $55 puts on FCX will carry on the flag.
If every trade we make always worked it would be like a ATM machine. Dave nothing works all the time. The secret is there is no secret, its just a wall street scam that they know best. Not, just better informed networks who collude ideas.
sold my ALU, looking for a re-entry at some point.
What a typical behavior for the black box algos -- take the market down below the opening low, get everyone totally scared and shaken out of their positions, and then ramp up the market happily higher. I kind of knew that was going to happen, and that's why I closed my FCX short (almost at the low of the day!). The rule of first determining what a TA student (or a regular human being) would do based on the chart and then doing the opposite keeps working...
Guys, I don't believe I invented the whole 52 week thing. THere is a whole cult that feverently follow that philosophy. They are easily spotted. Just find the most boring people at the party. They always talk about ezcorp and cups and handles. "did you catch the buy point." is what they will utter to no one. Then they will mumble "name Bill Oneil's 10 rules for success." with a crooked Trend is Your Friend button attached crookedly to their lapel. NERDS.
I decided to press the CCJ trade a little more, buying 100 more shares at $42.66 and adding those shares into the sell stop at $42. Now I have 400 shares total.
Just bought 1000 more shares of TWM at $11.11. The spike in the market indices we just had was probably due to shorts throwing in the towel, and so an increased short position would be in order now.
Chinese stock scam evaluation - Another aspect I neglected to mention is the philosophy that Chinese companies who aren't legit will experience difficulty borrowing money from Chinese bank lenders (or otherwise, I suppose), so there's another metric for consideration when trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Placing a sell limit at $11.18 for the 1000 shares of TWM I just added at $11.11 -- I think there is a good chance that indices will now re-test the opening lows and will then reverse up again.
RB - My first question is what kind of NERD does it take to attend a party where traders congregate?
I would be tempted to wear something unusual if I were to attend one of these functions, off hand I'd probably select a red cape. Although a crooked button with some clever cliche would provide a nice subtle touch, it needs additional confirmation, such as a pocket protector stuffed with neatly folded Kleenex, civil war beanie, or jester's hat with bells. ;)
Mark - (idle chat) I'm kinda wondering why you chose FAZ over TZA. I admit I haven't looked closely, but it seems like equities themselves are more overbought than financials?
Oh yeah so we close at high of day, right? Well, I'm not going to get sucked into that one while for over a month my existing longs haven't risen any amount worth mentioning.
Gimme a real selloff and we'll talk about adding, else I'll have to buy something low risk like CSCO or just concentrate on scalping.
BAC had a classic kangaroo tail reversal on the hourly chart today. Typically this is a pretty powerful chart pattern from what I've noticed. It could just be wishful thinking on my part that it can ignite before Friday so I make some nice extra coin.
Let's see if I can make one more round trip on FCX: sold short 500 shares at $55.29 and placed a buy to cover stop limit order at $56.30/$56.50, just above Monday's intraday highs.
Mark > I have August ITM calls and stock on BAC so I don't care too much about today's action. I had hope this morning that my $15 calls expiring Friday might work out but that's a negative.
CBS...wow. That was one of the handful of stocks I bought at the bottom. I think I bought it at like $3.5. I wonder if anyone buying then with me is still holding.
In looking at all of the sectors, pretty much every one is at YTD highs. That doesn't suggest any kind of divergence. Are you guys seeing anything that might?
RB, yep, pink goes well with my pasty skin tone, but the blue matches my eyes. They're also great for wearing inside your welding helmet, mine's painted red, white, black and gold, and looks like a pirate's skull. ;)
I know its dangerous to think this way but I think we're too far along to have any correction of more than a few percent. I think people are now at the point where they're getting really antsy about missing the rally. We get one down day and then it just roars much higher.
Interest rates will derail it? c'mon, 10 year rates aren't even at 4%.
Oil / commodity prices will derail it? we haven't seen any evidence of higher prices hurting earnings across the board yet.
I think the hardest trade is being long right here.
AAPL is diving right now apparently related to some Jobs news. Poor guy. If the stock tanks and the market gaps lower, it's probably a buy but that's a big issue for the market going forward in the short term given how much Apple means to the market.
CLF - Forward P/E of 9? Seems low, no? Unless of course someone finally does manage to put the finishing touches on the perpetual motion machine we've been anxiously waiting for all these years?
CCME/BORN - I don't see anything strange with these charts other than a rough day, CAST was down -16% at one point, like a stops raid or a large order was dumped all at once.
Too bad I don't know much about CAST, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out it's legit.
NEP - Same with that one, don't know much.
LEXVF - A pretty thin trader there, I trust you're green and kept it small.
I decided to also place a buy to cover limit order at $54.50 for the 500 shares of FCX I re-shorted today at $55.30 (in addition to the stop limit I have for these shares at $56.30/$56.50). Let's see which one of them gets hit first. I think it is 50-50 at this point...
I have 21.02 ema. Simple is well below it. Ok, I didn't say which direction. How about. The 200 day is a lid on a over heated, upside down, pressure cooker.
RB- FTK is the best parts supplier to horizontal drilling co's. They have nothing to due with 'fracing' as in the solutions they use. Think bits, bores, and joints.
Not from MOG...But my beloved Natty is dead. The coal lobby is just to strong, and with the Rep's in charge of the house, carbon tax is also dead.
So instead of taking advantage of a 'cleaner' burning fuel no one else in the world has as much of, we'll sell our land reserves, via CHK et al, to China, while me chug out more fucking dirty coal.
Your chart is right. I was getting my info from google because it is the only real time that gets through the school fire wall. I checked other stocks and google matches up, but now I don't trust it. i joke around a lot, but not about the f'n charts. Boy I can't wait for facebook to wipe google off the face of the earth.
FTK - Environmentally friendly nano-fluids? Somebody may have spent too much time around behind the DDT mosquito fogging truck, nano particles introduce a new meaning to the word toxic that's not easily quantified, please don't put them into my environment unless they're completely bound to something that won't let them pass right through my skin and contaminate my blood.
At least Congress put the kybosh on the development of another fighter jet engine today, I was getting tired of constantly hearing all about how much we needed it on the DC radio news.
There was an urban legend that a certain activity would make you blind, give you hair palms or possibly Nipponese. Maybe there is a long term cumulative effect. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4
Anatomy of a pullback...just take a look at how the Taiwan market has been acting. Notice the pullback began with two key elements that anyone could have noticed and taken advantage of:
(1) Gap higher after a big run with an immediate reversal lower and close near the lows the day (2) Next day gaps lower with a rebound that stalls before halfway through the day and then heads lower and closes on the lows.
I think at the point where the market bounced higher then reversed and traded below the lows of the morning on the 2nd day was the ideal time to start shorting/buying puts. Otherwise, you could easily get faked out.
Right Team: need confirmation. What will that look like on a chart. Evening star, death star, Gravestone doji what ever they call that candle stick pattern. Basically a blow off top. It has not happened. Until it does we are in a 100% gain bull market. Is 110% gain market that much different? Don't fight the trend, but have tight stops. right?
No worries, tof. We'll get that spike up before the downdraft. IMHO.
ReplyDeleteNo worries 2nd...I have about 80% in cash, 12% long Calls and 8% long SPY $136 March puts that I decided to hold on to. I think tomorrow is another sideways day and then we build momentum for a late week run.
ReplyDelete2nd- Looks like BBQing is going to be a challenge tonight.
ReplyDeleteProbably not as tough as taking on the rain/wind in your shorts/sandals this morning.
ReplyDeleteRBY, I be keeping screens off and waiting.
ReplyDeleteThey can't shake me out if I am not looking...
TD analyst sez..
ReplyDeleteRBY/RMX TD Maintains 10.00 target...
Rubicon Minerals Corp.
(RMX-T, RBY-A) C$5.13
Staying the Course
Event
Yesterday, Rubicon Minerals announced that the company expects to file an amended NI 43-101 technical report for its Phoenix Gold Project as a result of a review by the British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC).
The company is expected to make an announcement if any material changes to estimates result from an amended report.
Impact – SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
While no details were provided with respect to the context of the BCSC inquiry, we believe there is a possibility the regulator could be challenging the geological potential estimate reported by the company in conjunction with the
NI 43-101 compliant inferred resource estimate announced in November 2010.
The potential tonnages, grades and contained ounces reported in the geological potential estimate were designated by the company as being
conceptual in nature, but supportive of the view that the F2 Gold System possibly hosts a very large mineralizing system. The total geological potential of the system was estimated at between 13.3-16.1 million ounces grading 24.4 to 26.8 g/t gold.
We believe a revision, or removal, of the conceptual estimate would have minimal impact to the company, given that the market, in our view, has provided negligible value for the geological potential of the deposit.
In contrast, we believe there could be a material effect if the regulator is disputing the resource methodology behind the inferred resource estimate of 4.0 million ounces grading 20 g/t gold. In our view, the methodology
described in the NI 43-101 report is consistent with practices employed elsewhere in the Red Lake camp and, as such, the likelihood of material changes to estimates is relatively minimal in our view.
Accordingly, we make no changes to our valuation at this time. We maintain our 12-month target price of $10.00/share and reiterate our Speculative BUY recommendation.
cb- Cherish times like these. The ecstasy of a spike up is directly proportional to the agony endured while holding.
ReplyDeleteDamn. My little girl is all grown up.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/fpxduFNKm7O
I completely forgot about my CHGI position...so I guess I'm about 70% cash.
ReplyDelete2nd, I've endured many before that have turned into 6 and even one 7 digit gain.
ReplyDeleteI can smell it...
The market is a mean bitch. Look at /es roar higher. now up almost 10 pts from the bottom an hour before the close.
ReplyDeleteone thing i've been thinking of as a sure sign of a blow off top: when those social media stocks starting going public. The market is going to go apeshit over them. Twitter + Groupon will be good for 3-5%. Facebook? 5-10%. As a side effect...I'd have to suspect that going long QPSA/REDF will be very profitable.
Damn.../es is skyrocketing right now. Anyone know why?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Cause they be hammering Uncle Buck.
ReplyDeleteif BAC can get its act together tomorrow might turn out to be a really good day for me. shit i'm rooting for BAC to go to $16 this week. If it does that little option play that cost me $1,600 or so will be worth about $25k. Here's to a parabolic blow off top!
ReplyDelete16 by the end of the week? Pass me the bowl dude :)
ReplyDeletehaha. yeah. ya never know though...it's so hated and just coiling up.
ReplyDeleteHey why not 17 bucks. I'l take a toke off that.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You might get it my friend. If things open the way we are now, MONEY.
ReplyDeleteBAC did have a closing imbalance to the buy side that played out perfectly.
RAS held up well today IMHO.
ReplyDeleteMark - BAC also posted their best numbers on consumer debt after the close...and apparently Cramer was touting it in his show. Look at all of the other big banks...they're at prior highs. BAC is $5 off that (or 34% off it). I don't get the logic behind that. Merrill Lynch and Countrywide are going to be huge beneficiaries of this recovery yet I think the general public is completely neglecting them. Anyway, that's why I'm so bullish on this stock. I still think 2013 LEAPs, $15 or $17.5 strikes will generate 10 bagger returns.
ReplyDeleteby the way, we're totally gapping lower tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I did see the Con. debit data after the close, but thanks!
ReplyDeleteI think if FCX drops below $54 tomorrow, then its Monday's spike up to $56 can be considered as a third lower high, and so shorting it would be the thing to do. So I have just placed a sell short stop limit order for 500 shares of FCX at $54/$53.90.
ReplyDeleteAlso, just to have put back in place some hedges against my long positions, I placed a buy stop limit order for 1000 shares of TWM at $11.50/$11.55.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Seems to me that Thursday's low is just one in a series of higher lows from 2008.
ReplyDeletetof- If we're gapping lower, I don't see it. I do see BAC gapping up ;)
ReplyDeleteIf this market is going to move higher, it's going to move higher because BAC goes higher. This stock is stuck in neutral. I think it gets in gear. I bought my shares back at $14.84.
ReplyDeleteI also sold RBY at BE at $5.3. I don't know anything about that company.
Also sold my ITM SPY Puts (Mar $136) at 9% loss.
ReplyDeletePM miners are getting hit.
ReplyDeleteRe TZA/VXX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5267 comments) on Wed, 02/16/2011 - 09:47 #79853
ReplyDeleteDave M- These two have a hard time making the resolution to change and sticking to it- they're as human as we are ;)
Watch HDY on an upgrade to 9.
ReplyDeleteOr the market can just ignore BAC and push up all other financials...which is what it seems to be doing.
ReplyDeleteSDS @ 20.96. Let's see if I can trade away my position here.
ReplyDeleteHow does S&P climb higher with an RSI in the 80's? I think not, it can move sideways at best. Meanwhile, is money moving to emerging markets?
ReplyDeleteWill BAC/GMO/CADC/CSCO/etc. hold their position if S&P does a swan dive to lower RSI's, or will they climb while S&P moves sideways working off the RSI? Either/or are possible.
Metals have been showing signs of weakness for two months now, as if to telegraph a pending capitulation event.
What's up with WFC.
ReplyDeleteFAZ @ 7.43.
ReplyDeleteI read Obama is now proposing 5% GROSS tax on miners.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I didn't want miners in banana republics
Anyone else get the idea JPM is buying it's own stock today after the investors conference yesterday?
ReplyDeleteCHGI looking very good. Finally looks to be breaking out.
ReplyDeleteInstead of screwing around with FAXy I should have played HDY.
ReplyDeleteCP the market can rotate its way higher. Its essentially been doing that since the beginning of the year.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nice. Looks like it to me. Go get-um.
ReplyDeleteWFC is probably clouding my take on FAZ. But yikes!
ReplyDeleteJGG - Still coming off, what's happening to the food inflation scare?
ReplyDeleteWFC has already hit it's daily volume.
ReplyDeleteIYT/NSC - Still looking great.
ReplyDeleteScrew it. WFC has seemed to stabalized and FAX is stuck. Off at 7.46 and SDS off @ 20.93. That cost me 100 bucks.
ReplyDeleteYikes, that was just in time!
ReplyDeleteTOF - I just want this metals weakness to end, and now grains look to be softening up as well...
ReplyDeleteNLY - Moving back up.
ReplyDeleteI just liquidated everything. 100% cash and erased all my watch lists. Watching too many stocks. Looking for simplicity. Tabula rasa. Trying to erase all memory and look at the market like this is the first day trading. So what should I buy.
ReplyDeleteRe: dollar stopped falling/ opening TZA @ 12.92 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5268 comments) on Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:32 #79874 (in reply to #79871)
ReplyDeletetime for a reversal in stocks?
jack- You know, I think it is.
PAL - Looks really strong since they released the update on their mine. Not sure which one(s) or what changes were announced, haven't read the report.
ReplyDeleteI see that the copper price keeps moving down after the spike up it had on Monday -- maybe that was the final spike? As a speculation, I just shorted 400 shares of FCX at $55.19 and placed a buy to cover stop at $56.30, just above Monday's intraday highs.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Placed a bid @ $5.18 to try my hand again in case an afternoon selling bout materializes.
ReplyDeleteI'm still watching PMI, would love an early entry into the next housing boom... Plenty of headwinds there... and plenty of upside if Congress can get their gears unstuck. Maybe they can't, without allowing a final washout?
Anyway, watched a home builder interview last night. He seemed pretty upbeat, much more so than the builder survey they were referencing.
Cautious, cautious, cautious!
Also, I looked at the 5-day chart for IWM and figured that if it drops below today's lows (which it can easily do by the end of the day today in one mean market reversal), then it will be time to get back into TWM. So I have just lowered my buy stop limit order on 1000 shares of TWM to $11.21/11.23
ReplyDeleteDB did a stunt today, surging higher. So I am glad that I was only able to short 100 shares yesterday at my limit price of $53.33. I got stopped out today at $53.53 for a loss of $120. Well, it was a fair attempt. :)
ReplyDeleteHere goes my buy stop order for TWM at $11.21. :) I should have just bought TWM when it was trading at $11.10 -- I just knew we will have a mean market reversal by the end of the day...
ReplyDeleteWell, so much for my hopes and dreams on BAC calls expiring this week. I decided to sell them at $0.06 after I saw that the market was getting ready to tumble lower. Took a $.006 loss on it.
ReplyDeleteDecided to buy back into BTU today at $65.6.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Still lifting since we were reviewing the chart a few sessions ago...
ReplyDeleteDecided to add 5 March $55 puts on FCX into the mix at $2.80. At the same time, so as not to let a profit on my today's FCX short turn into a loss, moved down my buy to cover stop on FCX to $55.19/$55.25 (the level at which I opened my short).
ReplyDeleteIf this is the beginning of a correction, I'm really interested in watching the metals action to see if the correction is already priced in metals for the most part.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be crazy if metals actually started lifting as the broad market began to sag? If so, I think that might be an indicator of a brief equities correction.
Maybe we're just retesting 1330...
ReplyDeleteI decided to take profits on my intraday FCX short now, covering at $54.23 the 400 shares I shorted at $55.19, booking $400 profit in one hour -- a pretty good outcome for me... If FCX continues to move lower, then my five $55 puts on FCX will carry on the flag.
ReplyDeletePCAR - About to recapture 20DMA
ReplyDeleteI'm giving it a go at RB's theory that stocks at 52 week highs tend to go higher. That's part of the reason I'm in BTU.
ReplyDeleteBought back into my BAC $15 calls expiring this week at $.05. Maybe this trade down was just another shakeout.
ReplyDeletesorry...bought them at $.06.
ReplyDeleteTOF, if stock at 52-week highs tend to move higher, then why did CCJ collapse as soon as I bought into it???
ReplyDeleteGood article on Sac's Cohen philosphy.
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/15/sac-capitals-cohen-opens-up/
If every trade we make always worked it would be like a ATM machine. Dave nothing works all the time. The secret is there is no secret, its just a wall street scam that they know best. Not, just better informed networks who collude ideas.
sold my ALU, looking for a re-entry at some point.
ACH - Moving right along.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think CCJ is overvalued to be honest. I can make a case for BTU being undervalued on earnings/cash flow.
ReplyDeleteWhat a typical behavior for the black box algos -- take the market down below the opening low, get everyone totally scared and shaken out of their positions, and then ramp up the market happily higher. I kind of knew that was going to happen, and that's why I closed my FCX short (almost at the low of the day!). The rule of first determining what a TA student (or a regular human being) would do based on the chart and then doing the opposite keeps working...
ReplyDeleteDavid - Daytraders need to be thinking like the Black Boxes then, right?
ReplyDeleteGuys, I don't believe I invented the whole 52 week thing. THere is a whole cult that feverently follow that philosophy. They are easily spotted. Just find the most boring people at the party. They always talk about ezcorp and cups and handles. "did you catch the buy point." is what they will utter to no one. Then they will mumble "name Bill Oneil's 10 rules for success." with a crooked Trend is Your Friend button attached crookedly to their lapel. NERDS.
ReplyDeleteTEVA - Have any of you guys been keeping an eye on this one?
ReplyDeleteI decided to press the CCJ trade a little more, buying 100 more shares at $42.66 and adding those shares into the sell stop at $42. Now I have 400 shares total.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 1000 more shares of TWM at $11.11. The spike in the market indices we just had was probably due to shorts throwing in the towel, and so an increased short position would be in order now.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Perhaps the move down was legit...and we see a true move down into the close...
ReplyDeleteOne more try...FAZ @ 4.76.
ReplyDeleteChinese stock scam evaluation - Another aspect I neglected to mention is the philosophy that Chinese companies who aren't legit will experience difficulty borrowing money from Chinese bank lenders (or otherwise, I suppose), so there's another metric for consideration when trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.
ReplyDeletePlacing a sell limit at $11.18 for the 1000 shares of TWM I just added at $11.11 -- I think there is a good chance that indices will now re-test the opening lows and will then reverse up again.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I doubt this is the case though...I still think BAC breaks out higher and lifts the market to 1,350.
ReplyDeleteC'mon REDF! Crash baby! I want in at around $5.
ReplyDeleteNooooope. FAZ off @ 4.47.
ReplyDeleteJust as I expected, the indices reversed back up after testing the opening lows, but my sell limit on TWM did not get hit. Too bad...
ReplyDeleteRB - My first question is what kind of NERD does it take to attend a party where traders congregate?
ReplyDeleteI would be tempted to wear something unusual if I were to attend one of these functions, off hand I'd probably select a red cape. Although a crooked button with some clever cliche would provide a nice subtle touch, it needs additional confirmation, such as a pocket protector stuffed with neatly folded Kleenex, civil war beanie, or jester's hat with bells. ;)
OK, just sold at $11.10 the 1000 shares of TWM I added at $11.11.
ReplyDeleteThe indices should break out to new highs now, but then have a minor reversal into the close...
ReplyDeleteMark - (idle chat) I'm kinda wondering why you chose FAZ over TZA. I admit I haven't looked closely, but it seems like equities themselves are more overbought than financials?
ReplyDeleteOh yeah so we close at high of day, right? Well, I'm not going to get sucked into that one while for over a month my existing longs haven't risen any amount worth mentioning.
ReplyDeleteGimme a real selloff and we'll talk about adding, else I'll have to buy something low risk like CSCO or just concentrate on scalping.
CP- Just trying to scalp of off level II quotes.
ReplyDeleteBAC had a classic kangaroo tail reversal on the hourly chart today. Typically this is a pretty powerful chart pattern from what I've noticed. It could just be wishful thinking on my part that it can ignite before Friday so I make some nice extra coin.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe, but I'm still better off having sold on Monday. TRE still pushing higher.
ReplyDeletePAL - Ka-POW!
ReplyDeleteA little crack in RAS here.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Kangaroo tail - Last time you used that phrase, RAS' outer electrons jumped a few levels.
ReplyDeleteCADC - It must be getting close to time for the MM to retest the lower support line again, got my $4.50 bid entered and all ready for him.
ReplyDelete"Hard to believe, but I'm still better off having sold on Monday."
ReplyDeleteI would have been better off selling RAS on Monday too.
Damn, BAC must be giving you a real headache today. What chop.
ReplyDeleteBORN. Missed it. Too busy watching FAZ tick .01 for 2 hours.
ReplyDeleteRB - Here's an example of my favorite trading hat. They're priced right, too:
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/SUN-BONNET-costume-any-time-sun-/320655808658?pt=US_Hats&hash=item4aa8935892
Let's see if I can make one more round trip on FCX: sold short 500 shares at $55.29 and placed a buy to cover stop limit order at $56.30/$56.50, just above Monday's intraday highs.
ReplyDeleteBTU looks like it's breaking out.
ReplyDeleteMark > I have August ITM calls and stock on BAC so I don't care too much about today's action. I had hope this morning that my $15 calls expiring Friday might work out but that's a negative.
CSCO - Hmm, maybe they're not done pounding this one...
ReplyDeleteCBS...wow. That was one of the handful of stocks I bought at the bottom. I think I bought it at like $3.5. I wonder if anyone buying then with me is still holding.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Imagine that, coal busting a new 52wk high... What ever happened to wind powered cars, just a bunch of hot air???
ReplyDeleteWNR +7%
ReplyDeleteIn looking at all of the sectors, pretty much every one is at YTD highs. That doesn't suggest any kind of divergence. Are you guys seeing anything that might?
ReplyDeleteXLB, XRT, XLF, XLE, XLY, QQQQ, IYT, IYR
Long NTAP at $54.67 for a trade.
ReplyDeleteBTU- Price pays, but two days of rat tails indicate a lack of momentum and low volume on the breakout are a concern. I would keep a tight stop.
ReplyDeleteCP. I see you more in a pink pastel.
BAC - When do the shortie hedge funds start parading their wikileaks stories again? Can they wait until share price tops $15?
ReplyDeleteRB, yep, pink goes well with my pasty skin tone, but the blue matches my eyes. They're also great for wearing inside your welding helmet, mine's painted red, white, black and gold, and looks like a pirate's skull. ;)
ReplyDeleteBTU Momentum - That's a good observation...
ReplyDeleteAONE - Speaking of wind, is there anything about this chart that peeks interest? It kinds looks like the $10 milestone may be around the corner.
ReplyDeleteSold my NTAP for a $11 gain after commissions. Woohoo.
ReplyDeleteRB - good point on the volume. CLF just beat after hours and the stock is up pretty big. I suspect that re-energizes the Coal sector.
I know its dangerous to think this way but I think we're too far along to have any correction of more than a few percent. I think people are now at the point where they're getting really antsy about missing the rally. We get one down day and then it just roars much higher.
ReplyDeleteInterest rates will derail it? c'mon, 10 year rates aren't even at 4%.
Oil / commodity prices will derail it? we haven't seen any evidence of higher prices hurting earnings across the board yet.
I think the hardest trade is being long right here.
I closed my IO position because of earnings. Now IO is mocking me with a 10% pop AH. I need to grow a set or order one of those light blue hats.
ReplyDeleteWOW CLF. Coal must be black gold.
ReplyDeleteAAPL is diving right now apparently related to some Jobs news. Poor guy. If the stock tanks and the market gaps lower, it's probably a buy but that's a big issue for the market going forward in the short term given how much Apple means to the market.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.alphatrends.net/
ReplyDeleteMust see TV to keep up with the trend.
CLF - Forward P/E of 9? Seems low, no? Unless of course someone finally does manage to put the finishing touches on the perpetual motion machine we've been anxiously waiting for all these years?
ReplyDeletePCP - Finally, a red candle.
ReplyDeletehmm...been looking at the long term DJIA chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19001920.html
Looks like in any period where there was a crash and then a rally of 100%, the market at least pulled back a little bit at around that mark.
PCP? Red Candles? Last time I was on that i had to fight off the red ants the size of camero's.
ReplyDeleteFDO - Nice +21% move there on the buyout offer.
ReplyDeleteCAST - Wow, WTF?
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, CAST/CCME/BORN all had violent days.
ReplyDeleteTalk about a clean technical trade in that space. NEP.
ReplyDeleteMy lonely journey to separate myself from LEXVF continues....
ReplyDeleteCCME/BORN - I don't see anything strange with these charts other than a rough day, CAST was down -16% at one point, like a stops raid or a large order was dumped all at once.
ReplyDeleteToo bad I don't know much about CAST, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out it's legit.
NEP - Same with that one, don't know much.
LEXVF - A pretty thin trader there, I trust you're green and kept it small.
I decided to also place a buy to cover limit order at $54.50 for the 500 shares of FCX I re-shorted today at $55.30 (in addition to the stop limit I have for these shares at $56.30/$56.50). Let's see which one of them gets hit first. I think it is 50-50 at this point...
ReplyDeleteASIA chart looks ready to explode. The 200 day is a lid on a over heated pressure cooker.
ReplyDeleteASIA- I have the 200sma/200ema below the current price?
ReplyDeletePMI - What happens when PMI announces they're taking BAC to court over the fraudulent Countrywide mortgages scam?
ReplyDeleteI have 21.02 ema. Simple is well below it. Ok, I didn't say which direction. How about. The 200 day is a lid on a over heated, upside down, pressure cooker.
ReplyDeleteToday we passed 2x666
ReplyDeleteHmmm.. I have sma/ema exactly the same right now.
ReplyDeleteMark is FTK a fracking operation? If so why is the stock going parabolic when they are about ready to give natgas away free.
ReplyDeleteWhat charts are you using
ReplyDeleteRB - You really need to get yourself one of these thinking caps, they keep your brain hydrated and cool so stuff like that won't happen anymore...
ReplyDeleteRD- This is what I'm seeing...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/ecZjh8Bp75nc
Free NATTY? What kind of earnings are these companies reporting, there must be something to the picture that we're unaware of...
ReplyDeleteRB- FTK is the best parts supplier to horizontal drilling co's. They have nothing to due with 'fracing' as in the solutions they use. Think bits, bores, and joints.
ReplyDeleteNot from MOG...But my beloved Natty is dead. The coal lobby is just to strong, and with the Rep's in charge of the house, carbon tax is also dead.
So instead of taking advantage of a 'cleaner' burning fuel no one else in the world has as much of, we'll sell our land reserves, via CHK et al, to China, while me chug out more fucking dirty coal.
Wait a second, does that mean we have permission to resume commenting on Boehner's appearance again?
ReplyDeleteSorry, but I think Patricia had better get me to the emergency room. It's been well over 4 hours now and it's getting hard to see...
ReplyDeleteFTK - Citrus frack fluid?
ReplyDeleteGetting darker...Boehner is ALWAYS free game!
ReplyDeleteYour chart is right. I was getting my info from google because it is the only real time that gets through the school fire wall. I checked other stocks and google matches up, but now I don't trust it. i joke around a lot, but not about the f'n charts. Boy I can't wait for facebook to wipe google off the face of the earth.
ReplyDeleteFTK - Environmentally friendly nano-fluids? Somebody may have spent too much time around behind the DDT mosquito fogging truck, nano particles introduce a new meaning to the word toxic that's not easily quantified, please don't put them into my environment unless they're completely bound to something that won't let them pass right through my skin and contaminate my blood.
ReplyDeleteStay away from nano-particles.
"school fire wall."
ReplyDeleteHa, we already know you're referring to the prison fire wall.
Well I was fighting those big red ants in the yard.
ReplyDeleteMark, Why is it getting hard to see? Do you have a migraine or a Boehner?
I'm all in tears of joy, I just know IT's gonna be HARD getting up tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteRB- It's kinda personal, but I guess we're all friends, but I'm up to 6 Viagra a day.
ReplyDeleteGuess it's catching up to me...Darker and darker....
There's no bigger hard-ass than Mark, er, JC Holmes Esquire, BSD!
ReplyDeleteAt least Congress put the kybosh on the development of another fighter jet engine today, I was getting tired of constantly hearing all about how much we needed it on the DC radio news.
ReplyDeleteThere was an urban legend that a certain activity would make you blind, give you hair palms or possibly Nipponese. Maybe there is a long term cumulative effect.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4
Have another beer and make more incoherent posts Robear. The beagle needs to lie down and get "hair palms."
ReplyDeleteThis will put a smile on the faces of buuls.
ReplyDeletehttp://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2011/02/presidential-stock-cycle-analogy.html
Anatomy of a pullback...just take a look at how the Taiwan market has been acting. Notice the pullback began with two key elements that anyone could have noticed and taken advantage of:
ReplyDelete(1) Gap higher after a big run with an immediate reversal lower and close near the lows the day
(2) Next day gaps lower with a rebound that stalls before halfway through the day and then heads lower and closes on the lows.
I think at the point where the market bounced higher then reversed and traded below the lows of the morning on the 2nd day was the ideal time to start shorting/buying puts. Otherwise, you could easily get faked out.
Right Team: need confirmation. What will that look like on a chart. Evening star, death star, Gravestone doji what ever they call that candle stick pattern. Basically a blow off top. It has not happened. Until it does we are in a 100% gain bull market. Is 110% gain market that much different? Don't fight the trend, but have tight stops. right?
ReplyDeleteTele great chart. The market is ahead of schedule or maybe this will be an outperform 3rd term!
ReplyDeletethird year. thanks for spelling buul.
ReplyDeleteAlright, so I still don't know which is the right move from here... SOSDD
ReplyDeleteORB - I'm hearing the earnings were improved.
ReplyDeleteEmployment - No surprises in today's report.
ReplyDeleteAPA might get cheap today off of earnings.
ReplyDeleteTRP - I keep hearing DC radio news clips this company is constantly playing, urging their pipeline proposal be approved.
ReplyDeleteMight be worth looking into?
GMO - Well, of course they shook me out of my trading position a few days ago. The very same position I'd be selling today if I weren't shaken out...
ReplyDelete