Thursday, February 17, 2011

2/17/11 Toasted Modem

There was a power outage Wednesday morning during the high winds. I didn't find out until much later that a power surge must have hit my modem.

114 comments:

  1. TRP - I keep hearing DC radio news clips this company is constantly playing, urging their pipeline proposal be approved.

    Might be worth looking into?

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  2. Philly fed, mort. deliquesces positive. Better move this market, otherwise, I don't like the action I'm seeing.

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  3. Va. - 31st in public pension debt. This is attributable to Mark Warner's past fiscal policies, former governor current senator.

    Mark is one of the good guys, his philosophy is government must be run like a business.

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  4. Besides GMO, anyone seeing something they like?

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  5. GMO - The odd thing is TC is red.

    Gold is green, ABX just cleared $50 today...

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  6. GMO - I'm pretty sure it'll come back down to settle around $5.43

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  7. Phil. manufacturing index off the chart good?

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  8. I'm really pissed at myself for getting shaken out of my GMO trading position.

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  9. CYD - Must be close to a decent entry here.

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  10. HDY - Who in their right mind would've sold that one as it was bouncing off the lower trend line just two sessions ago?

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  11. HDY- Add that one to a long list of plays I had nailed and passed on.

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  12. Mark - I'm convinced that keeps happening b/c our level of experience is lacking.

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  13. PCAR - Looks like it's headed back to the lower trend line.

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  14. CSCO - Green..... (Taps foot, glances at watch).

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  15. RAS - What a bunch of sluts trading that thing, rally it up on earnings, sell and move on.

    I've got a target of ~$3.25 from here, back inside the upper trend line.

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  16. Mark I think my list is longer. We should discuss some method/system to take advantage of our great calls, but lack of execution. :)

    Where the hell is everyone else.

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  17. CP- Yeah, I agree. I need to trust myself a little more.

    At the close ladies...

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  18. "Philly fed, mort. deliquesces positive. Better move this market, otherwise, I don't like the action I'm seeing. "

    Mark - Give the market a break man. What did it ever do to you? Seriously, though, it's just digesting gains man. It's at YTD highs.

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  19. 2nd's down for the count with a defective router.

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  20. He's got that new fangled phone.

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  21. TZA closed/ CSCO opened newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5270 comments) on Thu, 02/17/2011 - 11:22 #79950
    TZA closed @ 12.75 (that's right, the low of the day), and CSCO opened @ 18.68.

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  22. Turns out I need to call SBC/AT&T for a replacement! This could take weeks, guys...

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  23. CALM - Alright fellas, I'm focusing in on going long this one, any ideas for why that's maybe not a good idea?

    JJG - moving back a little today.

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  24. 2nd - Doesn't FRY's have that router on their shelf?

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  25. CADC/GMO - These two ALWAYS move in opposite directions...

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  26. Actually, I'm nearly back to my all time portfolio high, so I really shouldn't be bitching and complaining like a little girl...

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  27. I'm still ~61% long, that's probably close enough for government work?

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  28. something is wrong: a) I'm way, way up trading 6E this a.m. (shutting down now to protect the $$$) b) I'm trading 6E???? Thought I was in the penalty box.

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  29. CP - I'm still 67% long too, can't seem to move enough $$$ over to alt investments to keep up with this equity market grind higher...but I ain't complaining, at least not until we correct 15%-20% then I'll be crying like a babay

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  30. Actually, it's not the router. It's the modem.

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  31. Hey RB - 6E is the euro/usd futures contract, full price it's around $125k per contract but at Infinity Futures you can level up to your gills, every .001 can be a lot of cash.

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  32. Just had to buy a new router myself 2nd, the old one last 3-4 years which ain't bad.

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  33. Router/modem, what's the diff, the smoke escaped and so the box needs replacement.

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  34. Interesting... I just noticed that there was a BIG spike up in VXX (read VIX futures) at the end of the day yesterday, and VXX is up even more today despite the indices being green already! Does it mean that the smart traders are looking forward and are expecting a lot of market turbulence in the near future?

    In any case, VXX hit this morning a sell limit at $28.90 for the 100 shares I purchased at $27.90 last week. Then, I figured I would sell 100 more shares out of the remaining 500, since VXX is already above my cost basis (at $28.42) and profits should be taken in this beast whenever they appear. By mistake, I sold all my 500 shares at $28.85.

    In the past, such mistakes have always turned out well for me, so I'll just watch VXX and will repurchase it when VIX drops below $16. On the other hand, in case we get a lot of market turbulence soon, I just purchased 3 IWM puts with a strike of $85.

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  35. JB - What was that takeover stock you were into the other day, I lost track...

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  36. Awesome JB keep it up. So you use the word PIP alot.

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  37. VXX up? No wonder GMO is up, they're dragging unsuspecting victims into chasing before they take it down a notch. ;)

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  38. And what has my friend FCX been doing while I was asleep? As I expected, it had a moment of weakness in the morning, hitting a low of $54.49. Isn't it nice that I re-shorted 500 shares of FCX yesterday at $55.33 and placed a buy to cover limit at $54.50? That limit got hit this morning, for yet another $400 profit. Looks like I am finally in sync with the daily swings in FCX. :)

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  39. Yeah, both JB and Mark are deep into TLA's

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  40. PIP = Picture In Picture, a video format that allows watching two video streams simultaneously on a single video display.

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  41. VXX - The rate of loss does appear to be flattening out in a longer time horizon.

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  42. RE: CALM

    CP: I heard somewhere that when grain prices increase, all chicken farmers go bust. So buying CALM now would be a way of betting on the grain prices coming down -- is that what you want to do?

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  43. F35 Joint Strike Fighter engine program already $3B spent, program to be scrapped.

    Talk about change!

    A real live budget cut straight from Congress, finally a cut that's not couch change.

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  44. "VXX - The rate of loss does appear to be flattening out in a longer time horizon."

    That is partially because instead of trading near $29 for some unexplainable reason right now, VXX should have been trading near $27, given that the indices rallied yesterday and are green again today.

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  45. CP: what's up with GMO today? Do you still have your core position in it?

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  46. David - CALM - That's precisely the phenomenon I'm wrestling with, chicken farmers go bust and chicken feed has in fact risen markedly.

    1) True for egg farmers? I think they can pass the costs on.
    2) Grain prices are near a top, it's all priced in?
    3) Honestly, I have no idea but I'm thinking about it.

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  47. BTU was down on a false rumor...just bought more at $65.45.

    Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Peabody Energy calls report of potential 4-week lag in Metropolitan mine ops “wholly unfounded,” according to investor relations spokesman Vic Svec.
    * Says mine experienced intrusion of rock from face onto flexible conveyer, leading to force majeure event
    * Says conveyer has been cleared, mine already resumed operations
    * NOTE: BTU fell 3.4% off the open after Platts said last night, citing source, Metropolitan mine not expected to resume ops for 4 weeks after roof collapse; shares now down 1.1%

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  48. GMO - Yep, still got the core position, they shook me out of my trading position a couple days ago.

    I say if you're trading it and you're green, today's the day to take gains. It's been oversold lately(and so the pop) and could break through the 20DMA though.

    I'm not interested in giving up any core position shares for less than $6.50~$6.70, planning to keep these through the year unless the market stops playing games and prices it where it should be.

    I'm counting on the mine going to production, the core shares are house money.

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  49. GMO - I meant 50DMA, it's a hurdle that could be overcome but metals are weak in general, so it's a tossup I have doubts about.

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  50. 2nd dead modem, maybe you can take in yourself and swap for a new one. TW let's us do that here,the cost, your time.

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  51. Now this is funny.

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  52. "China Adv. Construction Materials announces $6.8 million in new high speed rail contracts"

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  53. And is promptly taken down on these news... :)

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  54. Oh, of course! The big boy's computers are programmed to shake shareholders out of their positions while the masses can only dream of having access to software that works properly.

    They love periodically reminding us of how insignificant and clueless we are.

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  55. Looks to me like the pullback in CCJ after Monday's spike up is over and CCJ is ready to resume its climb up. So I have just added 100 more shares at $42.92 and now I have 500 shares total.

    I also decided to layer my stops and placed a stop limit at $42.52/$42.48 (just below today's lows) for 200 shares and then at $42.00/$41.90 (sufficiently below Wednesday morning's spike down) for 300 shares.

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  56. Ok, at the risk of being the 1 millionth person to call a short term top, tomorrow we gap up to 1,350 and reverse and sell off to 1,300.

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  57. I will be clearing my positions today/tomorrow and waiting for prices to come to me...screw the short side for now.

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  58. TC - Look at the farce the computers are perpetrating there today. They're trying to convince shareholders the bottom is about to fall out of the metals market, LOL.

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  59. Altho i may hold on to CHGI which i think is a great value stock with an awesome chart.

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  60. I see that SLV broke out to a new high today, but ECU.TO is still lagging behind. Apparently, it is being treated now almost as a component of GDXJ (their 3-month charts look almost identical), and since GLD is still a little below its peak, GDXJ is also left behind. But that's a local phenomenon, and with silver leading gold, it shouldn't be long until GLD also breaks out to new high, which should pull up GDXJ and correspondingly ECU.TO in the short term. In the long term, however, the rising price of SLV will make the upcoming economic feasibility report from ECU look even nicer, and so I just bought 10K more shares of ECU.TO. It is now making up more than 1/3 of my portfolio...

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  61. Transcanada's proposed pipeline:

    http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2011/02/transcanada-keystone-tar-sands-oil

    Any thoughts? I kinda doubt it gets approved.

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  62. http://www.zealllc.com/2011/cucorr2.htm

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  63. 2nd- I like our Comcast service. Pretty fast and stable. I've had maybe 2 down times a year. Usually and hour or so.

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  64. Copper, yeah TOF, I would like to see a good pullback. Look at how beautiful the gold/sliver pullback gave people opportunity to buy those cheaper. I was lucky enough to sell on the rip, but been stuck in the mud watching the rebound.

    GL to all.

    Yo Bear, glad you liked that chart. It does not mean it will repeat, but the historical evidence is impressive.

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  65. TBL - Hey guys, I finally found my shoe manufacturer stock but It may be too late...?!?!?

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  66. I like the last two paragraphs:

    The bottom line is copper is due for a major correction. Sentiment in this metal is wildly bullish thanks to its recent massive upleg and new all-time highs. Copper is very overbought technically, it has rallied too far too fast by its own bull-to-date standards. And it has ignored a major trend change in its LME stockpiles in order to follow the stock markets higher. Together, all this is a recipe for a serious selloff.

    Compounding these risks, copper has an incredibly-tight positive correlation with the US stock markets. And they are due for a major correction of their own. When they roll over, copper is going to get crushed like usual. On the bright side, a copper correction will drive serious carnage in copper stocks. If you can prudently amass cash before the slide, then after this correction runs its course you can buy some of the best copper-stock bargains seen within this ongoing bull.

    the 50, 89, and 200 dma's are at 4.36, 4.14, and 3.65 on continuous copper contract.

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  67. T3D- Besides FCX, what copper plays do you follow?

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  68. Mark, have not been focused on copper really, FCX is the goto one for sure, but you could look at SCCO and the etf COPX.

    Is anybody else getting nervous about all the violence that is happening in the Middle East? Our market is ignoring it and our media praises it as democracy in the making. I bet not.

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  69. T3D- I'm nervous about it as well. Noway these regimes go down easily, and if the do, the vacuum created is even more concerning.

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  70. Well, assuming copper and the broad market don't fall back as this article leads everyone to conclude must happen, gold and silver are set to fly. This is why I feel we're going to see $1570 gold by July 4th.

    Not looking for a copper or metals pullback, the average automobile contains 1lb of molybdenum and moly is headed for $20 by July 4th.

    That's my plan, and I'm sticking to it. Okay, my backup plan involves adding if this miraculous pullback does manage to materialize.

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  71. Dissolution of repressive middle eastern regimes: I wonder if our government had ever fully considered the possibility...???

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  72. IO SHEEET. Moron of the day goes to Robear. Don't say it CP. I know, "just like any other day."

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  73. RB- Noway you could have timed the release of the lawsuit...But I know, it still Fing sucks.

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  74. Probably a dumb thought, but does Apple go higher if Steve Jobs were to pass away because he passes away? I personally hope he doesn't but if that happens I think it would almost immortalize him and cause people to want their products even more.

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  75. IO - I'm betting you purposely dumped ahead of earnings. I experienced a similar brain fart concerning GMO just a few days ago and still couldn't correct my mistake first thing this morning.

    I'm just happy TOF let me in on his RAS trade last week.

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  76. I wonder if Sarah Palin was happy to hear they were closing the Borders?

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  77. AAPL - Yeah, that does kinda make sense, but is Jobs really that bad off? I'd look for something more likely to occur?

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  78. NLY - Back inside the lower trend line now.

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  79. Holy Moly. Your not in GMO? I missed that trade.

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  80. I'm still in GMO with my core position, but I experienced a weak moment a couple days ago and sold my trading shares after they'd been constantly selling all day long a couple sessions ago.

    I paid the price today.

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  81. We won't be switched over until next Wednesday. So- MarkW will take over the lead posts!

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  82. Maxpain:

    QCOM - $50
    GMO - $6
    AAPL - $340
    QQQQ - $56

    http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

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  83. Max Pain:

    FCX - $54.5
    SCCO - $45
    TC - $13

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  84. I just glanced at the GMO chart, A break of 5.75 could easily run up to the max pain number manana.Of coarse it is almost too obvious a trade.

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  85. CP, what fraction of your portfolio is your core GMO position? If you believe in the future of GMO so as to hold a long-term core position, then the way to trade around it, IMO, is to add (blindly) on any pullback and then place GTC sell limit orders for each share lot at some desired percentage gain. This will guarantee that you will not only take advantage of the long-term growth in GMO but will also make money on the zillion of fluctuations it will have in the meantime.

    This is my strategy with ECU.TO. I have increased my core position by 30% during the recent pullback at the average price of $1.10. I will set sell limit orders for the extra shares I purchased at $1.30, $1.40 and $1.50 (after $1.50 I'll be down to my original core position -- 1/4 of my portfolio).

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  86. Maxpain 2/19:
    APA - $115
    PXP - $31

    All above are for 2/19 Op-Ex

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  87. David - GMO is a good portion of my port, ~30% if I recall.

    I should probably dump it all tomorrow and wait to buy back lower following Op-Ex.

    I'll have to consider the strategy you're describing, it seems quite similar to my current strategy (buy a dip, sell at some gain y).

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  88. GMO - my average price/share is actually negative, excluding my time invested.

    Maybe I should just leave it alone and concentrate on CADC specifically, but I'm attempting to work them both simultaneously.

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  89. Yeah, I'm thinking if GMO can retake the 50DMA it might stick and I won't have a chance to re-enter lower.

    I really screwed up selling those trading shares a couple days ago...

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  90. Actually TC looks like it needs to run a bit, it should trade close to 1:1 moly, which is $17 right now.

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  91. CP: can you please remind me what you like so much about CADC? They are in a VERY competitive business, with 100s of concrete manufacturers in Beijing alone and new ones popping up every month...

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  92. CLF - Beat estimates on strong iron ore sales.

    Okay, I'm beginning to think we won't experience a market pullback of any grat magnitude until WTIC reaches $100 and gasoline hits $4, sometime around July 4th, assuming the oil supply shark-train isn't disrupted by middle eastern strife.

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  93. CADC - It's the growth story I'm counting on, it's a low entry barrier business but CADC has been establishing important business relationships and the founder came from a large state-owned construction company. They also have patent arrangements for the material they currently deliver, longest product life time, high recyclables content, and are capable of delivering the quantities required.

    David, can you point out their largest competitors? I'd like to research them.

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  94. CP - I think RNOW is ripe to get picked off, of course I still think INFA is in play. Sounds to me like another round of deals is about to get done in SV

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  95. Dang it! I sold CLF in the low 80's awhile back, looks like it's going to break 100..DOH!

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  96. RNMOW/INFA - Got it, thanks. Looks like the market is onto them as well.

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  97. CALM - Max pain is $30, currently priced at $28.50 so there shouldn't be much downside risk until after Op-Ex. March max pain is also $30.

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  98. CP, if you send me an e-mail through CC (I am DavidV there), then I'll send you a couple of research reports I found on CADC.

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  99. David, I sent an email to what I believe is your yahoo account.

    Thx.

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  100. There ya' go, now we might not have to rely on Mr. Holmes to set us straight!

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  101. CP- Wellcome to CALM club. I have been holding and watching this stock go nowhere since I bought it. David bailed...-) May be will start seeing some action here if you get in.

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  102. 1,350 tomorrow + Gap and trap. I think we gap up and hit 1,350...then the long awaited pullback commences. How low it goes? maybe to 1,300...

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  103. RAS - Maxpain 2/19 is $3, I think this might explain recent weakness.

    TRE - MP 2/19 is $7

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