Sunday, February 20, 2011
2/20/11 Higher
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/finhome/topstories/apf;_ylt=AsCwLvMYoCVYFq6JIO2wc69O7sMF;_ylu=X3oDMTE1aDBnMjk0BHBvcwM5BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNuYXNkYXFuZWFyczE-/*http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/110220/us_wall_street_week_ahead.html?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Technology companies in the S&P 500, a close proxy for the Nasdaq composite, are up 8.4 percent so far this year, about 2 percentage points more than the index as a whole. Last year, tech companies returned 10 percent after dividends, compared with the 15 percent return of the full index.
And tech stocks as a whole may be doing better than index returns show. That's because large companies -- with the exception of Apple -- that were hot stocks 10 years ago have matured and their stocks have stalled. "The Microsofts, Yahoos, and Googles of the world aren't growing like they used to," says Michael Sansoterra, manager of the $510 million RidgeWorth Large Cap Growth fund.
Bigger companies have a larger weighting in the Nasdaq index than smaller ones. Microsoft, for instance, makes up 5.6 percent of the index. The company has fallen 6.6 percent over the past 12 months.
And now to the question on the mind of any investor who was once burned by a bubble: Is it too late to get in?
Stock valuations certainly don't suggest so. Tech stocks in the S&P 500 are priced at 13.3 times earnings, which is just 0.3 more than the broad index. Not only that, but they are cheaper than they were a year ago, when they cost 15.4 times earnings. With stocks trading at reasonable levels, it's harder to make an epic mistake. Such as, say, buying technology stocks in June 2001, when they cost 128.3 times earnings.
"I'm still finding a lot of good values out there," says Samuel Dedio, manager of the $108 million Artio U.S. Smallcap fund. "There looks to be a lot more upside ahead of this."
Sounds like the NDQ is currently priced lower, on a P/E basis, than a year ago. So we likely continue higher next week.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Ture probably, and it appears the Chinese trade agreement lowers the barriers for US tech exports. Did you catch the list of companies involved? I guess we're moving right along with the program that never was formally announced, MILITARY WEAPONS export!
ReplyDeleteA sad testament, if you ask me.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/news/international/america_exports_weapons_full.fortune/index.htm#weapons
CSCO - Was FUBAR'd on free service access at the Mobile World Congress:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/02/18/technology/mwc_wifi/index.htm
ALU - RB - I'd be willing to say this 52wk high is one that's likely to move higher.
ReplyDeleteWhat say you?
TOF - CHGI - Even though I haven't been able to get a clear understand ing of their hard assets, here's a nice testament, one high on my priorities list when it comes to DD on Chinese stocks:
ReplyDelete"we have sufficient capital to fund all of our raw material needs for our new capacity expansion through our RMB 180 million loan from China Construction Bank."
Man, not a whole lot out there on the web for CHGI.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's gonna suck.
ALU, here is something I wrote up about them. Since many of you guys here are techies, what types of holes can you poke here. You may also want to watch the presentation. Potential if they properly execute seems enormous.
ReplyDeleteObviously, buying on a pull back is preferred, but I'm not sure it is going to happen here.
ALU LightRadio
http://www.thomson-webcast.net/uk/dispatching/?event_id=8b6ec5993b492ac6c37d5045edf26554&portal_id=cd2e2cfc37c987fa20cd04f5cff6dea4&language=en
Lightradio is the size of a cube which may be a transformational technology for satisfying the growing demand for mobile broadband. This cube which can be scaled could replace the current base stations and current antennas/towers being used to transmit broadband.
Lightradio provides three benefits:
a) less carbon output
b) increases mobile broadband reach
c) towers can be eliminated at some point or Lightradio can be integrated into current towers
The cost of running a network could be reduced by a factor of two. The demand for mobile data is expected to explode by a factor of thirty in the years to come. It is expected that this will become a $1 trillion industry.
Lightradio is compatible with 2G, 3G, and 4G and will scale increasing with G’s. It has a semiconductor chipset which is developed by Freescale Semi. ALU does not have a
Non-exclusive right to chipset with Freescale, but they are a defining/significant partner with Freescale and ALU will have first mover advantage and be first to deploy it. This technology ties in with cloud and it provides bridges. It also works in the full wireless spectrum of 400 to 4000 (MHz?).
They have partnered with development of Lightradio with two other companies Freescale Semi and Hewlett Packard. They have five mobile operators lined up who want to use this technology. Three of the five are willing to go public. They are Verizon, Orange, and China Mobile.
ALU intends to bring this to life and says it is real.
What could go wrong?
a) What is their lead over competitors
b) What is the potential of competitors leapfrog them
ALU’s presentation indicates that they have tied up major partners and mobile providers which should give them a significant first mover advantage. It seems that it is a matter now of execution and the type of long-term agreements they work out with the five mobile operators. It is an evolutionary process that will evolve over 1-5 years. Thus the opportunity may still be very early even though price has recently appreciated 77%.
ALU - T3D - First to market usually wins, assuming there's a market and the timing is right.
ReplyDeleteObviously in the longer horizon, it might all boil down to whether or not ALU has some patented technological edge that cannot be easily duplicated. I doubt that makes much difference to you, so I won't bother going there.
I guess what counts the most in your time horizon (which if I were a trader and not an investor would appreciate), is what their order book looks like for next week.
I bet it looks fantastic, even though nobody aside from perhaps, ALU, has the foggiest idea.
Mark - Why is tomorrow gonna suck? It could be the best day you ever had if you wanted it to be (Two beers away from a beautiful day, if I can just keep em' down!).
ReplyDeleteALU - On second thought, I bet their order book doesn't look anything like GD/HON/NOC/BA/GE order books will while all world governments are busily ramping up limitless spending of taxpayer monies to proliferate pointless American military weapons.
ReplyDeleteOur congressmen (military weapons salesmen) are the only ones who get an entire week's paid vacation for President's day.
And you guys are pissed at Bernanke! What a bunch of sorry-asses!
ReplyDeleteRTN - Add this one to the previous list of outperformers while you're having such a grand time beating up on Uncle Ben!
ReplyDeleteCP, part of the tech edge is the Freescale semi chipset. I'm more interested in what their book is going to look like as mobile usage explodes in the years ahead. A lot of ifs.
ReplyDeletegotta jump, but to get a really good understanding people have to listen to the presentation and Q & A.
Freescale semi chipset?
ReplyDelete"Freescale expands Xtrinsic sensing portfolio with intelligent radar technology
77 GHz silicon germanium chipset advances automotive safety by enabling vehicles to sense potential crash situations
MUNICH (electronica 2010) – Nov. 9, 2010 – Freescale Semiconductor is now providing samples of 77 gigahertz (GHz) silicon germanium (SiGe) integrated chipsets to select customers for use in automotive radar systems. Freescale’s radar solutions provide long- and mid-range functionality, allowing automotive systems to monitor the environment around the vehicle to help prevent crashes.
The automotive industry’s efforts to achieve a goal of zero automotive-related fatalities, along with consumer demand and government legislation, are driving adoption of advanced automotive safety systems. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), radar and camera systems are expected to become government-mandated in the future. "
http://media.freescale.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196520&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1492129&highlight
CP- I can only agree with you when it comes to "Security Assistance". That line item under the Foreign Aid budget has been a substantial off-line addition to the Defense budget for as long as I can remember and is added profit to all defense contractors and other companies too. Makes me wonder what will happen to our economy if and when the spigot is tightened.
ReplyDeleteillini - It appears the only real growth occuring is in the American defense equipment industry, courtesy of our desire to spread "democracy".
ReplyDeleteTo hell with everything else.
Oh, and to add insult to injury, offshoring of defense industry component manufacturing is in full swing!
ReplyDeleteThe monster that ate your employment prospects:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703803904576152492475125636.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_markets
Commercial Real Estate Bounce?
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/02/14/news/economy/shopping-mall-rebound.fortune/index.htm?iid=RNM
Here's how Bernanke caused high food prices:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_09/b4217007869373.htm
I'm mad at you guys. I just got caught up on the world news. Why didn't we pick up some OIL on Friday. A little SU to hedge OIL revolution. I guess its my fault. Maybe I should go to cnn instead of just being concerned with hoody news on the ticker.
ReplyDeleteHere's an example of freescale, you might actually call it downscale, or even austerity:
ReplyDelete"California Gov. Jerry Brown is requiring 48,000 state workers to turn in their government cell phones by June 1st."
RB - We discussed SU last weekend, didn't we?
ReplyDeleteT3D/CP- I actually listened to the entire ALU presentation...And I'm impressed/get it.
ReplyDeleteT3D- What was the date of the presentation? It was before earnings, I know that, but is that what caused the pop?
RB- Just stick ANOTHER hot poker in my eye regarding WTIC. I was too busy Friday with useless mental masturbation it seems.
I don't know guys, the dollar chart MIGHT be establishing a new trend, things could get dicey and force us to make some quick decisions...
ReplyDeleteCP- Uncle buck....Yep, I agree. I get the sense shakey hands are putting cash into US equities and the dollar will soon follow.
ReplyDeleteRB- If you and I are going to roll at future soccer tournys...grow a pair. I need to know you have my back if things get dicey with the soccer Mom bitches. That's a tough crowd.
Good or bad for RBY? I think it might take the spotlight off them.
ReplyDeleteMDW - "Midway Gold Responds to BCSC Comments on Technical Disclosure
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Midway Gold Corp. (the “Company”) advises that in connection with its preliminary prospectus filed February 2, 2011 (the “Prospectus”), it has received comments from the British Columbia Securities Commission (the “BCSC”) regarding the Company’s disclosure of technical and scientific information about its Midway, Pan and Gold Rock properties.
The BCSC’s comments relate to the Company’s compliance with various provisions of National Instrument 43-101 of the Canadian Securities Administrators (“NI 43-101”). To address the BCSC’s comments, the Company intends to file updated NI 43-101"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Midway-Gold-Responds-to-BCSC-bw-3750668800.html?x=0&.v=1
Oil futures are only up 1% Is country risk already priced in or are people underestimating the risk. Everything always stays calm and orderly in the Mideast right? Hope nothing happens tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteBTW- WTF is the allure of the majors anyway. I just looked back 10 years and all are at about the same price they were in 2007. AUY is worth less, of course :)
ReplyDeleteThat Dr. Cosa dude on the CC site would always point out what crappy performance they would have. It was funny when Bill would call him a non professional and an amateur and get all huffy. All you have to do is look at a chart of a major vs gold and see how right the DR. COSA was.
ReplyDelete"AUY is worth less, of course." Don't say that Shark might be secretly reading.
ReplyDeleteRB- AUY...Yeah, I was trolling with a big bright shinny lure :)
ReplyDeleteI remember watching that PBS market news show 4 years ago when I was/still an an idiot. I'm pretty sure I bought GG @ GG at about 42 on that call.
Yeah, and gold is considerably higher than it was 10 years ago, shouldn't major miners be at least a little higher if the market was convinced gold prices are going to stick?
ReplyDeleteMining is a tough trade there is so much currency and interest rate voodoo that can effect the stock. I owned GG myself. i would get so pissed off when Gold would go up and GG would go down. Hell i owned AUY. That sucker would go down in any market. Or as Shark would say. It would go down like a.....
ReplyDeleteGG - I owned it a couple years ago around $42, made a little bit off trading it but nothing fantastic. I think you've got to catch it at the bottom of the channel if you wanna make money off trading it.
ReplyDeleteJust this past couple of weeks I watched gold move up while ABX moved down, I think the computers try to convince you somethings wrong and shake you out.
ReplyDeleteI sold the ABX at the same price I bought it.
oh i forgot. i remember . The infamous hedge book. The hedge book was always the excuse for my stocks poor performance.. I think the hedge book is the way for the executives to rob the company.
ReplyDeleteI think it would be great if someone over on CC were to ask why the majors are at the same level as 10 years ago, it's a great question.
ReplyDeleteI did see where BC has been concentrating on jr's though, he said something about the majors being caught up in politics.
I bet some of them have hedged their gold to lock in prices, and that's keeping share price from reflecting gold prices.
Yep, hedge book, that's what's going on...
ReplyDeleteSo how do we take advantage of the hedge book, wait for gold to sell off and if miners follow, buy then up?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure it's worth trying to figure out.
I just took a gander at the markets for the first time in 4 days or so. With much luck, my Q puts don't seem to be down too much due to the NDX underperformance (a big thank you to AAPL).
ReplyDeleteHere is what I see from Khao San Road:
-The S+P is an unprecedented 36 points above its monthly bollinger band. I'm still shocked as the traditional "rejection" has not taken place over the past 4-6 weeks.
-The 100 day put-call ratio sits at .84, at the precise point where previous downturns started.
-Smart money dipped to 25% last week (where I entered my puts). The market "pulled back" .2% and the smart money jumped up to 33% the next day! I've never seen anything like this happen before. It usually takes a deep pullback over several days/weeks to get the smart money bullish percentage moving in the northerly direction.
-XLE has an 84.17 rsi which is practically unheard of.
-AAPL has traded down to its 20 day moving average which should provide support (for the entire market?)
-There are multiple ipo's scheduled for the not so distant future. I can't see how the brokers can let the market fall apart prior to these going public. Does anyone know the big dates?
-The dollar chart looks like crap again. We know what that means.
Per Sentimentrader this week:
ReplyDelete"S&P has 11 straight closes > opens. Only 4th time since '82 (1/8/92, 8/30/93, 9/14/95). Each one saw a loss ~3% next 3 weeks
Merrill Finds That Money Manager Confidence In Stocks At All Time Record High http://is.gd/4EUo0b
Not sure this stuff matters anymore, but NR7 day at 52wk high with low volume saw lower close w/in 10 days 11/12 times, avg 2 days.
Option expiration occurred the day before an exchange holiday 28 times. The day after the holiday (Tuesday) was positive only 36% of the time, with an average return of -0.5%.
If the S&P had set a new 52-week high anytime in the past 10 days, then the week following those occurrences were positive 2 out of 8 times.
We looked for another time period that saw the S&P 500 rally at least 10% over the past quarter (trailing three months), and have at least 20 days when the S&P hit a 52-week high during that time. Also, at no point could the S&P lose more than -2% over a 10-day period.
So, basically, a substantial rally, with multiple new highs, and with only the tiniest of pullbacks.
On average, it took the S&P 263 days before it suffered more than a -5% pullback over a 10-day period (or really any kind of meaningful pullback, for that matter). Strikingly, the index rallied an average of 18% before that happened.
Out of 6 precedents, only 1 led to an imminent pullback. The others all took a long time and at least 15% higher prices before peaking."
-So all in all, I see a mixed picture. I am leaning towards closing my puts on Tuesday morning (should we not have a gap down) and sitting until something more extreme develops.
Dang CP since i got my thinking cap, we have been thinking a like. The pass word is Hedge book.
ReplyDeleteJesse, I like shorting. I'm negative that way, but I have put myself on a shorting moratorium until a moving average is breached then I look for a consolidation area below that average for an entry with a stop above. It will happen at some point. Maybe.
ReplyDeleteAUY always seems to have funny stuff messing up the numbers, like hedging losses.
ReplyDeleteMidway is bizarre to say the least, IMO. They came up with THEIR OWN IN HOUSE ESTIMATES for their 43-101, instead of having a reputable 3rd party take the data and come up with estimates like I think you are supposed to do.
If RBY's bulk samples come in at or higher than the estimates given on their 43-101, I would wonder how anyone could argue the accuracy after that? Given that those numbers are coming soon, I'm guess they might play a role in determining the outcome of the argument. Again, though, we don't even know what is being questioned for sure. Short term it could move the stock, but long term its what they did at what cost that matters. I sort of think there is a lot of it discounted out of the price, and given that every hole seems to come back with grams per ton or ounces per ton, I sort of think the whole thing is a charade.
I should have said most holes. What do I know, anyway?
ReplyDeleteCB - "I sort of think the whole thing is a charade."
ReplyDeleteThx, obviously you're referring to the recall of RBY's 43-101.
LIWA - Short float 19%, do you think Muddy Waters is preparing to launch their next smear campaign?
ReplyDeleteYes, CP
ReplyDeleteWill Gadafi become appointed Venezuelan Vice President?
ReplyDeleteCB - Okay. BTW, don't worry about those holes, I'm confident someone here can provide clear instruction on how to locate them.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad I froze all the tomatoes this year, might need them for the DC protests.
ReplyDeleteWTIC is up 4 bucks. RB- NOW is it OK to grab the poker?
ReplyDeleteOne reason not to live in a tent is they're too easily set ablaze.
ReplyDeleteFrom Stratfor this morning...
ReplyDeleteRed Alert: Clashes In Tripoli
February 21, 2011
Emerging reports early Feb. 21 indicate the unrest in Libya might have spread from eastern Libya to the capital of Tripoli. According to initial reports, heavy gunfire was heard in central Tripoli and in other districts with Al Jazeera reporting 61 people killed in Tripoli on Feb. 21. Other unconfirmed reports say that protesters attacked the headquarters of Al-Jamahiriya Two television and Al-Shababia as well as other government buildings in Tripoli overnight. According to Saudi-owned al-Arabiya, the government-owned People’s Conference Centre where the General People’s Congress (parliament) meets when it is in session in Tripoli was set on fire. U.K. energy firm British Petroleum reportedly said it would evacuate its personnel from Libya and suspend its activities due to massive unrest. Spain’s Foreign Minister Trinidad Jimenez said on Feb. 21 that the EU member states are coordinating possible evacuations of European nationals from Libya. A Turkish Airlines flight was arranged to evacuate Turkish citizens from Benghazi but was denied the opportunity to land by Libyan authorities and returned to Turkey
Study claims cheaper to ship oil sands crude to Asia than piping it to Texas oil refineries, native groups resisting Canadian coastal exports:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/17/us-enbridge-gateway-idUSTRE71G4IF20110217?pageNumber=2
I'd be surprised if we don't open up near green. If I traded /ES i'd be a buyer.
ReplyDeleteJesse - we still have the Twitter / LinkedIn / Groupon and possibly even Facebook this year and there's no way that the euphoria for stocks dies down before those IPO's. No way.
CP, that's why I'm thinking CHGI has a lot of room to run:
(1) China is expanding their nuclear program significantly and graphite is a big component in those reactors.
(2) Lithium ion batteries in the new electric cars use a lot of graphite.
(3) Supply is way too low for the increased demand because of a long time of neglecting mining for graphite.
CHGI has some issues with their balance sheet in my mind that are red flags to me. I don't like how they have extended what seems like generous terms to customers (as evidenced by the spike in receivables); however, sales have grown rapidly so i'll wait to see if this goes down some next quarter(s). They have BDO as their accounting firm, which is a major plus, so I'm a little more comfortable with this. Also, they just got a pretty large loan from China Construction Bank and from what I've read it was a loan to cover advances to customers, which means there is high demand for what they're selling. ONly time will tell how these receivable balances go down. The loan they got is due this year and there is a chance it doesn't get extended so that's another risk. I doubt it won't because there seems to be a huge amount of demand for what they're selling (they doubled capacity in 2010 and are doubling again in 2011 so that's a pretty good sign the demand is there) but you never know.
My thinking is:
(1) increasing demand = doubling capacity
(2) nuclear graphite has 50% margins versus ~20% for their other products
(3) assuming the above and that they can do about $.07/share in EPS per quarter right now, I could see them doing $0.15-$0.20 EPS per quarter in a year. That's $0.60 to $.80/share. Even a 10 P/E brings it to $6 to $8/share. A 15 P/E = $9 to $12/share.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteI hear you. I knew it when i finally looked at the paper. What a no brainer trade. What was the risk? THe catalysts were all pointing up. Long weekend, Ohhh! Let me borrow one of those hot pokers.
Crude futures on FinViz continuing up all day. Now $91.54. Silver up big time. $33.86
ReplyDeleteTOF - You do of course realize it's considered a normal business practice in China to carry a larger receivables, my understanding is the cycle is considerably longer.
ReplyDeleteConsider this though: Who's name is one those receivables, state owned enterprises? If so, those receivables are as good as cash, and can actually be used to pay debt.
OIL - I hedged my wallet by filling the car today. LOL
ReplyDeleteSeems like Europe freaked out and sold off. What's up with that, aren't they able to go it alone for a day?
ReplyDeleteUCO - Look at that chart and tell me if you see something different than I do... It's screaming BUY!
ReplyDeleteToo good to be true? WTIC storage has been running high due to oil sands production, which explains the recent price differential between sweet and sour....
Jesse - Hey bud, aren't you going to provide us with a trip report from Asia? How's it going over there, are they all unemployed standing in bread lines?
ReplyDeleteViet-Nam - As many as 13 nuclear power reactors to be installed. Singapore and Malaysia will also install nuclear power reactors.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-14/vietnam-power-outages-risk-harming-foreign-investment-as-price-rises-loom.html
S&P futures are down 1% now, but silver is up 1%, so which way will ECU.TO open tomorrow? I pretty much ran out of all my cash buying ECU on Thursday and Friday, so it would suck to see ECU gap down on continue down tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteJOYG - Sure is doing much better than base metal miners, better times coming for miners?
ReplyDeleteTOF: why do you think CHGI was trading at $0.5 Do you know how much the price of graphite they sell has increased in price since October (while the price of CHGI shares increased by a factor of 5)? Do you know the sensitivity of CHGI to the price of graphite and what their earnings will be (at the current sales capacity) if the price of graphite remains flat from now on? I think that these are the necessary questions to answer before putting any decent amount of money into CHGI...
ReplyDeleteDavid, how can a silver miner stock be falling with silver reaching new highs? Someone must be playing with it.
ReplyDeleteCHGI - The entire Chinese mining industry has been under reorganization, apparently CHGI is consolidating 5 mining properties.
ReplyDeleteI assume this was the purpose of their loan, but note they didn't claim the loan would cover their capital equipment costs.
"David, how can a silver miner stock be falling with silver reaching new highs?"
ReplyDeleteEasy -- the miners often follow the broad market, probably because investors are simply reducing risk when fear is up in the air. ECU spiked up on Friday morning but then nosedived together with the broad market, and then simply forgot to recover in the afternoon.
CP: what new ideas about CADC have you picked up after reading the research reports I sent you?
ReplyDeleteABX - This one faked me out in the same way, gold was rising while ABX was falling. It turned around and began moving up almost immediately after I sold my shares at break-even.
ReplyDeleteCADC - I've been thinking about this one more, and haven't changed my mind concerning the longer time horizon.
ReplyDeleteI believe there is liable to be another short seller attack on Chinese small-caps prior to end of March, so I'm looking for entry/add opportunities between now and then.
10K's are due end of March, so I suspect the likes of Muddy Waters, etc. are liable to be publishing a flurry of bearish "research".
I'm either going to add to CADC, or establish a position in LIWA/CHGC, most likely LIWA, based on prices.
At some point I also want to pick up some uranium, they seem to be coming off now.
ReplyDeleteBut then, maybe I may be trying to concentrate too much on the infrastructure play, I should probably think about something else.
ReplyDeleteDavid - This is one of the things that caught my attention when I first started looking more at CHGI (after noting the major trends in China that would increase demand for their products):
ReplyDelete>>from 10q<<
"Approximately 40% to 50% of our graphite electrodes are sold directly to end users in China, primarily consisting of steel manufacturers. All other sales are made to over 200 distributors located throughout 22 provinces in China. Our distributors then sell our products to end customers both in China and in foreign countries, including, among others, Japan, the United States, Spain, England, South Korea and India.
Until the third quarter of 2008, we experienced rapid growth in our operations. From the fourth quarter of 2008 until the end of 2009, however, as a result of the global economic crisis, the steel industry in general slowed, which caused our revenues and gross margin to decline significantly. Specifically, we had a significant decline in sales of graphite electrodes. The industry started to recover in 2010, and in particular during the third quarter of 2010. We experienced increased sales of our different product types during the three months ended September 30, 2010 including a disproportionate increase in sales of lower margin semi-processed graphite products and graphite blanks, which would explain the decrease in our profit margins during the third quarter of 2010 as compared to 2009."
(cont on next post)
We expect the increased demand in higher margin ultra graphite electrode and fine grain and high purity graphite products to extend through 2010, primarily due to anticipated growth in the iron and steel automobile, aerospace ad defense industries in the PRC. As dicussed below under "Recent Developments" we anticipate increasing our production capacity in the near future in order to take advantage of these industry trends. In addition, we have attempted to position ourselves during the period of increased market demand by obtaining short term loans in the aggregate of approximately $24 million from local bank in China during the nine months ended September 30, 2010.
ReplyDelete22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As previously disclosed, we entered a letter of intent to acquire Chiyu Carbon Graphite Ltd. Negotiations relative to this potential acquisition are still ongoing. It is not certain that this acquistion wil be consumated in 2010, if at all.
Recent Development
The Company has started construction on new forming and baking plants with an initial budgeted investment outlay of approximately $13.5 million since beginning of September 2010. The expansion will further increase the company’s production capacity to meet the growing demand for high purity products in the global market. Construction for both plants is planned to be completed by the end of June 2011. The budget for the forming and baking plants is $6 million and $7.5 million, respectively. The new forming plant will specialize in manufacturing large size ultra high graphite electrodes, high purity graphite and fine gain graphite. In addition, the new baking plant will have 36 furnaces, totaling 160 meters in length, and will include 30,000 tons capacity, making it the largest baking plant in China’s graphite industry.
Currently, steel plants in China have been upgrading their furnace facilities and created a high demand for large size ultra high graphite electrode, which are different products from general graphite electrode. The margin of large size ultra high graphite electrode is high due to the shortage of supply to the demand. We estimate the trend will continue for the near future. Our new forming plant will specialize in manufacturing high margin products including large size ultra high graphite electrode, high purity graphite and fine gain graphite.
David- If it makes you feel even worse, I had an order in for ECU @ 1.06 on Friday.
ReplyDeleteSo it's not only that demand is growing significantly due to steel production rebound, nuclear energy growth in China, and electric car growth, but also that they are selling more higher margins products as a result of China forcing Steel plants to upgrade their furnaces. From what I've read, these products have margins of about 50% versus about 20-25% for their graphite electrodes products. I wouldn't be surprised if they report 0.15/share in this quarter or next. If that happens, this stock will explode up to $6 or so.
ReplyDeleteAgain, the big red flag in my mind is their receivables. I'm somewhat more at ease because BDO is their auditor, but it's still a risk.
I wanted to hire BDO for my audit, but couldn't afford them. I had to settle for BO.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the company got a $27 Million loan from China Construction Bank in the fall of 2010, the balance of which is due in one year. According to the company "Proceeds of the loans will be used by us to purchase raw materials, specifically focusing on higher purity graphite and fine grain graphite materials." Assuming these raw materials are the high graphite electrodes that carry 50% margins, that could be the equivalent of $55 Million in sales related to these products. And given that the loan is due in a year, then there's a decent chance that the loan was for sales of products occurring in the year following the loan. Historically the company has rolled over their loans. So if they can generate profits of $27 Million from the sales of these products less the roughly $6 Million in operating expenses and $2 Million in interest expense (their int exp on the loan was about 5.5%), then perhaps they could do an additional $19 Million in profits (or $0.95 EPS). That's how my thinking went when I first came across all of this info...
ReplyDeleteMark coming out swinging!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Doing anything I can think of to avoid looking at the crude futes again :)
ReplyDeleteDavid- I'm sure you've figured it out, but Sliver is up 5.5% from Fridays close.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone remind me again why overthrowing oppressive regimes isn't incredibly positive longer term?
ReplyDeleteBEXP might be a tell tomorrow guys. Oilly as hell and 100% land based in the good ole USofA. If it spikes at the open and then sells off, watch out.
ReplyDeleteOverall though, I don't expect a huge down day tomorrow...At all.
ReplyDeleteI heard what I thought was a very reasoned take on Lybia on the radio today. About 1 hr. long. The guests take was Momar the Formar is toast...and soon.
TOF- It's an unknown void. The obvious concern is radical Muslim extremists fill that void.
ReplyDeleteNow we are selling our Natty resources to Australia.
ReplyDeleteOKLAHOMA CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) today announced it has agreed to sell all of the company’s interests in approximately 487,000 net acres of leasehold and producing natural gas properties in the Fayetteville Shale play in central Arkansas to BHP Billiton Petroleum, a wholly owned subsidiary of BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE:BHP; ASX:BHP), for $4.75 billion in cash before certain deductions and standard closing adjustments. The transaction includes existing net production of approximately 415 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day and midstream assets with approximately 420 miles of pipeline. As part of the transaction, Chesapeake has agreed to provide essential services for up to one year for BHP Billiton’s Fayetteville properties for an agreed-upon fee. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2011.
Great. Let's just fucking give it all away so we can buy it back from someone else.
Gold/Silver giving back gains. USD stronger and crude holding gains. ES gaining ground. Anyone see it the way I do. All sorts of money will be looking to the safety of US equities/USD. Been thinking this way for a while.
ReplyDeleteMark-- Maybe, but not yet a trend.
ReplyDeleteIllini- Yep, I agree. I just have been thinking Uncle Sam might not be such a scary investment after all. T's will be key tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteRB's secret lover might have the last laugh.
As to Chesapeake, I never have trusted that company ever since the CEO/Board started buying back shares a few years ago when they were at a peak. CEO is also one of those extravagant guys.
ReplyDeleteIllini- I should say, I have no skin in this trade right now. Almost all cash and one real position in TRE, which I added to Friday morning. Other than that, nada.
ReplyDeleteI consider LEXVF NADA!!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's time to trout out that crazy Iranian dude for Lybia! You know the one I mean :)
ReplyDeleteTRE...Wow, where did that come from?
ReplyDeleteTRE- JB has been in this one for a while. I got in at about 6.18 on the last spike down. Believe it or not, there is a guy @ SOH that I respect and talk to. The idea came from him.
ReplyDelete"a guy @ SOH that I respect." You Two timing SOB.
ReplyDeleteMOG's take on a question from me tonight...
ReplyDeleteThe dissolution of the oligarchy, reminds me a lot of Russia only faster. I think it really is the fear of massive discord over the next few years that is driving oil markets, not the immediate interruption of supply. OPEC still has 3.6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, down from 6 a year or so ago so they can cover Libya (1.6 million a day/but will not likely be severely disrupted), Bahrain, Egypt, etc disruptions. GS recommended, and I agree a buy on Apache, just as you had, oversold and little real interruption. The one to watch is Algeria, a bigger Kahuna with a lot of European interests and a swing player on LNG. I remain bullish on oil, soft on US nat gas until fall, for two years. The JVs/purchases (today BHP/Chesapeake, last week China INc and Encana) will keep bucks flowing to the nat gas side.
Headed back to Calgary tomorrow, more snow and ice !
You guys need to pay me for this chit :)
Graphite - Just to add a little background to the graphite electrodes subject, there is an effort to increase materials recycling in China, and these electrodes are used in those electric furnaces that melt scrap.
ReplyDeleteOIL - Once oil reaches $100 (pump gasoline $4), I think we can kiss the equities rally good by.
ReplyDeleteHey man, I've come to realize I'm the worst stock picker there is. BTW, I prefer Hoe.
ReplyDeleteWTIC @ $100...I agree.
ReplyDeleteYes, Hoe is much better than Two Timer
ReplyDeleteI don't quite get the connection between lesbian and oil, myself.
ReplyDeleteI don't think oil can stay this high this early in an economic recovery but if it does go much higher, I'm gonna want to short it.
ReplyDelete"I don't quite get the connection between lesbian and oil, myself."
ReplyDeleteOh, CP... Don't make me post a link :)
All right guys. I'm off to bed. EARLY. Tomorrow should be really fun.
"Global demand will require the mining industry to mine, process and move more materials and minerals in the next 20 years than it has in the past 10 000 years, says Rio Tinto CE diamonds and minerals Harry Kenyon-Slaney"
ReplyDeleteJOYG ?
"I wouldn't be surprised if they report 0.15/share in this quarter or next. If that happens, this stock will explode up to $6 or so."
ReplyDeleteTOF, you said that they posted 0.07/share during the previous quarter, and their stock was trading at $0.50. So it means that the market is used to assigning a P/E of 2 to this company. Why do you think the P/E assigned to it will change?
"David- If it makes you feel even worse, I had an order in for ECU @ 1.06 on Friday."
ReplyDeleteMark, you tried to get cute with ECU once again and you didn't get any, right? :)
S&P - I have the 200DMA @1160, new target?
ReplyDelete