Wednesday, February 2, 2011
2/2/11 All Right Now
This one should take you right back to 1970.
The lyrics take me right back to VXX.
There she stood in the street, smiling from her head to her feet
I said, "Hey, what is this?"
Now baby maybe, maybe she's in need of a kiss
I said, "Hey, what's your name, baby?
Maybe we can see things the same
Now don't you wait or hesitate
Let's move before they raise the parking rate"
All right now baby, it's all right now
Took her home to my place, watching every move on her face
She said, "Look, what's your game?
Are you tryin' to put me in shame?"
"Baby", I said, "Slow, slow, don't go so fast
Don't you think that love can last?"
She said, "Love, lord above, now you're gonna trick me in love"
All right now baby, it's all right now
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Asian markets are basically closed for the Lunar New Year.
ReplyDeleteTOF, CP: sorry for stopping today's rally in RAS right in its tracks by buying some. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - don't forget mark...you have to apologize to him too
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling these coal stocks are far away from topping out. I want to buy more btu on any pullback
ReplyDeleteTOF- Did you get my email last night?
ReplyDeleteI'm watching 'live coverage' of the 'riots' in Egypt. First take? They need to send the boys from Oakland over there to make this thing really pop.
Nice!! Gonna be 75-80 degrees here this weekend.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to me...
ReplyDeleteMELBOURNE/NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - QBE Insurance , Australia's biggest insurance group, is in talks to buy U.S.
insurer Balboa from Bank of America , a media report said on Thursday, sparking talk that QBE would have to sell new
shares to help fund the deal.
Balboa could fetch $1.5 billion to $2 billion, said an investment banker not involved in the deal.
Negotiations are advanced for a deal that includes up-front payments as well as an amount based on Balboa's future
performance, Bloomberg reported. A deal could be reached this week, it added.
QBE declined to comment on the report, but put its shares on trading halt on Thursday saying it would update the market by
early Friday on several topics including "acquisition activity".
Two analysts speculated that at A$1.5-2 billion, QBE would have to raise new equity to fund more than half the deal.
"The market's concern around a large acquisition would be around any capital raising to fund the deal," CLSA analyst Daniel
Toohey said.
A capital raising would come at a tough time with QBE's shares having tumbled by one-third since the end of 2009 due to a
string of profit warnings and earnings disappointments.
Bank of America declined to comment on the report.
It said last year that it planned to sell Balboa as part of asset sales to raise $3 billion to complete its repayment of U.S.
government bailout funds.
The bank has since raised the funds -- meeting the final requirement laid out by the Federal Reserve -- by selling large
stakes in BlackRock and China Construction Bank.
Mark - Okay I'm curious, from what facet is the potential Balboa deal interesting to you?
ReplyDeleteDavid - Sheesh, at least you could've taken a larger position! ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF - If you like coal here, what about clean coal conversion/pollution abatement? Maybe too difficult to nail down a benefactor?
Everybody was Kung-Fu fighting..... da,da,da,da do,do,do,do....
ReplyDeleteDavid - You're killing me man, I think your limit order stopped the CADC advance as well!
ReplyDeleteYou could balance me out by shorting GMO, thanks!
ReplyDeleteJust to pile on. I was hoping he was going to go long VXX again as well. I need to get that thing moving lower. :)
ReplyDeleteYeah, he screwed us all on that move!
ReplyDeleteDamn it, David!
It's just the beginning, guys -- don't forget that I also closed my SPY puts and my TWM -- so all your long positions are in for some serious troubles tomorrow... :)
ReplyDeleteAs for GMO, sorry to break it to you CP, but I bought that one as well...
ReplyDeleteDavid, A little favor to ask, Could you wake up a little earlier so we can have time to make "adjustments" to our market focus. Scrambling around right at the close is a real pain.
ReplyDeleteCara-
ReplyDeleteThe longer the S&P 500 fails to rise through the resistance at 1300-1305, the more nervous I become. Yesterday afternoon I raised more cash again in the small cap accounts, moving to 60.9% cash in the Emerging Markets accounts and 54.0% in the Developed Markets accounts. This is pretty close to my limit. From here I move into the inverse ETF's with some of that cash. I came close yesterday afternoon in starting that program, actually messing up an order and then deciding to hold it. Let's see what today brings. But I am telling you this because, while I do see stronger prices ahead, based on reasonably good earnings and guidance to date, I also now think the sell-off in precious metals was the first act of the play with the rest of the actors to follow.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Well, not too much to report today. The indices ended flat. It never ceases to amaze me that everybody and their brother has to have stocks on one day and then the next day is a shoulder shrug.
Oh well. This is actually quite common. Sometimes you get a big up day followed by a pause day and then another big up day.
"Sometimes" is the key word in that sentence. Instead of depending on that, I just look at which way the big blue arrow is pointing.
Gold and Silver look poised to make another leg down. Be careful though, they can often have 9 lives.
Most other sectors, like the market, remain in solid uptrends. I'm going to spend time on this later today in the chart show.
Long SFD.
ReplyDelete"I also now think the sell-off in precious metals was the first act of the play with the rest of the actors to follow. "
ReplyDeleteThat's what I've been pondering for about two months, the divergence between PM's and base metals is an odd phenomenon. I wonder what happens to the rest of the market if PM's crash from here, if PM's are an ominous signal, or perhaps this time a positive signal where traders are moving from "PM safety" to risk.
We might learn something soon, as China's market re-opens, PM's may make a move. I read somewhere physical gold is hard to come by in the middle east and I wonder if their banks are closed and what happens when they reopen.
I think the next catalyst will be Friday's jobs report.
ReplyDeleteLCD TV market is saturated, sales are slowing. Most homes have made their purchase.
ReplyDeleteTRID is green today.
Anatomy Of A Bull Trap newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5220 comments) on Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:19 #78918
ReplyDeleteWere I to design one, it would start with yet another 'buy-the-dip' opportunity. Which looks remarkably similar to what we have this morning. Throw out a few encouraging comments about the unemployment rate- 'We're likely to see continued improvement in jobs on Friday, Mike' to widen the net. Drive futures mildly lower overnight- modestly lower ahead of the announcement- run it up briefly on the announcement- then gap it down hard at the open. Bulls will double down into Friday's close. Gap it down harder Monday morning.
All fiction.
Royal Gold Reports Record Revenue and Free Cash Flow for Second Quarter Fiscal 2011
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is BAC green for?
ReplyDeleteBill is capitulating, now we can rally balls to the wall.
ReplyDeleteWell- green is the color of money?
ReplyDeleteBAC - Mark, Didn't you post they found a buyer for Balfor? $0.06 is a rally?
ReplyDeleteCP- Yep, I've got to run, but I'll tell you why I find that article interesting.
ReplyDeleteUPS/FDX/CSCO/JNJ/K - Green
ReplyDeleteI guess these aren't the only ones.
Added to BTU at $63.1.
ReplyDeleteBTU is probably the cheapest growth stock (i.e., long term sustainable growth) in the market, trading at 13 times CY earnings and 10 times next year's earnings. We may have valleys in the global economy in the future, but the basic fact is that coal is going to be in ever increasing demand as far as the eye can see.
TA fellas!
ReplyDeleteTA - Book is $16, going there? Kinda looks that way.
ReplyDeleteRDN/PMI - When do these mortgage insurers get an Uncle Sam bailout of their own?
ReplyDeleteWhat lender is going to provide a mortgage if there are no mortgage insurance providers?
ORI - Add this one to the list, it actually seems better managed than the others, so maybe it gets no government banana.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Sheesh, on top of it all, I just found a note to myself to buy CADC @ 4.35
ReplyDeleteI hadn't considered David would shove a stick in my spokes!
YRCW - Kinda looks like it's rallying to me... Whomever owns their loans has been accumulating for months and then BAM, to the moon!, once the terms are relaxed? Loan owner is made whole via stock price shooting through roof?
ReplyDeleteCP - I like that call on YRCW...I took a small 1600 share position in the company for that potential...chart looks good and ya never know.
ReplyDeleteLong at $4.41.
YRCW - TOF - I just can't find enough conviction to place money on that, but I wouldn't count it out.
ReplyDeleteYRCW - FINVIZ reports no debt but negative book...
ReplyDeleteWTF?
I'm gonna go see what my broker's stats look like...
CP - Earnings are out tomorrow. I probably will put a small out of money put protection on the stock before close...don't want to get MWA'd again. On the other hand, this thing has so much room to run on the upside its crazy. Even with all of their recent dilution, the stock is trading at 0.05 p/s.
ReplyDeleteMy broker - YRCW - There's not much there that jumps out at me, lots of negative numbers all over the place and no rating.
ReplyDeleteI knew that would be the case, obviously someone on the inside knows what going on.
just turned on CNBC...man everyone is bullish on LVS...tells me if we get a pop in LVS after earnings the smart play is to short it.
ReplyDeleteLVS - Looks overpriced to me, but there's no bigger bozo than me when it comes to gambling.
ReplyDeleteI figure someone's making money as I leave the casino with a much lighter wallet.
What poped POG?
ReplyDeleteSLV has broken its recent downtrend. 2nd - we should have just stuck with SLW.
ReplyDelete52 week high coming today on the S&P. That Bernanke speech was very bullish, especially for commodities.
ReplyDeleteI wish I had more BTU than I do.
Actionable pull back in BORN?
ReplyDeleteDecided to sell my YRCW now rather than get MWA'd.
ReplyDeleteTook that money and bought some more BTU at $64.1.
Interesting news on PCX.
ReplyDeletehelluva turnaround today in BTU. This is going to $70 soon. stock is cheap.
ReplyDeletedamn i'm jynxing it. BTU rejected by the big green line.
ReplyDeleteFinViz is showing a double top on BTU.
ReplyDeleteNice action in CSCO. Breaking above R2 on volume.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Do you think CBG reporting today is close enough to get a take on RAS? Hard for me to tell, but I'd say not really.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Entered sell limit here @ $2.88, it occurred to me they may walk the price down the trend line stretching back to the May top, in which case I can re-enter a bit lower.
ReplyDeleteOrder filled.
Nice move in the retailers/ANN etc. today.
ReplyDeleteCP- Great! Destroy the spread!
"That's what I've been pondering for about two months, the divergence between PM's and base metals is an odd phenomenon. I wonder what happens to the rest of the market if PM's crash from here, if PM's are an ominous signal, or perhaps this time a positive signal where traders are moving from "PM safety" to risk."
ReplyDeleteCP, even though PMs are in a secular bull market, they periodically get ahead of themselves (as in the Spring of 2006 and Fall 2010), and after that they naturally have to go down slightly and stay down for a while until the long term trend line catches up and pushes them up again. It does not necessarily say anything about the broad equity market. Having said that, when the broad equity market had rallied hard together with PMs, a correction in PMs might indeed be foreshadowing a correction in equities...
RAS - I actually got $2.89 ;)
ReplyDelete"CADC - Sheesh, on top of it all, I just found a note to myself to buy CADC @ 4.35
ReplyDeleteI hadn't considered David would shove a stick in my spokes!"
CP, I am actually doing you a big favor -- I am driving down CADC with my buy stop order above the current price so that it will go down enough to hit your buy limit at $4.35. Otherwise, how else would you be able to buy CADC at such a great price? :)
CCME is down 50% in a few days. I wonder if this is what is putting pressure on BORN.
ReplyDeleteDavid, I agree absolutely that PM's, especially gold, need to play catch-up here. I'd feel slightly better about long equities with such confirmation.
ReplyDelete"David, A little favor to ask, Could you wake up a little earlier so we can have time to make "adjustments" to our market focus. Scrambling around right at the close is a real pain."
ReplyDeleteRoBear, imagine how many opportunities I am missing myself (or the mess I get myself into) by doing "automatic" trading until 1pm EST? This morning, for example, TWM hit my buy stop limit at $12.20 for 1000 shares and then collapsed. If I had been awake, I would have most likely placed a sell stop at $12.20 so as not to let a profit turn into a loss and would have avoided my current paper loss on TWM. But such is life. That is to say, I made a decision that life is more important to me than trading, and I will do trading only when it is convenient to me and will not change my life otherwise. If I am smart enough, I should still be able to make money even in this "constrained" trading environment...
Out DUG 31.11 +34
ReplyDeleteDon't want any open positions while I'm in transit to Beijing tomorrow. FXI also has me nervous as it could explode out its double bottom.
CALM - Retesting it's recent low? Looks like a good entry here.
ReplyDeleteCADC - David, I should've specified that note said ADD @ 4.35. Which is what I'll do if you could please push the price there for me and RAS happens to pole vault from here leaving me behind on the platform.
Hey Mark - I think CBG is a decent read into RAS...but RAS is so beaten down while is certainly not so reading into how one trades relative to the other probably won't offer an insight. It's all about expectations.
ReplyDeleteThe beauty of this market is that anyone selling (excluding OREX) comes to regret it only a few days later. I consider myself really lucky for getting cute with RAS. Don't want to try that again...at least not at these prices.
Safe travels Jesse.
ReplyDeleteSo David's long TWM now? Jeeze, no wonder we're experiencing so much whip-saw!
ReplyDeleteI'm going to stay away from BORN for now. I have enough risk on the table.
ReplyDeleteTA - +26% now...
ReplyDeleteJesse -- what will you be doing in Beijing?
ReplyDeleteMMR reports on drill results for Davey Jones. This is the largest field. Wish I understood it.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Placing an order to re-enter @$2.69, and if successful this will place my basis @ $2.50, a more comfortable level.
ReplyDeleteCADC: here you go, CP. I just bought 1000 shares at $4.56, which means that your buy limit at $4.35 should be hit tomorrow. :)
ReplyDeleteImbalance favor the bulls/financials.
ReplyDeleteRAS 100,000 bidding at 2.89, 100,000 asks at 2.90. That's unusual.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Thanks man, I knew I could count on you to help me out! Now if you could just increase your RAS position slightly to let me back in, that would be great!
ReplyDeleteOK, CB...You can come out now!
ReplyDeleteRAS - I guess that's called the $1,000 Mexican stand off?
ReplyDeleteRAS - Looks to me like someone's trying to load up here at the close...
ReplyDeleteRAS - I thought I saw a 360k+ share bid there a few minutes before the close.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell ya' what, I've made more this past couple of days trading RAS than I could've made trying to trade ABX.
ReplyDeleteTA - Closed up +32%
ReplyDeleteIt's becoming pretty clear that the worst thing that could happen for the stock you hold is for it to run up into earnings. Pretty much every stock that does gets crushed from earnings (see LVS for latest example). The only exception is if the stock is heavily shorted.
ReplyDeleteLVS - I thought I smelled a pump on that one, and I agree completely in the case of those highly traded momo monsters, I don't see much valuation correlation, just what looks to me like computer algorithm action in conjunction with a pump and dump casino scheme.
ReplyDeleteSo when does the gold dump come back to roost, just prior to tomorrow's open?
ReplyDelete"Given the strong momentum across all business lines in 2010, and particularly in the fourth quarter, the Company anticipates that Earnings Per Share, as adjusted, will be in the range of $0.95 to $1.05 in 2011. The Company is comfortable with this guidance because it believes the market is in the early stages of a commercial real estate recovery that will continue in 2011."
ReplyDeleteMark - this is from CBG's press release. From what I remember these guys are more RE brokers than anything else right? This company was one of a handful of companies I bought right around March 6, 2009. Back on the day of the bottom I bought them and a few others under $5/share in the S&P and they all doubled in like a week. Man, I wish I had the money I do now back then...talk about awesome opportunities.
I am placing a sell limit order at $0.7 for 10 March $7.50 puts on SORL. Unlike WATG, the company has very little debt and no suspicious "intangible" assets on the balance sheet, and so I figured that if I'll continue buying the Chinese auto parts sector on weakness, I should do that with SORL now rather than WATG (I already have a large position in WATG as it is).
ReplyDeleteOkay, out of curiosity I looked to see what my worthless broker has to say about LVS. I have to admit at this point I don't trust one ioda of their opinions for various reasons, and so haven't even considered referring or tracking them up until now.
ReplyDeleteYep, sure enough, their analyst covers it and they've been pumping it, currently rated a buy.
"Las Vegas Sands: MBS President resigns; maintain Buy rating"
LVS - Considering the earlier press release, I suppose no one can claim Arasi's departure was a surprise when the bell rang tonight?
ReplyDelete"Tom Arasi departing Marina Bay Sands
According to press reports this morning, Thomas Arasi, the President and CEO of
LVS' Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, is resigning from his position with the
company effective February 1."
LOL, where will the survivors be buried?
ReplyDelete"Las Vegas Sands Craps Out On Revenue Miss, Takes Beating After Hours"
JDSU.
ReplyDeleteGotta run and try to catch the nightly political snow-job and tap dance show, check you guys later!
ReplyDeleteJDSU yea that helps my FNSR
ReplyDeleteTRID - -15% AH
ReplyDeleteCBG- Guides in line FY 2011 with a FP/E off 30ish. Doesn't took so hot to me.
ReplyDeleteI have a confession. Please be kind and don't ridicule me. I went long AMD. I know you probably cannot help yourselves.:( I know i deserve it.
ReplyDeleteAMD - That takes balls here, but I've always liked the company since working with them to beat the pants off Intel. I've had lunch with Jerry Sanders in the Sunnyvale cafeteria several times, he pulled a chair up to our table and sat down with us. He was on a first name basis with the custodial personnel, I overheard him several time stopping to say hello.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, he drove a different color Rolls every day of the week.
If it weren't for AMD and DEC, your PC wouldn't be running at the speed it is today, Intel bought/begged/stole the technology.
But that was all a long time ago, before I went to Intel and was "re-educated".
ReplyDeleteOh, Robert, Robert, Robert....How many times have we told you...
ReplyDelete