I got stopped out of my CADC position today at $4.57, the same price I entered it. I am actually glad that it happened, as I have a little more free cash now to put into ECU if it keeps lagging SLV.
Looks like the broad market is turning around, FCX is up more than 2%, but CCJ is still barely green. So I just bought 300 more shares of CCJ at $40.60, so as to get back to my original position of 500 shares, and placed a sell stop limit for this whole position at $39.80/$39.70, just below the recent lows.
TOF, I've seen this a few times before during the past 6 months: a scary drop during one day, then another drop the next day with a turn around in mid-day, and then a rally to new highs. This might easily be another one of those "corrections" :)
David - Something tells me that we don't follow that prior pattern, though. I just don't see any huge reason for the market to continue to advance significantly from here. Not really sure what the play is for us traders from here...I think we just need to look for scalp trades for the foreseeable future....buying when the VIX spikes and selling when fear subsides. I think it's probably a trader's market for the next couple of months at least.
Obviously, there are exceptions...if we see a longer term trend that will work then we should play it. It looks like the ancillary plays on Nat Gas are definitely one choice. Look at how LNG and FTK are doing. There's definitely interest in the Nat Gas space with the price of oil being so high.
Looks like whenever RBY dips below $5, it quickly gets bought. As such, I decided not to wait until RBY makes a higher high at $5.40 and just now bought 1000 shares at $5.16, placing a sell stop limit for these shares at $4.9/$4.8, just below the two intraday spikes down over the past month.
"I just don't see any huge reason for the market to continue to advance significantly from here."
TOF -- frankly, there was no reason for the market to advance TO here either. The bump in corporate profits we saw over the past 2 years was due in large to abnormally high profit margins, which ALWAYS revert to the mean. The stock market run we saw was totally speculative. As David Rosenberg noted yesterday: "the S&P 500 has tracked movements in the Fed balance sheet with an 86% correlation." It may be the case that this crazy speculation will only end when QE2 money injections end in June.
A few other external shocks such as rising interest rates or rising oil prices MIGHT be able to stop this rally sooner, but we will only know in retrospect. In January, with small caps and metals going down, it LOOKED very much like the speculation is over, but that weakness in most speculative sectors turned out to be very temporary. Unless the oil price keeps going up in a straight line now, I would expect the market to return to its normal speculation mode soon.
A heads up From BILL. Rubicon Submitted by Bill Cara (2177 comments) on Wed, 02/23/2011 - 16:52 #80316
I have to conclude there may be more to this story than meets the eye. Being uncomfortable that the company has not yet publicly announced its position on what is a serious matter that the Exchange has demanded a new resources filing, I liquidated my Rubicon position.
There has been some chatter that a Toronto brokerage firm, Toll Cross, is behind the negatives here. Yesterday that firm dropped their research coverage. I have had no dealings with Toll Cross, and for all I know, they may have done so because they are, like me, uncomfortable that the company is not responsive to our concerns.
What should concern people is that Toll Cross is not a part of a short-selling network. They are conscientious professionals who serve institutional clients. That means something to me.
http://www.tollcross.ca/index.php
We deal in high risk markets. As I see it, the key to any investment is remaining comfortable with the position. Unfortunately, at least for now, Rubicon didn't quite measure up.
Anyway, there you have it. After Rubicon meets the Exchange requirement in this matter, which would require their board of director approval of the new filing, then I will instantly re-assess, and if the share price is right, I will be back in.
There is no doubt in my mind that this company has the ingredients to be a winner: a great property, excellent management and lots of cash in the treasury. But the market has made decisions based on existing reports, and if those reports have overstated the resource, the share price will fall.
RBY - Hmm, sounds like Bill was spooked by TollHouse dropping their coverage. The explanation I heard through the grapevine was the TollHouse analyst providing RBY evaluation left the company last month, so they felt it inappropriate to continue their coverage.
I would expect Bill to know about these details prior to placing OPM into speculative equities.
I remember he screwed around with TCK in a similar way just before it took off and low and behold he was on board when the train left the station.
The higher oil goes, the greater emphasis there will be on electric cars. The greater the emphasis on electric cars, the more in demand lithium ion batteries will be. The more in demand those will be the more in demand battery makers and component makers of batteries will be. CHGI is one of them.
Here's why they will have near term production starting mid 2013 Pan project with growth potential of 40% compound annual growth of gold production from 2013-2017 in a prime jurisdiction and a mgt team with a solid track record of bring projects into production.
The knock might be that its only 0.8 g/t, but you get a free call on their Golden Eagle project.
I sold at 1.31 but looking to buy back, yesterday may have been that point but I think metals are extended here.
David - One thing I think can propel the market higher is continued job growth and increases in the beaten down financials. BAC is one stock in my mind that has a ton of upside potential. I'm still holding it from the $14.6 area, unfortunately.
I did get stopped out from my CCJ position this morning at $39.95 for a loss of about 0.5% to my port overall, and I am done with it.
ReplyDeleteAs such, I decided to also close my FCX puts, which did a good job hedging my CCJ position as they gave me a trading gain of 0.5% of my port.
One used military fighter jet for sale, live out your dreams without the pesky problems of joining the military.
ReplyDeleteNeeds work, wrecked once. Poor condition... Includes used Bedouin tent of former dictator, several small holes.
Margined up and bought some WLT at $111.8...daytrade only on margin.
ReplyDeleteTaking profits in APA @ 120.27.
ReplyDeletesell off looks like it might be done at 1,300.
ReplyDeleteJust picked up 200 shares of CCJ at $40.57 and placed a sell stop limit just below today's lows at $39.80/$39.70.
ReplyDeleteBAC not following WFC
ReplyDeleteGood lord....I'm looking at the airlines...
ReplyDeleteI like the WLT trade bro.
ReplyDeleteLooks like WLT may print a kangaroo tail reversal today.
ReplyDeleteAMGN looks very interesting at these levels.
ReplyDeleteAnyone playing ngas? Closing in on $4...
ReplyDeleteBAC @ 14.05
ReplyDeleteBAC off @ 14.11
ReplyDeleteMan HEK sure looks good chart-wise.
ReplyDeleteRAS @ 3.14
ReplyDeleteOil - What do you think might happen to the price of oil if Ghaduffi steps down soon?
ReplyDeleteEven though I feel bad about being shaken out of CCJ at the lows, at least I closed my FCX puts today while FCX was still in the red...
ReplyDeleteWLT making one helluva turnaround.
ReplyDeleteCP- Crude drops 2 bucks.
ReplyDeleteSold my WLT margined piece at $118.03. Leaving the rest on.
ReplyDeleteGood job TOF.
ReplyDeletethis is a company i can put my money behind:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CBIS.OB&ql=0
thanks Mark. makes up for the losses in CHGI i'm holding on to. I have about 28k in that one at $2.17 avg.
ReplyDeleteI got stopped out of my CADC position today at $4.57, the same price I entered it. I am actually glad that it happened, as I have a little more free cash now to put into ECU if it keeps lagging SLV.
ReplyDeletelooks like bears got twice the longest selloff they've seen in the past 4 months at two days. damn this market is a bitch.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the broad market is turning around, FCX is up more than 2%, but CCJ is still barely green. So I just bought 300 more shares of CCJ at $40.60, so as to get back to my original position of 500 shares, and placed a sell stop limit for this whole position at $39.80/$39.70, just below the recent lows.
ReplyDeletewaiting for REDF to hit a RSI14 of 31 before buying...i'm afraid i may not get it...
ReplyDeleteTOF, I've seen this a few times before during the past 6 months: a scary drop during one day, then another drop the next day with a turn around in mid-day, and then a rally to new highs. This might easily be another one of those "corrections" :)
ReplyDeleteIf we drop below SPY 130.75 then it looks like the bears aren't quite done...which is a good thing for those of us that like to buy weakness.
ReplyDeleteImbalances...
ReplyDeleteFinancials-SELL
Materials-BUY.
David - Something tells me that we don't follow that prior pattern, though. I just don't see any huge reason for the market to continue to advance significantly from here. Not really sure what the play is for us traders from here...I think we just need to look for scalp trades for the foreseeable future....buying when the VIX spikes and selling when fear subsides. I think it's probably a trader's market for the next couple of months at least.
ReplyDeleteObviously, there are exceptions...if we see a longer term trend that will work then we should play it. It looks like the ancillary plays on Nat Gas are definitely one choice. Look at how LNG and FTK are doing. There's definitely interest in the Nat Gas space with the price of oil being so high.
ReplyDeleteLooks like whenever RBY dips below $5, it quickly gets bought. As such, I decided not to wait until RBY makes a higher high at $5.40 and just now bought 1000 shares at $5.16, placing a sell stop limit for these shares at $4.9/$4.8, just below the two intraday spikes down over the past month.
ReplyDeleteSCO - Off @ $9.60, w/0.20/share gain I'll happily take. Comes close to paying one month's winter electric bill.
ReplyDeleteHmm, Comcast's web site claims to service my address. They're not going to be too happy about running their wire this far...
ReplyDeleteIt might be worth it, which service(s) should I subscribe to?
CP- I use Comcast for phone/internet/cable. The package is about 40 bucks less than if I mixed the 3.
ReplyDeleteThat's an awful lot of trading for me only to net $222.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Placed an GTC order at much higher values in order to keep my shares from being borrowed.
ReplyDeleteBORN's got to be getting close.
ReplyDelete"I just don't see any huge reason for the market to continue to advance significantly from here."
ReplyDeleteTOF -- frankly, there was no reason for the market to advance TO here either. The bump in corporate profits we saw over the past 2 years was due in large to abnormally high profit margins, which ALWAYS revert to the mean. The stock market run we saw was totally speculative. As David Rosenberg noted yesterday: "the S&P
500 has tracked movements in the Fed balance sheet with an 86% correlation." It may be the case that this crazy speculation will only end when QE2 money injections end in June.
A few other external shocks such as rising interest rates or rising oil prices MIGHT be able to stop this rally sooner, but we will only know in retrospect. In January, with small caps and metals going down, it LOOKED very much like the speculation is over, but that weakness in most speculative sectors turned out to be very temporary. Unless the oil price keeps going up in a straight line now, I would expect the market to return to its normal speculation mode soon.
Hmm, internet by itself is $30, Telephone by itself is $30, but both together in a single package is $90.
ReplyDeleteSounds like highway robbery if you want both, $10 more you get all three but then they're into you for a full bill.
A heads up From BILL.
ReplyDeleteRubicon
Submitted by Bill Cara (2177 comments) on Wed, 02/23/2011 - 16:52 #80316
I have to conclude there may be more to this story than meets the eye. Being uncomfortable that the company has not yet publicly announced its position on what is a serious matter that the Exchange has demanded a new resources filing, I liquidated my Rubicon position.
There has been some chatter that a Toronto brokerage firm, Toll Cross, is behind the negatives here. Yesterday that firm dropped their research coverage. I have had no dealings with Toll Cross, and for all I know, they may have done so because they are, like me, uncomfortable that the company is not responsive to our concerns.
What should concern people is that Toll Cross is not a part of a short-selling network. They are conscientious professionals who serve institutional clients. That means something to me.
http://www.tollcross.ca/index.php
We deal in high risk markets. As I see it, the key to any investment is remaining comfortable with the position. Unfortunately, at least for now, Rubicon didn't quite measure up.
Anyway, there you have it. After Rubicon meets the Exchange requirement in this matter, which would require their board of director approval of the new filing, then I will instantly re-assess, and if the share price is right, I will be back in.
There is no doubt in my mind that this company has the ingredients to be a winner: a great property, excellent management and lots of cash in the treasury. But the market has made decisions based on existing reports, and if those reports have overstated the resource, the share price will fall.
David - I don't suppose you've ever been baptized?
ReplyDeleteI can't count the number of times I've been baptized these past few years. ;)
RBY - Hmm, sounds like Bill was spooked by TollHouse dropping their coverage. The explanation I heard through the grapevine was the TollHouse analyst providing RBY evaluation left the company last month, so they felt it inappropriate to continue their coverage.
ReplyDeleteI would expect Bill to know about these details prior to placing OPM into speculative equities.
I remember he screwed around with TCK in a similar way just before it took off and low and behold he was on board when the train left the station.
Screw BC.
The higher oil goes, the greater emphasis there will be on electric cars. The greater the emphasis on electric cars, the more in demand lithium ion batteries will be. The more in demand those will be the more in demand battery makers and component makers of batteries will be. CHGI is one of them.
ReplyDelete"David - I don't suppose you've ever been baptized?"
ReplyDeleteNo, I haven't. Unless you count dipping into a pool as getting baptized -- is that how you've been baptized many times? :)
Gun to my head I buy MDW, before RBY.
ReplyDeleteHere's why they will have near term production starting mid 2013 Pan project with growth potential of 40% compound annual growth of gold production from 2013-2017 in a prime jurisdiction and a mgt team with a solid track record of bring projects into production.
The knock might be that its only 0.8 g/t, but you get a free call on their Golden Eagle project.
I sold at 1.31 but looking to buy back, yesterday may have been that point but I think metals are extended here.
FWIW
David - One thing I think can propel the market higher is continued job growth and increases in the beaten down financials. BAC is one stock in my mind that has a ton of upside potential. I'm still holding it from the $14.6 area, unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Baptized in the sense of being held under water for what could become an uncomfortable experience for some. ;)
ReplyDeleteBC - I think you'll get the same answer with a much different meaning depending on whether he's been drinking gin or beer.
ReplyDeleteGap up tomorrow? Who the hell knows but anything is possible nowadays.
ReplyDeleteABX - Looks like they ran stops in a big way yesterday.
ReplyDeleteMark - at this point it looks like RAS is going to come right back down to it's launch point: $3.
ReplyDelete