Wednesday, February 23, 2011
2/24/11 Back On The Corner Again/Tercio de Muerte
It's funny how Comcast came up in the blog today. Comcast/Xfinity installed cable this morning, and now I'm able to rock all night long.
We almost have to bounce from two days of hard selling. However, I'm not planning any trades until Friday.
Hulbert also advising caution:
http://tinyurl.com/4mnq8e3
That was then. Now is now.
Still, the similarities between today’s stock market and the one that prevailed late last April are striking — and disturbing:
•Late last April, of course, the stock market had risen far higher than most investors over the previous few months had dared to hope — just like now.
•Late last April, bullish sentiment rose to higher levels than had been seen in many months, if not years. Bullish sentiment today is nearly as high.
•Then as now, a geopolitical crisis caught the market by surprise. The precipitating event then was the sovereign debt crisis in Europe; today it is unrest in Libya and throughout the Middle East.
•Late last April, the stock market soon encountered big air pockets, most famously the Flash Crash on May 7, in which the Dow dropped nearly a thousand points in just a few minutes’ time. It is too soon to tell if the market will encounter similar air pockets today, but it did fall 2% earlier this week upon returning from its three-day weekend and confronting the news from the Middle East.
Worst of all:
Even more ominously, consider the average recommended exposure among just those market timers who focus on the NASDAQ market. This average is a good barometer of sentiment because the NASDAQ market is particularly sensitive to mood changes among retail investors.
Today, this NASDAQ-centric average stands at 73.3%, in contrast to 72.9% on the day of the stock market’s late-April high.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LrW0JPwyoc
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MOG must be damn happy. He probably owns 1/2 of CVX's float :)
ReplyDeleteGood news AH's for KOGers...
ReplyDeleteI called RBY today and their rep told me that they expect to have total production costs in the $300-$400 per oz. They expect to produce 200000oz/year with their mine. With a profit margin of $1000/oz (assuming $1400/oz gold price in 2012, which is a very conservative assumption), they will have a profit of $200M per year. Fully diluted, they currently have 225M shares outstanding. In order to complete the mine, they will have to issue about 30M more shares. So all together, when their mine starts producing, they will have about 255M shares outstanding. So they will have about $0.80 in free cashflow per share once their mine starts operating. Most likely, the market will price them in 2012 based on the observed cashflow, so we should expect the share price of around $10 in 2012-2013. This means that it totally makes sense to buy RBY on any dips below $5, but one should not go crazy right now, since there will be MANY dips between now and 2012 to get into RBY. One big dip will probably happen when they announce share dilution this year so as to pay for mine completion.
ReplyDeleteReposting this just in case anyone has any comments. I could never put my whole account on the line in one stock, but sometimes fortunes are made that way. If you have any comments on either MDW or ALU, please post.
ReplyDeleteGun to my head I buy MDW, before RBY.
Here's why they will have near term production starting mid 2013 Pan project with growth potential of 40% compound annual growth of gold production from 2013-2017 in a prime jurisdiction and a mgt team with a solid track record of bring projects into production.
The knock might be that its only 0.8 g/t, but you get a free call on their Golden Eagle project.
I sold at 1.31 but looking to buy back, yesterday may have been that point but I think metals are extended here.
FWIW
Whats up with KOG Mark? I have been at meetings.
ReplyDeleteVE - A water play with a sizable presence in the Chinese market, might be coming to us soon.
ReplyDeleteIMAX - Seems almost unstoppable, doesn't it?
VE is an interesting play and the write of HEK was noteworthy too.
ReplyDeleteBTW, its was obvious on Monday why WPRT was a rising on Friday, someone knew about the UPS deal with CLNE and the order for about (I think 1100 trucks)by UPS for WPRT.
write up of HEK
ReplyDeleteDavid, great work, thanks for doing that.
ReplyDeletePCP - Fellas, this is the Mack Daddy of aircraft parts manufacturing, it kinda scares me to see the share prices tumble like this.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe it's not really all that bad yet, but this will be a great play once this selling spree ends.
VE/IMAX - These both have attached themselves like a tick to the Chinese growth story, if you believe one exists.
ReplyDeleteHEK - I read that writeup, or the one on Seeking Alpha, I think it was. It wasn't clear to me how HEK really fit in though, and why they had something unique that couldn't be duplicated.
ReplyDeletePerhaps my reading comprehension skills were dull that day, it's been known to happen.
RB- They announced proven reserves AH. Pretty good. Not as oily as BEXP, but about 70% as far as I can tell.
ReplyDeleteLook. I'm really busy. If you expect me to monitor your positions while your in a 'meeting', I expect to be compensated for it. Perhaps you can schedule a 'meeting' for me?
CP- HEK. Can easily be duplicated, but it wont be by any of the big drillers. Just not what they want to get into. MOG confirmed this also. Bottom line, they still have about 300M in cash and it's really a bet on the Jockey. Heckmann,
ReplyDeleteNKSH - There's something about this bank that peeks my curiosity, I think a price of $28 would be a great entry if it comes. Look how strong it's been in the face of the recent panic.
ReplyDeleteHEK does have permitted wells in Texas that are getting harder and harder to get.
ReplyDeleteHEK - Sure appears the Jockey is holding the stock together, I'll say that much.
ReplyDeleteHEK- They've also brought in some very respected water guys onto the team/board.
ReplyDeleteSo is having lots of oil good? I mean for the stock. Imagine all the expense to get all that oil.
ReplyDeleteMark, ou're talking about East Texas wells? I sure hope these aren't dumping wells.... Anyway, water isn't much of a problem in much of Texas except for the central corridor, where incidentally most people live. Austin is really hurting, everyone else is doing okay so far but they are looking for future water sources.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm not sure what you know specifically about HEK's wells, these drilling companies own lots of land in the shale play and water shouldn't be much of a problem for these drillers, I wouldn't imagine.
So you see, I'm extremely dense and just don't get it. Sometimes you just have to clobber me over the head with a 2x4 or something.
I don't question the jockey at all, based on how the stock is acting there's something to it, I just don't comprehend what that something is. Of course, I don't hold 1/2 of CVX float either, so who am I to argue?
Mark - I'm heading off for a short meeting now, but you don't want to attend, trust me... ;)
ReplyDeletePCAR - Speaking of float, do you see the H&S pattern there on PCAR? I wonder how that one is likely to resolve going forward?
ReplyDeleteIs it complete?
CP- Yeppers, they're dumping wells. I think they have 6 of them.
ReplyDeleteThe US$ seems to have submerged after hours but is finding equilibrium @ 77.25. As usual, I know not what it means.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5
RB- Good god man, your still at it? Perhaps you've missed you chosen profession.
ReplyDeletePlease tell your 'meeting', mine only last a few minutes. Perhaps a reduced fee can be arranged?
Anyone really interested in HEK needs to look into the warrants. I think there is 300M sitting out there in Nov. 2011 with an exercise price of $8-9.
ReplyDeleteU$D Dumping - I believe it's a warning to Washington to get their $hit straightend out?
ReplyDeleteDumping wells probably aren't easy to come by.
ReplyDeleteTOF- RAS...Perhaps, but I watched the tape for a few hours today. CIN was selling hard and ARCA was buying. CIN had 100K blocks late in the day that got chewed up pretty fast with out level II changing. This tells me the MM was buying those shares, or dark pools. That's the only way the bid/ask ratio doesn't change.
ReplyDeleteTOF- But what the F do I know. I'm more interested in RB's 'meeting'.
ReplyDeleteSeoul was over 2100 in late January. Now it's at 1958. That has to be a 'tell.'
ReplyDeleteI guess the one thing tthat will def juice the mkt is ipos of linkedin etc...and it will def juice it
ReplyDeleteMy meeting is over. Feel tingly and relaxed. Need to smoke a ciggy and go to bed. Mark quit complaining I only have one position for you to watch.
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember MTBE? It was the oil industries answer to ethanol and it was a disaster for groundwater from Santa Monica to New York. Oil Co's had no clue that their additive had an affinity for water and would pollute permanently (or did they?). This is why New York state and others are concerned about fracking fluids.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methyl_tert-butyl_ether
RB- I don't want to watch you in ANY position with your 'meeting'...NEXT!
ReplyDeleteMTBE - Yes, I certainly do remember it. Just the thought caused me great angst, sorry but I don't like the idea of introducing chemicals into our environment that are persistant and we have no idea of the consequences. The only acceptable exposure is no exposure when it comes to any chemical that's not fully understood.
ReplyDeleteThere are many reasons for this aside simply that it's wrong, abuse of chemicals actually slows technological progress. What ever happened to the great chemistry sets we used to have long ago? Gone! There are so many useful chemicals that are banned now due to environmental abuse it's a shame.
Did they ever remove MTBE from motor fuel? I didn't realize they had.
Yeah, and anybody who pumps thousands of gallons of diesel fuel underground just because it's technically legal should be put immediately in front of a firing squad.
ReplyDeleteIt's just unbelievable how much stupidity exists in this world. Everyone is so damn angry about Ben diluting the currency and never mind about the credit sins of the past while these real crimes are being committed. I don't want to have anything to do with it.
David,
ReplyDeleteYour RBY numbers came out at the same 80 cents mine did.
If it turns out $1400 is low, by then it will be valued as a producer and it will adjust upwards, I'd expect.
$100 oil, I guess that floor trader was right even though he couldn't have possibly known about Libyan chaos.
ReplyDeleteDPRT off @ .8280
ReplyDeleteLong REDF at $5.87 and $5.96. Sold all of my WLT at $120.1
ReplyDeleteAdded more REDF at $6.03. Total 10k shs.
ReplyDeleteWLT...Nice bro.
ReplyDeleteRBY/GMO - Buyers always show up on dips to $5.
ReplyDeleteRB- Might want to book KOG. All the same stuff I follow is getting hit here.
ReplyDeleteThere's definitely a lot of dip buying going on...however, if we don't get a bounce higher soon I think the bulls will give up and send this market lower.
ReplyDeleteBAC is having a real hard time getting out of the gate.
ReplyDeleteCADC - "China ACM Buys Two New Portable Plants; Wins $4.1 Million in New HSR Contracts"
ReplyDeleteSold the 1/2 of my REDF at $5.96 that I bought at $5.87
ReplyDeletei suspect we get a bounce and then another test of 1,300 in the next few days to completely frustrate everyone. then i think there's a chance we trade right around 1,300 for a couple of days and people expect a break lower because a bear flag is forming...at which point we go higher...
ReplyDeleteWOW, WPRT is now up 9 of 10 days, while CLNE is up three. Can CLNE pull a WPRT?
ReplyDeleteThe retail buying of WPRT is amazing.
Long BAC at $13.94...playing the double bottom like a fool.
ReplyDeleteGL guys. I smell another sell off.
ReplyDeleteINDZ - I suppose traders think these high oilprices will have an emerging market economic impact.
ReplyDeleteEDZ kinda stuck though.
ReplyDeleteBe careful being long here...i see some bullishness in the GE's, IWM's and IYTs of the world. Also, energy stocks are pulling back. I suspect a bounce is near.
ReplyDeleteS+P testing lows. Could have a DB on the minute chart or a whoosh lower if 1300 breaks. Stops will be hit.
ReplyDeleteI want to buy some stuff here but I am going to wait until all the traders get back from lunch to see what direction they want to take it. I have the feeling they want to close it right around 1300 to keep everyone guessing.
ReplyDeletelong PBR
ReplyDeleteLong 11 F Mar $13 calls at $1.77. F shows clear support at $14.5 that has been tested twice in the past 2 days. I like the entry point with a stop around $14.35. Also added to my BAC at $13.85.
ReplyDeleteAdded to REDF at $5.92.
ReplyDeleteWatch for a break below $58.4 on GDX...could be a good short if it breaks down below it and comes back up but doesn't go through it. Or just a short below it with a stop around $58.7
ReplyDelete"Your RBY numbers came out at the same 80 cents mine did."
ReplyDeleteIn that case, cheapy, you have to agree that there is no need to put all your port into RBY now. Obviously there will be many sell-offs between now and the time when they record their first profitable quarter, and out of $X one can potentially place into RBY, one should have at least 0.3X in cash right now, so as to be able to take advantage of such sell-offs.
One such sell-off in RBY is happening right now. :)
ReplyDeletePIR, my high commodities contra-indicator, is now at session highs.
ReplyDeleteF is on my watch list I want to see the 200 hold. I will buy on strength of a bounce.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Has clearly broken down through that lower trend line, I'm not liking this action much, the 200DMA is a potential target.
ReplyDeleteI see quite a few stocks doing this, and so far it's not deep enough to make me feel like buying.
Gimme another hallucinogenic pill.
I just bought again. I have cash, but there are limits to how much I'm willing to put into RBY regardless of my feelings on it.
ReplyDeleteIts a momentum bonanza for the shorts at the moment. Vary sad to see, but I should have anticipated better.
David, very nice write up on RBY posted earlier.
ReplyDeleteYou said, "total production costs in the $300-$400 per oz." How do you define total production costs?
Is it the same as , at cash costs and "all in" costs including capital expenditures? If it is not, then your estimates would be off, just an observation, please clarify if you have the time.
It's amazing how long something underpriced can stay that way, and vice-versa.
ReplyDeleteAnd away we go down
ReplyDeleteSP's breaking 1300 and on the lows. If this correction is real, looks like it possible targets:
ReplyDelete1195.29
1128.12
per Tom DeMark
It never ceases to amaze me how the SP can be down like .5, .75%, but yet many stocks get hit for negative 2-5%.
ReplyDeleteProtect capital.
T3D -- these are the numbers the RBY rep told me. I tried to clarify and asked him whether it includes all related costs such as shipping and other overheads and he said yes. Further, when I told him that this would imply a $1000/oz profit margin at $1400/oz gold, he said yes. Note, once again, that he said that they do not want to take on any debt and will instead finance completion of their mine by issuing about 30M shares at some point this year.
ReplyDelete* Ups Hornbeck Offshore to "buy", adds to conviction list
ReplyDelete* Sees initial US Gulf permits over next 30-90 days
* Diamond, Hornbeck, Plains Exploration favorites (Follows alerts)
Feb 24 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it was increasingly bullish on a recovery in the Gulf of Mexico deepwater market
following the establishment of a back-up plan to deal with any future accidents like the one last year.
"We expect 15-20 deepwater rigs to be working in the U.S. Gulf by the fourth quarter versus seven currently and 34 at the
time of Macondo," analyst Daniel Boyd said in a note dated Feb. 23, referring to the BP oil well blowout in April.
Oil majors like Exxon Mobil , Chevron , Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips have teamed up to form a rapid-response
system of ships and deepwater equipment designed to stop or contain a future oil spill in the prolific energy zone.
As a result, the analyst expects initial drilling permits to be issued over the next 30-90 days. The oil spill had brought U.S.
Gulf activity to a near standstill.
Boyd upgraded oilfield services provider Hornbeck Offshore , which posted strong quarterly results , to "buy" from "neutral",
citing its 60 percent exposure to the region.
The stock was also added to Goldman's "conviction buy" list.
"We expect the stocks levered to a recovery to anticipate a resumption of drilling activity once the initial permits are issued
and we recommend buying a group of stocks that have the most leverage," the analyst added.
Boyd named Hornbeck, Diamond Offshore , Plains Exploration , Noble Corp , Transocean , Cobalt International Energy , Hess
Corp , Apache Corp , ATP Oil & Gas as the likely beneficiaries.
With an eight percent rise, Hornbeck's stock was the top gainer among the firms mentioned in the note.
The broader Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equipment and Services Index was down half a percent. (Reporting by Mayuresh Tungare
in Bangalore;Editing by Vyas Mohan)
Tele,
ReplyDeleteI'm no expert but I would thinK there is support some where between 1300 and 1195. 50 day at 1286 is an obvious place of resistance.
Had I stayed with my *original* VXX money pump (when I started buying at $35 and continued down to about $30), I would have been up nicely at this point. And it may be the case that the sell-off is only starting now and we still have 10% to go on the downside. How did it happen? ...
ReplyDeleteHome prices in Phoenix are 50% of five years ago.
ReplyDeletePretty amazing...
SPY- S2 is 129.25
ReplyDeleteMan, good thing I dumped DPTR. I'd hate to have to deal with all those profits.
ReplyDeleteF- Thanks for bringing this one up. Interesting here.
ReplyDeleteNotes to myself from last night. Short WNR below 16.50. Where is that poker Mark?
ReplyDeletebreak down was a fake out in my opinion. added 6 more F Calls at $1.69. Added to my BAC at $13.83
ReplyDeleteI see VXX just had a spike down, and so I just picked up 100 more shares of CCJ at $40.25 and added them into my sell stop order at $39.80.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Some day you're gonna have to allow the market to baptize you, I've come to accept this as a necessary evil in my case.
ReplyDeleteUSO just had a spike down as well -- maybe the fears are easing up?
ReplyDeleteWNR - Looks like it's headed for $12 to me, probably lower.
ReplyDeleteCP -- I was baptized with junior miners big time between 2007 and 2010. I started scaling into UXG at $5, kept scaling in until it was under $1, and then started scaling out until it was $5 once again. The whole round trip took 3 years.
ReplyDeleteUSO is in the red -- now is probably the time to buy 3X ultralongs...
ReplyDeleteDavid, RBY clarification, thank you. I consider dilution a negative for shareholders and a cost. Management will most always give the rosiest scenarios, I would feel more confident if some talented securities firm was validating this.
ReplyDeleteAnyway we all know JV's are highly speculative. GL and I hope you all hit a home run with it.
Yo-Bear those are targets by DeMark who Mentioned them on CNBC monday. I have not read his book in 15 years or so but his method has nothing to do with moving averages and he said that it referred to SP Mar contract, I tend to follow cash. You are correct the 50 and 89 lay below with the 200 coming in at 1168 cash 1159 futes.
Just remember in Mar 2000 how fast the market gutted everyone, you can always buy back. GL to all.
Just bought 500 shares of SSO at $51.29 for a day trade.
ReplyDeletePlacing a stop at $51.05 just below its most recent low on the intraday chart.
ReplyDeleteF @ 14.60.
ReplyDeleteMark, deepwater rigs in gulf, a correct cement job wouldn't hurt, sort of like a good, wait I will not go there.
ReplyDeleteok time to focus.
Now have 27 March $13 calls on F with avg at $1.73. Added to my BAC at $13.87. I'm getting that bouncy feeling.
ReplyDeleteOK, off all of my SSO position at $51.49, for a $100 gain. Don't laugh -- that's 2 bottles of Nadurra! :)
ReplyDeleteT3D- Focus man, focus!
ReplyDeleteUSO down more than 1% now, VXX is almost in the red -- keep buying, folks!
ReplyDeleteCP ON WNR you are right, but the easy money has already been made.
ReplyDeleteWow, gold silver copper platnum brent and light all hotting daily low's, that creates a bouncy feelings
ReplyDeleteBack into 300 shares of SSO at $51.44.
ReplyDeleteUAL- Too bad I only 'looked' at it yesterday.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I agree my friend. USO is the tell. Or in my wickery world, PIR was the tell.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, though, IWM + IYT are slight tells to me. Plus, I'm seeing energy names pull back heavily which tells me that oil at these levels is unsustainable in the short term. Look at OIH. Complete reversal. Same with SU, WLT, BTU, HAL, XOM, etc...why would these all be reversing when oil is up so much?
Placing a stop for SSO at $51.37 (just below the most recent pullback on the intraday chart) and letting them run...
ReplyDeleteMaybe the market knows something we don't: namely, that Libya may be resolved and that Saudi Arabia is not a threat? I've seen these whole numbers get pierced on support levels so many times because people idiotically put them as stop points. That creates a whoosh down in the market which is the time to buy. Look at the volume on /es when it broke. That was a tell that we should be buying.
ReplyDeleteThe damn CCJ followed the market during the latest intraday capitulation, but it is not following the market during the rebound! It is probably being sold as a part of energy ETFs getting sold...
ReplyDeleteMark - I love our entry points on F. Such an easy trade. Put the stop around $14.35. The $14.5 level is a huge area of support. It was resistance in March and April 2010 and in October 2010 and was the point at which F broke higher in November.
ReplyDeleteWith floor trading over in crude, that might be it for the day.
ReplyDeleteAnyone interested in health care? AMGN looks like a GREAT entry point.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks for bringing that one up. I heard on the radio yesterday that something like 25% of people surveyed said they planned on buying a new car in the next 6 months. Whatever the exact % was, I was surprised.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver just had big spikes down -- I think the Libya-related sell-off is over.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what the market had sniffed out 30 min ago? Everyone in Libya is sleeping now!
ReplyDeleteBase metals (DBB) actually did fairly well yesterday, and again today.
ReplyDeleteGreat action on the part of ECU this week -- first it goes down with the broad market despite SLV spiking up, then it goes down with SLV despite the broad market rebounding. Damn... Naturally, this is a great buying opportunity, since such silly behaviors must get corrected, but I have already used up almost all my cash!
ReplyDeleteFunny David :)
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK, Feb 24, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Murray, Frank & Sailer LLP has filed a class action complaint in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York (Case No. 11 Civ. 1280) on behalf of all individuals and institutions who purchased Bank of America Corporation ("BofA" or the "Company") publicly traded common stock and options during the period between May 9, 2007 and October 19, 2010 (the "Class Period"), seeking to pursue remedies under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act").
ReplyDeleteThe Complaint alleges that throughout the Class Period, BofA engaged in "dollar rolling," a practice whereby it would move mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") off its books to another entity, but agree to repurchase the MBS after it reported its quarterly financial statement. Accordingly, BofA classified such transactions as "sales," when in reality the transactions were a form of secured borrowing. Dollar rolling enabled BofA to conceal from investors the true risks that BofA had incurred as a result of its investments in MBS. On July 9, 2010, it was revealed that BofA dollar rolled $4.5 billion in 1Q 2007, $1.8 billion in 4Q 2007, $10.7 billion in 3Q 2008, and $573 million in 1Q 2009.
The Complaint also alleges that, during the Class Period, BofA also concealed from investors that, in large part due to its July 2008 acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corporation, it failed to maintain adequate internal controls regarding the processing of foreclosures, because (1) it did not possess adequate paperwork for many of the loans that it purchased or acquired, which could delay or prevent eventual foreclosures; and (2) it did not have adequate personnel to process its foreclosed loans, so it resorted to the improper and illegal practice of "robo-signing."
On October 8, 2010, BofA announced that it was indefinitely halting foreclosures in all 50 states and was reviewing over 100,000 loans. On October 13, 2010, attorneys general for all 50 states announced that they would conduct a joint investigation regarding robo-signing. On October 19, 2010, BofA issued a press release, announcing its third-quarter 2010 financial results, and reporting a net loss of $7.3 billion. The press release also revealed that net income on a fully taxable-equivalent basis was down 4% from the previous quarter, presumably due in significant part to the problems that BofA was having in effectuating foreclosures. Between October 8 and October 19, BofA's stock dropped from $13.31 to $11.80, a drop of 11.3%.
ReplyDeleteHEK looking solid.
ReplyDeleteUS Crude supplies higher than expected.
ReplyDeleteCP > I don't think that really had an impact on the price of crude, though. that info was released like 5 hours ago.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 200 more shares of SSO at $51.68 and placed a sell stop for all the 500 shares I have right now at $51.48, just below the recent double bottom on the intraday chart.
ReplyDeleteI think the dip buyers will be all over each other by today's close -- the 3-day dip we had is the biggest one we had in a while...
ReplyDeleteFinally, CCJ is getting its act together and following the market on this rebound...
ReplyDeleteSSO is green now. Moving my sell stop up to $51.80.
ReplyDeleteLong AMAT
ReplyDeleteTOF - "that info was released like 5 hours ago"
ReplyDeleteI posted it as soon as I found about it, sorry if it was late but I thought it might be pertinante.
Unfortunately, I'm typically behind the curve by a considerable amount when it comes to the short term.
SSO is solid green now. Moving up my stop to $51.88, just below the 0 line.
ReplyDeleteCP > too funny...
ReplyDeleteBreaking news:
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has stepped down.
Moving up the stop on SSO to $51.94, just below the most recent spike down it made before surging higher (that spike was obviously meant to shake people out of their positions and so I doubt SSO will return to re-test that level).
ReplyDeleteAdded some more CHGI at $2.05. Now hold 30k shs.
ReplyDeleteTOF - You're absolutely right, I should spend my time scanning news stories as opposed to posting here. It's the only way I'll be able to keep up.
ReplyDeleteWell, I just did get stopped out of my 500 shares of SSO at $51.94, which means that SSO started making lower lows. Maybe we have seen the high for today, which is only natural given the magnitude of the rebound we just had and a natural desire of those who bought at the same time as I did to take profits. The average cost basis for my 500 shares was $51.54, so that gives me a $200 profit in addition to the $100 I made on my first round trip in SSO. That's already more Nadurra than I can handle in a week. :)
ReplyDeleteLong FNSR
ReplyDeleteSLV is down 4.5% -- that's a pretty dramatic shakeout...
ReplyDeleteBut SLV is still 5% above its December 31 high, so there is no cause to panic yet on the part of silver bugs.
ReplyDeleteWhat a lame bounce I'm getting in BAC/F. Was expecting more. Should just be buying the market I think.
ReplyDeleteRAS looking good.
ReplyDeleteYou know, folks, just for kicks, I just shorted 200 shares of VXX at $33.64 and placed a buy stop limit just above today's high at $35.1/$35.2. Judging by the collapse in oil, gold, and silver we just had, the panic is over, and VXX should go into a tailspin starting tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteBA, went long here, defense dept chooses tanker after hours. Size small this is like trading before earnings, but have not been to vegas for awhile. Risky, but if they win could break out above, at worst I think defense dept splits orders time will tell.
ReplyDeleteNow that the panic in the equity market seems to be over, any stocks that got hit during this dip but then forgot to recover offer good buying opportunities, IMO. CCJ is one of them, but I already have enough of it. ECUXF is another one, and I just placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares at $1.02.
ReplyDeleteBA - Are you aware of all the issues, why did you chose BA?
ReplyDeleteCRM is blowing up AH, up almost $13....earnings call at 2 pm
ReplyDeleteJust like the rise in VIX futures on Thursday and Friday despite S&P rising as well was a tell for this sell-off, so maybe the fact the VIX futures closed in the red today despite S&P also closing in the red is a tell for the end of this sell-off?
ReplyDeletehmmm, CRM has given up all its AH gains, the call s/b very interesting.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what to make of the overall action today, some decent earnings reports after the close today but it still feels like we're in correction mode.
after trading about 75 contracts today (3E and CL) I lost $15, what a waste of time, bet my broker sends me a better xmaz gift this yr
I cannot believe I bought into AMAT with earnings. Drunk trading should be discouraged.
ReplyDeleteI don't know RB, looks like it is working out for you. my motto "use what works"
ReplyDeleteJB I agree with the correction mode feeling. I think we could have an across the board washout, where nothing is up. Gold down,,, Oil Down,,, Equities down. T-Notes up Dollar UP. Is being 3% off the highs even considered a correction? This market has spoiled us. I'm placing tight stops.
ReplyDeleteI have owned AMAT before good earnings report is good for solar, but they themselves never pop on good earnings.
ReplyDeleteBA sold for a nice dinner
ReplyDeleteAMAT - I suppose you already know the semiconductor industry usually retools during recessions.
ReplyDeleteWhat's 3E? TIA
ReplyDeleteBA - I was trying to follow that one, but lost track of the issues. The one in particular the stuck in my mind was length of runway, one of the two options required more runway.
ReplyDeleteThere were other issues, I'm pretty sure I had those straight in my mind, just couldn't recall for sure which required runway mods.
oops. meant 6E (euro/usd futures contract) based on my performance today it FELT like I was trading 3E..LOL
ReplyDeleteon the CL (crude futures contact) I was placing limit orders with brackets and it was moving so fast that my buy or sell short order would fill and then in the same instant my stop loss would fill, and I was using a 10 tick stop loss - how the *&%$##@@&()*^&^ can that happen?
ReplyDeleteJB - I'd love to be able to enter bid and stop loss in the same order.
ReplyDeleteCP - ya, except when they fill at the same time and you are wiped out of the trade before you even start...it was wild fast in crude today
ReplyDeletethanks JB
ReplyDeleteBA ripping, maybe should have waited for their whites of the eyes
t3d
t3d - a win is a win, good job!
ReplyDeleteBA - Well what do ya' know, the Pentagon actually made the obvious decision based on merits instead of just price.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Even though I'm now 90% long, I don't think I can say that the panic is over. If I'm Laszlo Birinyi, though, I'm thinking it doesn't really matter one iota because we're going to 2,800 in 2013.
ReplyDeleteYou guys might know this play better than me. BCON announced a 10-1 reverse split to take effect tonight. This is old news. It was approved by the board months ago. Why is it down 14% AH.
ReplyDeleteCan we trade this?
Lots of earnings AH's in the oil patch. Pretty impressive on first blush, but that's to be expected.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/cisco-bullish-options-bets-jump-following-stock-plunge-in-wake-of-earnings.html
ReplyDeleteHEK- Did you guys catch this article?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/energy-stock-fracking-natural-gas-industry/2/22/2011/id/32942?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
Hopefully RAS tags along tomorrow with GKK.
ReplyDeleteI just realized I still had a old GTC order for ASTM @ 2.00. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteHEK - Yes, we were discussing this article last night.
ReplyDeleteDamn if I can comprehend why HEK holds the keys to the gas production business, their wells must be worth a large fortune. The stock just keeps climbing though, so obviously there's something to it. But what? A place to dump fouled water? Do they truck the water from Montana to Texas?
CP- They truck it and also pipe it. I think right now their pipe line is running at 50 capacity. Again, I think the real play here is Heckmann's ability to capture the entire market.
ReplyDeleteIf you really interested, I'd listen to the last Con Call. Heckmann does a really good job laying out the case. He also talks about the warrants.
RAS - I nearly bought some today and probably would've if RBY wasn't collapsing.
ReplyDeleteI kinda thought $100 WTIC would push gold on up to $1500, might have something to do with possible interest rate hikes in Europe....
HDY has cooled off nicely after the upgrade?
ReplyDeleteDavid- SD is a mere penny or 2 away from 10 bucks.
ReplyDeleteI read somewhere a large part of the cost of fracking is water disposal, I guess I just don't understand if that's the case then the water must be fouled with hydrocarbons or who knows what, and maybe shouldn't be pumped into wells anyway. I could see if maybe there was some unique proprietary method involved that removed hydrocarbons first.
ReplyDeleteThe whole thing sounds really questionable on the surface. I should listen to the conference just to try getting a feeling for how such an operation can be justified.
I bet dumping of contaminated water could be a real money maker, but that doesn't mean it isn't an environmental train wreck.
CP- The water is treated, that's a big key. Listen to the call. Your far smarter than I am, but it makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteIt sure doesn't sound like we've heard the last of high oil prices in the shorter term. Although I'm very confident mayhem isn't likely to erupt in Saudi Arabia, I guess the proximity is cause for concern.
ReplyDeleteLibya being off line represents a 2% loss of supply the Saudi's will have to make up for and I can certainly understand the uncertainty involved.
The US gets a huge amount of oil from the Canadian sands, and I suppose some from these fracked wells now too, but how sustainable are those practices?
We're gonna need those electric metro rockets toot sweet, along with sustainable ways to charge them.
Uranium - I read last night where the reprocessing of spent fuel rods should be delayed as long as possible to keep the quantity of plutonium laying around to a minimun for security and safety reasons, but China seems to be saying they've got the process and are gonna use it.
Could just be all talk, but regardless, we're looking at decades before that kind of technology can be up and running.
Meanwhile, it's oil and coal, maybe natty, but natty's gonna take time too, isn't it?
Natty in the fall.
ReplyDeleteHEK - Couldn't find the conference call, maybe they took it down.
ReplyDeleteCREE - Looks like an entry here.
ReplyDeleteWatched CREE today also.
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