Sunday, February 27, 2011
2/27/11 No Plans To Leave The Red House
The best solos start out muted, wander off key, and draw you into a wall of sound before tapering off at the end. Kind of like a good wslk/workout. My next foray into the ultrashorts will only be taken into the high notes of the Red House, likely with time horizons that give new meaning to the term ultrashort.
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It might be a good idea to keep your finger hovering over the button in anticipation of the moment when AP reports Ghaduffi just stepped down.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You around? I actually read the entire RAS 10K. It looks to me like they sold 5M shares since the end of Q4. I guess it depends on what they are doing with that money in the long run, but it kinda goes against what they said in the CC right out of the gate.
ReplyDeleteKinder Morgan (KMI)was an IPO a couple weeks ago and has declined a bit after a fast takeoff. Its the parent company of the pipeline MLP (KMP). There is another one in the family under KMI. It pays a div without the complications of an MLP and it manages KMP. It is KM?. KMI is the big daddy that owns most of both. KMI used to be public then went private and now public again. Article in Morningstar explains much in detail. Also SA articles. Very convoluted.
ReplyDeleteThe Morningstar article: Three Ways to Invest in Kinder Morgan
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Three-Ways-to-Invest-in-ms-764632654.html?x=0&.v=2
KM?=KMR, y=0% (I thought there was a div). KMP y=6.17%, KMI=0% but a div is promised by summer.
All are probably priced rather high presently. (See the comments to the Morningstar article)
Ok, now I got it; KMR pays a stock divy equivalent to what KMP pays.
ReplyDeleteProspects for US Banks and the Economic Recovery
ReplyDeleteThe Reason Why It's Not A Recovery But Another Scam
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=yJfIJLnvbUk
P.S. the above courtesy of Jesse, t3d
ReplyDeleteT3D- Honestly, I'm almost afraid to watch it. Just like looking @ Zerohegde or CC for the past 2 years.
ReplyDeleteQuestion...Should I watch it to influence my trading?
Mark, it talks about a stock you guys like on the board and the banking sector, plus shadow housing inventory.
ReplyDeleteSomewhat related to your field, but not really. BTW, how is the environment for high end housing now in your area. Thanks
I've missed a few days of reading but I just glanced thur yesterday's posts.
ReplyDeleteMark, you mention DNR from time to time right?
ticker DNR
Denbury Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, operation, and exploration of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf Coast region of the United States primarily in Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, and Alabama. It also owns carbon dioxide (CO2) reserves in the east of the Mississippi River and sells CO2 to third party industrial users. Denbury Resources was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas
T3D- The projects for me, high end, are still there. What really surprised me was how busy my subs are. That's a better gauge than what I do. They are very busy. I do get the sense though that people are more inclined to work with what they have instead of buying up or building.
ReplyDeleteKind of a wired comment...Even though I have a facebook page, I really don't follow it. But when I do, it's like nothing really important is going on. Pictures of trips abroad, etc. Honestly, I don't get it.
Did you guys catch Cramer on Friday? He was pumping the Bakken Shale. Mentioned, of course, without me...BEXP.
ReplyDeleteThe guy does crack me up...
"The Bakkken is a' rockin"...
MOG gets big points for that one.
hey Mark - i mentioned it when that earnings report came out that after trying to figure out how they would make a lot of money, i just didn't see it. the upside i see with their current business model is about $.40/share in taxable EPS, given that they already have high occupancy rates and low loan losses. that gives the stock some upside, but not a ton. i'm too dense to think up how else the company can make money, though, so there's probably something i'm missing.
ReplyDeletei'm probably dumb in saying this but i'm thinking REDF is pretty attractive at these levels. i bought and sold last thursday/friday and thinking the bottom is in around the 5s.
Port- Yep. MOG liked DNR @ 17ish.
ReplyDeleteTOF- The dilution of 5M shares only came out on Friday. Any comment on that? To me, that seems like a book value about .20c less in 2 months.
ReplyDeleteExcellent morningstar article on the MLP's. Thx.
ReplyDeletereally? shit i have no idea. i honestly haven't been following it as much because i don't think the upside is as great as i thought it was a month or two ago. who knows though. it still has a book value of like $9/share. i think their book value is accurate too so they could always sell off their properties and recoup that book value.
ReplyDeletei'm trying to stay focused on bigger picture investment ideas to be honest. like long term growth in india and china and themes that will last a long time. trying to find the next bidu type emerging market company. not sure that REDF is the one. i can't figure out if i will make more money sticking with a couple of long term theme stocks or sticking with shorter term trends that are working. it seems like its easier to spot the latter. i was looking at my performance for the past couple of years and i've actually outperformed what i would have done if i held on to my BAIDU (i loaded the boat back in 2006) so maybe i should just stick with what's working cuz what are the odds any rational man can stick with a BAIDU after it goes up from $7 or $8 to $120? this investing stuff is crazy man.
it def seems that its easier to spot the shorter term trends and just ride them for 10-40% gains.
ReplyDeleteand then hop to the next trend. plus, the markets move so much faster now so trends die out quickly and bulls become bears quicker it seems. shit wasn't it only like 6 months ago that skechers was in the middle of a bull market for shoes. it's at a 52 week low now.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, if I'm reading the 10K right. There was no specific filing.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm going to pull a 'David' and place sell orders for all of my shares @ 3.52 and 3.54. If it trades like it has the last few days, the MM with spike it up if he has sell orders to deal with.
Today was a balmy 68* here, quite nice. Tomorrow will be even warmer but arrives along with rain and high winds.
ReplyDeleteport2013 -- what morningstar article on MLPs were you referring to? Does anyone else know?
ReplyDeleteNow that Mark is pulling "David" with RAS, I'll have to follow him with my CCJ, which means I am pulling a "Mark" and placing a sell limit order at $42.50 for 100 shares of CCJ out of 500 I currently own. I think my cost basis for these 100 shares is around $41.50, so it will be another $100 profit if executed but more importantly it will increase the amount of cash I have on hand, and I am tight on cash now.
ReplyDeleteAlso, consistent with the trading rule of not letting a profit turn into a loss, I am lowering my buy to cover stop limit order on VXX to $33.65/$33.75, the same price at which I entered my short.
ReplyDeleteDavid....see my 3 posts on KMI near top of page.
ReplyDeleteAONE - Reports AH, then we see how the rechargeable battery bus. did this Q.
ReplyDeleteHow many times do I have to remind myself to not short a market in a clear uptrend? I'm currently sitting on a $1,600 unrealized loss on my SPY puts. Luckily, it's a small portion of my total portfolio and I'm holding BAC calls as well as SPY calls to offset them.
ReplyDeleteJust Another Manic Monday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5286 comments) on Mon, 02/28/2011 - 09:51 #80570
ReplyDeleteToo dangerous to short/No time to be opening longs. Wish I had a few miners, but cash comes in a close second.
F- Off @ 15.12. Don't like the way it opened. Nice trade though. Thanks for pointing it out TOF.
ReplyDeletetof- We all fall into that trap- see my TZA/VXX trades from last Friday. I at least followed through on lessons learned in the past and took my losses near the close. These ultrashorts are like bulldogs if you hold longer than a few minutes.
ReplyDeletealrighty...sold those SPY puts...just holding on to longs now. selloff should commence.
ReplyDeleteMark - I actually just added a little to my F long. I love the way it's opening...juking people out.
added F at $15.10
ReplyDeleteBAC has been strong all morning.
ReplyDeleteSold my HEK at $5.80. with oil coming back down i figure nat gas might also come back down which means HEK will come back to prior break out levels.
ReplyDeleteA few shares of RAS got peeled off @ 3.52.
ReplyDeleteT3D's MDW is a'cockin..
ReplyDeleteAdded some BAC calls...added April $13 calls at $1.59 avg. Looks like an inverted head & shoulders pattern on the hourly.
ReplyDeleteUltra's are great if catch the right bus, otherwise you're just standing under a power wire loaded with pigeons.
ReplyDeleteDC mayor wants to install a street car line similar to Portland's.
TOF - HEK - I still say it's not the natty play pushing these along (yet), it's the hydrocarbon liquids produced by the natty well.
ReplyDeleteMan...I'm REALLY glad I sold my DPTR.
ReplyDeleteMark - The Fed is going to approve several banks for raising dividends soon. Banks should rise in anticipation of this. I currently have a pretty large position in BAC stock and calls (April + August + November in the money calls)
ReplyDeleteSold all of my RAS @ 3.47. Never changed the level II bid structure. Guess the MM took them.
ReplyDeleteSomething tells me long gone are the days my portfolio gains 3~4%/day for several consecutive days before resting for a repeat, now it's just bouncing around based on the news event du-jour.
ReplyDeleteWondering if this isn't a state of complacency I'm experiencing.
TOF- Yeah, I read that. Hunting around right now.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11022966/1/big-banks-could-post-30-dividends-analyst.html
ReplyDeleteLoaded to the gills with cashola. Latter.
ReplyDeleteLong VLO
ReplyDeleteAdded some more April $13 BAC calls at $1.48. Now have 30 of them at $1.55 avg. It seems that the worst time to buy this stock is when it is up big during the day because it will reverse those gains almost immediately. Maybe that is telling me to get the hell away from it.
ReplyDeleteCDE - Great earnings.
ReplyDeleteh chriminy...why did i sell those puts? better yet, why do i bother with short term moves?
ReplyDeleteContribute earlier and more to your 401K (Wall Street Execs need an increase on their bonus').
ReplyDeleteHopefully gold can retain today's advance...
ReplyDeleteNFLX/CRM...Yikes.
ReplyDeleteCRM - That chart looks just like the GMO chart, gonna retest $125 me thinks. ;)
ReplyDeleteS&P - Is S&P gonna hold onto the 20? Kinda looks that way to me...
Remember when I mentioned BCON was doing the 10-1 reverse split and asked if there was a play as it was trading @ .20 AH that day? So that would be 2.00 after the split. It's 2.90 right now.
ReplyDeleteProbably this is what is hitting CRM
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704150604576166280156761902.html?KEYWORDS=salesforce
VMW - Is this a buy today? Kinda looks that way.
ReplyDeleteBCON - Sure, the flywheel is the best invention since the wheel and axle!
ReplyDeleteCPSL - Anybody think this one might revisit $2.20 anytime in the near future? Surely better op than BCON?
The S&P chart is not looking pretty intraday. In the past, this was always corrected by a strong rally in the last 1 or 2 hours of the day, just as intraday traders would give up on the long side. Let's see if such a rally materializes today.
ReplyDeleteCRM- Thanks for the link. Well, it's not $140 anymore :)....Seriously though, the CEO gives me the Fing creeps. Wouldn't touch it either way.
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Is this a buy @ $3.31?
ReplyDeleteLove VMW's products. Top notch.
ReplyDeleteVMW - They're advertising their cloud products on the DC gov. targeted radio big time, so I checked the chart. This is the station all government contractors constantly run their adds, so I look at their charts when the adds run. ;)
ReplyDeleteFederal news radio, I guess you'd call it. All news all the time. Weather, some economic data (my 4 hr delayed source), world news, sponsored by government contractor advertising.
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing much response anywhere to a lower dollar, are we reaching a saturated state or something, or is there a spring somewhere being rewound?
ReplyDeleteAdded to my F long at $14.95. Now have a decent size position in the stock. My thinking is:
ReplyDelete(1) support at $14.5 held twice...this is an attempt to backfill and trap bears.
(2) oil will come off when Gadhafi falls..and he's gonna fall. Anything oil dependent will skyrocket.
(3) F is oversold yet still in a bullish long term trend and it looks like the bottom is in for F short term.
TOF- Still like QPSA? Kinda interesting here.
ReplyDeleteSTEC?
ReplyDeleteF- I heard a guy on the radio this morning saying credit for car sales is widely available now. Should help.
ReplyDeleteHa!! They're talking about the credit issue for autos on CNBC right now. Too funny.
ReplyDeleteGDX/GDXJ have rolled over HARD.
ReplyDeleteI stepped back from the screen and now I see that the indices have indeed reversed toward the end of the day, just when every TA student has concluded confidently that lower highs and lower lows intraday for SPY means that one should bail out of any longs. Same old, same old -- computers screwing human traders...
ReplyDeleteBy some miracle, my sell limit order at $1.16 was triggered today for 5000 shares of ECUXF I repurchased last week at $1.11. Well, in order to rinse and repeat, I have just placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $1.10.
ReplyDeleteDo computers orgasm?
ReplyDeleteMark - No I'm not looking at QPSA anymore. I got a really bad feeling about it after reading more into it. The company has been around for a while now and from what I'm reading they're doing some shady almost multi level marketing thing to draw in traffic. I'd avoid it. I ran for the hills after reading more into it. I think I lost about $400 on it.
ReplyDeleteMark > what did they say regarding autos on CNBC? I only watch that channel for the strategy session thing and for the half time show. the rest of the shows and people on it are really annoying.
ReplyDeleteAnon > if by orgasm you mean freeze or go to a blue screen then yeah my computer orgasms almost every day.
TOF- Got it, thanks.
ReplyDeleteBCOND....Someone like's their gizmo. +20% today.
ReplyDeleteOK, MDW sold the rest @1.88, I do not want to be a pig for a two day trade. Looking to get back in on pullback drill.
ReplyDeleteFreeze or blue, I thought that was frigid.
If tomorrow was not first day of the month I would take a shot short here, still may if SP close weak. I will key off of 5 minute SP cash which to me looks as if we will fail here on the bounce.
GL guys and girls
ECUXF...That is a freakin miracle David! You better thank the baby Jesus for that one :)
ReplyDeleteAKAM in focus.
ReplyDeleteCorrection: I will key off of 5 minute SP cash which to me looks as if we will fail here on the bounce.
ReplyDeleteI meant to say 60 minute SP cash chart.
t3d
Q's would be off 2% if it wasn't for AAPL. Fugly Mugly in tech land.
ReplyDeleteIYR hasn't blinked at all...
ReplyDeleteLooks like ole Warren is putting a bid underneath this market today. If we hold here it's huge for the bulls because everyone and their mother was/is expecting further downside or at least a retracement of the gains from Thursday afternoon/Friday.
ReplyDelete"Beacon Power And Northwestern Energy Sign Contract For Flywheel Energy Storage System"
ReplyDeleteDJ news
"ECUXF...That is a freakin miracle David! You better thank the baby Jesus for that one :)"
ReplyDeleteOr thank someone how put a market buy order instead of a buy limit order for a very-low volume ECUXF. :)
I see that SLV rebounded over the last 30 minutes, so I increased my buy limit order to $1.11 and just reloaded the 5000 shares that were sold this morning at $1.16.
Placed a sell limit order at $1.16 for the 5000 shares of ECUXF that I just picked up at $1.11.
ReplyDeleteDNN, I'm going to study this chart for clues how I should be attempting to trade MDW going forward. I did not have the courage to buy DNN at around 1.78 and it has just continued to run.
ReplyDeleteInsight from above is welcome too.
Since tomorrow is the first day of the month, and we know what happens on the first of each month (stocks rally), I decided that I need to buy something else in addition to ECUXF. Even though CCJ is behaving like a dog lately, today's decline did stop at yesterday's open, which feels like a natural support level. So maybe CCJ rallies strongly tomorrow? Well, I just reloaded the 100 shares of CCJ at $40.76 (which I sold on Friday at $41.17 after buying them at $40.22) and now placed a sell limit order at $41.76, for another quick $100 profit. These profits may seem very small, but if received often enough, they should add up. :) I currently have 600 shares of CCJ, so a $1 up move in CCJ will have a more noticeably impact on my whole position.
ReplyDeleteGotta love the flywheel, best low-tech solution to a high-tech problem since electricity was invented! ;)
ReplyDeleteMy computer experiences an erotic orgasm about one a month or so.
DNN - Is that in reality a uranium play, an ore processing play, or a gold play? I read all kinds of different things.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I haven't looked close enough to figure it all out but they seem to be quite involved.
Somebody at CC was trading it and I liked it but he was bearish on it b/c it hadn't met his expectation, so I took his word and moved on.
GMO - Maybe she can jump over the 50 tomorrow, totally by surprise and to the complete dismay of everyone.
ReplyDeleteAONE - Oops, not so good judging by the reaction.
ReplyDeleteTRP - Nice little pop there, these energy companies are the shizzle!
ReplyDeleteDang- they ran SPY AH to a new high for the day. Impressive.
ReplyDeleteCP- Take a look at PSTR and DPTR.
ReplyDeleteI hear the oil trucks are scrambling around West Tx. like madmen...
ReplyDeletePSTR - That's a low P/E, I do like pipeline/storage.
Sheesh, I wonder if energy plans on taking a rest anytime soon, I'd hate to eat the bananna on a new position to have it collapse 20% the very next day.
Interesting! The google/finance intraday chart for ECUXF today is very different from the one at yahoo finance. Similarly, a noticeable difference is seen for Thursday, with yahoo finance chart being much more detailed. The yahoo finance chart does show a trade today at $1.16 -- my sell limit order being hit. :)
ReplyDeleteKendra just spent 35 minutes recounting her 3 minute fire drill at school...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete