Friday, February 4, 2011
2/4/11 Chance Or Coincidence/ An Extraordinary Rally
The Role Of Chance And Coincidence/ An Extraordinary Rally newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5232 comments) on Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:28 #79109
From Thomas Kida's book 'Don't Believe Everything You Think:'
What causes us to dismiss the possibility the SPX can run from 1040 to 1350 with barely a pullback?
It can happen.
For the sake of argument, let's say a run similar to the one we've had since last August might happen once in a hundred 6-month time periods. Then it's not impossible. Just implausible.
Who's to say we're not in the midst of an outlier event? Kida's point (he uses roulette in his example) is that we homo sapiens love to believe there's a reason for everything. Sometimes, it's just chance or coincidence.
This current rally, IMO, is not so extraordinary as to necessarily attribute it to market manipulation. It's just an extraordinary rally.
Re: The Role Of Chance And Coincidence/ An Extraordinary Rally newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5233 comments) on Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:37 #79110 (in reply to #79109)
Put another way, would you agree that the SPX eventually retakes 1500? There are an infinite number of paths it could take between 667 and 1500. The one we're on is the one that's unfolding. Why argue with it?
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Why don't we all just ----ing sit back and enjoy the ----ing rally?
ReplyDelete- Al Davis
"Why argue with it?'. I like that.
ReplyDeleteThat kind of goes back to what Craig points out with regard to Landry's line of reasoning. WTF are we to think we know better than life itself how things are supposed to work?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I hear you. Has Craig surfaced over at CC? Maybe I should shot him an email.
ReplyDeleteBeen looking over bby more. They have reduced shs outst by 20% in pastt 5 years. They generate 1/10th of mkt cap in fcf every yr. In another 5 yrs with no growth they can either keep buying back shs and generate $4+ in eps or pay $7 in divs
ReplyDeleteTOF- I had an interesting conversation with one of my clients who knows the CEO of BBY. Before I tell you what he said, can you readily identify where their income comes from? This isn't a trick question. My clients comment surprised me and I don't want to cloud your take.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Let me make this simpler. In store sales of merchandise v. every thing else.
ReplyDeleteMark, I know where it comes from. S.A. to give a hint. I think the market has good reason to have a negative outlook on Best Buy. First their #1 competitor goes belly up and they don't increase market share? My computer savvy friends use BBY as a show room for Amazon. They look over the product physically and then buy it cheaper on Amazon. Walmart, Costco, Amazon, Target are taking customers.
ReplyDeleteRB- SA is one, give me the real big one.
ReplyDeleteDamn, for a burned out hippie, you know your chit.
I am just guessing, But it must be the Goon squad. If that's true my negativity will change toward the company. I think of IBM's success of going from retail manufacturing merchandiser to service provider. That is a niche that can be exploited! I'm sick of helping people with their f'n tech peoblems. Please call the goon squad to show you how to set up your f'n printer. Burned out hippie, I resemble that remark.
ReplyDeleteDing, Ding, Ding!!! Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner!!
ReplyDeleteDamn RB, your right. I found it hard to believe, but that's what I was told. And I'll tell you what, granted, my AV system is pretty advanced, but I can't mess with the thing. Hell, if Haraln starts messing with chit I'm on the phone...and I know what the hell I'm doing!
Remember, JB always looks to the service agreements when evaluating tech stocks.
Go smoke a bowl bra!
Yeah, their money is prob made on installs and maint contracts and repairs/upgrades
ReplyDeleteWow, I'd hate life making a living off maint. contracts and repairs on stuff that really wasn't designed to be repaired in the first place, rather just tossed in the shit can.
ReplyDeletePrice an install
ReplyDeletePrice a maint contract
Price an upgrade or repair
They are almost all profit compared to selling boxes
Its not repairs Chickie. Its setting up systems, networks, AVs,Smart Home computer systems, Cloud profiles. Tech assistance to small business.BBy would be the go to place for the tech unsavvy people and then they could expand into business. THis is where their growth will come from if they are smart. Shoot BBY should hire me as VP of Goon squad.
ReplyDeleteOr what Cheapy said.
ReplyDeleteIn the enterprise s/w biz standard support costs between 17%-21% per year (based on the original amount spent on license), this goes on in-perpetuity, most large s/w co's would fold if they couldn't count on that cash cow, renewal rates run close to 98%-99%, once you start adding on bells and whistles that "great deal" the CIO negotiated doesn't seem so hot.
ReplyDeleteAt ORCL in some of the mega price-list deals we would give them everything at 95% off list (for original license purchase only) then reps would spend years nickel and dime-ing the poor customer to death until they would eventually freak out, the rep would walk away a millionaire and the company would toss new meat at the customer.
In a nutshell this is why SAAS and Cloud are so dangerous to the large on-premise enterprise app co's (hardware co's too), for SAP it's like trying to change the wheels on the car while they're going 100 mph.
The big winners will be the service providers like IBM, ATT, Amazon (yep, Amazon s/b the leader in the public cloud space), check and see what Cap Gemini is trying to do (Dell and HPQ too).
When you listen to the earnings calls see if you can pick up on ITO/BPO/SAAS/Cloud bookings growth - these will be the new 'service' contract cash cows.
have a great weekend Cats, my DIL and hubby are in town today so it's chores, chores, chores
BBY - Service contracts - Okay, what you guys said. I'm confused by all the TLA's, probably don't fully comprehend BBY's cloud prowess or business enterprise software/hdwr service contracts.
ReplyDeleteCCME - Any Pumpcast News reports? Their auditor, Deloitte Touche, ranks highly(top shelf), but I'm not sure what's really going on there or if yesterday's action was just a short covering rally. My current suspicion is the hoopla was/is unjustified.
CAST - Their auditor is Deloitte, as well.
Have the shorts finally bitten off more daicon than they can chew? My guess is they've covered, and that their rep will become relegated to the round file.
'67 Barracuda Conv. - This guy is tough, he's got me up to $9.5k now!
ReplyDeleteBby has been gettin most of their $ $ from svc contracts and geek squad for yrs no?
ReplyDeleteTOF - Seriously, I wouldn't know but apparently so. I always thought of service as a necessary evil when it came to consumer electronics but maybe BBY isn't all about consumer electronics?
ReplyDeleteI always believed the appliance and electronics business consisted of white goods and brown goods, where brown goods generated a good deal of the margin.
Trust me, I know nothing specific to BBY's business model or the origin of their margin. I also don't want to consume the airwaves with my ignorance.
I know where there is a nice 98 Pontiac Convt for sale,
ReplyDelete*TODAY ONLY*
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=330525032771&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT#ht_3815wt_1165
Oh CB, come on now, there were only 4200 conv Barracuda's built in '67, and this one's got the granny slant motor.
ReplyDelete220731889591
Well, looks like there were far fewer '98 T/A conv's built: 1,074
ReplyDeleteYeah, surprisingly few. Most are black, red, white, blue, blue-green, and silver. They only made the gold 1 day, I heard, mostly to build the "Gold Rush" promo car for the big shows, a sppare, and a few more for GM execs, I think. The paint for it is wildly expensive, at $190 per pint
ReplyDeleteHuh, then maybe $9500 for a rust-free '67 cuda is too low, but I'm not about to pay more than that.
ReplyDeleteI think they've some bidding to do on the T/A before the owner will part with it, color doesn't normally set me off but I'm really tired of my 2B-red 'stang.
You want an unusual but red conv, with aluminum motor, why not go for the original? Here's one:
170597891119
I like the W31 if I was looking at Cutlasses...
ReplyDeleteBut my problem is that I'll only have a 2 car garage at my new place, and my wife has a car, so I can only keep one. I may pull the auction on the 98. I could just drive it forever, but every scratch and ding I'd find would hurt me badly.
An old builder friend used to say, when a car is tip-top, there's really only one way for them to go.
ReplyDeleteFlorida's a great place to drive a conv around anyway, but not in the rain.
I used to own an F85 conv, white with blue int. Nice ride, shoulda kept it instead of trading for a '69 chevelle. Gimme an unusual or cool-looking comfortable cruiser I can enjoy on the Skyline drive, I'll get bugs all over it.
Yeah, I'm thinking of just ending the auction, doing the minor stuff I found it needs, and just driving it and selling the beater car.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't replace it with another conv as nice for that, anyway
"Banks in Egypt are scheduled to reopen Sunday." I'm not sure which ones, when or how many were closed, all or none, Cairo only?
ReplyDelete28+ MPG is great performance. Sure do like fuel injection, the best thing that's happened to the internal combustion engine since the electric starter.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't worry too much about just driving it as long as it's something you want to drive, then it's all worth it.
Keeping it dry and warm goes a long way towards making it last and retain value, life's too short to sweat the small stuff and you could make more than the current bid in one day's RBY trading anyway. ;)
Pick two keepers?
I have to have a beater for rain/salt/snow/ice, mine's a '95 Buick.
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ReplyDelete