http://tinyurl.com/4ru9oll
Holding positions this morning feels too much like standing around hoping I don't get taken out (by a bus!). Started closing CSCO premarket, and will continue to lighten up until I'm back to 100% cash.
CSCO actually has a good chance of rocketing on guidance and/or a dividend announcement after the close. But given the fact that I was using CSCO basically as a time deposit (with too much invested in the stock), and a sense that the market is looking for an excuse to sell off, prudence dictates moving to the sidelines.
2nd - oh come on now! you gotta be able to hold through earnings if it's gonna double by the cycle peak my friend.
ReplyDeleteseriously, though...CSCO actually already announced a dividend last fall:
http://www.benzinga.com/market-update/10/09/473147/csco-ceo-reports-2-dividend
Bought a few BAC March $13 Calls.
ReplyDeleteMOTR getting hit on guidance.
ReplyDeletetof- I can't be gaming as much as my age. Up +4.5% YTD is actually 45% of my goal for the year. So I'm awaiting a better pitch.
ReplyDeleteSold another 1/3 of my AKAM calls at $3.85 that I bought at $3.2. I'll let the remaining calls ride through earnings this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteBought a little CHGI at $2.08. Very small position.
ReplyDeleteRAS- What happened??
ReplyDeleteBack in full position on RAS at $2.86
ReplyDeleteActually looks like I got some RAS at $2.82 as well.
ReplyDeleteMark > someone unloaded 700k shares at the market on RAS...I took that as a buying opportunity if only for an intraday trade.
ReplyDeletetof- Someone unloading 700k shares is a buying opportunity? Maybe it's a red flag?
ReplyDelete2nd - I think people are scared to hold RAS into earnings because of the past 3 quarters. So people selling before earnings reduces the selling pressure, if there is any, after earnings.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking on RAS is this: the past 3 quarters were during rough periods for CRE and the markets in general. We're in a much different environment now. Weakness in a company that just started paying dividends again for the first time in over 2 years that is in an industry clearly on the rebound is one I want to take advantage of.
RAS closes green today.
ReplyDeleteRAS- 1/3 @ 2.85.
ReplyDeleteScrew it...sold the last of my AKAM calls at $4.05.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm probably wrong, but when RAS was getting hit on volume @ 2.85, the Level II strip didn't change. That tells me the MM is @ that price.
ReplyDeleteMark - who knows man, who knows. I'm just trying to figure out the psychology of people trading/investing in this company. I think there is a lot of nervousness surrounding this company going into earnings, and rightfully so, and the best way to clear this is to sell off in bits and pieces. The sell off from $3 to $2.5 cleared some of that. Hopefully today's action clears more so we're left with stronger holders post earnings.
ReplyDeleteby the way, UBS looks like it's breaking out over a very long resistance line.
ReplyDeleteRe: The Dark Knight/ Closing CSCO Ahead Of Earnings
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by wpepper (25 comments) on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:14 #79404 (in reply to #79382)
Did the same 2nd_ave. I originally sold Feb 20 puts on CSCO but in the last 3 earnings reports it dropped to a new low. I may reestablish a trade after earnings. As Vad pointed out it's better to be on the right side of a trade then take chances on the left.
Re: The Dark Knight/ Closing CSCO Ahead Of Earnings newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5245 comments) on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:24 #79406 (in reply to #79404)
ReplyDeletewpepper- Thanks for the 'encouragement.' I was debating whether to withhold a trading position in order to game earnings, but you're right. Taking the last of it off @ 22.10, now back to 100% cash.
TOF- Yeah, I have to say though, that's probably the first time I've ever been able to side step such a big hit...for now :)! I'm thinking I'll place another 1/3 order in @ 2.77ish when I have to leave and then see what happens @ the close.
ReplyDeleteMark - it totally depends on your time frame. I think the markets go back to the 1,500 levels next year. If that's the case then RAS will do very well. Short term who the hell knows. But my first instinct is that weakness in a stock that is in an uptrend should be bought.
ReplyDeleteObviously, tomorrow the stock will be trading at $2.4 and I'll be regretting buying back in.
ReplyDeleteThe way I'm thinking is that even if the stock goes to $2.4 I'll still be up 15% this year.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep, I've protected enough profits to take a little longer term view.
ReplyDeleteBEXP is an animal. Spit the bit on that one.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you're in the same boat Mark...as far as having big gains already. So why not take a chance when the stock goes down 10% from Monday's highs? Anyway, do we really think that $3 is the top for a while for RAS? I highly doubt it.
ReplyDeleteGL guys!
ReplyDeleteRAS - I'm waiting, hard to resist here.
ReplyDeleteOIH/XLE is taking the market down.
ReplyDeleteCP - Notice how IYT is getting stronger? This market has been doing this for a while now. A couple of sectors sell off and strength moves to another one.
WTF did Ben SAY?
ReplyDeleteNSC - green as well. Rotation to transports?
ReplyDeleteWhat I heard second hand was Ben told Congress to cut the deficit.
ReplyDeleteMama told me there'd be days like this.
ReplyDeleteFollowing 2nd lead and started reducing my CSCO position. I am planning to hold some of it through earnings. I have 2000 shares on which I have call written (can't keep naked calls) and I will keep another 1000 as my core position. The rest will be for sales today. Hoping to get a better price as the day progresses and investors get greedy.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- your position in RAS should do well now, since I was stopped out this morning (flat) from my RAS position.
ReplyDeleteAlso, my sell short stop order was triggered on FCX at $54.50 for 500 shares. Should have kept that stop at $55 instead. :) Now I placed a buy to cover stop at $55.10/$55.20, just above its previous intraday high today.
ReplyDeleteAs for TWM, it came within 3 cents of hitting my stop today at $11.45 -- wouldn't it be a shame if my stop was hit and then TWM started a multi-week rally?
ReplyDeleteFinally, I see Chinese small caps (HAO) off by 2.82% now, WATG falling off a cliff, CAAS being down as well, but SORL being up again! Buffett is still buying it! Well, I looked at the 6-month chart of SORL and saw that it follows WATG and CAAS pretty well. So I don't think it can keep bucking the trend for a long time and I just sold at $7.46 my 500 shares of SORL that I picked up at $7.05 a couple of days ago. Still keeping the 10 March $7.50 puts I sold on SORL.
ReplyDeleteIYT looks strong...looks like the selloff in that is done. As such, I have decided to go long IYT at $91.94.
ReplyDeleteI also added a couple of April $13 calls on BAC at $1.77.
Looks like BAC is relatively stronger than all of the other major banks.
ReplyDeleteReduced my position in CSCO to 2000 shares on which I have calls written. Sold last batch at 22.02. CSCO seems to be trailing down. Sold WATG to avoid losses since it is falling off the cliff.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that the stock indices have found their support intraday, and so this might be it for a dip the bears will get. So I just sold all my VXX at $28.77 (both the 500 shares I purchased at $29 and the 250 I added at $28.50), for a loss of $120 or so. If the market keeps going down, I would rather be making money on my FCX short.
ReplyDeleteIgor, did you close your WATG covered calls as well?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if everything emerging is moving to everything US and if that is the main reason why our markets won't go down. There was a crapload of money in emerging markets for a while. What if inflation becomes persistent enough overseas that it causes manufacturing to come back in the US? I mean, we have had a huge reduction in manufacturing over the years. If that comes back to us maybe our markets do get to the levels that Birinyi suggested a few weeks ago by 2013/14. As in 2800 S&P.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I never sold the WATG covered calls. Bad move....-) but made it easy to get out of that position.
ReplyDeleteWhen you clock the human race with the stop watch of history, it's a new record every time. And who wins and who loses? It's people like you, and you, people who are altered.
ReplyDelete"What if inflation becomes persistent enough overseas that it causes manufacturing to come back in the US?"
ReplyDeleteI've been saying this for nearly two years. Congress needs to act on this to enable the process.
And in terms of inflation, we should probably try to dissect that in detail. Currently, food inflation seems to be a problem overseas, but inflation overseas in general makes foreign products more expensive for import to US, and so tilts the scales in favor of employment here.
ReplyDeleteI can't help trying to understand the mechanisms at work responsible for overseas inflation:
* A hot economy(ies)
* Currency pegs to a falling dollar
* Insufficient natural resource availability
* Food supply/production growth lagging demand growth
* Recent foul weather, floods, fires, etc.
Long SWY Mar $21 calls at $1.1. Oil and energy are backing off, plus SWY has seen a big spike in calls for some reason. Shit...i just figured it out:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-154759/Supermarket-giant-3bn-Safeway-buy-bid.html
Holy shit...I think SWY is going to get bought out here. I can't believe I stumpled on this. I just bought a bunch of March 21 calls...about $12k worth...at $1.12 avg.
ReplyDeleteThis company generated $1.7 Billion in FCF last year. It reduced the amount of shares outstanding from 450 Million to 385 Million in the past 4 years with all of the FCF it generates. This comapny is pretty cheap and I totally can see why it would be a buyout candidate.
err...stumbled...
ReplyDeleteThe intraday rally off the support level I detected in the indices a couple of hours ago might be over -- the indices reversed just when they reached the prior support (now resistance) level established during the opening hour. So I just bought 500 shares of VXX at $28.53.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Looks the same to me.
ReplyDeleteAAPL under pressure right now.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Good call. I think the markets may have topped out here for the short term. Yesterday's move definitely looked parabolic to me. Then the question becomes: do we hold our longs...
ReplyDeleteIf CSCO craps the bed again then we could see the market at 1,260 pretty quickly.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep, it's up to Chambers.
ReplyDeleteIllini- UXG takes balls to hold man.
ReplyDeletePMI - I'm gonna guess Bernanke's testimony didn't deliver any fuel for the mortgage insurance market and the media is calling the treasury plan a punt.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me the White house is taking their half out of the middle.
RAS - Come to me baby, $2.69 and you're mine.
ReplyDeleteCP- Knowing RAS the way I do, you just might get your chance very soon!!
ReplyDeleteRAS might hit that today the way this market looks..
ReplyDeleteFiggin home builders are still strong.
ReplyDeleteRIG/UPL fuggly.
ReplyDeleteC/WFC/BAC breaking support.
ReplyDeleteI am glad that I didn't stop myself out of TWM yesterday at $11.50 and moved down my stop to $11.45 during the last 10 minutes of the day. Now, I decided to place a buy stop order for another 1000 shares at $11.75, just above the highs it was making during the last few days.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I sold my SORL just in time, close to today's high. :) My thinking was correct: SORL cannot fight alone the general downtrend in Chinese small caps and in the auto parts sector, and so any *individual* rally should be sold
ReplyDeleteIf the pattern of rallies to prior support (now resistance) levels is to hold, then S&P should rally now to $1318.
ReplyDeleteOur friend Doug Kass is shorting everything with 2 legs...
ReplyDeleteFCX already had a rally to its previous intraday support at $54.50 (which happened to be my entry into the short position) and was rejected at that level. So now I can safely move down my buy to cover stop to $54.50 so as to make sure I don't let a profit turn into a loss.
ReplyDeleteDavid - it looks like /es wants to go to 1,310 first...i wouldn't be surprised if we see a 3% correct again.
ReplyDeletecorrection that is.
ReplyDeleteRB- Pick up the phone. CLNE is on line 3.
ReplyDeleteSailing a sea of subsidies in search of a fabled passage.
ReplyDeleteOK, here comes the intraday rally to 1318 on S&P. Since the day is almost over, this rally will probably extend into the close. So I just sold at $28.72 the 500 shares of VXX I purchased an hour ago at $28.53. I am now flat on my latest venture into VXX, and so I'll be looking to buy some if VXX drops hard into the close today.
ReplyDelete1318 on S&P, as promised. :)
ReplyDeleteNow let's see if the last part of my prediction comes true as well -- "we have seen the S&P low for today."
ReplyDeleteMan...Lowry is right...no reason to sell until the trend tells you to do so.
ReplyDeleteMark - I dumped out of my last UXG and RBY on Feb 3 in order to reduce risk of a further downturn in PMs. Hind site says that was premature. It is very volatile, like the price of silver only more so.
ReplyDeleteWould now be a good time for the market to send a message to Washington, or is the market content with the current state of affairs and course of action?
ReplyDeleteJJG - Just keeps right on kickin' it.
ReplyDelete"10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Huge Demand from Indirect Bidders"
ReplyDeleteTOF- There's still time, but I was hoping for more weakness in RAS into the close.
ReplyDeleteBoy, that shakedown in aapl was nasty. Got to only up .5% on the day.
ReplyDeleteMark, funny you mentioned CLNE. I actually looked at a chart yesterday thinking wow it put in a bottom. Then i came to my senses. Everyone hates clean energy. I Imagine if you had a company named Dirty Energy you would be a 4 bagger this year.
ReplyDeleteLooks like BAC wants to take the baton from the energy sector. Now green.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Such an illusive bugger.
ReplyDeleteAs a rare occurrence, I was totally in sync with the market today, as all of my intraday predictions came true. :) Should have taken larger positions on all of them...
ReplyDeletePicked up some GMO @ $5.29 for a quick flip attempt tomorrow so as to take advantage of today's mini panic.
ReplyDeleteLong RNOW 26.31. Love V Halen.
ReplyDeleteRelative to today's close in VIX, its futures are still extremely compressed and contango is small. So I just picked up AH 500 shares of VXX at $28.42 (I have "corrected" my previous "mistake" of entering VXX at $29 a couple of days ago by day trading today my previous position to a flat balance, so now I am basically entering VXX anew).
ReplyDeleteAlso, I decided to try and follow CP in picking up more GMO now and placed a buy limit order AH for 1000 shares at $5.30. The bid/ask now is 5.30/5.40, so I might not get those shares that cheap, by let's see what happens...
ReplyDeleteI'm showing trendline support on AKAM at $46.80.
ReplyDeleteLong AKAM at $46.75
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- great gut call for you, once again, in getting out of CSCO today. Igor has just pointed out that it fell off a cliff after hours...
ReplyDeleteSeems to me that this CSCO selloff should be bought. Stock is cheap.
ReplyDeleteTo that note I bought some CSCO for a trade at $21.38
ReplyDeleteOn that note...that is.
ReplyDeleteOr to that end....
Added another lot of CSCO at $21.29.
ReplyDeleteAdded final lot of CSCO at $21.05
ReplyDeleteOk...I lied...last lot added at $20.68. Avg is now $20.99. Long 1500 shs.
ReplyDeleteI decided to follow TOF in his crazy CSCO game and just picked 200 shares at $20.70 and placed a buy limit order for 100 more shares at $20.50.
ReplyDeleteSold my 1,500 shs CSCO at $20.7. Damn that beast is volatile.
ReplyDeleteeww....sold my 200 shs AKAM at $42.9 just now. wtf just happened.
ReplyDeleteHm... By mistake, I entered my order to buy 100 more shares as a "sell" when CSCO was at $20.60, but then I corrected the result by buying 200 shares (instead of 100) at $20.50. So I have now picked up 300 shares AH at the average price of $20.60.
ReplyDeleteDamn... CSCO just keeps going down -- bought 100 more shares at $20.17 and placed a buy limit order for 100 more shares at $20.05.
ReplyDeleteThat order just got executed, and I just placed another buy limit at $19.90 for 100 more shares. Last one, I promise. Let's hope I'll be able to keep this promise better than TOF. :)
ReplyDeleteOK, bought 100 shares at $19.90 and I am stepping away from my screen now so as to stop buying it. :)
ReplyDeletelong 1500 shs of CSCO again at 19.98
ReplyDeleteOK, so I have picked up 600 shares of CSCO AH at the average price of $20.32. If CSCO drops below $20 tomorrow, then I'll sell $20 puts on it.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - That's kinda ugly, don't they have a business model?
ReplyDeletesell limit on CSCO at $20.35
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm glad the voice of reason spoke to you this morning, good choice realizing gains as opposed to allowing the pattern an opportunity to repeat.
ReplyDeleteThe one year chart looks like a bullish overall pattern but I'm envisioning a knocking the ball out of Candlestick event as one of a very long horizon.
Re: The Dark Knight/ Closing CSCO Ahead Of Earnings newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5247 comments) on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 17:37 #79442 (in reply to #79382)
ReplyDeleteThe bus showed up.
Alright, I'm picking a small position at 20.17...
ReplyDeleteRe: The Dark Knight/ Reopening A Small Position @ 20.17 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5248 comments) on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 17:43 #79443 (in reply to #79442)
ReplyDeleteTaking off with the loot.
Looks like the CSCO panic has subsided and the stock is drifting up. I should have waited for that to happen so as to enter on the RIGHT side of the V. Now CSCO is back to my cost basis AH. If CSCO closes flat tomorrow, imagine the feelings of those who rushed to sell it AH at -10%...
ReplyDeleteDavid...my thoughts exactly on CSCO.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, BAC apparently ain't gonna get crushed by a wikileak after all. Stock is going to $20 this yr. It's the best big cap play out there on the U.S.
2nd - Personally want to thank you for saving my life this morning and pushing me away from the upcoming bus. I likely would have been hit. I stayed with 2000 shares (out of 7000 position) on which I have calls written. Since I have a $20 call expiring next week I will be left with only a 1000 shares.
ReplyDeleteShould we expect a down day tomorrow based on Cisco news or everyone by now knows that Cisco problems are no longer the industry problems.
IGOR at the moment i think it is a pretty big "IF" that your Csco will be called away at $20.00.
ReplyDeleteIgor- That's the beauty of this blog- 'karma' can literally change overnight, and we all need to watch eachother's backs.
ReplyDeleteRB- But Igor's losses are mitigated by the premium on the calls...and if they DON'T get called away, he can just sell ANOTHER set of calls against them next month ;)
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm pretty sure my karma is going to change tomorrow morning when I wake up to a sea of red in RAS.
ReplyDeleteYes of coarse. If csco stays range bound 19-24 there is numerous income generating option strategies. Selling puts, selling volitility. spreads, calenders, playing the field, hard-ways, Don't come line, don't pass.
ReplyDeleteLOL- good one, RB!
ReplyDeletetof- The correlation between CSCO and RAS might actually be negative? I'm not sensing a total market meltdown at the moment.
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm not either. I watched an interview with some REIT CEO on CNBC today after hours. The guy said that in just the past month or two things have picked up quite a bit. Couple that with the RAS article I pasted a link to yesterday and I think (hope) RAS will have some good things to say on the CC tomorrow. I don't really care one way or the other because barring a bombshell, I'm willing to stay long the stock for a while. I am beginning to believe more and more that RAS could be a great income + capital gains investment over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteES -0.75 right now, so it appears any sell-offs are completely company-specific.
ReplyDeleteIgor, since you sold 50K shares of CSCO today, you might want to remind people of your cost basis. I believe you got those shares after selling $22.50 puts on CSCO the day after previous earnings announcement, so you cost basis was $20.40, right? This means you made about 75K on your position -- that's a lot of vodka for one Russian to digest! :)
ReplyDeleteI agree 2nd. Just look at JDSU.
ReplyDelete50,000 shares? Damn- and I thought I was holding a large position. Well, here's to you, Igor!
ReplyDeleteLook out, now! DJIA futes down -3...
ReplyDeleteNo, the market's not done ----ing with us.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete