3/10/11 Bull Market Bullshit?

http://tinyurl.com/4fvn4he

'Even if this bull market were to come to an end today, its second birthday, it would still go down in history as one of the most powerful in U.S. history.

And that’s worth noting, because it means that — to the extent this bull market continues into its third year of life — it will be venturing even further than it already has beyond what many of the historical norms would suggest we can rightfully expect.

So as my contribution to the birthday celebrations, I will compare the current bull market to its predecessors over the past century.

In fact, there have been only two other bull markets over the last century in which the Dow, during those bull market’s first two years, gained more than 86.7%. Those two were: The bull market of the 1920s (in which the Dow was sporting a 148.2% gain on its second birthday) and the bull market of the 1990s (in which the Dow was ahead 197.7% on its second birthday).

In other words, the current bull market in its first two years gained more than all but two of the past 33 bull markets. From this perspective, the current bull market would have to be considered as getting somewhat long in the tooth.

To be sure, there are other ways of slicing and dicing the data that paint less of a sobering picture. One comes by focusing on the life spans of the 14 prior bull markets that did make it to their second birthdays. On average, those 14 bull markets lived to be over three years old.'

Let's hope the markets rock 'n roll another year. But I'm hoping for a decent pullback first.