Sunday, March 13, 2011

3/13/11 Long Time Gone



Brett Arends lists several reasons why the time to be long may indeed be gone, at least until valuations and/or sentiment pull back to more attractive levels:

http://tinyurl.com/4gqw6db

The single observation that surprised me the most:

8. The public was just starting to buy stocks again.

Oh, brother. The U.S. private investor, who spent most of the 2009-10 rally getting out of stocks, started piling in again earlier this year. According to the Investment Company Institute, investors cashed out a net $31 billion from equity mutual funds between the start of March 2009 and the end of last year. But since Jan. 1, they have shoveled a net $33 billion back in. History has frequently shown that the public gets in -- and out -- at the wrong times, buying near peaks and selling near troughs. Is it happening again? I wish I felt better about this.

Thus assuming no typos, the average guy on the Street decided in the first two months of 2011 to reinvest every dollar he took off the table between March 2009 and December 2010? Kind of disturbing.
Posted by at

109 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    So it may indeed be a great time to get long NGas, which we all know has little correlation with market movements. If anything, a tendency towards negative correlation.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 10:25 AM

    From a common sense perspective, the news in Japan cannot be a good thing. Another reason to hang back right now.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    Plenty of conflicting signals, Friday may have been an initial fake-out move. It's not atypical for the first move to be the wrong one?

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  4. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 11:53 AM

    Natty - To fuel the fire, Japan's gonna need some LNG to supplement their power vacuum?

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  5. Telestar3dMarch 13, 2011 at 1:44 PM

    From Quick points:

    *What will happen if the market hears ANYTHING (and I mean anything) regarding the government's promise to switch to domestic cleaner fuels or if there is the slightest hint of a ban on fracking (poisons leaking into the groundwater)???? Remember that virtually nobody is long and short positions are at an all-time high.

    My take, this is why WPRT is a great play if the gov't makes sounds towards NGAS use, but I do not expect that they will. Currently WPRT works now on its own w/o help from gov't. Fracking ban could become a negative for WPRT if gas prices shoot up.

    *Contrary to popular belief, March is one of the most bullish months for natural gas as it represents the calm before the eventual "Oh my lord, hurricanes will take out the rigs and natural gas will triple overnight" banter. Average March return is 8%. April and May are about 5% added together.

    My take, Gulf of Mexico drill rigs are basically shut down now, not a factor this winter.

    For the long term NGAS certainly seems a good bet, but does not COP and XOM have both of those bases covered. Need more time to think about this but those are my first reactions.

    I have a friend who knows some smart people in oil business for three generations and they are negative on gas and have been for over two years and maintain this view.

    Something to monitor at this time for me.

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  6. AnonymousMarch 13, 2011 at 1:45 PM

    btw

    long WPRT

    T3D

    ReplyDelete
  7. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 1:47 PM

    LNG - 3/19 MP=$7

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  8. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 2:42 PM

    When the going gets tough, the tough are nowhere to be found.

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  9. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 3:51 PM

    SPX futes -10. I think it might be closer to -20 by market open. If things deteriorate in Japan, maybe worse.

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  10. teamonfuegoMarch 13, 2011 at 4:02 PM

    2nd - I agree...I think we may have hit our peak. I've been looking at stocks to buy over the weekend and I can't find too much that I have a ton of conviction with. I mean, I could buy F or BAC for the long term, but what's to say they don't pull back some given they have run from $1 and $3 to $19 and $19 respectively? Why wouldn't they pull back 50%? That's still 900% and 200% above lows 2 years ago.

    ReplyDelete
  11. teamonfuegoMarch 13, 2011 at 4:03 PM

    I guess you could say that about any stock. I just feel like my upside isn't much greater than my downside risk with a lot of stocks in the next several months at least.

    ReplyDelete
  12. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 4:13 PM

    tof- Exactly. The risk:reward just isn't there right now. As Brett Arends points out.

    ReplyDelete
  13. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 4:16 PM

    US Department of Energy cancels 2011 surplus uranium transfers
    under News February 5th, 2010 by IFandP Newsroom

    http://www.ifandp.com/article/001969.html

    March 2, 2011

    Secretary Chu Announces Determination of No Adverse Material Impact for Uranium Transfer to Fund Portsmouth Cleanup

    http://www.energy.gov/news/10157.htm

    ReplyDelete
  14. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 4:20 PM

    Uranium Drops 4.7% After U.S. Approves Fuel Transfers, UxC Says
    By Jason Scott - Mar 8, 2011 12:15 AM ET

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-08/uranium-drops-4-7-after-u-s-approves-fuel-transfers-uxc-says.html

    ReplyDelete
  15. MarkWMarch 13, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    Still a little under the weather. Dang, this thing has overstayed it's welcome at the Barry house.(5 weeks running)

    I hate it when we all seem to agree, but putting money to work here seems reckless other than a scalp. Let's say your a LT investor. How many are going to decide to put money to work tomorrow, Tue, Wed,?...etc.

    Now, maybe I'll wake up tomorrow full of piss and vinegar, but I wouldn't count on it :)

    ReplyDelete
  16. MarkWMarch 13, 2011 at 5:11 PM

    T3D- FWIW, MOG agrees with your comments. I'll wait until fall.

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  17. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    Nikkei down -566 points.

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  18. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 5:38 PM

    Many Japanese semiconductor manufacturers will be interrupted for at least a month. Some more, others less. They will be racing to recover and recalibrate the equipment if their buildings and support facilities are still functional and electricity remains available.

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  19. Telestar3dMarch 13, 2011 at 5:45 PM

    Best wishes to the citizens of Japan. Looking at this disaster makes me question living on an island in the middle of the Pacific. There is only two ways off, sea and air. Our one main airport would more than likely be shut down if we had a similar event here.

    Just thinking out loud, Get better soon Mark I had that junk for 5 weeks here myself a few weeks ago. Did not stop coughing for three weeks--sucked.

    ReplyDelete
  20. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 6:20 PM

    Nikkei - Seems like capital is departing Japan tonight. Maybe it'll reverse? Oh wait, their factories (Yes, they have factories, you can find the definition of factory in Wikipedia) are out of service.

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  21. MarkWMarch 13, 2011 at 6:25 PM

    Kospi/ES coming back nicely. I don't know. Still seems like nothing more than scalp territory.

    ReplyDelete
  22. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 6:31 PM

    $DJUBSHG - $437 is a support level for copper. If that fails, $400 would be the next level.

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  23. MarkWMarch 13, 2011 at 6:33 PM

    Thanks for the good news T3D...Remind me not to invite you to any parties!

    ReplyDelete
  24. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 7:31 PM

    'This has been a harrowing week for me. Through countless months of continuous 100+ hour weeks, I managed to accomplish a lot, but I finally, this week, hit the wall. It wasn’t pretty.

    The plain truth is that I am in need of a major change in my life – before I find myself no longer vertical. Accordingly, this will be my last WIR for at least a couple weeks, and possibly months. I mean it this time. I don’t need a doctor to explain it to me.

    Your Cara Community daily blog, however, will continue as long as important contributors like Patrick, kaimu and Vad want to carry on. I believe they are very much committed to it.'

    ReplyDelete
  25. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 7:34 PM

    To those of you still holding miners/metals:

    'I was an active trader this week in SLW, first selling much of my position on Monday morning at 46.30, and then buying it back Tuesday morning at ~43.24. I then forced the liquidation on Thursday morning.

    It is my belief that the capital risk to those who continue to hold is extreme right now. If you know the $USD is going to plunge here, fine; you can stay in. But all that negative European sovereign debt ratings/news/discussions is more than likely to lift the $USD. Also, the rallying Yen in the face of the crisis there is likely to pull the Dollar higher with it as the Dollar squares off against the Euro in retaining its money flow support as capital departs everywhere for Japan.

    These are dangerous times to be long on a short-term 1-3 month basis unless of course you can be sure a break-out to higher prices happens here and is sustainable, not just a head fake as most traders discovered last Monday morning in SLW (while I was selling).

    I intend to be a very active trader in SLW this year.'

    ReplyDelete
  26. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 7:40 PM

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hackers-to-release-bank-of-america-emails-report-2011-03-13

    LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- A group of computer hackers plan to release emails from Bank of America Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!bac/quotes/nls/bac (BAC 14.38, +0.12, +0.84%) which they say will expose "corruption and fraud," according to a Reuters report Sunday. The group, known as "Anonymous," intends to make the emails public early Monday, the report said, citing the group's Twitter feed.

    ReplyDelete
  27. 2nd_aveMarch 13, 2011 at 7:42 PM

    Kind of feels like 'get the ---- out' time. Not necessarily saying that's my advice.

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  28. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 7:52 PM

    Oh come on now, whatever happened to "$1500 this month!"

    Anyway, I hope something falls into my accumulation zone this week, but I won't be catching any knives, my adds will have to be attractively underpriced.

    Of those I own, CADC is closest to an adding level but still has a ways to go.

    Who knows, I may even buy some SLW if it gets hit hard enough.

    I think the damage from this quake may be larger than Kobe, but I don't remember that one too well b/c I was too busy at the time to take notice. I do know there are lots of people living in Kobe, probably many more than Sendai. Funny thing is, Sendai is where "undesirable" factory workers were sent to pay purgatory not that long ago, considered to be BFE.

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  29. MarkWMarch 13, 2011 at 8:11 PM

    I have to say, watching the news now and the futes, I can't believe they are holding up this well.

    ReplyDelete
  30. teamonfuegoMarch 13, 2011 at 8:33 PM

    mark - man hope you're feeling better. getting sick sucks.

    i am nervous and i'm 100% cash. my business has been somewhat steady, albeit at lower levels than just this past january. February was pretty slow for us. but it tends to be this time of year. we're still getting a decent amount of requests from small businesses...mainly yogurt shops.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Telestar3dMarch 13, 2011 at 8:57 PM

    Reactor #3 blowing up today was much more forceful than #1. This is troubling.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_N-wNFSGyQ

    #1 explosion for comparison.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/following-core-meltdown-reactor-one-fukushima-nuclear-power-plant-explodes-video

    ReplyDelete
  32. illiniMarch 13, 2011 at 9:07 PM

    Re BC: It's a bit startling but there were signs. Leaving Bahamas. Concerns about safety. Birth of first grandchild. Staying in Toronto during winter. I hope that it is not an up-tick of his skin cancer. Of course, he is a workaholic. Concentration on miners does not interest me beyond RBY, SLW and UXG

    ReplyDelete
  33. RoBearMarch 13, 2011 at 9:21 PM

    GLNG, I tried entering this on Friday at 18.25. But my broker froze on my computer. It went like a rocket all the way to 1950 then came back down to its current level 18.64. Don't know anything about it other than it has LNG in its name and it is constantly in my momentum screener. I will be watching closely.
    Bob

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  34. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 9:44 PM

    T3D - No problem with those reactors, hydrogen in those volumes and concentrations is easily set off.

    I just wonder where the seawater coolant is going and if it's taking radiation with it.

    The corrosive seawater of course means the reactor won't be good for anyone.

    Wrote a song about it, wanna hear, here ya go!:

    Don't leave your records in the sun, cause they'll warp and they won't be good for anyone.

    ReplyDelete
  35. RoBearMarch 13, 2011 at 9:45 PM

    Cree looks like a bounce trade. Need more volume. Risk reward decent. Buy stop 48.61, stop at 47.48 with a target around 53.

    ReplyDelete
  36. ChickenpookieMarch 13, 2011 at 9:49 PM

    GLNG - Oh, good ol' Golar! I was following that one a coupla years ago... Dang, it's done really well, I liked it for the div at the time, was like 20% or something...

    ReplyDelete
  37. RoBearMarch 13, 2011 at 11:20 PM

    We open Green tomorrow led by financials, yoga pants and dinner reservation sites.

    ReplyDelete
  38. RoBearMarch 13, 2011 at 11:22 PM

    Why? Because we are going to give the shorts a serious whooping.

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  39. cheapybobMarch 14, 2011 at 12:50 AM

    re BC, he's been burning the candle from both ends and taking lots of risks, and probably come to the conclusion he would make as much or more if he just invested, or traded for his own account, without all the other bs.

    We are all like rats trapped in a maze of endless confetti money. When to take it, when to not? What will the fed do, hyperinflate or cause a deleveraging? When will they attempt to remove the feeding tube and how bad with the correction or crash be when they do? Or do they already realize they caused the last crash that way and have learned not to do it again? If so, what options do they have left? And what happens if they even try to reduce POMO?

    Left, right, reverse, forward, up, down or stop?

    What it eight depends on what the Fed will try next to keep the paper money/bond Ponzi going, IMO.

    I say they keep printing till the dollar gets to support or the economy looks brighter...

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  40. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 5:49 AM

    Fukushima - Well, I hear the fuel rods have been or become fully exposed, which sounds like there's no cooling water (seawater).

    That sounds like a meltdown situation, not sure, but definitely not a good sign if they can't cool the rods and prevent thermal runaway damage.

    Kiss nuclear power goodby.

    ReplyDelete
  41. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 5:55 AM

    CCJ - Off -14% pre-market. Not gonna touch that one!

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  42. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 5:57 AM

    Non-Japanese batteries and semi chips today?

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  43. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 6:35 AM

    Long SPF at $3.73...starting what I hope will be a longer term position in this. I think home builders are pretty much at their bottoms...

    ReplyDelete
  44. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 6:39 AM

    PM's - Looks to me like they're up slightly, what happened to the big PM sell off?

    Gee, what a surprise. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  45. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 6:48 AM

    AKAM looks like it's bottoming out. Probably should give it another week or two but valuation and long term story are pretty good here. They do have a lot of competition though so probably not a ton of pricing power.

    ReplyDelete
  46. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 6:52 AM

    I'm getting the sensation my portfolio has bottomed out, I'm not willing to add here though.

    ReplyDelete
  47. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 7:11 AM

    LTBR - It's looking strong, as if it's gonna break out.

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  48. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 7:25 AM

    Twiggs- 'Correction Threat Grows'

    http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

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  49. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 7:32 AM

    DNN/URRE.

    ReplyDelete
  50. RoBearMarch 14, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    WHY the hell did the Market open an hour early today? I missed my CREE and Golar entries.

    ReplyDelete
  51. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 7:36 AM

    RAS. Seems like a over reaction to typical news?

    ReplyDelete
  52. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 7:38 AM

    It didn't RB. Your still asleep...

    ReplyDelete
  53. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 7:39 AM

    Hopefully both of you realize we switched to Daylight Savings Time yesterday ;)

    ReplyDelete
  54. RoBearMarch 14, 2011 at 7:49 AM

    We don't do that in Arizona. Now I'm on your time in Cali. Damn you guys get up early. I am going to have to take trading in my sleep lessons from David.

    ReplyDelete
  55. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 8:13 AM

    Angle of decent is increasing...

    ReplyDelete
  56. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 8:18 AM

    Daylight savings! Being trapped behind prison walls is an inadequate excuse no matter which rebel state.

    You missed LTBR.

    ReplyDelete
  57. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 8:20 AM

    SPX has broken 1290.

    ReplyDelete
  58. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 8:30 AM

    Guys - Keep in mind that HEK reports after the close.

    ReplyDelete
  59. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 8:30 AM

    And here's to a washout coming this week in the equity markets. I'd love to see 1,250.

    ReplyDelete
  60. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 8:34 AM

    At this point we have to at least see 11899.

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  61. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 8:36 AM

    At some point, 'distribution' transitions into 'panic.'

    ReplyDelete
  62. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 8:40 AM

    Amazing how quickly 3 higher highs and 3 lower lows can turn into 3 lower highs ans 3 lower lows...

    Later...

    ReplyDelete
  63. RoBearMarch 14, 2011 at 8:41 AM

    I think we close green. Look at the hang seng yesterday. Same playbook

    ReplyDelete
  64. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 8:43 AM

    I don't mind buying into panic. However, it will be difficult to predict when the panic-selling might end.

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  65. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 8:45 AM

    They're attempting to defend 1290.

    ReplyDelete
  66. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 8:54 AM

    I'd love to see a green close, or panic selling.

    This market needs to make a damned decision instead of dishing out this perpetual waterboarding torture.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Telestar3dMarch 14, 2011 at 9:05 AM

    Jesse's call

    UNL 1.00 32.46 - 32.56 3.16%
    GAZ 0.20 7.25 + 7.28 2.84%
    UNG 0.34 10.74 - 10.75 3.28%

    Jesse's girl

    took my loss on DNN

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYkbTyHXwbs

    ReplyDelete
  68. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    CHGI - Doesn't seem to be correlated to nuclear industry at this point (just sayin').

    ReplyDelete
  69. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 9:42 AM

    Wow, what a washout in uranium stocks today! That's why one should never place a GTC sell stop orders and use sell stop limit orders instead. With CCJ closing at $37.50 yesterday, a stop at $37.00 would have been triggered at $28.80 today -- not pretty... I am glad that I stopped myself out of CCJ at $40 a couple of weeks ago. But just now, I decided to buy some CCJ (500 shares at $31.81) and placed a sell stop limit at $31/$30.80. Its intraday chart is showing steady higher lows...

    ReplyDelete
  70. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 9:53 AM

    That was yet another higher low for CCJ, from $31.80 down to $31.60 and then back up to $31.80. So I decided to make CCJ my intraday trade, bought 500 more shares at $31.80 and placed a stop at $31.60 for all these shares.

    ReplyDelete
  71. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 10:13 AM

    NASA - Last month couldn't successfully launch a satellite rocket now we learn they don't enforce OSHA rules requiring use of safety harness PPE when working at height?

    "March 14, 2011
    Space shuttle worker falls to death at launch pad
    Man fell while working on space shuttle Endeavour; Medics unable to revive him"

    ReplyDelete
  72. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 10:16 AM

    As expected, the steady sequence of higher lows in CCJ, after a strong early afternoon pullback from $32 to $31, has just resulted in a thrust to a new intraday high past $32. So I decided to move my stop to my entry point at $32.80, so as to avoid having "a profit turn into a loss."

    ReplyDelete
  73. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    Actually, since it's my wife's birthday today and she wants me to take her out for lunch to a fancy French restaurant, I figured I will enjoy this outing twice more if it is going to be "on the house." So, in order to book at least a $200 profit on my CCJ intraday trade, I moved my stop up to $32.

    ReplyDelete
  74. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 10:21 AM

    PKX - Nice pop there.

    ReplyDelete
  75. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    Moving my stop up to the most recent low $32.30, so as to guarantee at least a $500 profit.

    ReplyDelete
  76. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 10:42 AM

    Shit intraday the market looks like it is ready to bounce actually.

    ReplyDelete
  77. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 10:43 AM

    My buys on Thursday for the bounce in BTU and F have held.

    ReplyDelete
  78. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    I'm watching HEK, NLS, DANG, SPF (which I bought a little today, but this is a very long term play I think), BAC, PIR, REDF, EBAY.

    BTW - Look at LNG rallying hard. Could be a great buy but I can't get myself to do it with that enormous debt load they have.

    ReplyDelete
  79. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 10:48 AM

    I think you might get your 1250 TOF.

    ReplyDelete
  80. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    That was a quick drop in CCJ. My stop at $32.30 was triggered at $32.25, for a $450 profit. Should have kept that stop at $32, so as to give more room to this winning trade. CCJ is at $32.45 already...

    ReplyDelete
  81. 2nd_aveMarch 14, 2011 at 10:59 AM

    Vad's Catch of the Day


    Where we are - follow-up.

    A few more words on the charts I posted recently. First, refresh them in memory: Current Battlefield and Zoom screenshots attached to this post. They show the area of suport that, if broken, indicates uptrend being broken. That area is 129.70 - 130 for SPY. Now have a look at the third chart, Warning Siren. This is mid-day screenshot taken just now, so it's not fully conclusive yet in temrs of the closing price and volume. But the warning siren better be sounding early if it's to warn.

    ReplyDelete
  82. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    I decided to move my stop on F to just below the most recent intraday low at $14.25.

    ReplyDelete
  83. KyleMarch 14, 2011 at 11:09 AM

    TM - Sold some Apr 75 puts - TM has production plants world-wide

    ReplyDelete
  84. KyleMarch 14, 2011 at 11:17 AM

    SHAW - Sold some Jul 22.5 puts - Plan to work up from there

    ReplyDelete
  85. DavidMarch 14, 2011 at 11:32 AM

    Just to give F a little more room to run, I decided to move my stop limit to $14.18/$14.15 and make it GTC. This is for 1K shares that I re-purchased on Friday at $14.42.

    ReplyDelete
  86. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 11:45 AM

    RAS- 300K ask at 2.86.

    ReplyDelete
  87. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    Kyle- Not to f you up, but I like the TM play.

    ReplyDelete
  88. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 11:56 AM

    The one thing that makes perfect sense to me is oil about to go green, and natty about to go red.

    ReplyDelete
  89. KyleMarch 14, 2011 at 12:00 PM

    Mark -- I'm sure you guys already know all this stuff, but if you have a chance go to

    http://www.trading-naked.com/Articles_and_Reprints.htm

    Ignore the yoga music if you will, and scroll down to Joe Ross Trading Manual Chap 21 'Baby Steps and Giant Steps'...

    ReplyDelete
  90. KyleMarch 14, 2011 at 12:06 PM

    Also, at the very bottom, under the 'More on Trading' section, the Dynamic Break Out II strategy compares with Elder's Entry and Exits Strategy in Chap 2...

    ReplyDelete
  91. KyleMarch 14, 2011 at 12:14 PM

    The most complicated chapter is 18 dealing with Pivot Point projection equations. I haven't yet put these in Matlab (or Octave which is what I use) to see how they work...

    http://www.trading-naked.com/library/JoeRossTrading%20Manual_C18_135-146.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  92. Telestar3dMarch 14, 2011 at 12:18 PM

    Joe Ross, some of the best books I have ever read on trading. t3d

    ReplyDelete
  93. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 12:22 PM

    I'm getting the same feeling I had back in November...I was worried that we were in the midst of breaking down. I sold the day before the gap up on 12/1. I wouldn't be shocked if we close today at 1,293 and people say the lows of a few weeks ago were breached and we're heading lower....that a bear flag has formed. Bulls bail and bears get confident.

    Then, we break higher...that's what I'm getting a sense of happening.

    Having said this I will wait for confirmation of either and looking to buy regardless of the break. Not sure prices are exactly where I want them to be but they're getting there.

    ReplyDelete
  94. KyleMarch 14, 2011 at 12:22 PM

    T3d -- Big Guy, Wish I had read them sooner...

    ReplyDelete
  95. RoBearMarch 14, 2011 at 12:44 PM

    short vxx

    ReplyDelete
  96. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    CCME- Ut-oh.

    ReplyDelete
  97. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 12:48 PM

    Was that a real 3M candle a few minutes ago in SPY?

    ReplyDelete
  98. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 12:50 PM

    TOF is probably right, but I'm not jumping in.

    ReplyDelete
  99. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 12:53 PM

    jeez look at BLTI...i'm searching high and low for the next one like this one.

    ReplyDelete
  100. RoBearMarch 14, 2011 at 12:55 PM

    Long SRCL

    ReplyDelete
  101. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 12:56 PM

    Looks like HEK just posted some ammended 10Q's.

    ReplyDelete
  102. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 1:01 PM

    SRCL? I though you didn't want any more kids?

    ReplyDelete
  103. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 1:03 PM

    HEK results out. EPS 0.0 Rev 14.3M. See's FY11 REV 150M.

    ReplyDelete
  104. teamonfuegoMarch 14, 2011 at 1:06 PM

    at first blush HEK report looks good...not sure what to make of this:
    http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110314/hek8-k.html

    ReplyDelete
  105. RoBearMarch 14, 2011 at 1:11 PM

    Why am I going to need another deduction to make up for my losses on SRCL

    ReplyDelete
  106. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 1:31 PM

    CAGC- Ut oh..

    ReplyDelete
  107. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 4:40 PM

    HEK CC... Sounded pretty good. No surprise there :).

    CAPX 100M 2011.

    I believe the China issue will be resolved in HEK's favor. They might sell it.

    2011 EBITDA 40M... I=0, T=20%, D=?, A=?

    This was talked about a lot in the call. T was given. They implied D and A was almost 0.

    So, worst case, what .25/share???

    After 2011 CAPX, they will still have 200M cash and no debit.

    ReplyDelete
  108. MarkWMarch 14, 2011 at 5:06 PM

    Had to jump on a call.

    So, that gives us a P/E of 24 for a growth? co., in a fast moving regulatory enviornment??

    I guess it's still a play on the jockey, but I'll take a shot on a good pull back.

    Warrants expire at EOY. If those babies go away???

    ReplyDelete
  109. ChickenpookieMarch 14, 2011 at 5:41 PM

    China stocks - Sounds like the sh%t is hitting the fan across the board, not gonna get their 10K's in by the 16th and CFO's/Audit firms are being fired or are resigning.

    SBAY is off 35% AH....

    ReplyDelete

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