Given the weakness in worldwide markets I thinnk im going to give the market time to balance iitself out...this goes against what I would normally do but I think its prudent...typically when the market is this weak we get a retest of the lows after a spike down...since I don't know if this is THE spike down im gonna wait...gl guys if ur buying...if I see irresistible sales I might join u.
TOF- I already canceled them. Most were -20%. Opening spike play only.
I'd be surprised if we don't test globex low. This 'sell off' isn't really very much....Easy to say in cash I suppose. Probably would have hit me for 10-15K I'm guessing.
closed my SPF at $3.58/$3.59...now completely out of the market and gonna sit on the sidelines. I'm wondering if this is setting up for a 1987 style correction. I know it's dumb to think this but there is too much risk out there in my opinion and I'd rather wait to see a retest of the lows...whatever they may be. Note that in 1987 the market came down and tested the 100 DMA twice, then bounced above the 50 DMA before finally plunging a full month later. Risk is just too high in the world for me right now to jump in.
every site related to investing that i have read is basically getting into these levels here. if the market doesn't bounce much these people will get stopped out and the market will close lower.
2nd - Great trades my friend. I knew money was there for the taking, but I'm looking for a complete washout on Japan news + Bahrain/Saudi news + Portugal/Spain news. I think this will come to a head in the next month or so and hopefully we will see a significant fear spike down that is buyable. At this point I think the odds of a bounce to about 1,285-1,294 is likely.
Re: Scaling In- CSCO 17.31 + GE 18.70/ OFF 17.40 + 19.32 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5324 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 11:50 #81628 (in reply to #81581)
After hopefully getting a bounce in REDF/RAS, I think it's pretty clear to me that SPF is right around support levels. The stock was in the red for only about an hour when the market was down big.
I think SPF will be a very good long term investment. I was actually looking at what we could expect from SPF in the upturn in housing, which will probably come toward the latter part of this decade, say 5 years from now. I think housing will ultimately bottom in the next 12 to 18 months nationwide as the impact of a rising population butts heads with underproduction for 4 years, going on 5 by this time next year. Anyway, I think we can expect to see SPF earn about $100-$150 Million in profits in the next upturn, which would equate to about $.90 to $1.50 EPS in the upturn. Assuming a PE of 10 on those earnings, then the stock will probably trade up to about $9 to $15 in the upturn. Assuming it takes 5 years from now to get there, that would be an annual rate of return of about 19 to 32%. Given that the market is offering up fewer and fewer opportunities as prices rise, I think this is one of the better long term opportunities out there. Supply/demand states that we should definitely see a bottom by 2012 in terms of new homes built. Population growth is forcing inventory to go down and it should meet demand levels in the next year. The key is sticking to the trade and not trying to trade my way to profits.
Let's review, folks: why is it that gold has doubled in 3 years, moving in a straight line? It's because the US had to start running large deficits in response to the economic crisis, and government deficits (rather than expansions of the monetary base) are the sure long-term causes of inflation and are the key drivers of gold/silver. The CBO has predicted trillion+ deficits for the US for years to come. Has that changed in any way with the recent events? No. If anything, it made the likelihood of such deficits even larger (higher oil prices imply less consuming power for the people, which implies less tax revenue for the US government, which implies even larger deficits).
With this in mind, a unique opportunity is opening up in front of our eyes right now to buy some gold/silver miners at dirt cheap prices.
Last night, I placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $0.9 and the order was triggered this morning at $0.86. This puts me even deeper into margin, not counting all the short puts I sold, which are all under water now and will most likely be assigned to me. Thus, it is time for me to start selling some of my other positions so as to raise more money for the PM miners. At the end of the day, I will let go my GTY and CSCO, which will certainly not double over the next year, and will prepare that money for gradual deployment into ECUXF on further weakness, since ECUXF will almost certainly double within a year from the current levels.
Every crisis is an opportunity, and a "lateral move" is usually required to take advantage of extreme opportunities (that's what 2nd_ave taught us in 2008/2009, and that lesson is finally coming in handy now).
TOF- You have level 11 quotes, right? There's a hudge NYS ask that keeps chasing the bid down. You normally don't see that. Something's up here and I'm watching, trying to figure it out. Might be a simple as yesterdays convertible note offering.
mark > yeah i have access to those. didn't both to look...just looked at the drop from $3.8 to $2.6 and figured fear was fully in effect. i like the stock up to about $3.5-$4, at which point it seems fully priced.
there's been huge sell orders going through yet the price hasn't budged below $2.5...prob just jynxed myself.
Re: Scaling In- INTC 20.20/ OFF 20.20 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5325 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:08 #81642 (in reply to #81581) That's the last of it. A +0.5% gain for the total port- good enough.
Look at the F*ing F go! I forgot to mention that I got stopped out this morning at $14.15 from the 1K shares I purchased at $14.42. The absolute loss is not much, but the mental pain of being stopped out, AGAIN, just to see it rally is accumulating...
FCX - Looks like someone with deep pockets created their very own opportunity then used their new found gains to take the price to more realistic values?
And just as I had begun to suspect future steel demand would only come from a parallel universe somewhere...
I see lots of megaphone patterns these days, should that be a reason to feel uncomfortable?
Sometimes I wonder if the human mind can comprehend the movement of stocks and the market.
The strangest stock I have today is UPL, it opens slightly down and than reverses and strengthens moving up almost 5% only to give it all back. More power to ya if you can make sense of it.
CCJ - If I didn't know better, I'd say that chart action looks bullish. Gap down and buying all day long... Maybe I just don't know what I'm looking at.
Re: Support Line newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5326 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:38 #81650 (in reply to #81648) jack- I agree. We're still headed down, not up, IMO.
Trying to find out what conversion price these jacka$$es at RAS put for the convertible note but there's no info on it. I suspect the bond holders just shorted the ballz out of the stock to hedge against their position. That's what we saw today.
Wonderful...I'm pretty disappointed with myself today. Was going to load up on PIR and HEK, but decided to wait and go with the ones that hadn't bounced yet. Big mistake. Lost about $8k on RAS so far.
I shouldn't say I was going to load up on them....just that I was considering it. I figured the market wouldn't bounce much but when it hit 128 SPY i thought the bounce would come to fruition. Not really looking for much more than a few days of a hold.
I feel your pain, TOF. My portfolio is self-destructing in front of my eyes, with the nose dive in ECU. However, having lived through 2008, I now that traders can be totally irrational toward junior explorers during market pullbacks, and maybe the same thing is happening with RAS now. So if you believe the stories you were telling us about the inevitable bounce in commercial real estate, then maybe you should just keep scaling into RAS and keep thanking the market for the amazing opportunity you are getting now to buy it cheap? As Buffett liked to say: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." That's what I keep repeating to myself lately with ECU. :)
Flyer on CCJ @ 28.38 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5321 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 07:59 #81586
ReplyDeleteI pray for Tokyo and the people there, and the wind doesn't blow any fallout onshore.
ReplyDeleteSink bombs deployed for RAS/HEK/MDW/GMO/SPF.
ReplyDeleteI highly doubt anyone will step in them.
Given the weakness in worldwide markets I thinnk im going to give the market time to balance iitself out...this goes against what I would normally do but I think its prudent...typically when the market is this weak we get a retest of the lows after a spike down...since I don't know if this is THE spike down im gonna wait...gl guys if ur buying...if I see irresistible sales I might join u.
ReplyDeleteNYSE to impose 'rule 48' to insure a smooth open.
ReplyDeleteWTF is that?? Did they see my stink bombs?
TOF- If my bids get hit, you'll add to your positions, believe me :)
ReplyDeleteThrowing ECUXF into the pot.
ReplyDeleteMark > watcha got for bids?
ReplyDeleteRe: Flyer on CCJ @ 28.38/ OFF 30.39 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5322 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 09:45 #81611 (in reply to #81586)
ReplyDeleteTOF- I already canceled them. Most were -20%. Opening spike play only.
ReplyDeleteI'd be surprised if we don't test globex low. This 'sell off' isn't really very much....Easy to say in cash I suppose. Probably would have hit me for 10-15K I'm guessing.
2nd- Nice play on CCJ.
ReplyDeleteclosed my SPF at $3.58/$3.59...now completely out of the market and gonna sit on the sidelines. I'm wondering if this is setting up for a 1987 style correction. I know it's dumb to think this but there is too much risk out there in my opinion and I'd rather wait to see a retest of the lows...whatever they may be. Note that in 1987 the market came down and tested the 100 DMA twice, then bounced above the 50 DMA before finally plunging a full month later. Risk is just too high in the world for me right now to jump in.
ReplyDeleteI learned a valuable trading lesson yesterday. Don't short the VXX during a nuclear disaster. Guys put that in your trading rules :).
ReplyDeleteGMO - Placed a stink bid @ $3.01, otherwise prices need to either 1) Stop falling, or 2) Come back to my basis price before I do any adding.
ReplyDeleteThis market isn't gonna be juiced for upside while waiting for nuclear storm clouds to render half of Honshu uninhabitable.
Trivia note: Kyoto, the ancient capitol of Japan, is Tokyo spelled backwards.
Posted on my screen RB. That's a keeper :)
ReplyDeleteRAS - Sheesh! Headed for $2.25?
ReplyDeletegreat point RB....
ReplyDeleteevery site related to investing that i have read is basically getting into these levels here. if the market doesn't bounce much these people will get stopped out and the market will close lower.
CCME - Holding up really well...
ReplyDeleteWow...SPF flat.
ReplyDeletehomebuilders across the board are strong.
ReplyDeleteALU would have been the play today.
ReplyDeletePIR green.
ReplyDeleteF about to go green...bounce is quite strong here...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/Bahrain-Declares-State-of-Emergency-in-Response-to-Protests-118000754.html
ReplyDeleteThis is another reason why I'm saying it's too risky right now..
Oil prices - You don't suppose Ben swung a deal with GS to take oil down a few notches, do you?
ReplyDeleteCopper is really off though, that's probably not good?
ReplyDeleteProbably wrong, but I'm still not buying this.
ReplyDeleteFWIW...TK covered his shorts (50%) near the open and is now 100% long.
BC is trying to find his shorts...Hint: They are on the lampshade.
L8er gators...
ReplyDeleteRe: Scaling In- EWJ 9.31/ OFF 9.85 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5323 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 11:14 #81625 (in reply to #81585)
ReplyDeleteCopper dipped to $438.10, now back to $444. Hasn't tested $437 support yet as far as I can tell.
ReplyDelete2nd - Great trades my friend. I knew money was there for the taking, but I'm looking for a complete washout on Japan news + Bahrain/Saudi news + Portugal/Spain news. I think this will come to a head in the next month or so and hopefully we will see a significant fear spike down that is buyable. At this point I think the odds of a bounce to about 1,285-1,294 is likely.
ReplyDeleteRe: Scaling In- CSCO 17.31 + GE 18.70/ OFF 17.40 + 19.32 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5324 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 11:50 #81628 (in reply to #81581)
ReplyDeleteOk I'll admit it..I completely lost sight of REDF...I decided to buy an opener at $5.41.
ReplyDeletePissed I didn't go after PIR today when I saw it in the mid 8's...oh well.
ReplyDeleteHaving said this, RAS sure looks appealing to me now after a 30% drop. As such, I decided to start a position in the stock at $2.66.
After hopefully getting a bounce in REDF/RAS, I think it's pretty clear to me that SPF is right around support levels. The stock was in the red for only about an hour when the market was down big.
ReplyDeleteI think SPF will be a very good long term investment. I was actually looking at what we could expect from SPF in the upturn in housing, which will probably come toward the latter part of this decade, say 5 years from now. I think housing will ultimately bottom in the next 12 to 18 months nationwide as the impact of a rising population butts heads with underproduction for 4 years, going on 5 by this time next year. Anyway, I think we can expect to see SPF earn about $100-$150 Million in profits in the next upturn, which would equate to about $.90 to $1.50 EPS in the upturn. Assuming a PE of 10 on those earnings, then the stock will probably trade up to about $9 to $15 in the upturn. Assuming it takes 5 years from now to get there, that would be an annual rate of return of about 19 to 32%. Given that the market is offering up fewer and fewer opportunities as prices rise, I think this is one of the better long term opportunities out there. Supply/demand states that we should definitely see a bottom by 2012 in terms of new homes built. Population growth is forcing inventory to go down and it should meet demand levels in the next year. The key is sticking to the trade and not trying to trade my way to profits.
VE - Bounced off the 200SMA, I think that might've been the entry buy.
ReplyDeleteLet's review, folks: why is it that gold has doubled in 3 years, moving in a straight line? It's because the US had to start running large deficits in response to the economic crisis, and government deficits (rather than expansions of the monetary base) are the sure long-term causes of inflation and are the key drivers of gold/silver. The CBO has predicted trillion+ deficits for the US for years to come. Has that changed in any way with the recent events? No. If anything, it made the likelihood of such deficits even larger (higher oil prices imply less consuming power for the people, which implies less tax revenue for the US government, which implies even larger deficits).
ReplyDeleteWith this in mind, a unique opportunity is opening up in front of our eyes right now to buy some gold/silver miners at dirt cheap prices.
Last night, I placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $0.9 and the order was triggered this morning at $0.86. This puts me even deeper into margin, not counting all the short puts I sold, which are all under water now and will most likely be assigned to me. Thus, it is time for me to start selling some of my other positions so as to raise more money for the PM miners. At the end of the day, I will let go my GTY and CSCO, which will certainly not double over the next year, and will prepare that money for gradual deployment into ECUXF on further weakness, since ECUXF will almost certainly double within a year from the current levels.
Every crisis is an opportunity, and a "lateral move" is usually required to take advantage of extreme opportunities (that's what 2nd_ave taught us in 2008/2009, and that lesson is finally coming in handy now).
"We can learn from Japan's disaster"
ReplyDeleteFrom which hole do these geniuses crawl and when will they actually have something profound to say?
So if the Nikkie closes flat tonight, EWJ will have to open -10% tomorrow, right?
ReplyDeleteCrazy.
Buy limit for RAS at $2.51.
ReplyDeleteAdded some RAS at $2.54...too impatient to wait for another $.03. Stock is now dow 33% from highs one month ago.
ReplyDeleteAdded more RAS at $2.51.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You have level 11 quotes, right? There's a hudge NYS ask that keeps chasing the bid down. You normally don't see that. Something's up here and I'm watching, trying to figure it out. Might be a simple as yesterdays convertible note offering.
ReplyDelete"Whichever Way The Wind Blows" - Is this market providing insight representative of which way the wind is blowing in Sendai...?
ReplyDeleteI thought they were forecasting inland winds? Maybe the forecast changed at dusk in Japan?
Mark, how do we get access to level 11 quotes?
ReplyDeletemark > yeah i have access to those. didn't both to look...just looked at the drop from $3.8 to $2.6 and figured fear was fully in effect. i like the stock up to about $3.5-$4, at which point it seems fully priced.
ReplyDeletethere's been huge sell orders going through yet the price hasn't budged below $2.5...prob just jynxed myself.
Re: Scaling In- INTC 20.20/ OFF 20.20 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5325 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:08 #81642 (in reply to #81581)
ReplyDeleteThat's the last of it. A +0.5% gain for the total port- good enough.
What the f*ck. RAS is just tanking. Figures I dip buy on the only stock on my board that not only doesn't go up but crases. Gotta love this.
ReplyDeleteLook at FCX. Wwe are in a correction right?
ReplyDeleteJust sold 1000 shares of GTY at $22.68 that I picked up a couple of weeks ago at around $21.70, so as to raise more cash for buying miners now.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe 2/3 of my positions are actually green, it feels like a bull trap.
ReplyDeleteRAS has officially sh*t the bed. So what do I do? I added more at $2.44. Avg is now $2.52.
ReplyDeleteLook at the F*ing F go! I forgot to mention that I got stopped out this morning at $14.15 from the 1K shares I purchased at $14.42. The absolute loss is not much, but the mental pain of being stopped out, AGAIN, just to see it rally is accumulating...
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'll jump in at 2.36 if you'll hold my hand :)
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteForget about your a G-D Dam fighter pilot, ah trader, move on to the next.
Sold 500 more shares of GTY at $22.68 that I picked up at $21.90 and redeployed that money by buying 1000 shares of RBY at $4.28.
ReplyDeleteFCX - Looks like someone with deep pockets created their very own opportunity then used their new found gains to take the price to more realistic values?
ReplyDeleteAnd just as I had begun to suspect future steel demand would only come from a parallel universe somewhere...
I see lots of megaphone patterns these days, should that be a reason to feel uncomfortable?
Wow...talk about being wrong. I officially hate RAS
ReplyDeleteSometimes I wonder if the human mind can comprehend the movement of stocks and the market.
ReplyDeleteThe strangest stock I have today is UPL, it opens slightly down and than reverses and strengthens moving up almost 5% only to give it all back. More power to ya if you can make sense of it.
If it was easy we would all be rich.
What's a megaphone pattern, have any chart examples?
ReplyDeleteGLNG - Three nice consecutive days there.
ReplyDeleteT3D - I'd guess you'd probably call it a broadening wedge. GLD shows this pattern.
ReplyDeleteAmmended Trading rule. SHort the VXX the second day after a nuclear meltdown and go long copper for a 10% inner day spread in both.
ReplyDeleteUPL - My amateurish guess is someone threw in the towel and took their gains?
ReplyDeleteI base that on a feeling we have yet to discover what happens when a radioactive plume begins blowing into downtown Tokyo.
CCJ - If I didn't know better, I'd say that chart action looks bullish. Gap down and buying all day long... Maybe I just don't know what I'm looking at.
ReplyDeleteRe: Support Line newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5326 comments) on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:38 #81650 (in reply to #81648)
ReplyDeletejack- I agree. We're still headed down, not up, IMO.
Trying to find out what conversion price these jacka$$es at RAS put for the convertible note but there's no info on it. I suspect the bond holders just shorted the ballz out of the stock to hedge against their position. That's what we saw today.
ReplyDeleteWonderful...I'm pretty disappointed with myself today. Was going to load up on PIR and HEK, but decided to wait and go with the ones that hadn't bounced yet. Big mistake. Lost about $8k on RAS so far.
I shouldn't say I was going to load up on them....just that I was considering it. I figured the market wouldn't bounce much but when it hit 128 SPY i thought the bounce would come to fruition. Not really looking for much more than a few days of a hold.
ReplyDeleteI feel your pain, TOF. My portfolio is self-destructing in front of my eyes, with the nose dive in ECU. However, having lived through 2008, I now that traders can be totally irrational toward junior explorers during market pullbacks, and maybe the same thing is happening with RAS now. So if you believe the stories you were telling us about the inevitable bounce in commercial real estate, then maybe you should just keep scaling into RAS and keep thanking the market for the amazing opportunity you are getting now to buy it cheap? As Buffett liked to say: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." That's what I keep repeating to myself lately with ECU. :)
ReplyDeleteCADC's new audit accountant announces their Beijing office opening 3/11/11:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.accountingtoday.com/news/Friedman-LLP-Opens-Beijing-Office-57597-1.html