Thursday, March 17, 2011
3/17/11 One Step Up
Re: Taking off BRKB OAKBX AND CWGIX/ One Step Up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5337 comments) on Thu, 03/17/2011 - 19:47 #81849 (in reply to #81845)
http://tinyurl.com/4tvchmp
Pz- Nothing wrong with an easy +1%. You undoubtedly made the right move- we're likely not finished with the downside. If the dance pattern is one step up/two steps back, I'm not convinced we've completed the step up. We'll see.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Nikkei back above 9000.
ReplyDeleteMake that well above 9000.
ReplyDeleteFTK
ReplyDeleteHow many shares do you own?
ReplyDeleteIs it possible that yesterday was the best/last buying opportunity before we head higher? Did J6P check into a hotel Wednesday night, only to refuse to chase the train this morning? Will he be stuck on the ground Friday, cold and drunk as he can be, watching that 707 wing its way to 1400?
ReplyDeleteNikkei +3%. OK, it's partly/mostly due to G7 currency intervention. So what?
ReplyDeleteNone. I think what we are seeing now is a reaction to the no fly zone.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, and the currency intervention also. Either way, your right. Who cares :)
ReplyDeleteIt's only fair. How many times have after-hours interventions caught us leaning the wrong way?
ReplyDelete200+ point gap up in the DJIA Friday. That has to be max pain for Opex.
ReplyDeleteDJIA 12k not out of the question tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteDamn- now I sound too freaking bullish.
ReplyDelete2nd I don't rule that out man...I've heard so much crap from bears saying the rally is over...that makes me more bullish. We were down 7.5 pct top to bottom on the ES. That's a big pullback in any given bull market. Of course I reserve the right to bail tomorrow if we don't go higher...
ReplyDeleteYum, I can smell bear-claw soup for lunch:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bigwildlife.org/images/207082.jpg
"If left unchecked, an expanding bear trade will undoubtedly hit bear populations hard, increasing the risk of extirpation of populations and even extinction of some bear species." ;)
ReplyDeleteMeasured moves back in Aug/Sep are almost exactly the same as this recent one. Approx 100pts. Care to guess SPX if the resulting measured move is the same?
ReplyDeleteMark could u be more cryptic...id like to think im smart but I can't freaking read minds
ReplyDeleteTOF- Sure. Measured moves are based on recent pull backs of similar size and their resulting moves.
ReplyDeleteIn Aug/Sep. we went from 1128 to 1037 before a correction. (100pts.) From there the next measured move before a correction was to 1226. (189pts.)
This recent pull back was from 1344 to 1247. Using the previous measured move that would result in a next leg for SPX of 1438.
Seriously though, you get all of this and more at my paid site. Save you a lot of time and $'s if you'd just sign up.
Damn, I thought I was signed up! ;)
ReplyDeleteSTZYF.PK ???
ReplyDeleteOil is up to $103.25, hopefully it tanks tonight...
ReplyDeleteReversing The CSCO Skid newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5338 comments) on Fri, 03/18/2011 - 09:05 #81861
ReplyDeleteThe Accumulation Zone- Buying hope abandoned. (Nice entry, Dr. S)...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cisco-oks-first-dividend-in-its-history-2011-03-18
ReplyDeleteCSCO +1.5%!!!!!!
ReplyDeletehowdy boys. haven't been able to log on for awhile, hope you've all been making tons of $$$.
ReplyDeletesold 1/2 of my position in TRE yesterday, had way too many shares for a spec play like that and I dumped AEE, no courage to own nukes. bought some FFNOX
CCJ- Opened premarket @ 28.78, closed @ 29.27.
ReplyDeleteA little more on the LNG terminal in western Canada...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/encana-joins-west-coast-gas-export-project/article1947109/
Long LVS at $37.19. If oil comes off then anything hurt by oil comes back. Plus, LVS is right at it's 200 DMA. There's maybe 5% downside risk and I think about 40% upside. I'll take that.
ReplyDeleteCareful. Take a look at AAPL/AKAM.
ReplyDeleteyo bro, how is the house going?
ReplyDeleteI'll eat my seagrass hat if oil moves to $120
ReplyDeleteJB- Hey buddy. I was just about to shoot you an email before you surfaced. Going 'well'. Clients are crazy, but nice. Should be out of there end of June. Otherwise it's pretty quite. Mostly driving the girls around to their soccer stuff. Just finished tryouts for 2011. Hailey (6) made the U9 team. (Girls under 9 years old.) We weren't going to let her do it, but she had no problem keeping up and frankly, is probably one of the better players.
ReplyDeleteThere were some pissed off parents of girls who are 8 that didn't make it. Oh well. That's there problem.
You still collecting a check somehow?
Nuculer - Soon may be time to buy into CCJ, etc., considering the US has almost completely handed the keys over to Asia.
ReplyDeleteSold my CAT this morning at $105.2. Sold my DECK at the open for a $1 gain from after hours. I'm really liking LVS right here. Tech stocks are taking it on the chin but I think this is a sector rotation thing going on.
ReplyDeleteWow, you are always so freakin' busy! Do you have another house in the hopper or are you going to take the summer off?? Congrats to Hailey, that is amazing to make U9 at age 6!
ReplyDeleteya, still on the payroll, they have cut so many other folks I now have 5 bosses and zero employees, those 5 gents are in for a rude awakening...
The calvery arrives in time to bury the dead but what I want to know is, will Ghadduffi step down?
ReplyDeleteFlem at 11:00
NKE is a buy @ $74.
ReplyDeleteNothing in stone yet, but have a few things in the hopper.
ReplyDeleteCP- 'Flem @ 11:00'. Damn, it that am or pm? Don't want to miss that ;)
BCOND - Mark, this POS must be approaching your accumulation zone by now...?!?!?
ReplyDeleteAKAM/CRM/AAPL/CMG/CREE/LULU...How the hell is the nasdaq green?
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, I'm watching it. Nothing going to move me out of cash on a friday though.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Stink bid @ $3.90, hopefully if I buy enough it won't fall more. I see it hit my bid price now, bet it filled...
ReplyDeleteGuess I'd better enter another bid...
Big cap tech is higher and some of the nasdaq banks are higher too.....but it looks like orcl is losing juice fast, going to be a rocky day I'd guess
ReplyDeletedid you guys see the bit in seeking alpha about RAS? anyone still long?
ReplyDeleteCADC - Damn, my bid hasn't filled yet. Somebody took cuts in line...
ReplyDeleteRBY - I don't know what to say about this one, kinda strange management is hanging shareholders out to dry... As if they're waiting for a check somewhere to clear or something.
JB - RAS - No, but if there were something positive to it I expect you'd take the liberty of highlighting a main point or two while your fingers are pecking at the keyboard... ;)
ReplyDeleteHey CP - just saw that little piece in seeking alpha, it was listed as a "coiled spring", and I thought some folks here traded it.
ReplyDeleteI'm still just trolling along for hi-tech takeovers, did you see that lwsn is getting picked up, and putting more $$$ into some index funds
It's just incredible how S&P zoomed this year while my stinky sh*t sinks. I need to pounce on these buoyant floaters but most of em' look like crap to me...
ReplyDeleteOk, thanks for making yourself useful. For some inexplicable reason I don't pick up on all the news of every single stock like you guys do.
ReplyDeletebetter time mgt CP, better time mgt...ok, off to the salt mine, good luck today
ReplyDeleteGMO - Boy someone really loves to trade GMO up and down the scale.
ReplyDeleteAt the close boyz.
ReplyDeleteHate to say it (from the vantage point of shorts), but I think we close at the highs of the day.
ReplyDeleteCNAM - Hate to say it but she's flyin'
ReplyDeleteGuys LVS sure looks like a false breakdown to me. Oversold and just below the 200 DMA. I think it bounces higher. Valuation is actually reasonable at 20 times earnings.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wimp.com/toogood/
ReplyDeleteENER - interesting reversal
ReplyDeleteENER- I MS analyst released a report a few days ago with a $1 price target.
ReplyDeleteThat should read 'One MS analyst'.
ReplyDeleteWhile all my junior miners (ECU, RBY, AZM, NOT) did not participate in yesterday's rally, they are catching up strongly today. ECUXF hit my sell limit at $1.00 for the 5000 shares I was able to buy (using an overnight limit order that got hit on a panic) at $0.86. My next sell limit is at $1.10 for the 5000 shares I purchased at $1.00.
ReplyDeleteMy large position in WATG (another of my risky investments) is not doing well today. I just picked up 500 more shares at $5.95 reloading the shares I sold at $6.90 when the mean hedge fund traders spiked WATG to $7 without reason a few weeks ago.
Here is what some dude on SeekingAlpha wrote about WATG: "WATG is hitting 52 week lows. Looks like a potential bargain at a P/E ex-cash of 4.6x, but how can anyone be sure the underlying figures are accurate? I am staying away from Chinese firms until I have reason to be confident in the reported figures."
WATG has already hired PwC, and once their accounting is straightened out, I think WATG will be a few dollars higher.
Close at 1,293 S&P with a gap higher on Monday? That would be a doozy for dem bears.
ReplyDeleteWATG - No doubt. I damn sure wouldn't be a seller here, that's just plain stupid! What the hell are these people thinking, do they really know something we don't? If so, please enlighten me, cause I must be a complete ignoramus!
ReplyDeleteLong BEN 116.65
ReplyDeleteAs I was saying a few days ago, the recent problems in Japan and Middle East only increase the need for more money to be printed by the world governments. Today, $USD broke through its support at 76. The recent market scare was the last opportunity to pick up junior miners at dirt cheap prices. As Buffett liked to say, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." Strangely enough, when the people could buy cheap the *value* of gold & silver resources in the ground owned by ECU, RBY, GMO, etc., they were *selling* these companies instead of buying...
ReplyDeleteRemind me again why I don't just wait until 1:45 to 2:15 to do my buying and to do my selling at the open?
ReplyDeleteI'll remind you next time.
ReplyDeleteLower highs all day in SPY...I'd be very surprised if we can rally much from here.
ReplyDeleteBAC about to go red.
ReplyDeleteRBY, per the "FOOLF"
ReplyDeleteShort-sellers scored a minor victory when shares of Rubicon Minerals plummeted after it said it would be filing an amended report concerning inferred resources at its Phoenix gold project. The original report had suggested somewhere around 4 million ounces of gold could be inferred at the site, a godly amount considering the rich veins Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) has discovered there.
Here we are, nearly a month since the prospect of a revision was made public, and Rubicon's share price is down another 18%. While the uncertainty is likely weighing on the share price, the company remains confident the restatement will be more technical in nature than substantive. When you compare Rubicon's polygonal resource calculation to the block model calculation -- two modeling methodologies used to calculate the inferred resources available -- it's easy to come away with the notion that any revision downward will be limited.
While it's possible a downgrade would cause its stock to slide further, considering the greater potential for rich rewards out of Phoenix will outweigh those concerns, weakness should be thought of as a buying opportunity. Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM ) may have Canada's largest gold mine, but Rubicon could have the largest upside potential.
per the FOOLS, as in Motley
ReplyDeleteCSCO gets no love at all, along with many others including MSFT.
ReplyDelete"no love at all"....even when the yield from the new dividend will be 1.4% at p = $17.11.
ReplyDeleteThats much more than on MSFT when they started a div a few years ago.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it everytime I open Internet Explorer it always attempts to take me through the tutorial and doesn't offer a button to disable the feature?
ReplyDeleteStooooopppppiiiidddd frickin' Microsoft!
Damn. GMO has a 1.4M sell imbalance now. Not sure I've ever seen an imbalance that high compared to the daily average. It will be interesting to see how those shares are handled.
ReplyDeleteClosing OAKBX/ Opening GE+WFC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5340 comments) on Fri, 03/18/2011 - 15:50 #81915
ReplyDeletePz- I'm not expecting much more of a gain on OAKBX closing today rather than yesterday.
Still bullish on selected stocks- opening GE/WFC @ 19.26/31.75. Still holding starter positions in CSCO/INTC.
Not exactly Smash Friday. Unless referring to bar-hopping after work.
T3D - B/C I've already read it, that MF article is kinda old, (and obvious). The amazing part is I thought I had bought RBY pretty low but as these things go, it kept moving lower as op-ex approached.
ReplyDeleteNot that I have any mechanism to determine the real reasons the price kept falling. For all I know, gold will inexplicably move to $300 tonight promptly after close.
Well, there it is. The MM must have found a buyer of GMO @ 5.26. (3.1M share block.)
ReplyDeleteLOL, I made a whole $6 daytrading 200 shares of a partial fill on CADC today!
ReplyDeleteI simply couldn't bear having that additional $800 of shares sitting there all weekend, reducing my basis by ~1/10^6 ... ;)
GMO - I'm not sure, but someone might be pumping rare earths again today. That usually gives GMO a quick lift. You would think someone buying 3.1M shares would know what he's buying but anything's possible in this day and age so don't rule it out!
ReplyDeleteThese are the damndest times...
STZYF.PK +16%
ReplyDeletewow. I was way off on my call. So much so that I sold my SPY index fund at the close and am thinking things are not nearly as bullish as I was thinking. All across the board I'm seeing way much more selling than buying. Leaders have no bounce in them. I kinda think we should be avoiding leaders or consider shorting them and finding the new sectors to remain long in until the bear claws are in full force.
ReplyDeleteLook at the prior leaders: CRM, FFIV, GOOG, LVS, F, PIR, POT, MOS, FCX, AMZN...there just ain't much bounce in any of them.
PAL - Closed down and at the bottom of it's range just to prove the market really is schizoid.
ReplyDeleteCP, yea the article was 14 mar 11, did not see it till today.
ReplyDeleteIt is quite possible we have had a trend change this week. This is not a time to play hero from a risk mgt perspective in my view, but to each his own.
Actually the move in the market from say 10 AUG to 18 FEB is not ordinary. The last month is more of a normal market and thus tougher to navigate.
"It is quite possible we have had a trend change this week."
ReplyDeleteAnything's possible, personally I don't see where anything really changed but weak action has been evident in base metal miners for months and seems to be persistent.
I'll feel more comfortable if FCX can recapture the 50SMA.
Oh, now I see China tightened once again. I'm always the last to know...
ReplyDeleteOh, and India tightened yesterday as well.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete