Tuesday scores as a major bummer. The indices tried to rally but they reversed and then sold off hard. This action has them stalling short of their prior highs.
As I said in my trading service last night, it's not the end of the world. One big up day would make a huge difference. However it is important for the recent lows to hold. This area also corresponds with the 50-day moving average.
The above isn't a bull market/bear market "line in the sand." It's simply an inflection point where I would likely pull in my horns a bit and possibly fire off a short or two.
One day at a time.
Obviously, wait for entries on new positions and honor your stops on new ones just in case.
Training Day newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5289 comments) on Wed, 03/02/2011 - 09:25 #80689 http://tinyurl.com/4udgghk
I think an early morning push higher succeeds in drawing more bulls to the table. Then we wait to see which side of the table walks the talk. If they place a gun against my head, I say we sell off by EOD.
Base metals remain pretty strong too, I'm getting the message economic growth remains in the forcast.
Wouldn't you anticipate natural resourcess, including oil, to rocket at the potential rate of growth that seems to be on the horizon? I mean, it seems to be monumental in scale.
I still think cash is the wrong place to be, just about anything will beat it. I still keep some cash though, just in case we experience a panic.
PMI - As bankrupt as they seem to/must be, was a buy yesterday.
SP 50 dma, optimized(to be different from the crowd),I have at 1293.50. If we take out 1294.26, would confirm st downtrend or would it be the computers screwing the humans again?
However, I am not sure that we are dealing here with just traders' emotions. Oil might really be an exogenous component here, and since oil rallied hard during the past hour, it is only natural for the stocks to sell off. The bullish fact is that they sold off only back to the opening level, while USO is up 2% now.
Am I missing Something??? new Submitted by teamonfuego (2361 comments) on Wed, 03/02/2011 - 12:29 #80726
Why the hell are we not instituting a nationwide stimulus plan focused on implementing nat gas stations and making sure cars can ingest nat gas? Why!?!?!
Not only would that make this whole mideast unrest a moot point to us economically, but it would also give a major boost to our economy and to the jobs situation.
I am really surprised that the market gods (mean hedge fund traders) could not push CCJ low enough this morning to hit my sell stop at $39.80 -- the morning spike down in CCJ ended at $39.82!
They also completely surprised me with WATG, letting it drop hard to $6 after rallying to $7 on Friday. Or maybe it was the "crowd" that was buying WATG on Friday? In any case, on Friday I sold 1000 shares at $6.90 and right now I reloaded 500 of them at $6.12. I have also just placed a sell short limit order for 20 April $5 WATG puts at $0.40 -- the probability of WATG dropping below $5 by April is 0.01, IMO.
TOF - "Why the hell are we not instituting a nationwide stimulus plan focused on implementing nat gas stations and making sure cars can ingest nat gas? Why!?!?!"
Is there really enough of it to justify the infrastructure expense? Is that really the best use? Are the current mechanisms of exploration causing irreversible environmental damage?
Seems like only insiders know these details, but I hope they discover a way to develop these wells that doesn't entail disposal of highly toxic tailings into public waterways and contamination of groundwater.
From what I can tell, it kinda seems like burning the furniture to keep the house warm.
Finally, last but not least, ECUXF money pump hit my sell limit at $1.20 for 5600 shares I purchased during the January sell-off at $1.08, booking a profit of $670. In order to "wash, rinse, and repeat" I placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $1.15 and then lowered my next buy limit to $1.10, to have nice 5c intervals between the orders. I also still have a sell limit at $1.25 for 6000 shares.
Oil is a big impact on the market -- it just sold off by 0.5% and the stock indices immediately rallied. Or could it be that the traders are just viewing oil as safe haven now, and they sell stocks only for the purpose of buying oil and vice versa? What do you folks think?
David - I suspect the market is simply trying to digest higher oil prices. This is a fact we ll have to get used to, but right now the news is reporting Ghaduffi has/is attacking West Lybia.
I figured that I should take profits quickly with WATG, while Chinese small caps (HAO) are still making lower highs and lower lows. So I just placed a sell limit order at $6.52 for the 500 shares I picked up earlier today at $6.12. A $200 profit will be good enough for me.
Just picked up 100 more shares of CCJ at $40.10, since CCJ is so closing to hitting my stop at $39.80 that a potential loss on these extra 100 shares is insignificant. On the other hand, if CCJ does not hit my stop today and instead makes a nice reversal, then the gain on these 100 shares will be nice.
The traders are acting totally silly regarding the accounting issues for US-listed Chinese small caps. WATG announces today that it will have to restate their earnings statements for the past 2 years and gets sold off by 8% in the morning. Then, the traders actually read the second part of their statement about WATG having to most likely INCREASE their earnings and revenues for the past 2 years, and the stock rallies back up. How silly is that? I am glad that I bought some shares into the panic at $6.12...
CCJ seems to be holding its recent support at $39.80. If any of you gamblers out there want to buy it now after hours and hope for a gap up tomorrow, I would second that attempt. I've seen once how FCX rallied in a similar circumstance, after holding its support at $53 for a few days.
Wow, I see there was some bad-ass action in SLV today, where the mean hedge fund traders dropped it just below yesterday's low to run all the stops and then rallied it back to a flat close.
Jeez...remind me again why I sold my WLT stock and calls. I honestly need to follow this simple rule: if the stock you're trading works once, then comes back and works again, don't sell it too quickly. And the opposite is clearly true. I've now held WLT twice and done well with it. However, both times I needed to have more patience waiting for the bulk of the gains to come to fruition. Meanwhile, I'm constantly struggling to make money on BAC/F and it's just not working out, despite having more patience than with WLT.
CP, I don't think CCJ has released its Q42010 earnings yet. Whatever they were, they will be even better if uranium price keeps going up, and this is what I am betting on. There was a slight pullback in uranium two weeks ago and then an up tick this week, according to the latest spot price info given on www.cameco.com
ha. yeah i'm still in CHGI Mark. holding 27,500 shs. nothing wrong at all with their chart from my perspective. Just building out a nice long shelf after a 100% move up.
by the way, i finally figured out why BAC was so heavy all day. they paid their $.01/share dividend today. now i feel much better about it.
If you read what Alcatel-Lucent wrote in their press release, we refer to the three customers and state how excited they are to learn more about this product and how it works in their networks. The product is not yet available, but should be ready for trialing later this year and available next year. I think the main point we are trying to accomplish with these customer mentions are that customers are interested and as we get closer to the availability of the product launch, we hope to develop more interest.
Just out is an encouraging news article.
Not wanting to be left behind, I bought back on the b/o today.
Mark here's a target for you 7.5-8.0 by eom if mkt holds up. Gun to head we will be fine by than.
I have a proposal for the board. How about each person pick one stock that they think has LT potential, say 2-5 yrs, explain the thesis why and then that person keep the board up on developments.
I would think CP would want GMO. You already know why I like ALU if you read the posts.
Any takers, if so, state your stock and your case when you are ready.
David - I guess you're right about CCJ, March 11th is the earnings release date I have, for some reason I was thinking it had slready passed...
GMO/RBY/CADC - Well you guys probably already know about as much as I can convey pretaining to the few stocks I'm attempting to trade. No doubt sick of hearing about them...
I didn't think PAL would run this far this fast...
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Tuesday scores as a major bummer. The indices tried to rally but they reversed and then sold off hard. This action has them stalling short of their prior highs.
As I said in my trading service last night, it's not the end of the world. One big up day would make a huge difference. However it is important for the recent lows to hold. This area also corresponds with the 50-day moving average.
The above isn't a bull market/bear market "line in the sand." It's simply an inflection point where I would likely pull in my horns a bit and possibly fire off a short or two.
One day at a time.
Obviously, wait for entries on new positions and honor your stops on new ones just in case.
Futures are flat pre-market.
Training Day newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5289 comments) on Wed, 03/02/2011 - 09:25 #80689
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/4udgghk
I think an early morning push higher succeeds in drawing more bulls to the table. Then we wait to see which side of the table walks the talk. If they place a gun against my head, I say we sell off by EOD.
No positions.
Looks like GMO survived earning. You gona listen to the CC CP?
ReplyDeleteOUT EXK. 100% flat. Going to Guerrilla warfare tactics. Looking to hit and run.
ReplyDeleteKNDI - +4.4% The only Electric Vehicle manufacturer that's not a money loser.
ReplyDeleteIt might be an electric rick-shaw for all I know, we'll see.
Sold WLT at $119.2
ReplyDeleteGMO - Nothing new in the press release. Letting core position ride, still looking to re-enter trading position.
ReplyDeleteCADC is probably a buy here, but I'm currently feeling risk adverse.
RB's going Commando-Guerrilla is good enough for me this morning. ;)
Gonna go make some coffee, gotta change the water pressure storage tank today, it ran low on air and broke the water bladder.
Closed my WLT calls at $11.25
ReplyDeleteOk, I have to confess...I now own 4k shares of DANG....DANG I'm dumb!
ReplyDeleteBought 20 x F April $14 Calls at $1.26 avg. I think this move down is a bear trap.
ReplyDeleteALU cooking.
ReplyDeleteAdverse? More like averse. See what happens when you catch me before coffee?
ReplyDeleteGl boys...
ReplyDeleteWhatever happened to vb, she doesn't love us anymore?
ReplyDeletePCP - I bet you won't get a better entry than this one anytime soon.
ReplyDeletewhile the market looks shaky no doubt...why is the price of copper not crashing?
ReplyDeleteBase metals remain pretty strong too, I'm getting the message economic growth remains in the forcast.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't you anticipate natural resourcess, including oil, to rocket at the potential rate of growth that seems to be on the horizon? I mean, it seems to be monumental in scale.
I still think cash is the wrong place to be, just about anything will beat it. I still keep some cash though, just in case we experience a panic.
PMI - As bankrupt as they seem to/must be, was a buy yesterday.
XLF broke its 50-day, Nasdaq and S&P soon to follow? Maybe
ReplyDeleteSP 50 dma, optimized(to be different from the crowd),I have at 1293.50. If we take out 1294.26, would confirm st downtrend or would it be the computers screwing the humans again?
ReplyDeleteIs anyone a "HERO" here? One of Marko's pick.
Good guess, 2nd_ave, about there being a morning rally which then gets sold off!
ReplyDeleteHowever, I am not sure that we are dealing here with just traders' emotions. Oil might really be an exogenous component here, and since oil rallied hard during the past hour, it is only natural for the stocks to sell off. The bullish fact is that they sold off only back to the opening level, while USO is up 2% now.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing Something??? new
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by teamonfuego (2361 comments) on Wed, 03/02/2011 - 12:29 #80726
Why the hell are we not instituting a nationwide stimulus plan focused on implementing nat gas stations and making sure cars can ingest nat gas? Why!?!?!
Not only would that make this whole mideast unrest a moot point to us economically, but it would also give a major boost to our economy and to the jobs situation.
RB - Perhaps, it was a nice thought but I never understood the strength in XLF anyway.
ReplyDeleteMy feeling is we're not waiting on real estate to pull us out of the funk, more like we're waiting on economic growth to pull real estate along.
OT: Maybe those Wisconsin protestors were dipping into Charlie Sheen's stash?
I am really surprised that the market gods (mean hedge fund traders) could not push CCJ low enough this morning to hit my sell stop at $39.80 -- the morning spike down in CCJ ended at $39.82!
ReplyDeleteThey also completely surprised me with WATG, letting it drop hard to $6 after rallying to $7 on Friday. Or maybe it was the "crowd" that was buying WATG on Friday? In any case, on Friday I sold 1000 shares at $6.90 and right now I reloaded 500 of them at $6.12. I have also just placed a sell short limit order for 20 April $5 WATG puts at $0.40 -- the probability of WATG dropping below $5 by April is 0.01, IMO.
TOF - "Why the hell are we not instituting a nationwide stimulus plan focused on implementing nat gas stations and making sure cars can ingest nat gas? Why!?!?!"
ReplyDeleteIs there really enough of it to justify the infrastructure expense? Is that really the best use? Are the current mechanisms of exploration causing irreversible environmental damage?
Seems like only insiders know these details, but I hope they discover a way to develop these wells that doesn't entail disposal of highly toxic tailings into public waterways and contamination of groundwater.
From what I can tell, it kinda seems like burning the furniture to keep the house warm.
Finally, last but not least, ECUXF money pump hit my sell limit at $1.20 for 5600 shares I purchased during the January sell-off at $1.08, booking a profit of $670. In order to "wash, rinse, and repeat" I placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $1.15 and then lowered my next buy limit to $1.10, to have nice 5c intervals between the orders. I also still have a sell limit at $1.25 for 6000 shares.
ReplyDeleteOil is a big impact on the market -- it just sold off by 0.5% and the stock indices immediately rallied. Or could it be that the traders are just viewing oil as safe haven now, and they sell stocks only for the purpose of buying oil and vice versa? What do you folks think?
ReplyDeleteDavid - I suspect the market is simply trying to digest higher oil prices. This is a fact we
ReplyDeletell have to get used to, but right now the news is reporting Ghaduffi has/is attacking West Lybia.
He's not going down without a fight.
Or actually that should be East Libya. Hard to keep my bearings straight.
ReplyDeleteKNDI - + 11%
ReplyDeleteI figured that I should take profits quickly with WATG, while Chinese small caps (HAO) are still making lower highs and lower lows. So I just placed a sell limit order at $6.52 for the 500 shares I picked up earlier today at $6.12. A $200 profit will be good enough for me.
ReplyDeleteCP- The PM miners I follow are looking pretty weak. You still have RBY?
ReplyDeleteSchwabs new trading platform is a POS.
ReplyDeleteJust picked up 100 more shares of CCJ at $40.10, since CCJ is so closing to hitting my stop at $39.80 that a potential loss on these extra 100 shares is insignificant. On the other hand, if CCJ does not hit my stop today and instead makes a nice reversal, then the gain on these 100 shares will be nice.
ReplyDeleteVXX just made a nose dive into the red zone -- the fear traders probably gave up on any further downside today...
ReplyDeleteStill don't like the action, but F is looking pretty good.
ReplyDeleteI think Steve Jobs is proppig up this market. We would be down a point otherwise.
ReplyDeleteAnd Big Ben of coarse giving Uncle BUCK a good Rogering.
ReplyDeleteThe traders are acting totally silly regarding the accounting issues for US-listed Chinese small caps. WATG announces today that it will have to restate their earnings statements for the past 2 years and gets sold off by 8% in the morning. Then, the traders actually read the second part of their statement about WATG having to most likely INCREASE their earnings and revenues for the past 2 years, and the stock rallies back up. How silly is that? I am glad that I bought some shares into the panic at $6.12...
ReplyDeleteMark - Yep, still got RBY with a $0.13/share gain at the moment.
ReplyDeleteI'm still counting on higher gold by July and have a sneaky suspicion RBY will participate.
Okay, maybe not today but it's one I don't want to take a measly gain on then regret later "shoulda' could'a".
Just got done changing out the expansion tank, gotta balance the air charge and pick up the tools, etc.
KNDI - +14.3%
ReplyDelete151 out of 500 shares of WATG were sold at the close at my limit of $6.52. Who the hell trades in such uneven lots???
ReplyDeleteLet's hope WATG gaps up tomorrow and the rest of the order gets filled at a much better price.
CCJ seems to be holding its recent support at $39.80. If any of you gamblers out there want to buy it now after hours and hope for a gap up tomorrow, I would second that attempt. I've seen once how FCX rallied in a similar circumstance, after holding its support at $53 for a few days.
ReplyDeleteWow, I see there was some bad-ass action in SLV today, where the mean hedge fund traders dropped it just below yesterday's low to run all the stops and then rallied it back to a flat close.
ReplyDeleteNEVER place stops at obvious levels...
Jeez...remind me again why I sold my WLT stock and calls. I honestly need to follow this simple rule: if the stock you're trading works once, then comes back and works again, don't sell it too quickly. And the opposite is clearly true. I've now held WLT twice and done well with it. However, both times I needed to have more patience waiting for the bulk of the gains to come to fruition. Meanwhile, I'm constantly struggling to make money on BAC/F and it's just not working out, despite having more patience than with WLT.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- what did Warren say this morning? Did you sell your SPY position (the one you picked up yesterday at the close) into this morning's rally?
ReplyDeleteCREE is back 'there' again.
ReplyDeletePut GMO in the 'there' there group. I really would like to get back in this one.
ReplyDeleteDavid - yes, i Sold the SPY position. It was so small I forgot about it. I only had I think 8 options. Sold them for about a $80 gain.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You still in your pencil maker?
ReplyDeleteDavid - CCJ - Have you listened to/reviewed their conference call/earnings?
ReplyDeleteCREE - Looks sweet, I'd be shocked if they can move it even lower.
ReplyDeleteBCOND - Now here's an invention right down their alley:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=296E57CxNw4
CP, I don't think CCJ has released its Q42010 earnings yet. Whatever they were, they will be even better if uranium price keeps going up, and this is what I am betting on. There was a slight pullback in uranium two weeks ago and then an up tick this week, according to the latest spot price info given on www.cameco.com
ReplyDeleteha. yeah i'm still in CHGI Mark. holding 27,500 shs. nothing wrong at all with their chart from my perspective. Just building out a nice long shelf after a 100% move up.
ReplyDeleteby the way, i finally figured out why BAC was so heavy all day. they paid their $.01/share dividend today. now i feel much better about it.
ALU's reply,
ReplyDeleteJoe,
If you read what Alcatel-Lucent wrote in their press release, we refer to the three customers and state how excited they are to learn more about this product and how it works in their networks. The product is not yet available, but should be ready for trialing later this year and available next year. I think the main point we are trying to accomplish with these customer mentions are that customers are interested and as we get closer to the availability of the product launch, we hope to develop more interest.
Just out is an encouraging news article.
Not wanting to be left behind, I bought back on the b/o today.
Mark here's a target for you 7.5-8.0 by eom if mkt holds up. Gun to head we will be fine by than.
I have a proposal for the board. How about each person pick one stock that they think has LT potential, say 2-5 yrs, explain the thesis why and then that person keep the board up on developments.
ReplyDeleteI would think CP would want GMO. You already know why I like ALU if you read the posts.
Any takers, if so, state your stock and your case when you are ready.
David - I guess you're right about CCJ, March 11th is the earnings release date I have, for some reason I was thinking it had slready passed...
ReplyDeleteGMO/RBY/CADC - Well you guys probably already know about as much as I can convey pretaining to the few stocks I'm attempting to trade. No doubt sick of hearing about them...
I didn't think PAL would run this far this fast...
CCJ - Damn, I meant Feb 11th...
ReplyDelete