Thursday, March 24, 2011

3/25/11 Birth Of The Cool Index



This market cares not about the roadblocks strewn along its path higher. Strike a wrong note? So what- it will launch a searing solo from that half note misstep.

We should find out Friday if 'volume' comes into play.
Posted by at

67 comments:

  1. MarkWMarch 24, 2011 at 5:24 PM

    EBIX- Looks like a Seeking Alpha article was the catalyst.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveMarch 24, 2011 at 5:34 PM

    tof- Your subscription to Mark's blog has paid off, has it not? No more complaints about the ridiculous hourly rates.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 2nd_aveMarch 24, 2011 at 6:01 PM

    'Gold Breakout Imminent' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5385 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 21:00 #82301
    http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

    I can't recall the last time Twiggs went out on a limb like that.

    ReplyDelete
  4. MarkWMarch 24, 2011 at 6:05 PM

    2nd- Me either. Hmmmm.

    ReplyDelete
  5. 2nd_aveMarch 24, 2011 at 6:09 PM

    I may take a flyer on SLW.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 2nd_aveMarch 24, 2011 at 6:13 PM

    It's like standing at the table and the Scrooge at the other end suddenly throws a black chip on Don't Pass.

    ReplyDelete
  7. teamonfuegoMarch 24, 2011 at 7:55 PM

    Man...GLD is one fine looking chart. Today was the ultimate in bear traps in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousMarch 24, 2011 at 8:00 PM

    just stopping by to give my perspective.

    snow and then more snow in tahoe


    vb

    ReplyDelete
  9. MarkWMarch 24, 2011 at 8:39 PM

    Yikes, can you guys imagine living in a county that might be on the sharp end of a Tomahawk/MOAB/Daisey Cutter? Cricks.

    ReplyDelete
  10. RoBearMarch 24, 2011 at 10:11 PM

    Arizona! Arizona! They were the honey badger tonight. Duke? Well Duke sucks!!!! Go Pac 10!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Telestar3dMarch 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

    Your an animal (the girl) worst human (Manny).


    "No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity".
    "But I know none, and therefore am no beast."

    Just finished The Runaway Train. Thanks 2nd.

    ReplyDelete
  12. JesseMarch 25, 2011 at 4:30 AM

    I spent the past hour or so looking at historical VIX charts as VIX, VXO, VXN all look very bullish from a technical perspective. VIX has traded down in a straight line from 31.28 to 17.87 in just 6 trading sessions.

    I looked back at similar plummets without retracement rallies (which relieve pressure and lessen the future upward thrust). If the VIX does not spike higher than the previous thrust (31.28 in this case), it usually retraces the previous spike about 50% on average. This would mean the VIX would at some point spike to the 24 or 25 area. My guess would be the 22-23 area up to February's level.

    I'm not saying I'm bearish on the market. But these VIX indicators have a "relief" spike from the selling pressure written all over it.

    Again, from Sentimentrader yesterday:

    Generally, when the VIX is more than 10% below its 10-day average, then the stock market is overbought; when it's more than 10% above the average, it's oversold.

    Over the past week, the VIX has gone from more than 30% above its average to more than 15% below. That gives us precious few historical comparisons, but when we relax the parameters to 15% both ways, we get a few more."

    In this instance, the VIX was 30% above its 10 day average and is now down about 20% BELOW its 10 day average. Going back to the 15/15 scenario above, we get the following 1 week returns for the VIX:

    Note: VIX has ALREADY declined an additional 6% since this was published)

    1 week VIX returns:
    -17%, -12%, +2.6%, +10.6%, +11.7%, +15.9%, +19.5%, +43.9%. Mean VIX 1 week return: 11.2%

    I picked up TVIX yesterday as my limit orders were hit. I intend to pick up more at the open...

    My feeling is that even if the market heads higher (probable), there needs to be a good dose of fear to climb a "wall of worry".

    At the moment, there is no fear. The VIX is now back to pre-Libya,Egypt, Japan,radiation, Saudi, Euro- downgrade levels. At some point, you would think a little fear would re-enter the market...

    ReplyDelete
  13. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 5:54 AM

    Dip/Rise Into EOQ newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5386 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 08:53 #82317
    The ideal scenario for bulls? Friday pullback to inject a little weekend anxiety into the markets. Then short squeeze +/- window-dressing to new highs by end of Q1.

    ReplyDelete
  14. JBmaderaMarch 25, 2011 at 6:53 AM

    CRYP spiking again on big vol. I smell a rat here.

    ReplyDelete
  15. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 6:54 AM

    HDY having one of those days...

    ReplyDelete
  16. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 6:55 AM

    CRYP- Yep. Hired a firm to advise on possible buyout.

    ReplyDelete
  17. JBmaderaMarch 25, 2011 at 6:55 AM

    more CRYP - with D&T leading the "strategic review" seems that there will be a take-under as opposed to a take-over......still a fun one to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  18. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 6:59 AM

    Closed my SPF stock and AAPL stock/calls...thinking we pull back a little then gap higher.

    Long UGL at $71.25. Also long GLD April 01 $138 calls at $2.44 avg. I think Gold breaks out here.

    ReplyDelete
  19. KyleMarch 25, 2011 at 7:05 AM

    TIE - Moving up

    ReplyDelete
  20. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 7:20 AM

    OPEN...Unreal.

    ReplyDelete
  21. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 7:22 AM

    'Take-under'?

    ReplyDelete
  22. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 7:24 AM

    Please give me the balls to hang onto BEXP.

    ReplyDelete
  23. JBmaderaMarch 25, 2011 at 7:25 AM

    take-under: when a distressed company agrees to be bought out (or parts sold off) at a share price below where it is currently trading.

    ReplyDelete
  24. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 7:29 AM

    Hmmm..The price action doesn't suggest that.

    ReplyDelete
  25. JBmaderaMarch 25, 2011 at 7:43 AM

    I think it's being pushed up on the speculation that they will be able to dump the co at a premium, my bet is that they will not be able to and when the deal is announced speculators will be disappointed.

    ReplyDelete
  26. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    I wonder how Twiggs reacted to the GLD price action yesterday after posting his breakout imminent. I think yesterday was a trap one way or another. My thinking is a bear trap...

    ReplyDelete
  27. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    Re: Dip/Rise Into EOQ newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5387 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 10:35 #82328 (in reply to #82317)
    Doesn't want to go down. Moving to 75% of allocation on CSCO @ 17.23, and adjusting for possible Rise/Gap-Up Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  28. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 8:00 AM

    WFC> To 50% @ 32 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5388 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 11:00 #82330
    Adding on strength. WFC will have a 4-handle soon enough. Best bank in the Bay Area.

    ReplyDelete
  29. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 8:02 AM

    Got to run. Can't take it anymore!!

    ReplyDelete
  30. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 8:19 AM

    GE> To 50% @ 19.89 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5389 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 11:07 #82331
    Adding on strength.

    ReplyDelete
  31. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 8:25 AM

    SMH breaking out? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5390 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 11:23 #82332
    Already fully loaded, so no plans to add. However, a case can be made for aggressively trading a breakout.

    ReplyDelete
  32. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 9:03 AM

    Mark - Hope I didn't personally shake you out of DANG but it looks like it may have put a bottom in. Yesterday could have been a shakeout.

    ReplyDelete
  33. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 9:09 AM

    In fact I decided to go long DANG at $20.35. What the hell...I was long the stock at $27 and thinking it could ultimately go to $100...so now is a better entry than then.

    ReplyDelete
  34. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 9:14 AM

    Major risk with DANG is the CEO taking on the IPO underwriters and Baidu. Revenue growth isn't an issue.

    ReplyDelete
  35. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 9:15 AM

    INTC> To 80% @ 20.55 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5391 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 11:54 #82339
    On strength. Large-cap value coming into play, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  36. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 9:51 AM

    T3D- Nice job with RBY.

    TOF- Nah...I'm doing much better with most of those $'s in BEXP. I didn't like the deal with BIBU though. Your not worried about that now?

    ReplyDelete
  37. DavidMarch 25, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    RE: WATG

    CP: here is an article that expected WATG to report on March 23:

    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/125819/20110323/us-earnings-watch-march-23-nasdaq-stock-market-nyse-general-mills-texas-industries-wonder-auto-techn.htm

    Here is an excerpt from their NT10-K filed on March 17:

    "As a result [of the accounting review], the Company is unable to complete its Form 10-K within the prescribed time period. The Company remains committed to completing its Form 10-K at the earliest possible time, but does not currently anticipate its completion within the fifteen calendars following the prescribed due date."

    ReplyDelete
  38. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 9:57 AM

    2nd nasty reversal day for silver.

    ReplyDelete
  39. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 10:02 AM

    BODY- Remember we were talking about this one?

    ReplyDelete
  40. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    DANGit! Move in the dollar caught me offguard today. I managed to get out of my UGL at breakeven but not so lucky on the GLD $138 calls expiring next friday. Those are down 25%. Oh well. Now DANG is a different story. Bought it at the highs of the day.

    ReplyDelete
  41. ChickenpookieMarch 25, 2011 at 10:15 AM

    CADC - Well, I finally did some heavy pruning here, with a continued eye for legging out ASAP. Reason: The Chinese VIE structure.

    Lesson learned, I must say.

    ReplyDelete
  42. ChickenpookieMarch 25, 2011 at 10:21 AM

    PS: I was anticipating another PM smack-down follow through today, still sticking with my July targets though.

    Meanwhile, I need to do some fancy jr. PM trading to reduce my basis. We'll see...

    ReplyDelete
  43. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 10:24 AM

    CP- Re:CADC...Not sure what you mean.

    ReplyDelete
  44. ChickenpookieMarch 25, 2011 at 11:02 AM

    CADC - Okay, now I'm completely out. Took my gains and ran away so now they can delist without me. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  45. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:13 AM

    I keep waiting for ECUXF to break a buck again for an entry.

    ReplyDelete
  46. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:15 AM

    SD...Good lord, it's 12 now. We coulda' had a 300%er on that one guys :(

    ReplyDelete
  47. ChickenpookieMarch 25, 2011 at 11:16 AM

    Mark - I believe there's a quiet Chinese VIE exodus in progress, which took me way too long to figure out. Either I'm wrong, or apparently the phenomenon has gotten the best of some really good traders but hasn't escaped alert bears.

    I wasn't about to stick around to see how things did or didn't turn out... ;)

    ReplyDelete
  48. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:19 AM

    CP- OK. What is VIE?

    Their shorting OPEN/NFLX on SOH.

    ReplyDelete
  49. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:26 AM

    SPY is fighting R1.

    ReplyDelete
  50. ChickenpookieMarch 25, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    Mark - VIE is a cool TLA surely you can appreciate, this kind of jargon is right down your alley, Cali-man!

    ReplyDelete
  51. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:32 AM

    Hun???

    Looks like you got out in the nick of time.

    ReplyDelete
  52. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    Amazing...There are 200K shares on the bid @ 1.53 for CRYP. Average daily volume is about 10K shares.

    ReplyDelete
  53. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:45 AM

    HEK looks ripe for a short here guys.

    ReplyDelete
  54. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 11:48 AM

    Man, SWN/UNG have been on a tear.

    Good call on Natty Jesse.

    ReplyDelete
  55. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 11:56 AM

    Mark - I would never have purchased SD because of their debt but it's been a great trade. Man. Wow.

    I know I was down on DANG, but I'm thinking it has bottomed. Granted i'm long but this thing has been completely suppressed while the rest of the china internet market is on fire. i think this reverses hard very soon. i wouldn't be surprised to see DANG at $30

    ReplyDelete
  56. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 12:00 PM

    then again, the CEO has got to do in DANG. tough call...

    ReplyDelete
  57. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:08 PM

    DANG- I'm going to work on it this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  58. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:10 PM

    ORCL has sold off ALL day.

    ReplyDelete
  59. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:13 PM

    AKAM/JDSU/NVDA...?

    ReplyDelete
  60. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:28 PM

    Everything looks a little tired here. Can we just call it a day?

    ReplyDelete
  61. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 12:31 PM

    Mark - I'll call it a day if NLS gets over $3.

    ReplyDelete
  62. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:38 PM

    Make it 2.90 and I'll take care of it right now.

    ReplyDelete
  63. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:42 PM

    New HOD for SD.

    ReplyDelete
  64. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/LJ27Cb01.html

    This is a good start Mark...certainly not as bullish as I was thinking...

    ReplyDelete
  65. MarkWMarch 25, 2011 at 12:49 PM

    Imbalances...

    Financials-SELL

    Materials-BUY

    Energy-BUY.

    ReplyDelete
  66. teamonfuegoMarch 25, 2011 at 12:57 PM

    http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/chinese-internet-ipos-dangdang-or-youko/19757623/

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/12/08/VI2010120804911.html

    couple more Mark.

    ReplyDelete
  67. 2nd_aveMarch 25, 2011 at 1:45 PM

    What about TECH?

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)