Sunday, March 27, 2011
3/27/11 Catalytic Sentiment Converters> DJIA 12500/SPX 1350
We have a few coming up-
(a) End of Q1 window-dressing.
(b) Q2 Earnings pre-announcements/optimism.
(c) Factory Orders/Chicago PMI.
(d) Payrolls on Friday.
A 2+% week is not out of the question, which is all it would take to print new highs for the year.
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Weren't we all thinking about loading up on a 5-10% pullback? We got the pullback. Now we're off to the races.
ReplyDeleteagree, currently 67% long. wish I had bought more tech a few weeks back when it was correcting.
ReplyDeleteAbout the same percentage long here.
ReplyDeletegoing to be watching SREV, hopefully it pulls back a bit so I can jump in (ala Landry).
ReplyDeleteAnother Manic Monday for CALM?
ReplyDeleteShort positions STILL 34% of the float- unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteAbove comment refers to CALM.
ReplyDelete2nd - what's your target for CALM?
ReplyDeleteEggs again?
ReplyDeleteJB- Any word on CAL?
Well that was Fing brilliant. Took the converty out for a spin and got caught in a down pour doing 120mph. Damn near bought it.
ReplyDeleteAt least I wont have to wash the inside for a while :)
Mark...Hope all that rain doesn't hurt the grape vines out there. Love those Sonoma reds.
ReplyDeleteI'm 65% cash and looking for buys. Think CSCO is a bargain anywhere close to 17 and may add more even though am down from purchase @ 19.26 on Feb 10. If you buy before the x-div date on March 31 you will get the meager .06 divy on Apr 20. Also GILD, a biotech that makes money, has just broken out @ 42.08 but the RSI 7 is now up to 77. CALM is also on my radar as a bargain. Can eggs get any cheaper? They are a food bargain just as NG is an energy bargain.
ReplyDeletehey guys - hope your weekend went well. my cat had a big brawl with our neighbors cat today and as a result she has been hospitalized and is undergoing some minor surgery tomorrow...other than that my weekend has been filled with rooting for random college basketball teams that give me a chance in my bracket. i don't usually fill them out cuz i don't follow NCAA basketball but i did this year and managed to get within 1 win of winning it. but UNC failed me.
ReplyDeletei've been reading Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street again for like the 5th time, but 1st time in a long while and it's just a great reminder of how important it is to keep your cool and to not get shaken out of what appear to be promising trends/businesses, whether it's being a bull from 2009 to 2011 or being early but right on Nat Gas. I've been thinking that we should all talk to our significant others and see if they know of any mainstream trends that are just catching on that might end up being good investments (i.e., the 10 baggers Lynch talks about so much). i think this is probably the area we should be focusing on now given that most of the companies that were going to turn things around from the brink of bankruptcy have already done so (maybe with the exception of NLS but the jury is still out on that one). i just think the focus will/should be more on the traditional search for good companies in great long term trends than turnarounds/rebounds. one idea that always comes to mind is IMMR but i still don't know if they have the business model to capitalize on the crazy growth in touchscreen everything. they're a logical beneficiary though, in my mind. anyone else have any others?
Oh one company I came across that looks promising is SUMR. They make products for infants. The only issue (and a big one) I can come up with them is their balance sheet, which could be a problem if oil kills the economy/product costs and they don't have financial flexibility. They only have like $1.3 Million in cash and like $40 or $50 Million in debt.
ReplyDeleteTeam Why are you researching infant clothes? Baby Badger?
ReplyDeleteScreens look at PANL. They make OLEDs. OLEDs are the future of screens due to thinness,brightness, lightheartedness and low power. I am not sure about touch screen. Only trouble already a 3 bagger since June.
2nd - I sold CALM in the wake of the last S&P correction. I have been holding it for 2 month and it hardly moved. Anything you see now that make you believe that it is ready for an up trend.
ReplyDeleteIgor
ha good one RB.
ReplyDeleteIMMR has patents on feedback from touchscreens (vibrations, etc). as they currently stand, though, feedback on touchscreens isn't currently an essential.
IMMR is a real messy daily chart, but I like the weekly and monthly. This might be a good one to put in the port and forget about it.
ReplyDeleteSUMR probably has nice clothes for baby badgers, but its volume is too light for me. Against trading rules. Learned that rule the hard way.
ReplyDeletejb/igor- The only reason I brought up CALM is earnings announcement today. I can't say I have an opinion, other than after 2-3 years of gaming the stock, you would think shorts would be out of the game by now.
ReplyDeleteMark- You know, with a wife and three kids depending on you, doing 120 mph in the rain should give you pause.
ReplyDeleteMore importantly, are you saying there are stretches in Sonoma County where one need not worry about the CHP?
SMH off @ 34.73 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5399 comments) on Mon, 03/28/2011 - 09:42 #82461
ReplyDeleteTrading around the position. SMH heavily weighted in TXN/INTC/AMAT. I already own INTC. Also want to expand holdings beyond technology/financials.
BEXP in the IRA @ 34.80.
ReplyDeletePT changed by CS today to $45.
2nd- There are some great stretches of road here. Way to many back roads for the CHP to cover. But yeah, that wasn't so bright.
ReplyDeleteALU- Damn.
ReplyDeleteNOKer upgraded by GS.
ReplyDeleteAdded some DANG this morning at $20.2 and $20.3. I'm thinking that regardless how many issues are surrounding this stock, the momentum in the Chinese internet sector is enough to lift this stock over the coming weeks.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Talk about a fake out/shake out at the open.
ReplyDeleteCP- Nice job bailing right at the edge of the cliff! CADC.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking DANG is now in play...i'm expecting a huge move here
ReplyDeleteIf DANG gets follow through tomorrow then it's definitely in play....
ReplyDeleteCSCO/GE/INTC looking good, baby!
ReplyDeleteOh, sorry. Only talking about 0.5-1% moves here. Sometimes I feel like the rest of you are racing down Hwy 1 in Boxsters, and I'm ripping up the road a few miles back in my Camry...
DANG!!..nice timing TOF :)
ReplyDelete2nd > you know what they say about the tortoise and the hare right?
ReplyDeleteCALM up 4.5 % after earnings this morning. Damn, patience pays....
ReplyDeleteGL boyz.
ReplyDeletethis is from cramer...i wonder what buffett would say if he read this...:
ReplyDelete"OK, here's what is going to happen: Within the next year we will most likely see IPOs for Twitter, Zynga (games), Groupon, LinkedIn, and perhaps Facebook.
They will be huge deals. I would bet the smallest would be Zynga at $10 billion. The others will be worth more than that, maybe much more. Those who get in as venture capitalists will make fortunes. Those who get in on the IPOs also will make fortunes. Those who buy in the aftermarket? Initially they will make some money but, later on, that's not clear.
Now, here's how things will play out: Throughout this period there will be tremendous naysaying, not unlike in the excellent piece in the New York Times' DealBook today--always great reading and never ideological. That's why I like it so much.
As fortunes are being made, the critics will come out of the woodwork. And you know who they will be criticizing? Me. Why? Because I will be trying to get you in to make as much money as possible--and you will--until it all blows up, and hopefully when it does you will have taken so much off the table that you will still have a huge net win.
For supporting your buying I will be castigated as a fool and a charlatan and be hounded as someone who has no rigor and was always a joker.
You know why this is wrong? Because, if you go read "Confessions of a Street Addict," I knew the valuations during the dot-com bubble were all wrong. I knew that it was absurd. I know that it was a repulsive era and I agreed with those who said it was all nuts.
But there was one big difference, the same difference this time around: I want you to make hay with it while the sun shines. I don't want you taking the counsel of bearish traders initially. Once we have made a lot of money, that's a horse of a different color. In other words, I'm telling you I have seen this picture before, and it ends really badly. But--and this is what the naysayers don't understand--you don't have to stay until the end of the movie.
I don't care, by the way, that these new crops are better than the 1999 era because they will still be colossally overvalued. I will stipulate that they are even more overvalued than bearish investors think. But it is totally irrelevant, an abstraction, at least at the beginning. And I am willing, once again, to risk my reputation both telling you when to get in and when to get out.
The easiest thing to do is to say, "It is all overvalued I don't want to play." But that will make you nothing. It is my job to try to make you something. So I will fight them. I will get you in. And then, before the movie ends, I will do my best to try to get you out. That's how the real money game is played.
Random musings: It is the above logic that warrants investing in the $12 billion market cap that is Netflix, knowing that it will be wildly more profitable than many of the new net companies coming public. It simply can't stay as low as $12 billion after these companies' IPOs. It just makes no sense. So you have to get in ahead to make the most money. "
Speaking of tortoise and the hare...latest from Jeff Saut:
ReplyDelete"Here’s the paradox: The odds are overwhelming I will end up richer by aiming for a good return rather than a brilliant return -- and sleep better en route. Folks who seek a killing usually get killed. Gunslingers get shot, and often in the foot, with their own guns. While there is always some guy around on a red-hot streak, his main function is to tempt the rest of us into becoming fools and paupers. A return of 15% to 20% annually is a lot more than most folks realize, or need. If a 30-year-old with $10,000 in an IRA gets 15% annually, he’ll be a millionaire before normal retirement. That’s the power of compound interest. If that same 30-year-old were to sock away another $2,000 per year at 15%, he would end up as a 65-year old $3 million fat cat. At 20%, it’s an incredible $13 million. That’s a lot, but it’s not too much to ask. The two most definitive studies ever on long-term returns, the Ibbotson/Sinquefield and Fisher/Lorie studies, both point to average annual returns for stocks of 9% plus per year going back to the mid-1920s. So 15% to 20% per year is really 66% to 100% better than the market as a whole. That’s tough but doable. Consistency is the key. It is close to impossible to get a good, long-term, rate of return if you suffer serious negative numbers en route. It’s the math. A single year that is down 30% means you have to get 30% per year positive returns for the next four years to get back on track for a 15% annual average. Or, if you score 20% annually for four years, and then suffer a 30% decline, your five-year average return is only 7%."
ahhhh the good old multibaggers. want to see something gross? take a look at ADES.
ReplyDelete1000 PXP @ 38.84.
ReplyDeletePT raised @ CS to $48.
Great guess on DANG, TOF! What does your intuition tell you about REDF? Is it ready to shoot up after consolidating over the past few days?
ReplyDeleteLULU/NFLX/OPEN...Unreal.
ReplyDeleteToday's shakeout in REDF at the open went down less then yesterday, and REDF is creeping lost ground quickly, just like yesterday. So could it be that REDF will have an explosive move later on *today*?
ReplyDeleteDavid - REDF looks to me like it's following the same pattern from a few months ago. In fact, it is trading the same way it did from like 8 years ago. I would look to the past as a guide for how it can trade. Seems to consolidate the first move higher for several days if not a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess my point is REDF ain't ready to bust up yet.
ReplyDelete500 PXP @ 35.84.
ReplyDeleteThat would be 35.54 of course :)...
ReplyDeleteCP- What's up buddy?
Just moved back into JDSU at $19.56. I think I sold this on Thursday for $20.2 or $20.3. I like the small pullback for an attempt to get up to the low 20's.
ReplyDeleteI'll buy 500 more PXP after floor trading in crude closes, unless the bottom falls out.
ReplyDeleteCALM - And to think I had considered buying in this morning...
ReplyDelete120mph in a boxter might not bee too dangerous if it's got VR tires on it and the whole nine yards, but it wouldn't be a good idea IMO in an 70's Chrysler.
ReplyDeleteI assume we're talking boxter sonce ther are curves in the road, and then if someone's riding a bicycle are you going to see them in time?
The last time I took the Mustang to 120 was in the central valley and I torched the front rotors trying to stop at a stop sign I'd forgotten about. Both rotors were cracked and devitrified so new ones were necessary.
Eggs.. I don't get it. I really don't follow the price of food, but when I was last at Cosco, I noticed that you could get a dozen eggs for $1. Granted, you had to buy like 1.5M eggs to get that price, but really??
ReplyDeleteTOF...Don't forget stvi.ob....that could turn out to be multi-bagger when the winds of 'Social Media' are blowing later this year....
ReplyDelete500 PXP @ 35.38. Not really sure about this. It seems to be following MMR. Maybe their lease values are getting re-priced. We'll see. I'm up big on BEXP so I"m willing to take a little heat on this one.
ReplyDeleteCP- I'm more worried about a cow in the raod. However, I'm not going to push it like that again.
ReplyDeleteMan, check out the floor close for Natty.
ReplyDeleteAnon - Yeah I have STVI on my watch list...it's a nice little company, just not sure their potential is much more than $3 or $4.
ReplyDeleteBought some more JDSU at $19.42.
Mark - Exactly, anything in the road could create a problem you wouldn't be able to steer around at that speed. I know how long it takes me to stop the mustang at that speed and it was considerably further than I would've thought. I could smell smoke from the brakes wafting around the windshield almost immediately and once those disk pads start outgassing from the heat, stopping ability drops off like a rock. The harder you press, the more smoke you'll get. Adjust for maximum smoke as desired, hope there's plenty o' pavement in front of you. Did I forget to mention the stop sign I accidentally blew through last time I drove 120mph? Luckily nobody else was in the intersection.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess your car must have oversized, drilled rotors? Drilled rotors should help a lot at those speeds, especially if the car is light.
I say there's nothing wrong with a leisurely cruise with the top down at legal speed, considerably better odds you'll see your kids while pulling back into the driveway than from some hospital bed or behind bars (assuming luck is on your side)...
I've driven the stang doing 60mph in a rain shower and not gotten the interior wet, aside from the top edge of the rear seat....
ALU - Survey says: Two thumbs up!
ReplyDeleteTOF -- looks like you were right, REDF won't happen today. But maybe tomorrow? :)
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that my sell to open order for 10 May $5 puts on WATG was filled at $0.4 this morning. I hope my scaling into WATG won't end the same way as it did with ESLR...
CP- Yeah, the rotors are drilled/oversized, but I'm done playing that game. Scared me a little.
ReplyDeleteOut TVIX +1
ReplyDeleteUNG +.20
Bought ATEA 5.59
Bought LMLP 3.34
That's it. Just bracing for a potential dismal week....
LMLP triple bottom in 3.20's and near 50% retracement from highs a couple weeks back. Worth a stab w/ a stop at the lows. .08 eps w/ 133% revenue growth.
ReplyDeleteATEA blew out eps on Friday w/ .34 w/ growing backlog. I watched this one fly from 3 to 26 w/ similar numbers back in 2004-05.
Re: stocks selling hard before closing newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5400 comments) on Mon, 03/28/2011 - 16:17 #82513 (in reply to #82509)
ReplyDeletejack- Selling off further in extended hours. At this point, however, I view it as a positive for bulls. We need to work off the 'overbought' readings. No change in my outlook yet.
Re: stocks selling hard before closing newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5401 comments) on Mon, 03/28/2011 - 16:21 #82515 (in reply to #82513)
ReplyDeleteA better way to put it might be- opening TZA didn't even cross my mind ;)
2nd > TZA shouldn't cross our minds even if we're in a bear market.
ReplyDeleteSold BEXP in the IRA for 36.30 AH. +3.64%.
ReplyDeleteKnew we should have taken s shot at CRYP @ 1.00. Now trading @ 2.29.
ReplyDeletenice mark. wow that is one great looking chart. almost as good as ADES.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks. Kinda strange bid AH so I took it. Have way to much of it in my trading account anyway. 7K shares +8.88%.
ReplyDeleteADES- Crazy. Sorry you missed it. I couldn't take the thin trading.
Mark > Yeah ADES is on fire. It's so funny how when I was looking at it I was thinking it could go to $20 and no analysts were covering or positivie on the stock. Now that it's in the 20's they come out of the woodwork and upgrade it with targets in the 30's.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Back to $18
ReplyDeletePMI - Still nothing interesting there, but I'm keeping an eye on it.
TOF- Yeah, I just read those. When you first mentioned it I checked it out and there was nothing on it.
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on MDW if it can get back to 1.50ish.
ReplyDeleteMDW - Looks like a decent price here...
ReplyDelete