XLF chart. I see a possible head and shoulder. That pattern is wrong so often that it cold be a buy signal. All the rat tails on the candles the past too weeks indicate people are buying any dips. Looks strong even though the experts would say it is in a neutral trend. I do like pure plays on consumer credit DEBT. DSC, and COF are certainly not in a neutral range. Can you think of any others that have not left the station.
I meant DFS not DSC. Cheak out DCS a nice find on a mistaken ticker. And it goes without saying I meant COULD instead of COLD (which ILLINI is probably feeling right now.)
For crying out loud, man. DFS, not DSC? And now DCS? Try typing my way- take a hit, mellow out, listen to some music, get your thoughts together..then type.
Re-entered UNG 11.23 after hours. Looks like there's quite a bit of support in the 11.00-11.20 area. I was looking for a pullback, but 11.91 to 11.15 within 24 hours? I'm a buyer....
I'm with you regarding head and shoulders charts. The decline after the "real" h+s patterns happens so fast and is so steep that the pattern is only evident in hindsight. When everyone is talking about the pattern as it emerges, it rarely materializes and could be considered a buy signal w/ everyone being defensive.
Kind of like the head and shoulder pattern in EEM over the past 6 months. The right shoulder slowly started rolling over, then bam! Its off to the races...
jesse- If we all pretty much agree that we're headed higher 'later' this year, then the question becomes- 'Why would the market have any interest in 'respecting' technicals/precendents? Why not hit those numbers in a manner that completely frustrates traders?' ie, exactly as its moving now?
Weekly SPY chart. Notice the failed summer of 2010 H/S very prominent. This chart is so bullish looking, 2nd might be setting his sights too low. Technically speaking were in a huge bullmarket!
Once again, real estate owned by the sewer dwelling beltway insiders club outperformed every other housing market in the country. Wonder if NYC didn't come in a very close second...
Hmm, I finally watched a documentary on Chernobel this evening as a refresher on the status of the largest nuclear power accident until Fukushima.
Man, it going to be another 30,000 years before half of the ceisium is decayed, there are completely dead pine forests in the vicinity where background radiation remains 500x normal and radioactive dust is still leaking out of the makeshift reactor containment enclosure that was constructed.
Maybe one aspect of the Chernobyl accident that spared the area more grief was that the reactor actually blew up and spewed it's contents into the wind blowing over most of Europe (Poland/Germany,etc.) and so there weren't hundreds of tons of fuel left standing in the reactor with no mechanism for removing it such as is the case in Japan.
RBY - What an unbelievable pooch screw, management has declared an information blackout and is just sitting there not providing any clarity on the securities commission investigation while rumors are leaking and imaginations running wild about what must be going on behind closed doors.
I predict that this disaster will devastate Japan for decades. As for the rest of us and the Earth taken as a whole, it's just another nail in the coffin. Meantime, I am not buying Japan or anything nuclear. That includes sushi.
illini is right, it is another nail in the coffin if nuclear can't be made fail-safe. By failsafe, I mean in all aspects, inclusive of all byproducts and not subject to human error, mechanical problems or design oversight.
30,000 years cesium half-life is 600 human generations before 50% of decay is complete.
Seriously, that's not renewable or sustainable, it's more akin to suicide. It's time to make the investment and work out all of the kinks before going forward or just move on to another technology.
It might be possible using thorium or some other stable and recyclable fuel blends if there weren't special interests involved.
Until then I'll remain in the disapproval camp, the third time's a charm. I really think this one's dead meat after whatever hopeful bounce that may or may not occur and a whole lot more wasted government subsidy gets thrown at it.
"*The reader is cautioned that the Company’s recently filed NI 43-101 technical report containing its Phoenix Gold Project mineral resource and geological potential estimates for the F2 Gold System, is under review by the British Columbia Securities Commission and the Company expects to file an amended technical report for the Project. The Company will make a timely announcement if any material changes to the estimates result from an amended report*."
And this:
"Amended NI 43-101 Technical Report for Rubicon's Phoenix Gold Project
02/14/2011
VANCOUVER, Feb. 14 /CNW/ - (RMX:TSX | RBY:NYSE-AMEX) (the "Company") announced today that, as a result of a review by the British Columbia Securities Commission of the Company's recently filed NI 43-101 technical report containing its Phoenix Gold Project mineral resource and geological potential estimates for the F2 Gold System, the Company expects to file an amended technical report for the Project. The Company will make a timely announcement if any material changes to the estimates result from an amended report.
RUBICON MINERALS CORPORATION "David W. Adamson" President & CEO "
Your illustrious beltway insiders remain hard at work helping themselves:
"FDA chemist, son charged with insider trading- AP A chemist with the Food and Drug Administration and his son were arrested Tuesday on charges of running a $2.27 million insider trading scheme."
The key is to not live among them. They're so wrapped up in love with themselves they have no idea I'm here watching them.
Their philosophy involves begging for forgiveness once caught as opposed to first asking for permission, in all they do.
Following a guilty verdict they'll tell the judge they're not sorry because they just know they did nothing wrong. As if they might convince the judge she/he made a mistake. It's the most incredible concept of selfishness you'll ever experience.
Team IMMR a little 7% pop today. Were you not talking about that yesterday. F'n' PANL new parabolic highs. Why don't we just forget about OIL and Gold and Banks and just buy F'n'screens. Like DUHHH. The whole world is going to be one big fuken touch screen. Right?
With that rant out of the way HERO and DNR are setting up nicely here. Maybe second impulse higher is in the cards.
I just came back from an overnight ski trip to Tahoe (I think that was the last chance to ski in a decent snow, before it starts melting), and I see that REDF did have a nice pop today. Yesterday I sensed that the pop was near, since REDF had two morning shakeouts in a row that were bought aggressively, and so the stock was obviously not going down.
I will let REDF "run" now. However, in order to make sure that I don't "let a profit turn into a loss," I just placed a sell stop limit order at $6.98/$6.9 for the 1K shares I purchased at $6.98 last week.
As for RBY, I just placed a sell limit order for 10 May $5 puts on RBY at the asking price of $0.9. The current uncertainty about their resource size is totally irrelevant with respect to their cashflow for the first 10 years of the mine life, and hence it is just a buying opportunity.
Bought more RBY on margin again at the close yesterday (4.52 to 4.54), sold physical just now to pay for it. Adding at a rate of $25 to $50k per day anything under $4.75. Determining the qty to buy that way allows me to add progressively more shares when the price is lower.
My wife is not happy. Take no risk, get no reward I replied. Most of the millions we have are from similar risks taken when the market was pricing a stock irrationally out of fear. In this cas the mini-panic in RBY was caused by a yahoo post where they say the total estimate will probably get reduced. Well, DUH! That's why the price is already down by about 1/3. But you have to remember there are 9 months of drilling results not included, too. And long term, I'll bet it turns out the 4 mm oz number is way low, but it will be years before that is seen.
When the market is at an inflection point, a down day is going to look ominous and an up day is going to look great. Therefore, it's important not to get too excited one way or the other. With that said, I am encouraged by the fact that the market ended higher on Tuesday, especially after faking out lower first.
One day at a time though. A few big up days would be a major positive. It would have the market closing in on new highs. Conversely, a few big down days would not be a good thing.
If the market continues higher, we'll go back to focusing exclusively on the long side. In the meantime, continue to look to squeeze off a short or two but ONLY on entries. So far, this has kept us out of trouble.
Again, there have some pockets of strength here and there. So, we could end up with a market where we play both sides. Hopefully though (I know, I said hope), the overall market will continue higher so we won't have to bother with shorts.
I sold half of my DANG calls at $22.7 for a 140% gain; sold 1/4 of my stock at $22.7...probably should have sold everything. The QIHU IPO will either still money away from DANG or put it in the headlights...I can't decide which it will do. I still get a feeling that DANG is going to $27.
Fading The Faders newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5417 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:55 #82644 (a) I'm pretty comfortable holding GE/CSCO/INTC/WFC. The expectation would be a spike in prices high enough to convince holders to take profits- only to spike even higher the next day. Another reason to hold through price spikes either way: Increasing odds of rotation into large-cap value.
(b) SPX (or OAKBX, in my case). I'm almost inclined to day trade the fading game ahead of both EOQ and Payrolls. The short fuses on display right now makes it likely traders try to fade each other, starting right about now. Any takes on daily closes for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday?
Up, down, up Down, up, up Up, up, down Or my current bias- up, Up, UP
The RBY bargain here will reveal itself as gold approaches $1570, Adamson isn't doing much of anything to entice me into adding at the moment though...
Yeah, I know, but I figure he isn't going to "waste" the news he is going to release on drilling etc until after the air is cleared. Its not pretty, but I guess that's also what makes it an opportunity when you see all the retail from yahoo dumping in panic. Unless something much worse happens, all those who were prone to panic dump, did it yesterday afternoon. It made for a decent volume spike for the last couple hours, but the fact that it didn't turn into a large volume selloff says to me we are running out of willing sellers, FINALLY, hence my taking a risk and selling physical.
I too think gold's value will rise, but I think the percentage increase will be dwarfed by the impact that same rise will have on the future profitability of RBY.
SMH on the watchlist newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5418 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:14 #82650 If semis continue diving, then Down would be a good guess for today.
Mark > yeah, I personally think they're playing games with DANG but who knows. For example, why would they assign a PT of $50 on YOKU (which equates to a valuation of over 150 times 2013 earnings), yet only assign a 22 PT on DANG? Both are in very competitive spaces.
I actually decided to add back 1/2 of the shs I sold in DANG at $21.96 just now, thinking this is nothing more than another shakeout. I revised my sell stop limit to $21.1, which is below the bull flag area that the stock built on Monday.
If you believe the jobs picture is getting better like I do and you think the market will continue to go up, then you should focus on stocks that are hurting now because of a weak economy but are tethered to an improving jobs picture. At least that's what I'm thinking and why I'm long NLS.
I found another great Chinese company unjustifiably punished by accounting worries: CAAS. Here is their latest outlook for 2011:
"China Automotive Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:CAAS) ("CAAS" or the "Company"), a leading power steering components and systems supplier in China, today announced that its subsidiary, Wuhan Jielong Power Steering Co. Ltd., is receiving growing interest in its electric power steering ("EPS") systems in the large Chinese automotive market. For 2010, sales of the Company's EPS products reached approximately 40,000 units and CAAS expects its EPS sales will reach 150,000 units for 2011.
The Company designed and produced the first domestic EPS products in China. First shipments began in September 2009 to Suzuki with Changan Automobile Company ("Changan") also becoming a customer in mid-2010. Recent customers for the Company's EPS products are Dongnan Motor, FAW Haima Automobile and Great Wall Motors.
The Company also formed a joint venture ("JV") in early 2010 with the Beijing Hainachuan Auto Parts Co. Ltd. subsidiary of Beijing Automobile Industrial Holdings ("Beijing Auto") to design, develop and manufacture both hydraulic and electric power steering systems.  A new production facility for the JV is being completed with a design capacity for 300,000 units of hydraulic and 200,000 units of electric power steering systems plus parts.
Further, as previously announced, CAAS is building a new 120,000 square meter production plant in Wuhan to supplement the Jinzhou plant's annual EPS production capacity of 200,000 units.
Mr. Hanlin Chen, Chairman of China Automotive Systems, commented, "The increasing acceptance of our EPS products is another milestone in our path to become a leader in the large global steering market and demonstrates our growing R&D capabilities. EPS technology is environmentally safer and more fuel efficient than standard hydraulic units and we believe it will be a growth driver over the next few years."
Now, check out their 2-year price chart -- does it fit this outlook? I just sold 20 May $7.50 puts on CAAS at $0.4, for a total of $800. I think this is free money, as CAAS is now trading at $9.20 and I doubt they will drop below $7.50. If they do, this will be a bargain of the century: I will then sell all my CSCO and use that money to pay for CAAS.
Here is a short overview of the accounting issue at CAAS: http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2011/03/17/china-automotive-shares-plunged-what-you-need-to-k.aspx
"The Company previously announced that it is reviewing the complex accounting treatment of the Company's convertible notes issued on February 15, 2008. CAAS expects that the review will be completed during the second quarter of 2011, at which time the Company will file its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 and the amended quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2010 (which will include restated comparative financial statements for the respective periods of 2009) and an amended annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
The notification letter was received on March 17, 2011. Pursuant to the NASDAQ listing standards, CAAS has 60 calendar days, or until May 16, 2011, to submit a plan to NASDAQ to regain compliance with the NASDAQ Listing Rules. If NASDAQ accepts the Company's plan of compliance, NASDAQ may grant an extension of up to 180 calendar days from the due date of the annual report on Form 10K, or until September 16, 2011, to regain compliance."
Re: SMH on the watchlist newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5419 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:18 #82669 (in reply to #82650) Damn, should have kept buying the dips.
Re: Fading The Faders/ Taking The Bait> GE Closed @ 20.20 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5420 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:24 #82671 (in reply to #82644) GE will undoubtedly move higher from here.
PXP- Damn. Looks like there is serious concerns over their gulf lease holdings value. I think I/CS have this right, $48pt. However, flat on an up day like this is fugly. It's a large position for me so I can't let it move to far away. Green right now, but barely.
With such great bargains in the market right now (ECUXF, RBY, WATG, CAAS), I decided to make more cash potentially available for taking advantage of them, and so I just covered at $175 one April $70 put on MON that I sold a few weeks ago at $315.
Re: Weird day today newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5421 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:47 #82672 (in reply to #82658) jack- It is unusual to watch the SOX sell off on a day like this. Gives me pause as well...
Re: Weird day today/ Revised take for Thursday/Friday Submitted by 2nd_ave (5423 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:58 #82673 (in reply to #82672) jack- I don't about you, but if we close up +90-100 on the DJIA today (with or without the SOX), then I think there's a good chance Thursday and/or Friday close down.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread Re: Weird day today/ Revised take for Thursday/Friday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5423 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:59 #82674 (in reply to #82672) I feel strongly enough about it that I had to say it twice....
I almost pulled the trigger on that IPO today. I'd never done one and Schwab had shares. The only reason I didn't was the 30 day lock up period. I could have sold at anytime, but would not be allowed to do another IPO for 3 months. Like that would really matter. Crap.
RB- Cool. Now I wont be talking to myself! MOG loves the management and their W. Texas holdings. I guess the question is the lease value. GL, we will know soon.
Alright sold my DANG at $21.78. Kind of annoying with my trading on that but oh well. I also managed to fill a few SPY puts expiring Friday and puts on AAPL expiring Friday...tiny positions to protect my longs. Also sold my SPY from SPY 125. Now about 40% cash.
PXP AND MMR what a strange pair since I hate MMR and love PXP. Reminds me of a pair of sisters I use to date that actually had my same last name. No they were not related to me. Boy you guys are in the gutter today. Well one was good and one was evil. Guess which one I still think about?
Also, in case CAAS goes down to retest what seems like a capitulation low on March 23, I placed a buy limit order for 10 August $7.50 calls on CAAS at $1.50 each.
The Case-Shiller data that came out yesterday showed that in January 2011 condo prices in SF dropped to an 8-year low level not seen since January 2003:
"David - Good luck on those man...every day we're seeing a new blowup in the China small caps but there has to be some worth buying."
TOF -- I think EVERY Chinese small cap that isn't obviously engaged in some fraudulent business is worth buying now, since all such companies will rebound hard once the fraudulent ones are exposed and this whole issue is forgotten.
David - I totally agree...I'd recommend taking a long look at SOKF. I know one of the big shareholders in the company and actually have talked to their CEO...they're very happy with the performance of the company per my last conversation with him about a year ago. Stock has terrible volume but look at those financials man. Valuation is silly.
OMAHA, Neb. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- March 30, 2011 -- This press release will be unusual. First, I will write it almost as if it were a letter. Second, it will contain two sets of facts, both about Dave Sokol , Chairman of several Berkshire subsidiaries. Late in the day on March 28 , I received a letter of resignation from Dave, delivered by his assistant. His reasons were as follows: "As I have mentioned to you in the past, it is my goal to utilize the time remaining in my career to invest my family's resources in such a way as to create enduring equity value and hopefully an enterprise which will provide opportunity for my descendents and funding for my philanthropic interests. I have no more detailed plan than this because my obligations from Berkshire Hathaway have been my first and only business priority." I had not asked for his resignation, and it came as a surprise to me. Twice before, most recently two or so years ago, Dave had talked to me of resigning. In each case he had given me the same reasons that he laid out in his Monday letter. Both times, I and other Board members persuaded him to stay. Berkshire is far more valuable today because we were successful in those efforts. Dave's contributions have been extraordinary. At MidAmerican, he and Greg Abel have delivered the best performance of any managers in the public utility field. At NetJets, Dave resurrected an operation that was destined for bankruptcy, absent Berkshire's deep pockets. He has been of enormous help in the operation of Johns Manville, where he installed new management some years ago and oversaw major change. Finally, Dave brought the idea for purchasing Lubrizol to me on either January 14 or 15. Initially, I was unimpressed, but after his report of a January 25 talk with its CEO, James Hambrick , I quickly warmed to the idea. Though the offer to purchase was entirely my decision, supported by Berkshire's Board on March 13 , it would not have occurred without Dave's early efforts. That brings us to our second set of facts. In our first talk about Lubrizol , Dave mentioned that he owned stock in the company. It was a passing remark and I did not ask him about the date of his purchase or the extent of his holdings.
David > very true...jeez I didn't realize WATG is trading at 4 times earnings. craziness. price to cash flows they aren't that cheap though.
Guys - take a look at RUTH (Ruth Chris Steakhouse)...I made nice coin on them back in late 2009. they diluted shares quite a bit in 2010 to help pay off debt. Debt went from $122 Million to $50 MM in 2010. based on 43 Million shares outstanding the company is valued at about $219 MM. They generated $36 Million in free cash flow in 2010. So P/FCF is 6 times, which is very cheap. Additionally they have about 15% shares short. I don't have a position but the company looks VERY interesting.
RUTH a break of $5.50 and I like. Likewise a break of 4.50 and I like short. Could play S+R ping pong between,very volatile. Hope you don't mind me asking, but does Ruth have a sister?
SOKF: I just read their latest September 2010 investor presentation and was pretty amazed by their steady 50% growth in profit for the past 5 years. I just placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares at $4.01.
TOF- I agree that the financials look good here. I saw some talk about the SOX too. Looks like we are in the process of a V bottom. SO... in my book, every index will head right back up to old highs. So, if and when the semis reach old highs, the S+P will probably be in the 1380 ballpark. I get really concerned when the semis are outperforming and extended to the upside. That's always a clue to me that a rally is about to breakdown.
I think we're clear to climb to 1350 by Friday.
ReplyDeleteNot without a little turbulence, of course.
ReplyDeleteXLF chart. I see a possible head and shoulder. That pattern is wrong so often that it cold be a buy signal. All the rat tails on the candles the past too weeks indicate people are buying any dips. Looks strong even though the experts would say it is in a neutral trend. I do like pure plays on consumer credit DEBT. DSC, and COF are certainly not in a neutral range. Can you think of any others that have not left the station.
ReplyDeleterb- It's a buy signal. Not b/c I know anything about patterns. We're going up, bro.
ReplyDeleteI meant DFS not DSC. Cheak out DCS a nice find on a mistaken ticker. And it goes without saying I meant COULD instead of COLD (which ILLINI is probably feeling right now.)
ReplyDeleteFor crying out loud, man. DFS, not DSC? And now DCS? Try typing my way- take a hit, mellow out, listen to some music, get your thoughts together..then type.
ReplyDelete2nd. I am going to sit right next to you at the table baby. If you think we got a warm table I'm going to play a line spread until we are 7 out.
ReplyDeleteYour right I'm too tense with these D tickers. Coltrain on the Blue train ought to be the right medicine.
ReplyDeleteI should advise Mark to drive the same way. Take a hit, mellow out, listen to some music..then sleep off the urge to put the pedal to the metal.
ReplyDeleteSo the Nikkei has now erased all of yesterday's opening drop and then some.
ReplyDeleteRe-entered UNG 11.23 after hours. Looks like there's quite a bit of support in the 11.00-11.20 area. I was looking for a pullback, but 11.91 to 11.15 within 24 hours? I'm a buyer....
ReplyDeleteRobear-
ReplyDeleteI'm with you regarding head and shoulders charts. The decline after the "real" h+s patterns happens so fast and is so steep that the pattern is only evident in hindsight. When everyone is talking about the pattern as it emerges, it rarely materializes and could be considered a buy signal w/ everyone being defensive.
Kind of like the head and shoulder pattern in EEM over the past 6 months. The right shoulder slowly started rolling over, then bam! Its off to the races...
jesse- If we all pretty much agree that we're headed higher 'later' this year, then the question becomes- 'Why would the market have any interest in 'respecting' technicals/precendents? Why not hit those numbers in a manner that completely frustrates traders?' ie, exactly as its moving now?
ReplyDeleteJesse absolutely right! Great pattern in hindsight. I always know when I should of bought.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on MRVL?
ReplyDeletehttp://elite.finviz.com/publish/032911/SPYc0wl2023.png
ReplyDeleteWeekly SPY chart. Notice the failed summer of 2010 H/S very prominent. This chart is so bullish looking, 2nd might be setting his sights too low. Technically speaking were in a huge bullmarket!
igor- westcoaster posted the following link re CSCO. The author lists both CSCO and MRVL on his list of 'Five Insanely Cheap Tech Stocks:'
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/4nnssqo
Once again, real estate owned by the sewer dwelling beltway insiders club outperformed every other housing market in the country. Wonder if NYC didn't come in a very close second...
ReplyDeleteGo figure ;)
Hmm, I finally watched a documentary on Chernobel this evening as a refresher on the status of the largest nuclear power accident until Fukushima.
ReplyDeleteMan, it going to be another 30,000 years before half of the ceisium is decayed, there are completely dead pine forests in the vicinity where background radiation remains 500x normal and radioactive dust is still leaking out of the makeshift reactor containment enclosure that was constructed.
Maybe one aspect of the Chernobyl accident that spared the area more grief was that the reactor actually blew up and spewed it's contents into the wind blowing over most of Europe (Poland/Germany,etc.) and so there weren't hundreds of tons of fuel left standing in the reactor with no mechanism for removing it such as is the case in Japan.
RBY - What an unbelievable pooch screw, management has declared an information blackout and is just sitting there not providing any clarity on the securities commission investigation while rumors are leaking and imaginations running wild about what must be going on behind closed doors.
ReplyDeleteI predict that this disaster will devastate Japan for decades. As for the rest of us and the Earth taken as a whole, it's just another nail in the coffin. Meantime, I am not buying Japan or anything nuclear. That includes sushi.
ReplyDeleteI hope not Illini. How are you?
ReplyDeleteCP- Did RBY say that, or are you connecting some dots? I looked really hard at it today.
ReplyDeleteillini is right, it is another nail in the coffin if nuclear can't be made fail-safe. By failsafe, I mean in all aspects, inclusive of all byproducts and not subject to human error, mechanical problems or design oversight.
ReplyDelete30,000 years cesium half-life is 600 human generations before 50% of decay is complete.
Seriously, that's not renewable or sustainable, it's more akin to suicide. It's time to make the investment and work out all of the kinks before going forward or just move on to another technology.
It might be possible using thorium or some other stable and recyclable fuel blends if there weren't special interests involved.
Until then I'll remain in the disapproval camp, the third time's a charm. I really think this one's dead meat after whatever hopeful bounce that may or may not occur and a whole lot more wasted government subsidy gets thrown at it.
RBY - Here it is:
ReplyDelete"*The reader is cautioned that the Company’s recently filed NI 43-101 technical report containing its Phoenix Gold Project mineral resource and geological potential estimates for the F2 Gold System, is under review by the British Columbia Securities Commission and the Company expects to file an amended technical report for the Project. The Company will make a timely announcement if any material changes to the estimates result from an amended report*."
And this:
"Amended NI 43-101 Technical Report for Rubicon's Phoenix Gold Project
02/14/2011
VANCOUVER, Feb. 14 /CNW/ - (RMX:TSX | RBY:NYSE-AMEX) (the "Company") announced today that, as a result of a review by the British Columbia Securities Commission of the Company's recently filed NI 43-101 technical report containing its Phoenix Gold Project mineral resource and geological potential estimates for the F2 Gold System, the Company expects to file an amended technical report for the Project. The Company will make a timely announcement if any material changes to the estimates result from an amended report.
RUBICON MINERALS CORPORATION
"David W. Adamson"
President & CEO "
Your illustrious beltway insiders remain hard at work helping themselves:
ReplyDelete"FDA chemist, son charged with insider trading- AP
A chemist with the Food and Drug Administration and his son were arrested Tuesday on charges of running a $2.27 million insider trading scheme."
Hmmm...Thanks CP.
ReplyDeleteHow do you live around those vipers!
KKR - Man, what a beautiful chart, would never have believed it would do so well.
ReplyDelete"How do you live around those vipers! "
ReplyDeleteThe key is to not live among them. They're so wrapped up in love with themselves they have no idea I'm here watching them.
Their philosophy involves begging for forgiveness once caught as opposed to first asking for permission, in all they do.
Following a guilty verdict they'll tell the judge they're not sorry because they just know they did nothing wrong. As if they might convince the judge she/he made a mistake. It's the most incredible concept of selfishness you'll ever experience.
Team IMMR a little 7% pop today. Were you not talking about that yesterday. F'n' PANL new parabolic highs. Why don't we just forget about OIL and Gold and Banks and just buy F'n'screens. Like DUHHH. The whole world is going to be one big fuken touch screen. Right?
ReplyDeleteWith that rant out of the way HERO and DNR are setting up nicely here. Maybe second impulse higher is in the cards.
I just came back from an overnight ski trip to Tahoe (I think that was the last chance to ski in a decent snow, before it starts melting), and I see that REDF did have a nice pop today. Yesterday I sensed that the pop was near, since REDF had two morning shakeouts in a row that were bought aggressively, and so the stock was obviously not going down.
ReplyDeleteI will let REDF "run" now. However, in order to make sure that I don't "let a profit turn into a loss," I just placed a sell stop limit order at $6.98/$6.9 for the 1K shares I purchased at $6.98 last week.
2nd - Thanks, that article brought MRVL to my mind. The only question is how much one trusts the author of that article
ReplyDeleteAs for RBY, I just placed a sell limit order for 10 May $5 puts on RBY at the asking price of $0.9. The current uncertainty about their resource size is totally irrelevant with respect to their cashflow for the first 10 years of the mine life, and hence it is just a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteBought more RBY on margin again at the close yesterday (4.52 to 4.54), sold physical just now to pay for it. Adding at a rate of $25 to $50k per day anything under $4.75. Determining the qty to buy that way allows me to add progressively more shares when the price is lower.
ReplyDeleteMy wife is not happy. Take no risk, get no reward I replied. Most of the millions we have are from similar risks taken when the market was pricing a stock irrationally out of fear. In this cas the mini-panic in RBY was caused by a yahoo post where they say the total estimate will probably get reduced. Well, DUH! That's why the price is already down by about 1/3. But you have to remember there are 9 months of drilling results not included, too. And long term, I'll bet it turns out the 4 mm oz number is way low, but it will be years before that is seen.
Yes, I'm probably insane...
NKE - Initial position @ $76.33
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
When the market is at an inflection point, a down day is going to look ominous and an up day is going to look great. Therefore, it's important not to get too excited one way or the other. With that said, I am encouraged by the fact that the market ended higher on Tuesday, especially after faking out lower first.
One day at a time though. A few big up days would be a major positive. It would have the market closing in on new highs.
Conversely, a few big down days would not be a good thing.
If the market continues higher, we'll go back to focusing exclusively on the long side. In the meantime, continue to look to squeeze off a short or two but ONLY on entries. So far, this has kept us out of trouble.
Again, there have some pockets of strength here and there. So, we could end up with a market where we play both sides. Hopefully though (I know, I said hope), the overall market will continue higher so we won't have to bother with shorts.
NKE - 4/16 MaxPain is $80
ReplyDeleteI sold half of my DANG calls at $22.7 for a 140% gain; sold 1/4 of my stock at $22.7...probably should have sold everything. The QIHU IPO will either still money away from DANG or put it in the headlights...I can't decide which it will do. I still get a feeling that DANG is going to $27.
ReplyDeleteI also sold my FFIV at $100 from yesterday.
Fading The Faders newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5417 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:55 #82644
ReplyDelete(a) I'm pretty comfortable holding GE/CSCO/INTC/WFC. The expectation would be a spike in prices high enough to convince holders to take profits- only to spike even higher the next day. Another reason to hold through price spikes either way: Increasing odds of rotation into large-cap value.
(b) SPX (or OAKBX, in my case). I'm almost inclined to day trade the fading game ahead of both EOQ and Payrolls. The short fuses on display right now makes it likely traders try to fade each other, starting right about now. Any takes on daily closes for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday?
Up, down, up
Down, up, up
Up, up, down
Or my current bias- up, Up, UP
Bought 5 x JDSU May $17 calls at $3.65
ReplyDeleteCLNE bonner?
ReplyDeleteCB - You may be insane, but you're not inane.
ReplyDeleteThe RBY bargain here will reveal itself as gold approaches $1570, Adamson isn't doing much of anything to entice me into adding at the moment though...
Stops in place on DANG at $21.5...while I don't want to miss a big winner, I don't want to let gains slip away.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Glad you posted that. I would have thought it'd pop on that other IPO today that is up 100%. GS has a PT of 22 for DANG.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I know, but I figure he isn't going to "waste" the news he is going to release on drilling etc until after the air is cleared. Its not pretty, but I guess that's also what makes it an opportunity when you see all the retail from yahoo dumping in panic. Unless something much worse happens, all those who were prone to panic dump, did it yesterday afternoon. It made for a decent volume spike for the last couple hours, but the fact that it didn't turn into a large volume selloff says to me we are running out of willing sellers, FINALLY, hence my taking a risk and selling physical.
ReplyDeleteI too think gold's value will rise, but I think the percentage increase will be dwarfed by the impact that same rise will have on the future profitability of RBY.
Added 2 more JDSU $17 May calls at $3.55
ReplyDeleteSMH on the watchlist newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5418 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:14 #82650
ReplyDeleteIf semis continue diving, then Down would be a good guess for today.
Mark > yeah, I personally think they're playing games with DANG but who knows. For example, why would they assign a PT of $50 on YOKU (which equates to a valuation of over 150 times 2013 earnings), yet only assign a 22 PT on DANG? Both are in very competitive spaces.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Which way will it go? Obvious dbl top or breakout? Inquiring minds want to know!
ReplyDeleteI actually decided to add back 1/2 of the shs I sold in DANG at $21.96 just now, thinking this is nothing more than another shakeout. I revised my sell stop limit to $21.1, which is below the bull flag area that the stock built on Monday.
ReplyDeleteAAPL?
ReplyDeleteAAPL > every time i want to go long or go long i get worried about the Jobs health impact..
ReplyDeleteBought back the rest of my DANG at $21.86...now fully invested again with a stop limit at $21.1.
One of these days NLS is gonna wake up.
There goes $8K in profits on the inventory report.
ReplyDeleteWhich inventory report are you referring to?
ReplyDeleteprobably oil
ReplyDeletebought today's RBY allotment at 4.49 to 4.52
ReplyDeleteYep. Oil. Thing is though, these E&P guys will make a killing @ anything near $100.
ReplyDeleteAlready gained back $4K .
On the other hand, it does look like some rotation into financials.
At the close!
BEXP - Doesn't look to me like it slipped back on the inventory report... It gained, if anything.
ReplyDeleteIs the UN going to send arms in for the Ghaduffi rebels? It's such a back and forth situation there.
XLF looks great. I had a sneaky feeling that this was going to pop but didn't act. Could have been a good options play. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteI know it sounds really dumb but I think BAC actually looks good.
LNG HERO
ReplyDeleteScrew oil we need to import more horses.
ReplyDeleteIf you believe the jobs picture is getting better like I do and you think the market will continue to go up, then you should focus on stocks that are hurting now because of a weak economy but are tethered to an improving jobs picture. At least that's what I'm thinking and why I'm long NLS.
ReplyDeleteLNG SRZ Were not getting any younger.
ReplyDeleteI found another great Chinese company unjustifiably punished by accounting worries: CAAS. Here is their latest outlook for 2011:
ReplyDelete"China Automotive Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:CAAS) ("CAAS" or the "Company"), a leading power steering components and systems supplier in China, today announced that its subsidiary, Wuhan Jielong Power Steering Co. Ltd., is receiving growing interest in its electric power steering ("EPS") systems in the large Chinese automotive market. For 2010, sales of the Company's EPS products reached approximately 40,000 units and CAAS expects its EPS sales will reach 150,000 units for 2011.
The Company designed and produced the first domestic EPS products in China. First shipments began in September 2009 to Suzuki with Changan Automobile Company ("Changan") also becoming a customer in mid-2010. Recent customers for the Company's EPS products are Dongnan Motor, FAW Haima Automobile and Great Wall Motors.
The Company also formed a joint venture ("JV") in early 2010 with the Beijing Hainachuan Auto Parts Co. Ltd. subsidiary of Beijing Automobile Industrial Holdings ("Beijing Auto") to design, develop and manufacture both hydraulic and electric power steering systems.  A new production facility for the JV is being completed with a design capacity for 300,000 units of hydraulic and 200,000 units of electric power steering systems plus parts.
Further, as previously announced, CAAS is building a new 120,000 square meter production plant in Wuhan to supplement the Jinzhou plant's annual EPS production capacity of 200,000 units.
Mr. Hanlin Chen, Chairman of China Automotive Systems, commented, "The increasing acceptance of our EPS products is another milestone in our path to become a leader in the large global steering market and demonstrates our growing R&D capabilities. EPS technology is environmentally safer and more fuel efficient than standard hydraulic units and we believe it will be a growth driver over the next few years."
Now, check out their 2-year price chart -- does it fit this outlook? I just sold 20 May $7.50 puts on CAAS at $0.4, for a total of $800. I think this is free money, as CAAS is now trading at $9.20 and I doubt they will drop below $7.50. If they do, this will be a bargain of the century: I will then sell all my CSCO and use that money to pay for CAAS.
Here is a short overview of the accounting issue at CAAS: http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2011/03/17/china-automotive-shares-plunged-what-you-need-to-k.aspx
ReplyDeleteThey hired PwC to resolve it.
Here is a more complete coverage:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Automotive-Systems-prnews-2268303994.html?x=0&.v=1
"The Company previously announced that it is reviewing the complex accounting treatment of the Company's convertible notes issued on February 15, 2008. CAAS expects that the review will be completed during the second quarter of 2011, at which time the Company will file its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 and the amended quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2010 (which will include restated comparative financial statements for the respective periods of 2009) and an amended annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
The notification letter was received on March 17, 2011. Pursuant to the NASDAQ listing standards, CAAS has 60 calendar days, or until May 16, 2011, to submit a plan to NASDAQ to regain compliance with the NASDAQ Listing Rules. If NASDAQ accepts the Company's plan of compliance, NASDAQ may grant an extension of up to 180 calendar days from the due date of the annual report on Form 10K, or until September 16, 2011, to regain compliance."
2nd - great call on market direction today! What is up with semis?
ReplyDeleteRe: SMH on the watchlist newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5419 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:18 #82669 (in reply to #82650)
ReplyDeleteDamn, should have kept buying the dips.
Re: Fading The Faders/ Taking The Bait> GE Closed @ 20.20 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5420 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:24 #82671 (in reply to #82644)
ReplyDeleteGE will undoubtedly move higher from here.
RAX. New 52 week high/all time high/Huge volume/ +7.40%....And I traded it back @ $6.
ReplyDeleteLNG SGI
ReplyDeleteWhatcha mean RB? Hero is a HERO.
ReplyDeletePXP- Damn. Looks like there is serious concerns over their gulf lease holdings value. I think I/CS have this right, $48pt. However, flat on an up day like this is fugly. It's a large position for me so I can't let it move to far away. Green right now, but barely.
With such great bargains in the market right now (ECUXF, RBY, WATG, CAAS), I decided to make more cash potentially available for taking advantage of them, and so I just covered at $175 one April $70 put on MON that I sold a few weeks ago at $315.
ReplyDeleteRe: Weird day today newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5421 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:47 #82672 (in reply to #82658)
ReplyDeletejack- It is unusual to watch the SOX sell off on a day like this. Gives me pause as well...
PXP- Damn, I just like the chart way to much here to bail.
ReplyDeleteRe: Weird day today/ Revised take for Thursday/Friday
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5423 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:58 #82673 (in reply to #82672)
jack- I don't about you, but if we close up +90-100 on the DJIA today (with or without the SOX), then I think there's a good chance Thursday and/or Friday close down.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Re: Weird day today/ Revised take for Thursday/Friday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5423 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:59 #82674 (in reply to #82672)
I feel strongly enough about it that I had to say it twice....
MMR is the AUY of the oil patch. Why do I watch those 2 POS's? They never move.
ReplyDeleteLong PXP misery loves company. Don't mean to jinx the trade.
ReplyDeleteI almost pulled the trigger on that IPO today. I'd never done one and Schwab had shares. The only reason I didn't was the 30 day lock up period. I could have sold at anytime, but would not be allowed to do another IPO for 3 months. Like that would really matter. Crap.
ReplyDeleteRB- Cool. Now I wont be talking to myself! MOG loves the management and their W. Texas holdings. I guess the question is the lease value. GL, we will know soon.
RB- I was trying to send you an email. Don't I have it?
ReplyDeleteRB- Keep an eye on MMR. They seem to be paired with PXP right or wrong.
ReplyDeleteI just sent you an E_MAIL
ReplyDeleteClosing OAKBX at end of day newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5424 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:46 #82680
ReplyDeletePz- You probably figured this out ahead of time.
Alright sold my DANG at $21.78. Kind of annoying with my trading on that but oh well. I also managed to fill a few SPY puts expiring Friday and puts on AAPL expiring Friday...tiny positions to protect my longs. Also sold my SPY from SPY 125. Now about 40% cash.
ReplyDeletePXP AND MMR what a strange pair since I hate MMR and love PXP. Reminds me of a pair of sisters I use to date that actually had my same last name. No they were not related to me. Boy you guys are in the gutter today. Well one was good and one was evil. Guess which one I still think about?
ReplyDeleteRB- I know, I know!!!
ReplyDeleteAlso, in case CAAS goes down to retest what seems like a capitulation low on March 23, I placed a buy limit order for 10 August $7.50 calls on CAAS at $1.50 each.
ReplyDeleteTo make my life even more interesting, just before close I sold 20 more $7.50 puts on CAAS, this time with August expiration for $1900 total.
ReplyDeleteNice breakout for HK.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Good luck on those man...every day we're seeing a new blowup in the China small caps but there has to be some worth buying.
ReplyDeleteThe Case-Shiller data that came out yesterday showed that in January 2011 condo prices in SF dropped to an 8-year low level not seen since January 2003:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
"David - Good luck on those man...every day we're seeing a new blowup in the China small caps but there has to be some worth buying."
ReplyDeleteTOF -- I think EVERY Chinese small cap that isn't obviously engaged in some fraudulent business is worth buying now, since all such companies will rebound hard once the fraudulent ones are exposed and this whole issue is forgotten.
David - I totally agree...I'd recommend taking a long look at SOKF. I know one of the big shareholders in the company and actually have talked to their CEO...they're very happy with the performance of the company per my last conversation with him about a year ago. Stock has terrible volume but look at those financials man. Valuation is silly.
ReplyDeleteOMAHA, Neb. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- March 30, 2011 --
ReplyDeleteThis press release will be unusual. First, I will write it almost as if it were a letter. Second, it will contain two sets of facts, both about Dave Sokol , Chairman of several Berkshire subsidiaries.
Late in the day on March 28 , I received a letter of resignation from Dave, delivered by his assistant. His reasons were as follows:
"As I have mentioned to you in the past, it is my goal to utilize the time remaining in my career to invest my family's resources in such a way as to create enduring equity value and hopefully an enterprise which will provide opportunity for my descendents and funding for my philanthropic interests. I have no more detailed plan than this because my obligations from Berkshire Hathaway have been my first and only business priority."
I had not asked for his resignation, and it came as a surprise to me. Twice before, most recently two or so years ago, Dave had talked to me of resigning. In each case he had given me the same reasons that he laid out in his Monday letter. Both times, I and other Board members persuaded him to stay. Berkshire is far more valuable today because we were successful in those efforts.
Dave's contributions have been extraordinary. At MidAmerican, he and Greg Abel have delivered the best performance of any managers in the public utility field. At NetJets, Dave resurrected an operation that was destined for bankruptcy, absent Berkshire's deep pockets. He has been of enormous help in the operation of Johns Manville, where he installed new management some years ago and oversaw major change.
Finally, Dave brought the idea for purchasing Lubrizol to me on either January 14 or 15. Initially, I was unimpressed, but after his report of a January 25 talk with its CEO, James Hambrick , I quickly warmed to the idea. Though the offer to purchase was entirely my decision, supported by Berkshire's Board on March 13 , it would not have occurred without Dave's early efforts.
That brings us to our second set of facts. In our first talk about Lubrizol , Dave mentioned that he owned stock in the company. It was a passing remark and I did not ask him about the date of his purchase or the extent of his holdings.
TOF: what is so silly about the valuation of SOKF? Their forward PE for 2011 is about 50% larger than that of WATG. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid > very true...jeez I didn't realize WATG is trading at 4 times earnings. craziness. price to cash flows they aren't that cheap though.
ReplyDeleteGuys - take a look at RUTH (Ruth Chris Steakhouse)...I made nice coin on them back in late 2009. they diluted shares quite a bit in 2010 to help pay off debt. Debt went from $122 Million to $50 MM in 2010. based on 43 Million shares outstanding the company is valued at about $219 MM. They generated $36 Million in free cash flow in 2010. So P/FCF is 6 times, which is very cheap. Additionally they have about 15% shares short. I don't have a position but the company looks VERY interesting.
RUTH a break of $5.50 and I like. Likewise a break of 4.50 and I like short. Could play S+R ping pong between,very volatile. Hope you don't mind me asking, but does Ruth have a sister?
ReplyDeleteSOKF: I just read their latest September 2010 investor presentation and was pretty amazed by their steady 50% growth in profit for the past 5 years. I just placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares at $4.01.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteTOF- I agree that the financials look good here. I saw some talk about the SOX too. Looks like we are in the process of a V bottom. SO... in my book, every index will head right back up to old highs. So, if and when the semis reach old highs, the S+P will probably be in the 1380 ballpark. I get really concerned when the semis are outperforming and extended to the upside. That's always a clue to me that a rally is about to breakdown.
ReplyDelete