Thursday, March 3, 2011
3/4/11 Buy on Weakness/Sell on Strength v Buy-and-Hold on Strength
If you could read my mind, love,
What a tale my thoughts could tell.
Just like an old time movie,
'Bout a ghost from a wishing well.
In a castle dark or a fortress strong,
With chains upon my feet.
You know that ghost is me.
And I will never be set free
As long as I'm a ghost that you can't see.
Is it possible to read the collective mind behind market moves? I'd probably ask Vad.
For someone who normally buys on negativity, today's bet on higher prices was a different strategy. Yet it did not feel as if I were chasing- more like sweeping snow off the runway for takeoff.
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Having said that, we may well sell off tomorrow. That's OK.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, we may rock right past the 2/18 highs...
ReplyDeleteCrap! An hour ago I made a long post about the extreme drop in GTY over the past 2 days and it just disappeared! Here is the bloomberg story about it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/getty-realty-drops-most-in-three-years-after-biggest-tenant-gets-new-owner.html?cmpid=yhoo
I think people are panicking here over nothing (delay in the monthly rent payment due to the change of gas station operators). The new operator of gas stations WILL pay rent to Getty, and even if the terms of the lease are reworked a little, I doubt it will impact that cash flow stream for GTY. Look at their steady growth of dividends since 2002: they rose smoothly from $0.41/quarter to $0.48 per quarter, and not even the 2008-2009 mess could derail that growth.
I bought 500 shares after hours at $21.90 and will sell puts on GTY if the stock drops more tomorrow. At $21.90, the dividends are 9% per year, which is a sweet deal in today's world.
TOF: what does your accounting sense tell you about the impact of this change of operators on the cashflow of GTY? Here is the link to their preliminary financial results as of Feb 15:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110215005736/en/Getty-Realty-Corp.-Announces-Preliminary-Financial-Results
Portfolio +5.7% today thanks in large part to DANG. Portfolio is just below all time highs...still think about missing out on RAS from time to time. Mark...it's all your fault.
ReplyDeleteI'll take a +5.7% one-day return any dang day!
ReplyDeleteFar 'Just call me Dave' Fetched is probably sitting on double-digit gains YTD.
ReplyDeleteIt's been an amazing two years (remember March '09?). The market has confounded just about every traditional trading strategy. And will likely continue to do so, on its way to SPX 1500 and beyond.
ReplyDeleteHot DANG, that's GRRRRREEEEEAT! Yes, another Charlie Sheen tiger blood reference. ;)
ReplyDeleteBBY - Bait and switch again, just stopped by the local store to pick up a 6G phone and all they had were 4G phones.... :(
At what point does J6P give up and chase? Here's the thing- the market will easily rally another 7-10% on wake-up calls.
ReplyDeleteCharlie Sheen- I can think of two of his movies that I would actually recommend (and Wall Street isn't one of them): Lucas, and Platoon. Both came out in '86. All downhill from there.
ReplyDeleteWhat if jobs rockets the SPX past 1350 in a flash?
ReplyDeleteThe 2008-2011 Flash Crash
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5295 comments) on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:07 #80836
We've seen the one-day 'flash crash.' Is there any reason we can't have the 1500->667->1500 3-year version?
reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Re: The 2008-2011 Flash Crash newSubmitted by baz22 (1667 comments) on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:15 #80837 (in reply to #80836)
Fleck thinks its very possible...
"Las Vegas Churches accept gambling chips
ReplyDeleteTHIS MAY COME AS A SURPRISE TO THOSE OF YOU NOT LIVING IN LAS VEGAS, BUT THERE ARE MORE CATHOLIC CHURCHES THAN CASINOS.
NOT SURPRISINGLY, SOME WORSHIPERS AT SUNDAY SERVICES WILL GIVE CASINO CHIPS RATHER THAN CASH WHEN THE BASKET IS PASSED.
SINCE THEY GET CHIPS FROM MANY DIFFERENT CASINOS, THE CHURCHES HAVE DEVISED A METHOD TO COLLECT THE OFFERINGS..
THE CHURCHES SEND ALL THEIR COLLECTED CHIPS TO A NEARBY FRANCISCAN MONASTERY FOR SORTING AND THEN THE CHIPS ARE TAKEN TO THE CASINOS OF ORIGIN AND CASHED IN.
THIS IS DONE BY THE CHIP MONKS."
Did you see that one coming?
CRM - How much is CRM actually worth?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/03/02/crm-canaccord-ups-to-buy-170-price-target/?mod=yahoobarrons
Wow...Great. I spend the last 5 hours in a meeting, only to come 'home' and see TOF is taking cheap shots at me.
ReplyDeleteDavid- JPM also downgraded GTY to 22 2 days ago. FWIW.
"David- JPM also downgraded GTY to 22 2 days ago. FWIW."
ReplyDeleteYes, I know -- it was that same analyst mentioned in the bloomberg article I linked in my post. I think he was just being silly. In case there is a spike down in GTY in the morning while I am still asleep, I just placed a sell limit order for 5 April $22.50 puts for $2.50, so as to get another 500 shares at $20 (at that price, the $0.48 quarterly dividend will amount to 10% per year).
new post
ReplyDeleteRBY - Exited @ $5.15 to pay the electric bill and buy a tank of gas, options pain of $2.50 makes me too nervous...
ReplyDelete