So the 2009-11 rally now requires hits of QE2? That's OK with me. It's still a superstar, with likely more than a few new highs left before the tour ends.
Isn't the stock market reputed to be forward looking, with a 6 month outlook? If true it is predicting a QE3 unless one considers the recent pullback as the first sign of uncertainty.
Actually, the last time we had dinner, vb and I ordered beers. David ordered a sake. The waitress asked 'A glass, right?' David said, 'No, a bottle.' The waitress turned around and pointed to the shelf- 'You mean one of those?' There was a line of 1.8 L bottles. We all laughed.
I'm spending the evening with Jimmy Beam myself. Comcast is running a 1986 Christopher Walken/Sean Penn movie- At Close Range. I used to live for movies like that. Has it really been 25 years?
The only time I was in Menlo Park/Palo Alto was 1970 as a young engineer TDY on some small Army contract. It's amazing but I was on a cable car in SF and sat across from a guy that I knew from STL. Have not seen him since.
I have had much more travel time to LA and SD in my Army civilian career. Thats because of major contracts or subcontractors there on helicopter related stuff. When Hughes Helicopters won the contract for the Apache Attack helo and later moved to Mesa, AZ, I spent a lot of time in Phoenix. HH is now a part of Boeing.
I was an engineer and a helicopter guy for most of my career, which is a bit of a specialty. My degree is in Aeronautical Engineering from U of IL and I started on what we call fixed wing aircraft in St. Louis at what is now Boeing. Trading is a retirement passion for last 15 years but not a sustainer. I have learned a lot during that time including that the financial system is a house of cards.
Talking my book. This is piggy backing on 2nds prediction and what Team says about the effect of social media going public. I believe the infrastructure plays that are going to be needed to create the band width to run the exponential growth of cloud, social media and streaming video is the way to play it. Short term the fiber optic long term the wireless and satellite plays. How long will it be before our computers, TVS, PHONES are linking directly to a satellite or tower, instead of comcast? I really think this space will out perform commodities and precious metals. Give me an ounce of bandwidth. We could even see bubblicious late 90s type action in these stocks. With net flicks and facebook leading the way. My bold prediction. Facebook will have a market cap as large as Googles in five years.
I researched it 6 months ago and I could find no pure wireless bandwidth plays that were not private companies. I will look into this ALU thingy. ALU obviously cannot be a pure play on this right? Is this the same Lucent? I don't remember it being an ADR before. THis company use to have the highest volume in the entire market like 5 years ago. What have I missed?
A helicopter was flying around above Seattle when an electrical malfunction disabled all of the aircraft's electronic navigation and communications equipment. Due to the clouds and haze, the pilot could not determine the helicopter's position and course to steer to the airport.
The pilot saw a tall building, flew toward it, circled, drew a handwritten sign, and held it in the helicopter's window. The pilot's sign said 'WHERE AM I?' in large letters.
People in the tall building quickly responded to the aircraft, drew a large sign, and held it in a building window. Their sign said 'YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER.'
The pilot smiled, waved, looked at his map, determined the course to steer to SEATAC airport, and landed safely.
After they were on the ground, the copilot asked the pilot how the 'YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER' sign helped determine their position.
The pilot responded 'I knew that had to be the MICROSOFT building because they gave me a technically correct, but completely useless answer.
RB - ALU was formed when Alcatel, the French telecom company, bought Lucent.
I'm not quite sure why they felt compelled to buy Lucent, I can't imagine it was for their semiconductor division, perhaps some of their patents?
Anyway, that was then and this is now...
I had a couple I'd been looking at till I realized the Federal government was more interested in waffling around and burning money with no benefit as opposed to worthy projects such as communications infrastructure investment:
THe wireless stocks that I can find SWKS GSAT ORBC HUGH IPHI Don't see the big picture. What is our communication going to look like in five years? It is not going to be specialized in specific areas. That is what these companies are doing. Voice or video ect is going to be all combined. Bundled. Just like the cable tv companies fuched the land lines. The wireless people are going to fuch the cable providers.
This is my impression. you are going to have a hybrid device that is going to be somewhere between a tablet and a phone. Probably a 6" by 6 " device that will be able to "dock" in to your TV, so your cloud can provide just the video content that you want to see. (netfliks?) It will dock into your Pc to provide your roving cloud internet service and your user profile. It will take the place of your cell phone, netbook, hard cover book and music player. Heck it may even take the place of your credit card! You dock your hybrid into the Restaurant confuser to pay your bill direct from your account no MC OR V FEES. PAYPAL looks like the leader to me. I think we just need to think who is going to provide the band width to make this possible and we will not have to worry about the price of oil or gold.
RB - I think the big picture is wireless devices rule the future. Add SPEC/VECO to your list?
Smart devices just keep getting smarter and smarter, the land line disappears just as the payphone has.
There'll be little terrestrial transponders mounted everywhere, every mile or so?
The folks who make them, install them, and operate them will make money?
And then you've got the hand-held side of the story as well, along with the manufacturing equipment .
I don't know who all the players are, how well they're positioned, or even if they're US based. Collectively, there must be thousands of them from chip devices, circuit boards, plastic cases display devices, RF devices, batteries, on and on....
CP- FTWR. Sure seems like it. Trading totally dried up. I guess there is something fundamentally wrong with the business model. I'm too afraid to trade it now.
2nd, this Joe Cocker album has always been my favorite one.
I grew up in Baltimore. My Uncle (neatest guy in the world) got me a 4 row ticket dead center to a Cocker concert. Well, Cocker was no were to be found and they pulled in this other band for awhile. About 2 hours later they push Cocker on stage and he drunk as a skunk, they found him drinking in a bar. The good news was while this was all going on I met this really hot chick sitting next to me and we started going out. She got really pissed off at her father when he would not get her a Porsche for her eighteenth birthday. How do you say Jewish Princess? LOL
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 17, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- FiberTower Corporation (Nasdaq:FTWR - News), a wireless backhaul services provider, announced that it recently received an early termination notice from one of its emerging carrier customers to terminate service at approximately 220 billing locations on February 28, 2011, and that the customer is reviewing approximately 50 additional locations for possible early termination by March 31, 2011. The monthly billing revenue generated by the service targeted for February termination is approximately $256,000 while the monthly billing revenue generated by locations being evaluated for March termination is approximately $88,000.
The Company recognizes that it is normal course of business for customers to make decisions to take down service based on their own particular circumstances or requirements. For this reason, the Company includes early termination liability in all of its contracts. The locations being terminated and being reviewed for termination represent a portion of the total FiberTower service contracted by this customer. Upon termination of all the services mentioned above, the customer's early termination charges will be approximately $2 million payable immediately.
FiberTower does not believe that these early terminations will have a material impact on the company's cash position in 2011.
BCOND - Electric power here keeps going out, I guess the power lines are nearly ka-put with all the wind, ice, rain, sleet and snow we've had hese past couple of years... And of course it's raining again today.
Maybe we need a bank or two of these Flintstone generators?
BWEN- I bought some Friday because I figured it was scraping bottom. Did not even know about earnings tomorrow. It's already a micro-cap. If it falls any more what will it be? A nano-cap? Or just plain bankrupt? Their balance sheet is too strong for that, I think.
Here is the problem right now in he market. It does not mean it can not go up for another year, it can do anything.
Here is an except by Seth Klarman for full article use the link.
In the markets of late 2008, everything was for sale as investors were caught in a contagion of selling due to panic, margin calls, and investor redemptions. Even while modeling very conservative scenarios, many securities could have been purchased at extremely attractive prices – if one had capital with which to buy them and the stamina to hold them in the face of falling prices. By late 2010, froth had returned to the markets, as investors with short-term relative performance orientations sought to keep up with the herd. Exuberant buying had replaced frenzied selling, as investors purchased securities offering limited returns even on far rosier economic assumptions.
BWEN - In that case, you might want to know, Friday morning they announced a change of their earnings date to the 15th. That might partially explain Friday's dour mood?
Considering the dollar hasn't shown much "safe harbor" strength through all the middle east unrest, in addition to all the other fundamentals (emerging market demand), high energy prices certainly should provide a tailwind for alternative energy?
PASS ID/Real ID - Does anyone know the current status? It would be interesting to know where this bill is and if it still contains the embeded devices originally described.
It might be a moneymaker for whomever manufacturers the devices, there was a small unsigned Intel skunkworks fab optimizing this manufacturing process technology south of San Jose that I used to visit fairly often...
I've had a pretty interesting digression into 'continuous care' facilities the past 6-8 weeks. Basically, my parents are planning to sell their home and move into one on the Peninsula. They decided to do it while they're still healthy and independent. I was against the idea at first, but after touring several facilities, I did a 180. In fact, the one they ended up buying into is one that I wouldn't mind living in myself, even today. It's more like a luxury hotel than anything else. I'll work on an extended post sometime in the next few weeks, as I expect many of you will face the same decision at some point. Right now, let's just say (a) it ain't as expensive as you might think, and (b) it's the future of post-retirement living- which has completely been reinvented.
2nd- Same thing here. My parents are a few years away still. The place they are looking at is in Oregon. They actually start out in individual 'bungalows' for lack of a better term. There is a pretty steep 'by-in', but the sooner you do it the cheaper it is. Both of them are very healthy. Hell, they'll probably out live me :)!
I think it's getting close to that point where we need to go with the Honda GX...this is becoming ridiculous with the price of oil and our country not providing the support for it. Here in SD we have several stations that offer up CNG (compressed nat gas) for $2.10 to $2.80/gallon versus $3.75 to $4/gallon for the regular unleaded stuff. If you can do it and if you drive say 30 gallons a month you can save up to $60/month or about $700 a year. If you go with the Phill (see description below), you can save yourself $90/month or about $1,100 a year...if you drive the car 140k miles then you can save $11,200 over the life of the car. Back out about $2,500 - $3,000 for the price of the Phill and you can save $8,200 to $8,700 with a Nat Gas hybrid car.
Here is a review from Consumer Reports:
The Driving Experience The GX drives similarly to a regular Civic, with a decent ride and sound handling, although the handling feels a little less crisp than in the EX version we've previously tested. The powertrain, with its five-speed automatic transmission, operates smoothly. The reduced engine power makes merging onto a highway a little slower than it is with the regular Civic. As in other Civics, road noise remains pronounced.
As for the economics of running a natural-gas engine, that varies from place to place. Prices per gasoline gallon-equivalent range from $1.65 to $3.49 right now. Some stations keep the subsidize cost comparable to the price of domestic natural gas while some artificially raise it to the price of diesel.
To fill up the GX, you connect a thin rubber hose from the dispensing pump to a snap-on receiving nozzle on the car. Then you rotate a valve and lift a handle on the pump. The process is just a little slower than pumping gasoline. Consumers in California and New York who have natural gas piped to their home can opt for the "Phill," a device that hooks up to a household natural gas line. Since it has to pressurize household gas to 3,600 psi, it takes the Phill several hours to replenish the GX's tank. The Phill costs about $3,500 to buy. A $1,000 federal tax credit defrays some of the cost, and additional subsidies of up to $2,000 are available from various environmental authorities. The ability to refuel overnight helps address the limitations with fuel pump availability. With a residential price of $12.50 for 1000 cubic feet of CNG and a conversion of 1 cubic foot =.012 gallon cost comes out to about a $1 a gallon.
275K for a 1-BR/den, you own it, and it's about 3k/month.
Compare that to another facility in the same city-> 300k buy-in, resident owns, and 7k/month.
Why the difference? The first has 220 units, and the facility takes 40% of any gains upon resale. The second has 65 units.
More comparisons- there is one in Palo Alto with a 900k buy-in for a 1BR, you DON'T own it, and 5k/month.
Note that the one my folks bought into is generally accepted as the premier facility in this area. They also had to 'pass' health exams, financial/asset thresholds, and personal interviews.
Takeaways- Find one that includes enough units/residents to simultaneously offer better services + lower fees, and is further able to reduce fees by taking a percentage of gains upon resale. We didn't see a problem with the resale percentage, as my folks are not exactly speculating on real estate with this purchase!
Too funny, we couldn't replace engineered halogenic freon refrigerents with light hydrocarbons such as propane b/c they were "too hazardous", and now we're considering using them in large quantities as a motor fuel.
You guys see crude futures hitting 106, gonna be some real pressure on the ES, guessing emea opens rough, will need to be up and rolling at 12 p.m. to catch the open....I think things are about to get really interesting
No. It will take care of you through Assisted Living (30 days available in the Assisted Living Unit at no charge, for any reason). If you need to move permanently into Assisted Living, there is an additional fee. If you need more than that, you'll need to move out. But apparently only 2-3% of residents will require that.
'Keeping one's head' is absolutely essential when trading. For me, that translates into closing positions should it become apparent we're headed back down, or holding positions should I feel there's too much panic.
btw, there is absolutely no reason why any of us should expect any more/less from the market than what we're accustomed to. We make the choice to play, knowing full well we'll be buffeted by the winds of change every single moment.
Rubicon stands behind their exchange filed reports, but they acknowledge that the mining consultant used two methodologies, and one apparently resulted in a slightly lower number of ounces of gold. They stand behind either calculation and state that if the exchange consultants require them to use the lower figure that already they have drilled enough to likely replace those oz in future filings. My sense is that the issue is not as big as the loss of market cap, but I am not going to venture back into the stock until after the next filing has been made and reviewed by competent analysts.
RBY - I think it's good in the 4.9 range and sell well over 5. That's what I did on an overnight trade Feb 24. Well, not exactly "well" over 5. Sold too soon, per usual. The FinViz chart is saying be cautious.
I tried hedging my large ECU position with various instruments (FCX puts, IWM puts, SLV short) and all my attempts have failed, in the sense that the recent correlation between ECU and all of them was near 0. Right now, however, I think that a major drop in silver will pull ECU down. The only reason as to why silver can have a major drop is if the situation in the Middle East would stabilize, which would mean that oil will go down. Thus, I am thinking that my current position in F (10% of my portfolio) might work as a hedge on my ECU position (1/3 of my portfolio). Thus, instead of worrying about stops for F, I'll just leave it in place.
If I was to guess, the people that sold RBY in fear that it was going to have to change the numbers from 4 mm oz to 1.5 mm oz will be wanting to reload once the air is clear.
At 4 mm oz, its priced at $250 per oz, and their cost to extract should be pretty low because the grade is relatively high and a lot of what would have been infrastructure costs will be avoided.
Nice version.
ReplyDeleteHiro's sounds great! David can order his usual 720 mL nigori sake.
ReplyDeleteIsn't the stock market reputed to be forward looking, with a 6 month outlook? If true it is predicting a QE3 unless one considers the recent pullback as the first sign of uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteThe 720 is the one he orders with only one glass, right? :)
ReplyDeleteKnow everyone is busy, but miss getting together.
Miss my Bean also.
ReplyDeleteActually, the last time we had dinner, vb and I ordered beers. David ordered a sake. The waitress asked 'A glass, right?' David said, 'No, a bottle.' The waitress turned around and pointed to the shelf- 'You mean one of those?' There was a line of 1.8 L bottles. We all laughed.
ReplyDeleteDavid has sake at the prime rib place?
ReplyDeleteI'm spending the evening with Jimmy Beam myself. Comcast is running a 1986 Christopher Walken/Sean Penn movie- At Close Range. I used to live for movies like that. Has it really been 25 years?
ReplyDeleteNo, we ended up at a sushi place in Menlo Park/Palo Alto.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of vb, have you heard from her?
ReplyDeleteGood movie. Did you like Falcon and the Snowman? I did/do. Too many movies these days live and die on the effects.
ReplyDeleteAh...Makes sense.
ReplyDeleteNo. If she doesn't pop in soon I'll call her.
Snowman was great- Penn's acting was so good he irritated the hell out of me.
ReplyDeleteNo chit! Me too. That's funny. I kept thinking, DON'T you loser! Still do when I see it.
ReplyDeleteAre you streaming NFLX now? I might have to go that way, although I really like 1080P better.
The only time I was in Menlo Park/Palo Alto was 1970 as a young engineer TDY on some small Army contract. It's amazing but I was on a cable car in SF and sat across from a guy that I knew from STL. Have not seen him since.
ReplyDeleteI have had much more travel time to LA and SD in my Army civilian career. Thats because of major contracts or subcontractors there on helicopter related stuff. When Hughes Helicopters won the contract for the Apache Attack helo and later moved to Mesa, AZ, I spent a lot of time in Phoenix. HH is now a part of Boeing.
ReplyDeleteWe switched to Comcast last week, so I'm watching cable. Still have NFLX also.
ReplyDeleteillini- 1970 was a great time to be in the Bay Area. Unfortunately, that was the year we moved back to Pittsburgh, followed a year later by Ann Arbor.
Illini- You were an engineer right?
ReplyDeleteSelling 1/4 of my silver soon, maybe monday. Metals should pop from downward revision of GDP done sneakily today
ReplyDeleteRB- Didn't know you dabbled with the weaker sister. How do you hold her? SLV?
ReplyDeleteMark, RB's avatar looks like a beagle, not a lab!
ReplyDeleteI was an engineer and a helicopter guy for most of my career, which is a bit of a specialty. My degree is in Aeronautical Engineering from U of IL and I started on what we call fixed wing aircraft in St. Louis at what is now Boeing. Trading is a retirement passion for last 15 years but not a sustainer. I have learned a lot during that time including that the financial system is a house of cards.
ReplyDeleteTalking my book. This is piggy backing on 2nds prediction and what Team says about the effect of social media going public. I believe the infrastructure plays that are going to be needed to create the band width to run the exponential growth of cloud, social media and streaming video is the way to play it. Short term the fiber optic long term the wireless and satellite plays. How long will it be before our computers, TVS, PHONES are linking directly to a satellite or tower, instead of comcast? I really think this space will out perform commodities and precious metals. Give me an ounce of bandwidth. We could even see bubblicious late 90s type action in these stocks. With net flicks and facebook leading the way. My bold prediction. Facebook will have a market cap as large as Googles in five years.
ReplyDeleteDo any of you engineers agree with me?
RB - The problem I see with fiber optic is the bothersome teather doesn't work well with mobile devices. Wireless is where it's at.
ReplyDeleteT3D chose ALU
Find us something to buy!
illini - The most important thing to remember about aerodynamics is a chopper can't fly without a properly torqued Jesus bolt!
ReplyDeleteI researched it 6 months ago and I could find no pure wireless bandwidth plays that were not private companies. I will look into this ALU thingy. ALU obviously cannot be a pure play on this right? Is this the same Lucent? I don't remember it being an ADR before. THis company use to have the highest volume in the entire market like 5 years ago. What have I missed?
ReplyDeleteA helicopter was flying around above Seattle when an electrical malfunction disabled all of the aircraft's electronic navigation and communications equipment. Due to the clouds and haze, the pilot could not determine the helicopter's position and course to steer to the airport.
ReplyDeleteThe pilot saw a tall building, flew toward it, circled, drew a handwritten sign, and held it in the helicopter's window. The pilot's sign said 'WHERE AM I?' in large letters.
People in the tall building quickly responded to the aircraft, drew a large sign, and held it in a building window. Their sign said 'YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER.'
The pilot smiled, waved, looked at his map, determined the course to steer to SEATAC airport, and landed safely.
After they were on the ground, the copilot asked the pilot how the 'YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER' sign helped determine their position.
The pilot responded 'I knew that had to be the MICROSOFT building because they gave me a technically correct, but completely useless answer.
That's an oldie, but a goody CP.
ReplyDeleteRB - ALU was formed when Alcatel, the French telecom company, bought Lucent.
ReplyDeleteI'm not quite sure why they felt compelled to buy Lucent, I can't imagine it was for their semiconductor division, perhaps some of their patents?
Anyway, that was then and this is now...
I had a couple I'd been looking at till I realized the Federal government was more interested in waffling around and burning money with no benefit as opposed to worthy projects such as communications infrastructure investment:
PWAV
DRWI
MSI - Another telecom equipment stock. Something crushed this one early January, not sure what happened.
ReplyDeleteGRMN - Breaking out?
ReplyDeleteTHe wireless stocks that I can find SWKS GSAT ORBC HUGH IPHI Don't see the big picture. What is our communication going to look like in five years? It is not going to be specialized in specific areas. That is what these companies are doing. Voice or video ect is going to be all combined. Bundled. Just like the cable tv companies fuched the land lines. The wireless people are going to fuch the cable providers.
ReplyDeleteThis is my impression. you are going to have a hybrid device that is going to be somewhere between a tablet and a phone. Probably a 6" by 6 " device that will be able to "dock" in to your TV, so your cloud can provide just the video content that you want to see. (netfliks?) It will dock into your Pc to provide your roving cloud internet service and your user profile. It will take the place of your cell phone, netbook, hard cover book and music player. Heck it may even take the place of your credit card! You dock your hybrid into the Restaurant confuser to pay your bill direct from your account no MC OR V FEES. PAYPAL looks like the leader to me. I think we just need to think who is going to provide the band width to make this possible and we will not have to worry about the price of oil or gold.
GARMIN a break of 35.50 looks good to me. This is a break of the 200 day weekly average. I like it! It goes on the watch list, thanks.
ReplyDeleteWireless...Well, I can tell you who it sure seems isn't a player. FTWR. :)
ReplyDeleteALU seems like a 'real' play to me.
RB - I think the big picture is wireless devices rule the future. Add SPEC/VECO to your list?
ReplyDeleteSmart devices just keep getting smarter and smarter, the land line disappears just as the payphone has.
There'll be little terrestrial transponders mounted everywhere, every mile or so?
The folks who make them, install them, and operate them will make money?
And then you've got the hand-held side of the story as well, along with the manufacturing equipment .
I don't know who all the players are, how well they're positioned, or even if they're US based. Collectively, there must be thousands of them from chip devices, circuit boards, plastic cases display devices, RF devices, batteries, on and on....
ALU- Might want to scratch that one short term. Looks like Friday's action might be take over rumors.
ReplyDeleteAPKT - Another one involved in handling internet traffic. I have almost no comprehension of how they fit in though...
ReplyDeleteALU - You know I'm not a chaser, look where I finally bought RBY ($5.05), I had my chance at $4.40 but passed.
ReplyDeleteMark - Should we just give up on FTWR ever succeeding? It sure seems that way...
ReplyDeleteBWEN - Reports tomorrow, maybe an accidental upside surprise waiting to happen?
ReplyDeleteProbably more like dangling in the wind than blowing in the wind...
CP- FTWR. Sure seems like it. Trading totally dried up. I guess there is something fundamentally wrong with the business model. I'm too afraid to trade it now.
ReplyDelete2nd, this Joe Cocker album has always been my favorite one.
ReplyDeleteI grew up in Baltimore. My Uncle (neatest guy in the world) got me a 4 row ticket dead center to a Cocker concert. Well, Cocker was no were to be found and they pulled in this other band for awhile. About 2 hours later they push Cocker on stage and he drunk as a skunk, they found him drinking in a bar. The good news was while this was all going on I met this really hot chick sitting next to me and we started going out. She got really pissed off at her father when he would not get her a Porsche for her eighteenth birthday. How do you say Jewish Princess? LOL
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 17, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- FiberTower Corporation (Nasdaq:FTWR - News), a wireless backhaul services provider, announced that it recently received an early termination notice from one of its emerging carrier customers to terminate service at approximately 220 billing locations on February 28, 2011, and that the customer is reviewing approximately 50 additional locations for possible early termination by March 31, 2011. The monthly billing revenue generated by the service targeted for February termination is approximately $256,000 while the monthly billing revenue generated by locations being evaluated for March termination is approximately $88,000.
ReplyDeleteThe Company recognizes that it is normal course of business for customers to make decisions to take down service based on their own particular circumstances or requirements. For this reason, the Company includes early termination liability in all of its contracts. The locations being terminated and being reviewed for termination represent a portion of the total FiberTower service contracted by this customer. Upon termination of all the services mentioned above, the customer's early termination charges will be approximately $2 million payable immediately.
FiberTower does not believe that these early terminations will have a material impact on the company's cash position in 2011.
BCOND - Electric power here keeps going out, I guess the power lines are nearly ka-put with all the wind, ice, rain, sleet and snow we've had hese past couple of years... And of course it's raining again today.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we need a bank or two of these Flintstone generators?
T3D - That's what I'd call a daytrade, too high maintenance for a longer time horizon. ;)
ReplyDeleteBWEN- I bought some Friday because I figured it was scraping bottom. Did not even know about earnings tomorrow. It's already a micro-cap. If it falls any more what will it be? A nano-cap? Or just plain bankrupt? Their balance sheet is too strong for that, I think.
ReplyDeleteALU and MDW are my best two ideas, but both are at new highs.
ReplyDeleteRBY, buying at 5.05, I would not consider this chasing.
ALU, actually the buy out rumors were on Thursday and in the pre-mkt on Friday they were giving away ALU in the 5.20's.
Everything I like is near highs or will no pull back just kinda goes sideways in a small range.
Absolutely agree that wireless growth is the place to be.
Long: ALU MSFT AA (TRADED 6X'S LAST 3 DAYS FOE .20 CENT INCREMENTS) RBY DNN C BA
As you know I could sell all on Monday or not.
Here is the problem right now in he market. It does not mean it can not go up for another year, it can do anything.
ReplyDeleteHere is an except by Seth Klarman for full article use the link.
In the markets of late 2008, everything was for sale as investors were caught in a contagion of selling due to panic, margin calls, and investor redemptions. Even while modeling very conservative scenarios, many securities could have been purchased at extremely attractive prices – if one had capital with which to buy them and the stamina to hold them in the face of falling prices. By late 2010, froth had returned to the markets, as investors with short-term relative performance orientations sought to keep up with the herd. Exuberant buying had replaced frenzied selling, as investors purchased securities offering limited returns even on far rosier economic assumptions.
Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/03/seth-klarman-baupost-groups-2010-letter.html#ixzz1FqamWZ4h
later
http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/03/seth-klarman-baupost-groups-2010-letter.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MarketFolly+(Market+Folly)
BWEN - In that case, you might want to know, Friday morning they announced a change of their earnings date to the 15th. That might partially explain Friday's dour mood?
ReplyDeleteConsidering the dollar hasn't shown much "safe harbor" strength through all the middle east unrest, in addition to all the other fundamentals (emerging market demand), high energy prices certainly should provide a tailwind for alternative energy?
BWEN- Hey! You been holding out on us?! I thought I was the only crazy ass knife catcher here :)
ReplyDeleteLaw suits flying and earnings delayed...Damn! That thing is under attach from an AC-130.
OK, can you give me a quick rundown? Have they ever made money? Is this a burn rate issue, etc.
PASS ID/Real ID - Does anyone know the current status? It would be interesting to know where this bill is and if it still contains the embeded devices originally described.
ReplyDeleteIt might be a moneymaker for whomever manufacturers the devices, there was a small unsigned Intel skunkworks fab optimizing this manufacturing process technology south of San Jose that I used to visit fairly often...
Jack Van Imp Ministries: The future New World Order is born in the middle east and sweeps the world.
ReplyDeleteMark - Our knives are only capable of minor paper cuts, yours are the real thing and at times it seems you're on a suicide mission!
ReplyDeleteWe have to keep you isolated, we can't risk losing a good friend. ;)
I know you guys are looking out for me :0). Thanks CP.
ReplyDeleteCan I post an interesting link on F?
Sorry Mark, you've been temporarily banned for excessive knife catching activity!
ReplyDelete"Can I post an interesting link?" Duh, jeeze!
F-
ReplyDeletehttp://detnews.com/article/20110304/AUTO01/103040412/Ford-accounting-move-may-add-$13-billion-to-profit--expert-says#ixzz1Fr9t142W
BWEN- P/B is only .88 and we coulda just put in a double bottom going back to late Oct.
ReplyDeletehey mark - hope you guys had a good weekend. this news on F came out right before the close on Thursday.
ReplyDeletehey TOF- Yeah, I saw it then, but thought this explained it pretty well...At least for me. I'm sure everyone else got it right away.
ReplyDeleteI've had a pretty interesting digression into 'continuous care' facilities the past 6-8 weeks. Basically, my parents are planning to sell their home and move into one on the Peninsula. They decided to do it while they're still healthy and independent. I was against the idea at first, but after touring several facilities, I did a 180. In fact, the one they ended up buying into is one that I wouldn't mind living in myself, even today. It's more like a luxury hotel than anything else. I'll work on an extended post sometime in the next few weeks, as I expect many of you will face the same decision at some point. Right now, let's just say (a) it ain't as expensive as you might think, and (b) it's the future of post-retirement living- which has completely been reinvented.
ReplyDeleteFreaking oil man. This is becoming a problem. I need to start trading oil futures. The damn thing won't go down.
ReplyDelete2nd- Same thing here. My parents are a few years away still. The place they are looking at is in Oregon. They actually start out in individual 'bungalows' for lack of a better term. There is a pretty steep 'by-in', but the sooner you do it the cheaper it is. Both of them are very healthy. Hell, they'll probably out live me :)!
ReplyDeleteSilver - At this rate, we'll being witnessing $40 silver sooner than I'd anticipated as well...
ReplyDeleteAll at the expense of everything else no doubt, so I'm gonna keep my eye on add op's into "everything else"
Sheesh, hopefully oil doesn't run to $140!
I think we may have peaked out for a good while if oil stays this high...I'm getting nervous about my F position.
ReplyDeleteRE: Retirement homes...How did people used to do it before retirement homes? Living with the family right? Wasn't it better that way?
"Just in time" manufacturing seems to become a stick in the spokes when one parts factory gets torched and goes off line...
ReplyDeleteI could never live in an apartment again, I'd be outside doing something even if I couldn't walk and was forced to crawl on my knees.
ReplyDeleteEven MOG doesn't like oil this high. Hurts his other 2 businesses. He's not overly concerned at this point though.
ReplyDeleteMark- Take a guess as to the 'buy-in,' the monthly fee for a couple, and whether or not the residents own the condo.
ReplyDelete300K by in, 1.5K/month and some form of ownership?
ReplyDeleteThis is a facility until the end, right?
I think it's getting close to that point where we need to go with the Honda GX...this is becoming ridiculous with the price of oil and our country not providing the support for it. Here in SD we have several stations that offer up CNG (compressed nat gas) for $2.10 to $2.80/gallon versus $3.75 to $4/gallon for the regular unleaded stuff. If you can do it and if you drive say 30 gallons a month you can save up to $60/month or about $700 a year. If you go with the Phill (see description below), you can save yourself $90/month or about $1,100 a year...if you drive the car 140k miles then you can save $11,200 over the life of the car. Back out about $2,500 - $3,000 for the price of the Phill and you can save $8,200 to $8,700 with a Nat Gas hybrid car.
ReplyDeleteHere is a review from Consumer Reports:
The Driving Experience The GX drives similarly to a regular Civic, with a decent ride and sound handling, although the handling feels a little less crisp than in the EX version we've previously tested. The powertrain, with its five-speed automatic transmission, operates smoothly. The reduced engine power makes merging onto a highway a little slower than it is with the regular Civic. As in other Civics, road noise remains pronounced.
As for the economics of running a natural-gas engine, that varies from place to place. Prices per gasoline gallon-equivalent range from $1.65 to $3.49 right now. Some stations keep the subsidize cost comparable to the price of domestic natural gas while some artificially raise it to the price of diesel.
To fill up the GX, you connect a thin rubber hose from the dispensing pump to a snap-on receiving nozzle on the car. Then you rotate a valve and lift a handle on the pump. The process is just a little slower than pumping gasoline. Consumers in California and New York who have natural gas piped to their home can opt for the "Phill," a device that hooks up to a household natural gas line. Since it has to pressurize household gas to 3,600 psi, it takes the Phill several hours to replenish the GX's tank. The Phill costs about $3,500 to buy. A $1,000 federal tax credit defrays some of the cost, and additional subsidies of up to $2,000 are available from various environmental authorities. The ability to refuel overnight helps address the limitations with fuel pump availability. With a residential price of $12.50 for 1000 cubic feet of CNG and a conversion of 1 cubic foot =.012 gallon cost comes out to about a $1 a gallon.
275K for a 1-BR/den, you own it, and it's about 3k/month.
ReplyDeleteCompare that to another facility in the same city-> 300k buy-in, resident owns, and 7k/month.
Why the difference? The first has 220 units, and the facility takes 40% of any gains upon resale. The second has 65 units.
More comparisons- there is one in Palo Alto with a 900k buy-in for a 1BR, you DON'T own it, and 5k/month.
Note that the one my folks bought into is generally accepted as the premier facility in this area. They also had to 'pass' health exams, financial/asset thresholds, and personal interviews.
Takeaways- Find one that includes enough units/residents to simultaneously offer better services + lower fees, and is further able to reduce fees by taking a percentage of gains upon resale. We didn't see a problem with the resale percentage, as my folks are not exactly speculating on real estate with this purchase!
2nd- Same thing with regards to exams/financials/interviews for the one my parents are looking at.
ReplyDeleteDoes it have a kitchen? Are 3 meals 'offered' a day, and is it a total care facility until your parents have to 'sell' it?
I'd never get past the 'interview' part :(
ReplyDeleteToo funny, we couldn't replace engineered halogenic freon refrigerents with light hydrocarbons such as propane b/c they were "too hazardous", and now we're considering using them in large quantities as a motor fuel.
ReplyDeleteYou guys see crude futures hitting 106, gonna be some real pressure on the ES, guessing emea opens rough, will need to be up and rolling at 12 p.m. to catch the open....I think things are about to get really interesting
ReplyDeletetof - just saw your post. if you want to trade CL, Infinity Futures is excellent, ask for Patrick.
ReplyDeleteShanghai +1%. DJIA futes -41. Same old same old.
ReplyDeleteNo. It will take care of you through Assisted Living (30 days available in the Assisted Living Unit at no charge, for any reason). If you need to move permanently into Assisted Living, there is an additional fee. If you need more than that, you'll need to move out. But apparently only 2-3% of residents will require that.
ReplyDelete'Keeping one's head' is absolutely essential when trading. For me, that translates into closing positions should it become apparent we're headed back down, or holding positions should I feel there's too much panic.
ReplyDeleteShanghai +1.34%.
ReplyDeletebtw, there is absolutely no reason why any of us should expect any more/less from the market than what we're accustomed to. We make the choice to play, knowing full well we'll be buffeted by the winds of change every single moment.
ReplyDeleteHK +0.3%, Nikkei -1.3%.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy enough as long as those winds aren't fouled. ;)
ReplyDeleteCL already at 106.
ReplyDeletePer Bill Cara,
ReplyDeleteRubicon stands behind their exchange filed reports, but they acknowledge that the mining consultant used two methodologies, and one apparently resulted in a slightly lower number of ounces of gold. They stand behind either calculation and state that if the exchange consultants require them to use the lower figure that already they have drilled enough to likely replace those oz in future filings. My sense is that the issue is not as big as the loss of market cap, but I am not going to venture back into the stock until after the next filing has been made and reviewed by competent analysts.
RBY - I think it's good in the 4.9 range and sell well over 5. That's what I did on an overnight trade Feb 24. Well, not exactly "well" over 5. Sold too soon, per usual. The FinViz chart is saying be cautious.
ReplyDeleteRBY- It's in the steepest of wedgies, that's for sure. Ouch!
ReplyDeleteRBY - Well, that sounds encouraging.
ReplyDeleteRBY - The max-pain calculator is also advising caution, with a target op-ex of $2.50
ReplyDeleteAt the open Amigos.
ReplyDeleteSi,Si Amigo. God willing and if the creek don't rise.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM
ReplyDeleteI tried hedging my large ECU position with various instruments (FCX puts, IWM puts, SLV short) and all my attempts have failed, in the sense that the recent correlation between ECU and all of them was near 0. Right now, however, I think that a major drop in silver will pull ECU down. The only reason as to why silver can have a major drop is if the situation in the Middle East would stabilize, which would mean that oil will go down. Thus, I am thinking that my current position in F (10% of my portfolio) might work as a hedge on my ECU position (1/3 of my portfolio). Thus, instead of worrying about stops for F, I'll just leave it in place.
ReplyDeleteIf I was to guess, the people that sold RBY in fear that it was going to have to change the numbers from 4 mm oz to 1.5 mm oz will be wanting to reload once the air is clear.
ReplyDeleteAt 4 mm oz, its priced at $250 per oz, and their cost to extract should be pretty low because the grade is relatively high and a lot of what would have been infrastructure costs will be avoided.
Sold the silver at $36.49, good profit on that.
ReplyDeleteThese people selling gold here will disappointed when $1500 rolls around. Not sure when that happens, but I'm still aiming for $1570 by July 4th
ReplyDeleteHot DANG!
ReplyDeleteCADC - I knew the chicken-shifts wouldn't sell it down from here.
ReplyDeleteI'm prepared to buy more if they do.
Chitty-chitty Dangdang!
ReplyDeleteJPM upgrades PCAR to buy.
ReplyDeleteGS downgrades BYD to sell.
MDW- Great call T3D.
ReplyDeleteMCOX - Big gap to fill?
ReplyDeleteCOAL!
ReplyDelete1/2 off ICO.
ReplyDeleteLong NOA
ReplyDeleteNot good. Took off BAC/F across all accounts. Back to cash.
ReplyDeleteNOA - Is that a lump of coal in your pocket or are you just happy to see us? ;)
ReplyDeleteWhy? Take a look at JDSU/RAX/AAPL/CRM etc. VIX is spiking. Enough for me to stand aside here.
ReplyDeleteWhat's that Vad says about oversold becomes oversolder? My thoughts exactly on F. Why am I still holding?
ReplyDeleteGL guys. I hope I'm wrong for your positions. I'll see you at the close.
ReplyDelete