Rain before the storm?/ Stops coming up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5304 comments) on Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:12 #81006
Weather's not looking good. Capital preservation trumps risk, and plans are to disembark at the next stop. I need to preserve my YTD gains- not that they're anything to boast about (+5% at the peak, likely down to between +3-4% by EOD).
I'm going to have a hard time selling anything as long as the dollar remains weak.
ReplyDeleteBe careful getting too bearish here guys. A good deal of the latest spike in the price of oil is based on the assumption that Saudi Arabia will riot and turn into Libya part II. If the so called Day of Rage turns out to be a dud then I think there is a good chance that we will see oil down significantly over the next month and the markets could be above the old highs. We have a pretty obvious stop out point...if the market closes down below 1,285 I'd say its time to take risk off the table. Until then I think it's too early to tell.
ReplyDeleteRe: Stops Coming Up> BAC/CSCO/INTC off 14.07/ 21.18/ 18.10
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5306 comments) on Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:34 #81008 (in reply to #81006)
Taking losses is never pleasant, but it beats them taking them at even lower prices.
Re: Stops Coming Up> BAC/CSCO/INTC off 14.07/ 21.18/ 18.10 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5306 comments) on Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:37 #81009 (in reply to #81008)
ReplyDeleteWhat really ticks me off, of course, is being forced to close OAKBX/ FSELX at EOD. On the other hand, I knew that going in. My entry was a bad decision- in retrospect. Seemed OK at the time. I have no problems with disembarking at this time.
2nd - I'm more interested in buying this little pullback than selling then buying higher only to be shaken out again, we're still in the channel.
ReplyDeleteI could see taking profits here or this morning, and hoping for a pullback, I nearly sold RBY but I don't want to take a small gain just to be left sitting on the platform as the train finally pulls out of the station.
Military armament is useless without a comprehensive plan, maybe some day we'll get lucky and Congress will cut the military budget in half and that money will come rushing over?
Correction, we're no longer in the channel, but we are still above the 50DMA. That's probably where we're headed, around 1300...
ReplyDeleteJust sold 1/2 of my F (1000 shares) at $14.09 for a loss of $660. If F turns around tomorrow, shoots up and never looks back, then I'll recoup this loss on the other 1/2 I am still holding. Otherwise, I'll be able to reload this 1/2 at much better prices.
ReplyDeleteCSX Stopped. 73.68. Might be low print of the day. Happens more than mere chance.
ReplyDeleteAlso, for no apparent reason CCJ collapsed today, hitting my stop at $39.75. I didn't expect this. CCJ was doing so well on Friday, being up despite the broad market being down...
ReplyDeleteShort CAT at $101.82.
ReplyDeleteAll right, back into F at $14.10 -- looks like the decline in both the broad market and F has flattened out, and it is too late to sell it today. We may even have a bounce EOD.
ReplyDeleteOut of my F at $14.11 and out of my BAC at $13.97. both probably sold at bottoms. If these weren't doing well when the market was doing well what happens if the market falls?
ReplyDeleteAlso sold some of my CHGI at $2.03 and $2.05. Still have about 20k shs. Only long this and DANG.
Nope, I was wrong -- the market decline is not over for the day yet. Out of all of my F at $14.07.
ReplyDeleteRe: Stops Coming Up> BAC/CSCO/INTC off 14.07/ 21.18/ 18.10 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5307 comments) on Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:56 #81013 (in reply to #81010)
ReplyDeleteThanks, Les. As you know, my trades are generally instinctive and based on what I see as prevailing sentiment.
The psychology of taking losses would make a fascinating study (and has probably already been done). Personally:
(a) As soon as I sense myself 'hoping' for a rebound in prices, I know it's time to bail, no questions asked.
(b) The other 'baggage' I had to learn to discard was the sense of (for lack of a better term) 'entitlement' to any gains. For instance, my opening balance this morning might have been 'x.' As I begin to realize losses, it becomes 'x-y' or '0.99x.' I used to get hung up on the negative numbers, which is an entirely meaningless exercise. 'x' is just a floating number that defines my balance at a point in time.
(c) Losses are part of the game, and the sooner we learn to accept them (which allows detachment), the sooner we learn to enjoy the game.
Sold my DANG at $26.43. Bought it last week at around $24.8 but missed bigger gains earlier today.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair guys, if ES holds the 1297 area then we're still in that trading range of 1,300 to 1,340ish and we're still in that wedge.
ReplyDeleteBought 500 more shares of GTY at $21.80.
ReplyDelete2nd ave,
ReplyDeleteVery Zen like approuch. I try to have detachment in my trading. Emphasis on try. The hoping tell is right on.
Back into F at $14.07 -- the decline did stop today.
ReplyDeleteECUXF money pump just hit my buy limit at $1.15 for 5000 shares. Placing a sell limit at $1.20.
ReplyDeleteRe: 2nd throws in the towel newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5309 comments) on Mon, 03/07/2011 - 13:54 #81025 (in reply to #81021)
ReplyDeleteI'm not about to argue semantics too hard here, but I would liken my stance right now as:
(a) I pressed the 6 and 8 last Thursday. The bet was the 6-month rally would end with a parabolic rise.
(b) I was content to hold the bet over the weekend for an additional roll.
(c) It came up seven. And I'm leaving the table.
Jeffrey Saut's latest...I don't have much of a take on his take as I can't tell if he is serious that there is a market top being formed or if he is just pointing out the possibility.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeff-saut-market-top-tech-stock/3/7/2011/id/33195
David - The play on F is what we should have followed: namely that a long should only be initiated upon a break out above the downward trendline from the highs in January through the highs in early/mid February. Right now that trend line is at about $14.8.
ReplyDeleteAlternatively, a buy here with a stop just below the 200 DMA (which is at 14.02) is a low risk trade.
Re: Stops Coming Up> BAC/CSCO/INTC off 14.07/ 21.18/ 18.10 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5310 comments) on Mon, 03/07/2011 - 14:39 #81034 (in reply to #81027)
ReplyDeleteApparently J6P moved from cash into funds in January at levels not seen since 2007. So any sell-off will likely be sufficiently severe to knock most of them back into cash. Starting with me, I hope ;)
Been here for about an hour. Nothing looks healthy to me here. I guess the question is will be get an EOD rally? I wont be helping it along.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else thinking when the Chi. Fed dude was on TV and said he thought QE2 would just 'end', that kinda pulled the rug out? Intra-day high at the time and about 2 minutes after that statement, we were flat on the day.
Someone really puked up their shares of RAS today.
ReplyDelete2nd - If any time was a good time for the market to fall I'd say it's here...think about the sentiment of traders.
ReplyDeleteThat Knight guy on SOH posted about how he is paralyzed with fear of shorting the market. I think his sentiment sums up the sentiment of most bearish people. The shorts are out of the market for the most part.
Econ reports have been quite strong lately so that provides support to the argument that the market should go higher. Bulls aren't quick to bail on their positions given this improving economy. So far dip buyers have been rewarded quite well and should the price of oil pull back then the market should zoom higher. So I would think that dip buyers are coming in to the market.
Having said this, it will take another scary drop below support to shake out the market and give the downside any momentum. Until then though we cant really get too bearish.
*DJ: Ford: Half of Ford vehicles will run on alternative fuels by 2012.
ReplyDeleteRBY - I'm out @ $5.07, it's just acting too weak and there are other bargains beginning to appear...
ReplyDeleteI'd go long SDS here @ 21.54 for a trade, but have to leave in a few minutes.
ReplyDeleteMan, they're running F down hard right now.
ReplyDeleteF- 200sma right here.
ReplyDeleteBORN gave back all of it's gains off earnings today.
ReplyDeleteShorts smelling tiger blood?
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna hold on to my SPY index fund at the close...we still have a series of higher lows.
ReplyDeleteOh MY god! two down days in a row. That can't be normal.
ReplyDeleteThat F*ing F just can't get its act together. Oil is down from mid-day, S&P is up from mid-day, and F is down! Maybe the hedge funds are scaring people out of it before gapping it higher if oil indeed drops tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteGPL - There's a silver play that's done quite well...
ReplyDeleteI can't think of a reason for oil to drop tomorrow, but then again I'm not sitting in front of a television.
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is I didn't like today's action, inclusive of gold.
SLV/SLW - SLV beat the pants off SLW, I guess it's all about the metal again today.
ReplyDeleteI think Friday's end os session rally was short covering and folks mistakenly carried that into this morning but concerns over oil brought the market back down.
howdy boys - I'm really getting concerned that we are at the tipping point, whether it's hard commodities, soft commodities or the oil complex, a serious bout of inflation just has to be raising its ugly head, I know about all the "slack" in the economy but why does that make a difference if US GDP is 70% consumer spending? The old economic models which applied in 20's-80's don't apply any longer, at least IMO, globalization, service based economies and global unbalances (trade and currencies) render good old John M K and The Austrian's moot
ReplyDeleteSurprisingly, BSFT is up hard after hours.
ReplyDeleteJB - Tend to agree, it's hard to say for sure but it doesn't look good and QE-2 winds down soon too, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteDamn, if Fordy can't hold the 200, I see support almost a buck lower.
ReplyDeleteone thing i wonder if people have thought of is if al qaeda does something to take advantage of the unrest in the middle east. what are the odds they sabotage their own people?
ReplyDeletei think we get a good buying opportunity here at some point relatively soon. i don't think we have gotten a significant panic-stricken sell off yet.
About an hour ago from Reuters...
ReplyDeleteAl Jazeera said Gaddafi had proposed to Libyan rebels to hold a meeting of parliament to pave the way for him to step down with certain guarantees.
It said Gaddafi made the proposal to the interim council, which speaks for mostly eastern areas controlled by his opponents. It quoted sources in the council as saying Gaddafi wanted guarantees of personal safety for him and his family and a pledge that they not be put on trial.
Al Jazeera said sources from the council told its correspondent in Benghazi that the offer was rejected because it would have amounted to an "honorable" exit for Gaddafi and would offend his victims.
The London-based daily Asharq al-Awsat and the daily al-Bayan, based in the United Arab Emirates, also cited unnamed sources as saying Gaddafi was looking for an agreement.
A source close to the council told Reuters he had heard that "one formula being proposed by the other side would see Gaddafi hand power to the head of parliament and leave the country with a certain guaranteed sum of money."
"I was told that this issue of money is a serious obstacle from the national council's point of view," he said, adding that his information came from a single source close to the council.
Essam Gheriani, a media officer for the council, said: "No such offer has been put to the council as far as I am aware."
APPEAL FOR DIALOGUE
Jadallah Azous Al-Talhi, a leading member of the ruling establishment and a prime minister in the 1980s, appealed to rebel leaders for dialogue Monday, in the clearest sign yet Gaddafi may be ready to compromise with opponents challenging his four-decade rule.
The fact that state television screened Talhi's appeal indicated that it was officially endorsed.
But the council said there was no room for broad dialogue with Gaddafi and any talks must be on the basis that he quits.
Asked about Talhi's address, rebel official Ahmed Jabreel told Reuters: "Talhi is a close acquaintance of mine and he is widely respected in Libya as a man who stood up to Gaddafi.
"But we have made it clear all along that any negotiations must be on the basis that Gaddafi will step down. There can be no other compromise."
Asharq al-Awsat, citing "informed Libyan sources" in Benghazi, said Gaddafi sent a negotiator to the rebel council with an offer to step down provided he had guarantees for his personal safety and that of his family as well as his money.
Al Bayan quoted a source close to Gaddafi's inner circle as saying the Libyan leader had begun looking for a safe haven outside Libya.
TOF- I'm seriously thinking about hopping back into F/BAC before the AH's close.
ReplyDeleteBAC has an investor day tomorrow...i highly doubt it's down unless the market tanks. F is completely tied to oil
ReplyDeleteOK, bidding BAC/14.05 F/14.03.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I hear you.
No dice.
ReplyDeleteNymex crude futures didn't budge in response to the Gaddafi news. Maybe traders don't believe them yet? If Gaddafi indeed starts the negotiation process, stops attacking oil facilities in Libya and oil doesn't drop, then we will know, as Bill had suspected, that the jump in oil is a delayed reaction to QE2 and to increased inflation expectations, where oil was simply catching up to other commodities, masking its advance using Libya as an excuse.
ReplyDeleteWhether or not oil price inflation is actually a response to QE or not is immaterial to me, lower equities prices begets lower commodities prices along with a lack of faith in economic vitality.
ReplyDeleteTo me, this is beginning to feel like 2008 all over again.
Don't like to hear that Pookie. ( I use your given name when I'm serious.) Care to expound?
ReplyDeleteMan, I'm so weak...I just ordered the 'Combo Fat Blaster' on line. Hope it's here in time for the summer pool season.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm thinking if this oil price goes parabolic like it did in 2008, we'll experience the same kind of broad sell off.
ReplyDeleteEven PM's were involved in that one as margin calls performed their magic, the dollar and T's were the safe havens.
Interesting brent(BNO) fell, a step in the right direction.
Combo Fat Blaster - I hear they make great coat racks!
ReplyDeleteCP- Your the bomb!
ReplyDeleteI see Faber is thinking similarly to me:
ReplyDelete"Oil prices are rocketing, but where will the flow of money go next? Emerging market outperformance is history. This is the start of a three month correction phase for stocks says Dr Marc Faber. The US dollar and bonds will rally.
But US stocks will go down by less than emerging markets. He’s always been a fan of precious metals and they are still in an uptrend but Faber warns elsewhere that gold is also vulnerable to a correction in a big sell-off."
anyone else think PG is right right now?
ReplyDeleteCombo Fat Blaster...what the deuce?
Yesterday Barack had dinner with the Chinese premier and when Obama went to pick up the check, the premier said "Your money is no good here, really, it's no good!"
ReplyDeletePG - Sitting right on the 200 SMA, you'll know in a few sessions. There are some treasury sales this week, Tue/W/Thur I believe, the market will be watching.
ReplyDeleteJust make sure to order the coat rack attachment with the fat blaster and you'll be fine. ;)
ReplyDeleteOK, *now* oil is heading down and index futures are heading up. If it continues at this rate for the next 6 hours, then Tuesday will see a powerful gap up open.
ReplyDeleteAs expected, the monthly payment was received today by GTY:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Getty-Realty-Corp-Provides-bw-3293075731.html?x=0&.v=1
I am placing a sell limit order at $25 and $26, each for 500 shares of GTY I picked up under $22.
Nice move buying back in BAC,Mark.
ReplyDelete“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
– Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Same with GTY, David.
ReplyDeleteF @ 14.04.
ReplyDeleteF off @ 14.17. I'll take the $1k.
ReplyDeleteHmmmm...Oil off nicely, GDX getting hammered and SPX now weakening. Not good.
ReplyDeleteBSFT - Nice!
ReplyDeleteFailed breakout in NOA causes stop. Stopped out of my ICO on a quick 8% swing.:( Mark has the Blue Oval fever!
ReplyDeleteJust bought some Rubicon. Last time buying under 5 worked out well.
ReplyDeleteCrap, crap, crap, crap, crap!
ReplyDeleteMan, some of the energy stuff I follow is really getting killed.
ReplyDeleteBut consider the lofty peak the oils were at.
ReplyDeleteIllini- No doubt.
ReplyDeleteMan, I really didn't trade well the last 2 days.
me = worst trader ever
ReplyDeletei'm the one who sold my F and F calls and BAC and BAC calls yesterday near the lows.
Later guys...Shame on me :(
ReplyDeleteRBY - Stink bid @ $4.80, right above the Jan low.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe you guys gave up on F so easily, but who knew oil would ease? It still could begin moving up, so in reality it's six of one, half dozen of the other.
I'm thinking of some ZSL, but I still think silver is going to $40, possibly on it's way to $50, if oil prices ease. So I'm gonna wait until after $40.
Boy's way too hard on yourselves. THe choppy market are going to cause these sharp reversals of emotions. We need to do what David does and do shots of vodka on every point we lose.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
ReplyDeleteTed spread is in an uptrend. I wonder if its just middle east tensions.
RBY - I'm back in, with fingers crossed. ;)
ReplyDeleteOh boy, crude is down a whole $0.33!
ReplyDeleteCelebrate good times!
What an interesting morning! USO is green and F is shooting up! Some tensions have probably subsided, gold is down a bit, silver is down a bit too, but the miners are down a lot! The traders have a very short memory: didn't they hold down the miners when gold ans silver was rallying fear, because they didn't believe it was a permanent condition? Well, it wasn't, but why sell the miners now when that conditions ends, as expected???
ReplyDeleteThe one bright spot for me this morning is GTY. I forgot to mention that it was Igor who recommended this one to me. So if any of you also jumped on this amazing opportunity, you should thank him as well! I have sell limits at $25, $26, $27 for the 500 share lots I picked up below $22.
ReplyDeleteI also sold 5 April $22.50 puts on it for $2.30 -- THAT was the trade to do for a conservative investor who wanted to get into GTY at $20.20 (for a nice 10% dividend) or pocket 10% in options premium in 1.5 months. Whenever traders panic about something, we should not only buy a small bunch of shares but also sell a lot of puts at huge premiums into that fear.
RBY seems like a great buy here. This is a stock that should be simply accumulated on weakness, without the regard for any news. The only reason Bill sold his position on the news of 43-101 review, I think, is because he cannot afford to have a large temporary drawdown with OPM. It doesn't really matter what methodology RBY uses to infer their resources. There IS a lot of stuff there, they WILL build a mine in 2 years, they WILL start mining 200000oz of gold per year, and they WILL have a free cashflow of $0.8/share.
ReplyDeleteThe actual amount of resources is important only for figuring out whether they will be able to mine that stuff for 10 years, 20 years or 30 years. There are routine example in the industry when mines were in operation for MUCH longer than what the initial resource estimate indicated, since the company, rightfully, didn't want to spend too much money doing in-fill drilling just to prove their resources. If the resources are localized in one area -- then just get mining! So any silly resource disputes for RBY, like we are having now, is a great buying opportunity.
Having said that, there will be PLENTY of them until they finish their mine, and so I am not jumping on this one yet. I sold March $5 puts on RBY for $0.35, and I'll wait for 1.5 weeks to see if they are assigned. If not, then I'll sell $5 puts on RBY again, and so on. :)
Hopped back in DANG...much smaller position...at $25.85. Earnings tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought a few BTU March $65 Calls at $3.25
GTY - Congrats David, and Igor as well! ;) I love hearing about the interesting trades and thought patterns, it assists my decision making process tremendously, more than you know, when you share.
ReplyDeleteCheers!
RE: BTU - BTU is in a long term bull cycle that I think will last for years. The stock is still well below it's all time highs yet the earnings of the company keep growing. It just broke out in this past week above the $66 area and wouldn't you know but today it came back and retested that area. I think this stock ultimately goes to $100 this year.
ReplyDeleteDGW - Looks pretty good here just a hair over $9, 3/19 max pain is $12.50...
ReplyDeleteIYT - Flying, now back over the 20SMA
ReplyDeleteBTU - 3/19 Max Pain is $60, FWIW.
ReplyDeleteCP > If I was able to get BTU at $60 I would probably go all in.
ReplyDeleteCP- Wow, nice order placement on RBY.
ReplyDeleteRB- Any comment of KOGer.
ReplyDeleteSharp knife headed my way. LNG.
ReplyDeleteOK RB...You got my back in this knife fight?
ReplyDeleteTaking small probe positions in MRVL, MTG, SPF. Looking at short AMGN 50 Apr puts...FWIW
ReplyDelete"Sharp knife headed my way. LNG."
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting, Mark -- what's your take on it?
What attracted you to LNG in the first place? Why would US need to support LNG receiving terminals if we are awash in our own NG?
ReplyDeleteMark, I am stubbornly only trading momentum. KOG has none at the moment. In addition I seen a story that had hedge loss and KOG in the same sentence which is a big red flag. Heck that makes me rethink all the tiny oiler plays. For capital I am sure most of them have Hedge contracts. Definately something I don't want to research before trading, so I will be avoiding those wee little ones.
ReplyDeleteI do want Oil exposure. High oil prices are here to stay. Cheniere is propably a good play. I like BEXP, but cannot figure out what would be a good price to reenter. What do you think. I'm dreaming it will get back to 30 flat, but that is probably a pipe dream.
RBY looks done for, chart wise. 20 more days till it gets to ZERO.
ReplyDeleteSorry. BNN negative coverage last night was the Coup de Grace for shareholders.
Sad, because whatever gold was there, still is there.
LNG - A knife in your back? That's a contrarian trade in the physical sense?
ReplyDeleteRBY - Mark - Knowing my luck you'll probably see a better price soon! Maybe even AH? Seems to be rapidly breaking down and now that oil is finally softening, all inflation fears are erased, LOL. As if excessively high oil won't cause a market crash... I bet tomorrow she's the reddest-headed step child on the playground.
I just read Jeff Saut's recent article "Was the Recent Sell-Off the Long Anticipated Correction?", which someone here had already cited, where Jeff points out about the market recently focusing on a few darling stocks while the rest of the stocks are being quietly distributed by the smart money. Well, I looked at the 6-month chart of IWM and saw that since the mid-February correction, it made 2 higher lows. So the working assumption for now MUST be that the uptrend is still in place. However, if IWM breaks the February low of $80, then one should really re-evaluate his thinking and start looking for opportunities on the short side (such as shorting IWM outright with a buy to cover stop at $80.50.
ReplyDeletePeruvian drug lords sent $3B to Al-Queda through European banks last year?
ReplyDeleteCharley Sheen is an enabler.