Tuesday, March 8, 2011
3/8/11 Leaving Las Vegas
I refrained from watching the action today for the same reason I don't second-guess myself at the gaming tables- the next roll is likely to be a slap. However, if I return 30 minutes to an hour later, it's usually clear the House has recovered much (if not all) of earlier winnings by Players.
As expected, I took a -1.4% hit yesterday (ouch). The worst was a -5% hit on FSELX (-4.25% plus the -0.75% fee for short-term trading)- fortunately, position size (about 11% of the portfolio), made it manageable. I also need to look at the big picture. Compared to the lows of March 2009, my balances are up +124.5%. Wife's balances still have a ways to go, as she shied away from buying risk when the risk trade paid off well. So we're still about -11% short of the all-time highs of September 2008.
Anyone else catch the latest Yahoo Finance headline- 2 years after market low, the little guy is back
http://tinyurl.com/68sdrr7
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I don't think any of us are bad traders. The Market is quite good at psyching out the best of traders, and we got psyched out yesterday. It happens.
ReplyDeleteI just read Jeff Saut's recent article "Was the Recent Sell-Off the Long Anticipated Correction?", which someone here had already cited, where Jeff points out about the market recently focusing on a few darling stocks while the rest of the stocks are being quietly distributed by the smart money. Well, I looked at the 6-month chart of IWM and saw that since the mid-February correction, it made 2 higher lows. So the working assumption for now MUST be that the uptrend is still in place. However, if IWM breaks the February low of $80, then one should really re-evaluate his thinking and start looking for opportunities on the short side (such as shorting IWM outright with a buy to cover stop at $80.50.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- speaking about the little guy being back, here is what Jeff Saut wrote on Feb 15: "Moreover, the retail investor is nowhere close to fully embracing this rally, which is typically what occurs around intermediate/long-term stock market “tops.”... I think any pullback is for buying."
ReplyDeleteFNSR is getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. I hate fiber optics. Does reaffirm my policy of not holding through earnings as a good one.
ReplyDeleteFNSR miss causing JDSU and ALU to get hit, too. Good hope they knock down ALU hard.
ReplyDeleteSo what did Cook say about RBY that was so bad?
T3d - OCLR was a viable trading vehicle in the optical space a few months ago.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how these experts determine when the little guy has returned? I'm pretty sure they're talking about me, and I never did leave, although since I no longer can seem to identify bargains I've been seriously considering just turning off the monitor and canceling my internet service for a few years...
ReplyDeleteDamn. Pretty hard to imagine what a ceo would have to say other than, "we might file BK", that would knock a stock down 40% AH.
ReplyDeleteFNSR/LNG/JDSU- Knives everywhere!!
FNSR...That has wiped out all but 3 bucks after the last earnings report.
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to bid fnsr I'm not going to bid fnsr, I'm a momentum trader. Ah fuc. Buy limit FNSR 24.76. Maybe I should hope it doesn't fill.
ReplyDeleteTake about kicking a guy in the nuts after a vasectomy....Cramer just called ALU worst of breed.
ReplyDeleteRB- Seeing if it hits the 200?
ReplyDeleteFNSR- Looks like it hit 24.52 already. My charts seem a little off.
ReplyDeleteYes it hit 54.52 it is at $26.00 now i will wait for Pre market see if any of the big boys are going to be dumping. A guidance miss of 13 cents is the catalyst for bringing fiber down?
ReplyDeleteYeah, Cramer just called ALU worst of breed, I caught that, he likes JNPR. Really with ALU long term its all about the cube opportunity, maybe better off in Vegas oh the makt is the casino.
ReplyDeleteKyle, OCLR, I know nothing of this company and just viewed the chart.
Should of jumped in at $25 their must of been a buyer of all shares there.
ReplyDelete$25...What do you mean/see oh wise one?
ReplyDeleteALU - Worst of breed? LOL, he should know, that scumbag is a breeder, an inbreeder! Not that someone else can't come along behind them and put ten pounds of shift in a 5 pound sack...
ReplyDeleteBrent Cook: "DON'T BUY Rubicon Minerals Corporation RMX-T 4.900 Good bunch of guys who’ve done a great lot of work in the Red Lake area. Did a resource estimate and the estimator did not do a top cut on the grades. They’ll have to get a new resource and there could be trouble for the stock. "
Whatever a top cut is I wouldn't know, sounds like something that could be accomplished with a front-end loader? Is RBY the only jr that's being accused of sloppy ore analysis? The "self-imposed" news blackout drives everyone completely nuts, causing them to make all the wrong decisions.
Oh Canada!
A 40 straddle would of been the way to play it.
ReplyDeleteA 5 dollar debit would be worth 15 + option premium. Basiclly $1000 per straddle. 200% gain. Need to add this to the play book.
Too fing funny. The only news item on my feed for LNG is a 8K filling about the 2011 bonus pool.
ReplyDeleteLNG That drop has to be CFO arrested or Govt sugar tit is ending. I can't find anyting significant either in the news. I heard it is still $100 oil right?
ReplyDeleteRB- I found it earlier. This is it.
ReplyDeleteDOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) has filed a lawsuit against Centerbridge Partners LP, saying the distressed investment-focused hedge fund disrupted Cheniere's business with a letter alleging it had defaulted on debt.
Cheniere charged that Centerbridge engaged in defamation, business disparagement and tortious interference with business relationships against it and its Sabine Pass unit, in a lawsuit in the Harris County, Texas, state district court, it said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Tuesday.
Sabine Pass, which is 91% owned by Cheniere, operates a liquefied natural gas terminal on the border of Texas and Louisiana.
Cheniere said Sabine Pass received a letter from Centerbridge saying it strayed from generally accepted accounting principles by recording affiliate payments from Cheniere Energy Investments LLC as revenue. As such, the letter argued, Sabine Pass was in default under the terms of some of its notes, of which Centerbridge said it was a significant holder.
Cheniere said it believes that all of the allegations in the letter are without merit and that Sabine Pass is in full compliance with its indenture.
Not even rumors on LNG in the chat rooms. Real strange.
ReplyDeleteMark, once again: why the fascination with LNG, given how much NG there is in the USA?
ReplyDeleteIs RBY the only jr that's being accused of sloppy ore analysis?
ReplyDeleteBRE-X once had sloppy analysis.
David- I'm not totally up to speed, but the Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana can be bi-directional. LNG has 2 foreign partners that have agreed to put up capital and take delivery. Also, they are the best at what they do, so expertise abroad is highly valued.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Port can chimme in here.
HOUSTON, Jan. 27, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE Amex: CQP) ("Cheniere Partners") announced today that its subsidiary, Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC ("Sabine"), has entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding ("MOU") with Sumitomo Corporation ("Sumitomo"), under which Sumitomo intends to contract up to approximately 1.5 million tonnes per annum ("mtpa") of processing capacity at the Sabine Pass LNG terminal located in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
ReplyDeleteUnder the MOU, Sumitomo and Sabine have agreed to proceed with negotiations of definitive agreements for Sumitomo to contract bi-directional capacity, subject to certain conditions precedent, including but not limited to the receipt by each party of requisite internal approvals, Sabine's receipt of regulatory approvals and making a final investment decision to construct the liquefaction facilities.
"We are pleased to have Sumitomo as a customer at Sabine Pass." said Charif Souki, Chairman and CEO of Cheniere Energy Partners. "With this MOU we have up to 7.7 mtpa of LNG processing capacity reserved. We have reached our targeted capacity for the first two trains and look forward to advancing discussions and entering into definitive agreements."
Cheniere Partners owns 100 percent of the Sabine Pass LNG terminal located in western Cameron Parish, Louisiana on the Sabine Pass Channel. The terminal has sendout capacity of 4.0 Bcf/d and storage capacity of 16.9 Bcfe.
Cramer's take on FNSR:
ReplyDeleteDon't Rush Into the Optical Space Here
by Jim Cramer
Cardinal rule: if a $40 stock goes down 15 points, you have to presume it isn't done. You have to presume that there are still plenty of big boys who haven't gotten out of it yet. That's how I feel about Finisar, which held a secondary offering less than three months ago and gave an outlook tonight that was so ugly that people aren't even bothering to make a call. They want out. The optical space has always been a wild one. It has huge moves up and huge moves down, a la 1999-2000. Finisar has been on a tear in part because JDS Uniphase said things are so good and in part because we knew there's been a shortage of optical product because of, speak of the down dog devil, Netflix and its demand for bandwidth. Now it is Katy-bar-the-door over the name.
Crammers a douche, But I agree there can be a bunch of distribution. Google says there is 102% of institutional ownership. How is that possible. The 52 week low is $11.00 on this stock. I think I will ignore it and trade LNG instead.:)
ReplyDeleteWorking as fast as I can regarding LNG. Damn, you'd think there would be more out there.
ReplyDeleteThis stuff breaks my heart.
ReplyDelete" FrankDaTrader @upsidetrader what's your take on $LNG, a friend owns it, poor guy is crying over the phone, not sure if it's a rumor or for real."
LNG - So we're talking export, and those economics are probably good until Europe begins their own fracking programs?
ReplyDeleteSumitomo probably isn't adverse to selling to Europe or any market, although their interests may lie in Japan?
BRE-X - Wasn't that not only "sloppy" but fraudulent as well?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/03/08/cheniere-energy-shares-plunged-what-you-need-to-kn.aspx
ReplyDeleteLNG: There may be no news on this other than the bubble burst. I owned this stock in the three's during the BP crisis which seems like ages ago, but was really only 6 months. I would still be up 100% if I held on. 100% in 6 months sheeitt why did I sell?
ReplyDeleteLNG - Interesting, 3/19 Max pain is $7...
ReplyDeleteWow just had a Epiphany right when I posted that. Maybe LNG is a harbinger for the entire market? Why am I crying on the phone? Why is the Market down 40%? What is the news? What is the reason? Why?
ReplyDeleteSorry had a 2008 flashback.
Sumitomo - Yes, it makes perfect sense that Japan would want to maintain a contract with as many NG suppliers as possible, they live on an island and are always very conscious about strategic supply disruptions.
ReplyDeleteNot sure how much money it would actually bring to LNG, I would think it would keep the doors open though.
The article from fool.com about LNG led me to one of their related companies CQP, which now has a dividend of 11.1% -- sweet, isn't it? I might sell puts on CQP tomorrow if it stays at the current levels or drops down. Mark -- do you think this dividend can be affected? If not, then we know that the yield-hungry investors will drive its price back up in a short order.
ReplyDeleteOptical? Weren't we just discussing wireless not so long ago? I guess Verizon may be the fiberoptic king, not sure how that's going for them...
ReplyDeleteThe other day while going through airport security, the TSC guy asked me if any unknown persons had given me anything. I admitted yes, but that was back in the 70's and shouldn't have any bearing.
ReplyDeletei still can't believe I got duped into selling F & BAC. what a panzie i am. still reeling from that one....
ReplyDeleteI know how it feels, tof. Consider it par for the course we've been playing.
ReplyDeleteguys - DANG reports in the morning. the basic story on this one is that they are the Amazon.com of China. they are growing really fast...like 50 to 75% annually and are the largest internet retailer in China. Stock should be up huge right? well, no it's not. the reason, i'm convinced, is because of this:
ReplyDeletehttp://irwebreport.com/20110117/dangdang-ceo-morgan-stanley-in-ipo-war-of-words-on-chinese-twitter/
I'm convinced that the stock is being suppressed by the underwriters because the CEO completely trashed them, saying they underpriced their IPO. if you believe that is tin foil nonsense, well take a look at YOKU, another internet company (the Youtube of China) that IPO'd at the same time as DANG. YOKU is not even close to profitable yet (whereas DANG is) yet their stock is doing extremely well. I believe if you have a long enough time horizon, you can make gobs of money with DANG. that is, as long as the CEO has a mea culpa and says he's sorry to the underwriters.
TOF -- if you keep following this strategy of selling when something doesn't feel right, then one day it will save you from big losses, while those that didn't sell yesterday will incur huge losses at some point, from which they may never recover.
ReplyDeleteTOF- That's enough you baby ;)
ReplyDeleteDavid- I have no idea if they can maintain that dividend. It must be like 16% now.
David, "CQP, which now has a dividend of 11.1% -- sweet, isn't it? I might sell puts on CQP tomorrow if it stays at the current levels or drops down. Mark -- do you think this dividend can be affected? If not, then we know that the yield-hungry investors will drive its price back up in a short order."
ReplyDeleteI don't know about that strategy. Is Enron still paying a dividend? Upside is you will get huge premium on your put sell. High yield stock check this one out. I couldn't believe it.
HIMX
TOF- Do you agree DANG's earnings are .10?
ReplyDelete"Is Enron still paying a dividend?"
ReplyDeleteYep. Every week in the shower... from what I've read.
i can't shake this feeling that something ain't right with the market. BAC and the banks basically single handedly lifted the market today right? the leaders didn't do much.
ReplyDelete"BAC and the banks basically single handedly lifted the market today right? the leaders didn't do much."
ReplyDeleteYes.
Following up on those thoughts. Since this chop has begun. Green bars have less volume than red bars. Distribution?
ReplyDeletePrice still pays, Look at a weekly chart of the SPY. All this market has done the last three weeks is form three wee little red hammers. THis usually resolves in the direction of the trend. So I am still very cautiously bullish. I am sure that will give you the confidence you need to trade.
http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SPY&ty=c&ta=0&p=w&s=l
Hmm, good point on financials. Dollar was up too, but looks like T's weren't. Might explain why PM's didn't lift and PM miners slumped.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't expect treasury auctions this week to be taxpayer friendly, but we can be sure when it comes time to turn them over banks will polish them up real nice and shiny... (equities sell off)?
RB- your chart is interesting. Shows that the present situation is milder compared to the last couple downturns. Shows that QE-2 has had a supporting effect, so far. Watch out if prices go the way of APR 2010. Takes a big red candle down.
ReplyDeletePrimary Dealers did the heavy lifting.
ReplyDelete" by Adam Quinones
Treasury just sold $32 billion 3-year notes.
The bid to cover ratio, a measure of auction demand, was 3.22 bids submitted for every 1 accepted by Treasury. This is slightly above both the five and ten auction averages. Furthermore, a bid to cover ratio above 3 is always strong. 31.7% of the competitive bid was awarded at the auction high-yield of 1.298%, which was 1bp below the 1pm "When Issued" yield. Another sign of healthy demand.
Primary Dealers did the heavy lifting here, adding 53.3% of the competitive bid. Compare that to a 52.8% five auction average and 45.9% ten auction average. This has turned into a trend as dealers have been forced to take down larger shares of inventory over the past five fundraisers in the short end of the curve. We contend it is a factor of global inflation fears. Dealers are just picking up the slack of direct and indirect bidders who see inflationary risks eroding their cash flows on a 2-3 year timeline. Accordingly these accounts demand higher yields (lower prices) when underwriting Treasury debt issuances. We might also call out the street as using the auction process to cover short positions and prepare for the next round of Fed QEII coupon purchases. This case can be made based on the uptick in dealer tenders over the past three auctions."
I looked over the Dang numbers. A PEG of over 20! LOL. I don't think I have ever seen that, but hey at least they have earnings. I usually trade stocks that have no earnings. I will not mind chasing this one if it gets momentum behind it. PE and PEG don't mean S. if more people want to buy it than sell it.
ReplyDeleteI just did a screen with my FINVIZ elite. There is actually 62 companies with a higher PEG than DANG. Some are in the hundreds.
ReplyDeleteFINVIZ elite is nice i don't know yet if it is worth the $40 a month. I got it because it can give realtime charts past the prison library firewall! I will let you guys know.
I had a lot of time to think about the markets...One hour during Kendra's BB game. Sure looks like distribution to me. Knives flying off the counter left and right. I'll sleep better in cash here.
ReplyDeleteThe geology company did the analysis and estimates for RBY's 43-101, as is required and normal, not RBY's people. The reason a top cut was not used from what I hear is that the type of deposit RBY has, like the others nearby, get significantly underestimated as compared to actual production, if a top cut is used because they have high grades, and if you assume those high grade globs aren't real, you basically aren't including the best parts of the deposit in the estimates. The same geologist did the 43-101's for other companies in the red lake area and is well respected.
ReplyDeleteI personally believe the 4 mm oz resource number is at least good, but I don't like hearing pie in the sky "potential" numbers of 13 or 16 mm oz, because its so big, and I admit I can't understand what confidence level they would have that it would be there if it hasn't been found yet. I suspect there might also be deeper gold like the other mines nearby, but am not as confident that it exists if the drills haven't been that deep yet.
That's why I keep my expectations and analysis to the 4 mm number. Anyway, at 200,000 oz per year, it will take 20 yrs to mine the first 4 mm oz. That gives plenty of time to find more, deeper, if its there.
Mark - Yeah I'm resigned to just sit and wait this out barring a buy here or there on panic selling in any given security that I like. I'd rather buy a confirmed upside breakout than sit here and get shredded to pieces because of this volatility. I'm up nicely this year and I don't want to give up my gains.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, our little girl (FTFL) is all grown up...she's graduation to the big leagues this month. Still pays a nice dividend although the valuation ain't all that attractive unless I'm missing something.
If the pullback in F did not finish yesterday and today was not a start of a move to new highs, then we might as well conclude that the strong long-term upmove from March 2009 is over. Hence, I am placing a sell stop order at $13.98/$13.95 for all my 2K shares of F.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-day-rage-saudi-arabia-march-11-send-price-oil-unprecedented-territory
ReplyDeleteI personally think it will be a non-event. In any case, however, day trading on Friday might be fun. :)
by the way, HEK reports on Monday. if we get a big dip I will have cash on hand. i think we need to be focused on the fact that oil will be high for a while, if not forever. Nat Gas is now officially in play.
ReplyDeleteCP > you mentioned something the other day about Nat Gas that got me thinking: is Nat Gas in cars safe?
http://alternativefuels.about.com/od/naturalgaspropane/a/safenaturalgas.htm
ReplyDeleteRealtime charts could be an advantageous feature.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Natty - My concern wasn't actually questioning safety so much as questioning the motives of special interest groups that seem to have made sure we couldn't use light hydrocarbons as refrigerants.
ReplyDeleteI haven't read your article find but intend to, hopefully it presents a pro case in favor of light hydrocarbons.
RBY - CB - So what's your sense, is RBY in for additional downside pain? My sense at the moment is yes.
ReplyDeleteNGAS, Coal etc.
ReplyDeleteInternational Energy Outlook 2010, courtesy of ea32da32 at CC.
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/electricity.html
I think I will just watch the action today, educational. I will not have time to babysit these stocks,but my must see tv list is:
ReplyDeleteFNSR JDSU SWKS LNG HERO DANG STP ROYL.
Should be a fun day.
On RBY, those few left holding it are very stubborn people like me, I think, who own it for its future value, regardless of what the market thinks today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI think the last of the panicking retail might be done selling. I heard IR has been getting 60 calls a day from panicked shareho;ders, s bottom has to be getting close.
Of course if the news is eventually very bad, any bottom put in today will evaporate.
RBY - Well I managed to sell 1/3 of my position @ 4.87, to free up some cash and wait for the fallout to subside.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it may have already...
The winning knife was LNG.
ReplyDeleteMan, HERO's earnings were REALLY good. Damn.
LNG is queen of the PROM.
ReplyDeleteLong 25 x FNSR March $28 calls at $0.85...this sucker has strength and I'm ok with taking a small risk.
ReplyDeleteAPP- That always sucks when your CEO is involved in a sex slave lawsuit.
ReplyDeleteRBY - I pulled my earlier order too quick, I probably coulda sold it all at $4.87.
ReplyDeleteSo just now I repurchased the 1/3 @ $4.80, trying to keep the weak hands from dragging me down with them...
Okay, so where's that $1570 gold? Come on RBY and come on July 4th, I wanna be out on the lake doing 70 in the 455 Olds jet boat! Speaking of which I haven't turned that thing over a complete revolution in two years, gonna go do that today while I'm thinking of it and make sure it isn't stuck... Good excuse not to watch the screen.
MDW - Down -14%????? WTF?
ReplyDeleteDid options on the wrong bounce...look at LNG...wow.
ReplyDeletewouldn't it be wild if LNG retraced all of it's losses from yesterday?
ReplyDeleteT3D- Didn't the report you sent me have MDW at 1.85?
LNG - Another example of the dirty manipulative games sometimes played by shorts?
ReplyDeleteBuild a huge short position, then hire a dirtball lawyer to bring frivolous suit...
I don't see it right now. At the close.
ReplyDeleteIs someone trying to screw with the goldbugs while they're walking around the PDAC grinning at each other?
ReplyDeleteOIH is red while crude is nicely green, ain't that a pretty sight?
ReplyDeleteLong FNSR stock at $25.83
ReplyDeleteSetting my stop on FNSR at $25.35. Man I just need to stick to cash until I get a better read on things.
ReplyDeleteApparently, traders in US and in Canada have very different perspectives on inflation: ECU.TO is bidding at $1.06 now in real time, while ECUXF is bidding at $1.11! The Canadian dollar is only 1.026 of USD, so the 5c spread between ECU.TO and ECUXF can only be explained by the extra eagerness of the traders on this side of the border to own PMs...
ReplyDeleteI have a buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $1.10 and so far only 3000 shares were filled when it dipped to $1.10 earlier today.
The metals complex looks quite sickly, FCX appears to be in a clear down trend and Shanghai copper inventories are at high levels.
ReplyDeleteHigh oil prices are putting the brakes on our beloved rally while gold only seems to be treading water.
Precarious, is the term that comes to mind.
Decided not to sell my FNSR; however, I will be putting a stop in at 25.3 because if that spike down wasn't intended to clear out stops then a break below it is for real.
ReplyDeleteOutside of this small position I have a 10% SPY index fund position which I will probably close at the end of the day and will be 100% in cash.
The remaining 2K shares of ECUXF were just filled for me at $1.10. Placing a sell limit at $1.15 for all 5K shares purchased today at $1.10. Long live the money pump! :)
ReplyDeleteRBY - It's become quite clear to me now; last one in is a rotten egg or a nerd, take your pick!
ReplyDeleteOnly a nerd could be selling this thing at this point, while a prudent investor would be keeping some cash prepared for deployment once the nerds begin to capitulate.
Notice PM's catching a bid here? Chitty-chitty DANG-DANG?
Checking in for the first time today. One of the first comments that engendered a double-take:
ReplyDeleteCTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
The equity market is, I believe, looking to break out of its malaise this morning and move to a higher level. Call it a sense I have.
My first clue is the strengthening prices of the eight European banks I monitor early in the morning – two from Germany, two from Italy, three from France, and one from Denmark. Earlier today, while the German and French bourses were strong, these banks were almost all in the red; but at 7am ET I felt they were coming around.
2nd - I hope so...a break either way is what I am looking for.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm looking for a break of more than a day or two. I suspect there is a good chance will get a head fake out of the range
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like home builders are doing well. I think we're getting closer and closer to the point where we should be considering them for a longer term investment. I understand the inventory issues.
ReplyDeleteSome say the US GDP is 70% consumer spending driven. I'd be willing to bet it's more like 70% government spending driven. Hell, the US military alone is the world's largest single consumer of petroleum, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteThe shoe has been on the other foot for over two decades now, it's time to make like an Egyptian and take that shoe off to hurl at representatives of good-ol-boys club.
Sold the last of my 90% silver today. Unfortunately I will need to pay taxes on the profits, which are not real, just the debasement of the dollar.
ReplyDeleteI KNOW this for a fact, because the silver literally were DOLLARS and HALF DOLLARS.
The criminals are the ones in charge...
"PIMCO Total Return dumps treasury bond holdings"
ReplyDeleteBill Gross throws the first shoe?
CREE.
ReplyDeleteStops hit on FNSR.
ReplyDeletedecided to hold on to my idiotic call position on FNSR...down about $1,200 on those. remind me again why i bother with options.
ReplyDeleteWorst Dog holds up best
ReplyDeleteALU -1.99%
JDSU -14.42%
FNSR -36.89%
OCLR -17.63%
Yeah Mark MDW at 1.90 based on 1050 gold.
T3D- Add EMKR to the list with fleas...
ReplyDeleteEMKR -20%
Good god...Who is the geek from Schwab on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Check this out. Last night I was checking something on NASDAQ.com and a pop up screen came up for CHGI.
ReplyDeleteDaddy's watching :)
Looking at my watch list, you'd think the SPX would be off 30.
ReplyDeleteMark > I actually bailed on CHGI for the past several trading days between 2 and 2.1...mostly in the 2.03 area i think. it should probably pop now, given my recently trading history.
ReplyDeletei'm moving everything into cash at the close here. everything that was strong before is weak now based on what i watch. AAPL, GOOG, BTU, WLT, FCX, EBAY, AA, NFLX...all weak. however, i have vivid memory of bailing at just the wrong time in late november because the action felt the same and then we gapped higher and i had to chase it. i feel more comfortable, though, having to chase it higher than being the last pig out the door as we all race to the exits.
ALU, People probablly already feel like it is priced for failure.Pretty impressive going on my watch list.
ReplyDeleteCB - Which does your concern involve: devaluation, or taxation? Devaluation is a form of taxation, which I think of as a currency tax, and 70% of US currency is out of country?
ReplyDeleteWell, I guess we all know what's likely to happen with oil prices on Saudia Arabia's "day of rage" scheduled for Friday...
ReplyDeleteI don't imagine it will be good for the equities market, just as I suspect it won't be good for PM's either.
I'm just wondering if it's all priced in already?
CP > i think the day of rage will probably be a dud...hmmm maybe i should be bullish then.
ReplyDeleteseriously, though, isn't this what bull markets do? they throw as many people off as possible while continuing their way up. i don't think i could have stayed long the whole way up from 1982 to 2000.
CP- It's priced in. They asked me to do it, and I did it 6 days ago. Sorry, I thought I posted that.
ReplyDeleteYardeni is pretty bullish on CNBC right now. SPX 1500 EOY. I've always thought he was a pretty straight forward guy.
ReplyDeleteCrap Mark, you're always up to sneaky stuff while lurking around backstage! Don't forget to teach Harlan those moves!
ReplyDeleteALU - We all know Crammer wouldn't know a dog if it were to piss on his leg.
ReplyDeleteMark - In order to avoid confusion while teaching him, I suggest you start small with the basics and gradually work your way up to "The Back Attack"!
ReplyDeleteShannon GOOD Video on where we are at technically in the overall market, a few stocks and his take on F (blue oval) at the end. I like his even keeled approach.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.alphatrends.net/
guys - our favorite crap stock, REDF, just broke a downtrend line from mid jan on decent volume. i'm not saying it's going higher but keep it in mind.
ReplyDeletealso, Ted Spread jumped up some more today...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Laszlo Birinyi newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2367 comments) on Wed, 03/09/2011 - 18:18 #81207
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/67469124/
I'm 100% in cash right now...but I agree with him.
DANG-DANG! WTF, over? Looks like mean ol Mr. Market up to his old tricks there too...
ReplyDeleteLNG - $7.42 now, MP is $7, so it's probably near safe? Who the heck knows...!
Could'a been the whiskey, might'a been the gin. Or, oh what a feeling, look at the mess I'm in?:
ReplyDelete"The equity market is, I believe, looking to break out of its malaise this morning and move to a higher level. Call it a sense I have."
Here is what I'm watching:
ReplyDeleteGLD > looks like it's is on the verge of a breakout
BAC > still hasn't broken downtrend from the mid Jan highs...tagged it yest/today
REDF > broke out of downtrend on higher volume
PIR > still building out in the wedge like the rest of the market
IMMR > earnings tomorrow AH...i love this story long term
HEK > earnings 3/14
BTU > False breakout but uptrend in tact...could be a buy at $63.5 50 DMA
EBAY > still in a good short term/long term trend; right at 50 DMA. I think it will go to $40 this year.
SHZ - Folks are finally beginning to realize there aren't any rare earth's there.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Come to find out GMO may have been green earlier today due to the rare earth craze being rekindled.
I would've sold GMO for a reload if I'd known, I need to start doing this.
Sorry one more: RAS...support at 50 DMA
ReplyDeleteRAS - I've still got that one on my radar, haven't given up on it yet.
ReplyDeleteI was going to work that one as opposed to RBY, but I think I've got a better handle on what's making RBY tick...
big stocks that are doing the false break down are getting ppl ready to short. i think market does a false breakdown...everyone is watching this wedge saying when it breaks i will pile on short or long. make ur list of the strong stocks...those will reverse the hardest after what i think will be a false breakdown. that's why i posted that list above. those look quite strong.
ReplyDeleteNKSH - This is a real long shot, but this bank seems nearly impervious to selling.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly enough, and here's where the long shot comes in; it's also in the neighborhood of the largest uranium deposit in the US, although that deposit would have a long way to go before obtaining any permits besides the already granted exploratory permits.
I'm "only" 40% cash now but not happy with recent losses (CSCO, RJA, RBY, ENI (utility entered JAN 11) and even BWEN (entered MAR 4). GLD and CYB (Yuan) are major holds and still profitable. Might have to kick in the mental stops on some.
ReplyDeleteGLD - I just can't imagine this one would/could break out if the market were to sell off, there aren't many instances in the charts where I've seen such an event.
ReplyDeleteMaybe "this time it's different"? Sure would be interesting if it did, along with the response of miners.
illini - FWIW, my firm personal opinion is RBY has the gold, and possibly more than estimated.
ReplyDeleteThis smacks of a serious bear raid attempt. I plan to add once/if a real washout materializes, else I'm happy with my current position.
CP- Been in and out of RBY , profits for all. Am looking to add at this point but my eyes glazed over late afternoon and I reclined when at 4.70, which I thought was close to a very good 2nd entry. When I came back it was 4.66 and closed. I know it's against Gartman's rules to buy lower but I don't see that price as anything but an opportunity, intermediate to long term.
ReplyDelete