Thursday, March 31, 2011
4/1/11 Jobs/ Hammer The Blues
Mentally gaming reaction to the jobs report for kicks.
http://tinyurl.com/4hgjah9
We gotta dig the groove
We're gonna hammer the blues
You can't sit down
'Cause we got a job to do.
We gotta dig the groove
We're gonna hammer the blues
You can't sit down
'Cause we got a job to do.
Ten men workin',
ten men workin' tonight.
Downside surprise:
(a) They buy the dip. (I would sell the spike up.)
(b) Market sells off in first hour. Then sells off further in last hour.
Upside surprise:
(a) They sell the news. (I would buy the dip.)
(b) Market rises over the next several hours. (I would sell into it.)
(c) Sells off in final hour.
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cb- I couldn't be happier. Let me play that broken record again- don't forget to sell. Nothing stays up forever.
ReplyDeleteI think we rally hard on jobs. That would be a great time to take profits.
ReplyDeleteI'm almost inclined to take April off. Sort of a 'Sell in March, Back in May' strategy.
ReplyDeleteSell in March, Back in May
ReplyDeleteMarketwatch headline-
http://www.marketwatch.com/
I would wager that the May view of April will validate the 'Keep Out' sign they're flashing.
"Nothing stays up forever." Ok, but a good stock like like CSCO or INTC won't stay down forever either. RBY? It has not reached its potential yet.
ReplyDeleteillini- I agree, although I would change the phrase to 'good companies.'
ReplyDeleteRBY is going to seesaw on its way to reaching full potential.
Seesaw it does and will until there is a buyout or production.
ReplyDeletec'mon 2nd! we're still what like 2 months away from the end of QE2? and we have yet to see an IPO from Groupon/LinkedIn/Twitter. I say we continue to rally until May and saying sell in May and go away happens, just like last year. But milder this time around. While I don't think this economy will fall without QE2, i have to respect the fact that just about everything thinks it will, which will cause a drop at some point. Ultimately, it should be for buying in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess I see a great buying opportunity coming up in about 1-2 months...probably a chance to pick up another 20% or so on a panic selloff. The question is: what do we buy? I would say we need to pay close attention to the leaders heading into the selloff. Those are probably the ones to buy.
My thinking is that the end of QE2 means a change in sentiment about commodities which deflates the prices of them temporarily and which means the perception that high oil prices will kill our recovery goes away. So it's a self fulfilling prophesy that ultimate leads to a good buying opportunity. And higher prices.
*just about **everyone** thinks it will*
ReplyDeleteApril Fools' Day newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5439 comments) on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 21:10 #82803
ReplyDeleteMax frustration? We add 250k jobs. DJIA gaps up +100 points. 6P throws caution to the wind and buys in. Indexes float near the gap-up point all day. Sells off hard in last 30 minutes. Then gains it all back next week- not.
No, you got it right the first time. Everything thinks it will.
ReplyDeleteEverything....I guess that takes in everyone and all things likes corporations and computers. Real group think.
ReplyDeleteAfter thinking it over- I have a hard time seeing CSCO/HPQ/INTC/WFC going down much even with a market pullback. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteI'm just happy there wasn't anything actually wrong at RBY. I expect it will take a while to shake out the traders. My experience says that takes a couple years to evolve, and after about the 1st year of good profits, things are priced in.
ReplyDeleteI hope your right but history is not on our side. The correlation with the market in a panic is still strong. I held INTC through the worst times in 08/09 but sold too soon. I bought it well under $20, maybe 19 which I thought was a bargain.
ReplyDeleteINTC---bought @ 18.74 9/22/08, sold 16.28 5/4/09. Thought it was a bargain in Sep 08 just after the market troubles began. Low of 11.22-33 in Nov and March. Did not have the nerves to hold on during uprise but have more confidence now with TA and my Stops & Targets algo.
ReplyDeleteBTW, Stops and Targets is presently all green on the 3 major indices which is all I subscribe to. It did flash on the recent correction which at least kept me in more cash at the time. Correction indicators were not strong enough to go short for the preferred 3 to 1 gain ratio.
ReplyDeleteBTU - 4/16 Max Pain is $65
ReplyDeleteINTC - Sitting on the lower trend line here, bounced off the bottom of 200SMA. I can imagine it's not an unacceptable risk in this area. Check, the RSI's, etc... Could it dip to below the trend line? Sure, it can't just continue up from here without shaking loose some newer entries.
ReplyDelete4/16 Max Pain is $21
Qwazy Qadufi still alive and kickin'??
ReplyDeleteWonder if Cushing storage is full tonight? DTO starting to look like a buy.
ReplyDeleteAre high oil prices really that big of a deal? I mean for the average person that gets 20 mpg, you're talking what? Maybe 45 gallons a month x $1.00 per gallon. So $45 a month extra?
ReplyDeleteBoy I took a look at CSCO and it sure does look cheap man. $17/share. They have $28 Billion in net cash vs mkt cap of $95 Billion so about 30% cash. They're averaging about $9 Billion in free cash flow per year...so 10 times FCF:
ReplyDeletehttp://financials.morningstar.com/cash-flow/cf.html?t=CSCO®ion=USA&culture=en-us
Add in a 1.4% dividend that will most likely be growing pretty steadily. Not too shabby.
I was looking more at NLS and I didn't realize that they paid dividends of $0.10/quarter for 4 years. Man if they ever returned to that it would amount to a 14% dividend yield. Wishful thinking.
MTZ may be positioned in a nice sweet spot here. Heavy construction doesn't sound great, but what they build does. "One well-run construction company turned in three profitable years during the recession. That company is MasTec (NYSE: MTZ), a $1.6 billion company that was founded in 1929. MasTec has operations primarily in the Southeast, but also has a substantial national presence. It builds and maintains electrical transmission lines, wind and solar farms, and other utility and communications infrastructure."
ReplyDeleteRe: Employment slightly above consensus @ 216k newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5440 comments) on Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:41 #82840 (in reply to #82839)
ReplyDeleteDIA is just below the 52-wk high. SPY has further to run to take out the February 18 high. I would have expected a stronger spike on the number, especially with 'unemployment' (see Grym's earlier post) 'down' to 8.8%.
We may see a delayed reaction.
Bought more JDSU on the dip (from Marks congratulatory comment yesterday).
ReplyDeleteX/AA...Not so encouraging.
ReplyDelete"I would have expected a stronger spike on the number"
ReplyDeleteCould be priced in already?
I noticed a few minutes ago copper opened down -1.9%, and was down for the week aside from yesterday, which coulda' been a technical bounce in a trend lower?
That said, I thought metals looked like they were headed for a trend reversal to the upside, coulda' been a bounce.
Not sure about all of this, but I do like the way S&P is looking.
Oil - I really don't know if $110 is too much, but $120 might be. If the trend doesn't relax, at some point it will be too much (I don't like the uptrend).
Added more JDSU at $19.3. Where's the freaking bounce?
ReplyDeleteAny news on JDSU. I can't find any and may hop in.
ReplyDeleteNLS looking great!
ReplyDeleteMark > JDSU is down on negative earnings on EXFO. JDSU is the clear leader in the optical market in my opinion. The only one with excellent earnings and guidance.
ReplyDeletei think JDSU should be bought up here...look at what happened to LVS after yesterday's dip. Not saying they're the same but JDSU is the leader in its sector and it is getting dragged down by weak competitors.
ReplyDeleteGetting your bounce.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but LVS caught an upgrade today. I'll keep an eye on JDSU, but damn, the action in EXFO is severe.
ReplyDeletePretty good buying pressure in PXP so far RB.
ReplyDeleteWPRT..I guess everyone believed Obama.
ReplyDeleteCSCO/HPQ/INTC/WFC Closed> Cashing Out 'Til May
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5442 comments) on Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:35 #82861
CSCO/HPQ/INTC/WFC Closed @ 17.22/40.70/20.02/32.08.
Thought about keeping core positions, but I tend to be an all-or-none kind of guy when it comes to market direction. Taking a trading holiday until May. I have a slightly-less-than 7% YTD gain, which I plan to protect. Obviously, I think the indexes move down from here (not intended as trading advice).
Mark - I think JDSU should be aggressively bought here...it's down on the same old news yet the company reported excellent earnings in Feb with better than expected guidance. How many times can you sell it off on competitors weak earnings when it is doing well?
ReplyDeletePXP - Mark, I don't know why you don't like it, chart looks pretty good to me for now... The situation in the ME doesn't seem to be resolving last I heard, that could change and I'm hoping it does, for numerous reasons.
ReplyDeleteMe no like high oil, I should be long b/c of fundies. I was long when oil was $10 a couple years ago and got shaken out if you can imagine that! ;)
JDSU - Testing lower trend line and volume is high, looks optimistic to me, just shaking out weak hands?
ReplyDeleteKeeping an eye on that trend line here, camel's back?
Reminds me of yesterday's NKE chart, which was a buy.
GL guys!
ReplyDeleteI moved all of my remaining cash into JDSU at $19.33. Will probably sell before the end of the day if it bounces
ReplyDeletePXP Is my friend. Stoppeed out of SGI for a 4% gain. Stopped out of SRZ for 4% loss that could of been a 10% loss if I did not keep hard stops. I guess wallstreet hates old people. All others in commodity space look great.
ReplyDeleteRBY - $5.08 was the low, but I wasn't there to buy. I'm certainly not gonna trade my position under $5.50, they can take a hike, I'd rather add.
ReplyDeleteI owned FNSR for a month and it was my best trade of the year, so I am an expert in fiber optics. I have never seen a sector trade in union with each other so well. There seems to be little difference in price reaction between the shit names and best in breed. When one goes up they all go up. When one goes down they all go down.In addition to EXFO FNSR is getting sued for not being forth right with their inventory on their earning report. But that story is a few days old and should be priced in. Cloud is getting hammered also. Indicates a weak market to me. At least in NEW tech.
ReplyDeleteMATW - I'd have to sell if I had a position there...
ReplyDeleteCYD - Jesus!
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys seeing a print of 21.55 in RES on an intraday chart?
ReplyDeleteRES - Both YHOO and FINVIZ show $21.55, I'm not currently logged into my brokerage account which promptly logs me out every 1/2 hour...
ReplyDeleteIB has 26.00 high and 21.55 as low
ReplyDeleteSGI gave me the ole rinse and POP treatment for a 4 % round trip from the close. Hate getting played
ReplyDeleteWho da thunk one could day trade a Co. like V and make coin.
ReplyDeleteBidding RNOW and GMO for Breakouts
ReplyDeleteRNOW filled, GMO buy stop at 5.56.
ReplyDeleteBuy stop Soda 46.26
ReplyDeleteXLE selling off pretty hard here.
ReplyDeleteSold my JDSU long now my only long is NLS...i bought some SPY April 16 $136 puts at $2.98 avg. Oil is not gonna help this market at these levels unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteSo, are we going to give it all back like so many other employment days? Or is this just another shake out? I say the latter.
ReplyDeleteShort Keg. Out HERO up 12%.
ReplyDeleteThere goes soda!!
ReplyDeleteMark > I think we might actually close red and pull back to 1,300 to 1,310 in the next few days as we digest higher oil.
ReplyDeleteI'm Out soda even. That thing has a 15 cent spread. Which makes a wild ride!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Wouldn't really surprise me either.
ReplyDeleteGMO - There's no reason for a breakout I know of, there is a public open house on the Tue. the 5th, free doughnuts and coffee, "come hear our business plan".
ReplyDeleteHey, maybe they introduce the public release version of environmental impact statement too?
Maybe... It should happen soon and maybe creates some short-lived enthusiasm?
Maybe someone actually noticed oil is higher and copper is lower...?!?
ReplyDeleteFriggin A RB. I had about 50 SODA jokes all lined up.
ReplyDeleteI am kinda disappointed that ECU did not zoom after releasing its earnings. I thought that they will, for a change, have positive earnings in Q4, given the strong rise in silver that happened that quarter. While their revenues for quarters 1 through 4 of 2010 were $3M, $4M, $M5, $6M, it looks like they kept using the generated cash for exploration purposes, and so no cash remained as net income. The investor rep did tell me that ECU is a "resource story" right now, not a "production story." So I guess I'll have to wait until the economic feasibility report comes out and all those resources will be viewed in a new light. So I have just removed all my sell limit orders on ECU and decided not to look at that stock for a year, so as to hopefully find it above $2 in a year and book a nice long-term gain.
ReplyDeleteRe: "US Stocks Rise On Jobs Optimism; DJIA Sets Fresh High" newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5443 comments) on Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:32 #82888 (in reply to #82885)
ReplyDeleteI'm with you on that, jack. Sometimes it seems headlines time the market better than any other indicator.
As for Chinese auto parts stocks, I think I have to accept the fact that while they offer a great value now, the investors are scared shitless, and so the downtrend is likely to persist for a while. Thus, I will refrain from adding to my positions in that sector until the stocks I follow make a higher low and a higher high on a daily chart.
ReplyDeleteRe: call me crazy newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5444 comments) on Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:37 #82890 (in reply to #82875)
ReplyDeleteI'm not following silver, but in my experience: the crazier people think you are to short silver here, the more likely you are to be right. JMO.
"Maybe someone actually noticed oil is higher and copper is lower...?!? "
ReplyDeleteCP > funny how traders work. I noticed oil all day long but things were not breaking down so I didn't mind. But when AAPL starting caving I figured the market was ready to cave too. The dip is small though and we're well in the green on the SPY and DIA so no worries yet.
2000 GMO @ 5.27.
ReplyDelete+.85% on the day and +22.44% for Q1. (According to Schwab).
ReplyDeleteAt the bar!!
TOF - Yep, I can't shake my suspicion that oil over $100 is the real problem, as much as I hate to admit.
ReplyDeleteJudging by the 4/16 max-pain calculator though, it seems BTU(MP=$65) is a bull trap and INTC(MP=$21) is a bear trap. Judging by the action in these, the MP calculator is FUBAR. But wait, it gets better, IYT looks strong. WTF, over????
When I look at it from an oil/copper/PM perspective, I tend to think oil is the best long position to own. If this sucker reverses to the downside everything else runs like a big dog, IMO.
What's a mother to do!
Have a nice weekend everyone, I need a day or two off!
GMO,
ReplyDeleteThat is why I like to use Buy stop to confirm actual breakout. Next time I t breaches 5.50 will be a charm. I will keep my Buy stop at 5.56. The funny thing is I think many speculators think GMO is a rare earth play. I think that accounts for some of its volitility.
GMO - They can take their RE's and shove 'em up their tooklaroochie!
ReplyDeleteWow I didn't notice SODA the last hour. 2.00 up and 1.50 give back. That thing is way to volitile for me. I will stick to something safe like junior oil drillers.
ReplyDeleteJeez...my individual accounts are up 67% YTD. I can't help but think of comments that Ken Fisher said to try to temper my enthusiasm for these returns because there is no way in hell they continue and I don't want to be chasing returns. So prior to the close I decided to sell most of my positions...holding a few SPY $136 puts expiring April 16 and about 10k shs NLS...rest is in cash.
ReplyDeleteHere are Ken Fisher's comments from 20 years ago:
“Here’s the paradox: the odds are overwhelming I will end up richer by aiming for a good return rather than a brilliant return – and sleep better en route. Folks who seek a killing usually get killed. Gunslingers get shot, and often in the foot, with their own guns. While there is always some guy around on a red-hot streak, his main function is to tempt the rest of us into becoming fools and paupers. A return of 15% to 20% annually is a lot more than most folks realize, or need. If a 30-year old with $10,000 in an IRA gets 15% annually, he’ll be a millionaire before normal retirement. That’s the power of compound interest. If that same 30-year old were to sock away another $2,000 per year at 15%, he would end up as a 65-year old $3 million fat cat. At 20%, it’s an incredible $13 million. That’s a lot, but it’s not too much to ask. The two most definitive studies ever on long-term returns, the Ibbotson/Sinquefield and Fisher/Lorie studies, both point to average annual returns for stocks of 9% plus per year going back to the mid-1920s. So 15% to 20% per year is really 66% to 100% better than the market as a whole. That’s tough but doable. Consistency is the key. It is close to impossible to get a good, long-term, rate of return if you suffer serious negative numbers en route. It’s the math. A single year that is down 30% means you have to get 30% per year positive returns for the next four years to get back on track for a 15% annual average. Or, if you score 20% annually for four years, and then suffer a 30% decline, your five-year average return is only 7%.”
... Ken Fisher, Forbes, 1989
"+.85% on the day and +22.44% for Q1. (According to Schwab)."
ReplyDeleteThat's great, Mark! Congratulations!
I, on the other hand, am down about that much in Q1...
"Jeez...my individual accounts are up 67% YTD."
ReplyDeleteThat's even better, TOF. :)
David - What's your take on the market going forward? I was thinking we would run up to 1,340 again and then come back in to the 1,300 area...now i'm not sure.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Great job man. And I hear you.
ReplyDeleteThe wicker rocket reports on thur.
TOF, one thing I know about the market: I'll short it BIG time if FOMC announces that QE2 is not being extended. However, I think they are more likely to extend it than not, and it looks like "smart money" thinks the same way judging from the way all market dips get bought. If they do extend QE2 into QE3, then sky is the limit as we will be heading toward high inflation and possibly hyperinflation. US Debt monetization has never happened before, and so this time IS really different.
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