Sunday, April 10, 2011
4/10/11 Bullitt/ The Ultimate Trading Lesson
Re: Bullitt/ The Ultimate Trading Lesson newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5494 comments) on Sun, 04/10/2011 - 12:16 #83564 (in reply to #83560)
kaimu- Mahalo!
Bullitt went way beyond 'a fast-paced action, cop movie' to become an indelible image of the late sixties in America. And McQueen remains the ultimate working-class hero, always attentive to behind-the-scenes players, both on location and in daily life. I would bet the line in the film where he acknowledges the nurse who brings him the sandwich/glass of milk was his idea.
Buckling in for the chassis-pounding chase down Nob Hill and the anti-climactic crash on Guadalupe Canyon Road? That's a trading treatise with analogies to emotional control, one-upmanship and bold moves in every scene.
Watch the full chase scene here:
http://tinyurl.com/y4plshv
You can't tell me you don't experience every emotion encountered while day trading. The combination of Lalo Schifrin's score + the throttle of a Mustang- does that not define a long entry into a short squeeze?
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That is quite a chase scene. Hope my ride on the RBY roller coaster doesn't end with a fiery crash.
ReplyDeleteIllini- I'm pretty sure David has a position in SORL.
ReplyDeleteHuachuca City, AZ
ReplyDeletehttp://www.city-data.com/picfilesc/picc73878.php
Someone has a funny definition of green.
Lumber futures are down a lot since mid-March. Seemingly going in wrong direction considering all the wood Japan will need to rebuild. Then again, the ETF CUT has gone up. Whose right?
ReplyDeleteThere has been a significant change since we last spoke, but not in the way you might think. Things are better.
ReplyDeleteThis is a very misunderstood market. There is a large contingent of fund managers, traders, and investors who have missed a major part of the rally. This has come from a permanent focus on worries and headwinds, without any effort at quantification. Mystified by the most hated rally in history, those who have been wrong call this a “suckers’ rally” and attribute everything to the Fed and money printing.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262539-jeff-miller-tripling-down-on-energy-producers?source=feed
2nd_ave: the POS sector right now is the Chinese auto parts stocks. THEY will DEFINITELY double within a year (WATG, SORL, CAAS).
ReplyDeleteIllini: I posted about SORL a few weeks ago pretty much along the same lines as you did. It was trading at $8+ then and I sold $7.50 puts on it for $0.65, thinking that I will surely pocket the premium on those. Those puts were assigned to me, and my cost basis of $6.85 seems quite high now. But I am not worried -- I am sure SORL will double within a year. And so will WATG and CAAS.
Thanks David. I may take a fling on SORL this week. The chart on Friday looked like an earthquake hit as it oscillated up and down on very high volume.
ReplyDeleteFrom Patrick's Post-Close report on Friday:
ReplyDelete"Miners (GDX+2.16%) notched strong gains capping off a very impressive weekly performance. The group seems to be on the launching pad, all the ingredients in place for an explosive move higher.
While gold and silver have been methodically marching higher, GDX is still beneath its December peak, meaning the group potentially has a lot of ground to make up on a relative basis."
What Patrick forgot to mention is that gold has been moving in a staircase fashion for the past 5 years: a surge higher followed by a sideways consolidation followed by another surge higher, etc. Last week, gold broke through its resistance at $1440 and is most likely at early stages for a powerful thrust higher (given that silver has already led the way). While GDXJ has not been responsive to silver's move over the past 3 months, it has responded promptly to gold's move last week. In fact, GDXJ has been outperforming GLD since March 17, when S&P has bottomed after the Japanese events. So this is a classical environment when GDXJ performs VERY WELL: it has already started outperforming GLD, GLD itself broke through resistance, and silver has been leading the way for quite a while. I suggest you guys place some buy stop orders on GDXJ so as to catch it on the way up.
Illini: Friday was a big day for Chinese auto parts stocks, with CAAS zooming up 32% and those short WATG and SORL getting a preview of what will happen to them in the near future.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the "Fiscal Policy" section of Bernanke's speech in February 2011:
ReplyDeletehttp://wallstcheatsheet.com/ben-bernanke/the-economic-outlook-and-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-3.html
In particular, check out the following projection of his (I am sure he is being overly optimistic about government receipts due to higher than actual GDP growth):
"For example, under plausible assumptions about how fiscal policies might evolve in the absence of major legislative changes, the Congressional Budget Office CBO projects the deficit to fall from its current level of about 9 percent of gross domestic product (NYSE:GDP) to 5 percent of GDP by 2015, but then to rise to about 6-1/2 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. In subsequent years, the budget situation is projected to deteriorate even more rapidly, with federal debt held by the public reaching almost 90 percent of GDP by 2020 and 150 percent by 2030, up from about 60 percent at the end of fiscal year 2010."
So now you understand why gold will keep going up in a straight line for years, and McEwen's prediction of $300/oz silver and $5000/oz gold by 2015 is very realistic.
Along the same lines, here is the latest monthly essay by Bill Gross:
ReplyDeletehttp://canada.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2011/Skunked.htm
Here is an excerpt from it:
"Previous Congresses (and Administrations) have relied on the assumption that we can grow our way out of this onerous debt burden. Perhaps we could, if it was only $9.1 trillion, as shown in Chart 2. That would be 65% of GDP and well within reasonable ranges for sovereign debt burdens. But that is not the reality. As others, such as Pete Peterson of the Blackstone Group and Mary Meeker, have shown much better and for far longer than I, the true but unrecorded debt of the U.S. Treasury is not $9.1 trillion or even $11-12 trillion when Agency and Student Loan liabilities are thrown in, but $65 trillion more! This country appears to have an off-balance-sheet, unrecorded debt burden of close to 500% of GDP! We are out-Greeking the Greeks, dear reader.
If so, and if the USA were a corporation, then it would probably have a negative net worth of $35-40 trillion once our “assets” were properly accounted for, as pointed out by Mary Meeker and endorsed by luminaries such as Paul Volcker and Michael Bloomberg in a recent piece titled “USA Inc.” However approximate and subjective that number is, no lender would lend to such a corporation. Because if that company had a printing press much like the U.S. with an official “reserve currency” seal of approval affixed to every dollar bill, that lender/saver would have to know that the only way out of the dilemma, absent very large entitlement cuts, is to default in one (or a combination) of four ways: 1) outright via contractual abrogation – surely unthinkable, 2) surreptitiously via accelerating and unexpectedly higher inflation – likely but not significant in its impact, 3) deceptively via a declining dollar– currently taking place right in front of our noses, and 4) stealthily via policy rates and Treasury yields far below historical levels – paying savers less on their money and hoping they won’t complain."
Notice that in each of the four scenarios above, gold goes up.
Oh what the hell. I am going to bed. I am not dreaming Pete Peterson or Bill Gross or (gasp) Michael Bloomberg. They are talking their book. But I am holding GLD, CEF and RBY and a good company CSCO. Also NLY and KMI. Trying to get back to basics. Have cash for tomorrow. Margin sucks.
ReplyDeleteHere is the latest article from Hussman:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110411.htm
I think it holds the answer to how one should invest/trade in the near future. The one conclusion I got from it is that now is the time to buy PST/TBT, since interest rates WILL be going up, most likely because Fed will MAKE them go up as a part of its exit strategy.
Since I am deeply in margin in my main trading account at OptionsHouse, I am placing a buy stop limit on only 300 shares of TBT at $39.25/$39.30, and will buy a lot of TBT calls tomorrow when I wake up.
Wow TBT chart looks great.
ReplyDeleteholy crap...silver is up BIG.
ReplyDeleteAGQ what an investment...jeez
ReplyDeleteJudging by the silver rally in Hong Kong, I probably won't be able to buy ECU or GDXJ at decent prices tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteAGQ -- this is the power of exponential compounding (2X ultra longs perform much better than 2X during a sustained run up).
ReplyDeleteMaybe the reason the market is not breaking down despite the looming end of QE2 is because it actually believes Meredith Whitney, who is forecasting huge cuts at the Federal and state level in mid-summer, which will once again make it seem as if the economy is cooling down, which will in turn prevent the Fed from starting its exit strategy (and as Hussman explained it clearly, the first increase in the Fed funds rate will require a HUGE reduction in Fed's balance sheet = sale of MBS and Treasury securities) and will possibly force the Fed to engage in QE3.
ReplyDeleteDavid - that or the economy and earnings are stronger than people think.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- it has been shown many times, and very convincingly, that stock prices are much more sensitive to interest rates than to economy/corporate earnings. A stronger economy is the last thing bulls should wish for, as it will lead directly to increasing interest rates and contracting Fed's balance sheet.
ReplyDeleteTOF, 2nd_ave: read this article about corporate earnings:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/profitmetrics.htm
The future might not be as rosy as you think...
David - I don't think Hussman has back tested his data enough on these earnings numbers. He cites things like earnings suprises yet uses only 4 examples for why he thinks when long range moving averages of earnings surprises turns down then the market drops, and of those 4 only 2 worked.
ReplyDeleteI hear what he is saying about profit margins, but what if unemployment stays at abnormally high levels for years? Isn't it possible that earnings continue to go higher because of lower fixed costs from higher structural unemployment and continuing sales growth from modest domestic sales growth + strong overseas growth? Many permabears believe we will have structurally high unemployment because they say those housing jobs aren't coming back. Well then wouldn't that also mean structurally high margins?
TOF, I think the main point of that article is that when y-o-y rate of change in sales (revenue) goes down, so do profit margins. Well, the former metric has recently turned down sharply, and so we should expect the latter metric to turn down as well.
ReplyDeleteIn case the surge in junior miners starts early while I am still asleep, I placed a buy stop limit order for 200 shares of GDXJ at $43/$43.25.
ReplyDeleteCopper is off slightly, Asia was as well. At least crude isn't climbing yet.
ReplyDeleteA Nine-Year Hyper Bull To SPX 5000 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5495 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 09:45 #83603
ReplyDeleteIf market movements are now characterized by time 'compression,' then a repeat of the 1982-2000 bull market might be replaced by a 2009-2018 'Hyper Bull.' I'll take it even if it's a hyped bull.
SPX 5000 or more would certainly be in play. Maximum frustration? Sidelined the entire first half. Repeatedly sacked in the third quarter for a loss. Come-from-behind win in the fourth.
DJIA + 50. Man, what's a little volatility on the way to DJIA 36,000?
ReplyDeleteSorry- DJIA 40,000.
ReplyDeleteRe: A Nine-Year Hyper Bull To SPX 5000 newSubmitted by Telestar3d (510 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 09:55 #83604 (in reply to #83603)
ReplyDeleteInteresting idea, but there is a very prevalent 17 year cycle that is identifiable in the market. 1982-2000 was the bull phase and 2000-2018 is the bummer phase (I know that's 18 years each) as we all know the market is non-specific so we deal in probabilities.
This country has some incredible headwinds that make a roaring bull seem iffy.
The great thing about the market is we are all allowed to bet as we see it, but I'll go with historic data.
Cheers 2nd
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
Re: A Nine-Year Hyper Bull To SPX 5000 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5496 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 09:56 #83605 (in reply to #83604)
t3d- I think the 2000-2018 'bummer phase' was compressed into 2000-2009 ;)
What's up with WPRT?
ReplyDeletereloading RBY
ReplyDeleteSold my POS...err GOOG at $574.
ReplyDeleteShort GS at $162.55 for a day trade.
ReplyDeleteBTW,HEK, was talked up by Cramer on FRI. Basically positive but a spec t3d
ReplyDeleteThe LNG/WPRT/CLNE trifecta is getting hit hard. Guess natty trucks are out today.
ReplyDeleteGOOG on its way to 600+, bro.
ReplyDeleteIt began with the iFad and ended with the natty-fad? The rare earth fad is in there somewhere, too.
ReplyDeleteWhen do we hit the electric car fad again? That's one I can imagine sticking if only the batteries are up to the task, and that's gonna require a breakthrough...
RBY - Published revised drill results, correcting an error in Friday's release.
ReplyDeleteThe change seems substantial. That must be pretty embarrassing, publishing erroneous data...
GL boyz...Faltsville here still.
ReplyDeleteI took a starter position in SORL this morning at $5.79. Cash is now down to 17%. One good thing about SORL's product mix is that it isn't dependent on the type of fuel to power the vehicle. Cars and trucks will always need brakes.
ReplyDeleteMark - who you falting? Is that some sort of flatulant?
ReplyDelete2nd - I believe GOOG is going there too..in fact I think it's going to $1,000 within a couple of years. However, with ZIP's IPO on Thursday, I'm keeping everything small and waiting.
"The change seems substantial."
ReplyDeleteThat is, the change appears to improve the mineral content over Friday's PR.
Yes, it was significant enough to cause me to reload on the takedown. I won't be surprised if some analyst said sell over the weekend, and now is looking at much higher numbers after telling everyone to sell.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine selling RBY, I can imagine adding. Their F2 deposit seems quite superb, maybe as good or better than GG's.
ReplyDelete"Copper may fall in New York for the first time in five days on concern China might raise interest rates further and a reduced forecast for U.S. growth from the International Monetary Fund."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-11/copper-erases-gain-as-chinese-imports-stoke-speculation-demand-may-weaken.html
I still think this market pulls in to the 1,300 level...typically over the past few quarters from what I remember S&P sells off on the 1st week or two of earnings reports even though the majority of those reports aren't as indicative of the economy as the rest of the reports. I think we usually have AA and the financials and then GOOG, all of which have been weaker companies in general over the past 2 years. So perhaps we get a buyable dip to the 1,300-1,310 level as a result of pessimism from those reports which aren't a great tell for the rest of the market.
ReplyDeleteNeither of my buy stop orders on GDXJ or TBT got triggered this morning. I lowered my buy stop order on GDXJ to $42/$42.05 and on TBT to $39.05/$39.10.
ReplyDeleteWell, I hate to say it, but the market prices are telling me that the market is breaking down. Maybe tomorrow they tell a different story, but I can't rely on that. So I just sold my 2000 shares of REDF at $7.36, finally taking my first loss on it (around 1K).
ReplyDeleteAlso, I am placing a sell stop limit on my DANG at $19.98/$19.95.
On a second thought, I decided to lower my sell stop on DANG to $19.55/$19.50, so as to exit it only if it breaks through the previous low at $19.75.
ReplyDeleteIMF cuts growth - Sounds like Timmy has more paper he needs to peddle... Can't be much more remaining before hitting the debt ceiling though?
ReplyDeleteMaître d': Ah, good afternoon, sir; and how are we today?
Mr. Creosote: Better.
Maître d': Better?
Mr. Creosote: Better get a bucket, I'm gonna throw up.
I also just sold my 400 shares of BTU at $67.50, which I bought at around $68.3.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I was 12 hrs. early on my SLW short. What a wuss.
ReplyDeleteMy watch list clearly is not balanced. Man it's fugly there.
GMO - Yeah, I missed yet another opportunity to sell in the high $5's... ;)
ReplyDeleteSome day I'll be looking to sell the high $7's.
Just bought 5000 more shares of ECUXF at $1.05.
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy limit order for 7100 shares of ECUXF at $1.02.
ReplyDeletePXP - That's the bottom of trendline, nobody buying here???
ReplyDeleteCP- I'm waiting until tomorrow. Take a look at the last 180 days of BEXP. 4 days sell offs with a lower open on the 5th day and then go. Same thing for PXP.
ReplyDeleteWhat I can't figure out is why is the VIX getting creamed?
I covered my GS short at $161.90 earlier and actually bought a few XLF $15 Calls at $1.5 that expire this Friday. XLF and its components look strong today.
ReplyDeleteI also bought a few SPY $130 calls expiring this Friday at $3 just to play a bounce off lows. Not really willing to put much at stake here.
Wow, that was quick! Someone just sold me 7100 shares of ECUXF at $1.02! So I feel much better about today's sell-off now -- at least I was able to pick up some ECUXF at a good price!
ReplyDeleteAlso decided to buy 2 x GOOG $585 calls expiring this Friday at $10.6. I'm thinking it should hopefully rally a bit into earnings so that I can sell it beforehand for a profit. Otherwise I will not hold through earnings unless they double into it.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I think it was BC in a drunken panic :)
ReplyDeleteMan, another leg down for energy at the floor close.
ReplyDeleteI am temporarily canceling my buy stop order on GDXJ at $41.75 and instead placing a buy limit order for 8500 shares of ECUXF at 1.02 -- it it is on such sale today, I want to have more!
ReplyDeleteThe lot sizes may seem strange to you, but I am basically finding all spare cash in all my trading accounts and putting it into ECUXF.
WTF, over???
ReplyDeleteSLV is getting creamed here...and, SLW of course. Fing WUSS!!
ReplyDeleteThe mean hedge fund traders are slow like turtles today! I had a sell stop on DANG at $19.95, then I moved it down, but they *still* spiked DANG to $19.95 20 minutes after I removed my stop! Either the electric signals are running slow through their computers or their brains are slow today to recognize the reality! Don't drink and trade! :)
ReplyDelete"SLV is getting creamed here...and, SLW of course."
ReplyDeleteWell, at least SLV/SLW are way above their December's peak, so I can understand if people are selling them. But selling ECUXF now is ridiculous, as it is WAY below it's December's peak. That's why I am buying ECUXF.
Man, the angle of decline in APA is almost 90˙
ReplyDeleteAll right! My buy limit order for 8500 shares of ECUXF got filled today at $1.02.
ReplyDeleteSo no GDXJ for me today -- don't have any money left. :)
ReplyDeleteBEXP respected the 50 about 1 month ago. Not in Jan. though. Dang, when I left this morning I wondered if we'd get a shot at the 50. I had no fing idea it would be today.
ReplyDeleteThis is one ugly market that doesn't go down.
ReplyDeleteWow, looks like I rushed it with ECUXF -- someone was able to buy it today at $0.99! But you know, looking out 1 year from now when it will be over $2, it won't really matter whether I bought it at $1.02 or $0.99...
ReplyDeleteAA - Okay, maybe market is trying to shake as many lose hands as possible prior to an enthusiastic announcement from AA.
ReplyDeleteWe all know what happens every time AA announces, don't we? We've been well trained.
Lot's of stuff on sale today?
ReplyDeleteThe sell-off in metals/miners today is the reason I don't trade that sector- I wouldn't be able to focus at work if I had positions.
ReplyDeleteI got stopped out of Bexp today just below 35, Stupidest trade of the year because I was following oIL price action not the price action of the stock. 30 lashes and a kick in the nuts. I should of doubled my stop order effectively going short when I got stopped out. Fudementals maybe catching up with oil.
ReplyDeleteseeing the ridiculous panic in PMs i decided to buy some puts in MCP that expire this friday...$70s at $2.15...again, very small positions.
ReplyDeleteEverything I look at has the ask stacked.
ReplyDeleteWhereas they can try taking down the DJIA all they want- I'm confident in my take and think it's bullshit. If they want to take the dogs down some more, the plan is to add.
ReplyDeleteMy morning post re DJIA 40,000, btw, is no joke. My takes occur pretty much out of the blue, and I'm just posting them as they come.
MON - Today Monsanto is advertising on the DC radio, is there an agricultural subsidy up for vote this week?
ReplyDeleteMON - That chart looks like it could be nearly exhausted???... Adding 2+2 there must be something up././.?
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling a sympathetic abdominal strain here...
ReplyDeleteI know VIX is down from the monthly rollover in options but it's crazy that the market has kind of tanked today yet the VIX is barely up from the morning.
ReplyDeleteRe: PM miners are leaving the dance floor
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5500 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 #83639 (in reply to #83638)
Sell-off like this one are the reason I don't trade the mining sector- I honestly wouldn't know if current prices are a buy or a sell.
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Re: PM miners are leaving the dance floor v blue chips newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5500 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:20 #83640 (in reply to #83639)
Whereas I'm fairly confident in my take on AA/CSCO/GE/INTC. I think we move higher + continue to see rotation into large-cap value stocks.
They're shaking out weak hands again. In fact, this is the third go-round in a week. I think it bodes well for the DJIA over the next two weeks.
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm thinking you're right. I'm mostly in cash but I take this action as bullish. there is only panic in the miners, which tells me that the market is thinking we actually begin getting more fiscally conservative through an improved economy + some budget tightening.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX is barely up over the morning lows despite the market dropping about 1% from morning lows. Plus, this is the 3rd day in a row that the market has opened higher yet sold off, a key sign of reversals yet the VIX is not higher and copper is actually up a decent amount since then. Plus the market really hasn't sold off much...it's only down marginally from Wednesday's close.
It's too early to tell if this means much longer term but I think it's bullish. If we close green it will be further confirmation to stay bullish.
well i managed to close my MCP puts at breakeven. not sure why i would bother betting bearish on something as bullish as that.
ReplyDeleteHow come I think David just bought another 10K shares of ECUXF @ 1.03?
ReplyDeleteLNG/CLNE/WPRT...Come on guys. Someone make a call here.
ReplyDeleteWow! ADES
ReplyDeleteDavid > REDF coming back to the $6.5 level...I think it could be a buy there.
Re: PM miners are leaving the dance floor v blue chips/ 3x
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by davefairtex (2832 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:34 #83645 (in reply to #83644)
2nd - "In fact, this is the third shakeout in a week. I think it bodes well for the DJIA over the next two weeks..."
You may be right. Then again, I might remind you that last Friday we were "cleared for takeoff" by the price action that day and today no takeoff occurred, in fact, just the opposite - at least so far. Is it possible that something has changed underneath the market?
Over the past few months, in the absence of any news, price action has been to drift up. Look at the chart from the start of QE2 through Feb 22. Its almost a ruler-straight line up. Then the quake hit in Japan, causing a correction. Following that once again, a nice line up - until 3 days ago. Now, the exact opposite of that has happened over the past few days - now we're drifting down, on no news. Seems like a change in behavior, possibly leading to a change in trend. Let's see how the market reacts to earnings releases.
Re: PM miners are leaving the dance floor v blue chips/ 3x
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5503 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:39 #83647 (in reply to #83645)
dave- I still think we're cleared for takeoff, and that nothing has changed. I can't pinpoint the exact day. Let's just say I think the SPX will be >1350 by Friday April 22. If I'm wrong, so be it.
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Re: PM miners are leaving the dance floor v blue chips/ 3x newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5503 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:42 #83648 (in reply to #83647)
To clarify what I mean by 'bodes well,' I think the more weak hands they shake out prior to earnings, the higher we go.
WPRT could have a 50% Fibro bounce at 23.50. I think it will be at $20 or below by the end of the month. The catalyst is gone.
ReplyDeleteGMO, outside day, t3d
ReplyDeletemsft, out
wprt look to add 22ish
From Jeffrey Saut...one "guru" I actually bother listening to:
ReplyDeleteOver the weekend things have indeed heated up in the Middle East with Gaza-based Hamas launching anti-tank missiles and hitting an Israeli school bus, a responding Israeli air strike, Egyptian talk of war if Israel attacks Palestinians in the Gaza, Egypt ready to resume diplomatic relations with Iran, more demonstrations in Egypt’s Tahrir Square, and talk that Israel might combine with Libya. Yet, crude oil is actually down, increasing our sense that rude crude is at/near an upside inflection point. If true, after another few consolidation sessions, it would surprise the most if the SPX rallied above its reaction high of 1344 for another leg up. We are positioning accounts accordingly. And don’t look now, but our fundamental energy analysts had some VERY positive comments on 5.4%-yielding EV Energy Partners (EVEP).
TBT has just turned green. I just bought 300 shares at $38.96.
ReplyDeleteWPRT if it gets to $20, it would be a great gift. There is a second gap at 19.36, be amazed if they fill it.
ReplyDeletestill have a small amount
On this note, I decided to buy some more SPY $130 Calls at $2.68 to bring my average down to $2.84. Expiration is this friday. Just playing the range bound game.
ReplyDeleteMark -- I haven't bought any ECUXF after $1.02. I used up all the cash I had in all my accounts for buying ECUXF. So now I am forgetting about this stock for a year and then booking long-term capital gains in 2012 (before they go up to 20% in 2013).
ReplyDeleteHow's this for brave? 200 AAPL @ 330.52.
ReplyDeleteMark I almost bought AAPL as well just now. I don't think it's that much of a risky bet...only risk in my mind is Jobs health. Otherwise, you have an easy stop out at $324, a loss of only 2%.
ReplyDeleteNKE - Still moving towards the MP target price...
ReplyDeleteAAPL - 4/16 MP is $335
ReplyDeleteTele 3d I like the company and the story. I owned it for most of 2010 hoping for a break of 20 that it could never do. Thats why I think 20 will be a magnet in addition to pressure from any decline in oil. CMI seems to be more loved by wallstreet.
ReplyDeleteSLW - 4/16 MP is $43
ReplyDeleteToday's sell-off in gold/silver could be due to the fact that Asians got tired of seeing gold/silver zoom up only in London and New York, and decided to buy some ahead of time. Well, the mean London and New York bankers decided to punish those who tried to jump in ahead of them.
ReplyDeleteMetals - Assuming the global economy is improving, demand for metals isn't likely to suffer. Hard assets seem like a logical place to park money as the dollar continues it's multi-decade correction to the downside.
ReplyDeletePM's - It's probably not too much of a stretch to believe some folks were bound and determined to take some gains off the table as prices hit new highs, gold still has a normalized value of ~$1700+
ReplyDelete2nd, I had that mind altering substance and my attitude is now adjusted. LOL
ReplyDeleteSP 500 at today's close growing at 9% per year. By the numbers:
Year SP 500 Today's Close SP 500 Year End
2011 1324.46 119.2014
2012 1443.6614 129.929526
2013 1573.590926 141.6231833
2014 1715.214109 154.3692698
2015 1869.583379 168.2625041
2016 2037.845883 183.4061295
2017 2221.252013 199.9126812
2018 2421.164694 217.9048225
2019 2639.069516 237.5162565
2020 2876.585773 258.8927196
2021 3135.478492 282.1930643
2022 3417.671557 307.5904401
2023 3725.261997 335.2735797
2024 4060.535577 365.4482019
2025 4425.983778 398.3385401
2026 4824.322319 434.1890087
2027 5258.511327 473.2660195
SP 500 at today's close growing at 20% per year. By the numbers:
Year SP 500 Today's Close SP 500 Year End
2011 1324.46 264.892
2012 1589.352 317.8704
2013 1907.2224 381.44448
2014 2288.66688 457.733376
2015 2746.400256 549.2800512
2016 3295.680307 659.1360614
2017 3954.816369 790.9632737
2018 4745.779642 949.1559285
2019 5694.935571 1138.987114
SP 500 at today's close growing at 9% per year, your target is reached at 2027.
SP 500 at today's close growing at 20% per year, your target is reached at 2019.
Do not bogart these returns. LOL
Robear, WPRT is indeed a good story, which LT should prove to be a good stock, but time will tell.
ReplyDeleteBought 500 more shares of DANG after hours at $19.95 (for a total of 2000 shares) and adding those shares into my sell stop limit order at 19.44/$19.40. This is my last desperate attempt to regain my honor with DANG, playing on the assumption that the April 4th low at $19.74, which was basically re-tested today, holds. If I get stopped out, then I quit trading and will simply wait for a year for my ECUXF to go up N times.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how traders of PM stocks freak out when silver/gold drop even a little below their previous day's close. They haven't seen THAT happening for a while. :)
ReplyDeleteTele,
ReplyDeletei think WPRT is just one good contract from being a $100 stock. i just don't get why a desperate auto builder doesn't take the plunge and make a natty gas line. Dodge trucks already with cummings diesel could easily maKe a fleet line of utility trucks running natty. Wouldn't at least every Gas company buy a fleet? Dang that's a good idea i am going to write a letter.
David. The ATR on Dang is $1.25. Your stop is only 50 cents. Your idea on the direction of Dang could be absolutely right, but you are in danger of getting stopped out in just the normal churn of the market or a morning fade.Only to see it explode. If you get a gap and go you will be golden.Good Luck
ReplyDeleteRe: A Nine-Year Hyper Bull To SPX 5000 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5504 comments) on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:18 #83667 (in reply to #83662)
ReplyDeletet3d- Way to go, man- that's more like it! I wouldn't call it a mind-altering substance, though. It simply enhances perception and is marketed to 'correct faulty vision.'
I'd buy ES @ 1314.
ReplyDeleteRoBear, I could have (and should have) placed the stop at $19.4 when DANG rose to $21 and I started scaling into it. The fact that DANG came back almost right to the key level where I would exit a swing trade position should not make me lower my stop. Saying it another way, I placed a stop at a key level derived from the chart rather than simply some distance below my entry point.
ReplyDeleteIf I get stopped out tomorrow (and judging by the futures it looks like I will get stopped out tomorrow), then so be it. I will then quit my trading for a year until the time comes to book long term profits on ECUXF.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Did you see the release today from Ineractive Brokers that put the margin requirement on all China RM stocks to 100%? CAAS/DANG/WATG are on the list.
ReplyDeleteSORL is not.
UNG - The inverse still in play, hun?
ReplyDeleteHere's an article that's floating around, can't speak to it's validity or correlation, maybe someday someone will eventually realize energy conservation is the best path, instead of beating up on all fossil fuels in favor of technologies that have no chance of meeting real-world requirements (electric cars may have a chance eventually, but for now I see them only as a potential solution for metropolis use):
"Study: Gas from ‘fracking’ worse than coal on climate
By Ben Geman - 04/10/11 02:40 PM ET
Cornell University professors will soon publish research that concludes natural gas produced with a drilling method called “hydraulic fracturing” contributes to global warming as much as coal, or even more.
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/155101-report-gas-from-fracking-worse-than-coal-on-climate
David, I see, I thought you bought it today. I do the same thing. I suggest keeping the STOP. A good example is my BEXP position today. I had a stop below the 20 day MA. I new for sure BEXP was going to take it out I even thought it would take out my stop and retrace back above. The old "20 day MA bounce" leaving me behind. luckily I kept the stop because BEXP closed $1.50 below my stop. hopefully I will be able to buy it back when Mark gives the all clear signal.
ReplyDeleteIn addition the evening futures have a poor record corresponding with the morning open. ALSO BIDU is very strong because of some deal with facebook. That could lift dang. Another interesting thing about stops. If you pull up a YTD chart of Bidu and see the lowest point of the year on a rat tail at the end of january. With in a few pennies of the end of that Rattail is my stop being hit. Today $44.00 higher. Why do I keep stops?
ReplyDeleteRoBear -- that sucks about your BIDU stop getting hit. One thing I read in a trading book is that professionals don't mind getting stopped out a few times before nailing the trade they want. So I am trying to learn to put my emotions on hold and be able to get back into a stock if my stop gets hit but then the stock rises up above it. In fact, I suspect that these are the BEST long positions -- those where the stock takes out a bunch of stops placed at some obvious level (and I always place stops at some obvious level) and then reverses up above that level. So even if I get stopped out on DANG, I will try to re-enter it if it rises above my stop level.
ReplyDeleteMy OptionsHouse platform is silly enough to not be able to modify orders when the market is closed -- I have to cancel them and put in new orders. Sometimes, as it happened now with DANG, the order doesn't get cancelled completely, and so I cannot put in a new order. So all I could do now was to place a sell stop limit at $19.44/$19.40 for the extra 500 shares I picked up today. Let's see how this works out tomorrow...
GMO - Outside day? No, I don't think so, it was nearly normal although the range was a bit wider than usual.
ReplyDeleteI just wonder if maybe DANG isn't kinda DANGerous?? Like many other Chinese equities, so many have been moved to the pink sheets b/c they couldn't meet the listing requirements.
ReplyDeleteDANG Ia a new IPO. I think they will wait at least a few months before relegation to the pinks.
ReplyDeleteI decided to place a sell limit order at $0.4 for 10 May $5 puts on GMO. If tomorrow we get another sell-off, then such an order may actually get triggered!
ReplyDeleteAA - I recall two quarters back, Klaus said in an interview that AA was poised to take advantage of a rising dollar, I guess that didn't happen for them...
ReplyDelete