Ducking For Cover/ Stay The Course newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5505 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 09:03 #83690
dave- I concede that the response to AA earnings has me second-guessing my take. At this point, I'm weighing whether to sidestep a possible squall, or keep driving.
TOF- What happened to ADES?
ReplyDeleteCan't jump in any energy longs here. Everything is already below S2.
ReplyDeleteGS - "Oil will experience a substantial price setback."
ReplyDeleteMark > ADES lost a very important legal battle...settlement is gonna cost them an arm and a leg.
ReplyDeleteI'm playing this dip...bought 7 x SPY $124 Calls expiring in May at $8.5. I know the end of the world is coming, but not before the market bounces off it's 50 DMA at 1314 right here.
I also bought 1 x flyer call on GOOG...bought 1 x $615 call expiring this Friday at $1.9 just in case their earnings crush and the stock gaps to $640.
AA - I recall two quarters back, Klaus said in an interview that AA was poised to take advantage of a stronger U$D.
ReplyDeleteI guess it didn't work out that way for them.
Energy getting killed, good job or Apple, one of the few greens t3d
ReplyDeleteBull market continues as market realizes oil was priced too high....
ReplyDeleteIn lockstep with every single other fear being overblown over the past 2 years, the threat of spiking oil is way overblown...as it recedes back down to sub $100 the market gains its footing and begins its next leg up to significantly higher prices.
Re: Ducking For Cover/ Stay The Course
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5506 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 10:08 #83702 (in reply to #83691)
dave- If we are in fact pulling back (significantly) here, I'm guessing we zig up later this afternoon, then zag down again tomorrow.
My own sentiment appears to have jumped off the wall of worry. Not yet replaced by hope- but as soon as I begin 'hoping' for a recovery in prices, I will not hesitate to cash out.
going to sit tight with my longs, looks like mr market is going to re-balance my port for me.
ReplyDeleteSuper Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/super-boom-why-the-dow-jones-will-hit-38820-and-how-you-can-profit-from-it/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
At this rate, we might get some energy plays that are worth 'investing' in rather soon.
ReplyDeletemama told me not to play
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaQzQAlNn4
bought AA @ 16.81, just for a trade...my 7:15 con call got moved to 7:30,,,,idle hands and all.
ReplyDeleteRe: Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How ... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5507 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 10:26 #83705 (in reply to #83703)
ReplyDeletet3d- I knew it was good stuff, but I don't think you passed it on to NYU.
Anyone buying this little pull back in FTWR?
ReplyDeletehey Mark - I'm not, somehow that one fell off my list. you still holding that one?
ReplyDeleteAnyone like BHI?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/ccc6f03d-668e-44a7-ba1b-e08863c57ad9
JB- No. Been over a year I think. Listened to the CC. I'm guessing they go BK, and their largest bond holder, CCI, snatches up their assets.
ReplyDeletethx Mark, it's rough out there.
ReplyDeleteT3D- I do. My top 5 right now are BEXP/CLR/BHI/PXP/NBR.
ReplyDeleteI just think we can get better prices. Probably means we wont ;)
FTWR - It's got a long way to go from here...
ReplyDeleteFuken Dang
ReplyDeletejust covered SDS, prob early
ReplyDeleteInteresting that transports are positive. IYT. This strikes me as a pullback and nothing more. If I wasn't waiting for the ZIP IPO on Thursday I would probably be getting very long here...but I want to keep my mind open and losses minimized.
ReplyDeletesomebody wants SIFY to go above $5 mark.....
ReplyDeleteDoubled down on my SPY $124 Calls expiring in May...now long 16 calls at $8.35 avg.
ReplyDeleteOil is broken short term = bull market continues. That's my thinking at least.
ReplyDeleteAnon - i've been watching SIFY for a while...very bullish.
ReplyDeleteGL shooters... Sticking to my cash and AAPL's.
ReplyDeleteAA - 4/16 MP is $18, 5/21 is $17
ReplyDelete"Oil is broken short term = bull market continues. That's my thinking at least."
ReplyDeleteI guess it depends on why oil is down and how low it actually moves, lower oil certainly helps relieve economic hurdles.
I can't help but think that GOOG is going to be at $700 very soon.
ReplyDeleteCopper - Two sessions of gains are now gone in two sessions.
ReplyDeleteInterview w/ new SLW CEO coming up on cnbc...
ReplyDeleteSilver still retains it's $40 handle, wonder if oil can move sub $100?
ReplyDeleteSLW - Kinda looks like a buy here pretty soon, doesn't it? I've been quietly expecting gold will someday catch up with silver/copper/oil...
ReplyDeleteLooks like I am getting a second chance with DANG -- as I posted last night, the only way for me to increase my sell stop order on DANG to 2K shares (so as to account for the extra 500 shares I bought after hours) was to cancel my previous sell stop order for 1500 shares and then place a new one for 2K shares. Occasionally, the cancelled old order doesn't leave the system, and this happened last night, which didn't allow me to place a new sell stop. So I only placed a sell stop for 500 shares, which did get triggered. But I still kept 1500 shares (and placed a sell stop for them back at $19.44/$19.4), so I'll have to wait until later on today for that order to get hit.
ReplyDeleteAll together, however, I exited the wrong stock yesterday out of the REDF, DANG pair -- should have kept REDF instead...
Finally, seeing the sell-off in GDXJ, I decided to make a lateral move from CSCO (which I suspect won't grow much over the next year) into GDXJ (which will almost certainly grow faster than CSCO over the next year). So I just sold 900 shares of CSCO at $17.40 and bought 500 shares of GDXJ at $39.60.
ReplyDeleteAdded a couple more SPY $124 Calls at $8.25.
ReplyDeleteDavis said, "All together, however, I exited the wrong stock yesterday out of the REDF, DANG pair -- should have kept REDF instead."
ReplyDeleteThat happens to me all the time, if you find a solution, please share.
TOF, I think the solution is to exit the stock with the slowest long-term uptrend (obviously DANG) and keep the one with the strongest long-term uptrend (REDF). The long-term trend tends to stay in place, and after any sell-off the stocks with the strongest long-term uptrend rebound the hardest.
ReplyDeleteGuys - Keep DXPE on your watchlist. This is a company I have lightly followed for 5 years now. I think it it setting up for a really good buy in the $22-$23 level.
ReplyDeleteWOW XLF about to go green
ReplyDeleteRAS - What about this one, it seems to be sitting on major support here...
ReplyDeleteChicken - walk away from RAS...nothing to see there but massive dilution.
ReplyDeleteMON - Nice pop there.
ReplyDeletePAL - 4/16 MP is $7, 5/21 MP is $6
HIT - Looks like a low risk entry (assuming Japan is low risk?).
ReplyDeleteTM - Another Japanese potential entry?
ReplyDeleteOK, let's see how well the advice of re-entering stocks after a stop was hit and the stock reverses. Just bought 1000 shares of REDF at $7.85.
ReplyDelete"The Mystery of the Stock Price and the Strike Price"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/business/yourmoney/07stra.html?_r=1
Green close? XLF and VIX sure suggest something like it.
ReplyDeleteI see DANG started to frantically oscillate up and down after dropping down a lot. This may signal a bottom, at least intraday. So I just bought 500 more shares of DANG at $19.70.
ReplyDelete* EIA sees 2011 gas output up 1.49 bcfd from 2010
ReplyDelete* Forecasts 0.8 pct gain in 2012 production
* Henry Hub 2011 cash price expected down 7 pct at $4.10
(Adds consumption data, background, price estimates)
NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information
sharply raised its estimate for domestic natural gas production
in 2011 on Tuesday, expecting total output this year to be up
2.4 percent from 2010 levels.
In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA said it
expected marketed natural gas production to be up by 1.49
billion cubic feet per day in 2011 to 63.32 bcf. That was up
sharply from its March output outlook of 62.29 bcf daily.
While year-over-year 2011 production growth should slow
considerably from 2010's 4.5 percent increase, total domestic
output this year would easily set an all-time high, eclipsing
the previous record high of 62.05 bcf daily hit in 1973.
Read a little on the ADES ruling. OK, it sucks for ADES, but the sell off seems overdone. 2 reiterations today. PT's $22/21.
ReplyDeleteThoughts?
WPRT had a nice turnaround in the face of higher oil. Acting strong!
ReplyDeleteClosing positions in AA/CSCO/GE/INTC (The Anti-Feel Good Trade) newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5510 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 15:15 #83737
ReplyDeleteThis means prices of 16.67/17.40/19.98/19.74. Entry prices were in the 18.0x/17.9x/20.32/19.8x range.
Why? Because I'm hoping that prices will either (a) ramp up into the close, or (b) gap up Wednesday morning. Either would give me 'feel good' exits, and either may well happen. But personal history favors selling positions immediately.
WPRT- Man, that's one wild E Ticket ride.
ReplyDeleteScrew this DANG stock. It just can't get itself up. Any rally gets sold. I'll give it one last chance tomorrow, and if it doesn't gap up and zoom, then I'll just exit it. For now, I am lowering my sell stop order to $19.25/$19.20, just below today's low.
ReplyDeleteIf oil declines more overnight, maybe the market will indeed gap up tomorrow, as TOF had suggested?
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my SPY Calls at break even.
ReplyDeleteactually looks like i lost about $100 on that trade. Oh well..
ReplyDeleteman GOOG is awful right now. I feel like this is setting up for an upside move on earnings
ReplyDeleteRe: Volume/ SPX 5000
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5512 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 15:29 #83740 (in reply to #83729)
t3d- Well, in fact the 'super rally' thesis remains intact in my mind. However:
(a) Capital preservation is paramount. I can't gamble my family's financial security on any particular take, short- or long-term. I have no problem pressing my trades when they're going my way. If they're not, I have no (decent) choices beyond admitting I'm wrong and taking losses immediately.
(b) The SPX won't move up in a straight line and I can't help trying to game each twist and turn. (In fact, one scenario I mentioned was an entire 'third quarter' of losses- one possible way to frustrate investors, and certainly not one I would choose to hold through.)
(c) Simultaneously having a bullish LT outlook while sidestepping pullbacks is not a contradiction- it's a goal.
(d) Unfortunately, all of this leaves me with one remaining task, which is...
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Closing OAKBX End-of-Day newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5512 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 15:32 #83741
This is the transaction that hurts the most. Given the option, I would have closed first thing this morning. Unfortunately, rules re opening/closing positions are designed to benefit fund managers, not fund investors.
Re: Closing OAKBX End-of-Day newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5513 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 15:38 #83742 (in reply to #83741)
ReplyDeleteIt hurts the most b/c I closed positions in FGMNX in order to open positions in OAKBX (last Friday). A reversal in strategy at exactly the wrong time.
TOF- No interest in a flier here for ADES? Obviously I am. Help a brother out for a change :)
ReplyDeletePXP got an upgrade today from $42-$45. Raymond James.
ReplyDeleteRaymond James raises BEXP 40-45, CLR 90-98.
ReplyDeleteBidding ADES @ 11.04.
ReplyDeletehey mark > yeah i have no idea about that ADES....i need to read up on it. this was one of the reasons I originally didn't want to get into the stock in the first place: the litigation risk was like a go/no-go FDA review. having said that it's down a crap load huh? i'll check it out when i get a chance.
ReplyDeletei managed to hop back into my 16 x SPY 124 Calls at $8.3 on the fakeout shakeout. who knows if it holds.
i think this move down in GOOG is a great buying opp. As such, I decided to go long the stock here at $570 in the hopes I can sell it tomorrow at $580ish. I also bought a few $585 calls expiring Friday with the hope of selling them at a profit tomorrow before earnings on Thursday. I bought them at $7.5
ReplyDeleteADES...Great, 259 shares filled.
ReplyDeleteI'll take a $360 gain today as a victory.
ReplyDeleteSeeing if I can fill out my ADES AH's.
ReplyDeleteMark > you're a big roller what with your 259 shs!
ReplyDeleteI'm more and more convinced that this is just a pullback intended for buying. Wouldn't the VIX be shooting up if it is the start of something bigger? We're actually below the VIX levels seen a week ago when we were right at the highs of this bull market.
I might as well be dead
ReplyDeleteWhat I've learned today (and hopefully I'll remember that lesson) is that I should ONLY enter long trades with stops for stocks that have a strong long-term uptrend and ONLY after a pullback in the stock that stops above the preivous low. Alexander Elder in his classic trading book "Come into my trading room" mentioned that buying a stock that is far away from its trendline is the same as following a "greater fool" theory, where one hopes that there will be an even greater fool than him/her to keep driving that stock higher. He also mentioned that professionals WAIT for a good trade to jump out at them from the screen, meaning that they have certain strict criteria for when a new trade should be initiated and enter the trade only when all of those conditions are met. I rushed all the recent trades I entered and got punished on all of them.
ReplyDeletecheapy, I am in the same situation as you are: I put all my spare money into ECU and now all I can do is wait for it to reach new highs. I think you should just avoid looking at RBY for the next year and then book a long-term capital gain on it when it rises above $7 in 2012. You do know that gold will keep going for years to come, right? Thus the value of RBY's resources in the ground will keep going up and the revenue that they will ultimately start receiving when they complete their mine will also keep going up over the years. So RBY has nowhere to move but up in the long term. In the short term, it is all noise, and so just don't look at it.
ReplyDeletecheapy- Your moods rise/fall with the fortunes of ONE STOCK. WTF! You're allowing the crowd that trades RBY determine the outcome of each day of your life- that's placing too much power in the hands of the crowd.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteThe Great Wall of Worry new
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by teamonfuego (2390 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:10 #83751
The great wall of worry continues despite a 2 year bull market. This will keep this market going much higher much longer than most people think. The latest fears are rising oil prices killing margins. I suspect this will be yet another unfounded fear.