Tuesday, April 12, 2011
4/12/11 The Price Of Hubris/ Wait For Backup
Turn around, go back down, back the way you came
Babylon is laid to waste, Egypt's buried in her shame
Their mighty men are beaten down, their kings have fallen in the ways
Oh God, the pride of man, broken in the dust again
-2.4% over the past two days. Which takes the portfolio back to +4.53% YTD, basically late March levels.
If the indexes in fact break out at some point in the next 10 days, then my 'take' on 1350 may take off without me. I can't say I haven't been reminded recently about waiting for confirmation- nothing wrong with trusting instincts, but moving in without 'backup' can put you in a bad situation.
On a more positive note- once in a bad situation, closing positions at the first sign of trouble can save your ---. Losing two weeks of gains is manageable. Inaction (worse, adding to losing positions) can easily lead to serious trauma.
Hope the rest of you are having a better week.
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CADC - Down another 9.8%, now just $0.10 from 52 week low. I can only guess that more Chinese stocks were blowing up again today...
ReplyDeleteHulbert: CAPE Fear newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5515 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:45 #83753
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3awx54s
Here’s a sobering thought as earnings season begins in earnest:
There have been only four other occasions over the last century when equity valuations were as high as they are now, according to a variant of the price-earnings ratio that has a wide following in academic circles. Stocks on each of those four occasions would soon suffer big declines.
This modified P/E was made famous in the late 1990s by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, particularly in his book “Irrational Exuberance.” In this modified P/E, the denominator is not current earnings per share but average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing 10 years. This modified ratio — sometimes called P/E10, or CAPE (for Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) — has a markedly better forecasting record than the simple P/E.
Anyone know much about CAPE?
Just another -9.8%?
ReplyDeletetof- There is no question we're still headed higher. I just need to drop the 'coulda' baggage and trade the breakout when it occurs. Even if it's tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, not much I can do about it should it happen overnight.
ReplyDeleteRe: The Great Wall of Worry newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5516 comments) on Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:08 #83754 (in reply to #83751)
ReplyDeletetof- There is no question we're still headed higher. I just need to drop the 'coulda' baggage and trade the breakout when it occurs. Even if it's tomorrow.
Unfortunately, not much I can about it should it happen overnight.
Which brings up a good point- I give the market kudos for the way I was played Friday, Monday and Tuesday. Exactly one step ahead of my every move.
edit reply Bookmark this
2nd - did you bail?
ReplyDeleteby the way, BTU looks like a no-brainer buy at this point for a several days/weeks trade. The last time offered me only enough conviction to make a one day trade. This time, we're looking at another pullback to the 100 DMA which has acted as support, and with the RSI7 now at 17.
Now for the dark side. What the little guy refers to as 'payback.' I'm going to start stalking the crowd for my next move.
ReplyDeletetof- I'm 100% cash, bro.
ReplyDeleteMy next killing.
ReplyDeleteBTU - 4/16 MP is $65, 5/21 MP is $70
ReplyDeleteI agree, that chart, along with MP and RSI all are screaming buy.
Seems like it's worth considering...
A strong case could be made that we are in a 6% channel now from the start of the year. 1260 to 1340. I am officially calling this a neutral market until either level is breached.It will be interesting if the converging 20 and 50 day on the s+p hold this week.
ReplyDeleteWe probably need to at least test 1300.
ReplyDeleteHere's a great introspective question (along the lines of one David posed earlier): WTF do we insist on trading every freaking day? Why not wait for the fat pitch?
ReplyDelete"Why not wait for the fat pitch?"
ReplyDeleteI don't trade enough. As many times as GMO has moved from upper 5's then back to lower 5's, I coulda made a bundle.
You're the exception, CP.
ReplyDeleteI've been trading way too much. Not to mention over-analyzing every move in the markets. In fact, I'm on the edge of market burnout. I should take a FORCED trading holiday.
ReplyDeleteI like CADC here. It was downgraded today from Buy to Hold:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11078913/1/china-advanced-construction-materials-group-stock-downgraded-cadc.html
With one of the reasons being that their Net Income is down 59% y-o-y. However, after reading their 2Q statement now, I found that it was due only to the change in the fair value of warrants during 2H 2010 relative to the change in their fair value during 2H 2009. The CADC stock price was down significantly going into 2H 2009, and so they naturally recorded a large loss on their warrants. However, going into 2H 2010, the stock was up, and they naturally recorded a medium gain. All together, the difference is quite large = 4.8M relative to 4.9M of their net income prior to accounting for this warrant effect. Without this effect, this is a true picture of what happened:
"Net Income available to Common shareholders. Excluding the effect from non-cash charges related to changes in fair market of warrants, and stock and option-based compensation, our net income available to Common shareholders would be $4.9 million for the three months ended December 31, 2010, an increase of $0.6 million or 14.5%, as compared to net income after cash dividends paid of $4.3 million for the same period in 2009."
As quoted from http://markets.financialcontent.com/ir/?Module=MediaViewer&GUID=17139220&Ticker=CADC
So during the next earnings announcement they will see that their stock price is down, they will adjust down their warrant liability, will consequently report a high EPS and the stock will zoom. NOW is the time to buy CADC. I am placing a buy stop limit order on it at $3.10/$3.15 for 2000 shares, on margin, since I don't have any more cash to spare.
Sideways is my impression as well, until more economic data becomes available. I'm trying not to forget about sell in May and go away...
ReplyDeleteCADC - Volume spike today as if under accumulation, I see RSI(7) has moved back over 30 from below as well.
ReplyDeleteIs CAPT Morgan and coke zero a health food?
ReplyDeleteIt's my opinion that coke zero is where you get into a gray area in terms of a health food.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen my steer, I've looked all over and can't find him?
ReplyDeletehttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-skaNrHNq8vs/TaJ69ybnDRI/AAAAAAAADMc/1fKJPoAICmg/s1600/Ackerman%2BCow%2B660W.jpg
RB- Of course. Surprised you had to ask. Are you feeling OK?
ReplyDeleteTrading - I try to concentrate on the intermediate or longer terms. Too often there is the inclination to sell for a very quick but small profit. Too often I hold losers until they rise from the trench and then sell prematurely. My winners at this point are GLD and RBY. I am back to 22% cash today and profit for the year to date is only 2%. True Confessions.
ReplyDeleteCAPT Morgan and coke zero is definitely not a health food unless you nix the coke.
ReplyDeleteF! On the top of my watch list is RVBD!! Why the hell did the report early?
ReplyDeleteWhat's next, FTWR reporting early!!
ReplyDeleteIllini- Here's a pretty col pic from yesterdays game.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/yjGReA6JdP6y
Just to keep the record straight, no joy on the ADES AH's fill. I guess I'll have to roll with 256 shares. PLAYER!
ReplyDeleteSO, it APPL's, Cash and ADES...Isn't that a country band?
ReplyDeleteOK, OK, no more CAPT tonight.
2nd - I agree about waiting for the fat pitch. Even though I tend to day trade way too much, I have definitely been better this year at waiting for the fat pitch to go all in and stay long for longer than a day trade and I've done much better because of this. It took me a while to realize that you can make way more money buying panic than trying to short a potential top...it's not even close.
ReplyDeleteIf you think about it, over the course of any given year, if you learn to have the patience to wait for a panic selloff, the odds of you getting at least one opportunity to make 10-20% on a month or so trade is very high. Just by watching the market and not being invested as it goes higher and higher you can understand pretty quickly which stocks are the leading stocks. Buying the leading stocks in a panic selloff will get you this kind of return. When is it time to buy? Generally speaking if the VIX spikes up it's a good indication that there is panic in the market. A spike is usually 30% up in one day. If you follow the market moves close enough generally speaking you can get a decent indication of whether or not the fear is hitting a peak. And there is pretty much always a bounce...the only exceptions from what I've seen are when the market is under the 200 DMA. When this is the case, the market is usually much weaker and it generally pays to just wait for the bottom, a spike up, and then a retest of the bottom. In looking at prior markets 1929, 1987, 2001, and 2008 come to mind as times when you can't buy the panic dip.
It looks like I'll have to wake up to see the market open tomorrow, since the cost of sleeping through the open might be too high for me. That is, I think there is a good chance that DANG opens down, takes out my stop, but then immediately reverses to the upside. So I want to be there to get right back into DANG if it goes green after opening in the red.
ReplyDeleteNo luck for me with placing a buy stop on CADC -- its ask is $3.50, and so I cannot place a buy stop below $3.50. But hopefully I'll be able to get it at a good price tomorrow at the open.
ReplyDeleteYou could do a limit order below the ask right. Buy stop above bid. limit below. What would be the difference? You are limiting the price you are willing to pay.
ReplyDeleteAh, I have an idea! I just placed a buy limit order for 3000 shares of CADC at $3.05. This type of order fits perfectly with my plan: buy CADC cheap and then forget about it for a few months.
ReplyDeleteRoBear -- I just read your post, after I made mine. Great minds think alike. :)
ReplyDeleteFaded newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5517 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 08:59 #83778
ReplyDeleteI thought I was fading the crowd? The market faded my every move the past few days, up to and including cashing out yesterday.
Faded and jaded. Taking a few days off to recharge.
Looks like I scared the shit of out DANG by waking up early. :) I am sure if I hadn't woken up, my stop would have been hit and then DANG would have zoomed up without me. :) I am moving my stop on DANG up a little, to 19.44/19.4.
ReplyDeleteI am also placing a sell stop order on my 1K shares of REDF at $7.60 (I picked them up yesterday at $7.85).
ReplyDeleteDamn! Looks like I screwed up on DANG! I saw it heading down and made the right decision to sell it and then place a buy stop at $20, in case it reverses up. But I placed my sell limit above the bid and then spooked the whole stock, immediately sending it down!
ReplyDeleteI may just hire the Captain to run my portfolio for a few days...
ReplyDeleteDANG - Sounds like you're trading against a computer again...
ReplyDeleteMoving up my stop on REDF to $8, just below the open.
ReplyDeleteDamn. CREE was one of the winners yesterday. Today? Another new low.
ReplyDeleteDavid- You're smarter than the freaking computer, man.
ReplyDeleteREDF looks pretty good here. The SIFY stock continues its upward march.
ReplyDeleteCP -- you are probably right. I immediately removed my sell limit at $19.90, the stock stopped going down, stabilized for some time, and then started going up. All right, I am placing back my sell stop at $19.25/$19.20 -- hopefully that's far enough out of computer's reach and going back to sleep.
ReplyDeleteAs for CADC, the buying power in my main OptionsHouse account is showing as negative now, and so I cannot even update my order to move up my buy limit. So I just canceled that order all together, so as to have a positive buyign power. Oh well.
Sold my SPY $124 Calls at $8.62 from yesterday that I bought at $8.25. Still holding my GOOG and GOOG calls. I'm hoping for a downdraft in the market all day long so the market is negative going into the ZIP IPO tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJust got stopped out of REDF at $8. Made a wooping $150 on that trade. :)
ReplyDeleteNah... I want to give some of it back! Just re-entered REDF at $8 and placed a sell stop at $7.9. I am getting the feeling that after several days of spiking up and then going down, then market is *faking* a similar outcome now, but will actually reverse up soon.
ReplyDeleteCSCO Re-skid-ivism newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5518 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 10:05 #83781
ReplyDeleteOff the wagon again.
But then, maybe not... The little blip I saw in S&P didn't materialize into a reversal...
ReplyDeleteAll right, moving up my stop on DANG to $19.48/$19.4.
I am glad that I exchanged yesterday CSCO for a somewhat larger position in GDXJ...
ReplyDeleteDANG just hit my stop and my shares were sold at $19.44. That stock is just broken. I am not DANGing around anymore. I would rather focus on the long-term potential of GDXJ, ECUXF, etc.
ReplyDeletePlacing a sell stop order on my 300 shares of TBT at $38.15.
ReplyDeleteRe: Faded/ 'Where Have All The Bears Gone' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5519 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 10:14 #83782 (in reply to #83778)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/where-have-all-th...
This goes a long way towards explaining the recent turnaround in sentiment:
Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of the shortest-term stock market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). When I last devoted a column to stock market sentiment, in late March, this average stood at 15.8%. ( Read my Mar. 22 column. )
By earlier this week, in contrast, the HSNSI had risen to 58.8%, or 43 percentage points higher. That represents a rapid increase in bullish sentiment in a very short time.
This increase has been even more evident among market timers who focus on just the Nasdaq market — an arena that is particularly sensitive to changes in the way the wind blows. The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI, stood at minus 41.7% on the date of my late March column about stock market sentiment.
By earlier this week, the HNNSI had risen to plus 46.7%, representing a nearly 90-percentage-point increase in just a couple weeks’ time.
What do you know! DANG just bounced back up. So It looks like the computer WAS smarter than me after all...
ReplyDeleteCADC - I might think about taking a shot if it can break well under $3 and put in a new low. They took it down this far, why wouldn't the computer take it to a new low just to punish and shake out absolutely everyone? It's not good enough to just shake out 90% of the sheeple, they've gotta take the sucker through the full plunge as if China had spun off the edge of the planet.
ReplyDeleteIn one of those funky moods. Usually when I'm like this I force a trade just to be back in the game.
ReplyDeletewe survive the a.m. weakness, and we may be turning now, then we should go higher, unless the beige book or the prez submarines us
ReplyDeleteI coulda' sworn financials were green earlier...
ReplyDeleteAMSC - Now there's a trade worthy of forcing!
ReplyDeleteMark- Go ahead, force a trade. It'll calm you down on the drive to work.
ReplyDeleteAONE - Ditto for this one, there's a whole lotta table pounding locked up in this one...
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Another barn burner, the reverse split still isn't priced in?
ReplyDeletelooking for 1321 on the ES, can't break back under 15 tho
ReplyDeleteKuwait - Short the sandstorm of rising oil?
ReplyDeletei like SPLS here.
ReplyDeleteGL ladies. Don't get your panties in a bunch while I'm gone.
ReplyDeleteBTU - I like this one the best, coal is gonna get a bump when the Cornell study dissing natty is released?
ReplyDeleteMoved my stop up 1314.50
ReplyDeleteWPRT - Up elevator...
ReplyDeleteSPLS - Looks like a successful retest of the 20SMA
ReplyDeleteUAL - Coming back to life?
ReplyDeletecrap, stopped out
ReplyDelete4/16 Options Expiration - When do folks throw in the towel on their options, today?
ReplyDeleteActually I take back my comment on SPLS...I don't like it here. A majority of brick and mortar retailers that are not selling clothes are getting killed.
ReplyDeleteRe: All In and feelin' good ... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5520 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 11:33 #83788 (in reply to #83786)
ReplyDeletet3d and I haven't started mainlining yet- we're going to wait for them to water down the bullish sentiment before going all in.
Not only did I decide to not buy SPLS I decided to buy a few puts expiring this Friday just for a trade...I bought 15 x $21 puts at $1.1
ReplyDeleteI also bought 20 x JPM $47 Puts expiring this Friday again just for a trade...at $.83. Not really looking to take on much risk right now.
ReplyDeleteI closed my GOOG $585 calls at $9.4 that I bought from yesterday at $7.6
Re: CSCO Re-skid-ivism newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5521 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 11:49 #83789 (in reply to #83781)
ReplyDeleteThe wife's walking out this time.
NKE - Off @ $78.68, for groceries, utility bill and a tank of gas. Wait for a pullback, 5/21 MP is $75.
ReplyDeleteS&P - Judging by the RSI action, I see us moving to the bottom of range to test support and shake out lose hands before moving possibly to take out the double top.
ReplyDeleteNKE - Go figure, of course the computer made sure not to pay one penny more than my limit ask, even though my ask was below the current bid by a reasonable amount.
SORL took a bungee jump and I cut it loose on the way up @ $5.49. Thats over a 5% loss in two days. Small position. Wild stock.
ReplyDeletethat JPM put trade was a bad trade...i just closed for a small loss at $.77
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Telestar3d (515 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 12:16 #83794 (in reply to #83788)
ReplyDeleteAll in! Your comment reminded me of the days when I managed money with my mentor who was a all in guy, period. This was back in the late 80's early 90's where we market timed mutual funds, ah the days. Well we were long, all in, on a gold fund to the tune of about 12 mil, we were a small boutique firm.
These were the days just before the Iraq War. The market opens and gold is getting killed down about -7%. We also had a 2% rule where any position down 2% was closed and of course this is a judgement due to the 4 PM NAV. Anyway we are really getting killed, our worst day ever.
This was when Jim Baker went to the Middle East to try to avert war comes on TV and the first word out of his mouth is "regrettably." The whole market switches in about 60 seconds and gold moves to about -2% or so. Well we had already placed our order to sell out the position and could not believe the turn of events.
Now get this, about an hour before the market closes I get a call from the fund that that they see that the gold market has recovered and ask if we would like cancel our order to sell all shares. I thank him and we declined and ended up with our worst loss ever that day. The only good part was that we had made about 3 mil the week before making it a little palatable.
After the market closed, I went to the tennis courts and hit the "sheet" out of the ball to release the stress of the day. Ah, those were the days. Funny how seeing "All In and feelin' good" evoked these memories.
Needless to say I'm not a fan of all in. I'll save that for the poker table.
NLY making a nice move up today but it's just getting off the floor where it spent the night.
ReplyDeleteCoal is tempting me, but I need to go shopping and can't watch. Hey, I think there's enough in the budget to pay the Captain's wages.... ;)
ReplyDeleteSORL/WATG/CAAS/CADC/China - I would want to see a tradable bottom form on these before trying to guess when a one-day miracle short-covering suddenly appears. This sector has a nasty reputation of taking your money without even so much as a smooch or a hug, more like a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Rarely ever moves under $17, always has been a buy in low 17's a week or so following ex-div or if shares are offered (growth, not dilution) around $18. I wouldn't be too afraid to take a gain that equals or bests the divvy, then wait for a pullback, it appears to me that's how it's being played by those who have the time to trade.
ReplyDeleteS&P - Does anyone see an inverse H&S pattern there?
ReplyDeleteHmm, if it is, then it seems like ~1300 is the target before lift off...
ReplyDeletejust when i post that the JPM trade was a bad one and sell out of it, it turns in my favor. I feel like David with DANG.
ReplyDeleteStill just sitting here and waiting for prices to come to me. Starting to have my doubts about being long anything.
Short GE stock at $19.92. Large position.
ReplyDeleteI think this market is looking very shaky here. With the IMF warning about our country's debt and Obama talking about how we're going to cut budget spending I would have to think that traders come to the conclusion that further stimulus is out...hopefully this turns into lower price oil because the inflation fears will abate, but I doubt it. So I think traders will eventually start building in the fact that with austerity earnings will not rise as much as expected and therefore the upside to the market is going to be subdued. Who knows though, but I think this is part of the reason the market is wobbly.
ReplyDeleteGold - Looks to be drifting, can $1450 hold? I say yes we can...
ReplyDeleteAdding to GE short at $19.95. The stock is below the 50 DMA...I would think GE would be affected at least sentiment-wise by budget cuts.
ReplyDeleteCan someone pass JB a beer. He's getting all upset again.
ReplyDeleteVery nice reminiscences of your days as a trader on CC, t3d. If that's the kind of stress one needs to endure, not for me.
ReplyDeleteout of my short on GE...ugh.
ReplyDeleteCAK in play. New one to me.
ReplyDeleteWent long JPM at $46.25
ReplyDeleteKeeping my trades short and sweet. Not a ton of conviction but todays action screams buy. Check out NKE by the way...looks interesting.
ReplyDeleteOh it would figure we don't get a sell off to lower trend line! And of course NKE trades up to $79+++!
ReplyDeleteObviously another bear trap, there must be plenty of them just chomping at the bit to catch the top. I guess they'll never run out of money, they're so permanently and steadfastly bearish..
That's okay, I'll get 'em back for that....
That's what I like to hear, CP. Payback.
ReplyDeleteFTWR- Whew...That's better.
ReplyDeleteholy moly...look at SIFY.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You're boyfriend is on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteNKE - Turning up
ReplyDeleteHK is rather snappy today. Yesterday's 13G?
ReplyDeleteWith all of the NKE crap my kids wear, I can't trade it. Could be considered 'insider trading'.
HK - Nice chart...Short May 22 puts interesting w/ delta < 0.20 Thanks
ReplyDeleteOK, I am awake again. I see that my waking up early cost me A LOT of money. Last night, I didn't have a stop on REDF and had a stop on DANG at $19.25. If I had just slept happily through the market's open, then I would still have both positions (2K shares of DANG and 1K shares of REDF) instead of stopping myself out at $19.43 from DANG and $7.90 from REDF.
ReplyDeleteAll together, my unsuccessful trades over the past month (CCJ, F, REDF, DANG) cost me just about 2% of my portfolio. That doesn't seem bad in percentage terms (thanks to the relatively small position sizes I was using), but in absolute terms it doesn't feel pleasant, since that money was just WASTED.
So, like 2nd_ave, I am taking a trading holiday, a PERMANENT one. I am happy with my positions now for the long term. About 60% of my portfolio is in ECU now, 10% in GLD, 8% in GDXJ, 10% in WATG+SORL, 4% in NOT.V, 4% in RBY, 2% in GMO, 1% in AZM.V, and the rest (including 2% that is on margin) is not even worth mentioning. :)
In order to have the dry powder to buy more GDXJ in case the market throws up when it realizes the stimulus is ending, I placed a sell stop limit order at $141/$140.90 for my GLD. That's just below the recent low, and if it is violated, then a temporary downtrend in GLD could begin. Besides, if I am taking a high-risk bet on rising gold and silver, then I don't need the slow-moving crap like GLD. :) If GLD does get into a downtrend, then I would rather buy GDXJ after it gets hit really hard, since I have no doubts about the bright future of GDXJ (1+ years ahead).
So adios, my friends, I wish the best of luck to the brave ones who want to keep fighting computers in this difficult trading game. I will check in at May OpEx, since I am short 10 WATG $5 puts, 10 RBY $5 puts, and 20 CAAS $7.50 puts.
We'll keep a seat open for you David!
ReplyDeleteDavid - You can still check in here from time to time, but I'll be the first to say I will miss your posts. Days like today get the best of all of us. I sold my JPM at $49.2 to round out 3 losing day trades today. This market is wacky. While oil stays high, there is a major dichotomy between the haves and the have nots in the retail world. Look at DECK today. Wow. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteI'm locked and loaded in cash waiting for the ZIP IPO tomorrow. The price range is $14-16 and I think anything below $19 will be a gift. I think I can sell it at 25% gain in a short period of time if I can manage to get in on it under $19.
TOF- Why didn't you get in on the IPO?
ReplyDeleteI'll sell my AAPL before GOOG's earnings tomorrow. I'm afraid of what they say about the Droid.
ReplyDeleteOK, let me briefly return to the seat that Mark kept open for me. :) I figured that the future potential of GDXJ is much smaller than that of GMO, given that the best scenario plays out for both of them (remember, GMO is expected to have $7 of net income per share once it completes its mine). As such, I decided to place a sell stop limit at $38.95/$38.90 for the 500 shares of GDXJ I picked up yesterday at $39.60. If I get stopped out, then I'll just sell $5 puts on GMO and hopefully will get it during the next market pullback.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- I'll still keep reading Hussman and Mauldin weekly, for educational purposes, and will make some weekend posts if they say anything interesting.
In fact, I may just exchange my 2K shares of RBY for 2K shares of GMO tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteDavid - That's more like it! RE: Hussman / Mauldin > I tend to listen less and less to people so consistently wrong. How are their long term track records?
ReplyDeleteMark > ok you got me...who is my boyfriend? and what IPO? Zipcar? That's tomorrow.
What the hell I thought I was your boyfriend.
ReplyDeleteDavid I don't see how this strategy is going to be any fun. In addition your port is way over dependent on a decling dollar that is already at lows. There must be some cheap way to hedge your position if their is a dramatic rise in the dollar.
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is wrong with DANG by the way...I was watching it and getting all excited for David (wasn't even aware if he was in it or not) and then i see it tanked almost $1 in the last hour.
ReplyDelete"What the hell is wrong with DANG by the way"
ReplyDeleteSame thing that's smashed(ing) nearly all the Chinese small caps???
Chicken - I agree except for the fact that every single China internet company is skyrocketing.
ReplyDeleteNKE - Well, the MM probably got it where he wanted it ($80) for this op-ex, and momo could lift it some more but I see a 5/21 op-ex MM target of $75, so I'll just wait for the pullback.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile I'll enjoy the brisket he bought for me today.
DANG is acting like an IPO which brings a whole bunch of voodoo into the price movement. There is quiet period, no long term support or resistance there is not even a 200 day MA.
ReplyDelete"every single China internet company is skyrocketing."
ReplyDeleteSure, until they get dumped in one fell swoop. Just wait till Citron or Muddy Waters publishes their next negative campaign. They wait for a nice convincing rise and an air of complacency sets in, go massively short, then BANG-ZOOM! Publish their dirty little article on some obscure hiccup contained in the earnings report. that the company cannot respond to for some inexplicable reason or another.
I'm liking HIT here, but having trouble getting past the Fukushima F'up...
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the Japan issues feed through to the world's economy and what impact that would have on growth. Given the debt levels in the global economy I'd have to think that this has the possibility of capping gains at some point.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You don't have to be embarrassed here man. That Raymond James dude.
ReplyDeleteYes, the ZIP IPO. Aren't you planning on buying in the open market? That's why I asked why you just didn't get in the IPO.
I'm confused by David's angst. Are we supposed to make money doing this?
ReplyDeleteJapan, last I heard there are two camps, one of which claims the fukyu syndrome isn't gonna create much of a dead zone, and another that says Japan suffers a large loss.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is the group claiming negligible loss is the same group that claimed it could never happen in one hundred generations, and that there are no other nuclear technologies that can be made fail safe. The same good 'ol boys club that resists recycling used fuel in a controlled way and forces their way such that third world countries are looking to recycle their own.
Something stinks, it needs to be straightened out once and for all so we can move on.
Soon's I get some time, I'm gonna try again. Each time I try, I keep running into lack of info problems such as mining uranium presents a carbon load all it's own and therefore a case is made claiming nuclear isn't carbon neutral. I look at the big picture and watch as clouds of radioactive steam waft from Fukushima spewing massive quantities of radioactive isotopes with no end in sight or any idea of how persistent they may be.
http://energyfromthorium.com/
haha...thanks Mark..Jeff Saut...good guy.
ReplyDeleteHow do you get into an IPO before it goes public?
"How do you get into an IPO before it goes public?"
ReplyDeleteTime warp machine?
If we close below 1,290 I think this market is heading down in a slow grind for a while, succumbing finally to the wall of worry.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Brokers offer them. You could have gotten in through your Schwab account. It's closed now, of course.
ReplyDeleteZIP just priced. $18. Range was 14-16. They also increased the offer size.
ReplyDeleteMark > I see...bummer. Would have loved to gotten in at $18. Hopefully I can get in around $18ish tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThis MITK.ob company is very interesting.
ReplyDeleteRe: Faded Jaded Baited Evaded newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5524 comments) on Wed, 04/13/2011 - 20:52 #83821 (in reply to #83778)
ReplyDeleteOn the heels of the premarket spike in semis I watched the crowd racing to trade it
As prices stormed out of the gate it
appeared the crowd had made it
An hour hence, a move clearly ill-fated
I was correct not to have played it
At year-end, any losses avoided have the same effect on the bottom line as gains.
Man I'm a poet and I know it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mercatuspartnersllc.com/pdf/2010-02-24/MRDC-PR.pdf
ReplyDeleteHere's a haiku for tof-
ReplyDeleteZIP
Flip
Flip my ZIP
ReplyDeleteI must be flippin' out, man. Can't be the two shots of Nadurra, can it?
ReplyDelete0630 ZIPped it!
ReplyDelete0700 Flippin' ZIP!
0730 WTF- Dang ZIP pulling a flippin' DANG!
1455 Flipped it!
1500 ZIPpee-ki-yay, ************r!
1510 Flippin' my Zippo.
Alright- sippin' it, I mean zippin' it until Thursday.
ReplyDelete2nd -- You are a poet and I know it, too. Also a musical genius putting lyrics to tunes as I have have noted on another site. Remembering the one with Bernak as the star.
ReplyDeleteSomeone delete the above crap after reading it, alright? That would be you, Mark.
ReplyDeleteillini- As a noted poet, I reserve the right to act like Norman Mailer and talk ---- anytime I'm not sober.
ReplyDeleteHopefully everyone here knows the entire above 'monologue' is a joke. Including any implications about not being sober.
ReplyDeleteSee y'all premarket.
ReplyDeleteSpotlight on the Beltway Bandits, why does it cost US taxpayers an unsustainable $500B a year(and climbing) to fund the DOD and what's the bottom line all about anyway, Alfie?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gold-speculator.com/editors-picks/49424-behind-arab-revolt-word-we-dare-not-speak.html
We're all entitled to act like NM and talk, especially after being hit with David's adios. Bummer. At least yours did not last long but I have a hunch his will. His holding of SORL is pretty bold too. I could not hang on to that ride.
ReplyDeleteFirst time I have heard mention of Nadurra here in a while. Must be good stuff. I did look it up online once and the site said yeah, it's very good. Don't even know if it's here in Peoria. My curiosity is peeked even though I mostly stick to dry red wine.
"At year-end, any losses avoided have the same effect on the bottom line as gains."
ReplyDeleteWrote the perfect Country & Western song, the last verse goes like this here:
I took a brief look at the U$D chart, and saw that I was drunk the day my paycheck arrived in the mailbox. But before I could get to the bank in the pickup truck, my money got runned over by a damned ol' train!
So I'll hang around as long as you will let me, and clutch those dollars closely while they buy less and less every day... You don't have to worry about lower prices a' comin', as long as the good ol' dollar keeps on slippin day by day...
(repeat chorus)
Mark, how about some more soccer pics or is your camera still on the fritz somewhat. My son bought a used big Canon ES-??? and was clicking like mad during the 9 year old boys's first match today. I don't even bring my Kodak point & shoot to soccer anymore. Too slow and not zoomie.
ReplyDeletePKX - Beautiful bounce off the 50 SMA, as pretty as you please.
ReplyDeleteIllini- Let's see some pics!!!
ReplyDeleteI'll give it another try in this weekends tourny.
You saw this one last night, right?
http://www.screencast.com/t/yjGReA6JdP6y
Am I right in interpreting JPM just claimed their net rose 67% this quarter due to increased participation on behalf of Joe Sixpack?
ReplyDeleteI've waited all week to go full boat in the zip ipo and then after researching mitk.ob more I've. Come to the conclusion that mitk is by far a bettter opportunity...wttf.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes this is on a phone which likes to add letters and wacky punctuation.
I know this is a dumb question but what is nadurra again?
Nadura is a liquor. Never tried it myself. From the looks of things, it's mushroom based :)
ReplyDeleteI want to say honey badger Sperm, but thats not funny right? It is actually a high priced scotch. I don't see how it could be better than Cutty Shark.
ReplyDeleteWith the retirement of David who is going to baby sit me at 12:00 am PST?
Mark got this in a E-Mail. I learned that the girl was only 12 years old. Now all the teams are having an escort to the bathroom at all times. Unbelievable. I guess you can't be too careful.
ReplyDeleteATTENTION ALL PLAYERS, PARENTS AND COACHES: SAFETY ALERT
On April 7, a TSA player was attacked in the grils restroom at Brandi Fenton despite the fact that all the lights were on and there were players and adults occupying all the fields and in the vicinity. Fortunately the player escaped without injury. The Pima County Sherriff’s department is investigating. The man, about 30, was wearing a gray sweatshirt and blue jeans. If you have any information concerning this incident or the suspect please immediately call the Pima County Sherriff at 88-CRIME (520) 882-7463.
Man, I hate hearing stuff like that, especially when there are no further details about the assailant then what he or she was wearing.
ReplyDeleteAt least they specified the person was a man and about 30 but sheesh, they should include the time of day/night of the incident, hair color, build, race, and any other info that might help identify the person. And, these restrooms where student athletes may experience such encounters don't have any kind of security cameras in this day and age or what?
I hope I didn't have anything to do with David signing off to leave the group, maybe I should consider keeping my thoughts to myself instead of just putting them out there...
ReplyDeleteXIN - PLOP!
ReplyDeleteThe AMAT we were talking about this weekend looks like Death. 14.50 looks like a bounce area for you knife catchers.
ReplyDeleteDavid, good luck! Taking breaks when you become fed up is a good idea. I hope your "Mojo" returns soon. T3d
ReplyDeleteAMAT - I'd take a stab at it around $13.50ish, I need a real bargain to get interested.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the Japan situation, there are some unknows. It could be good for AMAT though in terms of emergency orders at premium prices on a onesy/twosy basis where tools are sometimes diverted, but lead time on equipment is normally at least 6 mos, and that's the quickest bust mode, not a sustainable constant rate.
INTC - The current price looks pretty good to me.
ReplyDeleteAMAT - Are you thinking solar cell?
ReplyDeleteSolar was the catalyst a few years ago with this company.the so called silicone shortage trade.Pretty funny just typing that one. I am not sure what % of the business is their solar cells though.
ReplyDeleteIt's Silicon (Si), which is actually a hard and brittle metal. Silicone is that goopy gell stuff made by Dow nobody can figure out what the hell to use it for.
ReplyDeleteHint, don't put silicone on any metallic items unless it's specifically made for metal, most household mixtures contain an acid that will corrode anything metallic (such as your car sheetmetal).
Seriously though, I kinda lost track of where AMAT gets their bread and butter from, I assume from semiconductor production equipment and not so much solar.
TJ lived just down the road from here, and still people talk about how they study and put his ideas to work, but I think Franklin had it right and this author has overlooked the meaning of taxation. Inflation IS a form of taxation, and I doubt Franklin was dyslexic enough to have misspelled the word "certain" in such an obvious way in the title of his piece, so once again, shame on another newsletter writer for publishing more gobbledygook!
ReplyDeleteCourtesy Martin Armstrong:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Other%20Side%20of%20Inflation%20Martin%20Armstrong%2004-13-2011.pdf
Thanks for setting me straight on my periodic table. Now i am leaving the board forever. I might check back in when silver is at $15.00. So Long everyone.
ReplyDeleteFCX - Could be a buy here, I'd rather see a little lower price myself though.
ReplyDeleteWell, my career involved knowing a few things about the periodic table, so you get one complementary reprieve! ;)
ReplyDeleteIt's late, check ya tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteI decided to return once more to the honorable chair that Mark kept open for me. :) Just to let you guys know that I decided to fine tune my long-term strategy a little and removed the sell stop order on my 200 shares of GLD at $141. I bought those shares on 4/27/2010 at $117, and in just two more weeks I'll be able to book a long-term profit on them (and pay only 15% tax). Another reason for not selling GLD now is that it should only be sold during a severe correction in gold, when GDXJ gets hit REALLY hard, so as to make a lateral move from GLD into GDXJ. Right now, however, we are not even close to seeing blood on the streets in GDXJ, and so there is no reason to sell my GLD now.
ReplyDeleteMark asked why all this angst on my side, and just to be clear, I don't have any angst at all. I really like my positions now, I am very optimistic about the future, and so I just don't want to repeat the same mistake that many of us made with TCK, buying it at $4 and selling at $5. I think I'll have more strength to hold my ECU until it doubles or triples if I don't try to trade the market. And I have no doubt that ECU will double or triple within a year or two -- they are doing exactly the right thing now, steadily increasing their resource base and paying for their exploration activities using the money they are generating from selling a little of their gold and silver generated by the two small mills they got. What can possibly go wrong with such a strategy? So I want to make sure that I don't sell it too soon and that I end up paying only a 15% long-term capital gain tax on my profits.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I guess the only thing that can go wrong is if the precious metals market peaks. It's been a decade long bull market.
ReplyDeleteLooks like ZIPer is going to open @ $25.
ReplyDeletegood morning boys. bought some BHH this a.m.
ReplyDeleteJPM- Someone stepped in poo-poo.
ReplyDeleteOK, what's the story Bro?
ReplyDeletehey Mark - nothing other than a chart play, poked its nose above the 50 and I think it's good for a ride to $1.40. stop in at 1.15
ReplyDeletewhat's happening on the soccer front?
I think the low off the day was put in SPY. 3min volume/spike to S2.
ReplyDeleteJust watching FCX, to get an idea of the sentiment for metals.
ReplyDeleteNot much. Tourny this weekend.
ReplyDeleteHistorically, the week after tax day is +2%.
ReplyDeleteNatty call. 37bcf injection. Place your bets!
ReplyDeletePM's - "It's been a decade long bull market."
ReplyDeleteMy gold target remains $1570 for early July and remains undervalued in terms of Cu/AG/Crude, it's possible they may consolidate or even pull back but PM's are yet to peek. ;)
I can feel it in the air tonight, oh Lord. I've been waiting for this moment all my life, oh Lord..... ;)
CP :)
ReplyDeleteHIT - Testing the 200SMA from above, confirming support of yesterday's move.
ReplyDeletewhat a pain in the ass this has been buying this MITK
ReplyDeleteGL fans!
ReplyDeletedamnnnnn REDF!
ReplyDeleteRe: DELL -2.37%, HPQ -2.02%/ Set-up
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5525 comments) on Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:17 #83851 (in reply to #83847)
Mark- Do think this sets us up for a rally into the second week of earnings?
reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Re: DELL -2.37%, HPQ -2.02%/ Set-up newSubmitted by Mark H (558 comments) on Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:38 #83852 (in reply to #83851)
Yeah, I think the market is setting up that way. All bad news out of the way with yet?
Read this, 2nd
http://bit.ly/h6VuCX
Guys this MITK is the real deal...i was up all night last night reading about it. I think this has the potential to be a monster of an investment. Its funny I was reading all about their mobile app that allows you to take pictures of checks on your phone and deposit them directly from your phone and then I hopped in my car to go grab something at the grocery store and the first ad I hear was a Chase ad about mobile check deposits. I couldn't believe it. Chase just signed up with Mitek as a licensee of their software.
ReplyDeleteThe part of the story I couldn't figure out is how much they make on their software license. They have patents on their technology and have 5 of the 10 biggest banks signed on, along with Paypal...from a presentation I saw on their website, they charge per subscriber or per number of transactions (it's up to the bank to decide). I'd personally like to see the latter as it's projected that up to 1.5 Billion checks will be deposited via mobile phones annually. If they get $0.10 per transaction, which is an estimate I have see online, then that would be $150 Million in revenues per year. They get a 85% margin on those transactions. If you back out annual fees of $10 Million (which is double current fees) then they would make about $110 Million per year. They have about 18 Million shares so say 20 million eventually. That would equate to $5.5/share in earnings annually. Slap a 20 p/e and that equates to $110/share. I think their technology is worth at least $500 Million and the company is trading at $100 Million. It's one of the better investments I've seen in a while.