Thursday, April 14, 2011

4/15/11 Mr. Tambourine Man/ Leaving The Penalty Box

http://tinyurl.com/2bkpkqk

Take me on a trip upon your magic swirlin' ship
My senses have been stripped, my hands can't feel to grip
My toes too numb to step, wait only for my boot heels
To be wanderin'
I'm ready to go anywhere, I'm ready for to fade
Into my own parade, cast your dancing spell my way
I promise to go under it


Opting out of the market's spell the past two days has given me back my senses and enhanced my sensibilities. I can recall approaching the closed doors of the gym on the afternoon of my first middle school dance in 1967, where the sound of the Byrds on the turntable inside opened my soul to the turmoil of adolescence and the Sixties. A close second would be swinging my boot heels off the sidelines to return to the game after 48 hours in the penalty box. I'm ready to go anywhere, ready to fade the sentiment parade, cast your dancing spell my way, I promise to go under it.

93 comments:

  1. Mark- There must be easier ways to ask for donations to keep the blog afloat.

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  2. CADC - Hmm, refuses to fall under $3...

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  3. The sharp moves in SLV/GLD- does anyone have a take as to what the spikes presage for the market in general?

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  4. Could mean absolutely nothing.

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  5. On the heels of tof's comments about waiting for the fat pitch, and David's decision to depart day trading, we should all reconsider the advisability of excessive trading.

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  6. Re: Silver/ INTC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5530 comments) on Thu, 04/14/2011 - 21:56 #83904 (in reply to #83903)
    Kind of takes me back to March '09, when we all tossed around the idea of buying companies like TCK and holding on. Talk about turning trash into gold- had we been able to pick up stocks others were tossing away and done nothing more than shelve them for 2 years, we'd have extraordinary gains.

    What's being tossed away today? Stocks like BAC/CSCO/INTC rank just a grade above toxic trash. I like toxic trash- but I don't like losing money. The ultimate buy might be INTC post-earnings next Tuesday on bad guidance. It may also be a buy on good guidance. No plans to game INTC ahead of earnings- but anyone interested in opening a position should be prepared ahead of time.

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  7. PM price spikes - I haven't checked the news yet tonight but my first guess would be whatever got us here in the first place?

    Seems like one heck of a lot of resistance though, until the static forces are finally overcome?

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  8. Hmm, SLW didn't do very well today while SLV was shining.

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  9. Congress gonna raise the debt limit?

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  10. I am looking for good companies that have outperformed SPX in the last 5 days. So far have come up with WFMI and PG. JNJ qualifies but is kinda flat as are many more, I suppose. Is this a flight to quality and dividends. PG leads with WFMI a rather close second and SPX negative 1.8% or so. PG recently declared a nice divy increase, continuing a historical trend.

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  11. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=wfmi#chart2:symbol=wfmi;range=5d;compare=pg+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=off;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined for latter post chart.

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  12. RB- Here's a pic from the game OSU played against the Timberwolves. Chase is in the orange of course. Scroll through the other pics. I guess this is a professionals site.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/ericksonimages/5604682759/in/photostream/#/

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  13. Illini - check out SWY.

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  14. i kinda miss the real time chat. i feel like we've grown apart since then...

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  15. JNJ - Just recalled another product today?

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  16. Great! Pics mark. Kind of sad, the crowd size, but its not lingerie football.
    Chase is probably having the time of his life.

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  17. Team; Communication is the cornerstone of a great relationship! We should talk through any problems and keep the chat lines open.

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  18. "Best Buy to shrink big boxes, add wireless stores"

    Sounds like Radio Shack business model.

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  19. TOF- Just wait until you and your lovely bride (which pictures of said have not been updated) just start emailing each other.

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  20. damn mark...now you're really depressing me.

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  21. TOF- That's my job as a senior adviser...

    Let's see what tomorrow brings...

    * Q1 EPS forecast of $0.27 vs. $0.28 a year ago
    * Revenue, lending expected to decline - analyst
    * Mortgage costs continue to weigh on results
    By Joe Rauch
    CHARLOTTE, N.C., April 15 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp is expected to report a 9 percent drop in its first quarter profit,
    as U.S. consumer lending contracts and the costs for collecting on mortgages continue to rise.
    Analysts estimate the largest U.S. bank will report net income of $2.9 billion, or 27 cents per share, down from $3.2 billion, or
    28 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2010, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
    Bank of America's results come two days after rival JPMorgan Chase & Co -- the second largest U.S. bank by assets --
    reported weaker consumer lending and more than $1 billion in added costs for servicing mortgages due, in part, to a
    settlement with bank regulators over problems in the industry's foreclosure practices.
    Those same factors could hit Bank of America, analysts said.
    "The company is profitable, but revenue growth is constrained and the costs in the mortgage business just keep increasing,"
    said Jefferson Harralson, bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. "They've had this general trend of lagging their
    peers coming out of this recession."

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  22. Sad to hear of Joe B's passing.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42597493

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  23. JB > yeah i was too man. I heard about his massive heart attack and I kid you not it inspired me to go to the gym right after.

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  24. tof - wow, didn't hear the cause, glad I hit the cardio too this a.m., now for a little extra V8 (yuck!)

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  25. Mark- I was referring to your Comment Cleaner.

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  26. Bought some DECK at $91.72 this morning. I think this is going to par.

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  27. RBY @ 5.16 @ S2 for a ST trade.

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  28. JB- TRE could get ugly today. Be careful.

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  29. Wow...VIX under 15. market going much higher

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  30. ES has to push through 1314 or we'll stall out at a critical MP level

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  31. Wow DECK ripping higher. Nice!

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  32. CP- Did you put AONE through the ringer or is this a simple scalper ramma.

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  33. GS just bought a ton of ES at 15, let's see now if we can move to 20

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  34. Mark - Just trading the chart, but they've got to be selling one heck of a lotta batteries, don't they (guess)?

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  35. CP- Thanks. I'd like to get behind this one, but damn, they lose for money each quarter than the previous.

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  36. RBY off @ 5.26. Covers the weekend.

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  37. now MS is buying at 15, the big guys want the ES to run today

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  38. funny, MS bought all the way from 15 down to 14, gonna be a battle

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  39. TOF- Dont know if you use pivots, but deck has been rejected at R2 3 times this morning. Not sure how long of a trade this is for you. Break of 95.48 and away she goes.

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  40. BAC breaks 12.96 then watch the F out.

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  41. Distrust newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5532 comments) on Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:17 #83927
    I think Geoff's opening report points out the one thing that counts- earnings (more importantly, future guidance) haven't come through. He also mentioned that we're on the precipice of seasonal headwinds. Add in recent posts re high sentiment levels, and that's three reasons to avoid risk right now.

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  42. JB- Where do you get the brokers feed?

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  43. Illini- Glad you bailed on SORL buddy.

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  44. Sold $94.9 DECK

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  45. Well, I guess it's watch the ---- out time for BAC.

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  46. AONE - Yeah, perhaps foreign subsidies make it impossible to manufacture batteries in the US?

    Obviously I didn't negotiate my entry very well...

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  47. Next stop for BAC is gap fill valley route 12.08.

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  48. Slipped my mind, its Option expo, generally do not like to trade these days as cross currents are strong.

    Joe B., was a big man, does not surprise me it was a heart attack.

    Have a great weekend all

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  49. TOo boring for me. Going to join Tele on the sidelines. have a great weekend.

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  50. c-ya guys, back mid day. great weekend to all

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  51. Long QIHU for a daytrade at $30.58

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  52. AONE - Doubled down @ $5.37, sold the first half at cost.

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  53. Chicken > AONE scares me man. (hehe but a just IPOd china stock (QIHU) doesn't)

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  54. I bailed on KMI yesterday as well as SORL. Reducing risk and adding to cash. Still holding GLD and RBY at a profit plus CSCO at a loss. CSCO really struggling like most tech. Look at JNJ today. Big move up continuing a trend started mid March off a low point.

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  55. AONE - Who's gonna make the batteries for all the electric cars in the pipeline? I can see these cars coming, especially with the promise of batteries that will eventually run a small car 500 miles on a charge.

    So if AONE doesn't make these, who will?

    It doesn't really matter though, b/c I'll more than likely get tired and sell and the company gets delisted before any orders come through.

    Chinese stocks seem to be following a trend. Sheesh, let me know when they stop cratering!

    CADC has been sitting just above $3 for several days, like someone's accumulating or the automated trading is waiting for complacency to set in before taking new buyers for a bath.

    I mean, look at junior gold miners, gold is setting exciting new highs and GDXJ is freekin' red! That's gotta be automated trading machines trading the stocks down in 100 shares lots...???

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  56. After not following the market for the past few days, I finally let go of LMLP for a slight loss as I don't like the way its acting. I see TOF's Masala Dosai's are acting very well. I was thinking about picking some SIFY up this morning down 11%. I now see it down 3%. F'ing monsters lol. Still holding UNG and just picked up MIPS after a near 50% retracement. I like the chart heading into earnings on the 25th (I believe). Will not hold through earnings, however. Weekly chart perhaps set up for a big move next week. Just picked some up at $10.

    Some bullish commentary on MIPS- http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_M/threadview?m=tm&bn=11684&tid=43966&mid=43966&tof=6&frt=5

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  57. Crap, guess I'd better start working on my IRS return this weekend!

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  58. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/15/kevin-na-meltdown-16-par-4_n_849621.html?fbwall

    classic stuff...sometimes i feel this way with the market.

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  59. Rally=TZA kill shot newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5533 comments) on Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:26 #83950
    For some reason, today's rally feels manufactured for the sole purpose of stopping out ultrashort positions.

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  60. Re: Rally=TZA kill shot/ Sinking Ship newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5534 comments) on Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:32 #83951 (in reply to #83950)
    That, or they're firing cannons off the starboard bow of a sinking ship.

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  61. MIPS - Good one, looks like a potential breakout from downtrend in progress to me...

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  62. LIWA - Remember when we were looking to enter around $10?

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  63. 2011 Gold value index printed a new low Monday, and today gold puts in a new price high.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lGesWWJ97mE/TaJ2RoncOlI/AAAAAAAADLc/kwIy2-pYu58/s1600/GVI%2B%252804-08-2011%2529%2B660W.jpg

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  64. CP-

    Outside of my GDXJ trade in January, I am by no means a Gold investor as I trade simply by setups...thus I have no opinion on miners/gold etc...

    Looking at the chart you just posted, it looks like the chart is poised to break big time to the upside. Does GVI at new lows mean gold is undervalued or overvalued?

    On a separate note, I understand gold and silver as a hedge against the Usd's decline. But, on days when the dollar declines say .25%, gold and silver go up 2,3,4%. I don't understand how that is sustainable over the longer term. Over the long term, if the dollar declines say 10%, shouldn't gold and silver go up 10,12, 15%?

    In the past year, the dollar has declined about 15%. As a hedge against this decline, I would expect silver to increase 15% or so. Silver has increased 150%. Seems like everyone is on board the (BillCara) gold and silver train to offset marginal declines in the dollar. Is this not a potential MAJOR metals bubble in the making?

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  65. Stopped out of my crapped China internet stock (QIHU) at $29.8

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  66. AAPL's coming back to me really fast.

    GOOG is officially persona non grata. That wussy Page only made a token appearance on the CC today.

    See how I can be??

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  67. TOF- Your bride wouldn't be mad if you picked up ADES for the weekend would she?

    Ut Oh...There goes AAPL.

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  68. Sold MIPS. Don't like the market here at all. Want to pick up TZA but after all these years, I've finally realized that shorting (outside of puts) is a sucker's bet.

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  69. Jesse- I don't like it either. Red close.

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  70. TRE mail. Let's see if this helps that sucker.

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  71. OK, a freebee from my paid site...

    "Actionable Alert...Comprehensive earnings review...They've sucked."

    Your welcome.

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  72. "I would expect silver to increase 15% or so. Silver has increased 150%."

    Silver is a much smaller market then the USD. There are several important variables missing from your argument, the opposite of this expectation could be the reality.

    Yes, the chart indicates gold remains undervalued with respect to silver/oil/copper

    Note copper traded yesterday at $38,500/tonne, here are the end-points for relative value comparison:

    Gold/oil: 25.9 bbl/oz (6/7/10) 13.6 bbl/oz (today) down 47.5%
    Gold/silver: 68.3 oz/oz (6/7/10) 41.5 oz/oz (today) down 39.2%
    Gold/copper: 449 lbs/oz (6/7/10) 323 lbs/oz (today) down 28.1%

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  73. Take a look at the last hour for LVS.

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  74. AONE - Off @ $5.53 prior to close.

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  75. Traded CSCO in the last 1 1/2 hours. 1000 bot 16.99, sold 17.02 seconds before the close. The whopping net gain of $16 is the only green I have had on that stock. Still holding other chunks at a loss.

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  76. I worried about CSCO, as far as I can tell they are still going to be the comms backbone for all things cloud/saas so I don't get the slow sell off. Even if they can some or most of their consumer facing biz their core s/b more than enough to justify a much higher valuation.

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  77. As bad as it sounds...Trolling for ADES AH @ 11.20.

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