Sunday, April 17, 2011

4/17/11 Where The Shadows Run From Themselves

http://tinyurl.com/59o7mx

I'll wait in this place where the sun never shines
Wait in this place where the shadows run from themselves

Why are we all busting our ---es playing the upper register of a two-year rally? If it's all about buying low and selling high, we should be taking our cues from Marc Faber- the only real buys right now may be NGas and Japan.
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98 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveApril 17, 2011 at 5:46 PM

    Take a look at DXJ- a fund that allows you to trade Japan while hedging against currency fluctuations.

    ReplyDelete
  2. MarkWApril 17, 2011 at 6:24 PM

    Long day. Kendra did great.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/BvZNbKwtP

    http://www.screencast.com/t/0aVwxYkVnhgy

    http://www.screencast.com/t/zl1D374gZrM

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Ci0ckwZHZrY

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Ej0misnO

    http://www.screencast.com/t/km19jAIhKqo8

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NVWDMsYmbG

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  3. illiniApril 17, 2011 at 6:59 PM

    Good shots Mark. Looks like she flies like a bird sometimes with those arms outstretched.

    ReplyDelete
  4. illiniApril 17, 2011 at 7:09 PM

    DXJ and EWJ both look awful since the earthquake. Mark Farber hedged his remarks by saying "all bets are off" if there is a meltdown. Well, we already are having partial meltdowns and they may not be able to maintain the now flawed cooling systems for very long.

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  5. MarkWApril 17, 2011 at 8:09 PM

    Thanks Illini. I was really proud of her today. She's at the point where she can change the nature of a game.

    Market related...I plan on taking advantage of the historical data the week after tax day.

    ReplyDelete
  6. RoBearApril 17, 2011 at 8:24 PM

    OHH my goodness I cannot believe that grass. ( the stuff on the soccer field). Don't they have lawnmowers up there? It must be a real tiring match slogging through that jungle. Neil says he prefers the kaliche and pebbles that we call a field.

    ReplyDelete
  7. teamonfuegoApril 17, 2011 at 9:28 PM

    2nd - if you think of it this way: over the past 10 years we have only been above this level on the S&P 500 for 17 months. maybe we are pressing a little bit by being bullish.

    Mark - Sounds like you had a long, but great day man. Nothing beats spending time with the family. I'd take that over a day in the market anytime.

    ReplyDelete
  8. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 3:04 AM

    tof- I agree. It's interesting how long it takes us to change our own sentiments- something we need to monitor as well. We've both been bullish since last August. Maybe it's time for a change.

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  9. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 3:21 AM

    Mark- I didn't want to say anything, but being a friend I have to point it out: You have no life outside your family, man. You need to balance those soccer games with a little high stakes poker- heck, if you're serious about living life to the fullest, go back to the ultrashorts. Your posts used to be all about FAZ- now it's just screenshots of playing fields. Look, David's too polite, but I think the real reason he left is the absence of risk-taking on this site. You've reverted to investing (in family, for crying out loud)- let's go back to gambling, OK?

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  10. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 4:03 AM

    Little early morning fun - long ES 1309.50

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  11. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 4:19 AM

    1/3 off 10.75, stop up to b/e

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  12. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 4:36 AM

    stopped out 9.50, long 6E 4272

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  13. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 4:44 AM

    this 6E is coiling, bouncing right at the bottom, come on sucker spring higher!

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  14. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 4:47 AM

    ouch, thought we were going to move up, then bam, what an ugly red candle. stopped out of 6E

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  15. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 4:57 AM

    jb- OK, that takes of the morning table action.

    ReplyDelete
  16. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 5:08 AM

    yeah 2nd, time for me to put down the dice!

    ReplyDelete
  17. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 5:15 AM

    the ES is really whippy this morning, MP doesn't track well in this type of environment.

    ReplyDelete
  18. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 5:15 AM

    NGas/Japan, CSCO/INTC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5537 comments) on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 08:14 #84032
    If stock prices are on the edge of a sustained slide, why not turn to sectors that may be pulling out of one? Japan is likely to see continued weakness during a global sell-off, of course. Re Japan, I'm looking at DXJ as an alternative to EWJ to hedge against moves in the yen.

    I still like the large-cap value sector. But I have to respect the price action in stocks like CSCO and INTC. Ready to jump back in at any time.

    ReplyDelete
  19. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 5:24 AM

    I'm going to check out DXJ, haven't worked with the Wisdom Tree products before.

    ReplyDelete
  20. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 6:22 AM

    DJIA futes -135

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  21. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 6:25 AM

    Gonna be a little tough for me today. Most of the stuff I follow is already below S2.

    ReplyDelete
  22. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 6:29 AM

    Gold - That sure was fast, they sold that rhino horn as soon as it printed!

    ReplyDelete
  23. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 6:40 AM

    Re: This just sent market down screaming/ First take newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5538 comments) on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:35 #84042 (in reply to #84037)
    Thanks, Vad. Let us know if you come up with any if/then scenarios. My immediate take (subject to change, of course) is that dip-buyers get burned this time.

    ReplyDelete
  24. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 6:41 AM

    Hedge fund trade: Long PM's, short miners? Kinda looks that way... This should be fun!

    AONE - Guess I shoulda kept it...?

    ReplyDelete
  25. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 6:54 AM

    Re: This just sent market down screaming/ First take newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5539 comments) on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:54 #84049 (in reply to #84042)
    The intrepid dip-buying front line just got burned. Or maybe they're taking one for the team.

    ReplyDelete
  26. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 7:07 AM

    "MARKET TALK: Citi Sees Strong Sneaker, Athletic Wear Sales

    4/15/11Dow JonesRelated Investments: Dicks Sporting Goods Inc"

    ReplyDelete
  27. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 7:08 AM

    yikes, es now below 92, this could accelerate, big boys are selling on the lows

    ReplyDelete
  28. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 7:10 AM

    Re: This just sent market down screaming/ First take
    Submitted by Mark H (571 comments) on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:42 #84043 (in reply to #84042)
    2nd,

    Hate to say it, but I think this was known about on Friday. I'm taking the opportunity to buy here.

    ReplyDelete
  29. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 7:11 AM

    Re: This just sent market down screaming/ First take newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5540 comments) on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:07 #84056 (in reply to #84043)
    'I'm taking the opportunity to buy here.'

    Mark- Why not wait for the ambulances to leave- then it'll be just you and Cinderella

    ReplyDelete
  30. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 7:13 AM

    counter trend trade: long ES 1293.25, 4 tick stop

    ReplyDelete
  31. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 7:16 AM

    lost the set up, off flat at 93.25, now needs to get above 94.50 for counter trend. the trade now would be short 92.50

    ReplyDelete
  32. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    1300 held up about as good as the 49er frontline.

    ReplyDelete
  33. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    wow, 4-5 tick swings, putting the dice down for real this time

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  34. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 7:21 AM

    as usual set the damn dice down too soon!

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  35. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 7:23 AM

    Copper - Off 1%

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  36. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 7:27 AM

    RB- Yeah, the grass was brutal yesterday...Like playing in sand. I felt sorry for the girls. They were so friggin tired.

    ReplyDelete
  37. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 7:30 AM

    Nice pix Mark, you need to go to work for the IJ

    ReplyDelete
  38. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    SLW taking a whacking.

    ReplyDelete
  39. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 7:42 AM

    U$D - Seems like the good 'ol dollar can go up after all, and PM's down at the same time. I don't think the bottom's in quite yet though.

    ReplyDelete
  40. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    RB - Lawnmowers are outlawed in Cali, but not the traffic jam.

    ReplyDelete
  41. JesseApril 18, 2011 at 7:52 AM

    2nd-

    Below is the only thing of note that I see from ST. FYI- I sold all my holdings at the open at a loss. EDZ and many world inverse etfs have similar charts to the U.S. market at the lows in 2009- bottoming sideways action and then one last 1-2 week steep downturn below support to get all of the last bulls (bears in this case) out of the market, then......zoom....off to the races. I almost see the exact opposite happening now. Especially in EEM, EWA etc...

    "Still somewhat troubling, though, is that we recently witnessed one of the first times in months that equities didn't rebound almost immediately after the STEM.MR model reached oversold levels (on April 8th). That's a warning of eager and persistent selling pressure, and now the model is back to overbought territory again."

    ReplyDelete
  42. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 8:05 AM

    GL guys....although it looks like most of us are sitting this one out.

    ReplyDelete
  43. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 8:05 AM

    unreal price action in the 6E, ES getting close to new lows

    ReplyDelete
  44. teamonfuegoApril 18, 2011 at 8:50 AM

    On days like this I always wonder WWLBBT.

    As in what would Laszlo Birinyi be thinking? You know, he of the 2,100-2,800 S&P 2013 call. Personally, I'm keeping my positions (which are MITK and SPY)

    ReplyDelete
  45. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:04 AM

    UNG - Even this sucker's down, that's odd.

    ReplyDelete
  46. JesseApril 18, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    CP- UNG tested 20 day (rolling over) to the penny at 11.15 today and Thursday. The 20 day has been THE line in the sand for uptrends and downtrends the past 3 months. As much as I love UNG, like always, I must trade what I see.

    ReplyDelete
  47. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:44 AM

    Will gasoline prices peak around Memorial day? That's the typical seasonal peak, isn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  48. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    The Gold Value Index (GVI) remains below-par (gold is underpriced in reference to oil and silver) at 70.77 up from Friday's close of 70.19 and the 3rd day above the 1-month moving average which is now 69.84. Gold is presently gaining value.

    ReplyDelete
  49. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:57 AM

    Correction, IE: gold is underpriced in reference to oil, copper and silver.

    ReplyDelete
  50. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 10:08 AM

    AONE - "A123 Shares Spike As Goldman Upgrades Rating To Buy"

    ReplyDelete
  51. teamonfuegoApril 18, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    not sure why my post about MITK keeps getting deleted but I basically confirmed everything I suspected about this company through a conversation with their finance director. See cara community for details. The company is going to $50 in 2 years.

    ReplyDelete
  52. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    tof - love the space MITK is playing in, if they are real good my guess is that they get bought sooner rather than later. mobile banking is huge, orcl, sap, hpq and ibm are making deals in this space weekly.

    ReplyDelete
  53. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 11:34 AM

    TOF- Great write up. I had a bid in today that didn't get filled.

    ReplyDelete
  54. teamonfuegoApril 18, 2011 at 11:35 AM

    JB > yep...its crazy. they have an addressable market of $1.5 Billion and they basically own the market and its just in its infancy. I seriously could see this company become a $2-$3 Billion company if everything goes right. If not then just based on their current contracts they should be at least a 5-bagger.

    ReplyDelete
  55. JesseApril 18, 2011 at 11:40 AM

    Some good Silver charts. Check out the 4th chart to see how silver reacts when it is 50-68% above its 200 day. It is currently about 63% above its 200day....

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s202311998]&disp=O

    ReplyDelete
  56. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 11:41 AM

    Seeing if I can get a good entry into MGIC.

    ReplyDelete
  57. JBmaderaApril 18, 2011 at 12:08 PM

    mgic is interesting, what the heck are you guys doing trolling around in the s/w space, I think that there are tougher rules when trying to acquire Israeli co's but this one interesting as a stand alone, tons of pressure on pharma right now to keep costs down

    ReplyDelete
  58. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 12:18 PM

    JB- You know me...I'm not afraid to venture over to the wild side.

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  59. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 12:19 PM

    Nice little pop for DANG.

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  60. Telestar3dApril 18, 2011 at 12:19 PM

    MGIC, earnings 28 APR

    article on their three segments

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Magic-Softwares-Trick-ibd-620719485.html?x=0&.v=1

    ReplyDelete
  61. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 12:22 PM

    OK, TOF. Legged into 2 positions in MITC. 5.70/5.73. 6K shares. I'll add on a good pull back, but if it really goes, I have enough shares to enjoy it.

    ReplyDelete
  62. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 12:24 PM

    Silver - Yes, not only is it considered a currency but it's an industrial metal as well.

    Of course Silver has already reached my target, the technical target is $43.91. I'm considering going short.

    PM miners have been weak for several days.

    Perhaps if silver begins following oil and copper, gold will follow silver?

    ReplyDelete
  63. JesseApril 18, 2011 at 12:35 PM

    Picked up May 37.50 calls on CREE. I see potential setups in semi land. Best scenario is slightly positive TXN guidance and a flat to slightly higher open.

    ReplyDelete
  64. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

    Pz- OAKBX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5541 comments) on Mon, 04/18/2011 - 15:52 #84113
    Pillzilla- Are you entertaining playing a one-day bounce? Thought about it for 5 minutes, and decided to stick with my first take- dip-buyers beware until sentiment turns ugly.

    ReplyDelete
  65. teamonfuegoApril 18, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    DANG! David - please tell me you're still holding.

    ReplyDelete
  66. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 1:02 PM

    SSO @ 51.60 per my historical data play.

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  67. 2nd_aveApril 18, 2011 at 1:08 PM

    Historical data play?

    ReplyDelete
  68. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 1:18 PM

    AMRN - Off before close. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  69. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 1:40 PM

    VE - H&S breakdown

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  70. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 2:13 PM

    TXN - Woops!

    ReplyDelete
  71. teamonfuegoApril 18, 2011 at 3:51 PM

    Mark - If MITK dips to $4 I want no responsibility for it. However, if it goes to $50 then I'd like one fine bottle of Nadurra...just so I can see what all the talk is about.

    ReplyDelete
  72. illiniApril 18, 2011 at 4:42 PM

    IRobot Corp is supplying the equipment (IRBT):

    "Readings from robots report radiation inside Japan’s reactor buildings too high for workers"

    www.washingtonpost.com/business/polls-show-diminishing-support-for-japanese-governments-handling-of-triple-disasters/2011/04/17/AFGXSfwD_story.html

    ReplyDelete
  73. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 5:36 PM

    Obviously he meant hysterical data play????

    ReplyDelete
  74. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 5:38 PM

    Irobot (IRBT) - I heard the same about a week ago, on the local news. Started to look up the ticker, but got side tracked...

    ReplyDelete
  75. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 6:30 PM

    Irbt. I have owned it and is always on my watch list. Their main business is the little vacuum deally that works on its own like a pool scupper.

    ReplyDelete
  76. illiniApril 18, 2011 at 6:33 PM

    Doing the dirty work in a reactor makes the robot a disposable product. It will glow in the dark for many years though. My son has a gift roomba which is fun to watch especially by the 4 kids (but not the dog).

    ReplyDelete
  77. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 6:48 PM

    Read an article on zip car that included an analysis who was ultra negative on the stock. made me want to buy it. Whats wrong with me?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/zipcar-faces-a-bumpy-road-to-profits/article1990326/

    ReplyDelete
  78. illiniApril 18, 2011 at 6:50 PM

    I have no position in IRBT (35.46) but wish the heck I had taken one in March 09 @ 7.5.

    "Heck"- bet you haven't seen that "cuss" word in a while.

    ReplyDelete
  79. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 7:05 PM

    2nd- Over the last 15 years the SPX has risen 2% the week after April 15th. (Tax day)

    ReplyDelete
  80. teamonfuegoApril 18, 2011 at 7:21 PM

    RB > ZIP was a bargain at $14 to $16 IPO price. At $26 it's a different story. I was hoping to get in at $18-$19 on the IPO day and sell it later at $25 but it just gapped up way over that.

    ReplyDelete
  81. illiniApril 18, 2011 at 7:31 PM

    Mark - My four year old grandson played his first game Saturday. I did not attend because of the conditions...light drizzle, windy and in the 40's (not typical here). He scored 6 goals in a 7-0 game and he says he passed to a team mate for the 7th (verified by his Dad who asked him whether that was a pass or a shot. Answer--a pass ??.)

    Nathan told me some of the kids on the other team were "cwying" ...no typo... because of the cold. Or was it the agony of "de feat". Shake your legs when you say that.

    ReplyDelete
  82. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 7:41 PM

    4 years old!? Yikes, they don't start games here until 5. I'd love to see a pic! If your worried about posting one here, email it to me.

    ReplyDelete
  83. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 7:42 PM

    "windy and in the 40's"

    I can't think of a better way to punish a kid, or I should say, test his love for soccer...

    ReplyDelete
  84. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 7:48 PM

    Illi, Mark is the reason I cuss so much. heck I like hek. IRBT would of been nice at $7.50, but its the type of stock that could go to $100 now. If i can get it to settle down in a nice tight box I will not hesitate to add on a breakout.

    ZIP I know its overvalued, I plan on trading it not owning it. When the shorts think they have the upper hand pow $30.00

    ReplyDelete
  85. MarkWApril 18, 2011 at 7:52 PM

    This is all I got on this...


    A Thomson Reuters News Story is released for Bank of America Corp:

    Source: Thomson Reuters

    Monday, April 18, 2011 at 22:45 EDT

    "PRESS DIGEST - Financial Times - April 19"

    The Financial Times

    CITI PUTS $12.7BLN PORFOLIO UP FOR SALE

    U.S. bank Citigroup has put up for sale a $12.7
    billion portfolio of bad assets that were responsible for some
    of its biggest losses during the financial crisis.

    ReplyDelete
  86. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 8:01 PM

    REDF looks like it is getting ready to POP big time.

    ReplyDelete
  87. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 8:10 PM

    REDF - To me, it looks like it has already...

    ReplyDelete
  88. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 8:32 PM

    I mean bigger!

    ReplyDelete
  89. RoBearApril 18, 2011 at 8:34 PM

    Goldman reports tomorrow. Can it even move the market anymore. Its chart looks sick.

    ReplyDelete
  90. illiniApril 18, 2011 at 8:44 PM

    Mark... FYI, in the 4 yr old "competition" they do not have goalies. The coaches are the referees and teachers. Its all for fun.

    ReplyDelete
  91. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:14 PM

    GS - Well, when a trading firm front-runs their own customers, probably they front-run their shareholders as well? Besides, doesn't the CEO make more or equal salary than the company reports as profit?

    I feel the same way about Berkshire now.

    ReplyDelete
  92. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:35 PM

    Agora - Oh yes, I've seen that lawsuit plastered all over too. I'm surprised the CC board wasn't aware, or on second thought I'm not surprised.

    ReplyDelete
  93. ChickenpookieApril 18, 2011 at 9:39 PM

    Time to short oil yet? Or maybe silver...?

    ReplyDelete
  94. MarkWApril 19, 2011 at 5:56 AM

    Good news form PCAR.

    ReplyDelete
  95. teamonfuegoApril 19, 2011 at 6:07 AM

    here comes the breakout on REDF...going to double digits today. craziness.

    ReplyDelete
  96. JBmaderaApril 19, 2011 at 6:13 AM

    tof - are you still long redf?

    ReplyDelete
  97. MarkWApril 19, 2011 at 6:15 AM

    New post...

    ReplyDelete
  98. ChickenpookieApril 19, 2011 at 7:37 AM

    BTU - Cheap enough yet?

    ReplyDelete

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