http://tinyurl.com/5jl3mc
Clearly a hunch. CSCO to 50% of allocation in two separate transactions @ 16.7x. WFC to 50% of allocation @ 30.20.
If I'm wrong, I'm willing to take the hit.
Most recent sales of each: CSCO @ 17.40 April 21, WFC @ 31.80 March 21. Can't deny a psychological tint to the trades.
$11B Glencore IPO - Is Glencore dumping on an unsuspecting public/is this ringing a few alarm bells in commodityville?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-14/goldman-sachs-misses-out-on-11-billion-glencore-initial-sale.html
ES is trading higher, only .25 off the low.
ReplyDeleteCP - I think the Glencore IPO is a classic sell at the top ploy.
Still long "old tech": csco, intc, yhoo, sap, etc
I've probably shared more than once listening to a young street musician playing 'Drift Away' on the steps of Union Square in '73. This song more than any other takes me back to the days of falling asleep to a transistor radio jammed next to my ear while living in an SRO on Jones.
ReplyDeleteShould have taken a flyer on INTC. That's the danger of having a 'bias.' Can't really say I made the wrong move, however. No way for me to have known reaction to INTC earnings.
ReplyDeleteOf course, you can also say I have no way of knowing reaction to WFC earnings. That one's a pure hunch. SOMEthing has to light a fire under financials, and being a long-time WFC customer + wife an ex-employee I believe if ANY bank has a shot at it, it's WFC.
Re: Opening CSCO/WFC after hours @ 16.7x/30.20 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5546 comments) on Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:13 #84214 (in reply to #84211)
ReplyDeleteI've probably shared more than once listening to a young street musician playing 'Drift Away' on the steps of Union Square in '73. This song more than any other takes me back to the days of falling asleep to a transistor radio jammed next to my ear while living in an SRO on Jones.
I hit the same streets more or less these days on my to work in the morning. In that sense I can identify with Chris Gardner: http://tinyurl.com/3faosv3
Anyone buy ZIP this morning at 26? Riight.
ReplyDeleteJB said: "I think the Glencore IPO is a classic sell at the top ploy."
ReplyDeleteThere are quite a few folks who think the same thing, from what I hear.
Well, it looks like Trump is going to be my neighbor...
ReplyDeleteFCX - Reports tomorrow, not sure when.
ReplyDeleteCP- Cool. Now you can have someone look after your ducks when you come out to visit us!
ReplyDeleteRB- F you.
Igor- I just really like VMW's products and glad to see them doing well.
CREE- Man, this is one sick dog. I find it interesting that I'm starting to see mass use of LED's for lighting here and the Co.'s tanking.
TOF- Found this on a GOOG search today for MITK.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sdbj.com/news/2011/apr/18/top...
Pretty good wrap up if anyone is interested.
Come on Mark having a censor isn't bad. You could be in Jesse's shoes with a terrible case of the MIPS!
ReplyDeleteThat's right RB. I forgot I caught MIPS for the first time in 8th grade. But she was a really cute transfer student from France ;)
ReplyDeleteMan, what and EOD boner...
ReplyDeleteMDFI.PK - A penny stock.
ReplyDeleteMark > thanks for the link. That article perfectly sums up why I'm in MITK. The company is basically at the center of a major turning point in mobile banking.
ReplyDeleteWATG has some momentum. I think it is a buy right here on a risk reward basis. .75 for 1.50 in gains.
ReplyDeleteAKAM I like above 40.00 in a Positive market.
ReplyDeleteARUN RAX Could gap and go. Mako looks to be ready for a second impulse higher. DAL is a buy on any weakness in oil. Mid major oil drillers had a good day today HAL BHI. Wonder if it will continue.
ReplyDeleteOpened INTC @ 20.99/ Added to CSCO @ 16.8x/ WFC at the plate newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5547 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 07:31 #84228
ReplyDeleteBack in the bull ring, at least for a day.
ES backing off its overnight highs, but still looking good. Going short 6e here at 4485, 8 tick stop, scale out at 8, 12 and 20+
ReplyDeletestopped out - man, I have been so off on MP for 6E, why go long usd vs euro when the es is in an up channel..DOH!
ReplyDeleteRe: WFC at the plate newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5548 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:10 #84238 (in reply to #84228)
ReplyDeleteLine drive short of the fence, but IMO places it solidly ahead of banks like BAC.
Sentiment Survey Updates newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5549 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:29 #84242
ReplyDeleteHas anyone come across one for this week? AAII results should be out later today.
Adding to WFC @ 29.12 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5550 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:31 #84243
ReplyDeleteTo 75% of allocation.
Re: Adding to WFC @ 29.12 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5551 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:42 #84246 (in reply to #84243)
ReplyDeleteDamn, they're sending WFC to the showers for not hitting a homer.
MDFI.PK +23%
ReplyDeleteWFC @ 28.62.
ReplyDeleteIt amazes me people still doubt the market...what's it gonna take to make people believers? 200% gains?
ReplyDeleteSome notable longer-term market notes per ST. Goes to show that nobody has "missed the boat". Investors are all-in and then some...
ReplyDelete"Options contracts currently outstanding on the S&P 100 index (OEX), which comprise most of the largest stocks in the market, has once again become skewed towards the put side.
There are currently 176 put options open for every 100 call options on that index. We saw a similarly high ratio just before the March correction, and before that we'd have to go back to July 2007 (also not a particularly auspicious time to own stocks).
Longer-term, one of the more disturbing developments is the lack of Available Cash for investors at NYSE member firms. That figure for March dropped yet again, and is now matched by only two other times in history...and both were major market peaks.
The NYSE has released its latest figures for margin debt and free cash levels at brokerage firms that are a member of that organization.
Despite an equity market that didn't go anywhere in March, margin debt jumped another 2% and free credits sank more than -5%. That's the largest one-month drop in free credits in two years.
When we subtract those free credits from margin debt to come up with a "net worth" or, as we've always called it on the site, Available Cash, we're now down to -$75.2 billion.
There have only been two periods in history where investors' Available Cash was this low - June 2007 and November 1999 - October 2000 (the red dots on the chart above). Neither of those were great periods to be taking on margin debt along with the others.
When we express Available Cash as a percentage of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, the current figure of -0.61% was matched or exceeded only by the spring and fall of 2000 during the past 20 years."
Mark - did you get into MGIC, hope so, moving up nicely this a.m.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it every second. I don't trust Her at all.
ReplyDeleteAEZS @ 2.08.
ReplyDeleteMGIC- Nope. Missed it buy .02.
ReplyDeleteJesse i was just wondering about the cash available right before your post. THen I thought about Ben then I thought about Jap Cent Bank.
ReplyDeleteGS loading up the boat again, ES near the highs, no clue what these guys are doing.
ReplyDeletesh*t, that stinks Mark, too bad!
ReplyDeleteWho trusts this rally? No one? Then it must be real ;) newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5552 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 10:21 #84259
ReplyDeleteAdding EWJ @ 10.18
counter trend, short ES 28.25, failing at the developing
ReplyDeletetof- Just noting that I composed my post prior to reading yours.
ReplyDelete1/3 off at +.5
ReplyDeletemoving stop to BE, some big orders on the buy side
ReplyDeletethere, 1/3 off at +1
ReplyDeletestop to 27.75
ReplyDeleteoil in 2mins
ReplyDeletestopped out
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteGood call on VMW!! Unfortunately I don't have any shares. Finaly enjoying some gains on INTC and CSCO for a change
Silver just about to hit a record % above its 200 day moving average. Scaling into SLV July 50 puts. Just got first position. I could it stretch out to the end of the month or through the first week of May, but not much longer.
ReplyDeleteAONE is forming a nice little flag here after GS upgrade.
ReplyDeleteGot to roll. If anyone has the time, can you find out what they hell AEZS is? Thanks. Just prudent investment practices.
ReplyDeleteCiao...
FCX - "Freeport-McMoRan Surges After Reporting Strong Copper Sales" +4.9%
ReplyDeleteGMO - Sold @ $4.23, the shares bought yesterday. It just seemed prudent.
GMO - I meant, $5.23
ReplyDeleteVMW - Very nice, remind me why weren't we in that one?
ReplyDelete"tof- Just noting that I composed my post prior to reading yours."
ReplyDeletehear hear!
No reason to support $1500 gold? How about unmanageable public and private debt? It's all phunny money, buy boatloads of treasuries to send the dollar down and avoid a deflationary spiral, meanwhile everyone just gets the heck out of those precious dollars. Tax everyone's gains to repay as much of the debt as possible before the dollar can rise again.
ReplyDeleteWhere does this lead? Hopefully to employment. Nobody knows for sure, but without employment recovery, the masses still aren't going to obtain the means to resume consumption?
Keep on inflating?
I think we've still got a ways to go, the more gains we realize the higher the IRS tax receipts?
Absent QE extension, $1330 SPY and $1500 gold are the debt limit glass ceiling?
Ain't we got fun!
Backup plan #2: The treasury debt to the FED is quietly forgiven? That couldn't possibly be dollar positive, could it???
ReplyDeleteI still think export trade balancing is the only dollar positive phenomenon, leading to employment.
WFC off @ 28.69. I'm looking at MS/GS/JPM/BAC selling off all day. Part of the play was their strength this am. That's gone now.
ReplyDeleteGLD/SLV/GDX/GDXJ. Not healthy here. Throw in DANG for good measure and that's enough to make me nervous here.
ReplyDeleteIf SPY cant hold this level (132.87) the bulls are in trouble.
ReplyDeleteOut of my SLV puts and MIPS calls after they both spiked in my direction. Gonna go for a long run. I need it.
ReplyDeleteTrannies are red.
ReplyDeleteI just realized that there is another lateral move that I can do into ECU, and so I just sold my 100 shares of LINE at $39.01 (which I bought at $25 in January 2010, thus booking a long-term gain on them) and instead bought 5000 more shares of ECUXF at $0.97. ECU will do amazingly well if silver stays at the current prices (I'll post about that later), and so to hedge myself a little, I also bought 3 July $43 puts on SLV at $2.98.
ReplyDeleteThis might be it...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinese-Internet-Stocks-Fall-indie-3128378051.html?x=0&.v=1
MS- That is one ugly intra-day chart.
ReplyDeleteWATG seems to have put a bottom on the 6-month chart and started to move up. SORL should be next. I just bought 10 December $5 calls on SORL for $1.40 each. That should give plenty of time for SORL to get back at least to $8, in which case my calls will double. On the other hand, the chance that SORL is below $5 in December is pretty slim in my opinion, given the fact that it keeps increasing its net income every quarter and already has a forward P/E of 4.
ReplyDeleteHas silver separated from its fundamentals?
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by DavidV (77 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:00 #84287
Maybe it is just about to start doing it now. I just compared the 5-year charts for SLV and GLD, and since the beginning of existence for SLV and GLD ETFs, SLV has been underperforming GLD and caught up with it only when it reached $30 on December 31, 2010. Since silver is a much smaller market than gold, it should be way outperforming gold during a bull market (which it has done locally many times), and a reasonable 20% outperformance per year by SLV will compound to a 100% outperformance over the 5-year period, which places silver right about where it is now. A very modest 10% outperformance per year would place silver around $38. Of course, the locally overbought nature of silver makes it prone to a sharp correction, but once that correction is over, silver should return to its "fair" value in high 30-s or above.
Just for fun, I bought 3 July $43 puts on SLV today at $2.98. Let's see if I can make a few grands on them. :) More importantly, these puts might hedge 60% of my portfolio invested into ECU.TO.
"If SPY cant hold this level (132.87) the bulls are in trouble. "
ReplyDeleteMark > Not sure I agree that if the SPY goes to 132.7 (an up move of 14 S&P pts versus 16) would make it time to take risk off...perhaps the more troublesome thing is IYT being red...but again it's only 1 day. The market is clearly treading water, building up strength to move higher in my mind. Earnings are still too high for the market to go down much.
TOF- My comment was intra-day only. Looks like we are about to test that area again.
ReplyDeleteSPY intra-day. 3 lower highs but no lower lows. Let's see.
ReplyDeleteShould have kept an eye on PAL. Nice dbl bottom @ 5.50.
ReplyDeleteCP, actually, its a remake of French history. When they printed, things got better, so they printed more, and when things went sour, money wouldn't buy bread, and the Guillotine was invented to efficiently chop off the heads in the French Revolution that resulted. Gold was outlawed, but never lost its value.
ReplyDeleteIt was during this time that Voltaire declared that paper money always returned to its intrinsic value, ZERO, and Jefferson made his famous comment that "Paper is poverty. It is but the ghost of money, not money itself."
Too bad their warnings and history's precedent has been ignored...
The case for ECU.TO
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by DavidV (78 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:39 #84289
Now about ECU.TO, into which I have already invested 60% of my portfolio (40% of my position last summer at $0.6 and the rest over the past couple of months at around $1.05). ECU is greatly undervalued relatively to other junior production miners: check out the column MCpOzAgEq (market cap per oz of silver equivalent) at http://tinyurl.com/6du3knl and compare with other miners in the J-Prd category. One of the reason for their undervaluation, I think, is their low sales of gold & silver, *so far*. But they have opened 4 new mines in 2010 (they had a very low mining grade of gold and silver in Q4 2010 precisely because they were digging to get TO the veins, as opposed to extracting the high-grade ore from the veins, as investor rep explained to me yesterday) and have ordered new mining equipment for arriving in Q2 2010 (according to http://tinyurl.com/3s77prh), which will allow them to process 900-950 tpd of ore and fully utilize their existing two mills (their sulphide mill is currently only 50% utilized, as the investor rep told me yesterday). According to my calculations (contact me by e-mail, if interested to see them), they should have a revenue of around $12M/quarter starting 3Q2010, assuming gold/silver prices stay the same and their mined grade will match the one stated in their 43-101 (although ECU recently mentioned that their mined grade from the veins is consistently higher than the one in 43-101 and so they are planning to issue a new 43-101 with updated grade, with updated resource size based on all the exploration they carried out since 2008, based on the results from the massive high-grade sulphide deposit they are drilling now, and with a large portion of their inferred resources converted to M&I resources). For comparison, they earned $4.4M in 2Q2010, when they still weren't selling their gold/pyrite stockpile. For comparison, Fortuna Silver has a 6 times larger MCpOzAgEq and their average quarterly revenue in 2010 was $18M, not much larger than the $12M ECU is expected to make starting 3Q2010.
Another reason for such an undervaluation of ECU is that it does not have any economic feasibility studies for their large resource base (AgEq is twice larger than the one of Fortuna Silver according to http://tinyurl.com/6du3knl, and they are hoping to double it after drilling out the massive high-grade sulphide zone, which they are already doing now). Well, ECU has already commissioned an economic feasibility study for a new 1500 tpd sulphide mill, and an investor rep told me yesterday that they are expecting to have it ready during the summer. Such a mill, he said, will cost around $60M (including additional mine expansion), and according to my calculations, will produce around $18M of revenue per quarter (and hence it will pay itself off in one year!).
I seriously doubt that the market is pricing in any of these inevitable future developments. The mere fact that ECU closed at $1.34 on December 31, 2010 and is trading at $0.92 now shows that it got "off the radar" and another powerful thrust up is likely after the next piece of good news is released (either the results of the massive sulphide drilling or the economic feasibility study or 3Q revenue of $12M). So all together, looking out 1 year ahead, I think ECU has no downside at all and an upside of many times its current price.
Took a starter position in MITK @ 5.85. First time I have ever bought a stock that is not listed on a major U.S. exchange.
ReplyDeleteCB - Thanks for the recap, history does have a habit of repeating. The primary difference I see in situation these days is considerably more convoluted than ever before.
ReplyDeleteMy target for silver and gold for early July are $50/$1570.
PAL - Quite a move there...
ReplyDeleteMark > ok intraday...i'm just trying to censor you cuz you're not doing a very good job at it!
ReplyDeleteBC: "there is no reason in my mind why the US Dollar has to be so weak or why Gold and Silver prices are breaking to new high ground simultaneously."
ReplyDeleteGold punches through $1500, what's up with this guy, anyway? Looks like he's gonna get left behind. I guess he shorted today's peak then jumped back onboard to ride it back up then reshort, b/c he's such a hot shit...
Pz- Reopening OAKBX in the buy-and-hold at the close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5554 comments) on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:42 #84291
ReplyDeleteHere's my take:
(a) davefairtex came up with the 'ballot-stuffing' description that may/may not explain the discrepancy between sentiment survey results and our own intuitions. Personally, I still think a substantial percentage of the 'public' remains un-/under-invested. Looking forward to Mark Hulber's next update on newsletter timers.
(b) Monday's gap down felt like a hard tap that would have shaken out even a few diehard bulls- it was enough to keep me away from OAKBX at Monday's close.
(c) Still biased in the direction of large-cap value. OAKBX may not be the best choice, but it's the only choice I have in that category until Q3 (still locked out of 97% of fund offerings in retirement accounts 'excessive trading' violations).
(d) If the bull is destined to hit new highs, today's gap up is a signature move- designed to disallow easy entry/reentry.
(e) I could be completely wrong, of course. But I think the risk of being left behind outweighs the risk of another pullback right now.
Sorry to drag you into the mud Illini! :)
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one thinking apple is going to carple on earnings?
TOF :)
ReplyDeleteWOW that was a gap and bore type of trading day. I would much rather have an overall flat market with one sector gaining while others are losing. Can BEN provide enough liquidy for a broadbased move? I am still bullish just not for every tradeable item known to man. Everything can't go up. Can it? Hell even UNG went up. THere is obviously something wrong.
ReplyDeleteFCX - Recaptured the 50SMA, first things first, I suppose.
ReplyDelete"THere is obviously something wrong."
ReplyDeleteI point my finger at the U$D losing nearly 1%. That makes everything cheaper to foreign entities, not just one sector?
Dollar - That was a gap down too, probably gonna fill someday soon? So sell the PM peak, then rebuy once the dollar gap fills...?
ReplyDeleteJesse - yeah, silver is overextended...
ReplyDeletehttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Mark - Are you still carrying the ADES?
ReplyDeleteADES - Man, I hope I never get that again!!!
ReplyDeleteDouble gapper? Sure seems like it with the market. Skeptics abound, yet we go higher. It must be because of the declining dollar!
ReplyDeleteTold ya AAPl's earnings would suck. I had 9.73/share figured.
ReplyDeleteADES- Nope. Yikes, I know I made a couple hundred bucks on it, but can't remember why I sold it.
Any of you guys catch the Sharks game last night. Wild!
ReplyDeleteHave you guys seen a 15-year chart of silver?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?z=f&g=127682&dr=15y
It doesn't just look parabolic, it looks ASYMPTOTIC, as in silver hitting a wall on the x-axis and going up to infinity along that wall. No way to predict where that vertical climb ends, but I think $50 is a good target, at which point whoever is buying it should pause, the weak hands will start selling, and a natural avalanche of selling will then develop.