Friday, April 1, 2011
4/2/11 I Look At The Floor And I See It Needs Sweeping
"+.85% on the day and +22.44% for Q1. (According to Schwab)."
"Jeez...my individual accounts are up 67% YTD."
Reminds me of an encounter in the halls of middle school. Three guys crowd together while one demonstrates a mean looking switchblade. Another pulls out a long folding knife and play threatens. Third guy chuckles and reaches into his pocket and pulls out a tiny pocket knife and waves the air, 'Alright, come on. Let's do it!'
I'm the third guy.
Seriously, congrats for a killer quarter. Now I want you both to post those gains on CC- single sentence posts will do.
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CCME/CAAS/CMGC...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11060503/6/16-small-cap-stocks-in-danger-of-delisting.html
Careful David.
TOF- You first :).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11060503/6/16-small-cap-stocks-in-danger-of-delisting.html
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw that. They can say the same thing about WATG as well, since it also didn't file its 10-K form on time. Now CAAS and WATG have 60 days to submit a plan to NASDAQ for how they are going proceed with filing their 10-K. I think instead of such a plan, CAAS and WATG actually submit their new audited 10-K forms, maybe a month late, and everyone will shut up.
Mark > no way man. Aside from it stirring up some serious shit, its bad luck to be posting that. I mean what are the odds we get negative returns from here on out for the year? I say high to very high. I personally can't believe the returns I've made over the past 2 years...it's almost comical.
ReplyDeleteI think I need to put myself in serious lockdown mode and protect these profits. Or else 3 years from now I'll be looking back and crying about how I lost all of my gains from the great 2009-2011 bull market.
I'm waiting for the next fat pitch I think...as in panic, VIX-style. NLS sure looks like one but the market has gone on a tear since 1,250 and there most likely is gonna be a pullback or pause. Who knows though. Way back in 1907-1909 when the market halved then doubled (and hit old highs about 2 years after bottoming), every single dip was bought and then it went higher...for over 2 years. Sounds familiar.
Wimps.
ReplyDeleteyou know its funny man how quickly things change...2 weeks ago we were at 1,250 and i was thinking to myself, alright this is it...either we get an unbelievable buying opportunity here or we buy the "dip" in the face of an october 1987 style crash. i remember looking at the 1987 charts and thinking that there were decent odds we cascade lower. the only thing that has changed since aside from prices is oil has gone up from 97 to 108. we still have libya, we still have mid east unrest, we still have japan. but ultimately, those things didn't matter nearly as much as high oil/high input costs will matter. people freak out about the things that ultimately don't matter ("day of rage" comes to mind) but ignore the things that do (high oil prices).
ReplyDelete'I Watch From The Wings At The Play You Are Staging' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5446 comments) on Fri, 04/01/2011 - 20:01 #82910 (in reply to #82906)
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/324sdvc
johnny- Yes, a curiously hollow rally today. While Main Street gently weeps.
David - What makes you think CAAS/WATG actually intend on filing newly audited 10-K forms or are even capable of that accomplishment?
ReplyDeleteI couldn't understand why, as CADC kept selling off along with most of the Chinese group I realized it could no longer be ignored and so started looking for root causes instead of symptoms. Well, that's when I found the article on VIE structures, added two and two, and the light popped on.
The question I started with was "So how is it that even supposedly astute auditing firms are duped into placing their "reputations" on the line without even having done any diligence on behalf of themselves, let alone people who might accept their endorsements as an indicator of legitimacy?"
With the fraud allegations and a few rotten apples discovered in the bunch, and considering shareholders apparently are completely at the mercy of management's integrity and have questionable/no legal recourse otherwise, from this perspective it's hard to justify how these companies can even become listed in the first place.
Therefore, right or wrong, legitimate or not, I decided to listen to what the market was screaming before I awoke to potentially permanent losses.
http://www.chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/the-emperors-new-suit-vies-.html
TOF's the wimp. At least he has some sorta standing there. Me, not so much :).
ReplyDeleteI'm a junior mint...ahh...wimp.
ReplyDeleteI don't see it as starting ----. I see it as making an important statement- that being bullish in the face of bearish sentiment allowed you guys to make some serious money. I am truly awed by your gains.
ReplyDeleteI understand, though. Pride precedes a fall. I'd hate to have to post a -50% Q2 in 3 months ;)
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to the Japan crisis? The Libyan conflict? Two weeks ago we couldn't click on a financial site without getting splashed with headlines about one or the other.
ReplyDeleteNow we're getting splashed with headlines about a record Q1.
ReplyDeleteI had to take on, and still have, a lot of risk. I could easily give back 5% at the open on Mon. Not really very smart.
ReplyDeleteCP- I agree man. I just can't put my hard earned $'s on the line for those plays any more. I already took a $3k hit on WATG.
I'll stick to safer plays like CRYP :)
We have all weekend to think about RES. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteAnd micro cap independent wild caters like RB.
ReplyDeleteMaybe some cash burn bio plays.
Or tiny gizmo battery thingies....
Radioactive sushi.
ReplyDeleteAnd milk from Wash.
ReplyDeleteNuclear nigiri
ReplyDeleteSpongeBob sukiyaki
Salmonella salmon
:)
ReplyDeleteCRYP - Yeah, hey that's funny in this context! LOL! ;)
ReplyDeleteChina - I left out other parts of the decision making process as well, in order to simplify on the larger picture of root cause.
Anyway, while attempting to reflect on why all these Chinese companies were selling off, I got to thinking about currency valuations. In terms of if/when the yuan rises against the dollar for instance, I would anticipate Chinese equities should sell off b/c they are becoming expensive to purchase in terms of dollars, there will be fewer buyers. As the dollar falls against other currencies, US equities become less expensive in terms of those currencies and vice-versa of course.
Of course I'm a little upset with myself about not letting go of CADC while it was sporting a $5 handle, as it was.
So I seriously doubt I'll buy CADC in the future, purely due to the self-defeating structure.
Filling in for VB.
ReplyDelete280" of snow at Sugar Bowl mid.
CB- You have RBY/NKE/GMO right?
ReplyDeleteIm seriously debating pulling a 2nd and taking off a month...until I change my mmind monday
ReplyDeleteSee, your already stuttering...mmind. Let it go. It's just what we do.
ReplyDeleteHey- 'pulling a 2nd' is synonymous with changing your mind on Monday ;)
ReplyDelete"David - What makes you think CAAS/WATG actually intend on filing newly audited 10-K forms or are even capable of that accomplishment?"
ReplyDeleteCP -- that's what some investors are surely thinking, and I am just trying to fade the crowd sentiment here. I just cannot believe that more than 1% of US-listed Chinese companies could have fraudulent intentions, and hence the remaining 99% should put in all efforts to come clean in this mess. I just hope that WATG, CAAS and SORL are among those 99%. :)
You younger fellas are making this older guy weep in his red wine. I'm barely above even for the quarter. Money market woulda done just as well. Shouda limited a loss on commodities (RJA) and CSCO (still have hope of recovery). Woulda, shoulda, coulda! Am too risk averse. Oh well, its just my two children's inheritance and it is still there, for what it's worth.
ReplyDeleteMark - Yep, I've got GMO/RBY/NKE. GMO is all house money now, yet meaningful. NKE - I guess I'm a knife catcher at heart. RBY - My chosen gold play, I figure gold is undervalued to oil and copper, should be $1700+ by now. So either oil and copper come down or gold catches up, or both. I still see the yellow metal at $1570 by July 4th, and $40 moly this year.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see, meanwhile NKE needs to pay the light bill and there's a pile of cash on the sidelines ready for emergency deployment.
I would like to see a selloff in VRA...that company is like COH in my mind. I did the S-1 papers (IPO papers) on Coach and Blackrock right around 1999/2000 when I was an intern/staffer for two different big 5 accounting firms...i still regret not buying both of those.
ReplyDeleteBelt!! What a great name for a baseball player. Giants in the WC again :)
ReplyDeleteAnd a kid to boot.
And the Padres suck.
ReplyDeleteWhat, you guys aren't watching the Giants/Dodgers?
ReplyDeleteDid I say the Padres suck?
"Fraudulent Chinese companies have ensnared large sophisticated investors too. Carlyle Group, the world’s second largest private equity firm, had $105M of egg on their face after they bought the fictional China Forestry Group. Publicly traded Heckmann Corporation (HEK) run by Richard Heckmann, who successfully orchestrated the roll up and sale of companies worth a total of almost $10B, was also left holding the bag for the largely fictitious $625M China Water & Drinks. And this was after five months of due diligence by Heckmann, hired consultants, and others."
ReplyDeleteMark -- did you know this about HEK? If WATG, CAAS and SORL turn out to be fictitious as well, then at least I'll be in a good company. :)
I just checked out the chart of HEK and it seems to have made a lower high on a daily chart relative to March 25. A lower low will look very ominous now. So I just moved up my stop on HEK to $6.2 from $5.9, so as not to leave too much money on the table in case it starts going down.
I suppose fictional might be an appropriate word in certain cases, I was thinking more along the lines of the company CEO flipping shareholders the bird while on his way to the bank to make a sizable withdrawal. The following weeks and possibly months would entail no word, PR, or 10-K filings, just another company gone dark.
ReplyDeleteIt could happen and apparently has. Cold today, hot tamale, leaving shareholders standing in their skivvies with no ability to prosecute given the international and regulatory circumstances?
I just arrived in Hong Kong after a 24 hour train from Beijing. Deluxe sleeper car for $100. What a ride. My guess is this journey might cost $700 on Amtrak in the States.
ReplyDeleteCongrats on a great quarter Mark and TOF! I just calculated my ytd gains and am very happy with the results. I would post here but don't want to jinx myself going forward. I am very positive on the trading environment going forward. Trading vehicles have been "acting" very well of late and reminds me of the 2004-06 small cap golden years.
Having said that, much of my success this quarter is due to posting here. Translating my thoughts and visualizations into text give me the courage and conviction to hold onto positions that I otherwise might dump at the first sign of trouble. Learning from the great minds on this board has been such a blessing. I thank you all.
Anybody want to take a guess as to what GAZ's premium is to net asset value?? .5%? .75%??
ReplyDelete1.5%,??? 1.9%??????
The correct answer would be 14%. That's no typo. Wowsers! Never seen anything like it.
GAZ - That premium doesn't sound like much of a bargain from my armchair!
ReplyDeleteI think this week's action may have provided some important clues for going forward, judging from what I think I saw, it seems market wants to go higher but is hesitant due to current events.
The other theory I have is any good news will be sold, in a head fake move. Dip buyers need to work their magic again come Monday morning.
David- Yes, I knew. We talked about it here. The #'s in the article are wrong. HEK paid about $300M for it. It actually was a 'real' Co., just not worth nearly what the books claimed. HEK was able to recover about $200M of the cost and the Co. is now profitable with American management/accounting standards. They are the largest supplier of water to KO in China and have 3 new profitable lines on flavored bottled water there now. My guess is HEK will try and sell it at some point. Their focus is clearly in frac water treatment now. In a CC I listened to about 1 1/2 years ago, Dick was asked if he's ever invest in a China based Co. again and he answered, "Never."
ReplyDeleteI actually think HEK is fairly valued right here and there still is the issue of the warrants that are exercisable this Nov. ($7-$8).
David- I like the 6.20 stop area. I'd be interested in the 5.50 area, but probably wont get it. Dick implied there would be more acquisitions in this year. X+3B has been adding without any sales. He probably will get killed on the warrants though.
ReplyDeleteI've been using this site for about a month http://stocktwits.com/ and find it useful. I have all of the stocks I follow on it and have come across some stuff I wouldn't have found otherwise.
ReplyDeleteSPY RSI(7) is 70...
ReplyDeleteStockTwits? Momentum tech traders. HOW GAY! :)
ReplyDeleteNot that there's anything wrong with that...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GMZjkNW5b8
Sunday Sports Special...
ReplyDeleteMy nephew, Chase, was invited to tryout for Portland's MLS team, and his sister made the Varsity soccer team for her high school as a freshman.
Carry on.
Probably the funniest scene of a very funny show.
ReplyDeleteMark, Got those soccer genes in your blood. Maybe you should put an ad in all the euro papers.
"My seed will bring you premiere league progeny,"
Footballers Stud service. Hey I'm an idea guy.
Possible clients?
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.gunaxin.com/top-100-footballers-wives-and-girlfriends/16979
I tell ya what...Gold looks really good here, despite threats of QE2 ending and the economy improving. They've gapped it down 3 times in the past 2 or 3 weeks only to buy it right back up. That's bullish to me.
ReplyDeleteMorningstar has CSCO as severely undervalued now, amongst other tech stocks.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=374294
RB- Wrong side of the marriage. I guess I'll have to ask Patricia if I can be her pimp? Good margins right?
ReplyDeleteBut I like the way you think!
I mean, I know it's nothing, but the TED spread has been getting a little pep in its step lately.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
So, what's cookin' good lookin'?
ReplyDeleteGold/PM's - Two thumbs up on the fundamentals, which in my understanding are accounted for inevitably.
ReplyDeleteMy inclination at this point is to add, especially on a pullback. I need for equities to stand their ground though, as confirmation.
Here's what's cooking but not coking. CLD...a low cost producer of thermal coal. Read that coal for power plants rather that metallurgical coal which is coked and used for steel making. Read that coal for Japan, from Wyoming. Nukes are dead, according to the analyst:
ReplyDeletewww.morningstar.com/cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=374759
CP - If it wasn't for GLD as a hold and RBY as a trade I would be less than even for the quarter. I consider GLD as near cash.
ReplyDeleteCLD - 4/16 Max Pain is $20, FWIW. It's a trade I could imagine going for, thx for suggestion.
ReplyDeleteGLD - 4/16 Max Pain is $137
ReplyDeleteRBY - 4/16 Max Pain remains $5
ReplyDeleteNKE - 4/16 Max Pain is $80
Illini- Interesting link, thanks.
ReplyDeleteToo funny. Futes up a tad and crude down a tad when I leave for the store. Get back and futes down a tad, and sure enough, crude up a tad.
Not to jinx you guys, but I like RBY here also.
FTWR ????
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Question marks are very appropriate. I don't know what they do even after reading the biz description in FinViz. Guess I am like Warren on that one ..... don't understand technology. I do understand the chart, perhaps, in seeing that it is in a free fall.
ReplyDeleteCLD: when i was looking at the coal plays, BTU was the clear leader in my mind, with WLT a close second. CLD I believe from what I remember has locked up long term contracts on its production which is not a great thing in a period of rising prices
ReplyDeleteCLD/BTU... Morningstar rates BTU 3* & CLD 4*, out of 5* based on discount to what they calculate as fair value. No doubt BTU is a great company and a buy at a lower price. The question may be "Why is CLD under valued?".
ReplyDeleteChina's Minmetals bids $6.5B takeover for EQU.TO copper miner.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/04/us-equinox-minmetals-idUSTRE73231I20110404?feedType=RSS&feedName=innovationNews&rpc=43
Correction - EQN.TO
ReplyDeleteBTU - 4/16 Max Pain is $65
ReplyDeleteFTWR- Man, obviously I have no clue and something must be systemically wrong with their business model. Hell, they're 1/2 owned by Crown right now which reduced their debt by 50%. It's obviously priced for BK right now.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we should look at crude?
BTW- I love you guys. Thanks for all the input and support.
EQN-TO - $6.5B would be a nearly 30% increase over the present market cap...
ReplyDeleteAm signing off for the nite. Posted a couple anti-Kaimu remarks on CC. May draw wrath of that crowd. Don't know why I bother. It's just that sometimes they tick me off.
ReplyDeleteCLD is on my watch list too. Liking the setup in PCX slightly better. I thought CLD was a computer tech company. Coal, tech no matter to me.
ReplyDeleteYep, Kaimu does say some pretty silly stuff sometimes, like hyperinflation is coming. As if Ben had any problem with inflation becoming too great he couldn't make some bearish comment or collapse a Wall Street bank or two to make everything sell off inclusive of PM's. He could even probably pay off the entire US debt using such mechanisms. And when does Kaimu begin accounting for income from MBS's? Look at NLY, that's their bag and they pay a handsome dividend. The FED has essentially the same deal as NLY except they've got considerably better visibility on rate modulation, but perhaps no GSE principal and interest guarantees like NLY. Any defaults monetized could simply be used to keep deflation in check.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, remember when our Apocalypse arrived three years ago and silver was trading with a $9 handle? We shouldn't anticipate a repeat because ______________? (Fill in the blank)
Rinse and repeat I say, there'll be no hyperinflation. I don't think we want to go through 2008 again either, it seems Ben's actions brought us from the "brink" and could likely put us right back there if he so chose.
Okay, so this time I'd move quickly to dollars, try to sell PM's as quickly as possible, and wait for energy to bottom.
I'd give my eye teeth to have bought the 2008 bottom, and I'm still pissed those who knew better didn't advise accordingly at the time, no, instead they hemmed and hawed about moral hazard as if there is such a thing for at least 9 months before giving in and going long equities. Or that's what they led us to believe....
Looks to me like CCJ made a higher low on the daily chart. I am placing a buy stop limit order for 500 shares at $31.01/$31.10.
ReplyDeleteAONE - SPLAT!
ReplyDeleteAONE - Is this an inverse H&S pattern?
ReplyDeleteAnything looking interesting this am?
ReplyDeleteNatty getting killed on the BHI rig count me thinks.
ReplyDeleteBDCO- Kinda an interesting one that popped up on SOH.
ReplyDeleteWow...F out of the gate and running.
ReplyDeleteBidding RBY @ 5.15.
ReplyDeleteRES- Man, I Fed that one up.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll add to RBY @ 5.10.
ReplyDeleteAAPL + Oil = fugly.
ReplyDeleteStill in cash for the most part.
Bidding RBY @ 5.08.
ReplyDeletemore typos/errors than usual, single finger typist alert....EPIC, another tech takeout I missed
ReplyDeleteCLNE running on WPRT upgrade?
ReplyDeleteHey Bro, how you feeling?
GTC @ 1.00 on AONE.
ReplyDeleteIs AAPL telling us something?
ReplyDeleteTM - Approaching accumulation zone?
ReplyDeletehey - yeah, doing good. good visit with the grands, they are head up your way next.
ReplyDeleteany update on the soccer stuff.
QLIK, will probably get snagged, interesting tech, but they have already run up since IPO
AAPL - Inexplicable selling or Japan device vendor problems? Approaching lower trend line, expect a pop?
ReplyDeletePCX little engine that could chugging along.
ReplyDeleteLNG MPEL
ReplyDeleteThere goes GMO!
ReplyDeleteGMO - There was your $5.65, didn't hold though...
ReplyDeleteSeems like someone's betting on good news in advance.
My order didn't trigger WTF
ReplyDeleteRBY filled @ 5.08.
ReplyDeleteRB- When you say "LNG MEPL" what does that mean?
ReplyDeleteI guess I didn't change my GMO day order to GTC order. Why can't my broker know what I want?
ReplyDeleteGMO looks really good on a weekly chart...looks like it's gearing up for a big move.
ReplyDeleteJB- First real tourny is in 2 weeks. You guys are safe from pictures until then :)
ReplyDeleteRBY - I've got the SMA50 @$4.97 will it retest?
ReplyDeletesounds like a blast, fire up those pix after the event
ReplyDeleteDid take Hailey on a 20 mile bike ride this weekend. I beat her, of course, but I think the training wheels slow her down.
ReplyDeleteGMO - China gobbling up another jr. miner, this one was copper.
ReplyDeleteLots of false breakouts on GMO, enough to drive ya' mad! Anyway, it hates receding under $5.08, a trading range of $5.10~$5.52 is what I see assuming news doesn't shift the range or kill it altogether.
News could come any day, the public comment release of environmental impact study should be coming next.
GTY is making a move up today, continuing a trend that began 1 hour before the close Friday.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'm actually thinking about opening a position in GNMAs.
ReplyDeleteLMAO Bro! i'm aiming for a 20min walk
ReplyDeleteAVL - There's a breakout.
ReplyDeleteGTY - I love charts that look like that.
ReplyDeleteGNMA's?
ReplyDeleteAt the close boyz.
New Babe> Ginnie Mae? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5449 comments) on Mon, 04/04/2011 - 11:16 #83013
ReplyDeleteAnyone holding that thinks right now is a good entry point?
Its all about pulp. MERC breaksout right before my eye's and I just watch it helplessly thinking what the hell is pulp.
ReplyDeleteout Keg short 3% loss. Should of went with nog instead.):
ReplyDeleteGMO - Okay, it's gonna make a liar outta' me.
ReplyDeleteINTC - Argh! WTF, over!?!?
ReplyDeleteToo bad I ran out of money and cannot add to my ECU position without selling something else -- it is totally crazy for ECU to keep going down while silver keeps going up! ECU has uncovered in 2008 a very high grade mineralization zone deep in the ground (more than 1km below the surface) and the main concern about those deposits is whether or not it is economical to mine it. Well, as silver keeps going up, the chance that those deposits can be mined economically increases, and so ECU should be moving up! ECU leased a high-performance drill two weeks ago and re-started the exploration program for that high grade underground deposit, to find out conclusively just how much of silver & gold they have at those very high grades. Maybe everyone is waiting for these results before loading up on ECU? Is that what you guys are waiting for? :) Or are you waiting for the economic feasibility report to be released?
ReplyDeleteMy buy stop limit order for 500 shares of CCJ was triggered this morning at $31.02. I haven't decided yet on the level at which I should place a stop. Maybe $30.25?
ReplyDeleteGD - "•General Dynamics shares down after jet crash"
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely nothing to do with a quadruple topping pattern, of course.
Looks like a potential buy coming to me, assuming no change of the offensive approach to our military defense policies...
I decided to move up my stop on HEK to $6.30, just below the recent low on the daily chart.
ReplyDeleteFinally, I placed a sell limit order at $0.5 for 10 May RBY puts, so as to reload at $4.50 the 1K shares I sold last week at $5.20, or just pocked the $500 premium (that's a 10% return in 1.5 months!).
ReplyDeleteDavid - I don't trade *.TO stocks, my broker doesn't offer the capability.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure I should've bought some SLW though.
"a 10% return in 1.5 months!"
ReplyDeleteYou're always reaching for the stars! ;)
CADC - Seems like it's bottomed out here, don't it?
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like REDF made a definitive higher low on the daily chart, and today's spike up will inevitably result in a higher high. So I just bought 1000 more shares at $7.97 and placed a sell stop for all my 2K shares at $7.4/$7.3.
ReplyDeleteCP -- ECU.TO trades as ECUXF on US exchanges. Try placed a deep buy limit order for ECUXF in your account and see if it gets accepted and what fee your broker will ask for (some charge extra for stocks under $1).
ReplyDeleteOk, I decided to buy some RUTH...I was able to stay out of the market for a half of a day...woo hoo!
ReplyDeleteMSSR is in the same general industry as RUTH and it was just purchased for 15 times FCF and about 30 times CY earnings. RUTH is currently trading at about 6 times FCF and about 13 times CY earnings. I believe RUTH is a better run restaurant and just a better restaurant in general. I like the price here.
Re: New Babe> Ginnie Mae? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5450 comments) on Mon, 04/04/2011 - 13:20 #83018 (in reply to #83015)
ReplyDeleteDr. S- I think the next 30-90 days might be a reasonable holding period. The bet would be a significant pullback in equities, normally a backdrop for a rotation into bonds. That's the whole play.
From what I'm reading there is a decent chance that Ghadaffi agrees to a cease fire soon. I'm sure there are tons of rumors so its hard to tell if its real but if that happens the market should roar to new highs. Given this and the possible reaction being a drop down in oil I want to be in stocks that have been holding up well yet could be shooting higher if oil drops. Also, given the recent trends in jobs in the US, I want to also be long anything that benefits from an improving job market. So I'm long NLS + RUTH. I have about 25-30% of my money in each and am in cash with the rest in the hopes that if we do get the above scenario and oil sells off, I want cash to buy USO/UCO.
ReplyDelete"a decent chance that Ghadaffi agrees to a cease fire soon."
ReplyDeleteAn involuntary agreement would be acceptable.
David- I'm waiting for you to sell your car, ala RB, to buy more shares. THAT is when I jump in with both feet :)
ReplyDeleteala CB of course.
ReplyDeleteRe: New Babe> Ginnie Mae?
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Dr. Strangelove (1086 comments) on Mon, 04/04/2011 - 13:35 #83020 (in reply to #83018)
2nd ave -
With POMO and the Fed clarification on how it intends to extend QE before June and Congress uncapping budget limits in the next few weeks, I think equities go higher with a crash n burn by summer. Too early for the bonds. If the bearded one raises rates now, real estate will CRASH along with a rapid ramp up of GNMA defaults and a probable supreme court ruling against its mortgage recording fiasco. Property rights are the foundation to democracy.
Cheers.
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Re: New Babe> Ginnie Mae? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5451 comments) on Mon, 04/04/2011 - 13:43 #83021 (in reply to #83020)
You may be right. There's room for both scenarios within your outlook. For instance, a sharp drop into May, followed by a rally into June.
Tech and Semis. What is today? NVDA, NTAP, VMW, INTC all down quite a bit. Any news I missed or shake out the weak hand story....
ReplyDeleteDave - any news on ECU it is misbehaving on the up silver market...
ReplyDeleteI am buying ALGT today on weeakness, scaling in 200@43.05, will keep adding if the slide continues. Heard good long term projections...
ReplyDeleteWhy oh why and I looking at FTWR again...
ReplyDeleteFTWR - down another 7.8%... move along, nothing to see here.
ReplyDeleteFTWR Now you got me looking at it thanks alot.
ReplyDeleteDouble bottom. If can get above 2 I might make a small 1000 share trade? Thanks again
Just bought 200 more shares of CCJ at $30.82. Also, just noticed that my sell limit order for 10 May $5 RBY puts was executed.
ReplyDeleteJust sold at $5.72 my 1000 shares of GMO, wanting to move that money into ECUXF. But my ETrade screen is saying that I don't have enough funds to buy ECUXF -- maybe the previous sale has not been settled yet?
ReplyDeleteFTWR P/B is .36. Maybe they are going to take the thing BK? CCI owns about 25% of the Co. I think. They also have some of the bonds, not sure how much now.
ReplyDeleteQID, long at 51.65 FWIW
ReplyDeletetight stop
Remember, FTWR did a 10-1 reverse split. So it's really trading at .19/share. Damn. Market cap now under $100M.
ReplyDeleteSOLD PXP AND WY.
ReplyDeleteI figured out what happened: ECUXF is not marginable, so a sale of 1K shares of GMO did not increase my buying power enough (as I was already in the margin in my ETrade account) to buy ECUXF. So I just bought back 1K shares of GMO at $5.69.
ReplyDeleteWill feel most comfortable if NDX CLOSES at 2337.18 or below will add to any breaks below today's low, QID
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Could be a buyout coming? I'm not really convinced they actually have anything to unique to offer that can't be duplicated or replaced by the likes of big telecom. I just don't know enough about the industry to recognize mispriced value so I'll let price action speak for itself...
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is the matter with me? I just read FTWR's CC. Don't jump in today boys. I'll give you the high (low) lights over a beer at the bar.
ReplyDeleteT3D/RB- Thanks for the heads up.
Man, I'm itching to grab the $1K profit in GMO.
ReplyDeleteBought back GMO just in time for it to move to a new high of the day. :)
ReplyDeleteInstead of GMO, I just sold at $4.02 the 1K shares of SOKF that I purchased at $4.01 last week. Even though SOKF has great fundamentals, there is no reason for it to shoot higher right now, while ECU has all reasons to shoot up. I also sold 600 shares of SRV at $10.78 that I had in my account for a couple of years and was collecting nice dividends on. But at this point, the potential 1-year change in ECU is much larger than the 8% dividend I can collect from SRV.
These sales happened in my Scottrade account, and Scottrade charges 0.5% extra fee for trading stocks under $1. So I asked for a check to be mailed to my home (they don't even have ACH transfers enabled!), and once I get that check, I'll make an ACH transfer to Fidelity and will buy more ECUXF with $8 commission. So I hope ECUXF goes down even more over the next few days!
BBY? Does that thing EVER go up?
ReplyDeleteCOOL/HEAT - Flying off the shelf, we like our climate control!
ReplyDeleteMy Chinese stocks (CAAS, WATG, SORL) keep getting pounded today...
ReplyDeleteGMO...I hold. Buy imbalance for X and the financials.
ReplyDeleteRB- Traitor!!
RB- BTW. Thanks for the instructional soccer link the other day. Please feel free to email such important info anytime.
ReplyDeleteWonder what's up with LEXVF? Maybe I'll finally be able to get out of that one.
ReplyDeleteECUXF - Bid message from the most genious brokerage there ever was on the face of planet Earth(BACML):
ReplyDelete"You are currently not enrolled in our SafePass® service. SafePass is required when placing buy orders for Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board, Pink Sheet and other high-risk securities. If you wish to buy these types of securities, please enroll now."
I can only they're saving me from myself, they're so good at that with all theie lack of features like no ability to place stop limit orders, only buy stop or sell stop orders that execute as a market order.
It matters not really, ultimately the strength of my positions will overcome the lack of features. I do think I could enjoy additional gains if there were some decent features though.
Why anyone would want to own shares of a bank that treats their customers this way is beyond me...
TXN, did not need that announcement, NDX jumped on the news
ReplyDeleteGMO - Even TC had a nice move today, testing it's 50SMA from below. PKX, one of GMO's largest investors, has been kickin' butt too.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's worth-while to look at the global moly miners again and see if they gaped up/rallied last night...
NSM - Gosh, no another company that's grossly undervalued by the market, what a cryin' shame!
ReplyDeleteMark didn't mean to bail,Just think the Macro picture for oil is butting up aginst resis at 110. Needs a break before its move to 150 and beyond. Didn't follow BEXP today. Is it still chugging along? Just a heads up on what kind of moran you are dealing with. I was fixing to short silver last thursday, So a $40 PXP should be priced in.
ReplyDeleteMoron not Moran.
ReplyDeleteLooks like CSCO is forming a double bottom at $17. So I just placed a sell limit order for 10 May $17 puts on CSCO for $0.65.
ReplyDeleteMoved the Buy-and-Hold into FGMNX @ the close
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5452 comments) on Mon, 04/04/2011 - 17:00 #83045
westcoaster- I noticed the same headlines about 30 minutes ago. So I may have deserted the technology sector (last Friday's open) to my detriment. All the large-cap companies are at decent valuations, and the TXN announcement gives that sentiment an eye-opening dollar figure with regard to NSM.
I decided to follow Igor into ALGT and just placed a buy limit order for 2 July $40 calls on ALGT at $5 each.
ReplyDeleteSMH - Good God, looks like someone did their best trying to convince us the world is nearing an end again.
ReplyDeleteThe end of the world is such a fascinating fairy tale but seriously, I'm ready to move on to something a bit more productive...
Who the hell here was in charge of NSM here! I want a Fing name!!
ReplyDeleteJust posted long comment about natty but received error message :( I've been in the air for 18 hours or so and in no mood to re-post the whole thing. So I'll summarize. Natty bounced precisely off 20 day at 4.20 Thurs and 4.23 today. 20 day moving up through 50 day tomorrow for UNG. I loved it at 10.91, so I gotta love it after an orderly 6 session 7% pullback. 3 month well defined cup and handle as well. Very obvious 10 session head and shoulders pattern for natty. Per our H+S conversation last week, I think its a setup.
ReplyDeletePicked up UNG after hours to finally get my full position back. Will probably put a stop in around 10.95.
One more- 200 day for natty is 4.21 and there's nice support at the bull thrust close mid March at 4.20. Off to bed....
"Who the hell here was in charge of NSM here! I want a Fing name!!"
ReplyDeleteIt starts with TEAM!
hey! since when did i get roped into this? some of you guys were too busy with the snoozefest called INTC...what's the matter you didn't foresee a 75% buyout premium in a stock that has gone sideways for 15 years?
ReplyDeleteTrue team, our leader and DJ has been the Big cap tech guy. Its 2nd's fault.
ReplyDeleteGood point TOF. At first I thought is was you also. Figured you were worried about your seating at Donovan's tonight.
ReplyDeleteSo it's 2nd. Figures. This whole month off BS.
This blog is falling apart at the seams guys. Maybe I should get on the horn and beg BC to come back?
Kristi Noem (R) South Dakota. Now there's a republican I can get behind.
ReplyDelete