Wednesday, April 6, 2011
4/7/11 Playing Chicken With CSCO
Chambers needs to find the right bass line/player to light up the product line. I recall the days when politicians would make appearances outside Cisco headquarters in San Jose and say things like 'I have simple advice for anyone who wants to grow his portfolio and retire early: buy Cisco and hold!' to loud applause. Life is full of second acts- I'm willing to bet on this CEO.
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I pulled a 2nd and plowed back into CSCO/INTC. Trading holiday lasted exactly 2 days.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - 4/19 Max Pain is $18
ReplyDeleteThe real challenge will be whether I can hold for serious gains.
ReplyDeleteINTC - 4/16 Max Pain is $21
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Correction, that was 4/16 MP, not 4/19 as posted...
Damn- at first glance I thought you'd corrected MP for CSCO to $21.
ReplyDelete"The real challenge will be whether I can hold for serious gains. "
ReplyDelete2nd - I'll believe it when i see it.
Here is a cool link for you trading junkies:
http://www.traders-library.com/
Wow, nice site TOF.
ReplyDeleteRule 14: Control risk before seeking reward.
Wear your market chastity belt at all times. Attention to profit is a sign of immaturity,
while attention to loss is a sign of experience. The markets have no intention of
offering money to those who do not earn it.
From 20 Rules for the master swing trader.
Also Mark, thanks for the http://www.futurespros.com/
link I use it all the time.
AAII Sentiment Survey> Bulls 43.6%/ Bears 28.8% newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5464 comments) on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 06:16 #83306
ReplyDeleteNot as bad as I'd feared. We have plenty of room for more bulls before hitting extremes.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Bullish 43.6%
up 1.8
Neutral 27.6%
up 0.4
Bearish 28.8%
down 2.2
Change from last week:
Bullish: +1.8
Neutral: +0.4
Bearish: -2.2
Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%
Natty futures are down again this morning. (-.84%)
ReplyDeleteMark- When you come out of your coma, let us know what you're trading today.
ReplyDeleteAEM OUT 66.79, MOST LIKELY TOO SOON
ReplyDeleteHey Guys. Had a really late meeting last night.
ReplyDeleteTOF- BEXP clipped me for 4.5% yesterday.
David- No, I wimped out on ECUXF. I still have 10,000 shares of LEXVF that I've tried to get out of many times only to have the price trade through my ask. I'm not sure what's going on. I want to dump that POS before I wade back into OTC land.
2nd- Nothing. I'm beat. Only have BEXP/PXP/LEXVF which is about 65% of my port.
The wicker rocket strikes again.
ReplyDeleteUNG. Yesterday I saw the Platt survey and I think the ave. was a 30bcf draw. I'm going out on a limb and say a 15bcf injection.
ReplyDeleteAdding to CSCO @ 18 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5467 comments) on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 10:07 #83332
ReplyDeleteI could say it's a LT trade, but my last LT position was in 2006. I really think CSCO has the potential to hit the thirties, but I'll likely be trading around the position all the way up.
PIR? That one really is a rocket around earnings.
ReplyDeleteDell is opening the wallet, again, curious to see what kind of roi these investments in cloud/saas bring. I'm still staying away from them and HPQ... probably too close the situation to make a sound trading judgement
ReplyDelete2nd- They also said they are opening 80 new stores and close 30 older ones. Maybe the economy is much better if people are buying that crap.
ReplyDeleteYou feeling better bro?
ReplyDeleteAdded some more SPY puts...this time SPY $139 May puts at $5.8 average. Not buying this pop...breadth has been pretty weak and I still think this high oil price has to weigh down the indices at some point. Still about 40% cash and long NLS + RUTH.
ReplyDeletehey Mark - yeah some, for some reason this one really kicked my butt, thx for asking!!
ReplyDeleteUNG- Bang! You're dead. Although I got the number wrong. Guess it doesn't matter :)
ReplyDeleteI would have thought MMR would be stronger on the HERO upgrade.
ReplyDeleteDamn, look at the sell off in XLE.
ReplyDeleteI'm calling it a shake out on the natty report...fingers crossed and eyes closed.
ReplyDeleteGuess not. Everything is going bat shit. What's up?
ReplyDeleteAh... A big quake in Japan. 7.4.
ReplyDeleteYep...this is what I thought would happen. I sold all of my RUTH + NLS into the teeth of this selloff...Now only holding SPY puts which are nicely in the money. The market breadth was telling the tale. It was very weak relative to the market action yesterday and this morning.
ReplyDeleteMy screen is all red now, started off nicely green...
ReplyDeleteMr Market: "I'm not happy until you're not happy"
ReplyDeletenice bounce back so far. was this a news related drop?
ReplyDeleteoh earthquake....nothing to see here...move on.
ReplyDeleteLiking the sell-off
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5468 comments) on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 10:49 #83341
Let's work off some of the bullish sentiment.
Had to go take a shower. Back to nicely green.
ReplyDeleteI agree 2nd. Look how fast money came in on the dip.
GL players....and players we are right now.
i'm gonna give it more than 30 minutes...but you're right...it does look bullish
ReplyDelete6' Tsunami warning, quake off Sendai coast.
ReplyDeleteWasn't part of the northern Honshu(main island) coastline lowered 3' by the magnitude 9.2 quake? Wonder what would've happened if the Fukushima power plant had wound up 100' under water instead of just damaged?
TLT newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5469 comments) on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 11:40 #83352
ReplyDeletejack- Do you recall the effect of the last tsunami on bond prices?
Closed out of my SPY puts for a nice gain...
ReplyDeleteWatching coal names...thinking of shorting WLT and putting a buy order in for BTU at the 50 DMA.
Playing the bounce in BTU...long at $67.94
ReplyDeleteAdding BTU at $68.14
ReplyDeleteAll in on BTU $68.35...will sell some before close today
ReplyDeleteLYB, what a chart, hedge puppy
ReplyDeletet3d
As I expected, I did get stopped out of REDF and CCJ. I had a stop on REDF at $7.60 and the lowest point during today's spike down was $7.59, so don't tell me that they had any other intent for that spike but to take out my stop.
ReplyDeleteWell, since REDF bounced after taking out my stop, I take it as a bullish action, and so I just bought back 1K shares at $7.83. Also, just bought 200 more shares of DANG at $20.40.
Also, I like TOF's play on BTU -- its daily chart shows that all of the sharp sell-offs it had in the past 6 months were bought. Besides, with people weary of nuclear energy now, BTU should have a firm demand going forward...
ReplyDeleteSo I just picked up 200 shares at $68.30
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy stop limit order for 200 more shares of BTU at $68.50/$68.55, just above the recent high, so as to catch it on the way up.
ReplyDeleteDavid - That's EXACTLY why I bought BTU. Oversold very short term + long term demand as evidenced by the bounces back + nuclear off the table in a lot of countries. Coal is probably the best "alternative" energy play.
ReplyDeleteDavid - one other thing I have noticed on BTU: look at the RSI7...the last two times it hit 30 the stock bounced very hard. In fact it bounced 10%+ both times in about 5 days. I wouldn't be surprised to see $74 again next week.
ReplyDeleteTook off the desperation panic sale RBY positions from my kids accounts and the wife's, and sold enough to get back to positive cash in main trading accounts, all sales and positions left well back into green.
ReplyDeleteExpect news next week (not for sure), but as with all news, I don't know how the market will react, so I took profits and reduced risk and cashed up in case a sell off occurs.
Bought 300 more shares of DANG (For a 1500 total) at $20.42 and added all new shares into my sell stop at $19.95/$19.90. Since I am close to my stop, I can increase my position size and my total loss, if stopped out, will still be small.
ReplyDeleteslow day
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN9-0GFcn8Q
in case your wondering, probably not, i like RAM
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC0aiPLNiLM&feature=related
t3d
last one
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P_HKQGq730&feature=related
This is a mean market to play -- BTU surged to $68.50 just to hit my but stop, and then it collapsed. Since the 200 shares I bought at $68.50 were "momentum" ones, I decided to place a sell stop for them at $67.98/$67.95.
ReplyDeleteLooks like REDF just made a higher low on the daily chart, so I just bought 1000 more shares at $7.90.
ReplyDeleteBTU, that's the algos coming for you. I try to turn that to my advantage at times. Sya you have 1000 shares of MHS bought 55.47, have an offer in to sell at 56.23 as the algos work towards that direction canx the sell at 56.23 and take the bid at 56.06. Works frequently for me, but you need to be at your screen generally.
ReplyDeleteDon't get mad get even. F the Basterds
BTW, imo, placing hard stops on your holdings today is totally wrong as the algos will pick you off 90% of the time.
ReplyDeleteNew world, its mental stops with discipline or take the algo punishment.
But I have always preferred mental stops so my bias is showing.
ReplyDeleteSo since X3B has 60 mill in WPRT, what's his thoughts/thesis for its outlook Mark?
TIA
T3D- It's a buddy of his, but he really likes it LT. Remember, these guys are Looong term players.
ReplyDeleteBTW- I agree about hard stops. It's cost me a few times as I can't always be here, but in the long run I'd be much worse off. Besides, some of the stuff I trade can open crazy, and then the stops become MO's.
ReplyDeleteKeeping a really close eye on MGIC. I really want back in on this one.
ReplyDeleteMGIC, yeah wonder if Jesse's LMLP, which has been testing 200dma (3x's last 6 days) can bounce the MGIC did.
ReplyDeleteLong term can be good and WPRT is a great opp in that regard, but I have short term disease, but try to do the other on occasion and WPRT fits.
Yeah, me too...at least for now.
ReplyDeleteGMO- I'll be generous and call a bull flag here. Can't really do anything about it till tomorrow though.
LMLP synopsis:
ReplyDeleteLML Payment Systems Inc. provides electronic payment, risk management, and authentication services primarily to businesses and organizations using the Internet to receive or send payments in Canada and the United States. The company's transaction payment processing business line provides electronic payment and risk management solutions for brick and mortar retailers, and mail-order and telephone-order call-centers; solutions that enable e-merchants to accept credit card and debit card payments, electronic funds transfers (EFT), and ACH payments; and hosted solutions, including a connection between the merchant's Website and the company's host system that provides the merchant with a shopping cart with secure payment processing for credit cards and debit cards, EFT and ACH payments, a secure order management interface, multiple shipping options, and reporting and reconciliation tools. It also offers authentication tools for merchants to reduce the risk inherent in card-not-present credit card transactions; other authentication services that provide with information ranging from the validation of credit card orders to the fraud screening of applications by consumers; and various risk management tools.
How is this very different from paypal?
MGIC - Where does the H&S pattern complete, here?
ReplyDeleteWhy no pop in oil companies with oil over 110? I have lost any feeling for this tape. i think a sell off would be healthy.
ReplyDeleteCP- That's how I read it.
ReplyDeleteGuess what? BTU now went down just to hit my stop at $67.98 and then immediately turned up. Screw them -- I just bought back those 200 shares at $68.02.
ReplyDeleteRB- I think it's just weak hands reducing risk. Fing babies...Oh, yeah, sorry man.
ReplyDeleteOnly to see BTU go down for real now. F*ck...
ReplyDeleteToo funny. Take a look at the last few minutes of MGIC. Who the hell is front running us!!
ReplyDeleteNo, not really -- it looks like there were a few more stops between $67.90 and $68, and they were just taking out all of them. BTU is above $68 again...
ReplyDeleteWhy's CHK so snappy today?
ReplyDelete$110 oil sucks, seems like bears have resorted to buying oil in a last desperate attempt to squash the 666 rally?
ReplyDeleteAs we have learned well, they'll stop at nothing!
Just to test my theory, I am placing a sell stop at $67.90 for the 200 shares once again -- let's see whether that results in another spike down...
ReplyDeleteDavid- That's too fing tight man.
ReplyDeleteAAPL...WTF? Does that thing ever go up? :)
ReplyDeleteMan, I wish it was Friday.
ReplyDeletecooked goose LOL
ReplyDeletethat's Jesse running MGIC
t3d
It is Friday, just take tomorrow off, life's too short.
ReplyDeletelater
Where was this news release 10 years ago and why do I strongly doubt this is anything more than taxpayer-funded lip service?:
ReplyDelete"GE to build nation's largest solar power plant"
I think we should make another run @ HEK if we can get it for 6.
ReplyDelete"Does that thing ever go up?"
ReplyDeleteSure it does, right after it's finished going down. ;)
Later Bro.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - MP calculator says $335
ReplyDeletePull that fing top David. They're coming!
ReplyDeleteDavid - Obviously it's you against the computers! ;)
ReplyDelete"David - Obviously it's you against the computers! ;)"
ReplyDeleteThis time around they are being lazy -- BTU is stuck at $68 and my stop is still there. They probably decided to take it out tomorrow morning before spiking BTU up for real...
David - You of course realize MP calculator has a 4/16 target of $65, the computers are probably pumping BTU up and down in order to work off as much enthusiasm as possible before time runs out.
ReplyDeleteBEXP/PXP off. Got a little back today, but overall, I agree with 2nd's/TOF's value play. I think yesterday was a clear warning for me to take great profits and look to deploy my capital in another area for now.
ReplyDeleteBEXP +12.48%
PXP + 2.87%
So, back to cash except of course, LEXVF, which by the looks of things I'll own it forever.
ReplyDeleteLng BEXP
ReplyDeleteShort 500 SLW @ 45.47.
ReplyDeleteWTF MARK! CHICKEN! LOL Boy I am out of tune.
ReplyDeleteThe BernackHawk helicopter was spotted taking off from the QE fueling station in D.C. earlier today. Any one make a citing or find any of the green stuff littered around? Wonder when the mop up crew comes around to clean up the mess.
ReplyDeleteMark- It's going to be headwinds for AAPL and tailwinds for CSCO/INTC until the rebalancing occurs.
ReplyDeleteResetting the Buy-and-Hold> Closing FGMNX, Opening OAKBX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5471 comments) on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 15:46 #83385
ReplyDeleteActing on my take.
RB- Sorry man. Just being careful. BEXP was probably too big a position for me to mess around with. I'm probably wrong. I always sell too early.
ReplyDeleteRe: Resetting the Buy-and-Hold> Closing FGMNX, Opening OAKBX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5472 comments) on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 15:51 #83386 (in reply to #83385)
ReplyDeleteIn other words, I think we got our 'pullback' this morning. JMO, of course- one which seems to change almost daily.
2000 CSCO @ 17.88.
ReplyDeleteCSCO/WSJ: "CEO Says Cisco to Pare Projects". Man, he sounds depressed.
ReplyDeletewell that was annoying...i sold my BTU at $68 right before the close.
ReplyDeleteGOOG very bullish today...
ReplyDeleteAEM 65.54, Is it time for this one to bite me?
ReplyDeleteMHS 55.70
had a bid in all day for MHS at 55.47 close enough
generally still think mkt is tired, scalp mode or hedge of with SDS
http://www.isurfwebster.com/news/local-news/6994-senator-paul-and-mitch-mcconnell-take-a-loss-in-war-on-coal.html
ReplyDeletethis is probably why BTU was weak all day and has been weak for a few days.
Well, the computers did engineer a dip in BTU to take out my stop at $67.90 and then ramped it back up above $68 for the close. Unbelievable. I thought that my position sizes were so small that no one was interested in them...
ReplyDeleteNot sure it's the right move but I decided to buy back about 1/3 of my position in BTU after hours at around $67.8ish average...
ReplyDeleteI also decided to buy 100 shs of GOOG at $579.99 after hours.
So that was you, TOF, who was jumping in front of my after-hours ordre for BTU! It all started with a huge bid/ask spread: $67.68/$67.89. So I placed an order to buy back the 200 shares at $67.75, then someone jumped in front of me at $67.76, then I raised mine to $67.77, then I looked back and saw bid all the way to $67.88! So I just went ahead and bought my 200 shares at the ask of $67.89, and the bid-ask immediately moved up to $67.99/$68.10. Such a thin trading after hours. So I have a total of 400 shares now, and I decided to place a sell stop limit at $66.99/$66.95.
ReplyDeleteTOF: do you have a stop for your BTU?
David - My stop is $65.8. That's just below the prior resistance point of around $66.1 which would keep it out of the way of stops.
ReplyDeleteTOF, what fraction of your port is in BTU now?
ReplyDelete33% David. I'm considering adding more just for a week or so trade. I want to own this right up until earnings and then buy it on any dip in earnings. Ultimately this stock will be in the triple digits by 2012.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteHERO under SEC/DOJ investigation. Seems like issue over international waters production.
ReplyDelete