nice trade 2nd. mark - i only bought the 13" macbook pro. i upgraded the memory though and added the service contract and the office suite. freaking $2,300 for that shit. what a joke.
i'm going to buy a 24" or 27" samsung monitor and hook that up. the apple monitor is nice and all but $1,000 for that? gimme a break.
Picked up April AAPL puts. Will add more if it trades 547-548 range. At some point later this month, people will realize that Jobs is dead and Ipad 3 sales disappoint.
After using an Ipad and after my Dad returned his after 1 week, I cannot imagine that there will be huge demand to upgrade to version 3.
I read that Robert Rodriguez article someone posted here. I actually like the guy but I have to say that whenever I see those debt to GDP charts and how we're at higher peaks than in 1932 the same thought comes to mind:
according to the chart it peaked in 1932 and went down for like 20 years or something. supposedly that reduction in debt would have a big negative impact on the equity markets and so the fear is that we are going to have to embark on a period of deleveraging. however, the equity markets ripped way way higher from 1932 to the point where debt to gdp bottomed 15 or 20 years later. i'm sure i'm wrong on this thinking but that's the first thought that comes to mind
Wasn't it higher during WWII? That couldn't have been fun. Being the reserve currency compared to everything else was responsible for solving a lot of that, plus we were untouched and sold all our manufactured goods to everyone else (remember when made in the USA was good?).
Now we have a higher % of debt to GDP and no manufacturing/marketing advantage. We have to deal with that debt somehow, probably devaluation because no one near DC has a spine.
CC- I posted the same link yesterday. That article is now all over the web. My contrarian nature says since so many people are now focused on that 17.50 UNG buy level, the ultimate low is nowhere near that level. My thought is it either happens from around the current level or quite a bit lower than 17.50 to stop out all of the bottom pickers.
The only way a monster rally is going to happen is if EVERYONE is on the sidelines.
Jesse - I agree - see my post below. I think it does indeed rally from here in the short term to get the bottom pickers confident. And it lasts for at least several weeks. But then it drips lower and even the bottom pickers say "eff it this ETF is broken for sure" and then its time to buy
And my thoughts are that a possible natty rally will NOT bring the producers with it (in the short term). I see everyone scared of UNG etc., so they are all positioned in the producers to benefit from a rally.
Again, my contrarian nature sees everyone parked in CHK etc. crying in anguish as natty skyrockets while coals, natty producers are at the mercy of the general market. I think many of the producers are already pricing in a natty rally.
On natty - I think it would be wise to pay attention to the chart pattern of the 2008/2009 market drop (in S&P) as a correlation to nat gas: buying here will most certainly give you a gain a year out, but that doesn't mean it won't drip lower over the next few months.
The S&P made a new low a month after the panic low in October 2008. RSIs were higher so it appeared to be a negative divergence. The market then rallied for like 1.5 months. But it ultimately dripped even lower and RSI doubled bottomed a couple of months later. If this happens in natty I would look to buy a double bottom in RSI with an RSI(14) of around 15.
Laz often says "the greatest decline in a bear market is at the end"...I'd suggest that in Natty's multi year bear market the end is very near...within the next few months.
It is possible - a straight up market is rare, but it does seem to like to move in straight lines these days the market certainly does not seem so exuberant that a correction is necessary.
Oh my....I've been asleep at the wheel. I totally missed Nasdaq hitting 3,000 yesterday. The trifecta hit- Dow 13,000, Nasdaq 3,000 and AAPL .5 trillion.
I think the action in gold/silver is very encouraging after yesterday's sell-off. In fact, it confirms my feeling of yesterday being just a one-day wonder. So I just bought 10 contracts of April $34 calls on SLV at $1.80.
I am pretty much out of my buying power (yesterday's drop in AUMN really reduced my margin buying power), and so I'll try not to buy anything else for a while until I sell something.
It was noise. If I had freaked out yesterday I would have lost a lot of money. As it is I closed the day a lot higher and today is better. Bernank was just jawboning. As big Dave says, "ignore the news".
Coal - I turned my electric heat back on, and Port helped out by cranking up his air conditioner. It's an old trick to get prices moving, we ran the calculations and figured out that solar cells only generate enough power to run a few LED bulbs...
Okay, so now I'm back to full position in SVM at $7.40 again...
UNG and natural gas forwards record volume. Capitulatory emotional ending to biggest natty bear market in history. False breakdown in the making. Mark my words, natty will be well above 10 sometime in the next 12-18 months. The biggest natty spikes always happen after the biggest declines.
Rig counts will be near record low and permits are non-existent. This combo in the past has lead to record surges. We need lots of puking first.
I will be watching GAZ set-up going forward for buy signal. Seems to be controlled by big $. Always seems to have a blow-off before natty declines and shows good entry set-ups before natty.
Still WAY WAY above its NAV. Net Asset value is about 2.60. Its at 4.50!
This kind of shows the level of bullishness in the complex.
CP, I'm sorry to say it, but AUMN is not going to hit $7 before it hits $10. It will probably NEVER hit $7 again. Why not buy a little AUMN right now and then place buy limit orders at $8, $7.50, $7 and see how many of them get hit?
Now that would be something. I can list a few clear bullish developments for Nat Gas: (1) higher oil prices make it too compelling (2) abundant supply makes it in the US's interest to use it (3) feed in tariffs on solar and subsidies in ethanol going away makes nat gas the clear cheap alternative
SLV just rose above yesterday's first reflexive rebound following the sell-off. Given the fact that that rebound marked the highest post sell-off point yesterday, SLV should not have risen above it if the sell-off was meant to continue. However, it just did, which suggests that yesterday's sell-off is not meant to continue...
Indices have same chart pattern as leading up to flash crash in '10. No pullbacks below 20 day to provide support should market start faltering. Given the chart pattern at the time, I was positioned to make 800% off the flash crash, but I capitulated 8 days beforehand and lost a small fortune :(
Unknown CSFB fear indicator continues to flash a possible black swan type event on the horizon.
Bought some way out of the money GLD APR $150 lottery Puts for $.47. I think if Gold breaks in the next couple days, we could see a second big swoosh. These are down by 50% today, so even a minor break could get these moving pretty quickly.
This is the most important chart I've been using for a long-term turn for natty.
Check out the 12 year well-defined downward channel in ROC. When, not if, that is broken to the upside, we will see the biggest natural gas rally in history.
Best way to play Nat Gas I think is to pick some good stocks with solid balance sheets (so you have time) and average in. Really hard to pick the exact bottom on something like this, so if you just keep lowering your average cost, when it does pop, you will do well. My worry is that if I wait till it bottoms, it'll already be up 25% before I know that and get in.
I'm enjoying watching your guys posts from solitary confinement. Two things I'm formulating ideas on:
1.) GRVY chart could be very similar to the REDF chart from 2010/11. I'd like to see it rest above the 50DMA as a buy point. Perhaps around $2 as the 50DMA edges up? Volume is quite low on the pullback which is a healthy sign. I still can't get over that they are profitable and have $2+ in cash and no debt. That's no joke.
2.) UNG - I am hoping my theory on the similarity between this and the overall market in 2008/9 holds. Which means dip buyers here on this "false" breakdown get rewarded over the next couple of months. Then theres a spike lower to UNG 18 next week and then a rally to $23. Dip buyers are feeling confident...then the final leg lower begins and washes out around UNG $15. People come on CNBC and say that nat gas will forever be in a bear market because the supply is unlimited and there's no reason to buy. Then it's a great long term buy.
The other thing I was looking at is just how long rallies after negative periods in the midst of bull markets can go on for. I've seen lots of 40% moves over the past 80 years worth of charts to suggest that we could see Nasdaq 3,300+ before a meaningful pullback. We're "only" up 28% since the lows in the Nasdaq.
However, in a lot of those cases after a 40% rally there were pretty substantial givebacks. So my point is I wouldn't be surprised to see another 10% higher before a pullback of substance.
Oh and last thing: usually the 1st pullback in a run like this to the 50DMA is a big short term buy. As in maybe even buy deep in the money calls on SPY/QQQ
Good summary on why I think AHT is good here from Cantor Fitzgerald:
Cantor Fitzgerald initiates its coverage on Ashford Hospitality Trust (NYSE: AHT) with a Buy rating and a price target of $10 to reflect the company's maximum leverage to the lodging recovery. Cantor Fitzgerald notes, "In our universe, Ashford represents the levered play on the ongoing recovery in U.S. lodging fundamentals. Ashford's management is very aggressive in managing its portfolio and balance sheet. They are active recyclers of capital and prudent risk managers."
"We're "only" up 28% since the lows in the Nasdaq."
Uuummm, GULP! Something jumped into my throat from deep within....
AUMN - I'm lookin' David! Not expecting sub $7, but that's where my bid is for the dip that constantly looms and threatens. Unfortunately silver bugs hyperventilate too often, and cannot be trusted fully. They make way too many wild and unsubstantiated claims, and thus I worry.
Uhh-huh, Now I see a new round of afternoon smackaroo has just begun taking place...
You could argue this recent pullback is just to test prior resistance before moving higher. just something to keep an eye one.
Having said that the spreads on Italy and Spain are dropping hard today. Portugal continues to move higher though and is probably the next one on the list. I don't think the debt is that big for them though.
David - the charts are weird...they don't quite match up. The Bloomberg one you have only shows a rebound to .41 on 2/29 while the Stockcharts one shows a rebound to 0.44 on 2/29
I hope you're right about Portugal, my guess is tax receipts have dropped dramatically while borrowing rates are inversely proportional in the geometric sense. I'm hoping Europe has learned, and can manage to keep the subject swept under the rug as opposed to airing their laundry in public and disrupting global markets this time around. Or perhaps they intend to take advantage of the element of surprise once again.
I know someone who owned no doubt a boatload of BAC, which they sold during the panic in the $5's... Innocents are harmed by the proliferate debt habits of others, like sand in the gears of doing business, or shoplifting, where everyone else pays, while at the same time we have computer algo's doing who knows what, aside from generating 70% of the market "liquidity" volume as explained to us by the "friendly" hedge funds and bucket houses.
GASFRAC SIGNS LONG TERM AGREEMENT WITH BLACKBRUSH FOR THE EAGLE FORD AND OTHER UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS IN SOUTH TEXAS
Gasfrac Energy Services Inc. has entered into a two-year contract with BlackBrush Oil and Gas, L.P. for the provision of Gasfrac's proprietary waterless LPG stimulation process in the Carrizo Springs area of the Eagle Ford formation. BlackBrush has over 900 drillable locations for Eagle Ford and other oil zones in this area.
BlackBrush was one of the first oil and gas production companies to use Gasfrac's stimulation technology when Gasfrac expanded into the U.S. in mid-2011. After realizing positive production results from wells employing the Gasfrac fracturing technology, BlackBrush has agreed to a longer-term partnership in order to secure Gasfrac equipment as demand for the technology grows."
Support for my gold short; looks like the public may be cutting purchases - really believe if we don't bounce really soon, we will see a selling stampede.
This is TOO FUNNY. Yesterday's upgrade of WFR by Oxen Group.
"WFR - Maintain at Sell, Increase PT from $2.50 to $3
We upped our PT on WFR due to our company's removal of half dollars in our price targets. MEMC continues to be a company that we believe is far from being an investment that any one would want to make. It is struggling greatly to make money and now is going through major restructuring. Its latest quarter was a disaster with one-time losses that made operating income drop significantly. Excluding one-time charges, the company still missed our very conservative estimates. The issue for MEMC is falling demand and prices that are still not coming back for them. The polysilicon producer is trying to restructure, but it is at the whim of the market at this point. We want to invest in companies that will not completely fall apart when prices go against them or have less exposure to price changes.
David, i always have at least a small short position in VXX unless i get stopped out. I like to have it because it is a great indicator of the overall market and well the trend is our friend in that trade. Lets keep it our secret.
My March puts have been a wild ride. I was up 100% at one point and in two days I was down 50%. now i am back up close to 40%. I think i prefer straight shorting of the equity using DMA as stops and entries.
On my ride home from Best Buy (for monitor) I heard on NPR that the auto sales numbers for Feb were the strongest since March 2008. I don't know that sounds pretty damn impressive. I think this market is definitely going higher. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is another above consensus headline number and we see a 7 print in the unemployment rate.
People are scared, and for good reason, about Europe, but I still think its all about the US. Japan, which as of 1990 was universally believed to be on the way to surpassing us as the world's superpower, basically has gone through a depression over the past 20 years and that hasn't done jack to bring our markets down.
SLW closed at 38.24. $500 in 9 minutes. Now I feel better.
ReplyDeletenice trade 2nd. mark - i only bought the 13" macbook pro. i upgraded the memory though and added the service contract and the office suite. freaking $2,300 for that shit. what a joke.
ReplyDeletei'm going to buy a 24" or 27" samsung monitor and hook that up. the apple monitor is nice and all but $1,000 for that? gimme a break.
Thanks. If I can replicate that trade the remaining 200 trading days of the year, I'll be reasonably happy.
DeletePicked up April AAPL puts. Will add more if it trades 547-548 range. At some point later this month, people will realize that Jobs is dead and Ipad 3 sales disappoint.
ReplyDeleteAfter using an Ipad and after my Dad returned his after 1 week, I cannot imagine that there will be huge demand to upgrade to version 3.
Jesse- Do you still have the Q puts from a few days ago?
DeleteTook a loss on those and rolled into AAPL. Not holding anything else at the moment.
DeleteGRVY at $2.22 looks like a buy to me. However, I'm taking a 1 week trading hiatus. Self imposed to avoid stupid mistakes.
ReplyDeleteYou wont make it.
DeleteI be JIVE'n for the last couple days.
ReplyDeleteI like GRVY but no set up yet. it's got some red bars to rise above. WAIT!!!
Hopefully the law of Gravity is up.
I read that Robert Rodriguez article someone posted here. I actually like the guy but I have to say that whenever I see those debt to GDP charts and how we're at higher peaks than in 1932 the same thought comes to mind:
ReplyDeleteaccording to the chart it peaked in 1932 and went down for like 20 years or something. supposedly that reduction in debt would have a big negative impact on the equity markets and so the fear is that we are going to have to embark on a period of deleveraging. however, the equity markets ripped way way higher from 1932 to the point where debt to gdp bottomed 15 or 20 years later. i'm sure i'm wrong on this thinking but that's the first thought that comes to mind
Wasn't it higher during WWII? That couldn't have been fun. Being the reserve currency compared to everything else was responsible for solving a lot of that, plus we were untouched and sold all our manufactured goods to everyone else (remember when made in the USA was good?).
DeleteNow we have a higher % of debt to GDP and no manufacturing/marketing advantage.
We have to deal with that debt somehow, probably devaluation because no one near DC has a spine.
Should have had more faith in SLW. But I didn't. And still don't.
ReplyDeleteSeveral ways to look at it. For instance, I could have bought half as many shares, and held for twice the price move. Whatever.
DeleteIt's in the good book brother. Try it it works. Seek salvation in money management.
DeleteSYN setting up this am.
holy puke in natty
ReplyDeleteDid you read the link I posted last night on NG?
Deleteyeah i'm assuming these guys are gonna buy the break down here.
DeleteNotice the producers aren't moving with it?
DeleteCC- I posted the same link yesterday. That article is now all over the web. My contrarian nature says since so many people are now focused on that 17.50 UNG buy level, the ultimate low is nowhere near that level. My thought is it either happens from around the current level or quite a bit lower than 17.50 to stop out all of the bottom pickers.
DeleteThe only way a monster rally is going to happen is if EVERYONE is on the sidelines.
Jesse - I agree - see my post below. I think it does indeed rally from here in the short term to get the bottom pickers confident. And it lasts for at least several weeks. But then it drips lower and even the bottom pickers say "eff it this ETF is broken for sure" and then its time to buy
DeleteAnd my thoughts are that a possible natty rally will NOT bring the producers with it (in the short term). I see everyone scared of UNG etc., so they are all positioned in the producers to benefit from a rally.
DeleteAgain, my contrarian nature sees everyone parked in CHK etc. crying in anguish as natty skyrockets while coals, natty producers are at the mercy of the general market. I think many of the producers are already pricing in a natty rally.
I see no need to be early, there will be time to buy the break if it happens.
DeleteOn natty - I think it would be wise to pay attention to the chart pattern of the 2008/2009 market drop (in S&P) as a correlation to nat gas:
ReplyDeletebuying here will most certainly give you a gain a year out, but that doesn't mean it won't drip lower over the next few months.
The S&P made a new low a month after the panic low in October 2008. RSIs were higher so it appeared to be a negative divergence. The market then rallied for like 1.5 months. But it ultimately dripped even lower and RSI doubled bottomed a couple of months later. If this happens in natty I would look to buy a double bottom in RSI with an RSI(14) of around 15.
BB- I see 'Laz' is picking up on those '95 vibes:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/03/01/birinyi-this-market-could-rally-like-its-1995/
Laz often says "the greatest decline in a bear market is at the end"...I'd suggest that in Natty's multi year bear market the end is very near...within the next few months.
DeleteIt is possible - a straight up market is rare, but it does seem to like to move in straight lines these days the market certainly does not seem so exuberant that a correction is necessary.
DeleteOh my....I've been asleep at the wheel. I totally missed Nasdaq hitting 3,000 yesterday. The trifecta hit- Dow 13,000, Nasdaq 3,000 and AAPL .5 trillion.
ReplyDeleteSLW- opened 38.425, closed 38.647. Whatever.
ReplyDeleteI think the action in gold/silver is very encouraging after yesterday's sell-off. In fact, it confirms my feeling of yesterday being just a one-day wonder. So I just bought 10 contracts of April $34 calls on SLV at $1.80.
ReplyDeleteI am pretty much out of my buying power (yesterday's drop in AUMN really reduced my margin buying power), and so I'll try not to buy anything else for a while until I sell something.
It was noise. If I had freaked out yesterday I would have lost a lot of money. As it is I closed the day a lot higher and today is better. Bernank was just jawboning.
DeleteAs big Dave says, "ignore the news".
What's up with JRCC being up 14% today? Is it celebrating the drop in UNG??? BTU and ACI are also green -- I don't get these coals...
ReplyDeleteCoal - I turned my electric heat back on, and Port helped out by cranking up his air conditioner. It's an old trick to get prices moving, we ran the calculations and figured out that solar cells only generate enough power to run a few LED bulbs...
ReplyDeleteOkay, so now I'm back to full position in SVM at $7.40 again...
UNG - Well, the volume has really picked up the last two months, but it's only flat.
ReplyDeleteIs that b/c of futures rolling forward?
XCO is up nicely again today...
UNG and natural gas forwards record volume. Capitulatory emotional ending to biggest natty bear market in history. False breakdown in the making. Mark my words, natty will be well above 10 sometime in the next 12-18 months. The biggest natty spikes always happen after the biggest declines.
DeleteRig counts will be near record low and permits are non-existent. This combo in the past has lead to record surges. We need lots of puking first.
XCO - I think this one's a keeper if it can close above $7.30 for the next few days.
ReplyDeleteMUX - Wow, that thing's hoppin' today.
ReplyDeleteI kinda like being in the slow lane, it's my style, but man holding through this is tough...
Why is FIO, MDR ripping too.
ReplyDeleteI wish I had the money to buy AUMN here... Can any of you buy it for me, please?
ReplyDeleteTOF, if you are a member of costco, they have a $50 off coupon on 27" Samsung monitor. I have two they great.
ReplyDeleteit is valid 3/8 to 4/1
Deletethanks man. unfortunately not costco member but my friend is.
DeleteI have two, and want two more. Great monitors.
Delete27" Sammy monitor - Sounds good. My HANNspree's 22", looks like...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Maybe I should've bought this one instead of SVM... Hmm.... Decisions, decisions....
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Okay, I'll buy some if the price goes below $7 first, before it hits $10 later this month...
ReplyDeleteTC - This one looks compelling... a run high into the vacuum zone is the minimum of what I expect.
ReplyDeleteI will be watching GAZ set-up going forward for buy signal. Seems to be controlled by big $. Always seems to have a blow-off before natty declines and shows good entry set-ups before natty.
ReplyDeleteStill WAY WAY above its NAV. Net Asset value is about 2.60. Its at 4.50!
This kind of shows the level of bullishness in the complex.
btw- I wrote a long essay a couple of weeks ago about upcoming $33 natural gas. Maybe I'll post it this WE.
DeleteI think we are close to a face ripping rally here.
ReplyDeleteThank you, folks, for buying AUMN here for me. :) At least SOMEONE is making money on it...
ReplyDeleteCP, I'm sorry to say it, but AUMN is not going to hit $7 before it hits $10. It will probably NEVER hit $7 again. Why not buy a little AUMN right now and then place buy limit orders at $8, $7.50, $7 and see how many of them get hit?
ReplyDeleteJesse - $33 Nat gas as in 13 fold higher?
ReplyDeleteNow that would be something. I can list a few clear bullish developments for Nat Gas:
(1) higher oil prices make it too compelling
(2) abundant supply makes it in the US's interest to use it
(3) feed in tariffs on solar and subsidies in ethanol going away makes nat gas the clear cheap alternative
The TLT puts I bought when it hit $119 a few weeks ago are working... I think it's time for TLT to make a new low for 2012...
ReplyDeleteMy June VXX puts are working well too. Did any of you take advantage of this SURE way of making money (due to the horrible contango in VIX futures)?
It looks like today's drop in UNG is being bought. Just added 10 more contracts of April $20 calls at $1.14 each...
ReplyDeleteSLV just rose above yesterday's first reflexive rebound following the sell-off. Given the fact that that rebound marked the highest post sell-off point yesterday, SLV should not have risen above it if the sell-off was meant to continue. However, it just did, which suggests that yesterday's sell-off is not meant to continue...
ReplyDeleteI was probably too early buying UNG calls today -- the January 19th low has to be broken before the northbound train becomes really empty...
ReplyDeleteIndices have same chart pattern as leading up to flash crash in '10. No pullbacks below 20 day to provide support should market start faltering. Given the chart pattern at the time, I was positioned to make 800% off the flash crash, but I capitulated 8 days beforehand and lost a small fortune :(
ReplyDeleteUnknown CSFB fear indicator continues to flash a possible black swan type event on the horizon.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=19&mn=0&dy=0&i=p16865429212&a=122127437&r=969
Still wouldn't mind seeing DOW 13200 and a "breakout" in RUT, double top in transports, and double top in SOX.
DeleteBought some way out of the money GLD APR $150 lottery Puts for $.47. I think if Gold breaks in the next couple days, we could see a second big swoosh. These are down by 50% today, so even a minor break could get these moving pretty quickly.
ReplyDeleteThis is the most important chart I've been using for a long-term turn for natty.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the 12 year well-defined downward channel in ROC. When, not if, that is broken to the upside, we will see the biggest natural gas rally in history.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NATGAS&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&i=p19727463953&a=176822064&r=776
Best way to play Nat Gas I think is to pick some good stocks with solid balance sheets (so you have time) and average in. Really hard to pick the exact bottom on something like this, so if you just keep lowering your average cost, when it does pop, you will do well. My worry is that if I wait till it bottoms, it'll already be up 25% before I know that and get in.
ReplyDeleteECA is already up 20% from low.
DeleteI'm enjoying watching your guys posts from solitary confinement. Two things I'm formulating ideas on:
ReplyDelete1.) GRVY chart could be very similar to the REDF chart from 2010/11. I'd like to see it rest above the 50DMA as a buy point. Perhaps around $2 as the 50DMA edges up? Volume is quite low on the pullback which is a healthy sign. I still can't get over that they are profitable and have $2+ in cash and no debt. That's no joke.
2.) UNG - I am hoping my theory on the similarity between this and the overall market in 2008/9 holds. Which means dip buyers here on this "false" breakdown get rewarded over the next couple of months. Then theres a spike lower to UNG 18 next week and then a rally to $23. Dip buyers are feeling confident...then the final leg lower begins and washes out around UNG $15. People come on CNBC and say that nat gas will forever be in a bear market because the supply is unlimited and there's no reason to buy. Then it's a great long term buy.
The other thing I was looking at is just how long rallies after negative periods in the midst of bull markets can go on for. I've seen lots of 40% moves over the past 80 years worth of charts to suggest that we could see Nasdaq 3,300+ before a meaningful pullback. We're "only" up 28% since the lows in the Nasdaq.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in a lot of those cases after a 40% rally there were pretty substantial givebacks. So my point is I wouldn't be surprised to see another 10% higher before a pullback of substance.
Oh and last thing: usually the 1st pullback in a run like this to the 50DMA is a big short term buy. As in maybe even buy deep in the money calls on SPY/QQQ
ReplyDeleteGood summary on why I think AHT is good here from Cantor Fitzgerald:
ReplyDeleteCantor Fitzgerald initiates its coverage on Ashford Hospitality Trust (NYSE: AHT) with a Buy rating and a price target of $10 to reflect the company's maximum leverage to the lodging recovery.
Cantor Fitzgerald notes, "In our universe, Ashford represents the levered play on the ongoing recovery in U.S. lodging fundamentals. Ashford's management is very aggressive in managing its portfolio and balance sheet. They are active recyclers of capital and prudent risk managers."
"We're "only" up 28% since the lows in the Nasdaq."
ReplyDeleteUuummm, GULP! Something jumped into my throat from deep within....
AUMN - I'm lookin' David! Not expecting sub $7, but that's where my bid is for the dip that constantly looms and threatens. Unfortunately silver bugs hyperventilate too often, and cannot be trusted fully. They make way too many wild and unsubstantiated claims, and thus I worry.
Uhh-huh, Now I see a new round of afternoon smackaroo has just begun taking place...
Looks like the TED spread is up pretty big today. The weekly chart is still kind of in an uptrend since the 2010 lows:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p54463164600
You could argue this recent pullback is just to test prior resistance before moving higher. just something to keep an eye one.
Having said that the spreads on Italy and Spain are dropping hard today. Portugal continues to move higher though and is probably the next one on the list. I don't think the debt is that big for them though.
That is yesterday's chart, TOF. According to Bloomberg, the TED spread is barely up today from the 2012 lows:
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/.TEDSP:IND
David - the charts are weird...they don't quite match up. The Bloomberg one you have only shows a rebound to .41 on 2/29 while the Stockcharts one shows a rebound to 0.44 on 2/29
DeleteI hope you're right about Portugal, my guess is tax receipts have dropped dramatically while borrowing rates are inversely proportional in the geometric sense. I'm hoping Europe has learned, and can manage to keep the subject swept under the rug as opposed to airing their laundry in public and disrupting global markets this time around. Or perhaps they intend to take advantage of the element of surprise once again.
ReplyDeleteI know someone who owned no doubt a boatload of BAC, which they sold during the panic in the $5's... Innocents are harmed by the proliferate debt habits of others, like sand in the gears of doing business, or shoplifting, where everyone else pays, while at the same time we have computer algo's doing who knows what, aside from generating 70% of the market "liquidity" volume as explained to us by the "friendly" hedge funds and bucket houses.
Anyone interested in FSLR yet?
ReplyDeleteI am interested. Usually like to enter on the third day or more after a drop, but only on strength.
DeleteFSLR - Yeah, putting in a higher low?
ReplyDeleteXCO - Anybody long this sector?!?!?
ReplyDeleteWMS - Seems to be in trouble...
ReplyDeleteLVS - OMG, this thing's been flyin'!
ReplyDeleteGasfrac - "2012-02-28 18:03 ET - News Release
ReplyDeleteMr. Zeke Zeringue reports
GASFRAC SIGNS LONG TERM AGREEMENT WITH BLACKBRUSH FOR THE EAGLE FORD AND OTHER UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS IN SOUTH TEXAS
Gasfrac Energy Services Inc. has entered into a two-year contract with BlackBrush Oil and Gas, L.P. for the provision of Gasfrac's proprietary waterless LPG stimulation process in the Carrizo Springs area of the Eagle Ford formation. BlackBrush has over 900 drillable locations for Eagle Ford and other oil zones in this area.
BlackBrush was one of the first oil and gas production companies to use Gasfrac's stimulation technology when Gasfrac expanded into the U.S. in mid-2011. After realizing positive production results from wells employing the Gasfrac fracturing technology, BlackBrush has agreed to a longer-term partnership in order to secure Gasfrac equipment as demand for the technology grows."
Support for my gold short; looks like the public may be cutting purchases - really believe if we don't bounce really soon, we will see a selling stampede.
ReplyDeleteU.S. Mint's silver, gold coin sales tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-mints-silver-gold-coin-sales-tumble-2012-03-01-159310
Putting a stop loss in place for AAPL puts at the day's high given the rationale for entry (monthly reversal).
ReplyDeleteThis is TOO FUNNY. Yesterday's upgrade of WFR by Oxen Group.
ReplyDelete"WFR - Maintain at Sell, Increase PT from $2.50 to $3
We upped our PT on WFR due to our company's removal of half dollars in our price targets. MEMC continues to be a company that we believe is far from being an investment that any one would want to make. It is struggling greatly to make money and now is going through major restructuring. Its latest quarter was a disaster with one-time losses that made operating income drop significantly. Excluding one-time charges, the company still missed our very conservative estimates. The issue for MEMC is falling demand and prices that are still not coming back for them. The polysilicon producer is trying to restructure, but it is at the whim of the market at this point. We want to invest in companies that will not completely fall apart when prices go against them or have less exposure to price changes.
David, i always have at least a small short position in VXX unless i get stopped out. I like to have it because it is a great indicator of the overall market and well the trend is our friend in that trade. Lets keep it our secret.
ReplyDeleteMy March puts have been a wild ride. I was up 100% at one point and in two days I was down 50%. now i am back up close to 40%. I think i prefer straight shorting of the equity using DMA as stops and entries.
DeleteTime to buy small caps?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/03/01/goldman-sachs-throwing-in-the-towel-on-small-caps-for-now/?mod=yahoo_hs
On my ride home from Best Buy (for monitor) I heard on NPR that the auto sales numbers for Feb were the strongest since March 2008. I don't know that sounds pretty damn impressive. I think this market is definitely going higher. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is another above consensus headline number and we see a 7 print in the unemployment rate.
ReplyDeletePeople are scared, and for good reason, about Europe, but I still think its all about the US. Japan, which as of 1990 was universally believed to be on the way to surpassing us as the world's superpower, basically has gone through a depression over the past 20 years and that hasn't done jack to bring our markets down.
(still in solitary though)
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